Newbie 922: Day 3

[Furry]

Welcome Furry...are you scum?

Not this time hun

Should be all caught up in a couple days tops. Have a class in 30 minutes right now though.

[Furry]

Reading the early game people need to realize that wagons in the early stages of the game are a pretty good thing. I really dont like how lots of people take agressive non-wagon stances in response to one forming.

Also no one took the time to respond to EF talking about day one being of little importance due to the ammount of information available. Bad ICs, bad.

Day one is a huge key for the game as it sets the tone for how all subsequent days are going to progress. By the time it ends you have a general idea of who has what opinions, an alignment, a few wagons to look back on, it argueably contains the most information. While it may appear hard to play at first glance, you have to realize that if an attempt at trying to identify actions that do not make sense from a town standpoint create all the information that can be used on later days. If town mucks around for day one, day two will be the same.

Panacea is still railing on the random wagon thing, it looks like an attempt to make the players on the wagon out as scummy which is very wrong, especially the mentioning of the first few voters. At this point she seems to be responding negatively to RVS pressure, and trying to turn it the wagon around on the voters.

I would be voting cojin here though due to what seems to be very subtle egging on of a wagon while not really taking a strong stance on it, even though the reaction is suboptimal and looks more like trying hard to find a spot to launch a counterwagon isntead of taking a more methodical approach to get out of a situation.

BaB is completely right about being self-aware of meta as well. I feel some of my best games as scum have been when I was aware of people attempting to meta me and just payed a little extra attention to the subtelties of my play.

Paneca cant let go of the wagon on her. Despite what she is there is an aggressive response to those voting her. It isnt a vote or anything, but the way she goes about explaining votes on her slightly suggest that the voters arent town.


~I just realized how much im posting so im going to try and tighten it up a bit here~

In basic agreement with the BaB case on Paneca (possibly with a supplement of breakdown of voters point) , it getting a "I see your case but choose to dismiss it" response is funny though.

At this point someone needs to force some questions on EF to get him contributing, as he is repeting the "day one I cant do anything" mantra.

Ooohh... and we are talking about alts? Call on me! Me me me! Errr... never mind.

On the fitz v "coord lurking" - The whole arguement is horrible. You can accuse someone of lurking but this is just taking it to a new level which is quite obvious reaching. It isnt being really persued by him though, which is what others are trying to point it out as being. If this was the entire basis for the lynch curently he was going for then yes, you wagon fitz for that. He isnt on that wagon though at the time, so its not quite that big of a tell. However he is right that joining a game when he is busy isnt a good move.

Ok starting at post 108 I am almost happy with a lynch of EF. His post boils down to "talking a lot is scummy because its hard to pick out scummy things in a big post" and "I dont want to move my vote because people will vote me for bandwagoning". Also its been a page and no one has jumped on him for this yet, whats going on?

Interesting from nacho in 134 saying "scumhunt by asking if you would do this as scum", I take the opposite approach by scumhunting by taking the "why would town do X" approach.

Around a third of the way through the game. Completely floored with the lack of a EF wagon at this point, Cojin looks like a good spot to be voting too (yes I read OP but he still does read scummy). I have an assignment due tomorrow that I need to get on, and a little bit of other stuff that I want to get done. If im efficent enough I should get another third of the game read tonight.

[Furry]

Welcome, Furry!! Your avi is adorable..!!

*glee*

Though, Acosmist, I think Furry actually

is

reading the game, and offering his/her (?) comments on the state of the game at which he/she left off. So he/she would have voted Cojin at the time he/she's reading. Amirite, Furry?

Correct. You just wouldnt believe the day ive had though (it just ended with doing a three hour thermodynamics assignment). Have no energy to spend on getting caught up the rest of the way tonight

Heya, Furry,are you completely opposed to us knowing your gender on principle, or would you mind letting me know how to refer to you? ^^* You can even say "Think of me as ____" if you'd like. This is confusing.

I am ambiguous. It doesnt matter what you call me, although it seems about 60-40 that people think im male.

@Eli - I forgot about that game... wow that was a broken game

Tomorrow I should easily be able to get caught up

[Furry]

Stuff is getting a little choppy here. It almost looks like someone secretly replaced EF, we get derailed for a bit, then suddenly lawls is at L-1. The biggest problem I have with that is, I actually am not sure what the case on him is. By no means is he a town read, but this surprises me when the better wagons of Cojin and EF are both being ignored.

Aschom is answering some questions in a sense of being much more preoccupied with self-preservation and breaking up people who he sees as tied together. He doesnt want to be in lylo with RF and pan because "he will be lynched" which skirts the obvious answer to the question of "who is your most neutral read". I dont think he has major problems if any with the afformention two, but seems keen on breaking up som trust of eachother. Im always thrilled when town reads agree that they are both town, ususally they are trying to lynch eachother.

Tip - If people tighten up cases others are more likely to agree with them. Start it broad but shorten it to key points, especially as exchanges go on. At least you guys arent pulling the "my answers are in bold" thing.

Cojin is pulling the same thing as EF earlier in being afraid that moving is vote is going to get him lynched. Unlike EF however he is blatantly asking permission, im actually betting that lawls is town, especially if EF (and to a lesser extent fitz or ascom) is scum.

SOMEONE IS FINALLY GETTING ON EF!!! *glee*

I mean wow that took long enough but at last.

Cojin seems upset that the wagon fell off lawls before a claim, and Aschom now seems to be fishing for town feeling on a EF wagon before he goes for it or not by getting opinions of lurking with respect to him while others have been doing so as well.

nice to see the old EF replaced his newfound self that lasted a few pages...
Was thrilled to see a massive post from him untill I realized it was just him complaining about days taking too long. If you really want I can link to a few games where scum lynch day one led to town victories. Parts of it though are making me seriously second guess myself, especially the part about wanting to learn.

Also this whole modkill thing is stupid. At very most (and even then its reaching) its a forced replace. It shouldnt be discussed in the thread by EF, Pan or even the mod. Ive been in games nearly ruined by this type of thing, and dont want it happening in this one.

Ok wow we are getting someone where on EF, and I will go into IC mode here for a bit. I think I finally understand what stage of gameplay he is stuck in.

-It is always best to be voting someone who you think is scum, regardless of how you think other players will react to it. If you have a read, you vote, you explain it and ask questions of the player in an attempt to either solidify said read, or to figure out what is really going on. When you play for self-preservation, you are playing to the scum win condition, which is why I have been railing on you for most of my read (untill that blowup which reads really town which is why im now shocked nacho is voting you, but thats a different story). Long story short, vote who you think scum is, not who you think everyone else wants you to vote.

Ascos needs to shorten his posts. Im a fan of big posts when necessary but half of his arent.

So yeah, im not surprised with what im sure will be a forthcoming Cojin wagon, I would be on it. EF in his little breakdown moves to somewhat of a town read, nacho jumping on the wagon at that time I dont like. Most likely will depend on how he goes about explaining this.

So Cojin (yeah yeah) is still scummy, ascos is hitting a few bells, something about fitz has me on edge and nacho I will have a good opinion on in a few pages, although he appears to be crashing hard right now.

Maybe a bit more later tonight, more then halfway caught up though. Thinking I just might read through, bring up key points and make a case though, this is feeling tedious.

[Furry]

He doesnt want to be in lylo with RF and pan because "he will be lynched" which skirts the obvious answer to the question of "who is your most neutral read". I dont think he has major problems if any with the afformention two, but seems keen on breaking up som trust of eachother. Im always thrilled when town reads agree that they are both town, ususally they are trying to lynch eachother.

Furry, would you mind explaining this a bit?

Was off this post

Which of the players in this game would you not want to be in LyLo with?
What player do you find yourself agreeing with the most?

RayFrost and Panacea. I know who's getting the rope in that situation.

Panacea until recently. I hope her RayFrost fangirlism can be purged; I'm hoping my questions here help do that.

The first one is normally answered by "Player X because I have so little information on them". He takes an approach of "What lylo situation will result in my lynch", which is a far more standard approach of scum then town.

The second one starts trying to put distrust between two players that have town reads on eachother. Again there is reason for town to do this if they think one is scum, just maybe not quite so blatantly. Like the first response, trying to instill distrust between two people is a bit of a scumtell. He did followup with a push on RF so its not quite as bad, just leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

[Furry]

I'd be especially interested to know if Furry still wants to lynch Cojin (no one spoil the ending for him!) and if Ellibereth has any plans to...post at all. Is there something about those player slots that makes you post a lot at first and then fade away into the background?

Im not always super active over the weekends, once stuff gets going im usually in the more active few.

Also, Furry, if you are so very much convinced an Elementary Fermion bandwagon was the way to go on Day 1, where is your vote on me now? You could not possibly think that my role would change from scum to town overnight, could you?

It is always best to be voting someone who you think is scum, . . .

So what changed?

I dont vote untill im caught up, and if you have been following along, that explosion thingy made you read pretty heavily town to me.

~~~

Done with day one at this point, biggest question is why people didnt jump off the doctor claim. Fitz give about the worst justification though in "scum wouldnt kill him for WIFOM"

This is untrue, especially if there isnt a cop, because killing a pro-town and getting it blocked can pseudo-confirm cojin and does confirm the blocked kill player. The entire arguement is based on that incorrect logic, and even arguements that "he deserves it if he is town". Again incorrect since VI confirmed town are valueable.

Nacho trying to get a cop claim is almost worse, even though he got off the wagon. No matter what the setup, cop claim is bad. Cop-doc results in doc gets RBed, cop dies, doc cant prove anything as its the exact same result as cojin faking doc, cop dead, doc claim unverifyable.

At least a lynch happened. Town points to panacea for actually getting the ball rolling on that one.

~~~~

With luck I will be all caught up soon.

[Furry]

Trying to read D2 is super painful. You guys need to realize one thing, too much posting and too many walls o text actually can be anti-town. It causes problems for people since some lose interest, and cause problems for people like me catching up.

Also, when stuff is nice and short, people are going to read it more then once. I forget who has it in their sig but its true "succinctness is pro-town"

Give me another day-ish to catch up given that I have a midterm wednesday, but after that its clear.

Votecount
Nachomamma8 - 2 (havingfitz, Ellibereth)
havingfitz - 1 (Acosmist)

Not Voting - 4 (Furry, Nachomamma8, Panacea, Elementary Fermion)

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

[Furry]

law majors...

I tend to like things nice and short in the writing department, engineering has hammered that into me fairly well. I can get long winded when needed, but when I write more in an average game then in a semester of classes, with even almost all of that coming in GEs, you see where im going with that.

[Furry]

Trying to read D2 is super painful. You guys need to realize one thing, too much posting and too many walls o text actually can be anti-town. It causes problems for people since some lose interest, and cause problems for people like me catching up.

Careful not to stifle discussion.

Oversaturation of material actually can do serious damage to the town, and usually the game ends up going to whatever alignment the most aggressive player is, with a slight advantage to scum. Go look at most 100+ page large themes. Almost every one of them went to whatever alignement the loudest player was.

Just tone it down. Concise is nice.

@everyone - can you summarize the case on whoever you are voting in five sentances or less?

[Furry]

Go look at most 100+ page large themes. Almost every one of them went to whatever alignement the loudest player was.

Maybe here, other sites can handle it. Star Wars Mafia at MiseTings was awesome. The quietest player (the serial killer) won!

Not something to brag about... its supposed to be investigative/vigs jobs to get rid of lurkers if town wont man up to lynch them. Betting the last few lynches were led by vocal players.

Oversaturation of material actually can do serious damage to the town, and usually the game ends up going to whatever alignment the most aggressive player is, with a slight advantage to scum. Go look at most 100+ page large themes. Almost every one of them went to whatever alignement the loudest player was.

Just tone it down. Concise is nice.

@everyone - can you summarize the case on whoever you are voting in five sentances or less?

I agree, I was joking.

Case on Nacho:
1. Voting patterns on D1
2. His reasoning for switching from Cojin to Lawls - no mention of the Doc claim as a reason...simply in support of avoiding a no-lynch despite the fact he hated the Lawls lynch.
3. His admittedly bad attempt to get a cop claim.

No offense, but unless he has a town read on lawls, that was the right move, and even if he did its still debateable as to being the right move. Ive somewhat tried to cause no lynch once, and that was due to being a vig and wanting the second highest wagon dead instead, and was planning to do that by NK.

Small elaboration request on 1 though?

[Furry]

He [nacho] said he hated the Lawls lynch (which I see as - oh whoa is me...I really hate to do this) and as I said...did not even use the doc claim as justification for his move off Cojin.

1. Iirc, his vote was all over the place, which...as a matter of opinion, strikes me as suspicious. Especially in conjunction with the last vote and reasons provided for it.

Do you think town-nacho would have not voted for lawls for the no lynch? Like I said, ive seen two scenarios over 40-50 games here where I would have prefered a no lynch to a lynch, and both of those were due to me being a PR in very specific situations where a no lynch would have given town a slight edge with my ensuing action.

Also you are at L-1 and should claim, especially given that I am leaning to a vote of you over nacho right now.

[Furry]

Oh and ~72 hours to deadline, will get up key points tonight or after classes tomorrow, will likely lay pseudo-vote claim dependent. We need that claim ASAP

[Furry]

Oh and ~72 hours to deadline, will get up key points tonight or after classes tomorrow, will likely lay pseudo-vote claim dependent. We need that claim ASAP

Dude he's not at L-1

Then you should stop voting people you are already voting, it confuses me quite a bit. I still want him to claim because im going to be voting him by this time tomorrow unless something drastic happens. A claim can only speed things up.

72 hours still applies though

[Furry]

He [nacho] said he hated the Lawls lynch (which I see as - oh whoa is me...I really hate to do this) and as I said...did not even use the doc claim as justification for his move off Cojin.

1. Iirc, his vote was all over the place, which...as a matter of opinion, strikes me as suspicious. Especially in conjunction with the last vote and reasons provided for it.

Do you think town-nacho would have not voted for lawls for the no lynch? Like I said, ive seen two scenarios over 40-50 games here where I would have prefered a no lynch to a lynch, and both of those were due to me being a PR in very specific situations where a no lynch would have given town a slight edge with my ensuing action.

This got snubbed

[Furry]

Do you think scum HF, knowing both Lawls and Cojin were town and therefore had more insight into the validity of Cojin's claim, would have stayed on the Cojin wagon rather than just exercise the option to NK him?

Of course. I know that im more inclined to stay on role claims as scum given that if you can get them lynched you can go back to killing whoever based on threat of scumhunting, likelyhood to get lynched, whatever. Having to kill Cojin stops scum from killing someone based on anything else.

math

No this is if people throw darts. Scum try to kill townie looking players, so doctors protect them. There is a higher chance that doctor blocks a kill then dart throws. I would put it around 25-35% that a doctor stops a kill any given night.

And what would town have done if Cojin had lived through N1? Lynched him because there was no way he would have been spared? This would support the scenario I hypothesized where there was no guarantee scum would even kill him to earn another mislynch (since odds are he would screw up their NK per the odds shown above).

Right, its hard to eventually figure it out. I will admit that. Town playing good though can usually nail this down a bit, especially if a scum lynch occurs. WIFOM existing does not mean you should immediately kill it at the source, just try and figure a way around it. In this game it is possible to even prove it a fakeclaim with exact flips.

~~~~

Anyways, on to things that are not 100% related to you wanting the post-claim lynch that actually are standing out just as much to me. If some of these have been gone over I apologize, but there isnt time to slog through five pages of walls anymore.

-You wanted lawls lynched it seemed like nearly untill the moment Cojin claimed, then suddenly he was town in your book. We have things like

My top two suspects remain Cojin and Lawls...though Lawls has dropped a bit down my list with his recent play. In fact..I would would group Lawls and Pan fairly close to each other a bit behind Cojin.

then

I was about to go off on you Lawls for self voting again but I don't think you hammered yourself. I think Panacea has those honors. If you are town as I suspect, I would not be shocked to find both scum on your wagon.

There is no obvious "he changed there" points though. It looks like more of a final effort to keep the wagon on cojin than anything else, desipte the counter deadline wagon forming on someone who you had thought was town for a long period of time.

-The push on nacho

[quote="HF"On further review...other than your late flip to Lawls (which was not necessary as the Cojin wagon had as much weight to it) and your ridiculous cop claim comments (which served no benefit to town interests), the only scummy thing from your pre-ISO 26 play is the fact your vote is all over the place. [/quote]

This isnt a strong case hun. The lawls lynch was the right one, regardless of what you have to say about it. IIRC you made comments about lynch always beating no lynch even. The cop thing yes, that was scummy, although the interesting thing is I dont think it holds as much water if there is no cop. Tomorrow we need to massclaim regardless of who is here and who gets lynched. Voting quite a bit also isnt that much of a tell if its justifiable.

You wanting this lynch is actually one of the bigger tells to me out there. Your three part case is
1) Wanted VT over Doc claim lynch
2) Wanted cop to claim
3) Voted early lots

I think 2 needs more elaboration... so. I dont think scum-nacho makes this request if he knows there is no cop given that he will likely take some flack for it. If there is a cop and he makes this claim, scum can get some insight into who the cop is. So this being a tell hinges on if there is a cop or not.

All I can get in for now. Will likely hammer around this time tomorrow without any epiphanies

[Furry]

All I can get in for now. Will likely hammer around this time tomorrow without any epiphanies

Panacea and Ellibereth should definitely post before any hammering occurs.

Well deadline is just "saturday" and I usually dont get my hungover self out of bed untill noon-ish my time (early afternoon EST). I would rather end the day tomorrow night then risk no lynch

[Furry]

All I can get in for now. Will likely hammer around this time tomorrow without any epiphanies

Panacea and Ellibereth should definitely post before any hammering occurs.

Well deadline is just "saturday" and I usually dont get my hungover self out of bed untill noon-ish my time (early afternoon EST). I would rather end the day tomorrow night then risk no lynch

I don't like any course of action that allows players to avoid this critical phase.

Unless we get better clarification than "saturday" im going to end it last thing friday.

[Furry]

Uh...I've run through the votes three times now. It's 1:34 am and I need sleeeeeep. By my count, it's Acosmist, Nacho, Elementary. So I'm gonna

vote: Havingfitz

and leave time for a bit more discussion while I sleeeeeep... I'll be up in a bit to continue.

Where are you guys getting the time of the deadline?

Well that actually is a hammer then (7 alive 4 to lynch). Also, deadline is on the front page. It just says "Saturday the 17th", which is already today by my timezone.

vote havingfitz

just incase, I still want some credit for this lynch though even though im not on the final VC.

[Furry]

Lylo.
Scumteam is Nacho and Furry.
Massclaim first, we should popcorn. I would prefer Furry to go first.
Yeah, no time now. More later.

I quite obviously disagree.

I will claim first as long as nach claims last. There is a very good reason for that which I will explain post massclaim.

Also it should go without saying, but town should UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES lie in a massclaim. It will only come back to bite you and likely lose us the game.

[Furry]

Ok sure. I don't mind that order. Popcorn in the middle.
I think Fermi and Acos are both quite obvobv town though, so yeah.

Vanilla

EF next

[Furry]

Also I should say it now, we need to be tight with votes in lylo since scum will quickhammer given the chance in this situation as it wins them the game flat out. Sticking to back and forths with cases and FoSs are good for the first part of this.

Waiting for massclaim to finish before starting in with other stuff

[Furry]

He wasnt going to be cop given the end of D1. He had basically already claimed so I wanted him to go last so he couldnt chose next. Also incase he went for a fake knowing no one else would counter him, he gets caught. Just trying to give anyone a chance to hang themselves as scum.

[Furry]

Someone explain to me how Ellibereth has helped with anything

So is this an accusation?

Im leaning to a EF-Nacho pairing actually at this point. Acos has read pretty heavily town, as has Eli. I need to evalute those reads a bit since EF-Nacho isnt the cleanest looking pairing of all time, but its what inital town reads give me.

[Furry]

Nacho's here, and vanilla.

Now, Elli can get to explaining why I'm scum.

I already thought a combo of PoE and VC's like ten million times. I'll be redoing the latter again when I have time.
Furry: Fermion blow-up made him look pretty town to me.

Well I had the same basic thought process yesterday, but at this point im a bit confused, had a very strong town read on you and Asc yesterday, EF was very scummy untill that snap, nacho seemed to hinge on there being a cop.

Since there isnt a cop, the biggest problem most had with nacho no longer exists so im thinking that was a mislynch target that scum failed to get through yesterday when they should have.

Talking in circles...

If nacho though is a mislynch at least one of my strong town reads is wrong which I dont think is the case, but at least a medium one is wrong. EF was for whatever reason calling you scum yesterday for reasons unknown (or just confusing) which makes me default back to him for first scum.

Either way, there are only six possible pairings to consider and we can strike a few on interactions (nacho/asc, nacho/eli, EF/eli)

Which leaves

nacho/EF
EF/asc
eli/asc

im not going to bother with the eli/asc pairing since I think both are likely town, which leaves nach-EF or EF-asc. Given that EF is in both of my pairings, I chose to start there. I guess nacho lynch isnt bad, but there are better spots to be looking.

Also updated VC analysis Eli?

Votecount

Not Voting - 5 (Acosmist, Furry, Elementary Fermion, Nachomamma8, Ellibereth)

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

[Furry]

Since there isnt a cop, the biggest problem most had with nacho no longer exists so im thinking that was a mislynch target that scum failed to get through yesterday when they should have.

I really don't get this. Can you explain what the problem was with Nacho? And how, with no one claiming cop, that problem doesn't exist?

Nacho I dont see asking for cop claim as scum who knows cop doesnt exist. Its scummy to ask for the claim, and scum know what setup is being used as soon as one player has claimed. Maybe there was other stuff on nacho, but this was the main tell I saw being used.

If nacho though is a mislynch at least one of my strong town reads is wrong which I dont think is the case, but at least a medium one is wrong.

How do you know that he's a mislynch ex ante?

Did I say mislynch? I said if he was town one of my other town reads has to be wrong. Im talking myway through this to try and figure out whats going on.

Either way, there are only six possible pairings to consider and we can strike a few on interactions (nacho/asc, nacho/eli, EF/eli)

Why not Nacho/Ellibereth?

All of yesterday is a good start

im not going to bother with the eli/asc pairing since I think both are likely town, which leaves nach-EF or EF-asc.

Ellibereth is likely town?

Yep, I dont see much reason to think otherwise outside of him being at least half wrong on suspects.

I guess nacho lynch isnt bad, but there are better spots to be looking.

Not sure how that jibes with the preceding. Aren't you worried he's a mislynch ftl?

Yes, thats why I dont want a lynch of him as a top pick. He is in my top PAIRING, but is not my top pick. If everything is correct that lynch should keep the game moving, but im not nearly confidenet enough to persue it.

I'm not; pretty sure it's Ellibereth and Nacho. The whole havingfitz debacle (yeah, yeah...) ended up strengthening the case against Nacho - I thought it odd that my top two suspects were going at each other as much as they were early day 2, but it's not as difficult to explain now.

So its nacho and the person who was pushing for the nacho lynch yesterday using a case there was no way he could back out of easily after a fitz lynch?

[Furry]

There. As I am the only person putting any effort into this, that's all you get. Deal, I guess.

Some of us just have things like professors who decide to give a midterm a week and a half before finals...

will things up soon

[Furry]

So im reverting to early game suspicions

Fos EF

Not voting yet, but outside of lylo I would be

However, in an attempt not to extend this day even further, I am not going to change my vote. I voted once with firm conviction and I am standing by it. I am not going to be a 2d or 3d vote on someone and ignite a marathon of "EF is jumping on bandwagons defend yoruself scummy &c."

Now, in the same post as this EF takes a stance against long posts, and takes shots at Asc and Pan for making those type of posts. At the same time though, he says he is not moving his vote, which is not on either of those two people. His vote is actually sitting on lawls for RVS reasons. His posts for the next few days continue to only touch on length of day one.

Later we get a bit more of an explaination, although in hindsight it reeks of setting lynches up

My top choice is still Lawls, which is why I still have my vote on him. I random-voted for him, and the ensuing discussion, mostly by Acosmist and RayFrost, has persuaded me to keep it.

As for my second choice, it is a tie between. . . Acosmist and RayFrost. The sudden hostility is. . . odd. You were both doing what you were doing, and then doing it with anger.

So lawls for what asc and RF (now me) put up on him. Fair enough following someone elses suspicion, what is more concerning is his second suspect. Now, I actually didnt notice this in my first read, but EF seems to draw the conclusion that lawls is actually town. This is from his second suspect being the ones who are pushing the lynch of his first suspect, if he is really doing a 'second is given after first flip', he is already assuming first flip is town. At the very least this is a false dilemma (must be one of X or Y, when it could be neither).

Will get more on this later.

[Furry]

Anything? Participate in the game.

So Ellibereth or Nacho first? Has Ellibereth been gone almost a week?

Game does need prods. Although you are fairly guilty of tunneling at this point, which in lylo is pretty dangerous.

Finals for me start next week, last one is the 11th. Untill then im going to be much quieter then normal since passing classes > MS.

[Furry]

Well given that it seems that there is zero way you dont vote one of nach/elli which is almost an impossible pairing... yeah you are tunneling.

[Furry]

Well given that it seems that there is zero way you dont vote one of nach/elli which is almost an impossible pairing... yeah you are tunneling.

How is that pair not possible? (Is one of them a pair with you?)

Remember Eli laying into nacho yesterday? That makes no sense if they are partners since its going to quickly bring WIFOM to Eli before endgame, there was an easy town lynch to push through first, he wasnt stuck on the wagon... there is no good reason for someone as good as Eli is to bus a partner like that. I see it as actually the least likely existing pairing out there right now.

[Furry]

Is there any way we can get a slight deadline extension due to finals? I have one this thursday, two one the day of deadline, and one the day following it.

I just know im not putting a whole lot of effort into this since school is eating up all my time right now, and really want to make a run at this game.

[Furry]

Ive got about five hours of sleep in the last 48 hours so im making this short

More reason for EF lynch is how he is pushing the Eli lynch. I feel a little odd breaking down the case on another, but a lot of it is based on null points.

Ellibereth is my second suspect at the moment, again for the reasons I outlined above as ancillary to explaining to havingfitz the difference between taunting stupid people and actual ad hominem attacks. He shows up, claims he cannot bother to read the things that have been written in this game, but finds the time to go through and make up some elaborate spreadsheet of every vote cast.

ive tried making these before, and I just kept updating it as I went through the game. I do use a similar thing to keep track of votes when I mod, so im not sure "spent most of his time working on a spreadsheet" quite qualifies as a tell. Those things are amazingly usefull by the by.

He then claims that his numbers tell him exactly who is who in this game, except (a) he would not open his methods up to peer review or even describe them at all, (b) he incorrectly maintained an existential instantiation of a universal generalization based on existential instantiations when such premises were debunked, (c) he very quickly flipped his claimed results from his "numbers research" with no explanation, and has been reduced to posting at my frequency (which has been criticized as of late), and (d) has dropped his "numbers research" altogether without answering any of the questions put to him about it. To me, this seems like scum that replaced in and tried to throw a load of feces in our faces.

It may just be lack of sleep but...
a) Arent the results all that matters
b) what?
c) Why is changing suspects/thought process scummy
d) Why is this bad? I will throw out entire trains of thought and plans all the time.

I know its not the best case from me, but when I almost expect EF to be voting Eli at any point, its really lacking strength.

Looking through votecounts, it more or less backs up my EF-nacho pairing, although I still prefer the EF lynch. Deadline is way too soon, so I will probably put a vote out this weekend after a reread.

This is going to be depressing if we lose this because of final exams

[Furry]

a) Arent the results all that matters

Are you serious? Such bald assertions cannot even be called “results” without providing some sort of methodology. I thought you seemed bright enough to realize that. Also, as he does not even stick to his own “results” I would imagine that should throw a little more doubt on such “results.”

Eventually yes, but early on in a phase, its not always necesary, as you eventually can back up the assertion im fine with doing that. Makes people react somewhat differently when they are not sure if you have a case, cop guilty, etc.

[Furry]

Am I correct that a no lynch on this Day will be a scum vistory? Because that would suck. What a stupid way for this game to end.

You still think Eli is scum? Can you give a few bullet points as why? Maybe respond to past page stuff I said about you.

[Furry]

EF still hasnt responded to any of my points. given that im in finals week, have admittedly been putting up less that I should, and still have made more of a case than anyone else, something is wrong.

People need to make cases.

Im voting tomorrow, after that my chances of posting anything of content before deadline are practically zero due to three finals in under 48 hours.

[Furry]

So I have a final in under an hour and another in about 20 hours. Im going to make this quick and hopefully flesh it out after tomorrows final

Vote EF

(will respond with continued points tomorrow)

I dont have near enough confidence to vote nacho even though I think that he is the partner to EF here. So im sticking with what I think the right move is. The fact that everyone but me wants Eli lynched makes me think he is town. Asc could work with EF, but I think nacho works better.

We have about 24 hours left in this day, step it up people.

[Furry]

Oh, and this is rich:

Im going to make this quick and

hopefully

flesh it out after tomorrows final

Well, that sounds reasonable, except it is followed by:

We have about 24 hours left in this day, step it up people.

How does that saying go? Physician, heal thyself? Your case on me is . . . what again? That would be a good thing to discuss with people.

Well you are in luck! I crushed my dynamics final so am an hour an a half ahead of schedual. Working on stuff now. Also its not my fault that deadline is on the day of my last final.

[Furry]

Im just going to do a little spring cleaning...

a) I like all the numbers that he gave us. Its quite a bit of information that does have some basis behind it and some corellation to alignment. I dont think im missing what you are talking about, but I dont see what it can be apart from interactionfest.

b) I may be losing something in my definitions but I dont see what you are talking about as a scumtell. Im really bad with words though, you may notice that very few of mine go over the three syllable mark.

c) Whats wrong with changing your mind over a read? Usually in a game I go through several stages of throwing out past theories and ideas that I was sure of to move on to the next one. I would be more concerned if he was pushing wagons in lylo solely on these interactions.

d) Im starting to wonder how much of this is us simply not agreeing with theory. In fact im going to

unvote

given how much nachos "not hammering" post put me on edge

continuing though.

I just see what Eli did there as suddenly becoming very unsure of what he was putting up, or getting a conflicting read, or something. The only way I think he can be scum by this is if he suddenly realized it was implicating his partner so decided to ditch it.

~~~~~

Now more studying. May be back for a late night post

[Furry]

grrrr.....
Im stuck right now.

I really dont think that Eli is town, which means scum is in EF/nacho/asc and I have asc as a fairly decent town read as well. I just really got bad vibes from nacho and asc when I put my vote down on EF, especially what nacho said. It just sounded like very poor "hey im here to hammer" talk, but again asc posted so it does mean that asc-nacho probably arent scum together or they would have missed a golden opportunity.

That again makes me interested in an EF lynch since that would mean he has to be scum, then in comes paranoia of Eli being scum and just completely playing me at this point. If Eli is scum though he has to at least be getting somewhat bussed, but none of the three pushing him show a clear second suspects which is careless if they are bussing...

Ok

Vote EF

Im not as sure as I would like to be, but I have a final tomorrow and may not get access untill after deadline, its a four hour final and deadline is 210 minutes into it. So far ive finished two of three finals early but this one could be tough. If I dont have a vote out though it becomes impossible for town to actually win this unless scum decide to bus.

Nothing else seems to work.

Others should actually vote sometime soon.

[Furry]

no clue

join in EF lynch?

[Furry]

Pretend you're me.
What would the ideal play be for a Furry/Nacho scumteam.

Either passively or actively support your lynch?

I dunno, I would have probably just bussed nacho yesterday if I was scum with him and tried to get the entire fitz wagon mislynched in succession for the win.

[Furry]

kekekekeke

You played very well. All I really had to do was not do anything stupid and possibly get a wagon against other town in motion. Spent more time working on connecting myself to nacho than anything else.

Town no lynching there is depressing for town play. No lynch is very bad, no lynch in lylo is worse. Caution is good but you need to try and do something eventually.

[Furry]

Ehhh.... if anything make your top suspect more clear cut than it was here. Then again just about everyone was guilty of doing that.

Also still interested in what Eli was hung up on since I was doing everything I could to connect myself to nacho starting from when I replaced in.