A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[Percy]

Thank you Mina for putting that speculation down straight away.

No massnameclaiming. In fact, no massclaiming of anything today.

Vote: Deer

Raise: xvart

[Percy]

FoS: Everybody who's not Raising themselves.

If you're town, you're risking giving a double-vote to scum.

Yes, and if you vote somebody you risk lynching town

He plays like a jester or something.

JESTER SPEC OMGOBVSCUM

Unvote, Vote: DrModem

1)

I will not claim VT

unless I am at L1, I am the leading wagon with an impending deadline, or during a massclaim, or our claim can somehow shed light on someone elses (for example: someone claims to have tracked you going somewhere).
2) I will provide reasoning with each and every one of my votes.
3) I will not selfvote, barring the 2:1:1 endgame scenario.
4) I will not lie about my roles. Period.

Bolded wut?

3) is obv, 4) is mostly obv so OK.

Number 2 is because I ABSOLUTELY HATE when people vote without providing reasoning.

I used to feel this way. I still feel this way in the majority of cases. But I think voting and not explaining your vote straight away is a valid course of action in some situations, and your indignant attempts to classify all possible votes into "good" and "bad" via "reasoned" and "unreasoned" is insufficient.

Again, pay attention, RVS = OVER

Oh shut up.

Right now im considering raising xvart or drippereth.

Care to explain?

To explain my raise vote and thus avoid hypocrisy, I think xvart was a truly impressive town force in the prequel mini. Either he's town and he gets to be double awesome, or he's scum and he gets double scrutiny. Not saying my vote is locked in stone, but I do have a reason.

[Percy]

Please don't put new (your) content in quote tags. Quotes are for quotes.

Still, I'm not too hot for CMAR's townleading and overall petulance.

If we always vote for who we think is most town, we make NKs much easier for the scum.

What do you mean by "always"? As far as I can see, we vote for a Hand today and that's it.

I've heard the argument that stating townreads leads to good townies getting killed, and this seems like a variation. I don't think this is true. People who are considered very town are more likely to attract the attention of protective/watcher roles, so it's always a risk for scum (who don't know whether these roles exist, presumably) to go after the stellar pro-town players. If anyone can honestly tell me that they don't think about this when they're scum and picking NK targets, I'd be interested to hear their story. Besides, people can appear very pro-town but have completely wrong suspicions, lessening the scum's desire to NK them, so I think most of the links this argument relies upon are spurious at best.

I just don't see the harm in calling out townreads when you see them. I'm not trying to say that there isn't any risk involved, but that asking players to talk about who they like and why is a good way to profile a player, and trying to remove such discussion means a loss of information that I (and others) can use to help find scum.

[Percy]

98 solidifies my scum read on CMAR for the facts that he: Uses AtE; attemtps to lecture us on the definition of RVS; still believes that he is in control of the game; and resorts to profanity which had to be intercepted by the mod. GG.

Combine this with his spat with Drippereth, and you get Richard, the scummy-due-to-overconfident-rhetoric-lots-of-fighting-and-lacking-in-consistency-or-logic kind of arguments. This reminds me a lot of both Lamont Cranston in

Webcomic Wars

and AA23 in

Open 143: Jungle Republic

- both town-aligned players with infuriating and scummy attitudes.

Has anyone had a group job interview? Where you're in a room with a bunch of strangers, and there are people with clipboards and uniforms and nametags and perfect hair and dead eyes who have asked you to do something together to demonstrate your teamwork and leadership skills?

Well, there's always one guy who thinks he knows how to do everything and is so awesome - he runs in and grabs the straws (you have to turn them into a bridge to hold up pennies using only sticky tape and

TEAMWORK YAY

) and starts saying "alright this is what we're going to do" and you just know it's probably not going to work (why are you already bending the straws that will make the bridge weaker

WHAT ARE YOU DOING STOP BENDING THE STRAWS STOP THAT

) and you just want him to get the fuck out so you can work as a team better. But you're stuck with him, and if you explode at him, you won't get the job, because they're watching you...

Well, Richard is that guy. It's not all bad news for Richard, though; I think he's probably town, just as much as that guy always wants the job real bad and wants to impress everyone deep down with just how crushingly awesome he is. I admit freely that it's a gut read, but my gut finds the arguments put forth thus far to be unpersuasive.

Right now, most interested in Hayker.

This post

screams of wagon jumping, in that virtually everything vez has ever said is turned into a scumtell. "Filler" and "buddying" calls are the majority of Hayker's attempts to emphasise just how

original

his reasons for voting vez are. No comment on anything else in the game, before or since; not even a Raise vote or a discussion of how we should do it. Scum, obv scum.

Unvote, Vote: Hayker

.

I really don't want vez to explain, and I don't think other people should push for it. It's something to note, not prod at and let more information out. Softclaiming is bad, pushing to turn softclaims into hardclaims is just as bad.

I think we should raise the most protown person to Hand, and then they can enjoy their double vote and double scrutiny, as I have said before. I still like my xvart vote, though it is by no means final.

Do you think "townleading" is a scumtell? I've always treated it as a towntell.

Firstly, not being hot for something doesn't always mean I think they're scum. I think some players can lead towns in effective ways, but CMAR is not doing so.
Still, I do think this kind of townleading can be scummy. Scum want to do things to look town that don't compromise their seekrit knowledge of their badness - helping to "organise" the town in some fashion or other is easy to do if the matter is of no consequence,

especially

when it's just been effectively copied-and-pasted from a playbook of a well-renowned scumhunter. Feigning sincerity and logic while faking scumhunting is hard, trying to get the town to agree to a trivial pro-town plan and attacking those who don't as anti-town is much easier.

[Percy]

@Cow

: Hayker's catchup post reads as conjuring up reasons (while parroting others) to jump on a wagon. The case itself is weak and overreaching, and nothing else about the game was discussed.

Catchup posts like yours give me townvibes, but I'd like you to put your vote somewhere. Catchup posts like Hayker's give me scumvibes.

Also, I use "site time" when I run my games; it's the time as displayed on the

Forum Index

page, top left corner.

[Percy]

Go to 'profile', scroll down until you see "timezone", change it, and that number changes. There is no "site time" if that's what you're using.

Ah, I see. Well, it appears as though site time is US Eastern Standard time, without daylight savings, then.

@Mod: Is this what you are using?
(I use this for my games, and currently the US - Florida - Pensacola timezone matches up with site default. )

I am against Drippereth having the double vote. I find reading Ellibereth and DrippingGoofball very difficult at the best of times, and have a more solid townread on other players.

animorpherv1, Mikujin, Migwelloni and vezopiraka's votes on the wagon all stink. Especially so since we haven't decided what to do with the Hand vote, so a lynch right now would be really dumb.

@Deer

: Do you know of any completed games where Richard flipped scum? Have you only played the one game with him?
(Meta is only useful if you have something to compare it to. "He plays like this when he's scum, therefore he is scum" only works if it's also demonstrable that "he doesn't play like this when he is town". If you can't show that, then I'm inclined to believe that your vote is a scum vote.)

@SSBF

: Calling for a claim at L-2 is poor form. Claims are for when a player is at L-1 and another player has declared their willingness to hammer them, not before.
Also, you have a very confused read of CMAR in your latest post. There are several players who you identified as having scummy reasons to participate in the Richard wagon, and you call CMAR's vote townie, yet CMAR ends up on your suspect list, but the others don't? plz2xplain.

I'm inclined to believe Richard's claim. Whilst a good familiarity with the series could lead to such a fakeclaim given Loras and Renly's sexual relationship in the books (assuming the scum were only told, as in aGoT, that certain characters are not in the game), if Loras is not in the game OR if scum claim Loras to back up scumRichard, then the lie will eventually be discovered. If it's a fakeclaim, then it's a really audacious and good one, and given my current read on Richard I think it's more likely to be simply the truth.

CMAR's swift unvote solidifies my scumread on CMAR, in addition to the Axelrod buddying.

@CryMeARiver

: Firstly, analyze the wagon you created and pushed

so hard all day

like you promised. Then tell me what made you jump off so fast - what did you 'like' about his claim?

Continuing my case on Hayker, he has not delivered on the content he promised, just calls out a bandwagon vote and talks a bit to Drip. Not good enough, vote on vez continues to look extremely opportunistic.
(Opportunism on the Richard wagon is threatening to occupy my attention very soon, but I'm not letting go of this yet. Next post I will discuss the Richard wagon in detail.)

"Oh look guys Richard's at L-1 so I'll unvote to show everyone how townie I am"

Classic scum tactic.

Please provide a link to a game where you have seen scum do this.
(If you can't, then don't call it a scum tactic, let alone a "classic" one.)

@Benmage

: Why you gotta hate on Melisandre, Tyrion and Bran? Speculation like this makes me . At the very least, you're telling the bad guys what names they should avoid claiming.
(Also, why do you think there is an SK?)

[Percy]

Hi all, been a little busy lately, but I'll get caught up and post within 24 hours.

[Percy]

Yes, this is a wall. But it's a tasty wall, made of gingerbread and chocolate, so dig in!

@SSBF

: I agree with your assessment of claimtime given the size of the game in a vacuum, but the point that is so crucial is the timing. It was far too early (in my opinion) to put anyone at L-1. Claims are for when there is a danger of hammering, and that set of alarm bells for me, rather than a desire to hear Richard's claim. I just do not agree that he "needed to claim to save his own butt". Also, the fact that you are now giving props to CMAR for starting the wagon is too much cognitive dissonance for my liking.

Also, as has been pointed out by xvart, defending another player is odd. Every time I have been defended by someone else in a game (twice now), the gallant defender has been scum. One is an ongoing game, but the other is this one, where Korlash's defence of me after his flip was a large contributing factor in my mislynch. It's proven to be a very good scumtell.

Kleederac's OMGUS on Drip and his severe AtE in this post are not points in his favour. I find Drip's main point against him (that his townread of Richard was strategic in nature) somewhat persuasive after re-reading the Richard wagon. Still, I want to see where his case against CMAR goes, and am witholding judgement for now.

@danakillsu

:

It is very useful to other players to see where Dripp stands.

How so?
That is, tell me something you have learnt from their scum/town lists.

When questioned about his vehement support of the wagon on Kleedrac in every way but his vote, dana produces this case. I think the order here may be important, but I'm interested in hearing Kleedrac's reaction.

Also, I'd like CMAR to get in here and answer the question I put to him.

Not sure what to make of Unsight. I'm eager to hear more and develop my read.

@Raivann

: Hi! Thanks for replacing in! I stand by my original opinion on Richard's claim - it is confirmable, it relies on a second player, and is extremely unlikely to be fake. I don't like your vote, nor your Raise vote, or even your read on Kleedrac. Your vote in particular - "let's just kill him, if he's telling the truth someone else dies anyway" is extremely anti-town. Explanations, please - let's start with what exactly you like about the case against Richard.

Regarding Mikujin, I liked the case against vezopiraka - specifically, the calling out of vezo's opportunism.
What makes me think Mikujin may still be scum continues to be the Richard vote:

Hopping on the Richard bandwagon for now, 'til I have more time to read through the last few pages I've missed.

Unvote
Vote: Richard

And while I'm at it...

Unraise

'til I get to scan said pages and get a solid read on someone.

The issue I have is that Mikujin put Richard at L-2 with that vote, and yet unraised until he had time to read through the "last few pages". If anything should have been reserved until he had read through those pages, it should have been his vote on the Richard wagon.

@Mikujin

: Do you have any other suspects on the Richard wagon than vez?

@Mina

: You said you'd like to nuke the "tail end" of the wagon, and I do sympathise, but what do you think of the players who actually provided reasons for contributing to the Richard wagon?

For the record, my biggest suspects with respect to the wagon are dana (continuing to post while the wagon grows without commenting on it = scummy), Deer (meta point is weaksauce) and CMAR (even though it was the first vote, it was very antagonistic very early on, and there was no comment on the wagon much at all after that point - giving CMAR any credit here is dubious).
I find xvart, LynchMePlz, I doubt it, MagnaofIllusion and MacavityLock to be a lot less scummy - though I came to a different conclusion, I have a good idea of why they (say they) reached theirs.

@Axelrod

: Who were you thinking of in post 420, aside from Drippereth? Do you believe this attitude is scummy, or do you think it hampers your scumhunting ability in some way?

@Paranoia

: Is your argument that both Dana and Klee are scum, and that theirs is a distancing effort?

---

Hayker still hasn't posted. I'm still liking my vote.
If I had a second vote, it would go to either Migwelloni or vezopiraka; the former for an early, unreasoned L-1 vote after an incredible lurk before returning to lurker status, and vez for blatant opportunism and baffling inconsistency.
(As we may be dealing with multiscum, my suspicions of vez bear no consequences for my current thoughts on Hayker.)
After that it would be Mikujin and CryMeARiver, followed by danakillsu, Kleedrac, Raivann and SSBF in a big pile of weakish scumreads.

---

I have thought a lot about what is the towniest thing for the Hand to do, and I think I've reached a conclusion.

Unraise
Raise: Percy

If I am raised to Hand, I will not use my second vote to vote for the same person. I will endeavour to use my second vote to more effectively scumhunt. I will only use my second vote to vote for someone I am already voting for if there is a danger of No Lynch and deadline is approaching. In other words, I will continue to insist on majority consensus, and I believe I am capable of using my second vote to good effect throughout the game by promoting multiple conversations and scumhunting efforts.

I continue to have a town read of xvart, and support him for Hand over Drippereth.

---

@Anyone who has read Clash of Kings: Is Ser Loras more of a protagonistic character or a antagonistic character? I'm asking this because I don't have any knowledge of the book (Interested to read it, thought) and it could help the town out in the long run.

Protagonist and antagonist are labels that do not apply at all well to the Game of Thrones series. Ser Loras is an honourable and well-liked knight in most regards, but he is also a homosexual*, the lover and supporter of Renly Baratheon over Stannis and Joffrey in the War of the Five Kings (the other two kings, Robb and Balon, wanted to secede), and accused Catelyn Stark of commissioning the murder of Renly.

Flavour won't give us any hints until we see some flips; I sincerely doubt that Loras and Renly would be of opposing alignments, though.

* - This is a bad thing for a Knight of Westeros to be, in light of the social landscape of Westeros, and is a compromising secret. It is not a bad thing for you to be.

[fanboy]
Anyone who has not read the series is missing out on one of the best stories ever told. Masterful intrigue, engrossing setting, fascinating characters, shocking and epic and dark and intelligent. Read it now!
[/fanboy]

[Percy]

I did not want people to accuse me of parroting later on, as I knew I was guilty of parroting some of Drippereth's last post.

Admitting that you were parroting doesn’t make the suspicious nature of it fade away. You’ve simply done the job of anyone who would make the point for them.

SSBF: Scummy, due to apologizing for what is unnecessary to apologize for.
Magna: Scummier, due to latching on to "parroting" without looking at context, attempting an easy dig.

In relation to any parroting comments, DethHydra and SSBF cross-posted, as would be obvious if you looked. Don't like either SSBF or Magna in this exchange.

I like this post. Nice catch.

[Percy]

@LynchMePls

: Kleedrac's only contribution to the game worthy of any townpoints was his case construction against CMAR while the Richard wagon was gaining a lot of momentum.
Considering his defensiveness, AtE and OMGUS and my Kleedrac read is leaning scum. The timing of the case itself may be further evidence to support Drippereth's disavowing-a-townie-mislynch-for-townpoints theory.
Still, I'd like to see if Kleedrac does something other than continue his tantrum (perhaps, for example, following through on his CMAR case) and I'd also like to see more attention paid to CMAR in general.
In particular, I still like the point I made - that CMAR was leading the town ineffectively in trivial matters, which hints scum to me.

I'm inclined to vote either CMAR or Kleedrac at the moment, but the lack of response from Hayker means I still like my vote.

@SSBF

: No response to

I doubt it's points

? In fact, since that post you haven't talked about either Benmage or I doubt it.

I like Unsight's posts; in particular, I liked vis pointing out of the potential connections between ML and SSBF.

@MacavityLock

: Could you elaborate on why you chose Hayker over SSBF?

@Unsight

: What do you make of SSBF's defence of Benmage?

@hasdgfas

: I understand why you don't like townreads (though I disagree), but why call out Mikujin for it, and not Drippereth?

@Mina

: I wanted your impressions of people on the wagon who gave content to digest, rather than just those who jumped on at the end. I think the wagon was largely town-driven, but I find some people to be much more suspicious than others (as I said in my last post).

Some links, also - Percy as scum:
1. Nouns Mafia
2. The Amish Village; I was recruited to the cult N1.
3. Molinero's Mafia; replaced here as well. I consider this game to be my scum A-game, so perhaps start here...?

I can give you townlinks as well. Really should update my wiki one of these days...

Re: Benmage's beat-down of I doubt it. Something about the exchange reads off. I think this is an excellent read from Mina:

If you think I doubt it's case was so embarrassingly bad that he shouldn't be allowed to play Mafia here, then why did you need a wall devoted almost exclusively to defending yourself from it? And why not let your defence speak for itself?

This kind of all-out-attack is scummy. It's an attempt to shift the conversation from "Is I doubt it's case against Benmage any good?" to "Was I doubt it's case against Benmage scummy?", which are related but ultimately different questions. The fact that it was done with such strong rhetoric sets off my scumdar.
Kmd4390 did this to me when I was but a wee scumhunter, and it was super effective (link for those interested).
tl;dr: Benmage's reaction is a scumtell for me, but not a strong one.

IGMEOY

, waiting for Benmage catchup.

@Raivann

:

I don't think Renly is that prominent of a character as xvart was saying.

He's one of the Kings in the War of the Five Kings, which is one of the major plot-driving forces in the books. Have you read the series?
Your vote on Kleedrac is weak. Both of your votes have been weak, in fact. Why exactly do you think Kleedrac is scum? Who is "someone" and what was the "good point"?

[Percy]

@Unsight

: I'm not ignoring Drippereth. I've said all I've wanted to say about the hydra (and that has not been nothing), and I'm keeping some of my more idle speculation to myself - their self-confessed 'randomness' makes it difficult for me to read them, so I'm biding my time.

Unvote, Vote: Raivann

Looked back at Raivann's ISO after Mikujin's case, and found that I agreed. The turnabout on Kleedrac is particularly jarring.
Still doesn't clear Kleedrac, though.
(Hayker's replacement needs to be pressured for content as soon as one is found.)

[Percy]

Hi all, post incoming within 24 hours.

[Percy]

Hello replacements, thanks for joining in!

First up, let me reiterate my read on Richard. I think his claim is unlikely to be a fakeclaim, and whilst I don't think it rules him out as scum, it does make it less likely - giving scum a vengeful kill seems less probable than giving town a vengeful kill. Whilst his play has been underwhelming, I think his wagon stinks and I had a gut town read - his present lurking is not doing that any favours, though. Right now I'm still not willing to lynch Richard, but I haven't ruled him out completely as scum.

This brings me to LynchMePls' case for a CMAR/Richard/Axelrod scumteam. I find the analysis of CMAR and Axelrod being scummy to be largely independent of the scumminess of Richard, and having read both this post and Axelrod's response, I sympathise with Axelrod's charge of confirmation bias. Still, I don't like the degree to which Axelrod's read on Kleedrac matches up with my own, and his support of MacavityLock's vote on MagnaofIllusion without comment or expansion makes for a third example (my Hayker case being the first).
I still think CMAR is far more scummy than Axelrod, but there has been a lot more defence and reiterating/referencing points others have made than original scumhunting from Axelrod.

So, on to MacavityLock and MagnaofIllusion, where ML has both raised a good point and kept at it. I think the tell is nitpicky, but I still like it enough to be interested to see where this case goes - scum can be nitpicked to death, after all.

@MagnaofIllusion

: Your vote is still on SSBF. Do you think parrotgate is further evidence of SSBF scum? Why are you still voting SSBF?

I disagree with dana that Raivann's posting makes him a less desirable lynch than Kleedrac. The fact that dana has done little more than complain about the Raivann wagon ever since it began for ultimately pedantic reasons is rather suspicious - in particular, I don't know what dana thinks of Raivann at all, only that Raivann may be in some people's eyes as scummy as Kleedrac. This is scummy hedging.

I can split the reads of Raivann into two groups - those that think he's scum, and those that relegate the scumtells to replacement jitters and playstyle. I'm in the former camp; Raivann's content is filled with contradictions, wagon jumping and posts like this one - a lacklustre attempt bordering on OMGUS. Mikujin's recent set of questions for Raivann produced the extremely underwhelming response, so it's clear to me that Raivann is going to play the "too stupidly scummy to be scum" card for all it's worth - probably because it's working. Overall, I'm still very happy with my vote.

As for Benmage/I doubt it, my summary goes like this:
It all began in this post where I doubt it put Benmage on vis scumlist. Benmage reacts strongly, I doubt it votes Benmage in response to the strong reaction, SSBF defends Benmage, Benmage explodes, I doubt it concedes and backs off.
I have a neutral read of I doubt it. The reaction provoked by his points was very over-the-top, and I don't think the case was without merit (though it was overstated). I also am undecided about his backing off. I have no good read right now.
Benmage's reaction makes for a weak scumtell for me, as does SSBF's defense.
Also, I asked SSBF about it and didn't get a response.

In conclusion:
-Still liking a Raivann lynch
-CMAR is my #2
-Other leads I'm looking into from today are Axelrod, dana/Raivann interaction, MoI/SSBF interaction, Benmage/SSBF interaction

I'm going to work on a much larger post over the weekend with analysis of every player's D1 play, and questions for all.

[Percy]

@SSBF

: Firstly, as far as I can see in MoI's ISO, his vote is still on you. If someone could find where MoI unvotes SSBF and votes Mikujin, that would be great.
Also, you're saying that the parroting comment comes down to meta - being something you've been called out on before - but that doesn't make pre-emptive defence of such a charge any less of a scumtell in my mind.
Also also, note that again you don't comment on Benmage etc., even though I've prodded you many times to do so. You object to my calling out SSBF/MoI, but not to SSBF/Benmage. Why is that, exactly?

@danakillsu

: Something isn't adding up.

I'm not saying he will hurt us more as scum, just that he WON'T hurt us LESS. However, if he is TOWN, Kleedrac will do much less for us than Raivann will if Raivan is TOWN. In other words, Kleedrac-scum is approximately equal to Raivann-scum. Kleedrac-town << Raivann-town. Therefore, if Kleedrac is equally scummy to Raivann, we should lynch Kleedrac. Do I make myself clear? Also, I would like to hear others' thoughts on my post that Raivann messed up on rather than their bashing of Raivann for messing up. I think the messing up part is a null tell, personally.

You make a point that you are engaging in hypotheticals, and that you dismiss the point on Raivann as null. Then:

If Kleedrac is replaced with someone decent, I'd be just as down for a Raivann lynch I guess.

Now, this is where things get weird:

Sigh. Why doesn't anyone get

what I've said from the beginning

? MY POINT IS THAT KLEEDRAC-SCUM is roughly equal to Raivann-scum, and

both have good reasoning for their wagons

. Therefore if Kleedrac is replaced, making "Kleedrac"-town at least as good as Raivann-town, then I'd be fine with lynching either.

This is not what you've been saying from the beginning, especially the bolded.
So, why the turnaround?
Also,

why

is Raivann as scummy as Kleedrac?

@LynchMePls

: I'm not that interested in Richard right now for a few reasons.
1. His fakeclaim is a very excellent one if it's a scumclaim. If Renly is his fakeclaim and his scumbuddy's fakeclaim is Loras, then Richard's death will deprive his buddy of his fakeclaim. If Loras is not in the game, then he'll be caught in endgame. I can't see a situation where Richard's fakeclaim won't catch up with him, if it is indeed fake.
2. The speed of the wagon, and the reasons some players used to contribute to it, stink of scum.
I agree with you that Richard's play has done absolutely nothing to help the town, and I further agree that the quick reversal of his wagon has produced zero pressure on Richard to contribute. If I'm wrong about the claim, then that would really suck, and I'm not interested in giving Richard a free pass through the rest of the game based solely on this claim. I stand by my gut read for the moment, and the wagon+claim shenanigans make him less of a person of interest for me

today

.
I agree with you about both CMAR and Axelrod, though.

CMAR's "oops I lost this game" is a very, very weak excuse. Ever since the Richard wagon CMAR has been gone, so blaming the lack of activity on the server change is

extremely

disingenuous.

@Mina

: I agree with you about CMAR nameclaiming. Locking him into a claim now, given his behaviour and his breadcrumb, is the best play.

I think CMAR and Raivann are excellent lynch choices for today.

Still working on that every-player ISO (coming tomorrow). May or may not change my vote to CMAR then.

[Percy]

@danakillsu

: You started with an "IF you find Raivann as scummy as Kleedrac", a hypothetical. You also say his messing up is a null tell.
Then, you say you would be down for a Raivann lynch - you guess.
And now: your scumread on Raivann

has always been

equal to your scumread on Kleedrac?
You're retconning your read here. I also don't like this:

Raivann is

at least almost

as scummy as Kleedrac

At least almost?! More weaselling.

@Mina

: I like the Raivann wagon better than the Kleedrac wagon. I've explained the reasons I like the Kleedrac wagon elsewhere, but I can't help shake the feeling that the case has been somewhat exaggerated/manufactured.

A good example of that is CSL's

vote justification post

, where every post Kleedrac ever made is spun into a scumtell. That is

exactly

what CSL's predecessor (Hayker) did with vezopiraka. Let's re-quote what I said before and apply it to CSL:

CSL's catchup post reads as conjuring up reasons (while parroting others) to jump on a wagon. The case itself is weak and overreaching[.]

HoS: CSL

@RichardGHP

:

Question: How many people at this point would be willing to lynch me today?

This is your promised post? The one you've been promising since Thursday?
Or did you just pop in to gauge the suspicion level on you, and called it a good day's work?

@Unsight

: Could you explain to me why, when Mina

votes Raivann

and then explained it

three days later

, this was not worthy of notice, but when CSL adopts the vote-then-case approach with Kleedrac, it's worth a FoS?

@Kinetic

: Do you see a distinction between Mina's play in the prequel mini and in this game?

Now I've done my ISOs, but I'm going to keep the reads to myself for now. Most of my reads are still fairly neutral, and I have far too many open leads and lurking persons-of-interest to start making or even stating conclusions.

As for CryMeARiver:
I'm not crash hot on his initial push against Richard. His play during the Richard wagon is scummy, as were his attempts to lead the town out of the RVS. Then lolwut breadcrumb, and the unvote after the claim is even more scummy behaviour.
Whilst I think Raivann is still a good chance of finding scum, I think CMAR breaks the camel's back with his making disingenuous excuses for his absence.

Unvote, Vote: CryMeARiver

.

[Percy]

@danakillsu

: Your reads are not consistent. Your bluster doesn't change that. You're hedging your bets and weaselling on Raivann. Read xvart's interpretation if you're still confused, but you just ignored it in your latest post and answered the other question with more weaselling. Scummy.

@LynchMePls

: What did you like about julienvonwolfe's post?
Personally, I like the all three points against SSBF - the attitude towards Migwelloni, the potential capitalisation on the failure of the Richard wagon, and the defence of Benmage.
I much prefer ML's response to julienvonwolfe's case against him than the original case, though; In particular, I'm also confused about the "inconsistency" in attitude towards FoSes - looks consistent to me.
The scumteam speculation is much more (ahem) speculative, but I agree that Drippereth needs to clarify their read on the SSBF and Raivann slots.

@Drippereth

:
1. You do realise Raivann replaced Deer, right? You have them as potential scum on the Richard wagon, but say he's town. Why wasn't he struck off with the other two?
2. Do you agree with Raivann that dana, Richard and Mina are scum? Is that why you keep linking that post? If Richard is scum, doesn't that invalidate your wagon analysis?
3. What is your read on SSBF? Raivann thinks he's scum, too, and you once had reasons you were going to expand on as to his scumminess, but he's also town?

A good amount of my content apparently got eaten in the move.

This is not good. I think I may be missing some posts too.

@Mods: Can you look into this?

No- the World Cup is on.

Yeah I'll see what can be done.

@budja: Do you feel like keeldrac is noob town or noob scum?

This is not a question.
This is "Hey Budja, tell me why Kleedrac was noob town".


Looks like I've got the double vote now.

Vote: Raivann

I will use my second vote to secure a lynch at deadline, if it comes down to it.

@Mina

: Did you ever get around to reading my meta?

@Rifka Viveka

: I see you're on "hammer duty", but will you hammer

anyone

who gets to L-1?

[Percy]

Those 3 posts reek of town though

I don't see it.

I have a bigger scumread off of CMAR right now.

Why?

@danakillsu

: So now we've gone from "assert the opposite" to "you haven't proved nuffink" approach, how cute.
Your read on Raivann

has

changed; at least, if you've always thought that Raivann was almost sort of vaguely not quite but just about as scummy as Kleedrac, you did not make that clear until pressured.

Even if

you insist that it hasn't changed, you haven't done anything about your Raivann read beyond introduce contrived arguments about how they're all the same sort of scummy townie on the balance of probabilities whatever I don't even. There have been no attempts to analyse Raivann beyond what has been dragged out of you.
And now, let's put this together:
-You think Raivann is just as scummy as Kleedrac/Budja.
-You think CMAR is town, or at least think there hasn't been anything out of the ordinary from that slot.
-CMAR is on 9 votes. Raivann is on 7. And yet you leave your vote on Budja, saying "a lynch on CMAR is better than NL".

Right now

is the time to be pressuring Raivann or pushing the Raivann wagon over the CMAR wagon, rather than throwing up your hands, sitting out and pouting about it. You have never had any conviction behind your Raivann read, and it shows. Same goes for your CMAR read.

dana is scum, and Raivann is his buddy.

@Unsight

: Now that you've seen it, what do you think of it?
Also, I think it's odd to criticise the order in which a case was presented without commenting on the substantive matter of the case itself, which is another reason I asked.

@Rifka Viveka

: Sorry, I missed your vote

@Mina

: I thought Raivann was scum for his case against me in the mini; I thought he was trying to push the mislynch on the slot I replaced into, and didn't explain himself very well, especially with the unvote/vote shenanigans.
This is similar to how he's playing this game in some ways, but his play is far more opportunistic, lurky and inconsistent here. I also have a strong dana/Raivann buddy read, which is bolstering my scumread on Raivann.
Also, I tunnel too easily as town. It can be fucking disastrous, and that game happened really recently and I'm still reeling from shock...

[Percy]

I find it quite amusing that dana voted Raivann after I goaded him into doing it, and then turns around and says he's ignoring me (the FoS is truly precious). My case is solid (even if Raivann's claim is truthful), the trend is clear.
After all, I don't need to convince dana of his scumminess, just everyone else

hasdgfas' question to vezopiraka is well put. Add to that:

Obv fakeclaim.
You were voting to raise CMAR.
I don't want to lynch a vig now.

Mikujin already pointed this out, but I'm unable to resolve this cognitive dissonance. Turns out vezo is too.
I think vezo is a good bet for scum.

I'd also like to point out that scum only got fake

names

rather than fake

roles

in the mini IIRC. That doesn't mean things haven't changed, though; still,

That being said, yes we must assume the scum have fake claims

Why must we?

I have yet to form a solid opinion on Raivann's vig claim right now, beyond saying that I don't think Raivann should be the lynch today. If he survives tonight then we can ask him who he killed and why, determine if the kill flavour matches up etc., but a claimed vig in a potentially multi-scum game who's played like Raivann has shouldn't last long - either at the hands of another killing faction, or lynching.

Even if Raivann tries to pull the "I was roleblocked" card for the rest of the game, he guarantees that the

real

vig targets him. Only doubt in my mind is that he could be a serial killer.

Or that he could be a serial killer

and

there be no town vig...?
I'm a bit confused about this. See, you also say:

I'm not sure how likely it is for there to be a full vig AND a one-shot vig.

...so it seems to me that assuming there is a full-power actual-vig (and you seem to, since you warn them not to CC) in the case of Raivann-scum doesn't match up...?

Claiming a PR is NOT a free pass out of a lynch.

I lol'd.

Why are all the votes shifting to someone who is most probably town?

It's a best worst case scenario. Why do you think Richard is town?
Do you think SSBF should be the lynch for the day?
Also, I think scum would be very reluctant to shoot Richard. What do the scum gain by choosing him as an NK target?

---

OK, so the plan goes something like this:
-We lynch Richard, either we hit scum or
-Loras shoots CMAR, and we lynch Raivann tomorrow.

I could get behind this. I think Richard has demonstrated that, even if he's a townie, the most useful thing about him is his claim; and my top two suspects get dispatched if it turns out he's town.

However, I have a revulsion to voting players I think may be town. I'd actually believe Richard over Raivann at this point, simply because a full-auto vig and possible multiscum makes my head spin with swing.

I don't want to overthink this, and perhaps leaving them both alive for a little while is the better plan... I'm going to think about this some more, and do another re-read before deadline.

Unvote, Vote: CryMeARiver

for now - in the absence of a solid plan, CMAR is a solid wagon.

I think Raivann should shoot vezopiraka, dana or SSBF.

[Percy]

I also think scum would be very reluctant to shoot Richard. That's win/win to me. We get a vengeance kill or a confirmed townie for the game.

I don't see how Richard not getting NKed confirms him as town.
(Also, I agree with you about SSBF-scum, but I have my own reasons for suspecting him as well.)

Because it would be foolish to blindly accept every claim given. The best position is a skeptical position. What is the alternative?

The alternative, of course, is that Raivann made it up - that the scum don't get fakeclaims, only fake

names

, like in the mini (unlike what you said - this is the "third" possibility). A fakeclaim assumption means that lying in a claim simply involves cutting and pasting what a mod wrote, and I doubt Eddard would be bastard enough to give fakeclaims that contradict actual townie roles; but if scum are given names and have to come up with their own roles, we can look for contradictions.
The fact that you leap to this conclusion is (mildly) concerning to me; I do understand your point, though.

Still pondering where my vote should go. Is everyone voting Richard thinking along the same lines as my plan?
I dislike strategic/tactical lynching, it often leads to disaster, and I'm not feeling Richard-scum as strongly as I'd like - more like Richard-VI... Sticking with my vote for now. CMAR has been "reading" these past eight hours. I sure hope he has eight hours worth of content to show for it
Also, I haven't discounted putting my vote back on Raivann. Claiming and then buggering off is scummy,

especially

when people start looking for a new lynch.

[Percy]

OK, I've had a long think, and I'm sticking with my CMAR vote. Whilst I would love to see a SSBF wagon, I don't think we have nearly enough time to get one to a lynch by tomorrow. Also, CMAR is high on my list of suspects and is very close to a lynching, which I'm happy about.

@LynchMePls

: I stand by what I originally said with Richard, and it applies as well to Raivann. Keeping them alive to test their claims is the best play. I

do

think that Richard and Raivann are equally "worthy" of lynching for their behaviour after their wagons; the difference is that I had a gut town read of Richard before the claim and found his claim to be believable, whilst I had a gut scum read of Raivann before the claim and find his claim merely plausible. I certainly don't want Raivann to become the new Richard in terms of content generation.

dana hasn't answered my case, and refuses to look at the evidence I have provided. I've provided quotes and commentary on his shifting and convictionless opinions, yet he dismisses it all.

To evaluate my case for yourself (which I think everyone should do), first look at the way dana goes after Kleedrac earlier today. When you have an idea of what dana did with that scumread, go and look at the way dana behaves during the Raivann wagon - I've already outlined how his opinions on the slot changed from hypotheticals to actuals, and qualifications of the read / case material was dragged out of him. Now for the punchline - look at what happened when it looked like it was coming down to a choice between Raivann and CMAR, when he elected to not participate in the Raivann wagon and instead say he was happy to jump on CMAR's wagon to prevent NL. Pressure forced dana to claim that he had

always

had a strong scumread on Raivann (a contradiction in itself), but this is not what his actions indicate anywhere today.

His all-out-denial, no-engagement approach to my case is desperate and unpersuasive.

If I'm alive tomorrow, my votes will be going on dana and SSBF.

[Percy]

Now we need to look for connections between Raivann and other people.

Let's start with a

Vote: danakillsu

.
Raivann flipping

Godfather

gives my case much more weight than it needs for dana to go straight to the gallows.
dana is scum, who tried his hardest to derail the Raivann wagon yesterday.
The Budja/Kleedrac slot flipping town is just icing.

I am going re-read the Hayker/CSL slot, the Kinetic slot and the SSBF slot. Hell, even the vezopiraka slot. My vote will go to one of those, I think.

Vote: CSL

for now, due to the Hayker slot, the continuation of scummy playstyle by CSL, and the shenanigans towards the end of yesterday.
(Yes, I said I'd vote SSBF, but I need to re-read and get my case sorted out first.)

I'm going to go back and analyse the Kleedrac wagon, too.

Now that Loras has flipped town, I'm more inclined to believe that Richard is town, especially given that his rolename was "triggered Vengeful townie". The fact that julienvonwolfe didn't CC Richard but instead said this:

First, in a skim-read through I caught that Richard claimed Renly. I believe this claim, due to the reasons already stated by others at the time: it relies on another and can therefore be tested.

Anyways, dana is scum, let's lynch him.

[Percy]

Also, quick response

@Mina

:
My early town read of xvart was in part due to his play in the mini, but I mostly liked his early case construction.
Saying I "softly" supported the "popular" wagons yesterday is a glaring misrep. The wagons I was on (Hayker/CSL, Raivann, dana, CMAR) I pushed hard, and pushed early - even if I didn't start pushing with my vote.

[Percy]

Also, Budja self killed? Booo, that is totally not win condition.

Perhaps he was "hired" to do a job he couldn't carry out for some reason, or it's an obtuse kill method. I don't think we should be assuming that Budja is an hero.

[Percy]

I agree that SSBF is scummy. Something about his interaction with Benmage is still creeping me out - in particular, he takes issue with my calling the MoI/SSBF interaction interesting, but continues to ignore my calls for explanation regarding his Benmage interaction. I've brought it up three times, no response. His "YAY TOWN" from today doesn't look so good, either. His latest post is listing all the reasons he is happy with the Raivann-Godfather flip - in particular, that it helps search for scum through Raivann connections.
However, and most importantly, SSBF hasn't searched for Raivann connections, nor has he commented on my dana case, so the theoretical benefits of Raivann's flip that SSBF pointed out remain just that - theoretical. I don't like it.

Hayker was scummy, CSL was scummy in exactly the same way - his case against Kleedrac was overstated and overreaching and stank of scummy wagon jumping. He jumped on the CMAR wagon without explaining why, said Raivann could "wait until tomorrow" without explaining why. CSL = opportunistic scum.
His vote on Kleedrac today is null on balanced analysis, though, as much as I thought it was a scumploy, but his not voting for his #2 (vezo) after realising his error is far less null.

Kinetic needs to say something; his attitude towards Mina and I seems off, and that's all I have to base my read on. Lurkerscum...?
I can't read vezo very well at all - I'm conflicted between opportunistic activelurkerscum and VI. I'm going to re-re-read him when I have a little more time, along with analysing the Kleedrac wagon - that will have to wait for tomorrow.

CSL and SSBF are joint #2 on my suspect list, but dana is still #1 by a huge margin.

[Percy]

vezokpiraka

Firstly, looking at SSBF's case, here is the cliffnotes version.

(1) vezokpiraka is experienced and should not be given any newbie leeway.
(2) He had selfish motives for calling for a Raise on himself.
(3) He promises on cases and does not deliver.
(4) He bandwagons with little reasoning.
(5) He contradicts himself, especially with regards to the Raivann claim.
(6) He has contributed nothing to the game.

I'm not convinced at all that (1) is true. I think (2) is a nebulous point - if he is town with some benefit for being raised Hand, I can imagine him blurting that out rather than trying to earn the position, and if we are crediting vezo with some intelligence then I can't see how scum would have made such a ploy. Now (3) and (4) are entirely true; (5) is not as weak, imo, as what LynchMePls says - in particular, his argument that Raivann and CMAR were a scumteam is not only abandoned, but his vote goes on Richard, before going back on CMAR. I'm willing to partially grant (6), though SSBF phrases his conclusion interestingly - it is up to players to defend vezok ("give me one reason"), which seems scummy to me. If vezok is lynched and flipped town, it looks like SSBF is keeping the "well no-one gave me a reason" excuse close at hand.

Many of the things that SSBF says here

have already been said

by Mikujin. In fact, points (2)-(4) and (6) are virtually identical, though they work with only half the material.

I see that Mikujin has

already commented

on this, but still,

@Mikujin

: Was your case against vezo always for a "policy" lynch? That's not how I read your original case......

@LynchMePls

: I understand that you think vezok represents an easy target for SSBF, but you didn't comment on Mikujin's original case. Do you actually think the case for vezok-scum is without merit?

As I'd said earlier, his scumminess almost seems so overt as to be inconceivable. I think those who are calling him the classic VI are fairly spot on.

I'm leery of "2scum4scum" arguments, and I'm just as wary of "classic VI" arguments. Scum can seem completely VI; my favourite example is from a game I modded,

Cults of Darkness and Shadow

, check out mipe's play for lulz. (Fakeclaiming a role that didn't exist in an open setup was his fatal move...)

My conclusion is that vezokpiraka has done nothing to convince me of his towniess, and is scummy besides. That doesn't invalidate the VI or easy target arguments. I'm pretty sure we've lost our vigging powers (both the "hired assassin" and "triggered vengeful townie" have died), and I'd be very uncomfortable leaving vezok until endgame, but I have better leads right now.

Drippereth

I do like IDI's case on danakilsu, since it fits my theory.

This is bizarre. I doubt it's case from today was on SSBF. That's where his vote is, at least. The case on danakillsu that he is looking at in this post is mine. Saying it's "I doubt it's case" is weird.
Also, before Raivann's flip, your read on dana was town. So town in fact that you stated your town read on dana in no fewer than

nine

posts yesterday.
Also also, your theory is that scum would be late to bus Raivann. Why does this theory invalidate your townread of dana, but you're still conflicted about your SSBF read? SSBF jumped on the Raivann wagon

after

dana. Doesn't he fit your "theory" even better? What part of the SSBF case does your head like? What about my case on dana invalidates your strong town

gut

read?

I felt that Deer was town.

As has already been pointed out, you actually didn't. Let's assume that it was a "mistype". In clarification, you said:

Raivann posts and moves from scum -> neutral -> town supplemented by the claim.

What exactly made you move Raivann to "neutral"? I can't see your neutral read at all. Let's look at what you did say:
After several posts of Raivann's (though having a scum read of Deer, apparently):

ah bleh, barely anything's changed.

...and asking rather pointed questions such as

Are people voting Raivann because Kleedrac is lurking himself away from being a vote magnet?

...and then

Right now I still think Kleedrac is more likely scum then Rai (who replaced deer who is still scummy etc. etc.) but talking with DGB.

...but then, out of fucking nowhere,

Raivan is town -> http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 8#p2317958 <- That trio stream of posts came from town.

You pushed the Kleedrac wagon hard and just when the Raivann wagon was building momentum, you change gears and he's super town. There was no neutral, no gradual and reasonable changing of opinions. This retconning is scummy.

My book says that Percy IS scum.

My book says you ARE wrong

danakillsu

I didn't see a huge difference between "Raivann and Kleedrac are about equally scummy" and "Raivann is almost as scummy as Kleedrac,"

The inconsistency here is slight, but it's not the main thrust of my case. Let's take for a given that dana found Kleedrac and Raivann equally scummy - then compare his play towards Kleedrac (town) to that of Raivann (scum), especially when it looked like the lynch choices were CryMeARiver or Raivann. Even though he went to a lot of effort

saying

he found Raivann scummy, he didn't actually

act

like he found Raivann scummy.

Would dana say this if he were Raivann's buddy?

I agree with the reasons given by others that his claim is probably not true. If he flips town, we'll know that Raivann is probably scum. If he flips scum we'll know that Raivann is probably town.

Firstly, dana unvoted Raivann in that post. This is important context.
Secondly, yes. This is pretty classic distancing, imo.
Thirdly, if we're in multiscum (which I believe we are - Greyjoys are not poisoners) then from dana's perspective Richard could very well be scum (Richard claims one of the Five Kings), so this may very well be an attempt to buy Raivann townpoints rather than take them away.
Finally, this is one post in a sea of scummy ones. This post is nowhere near enough to discount the case against dana.

Super Smash Bros. Fan

Pleading a lack of time, whilst still having enough time to do a complete ISO of vezok, is bizarre. He has acknowledged the need to look into things such as the Raivann connection and commenting on the dana case, but does not use the critical pieces of information we have today (the flips) when forming his case against vezok.

I think more than anything else his absence through critical periods of yesterday is chafing me. He was very active during and immediately after the Richard wagon, then he jumps on the Kleedrac wagon, defends Benmage and claims to be parroting Drippereth. His activity falls after that and becomes much more defensive when he does post. Even though he FoSed and HoSed Raivann in that time, dropping in to ask questions like

Has anyone played with him? If so, is this play style normal?

...seems like an attempt to give Raivann an out. He was also late on the Raivann wagon.

I agree that SSBF is scummy, and getting scummier.

@SSBF

: Don't call someone out for not delivering on promised content when you say things like

I will start reading once Night hits and will tell of my suspects on my first post of Day 2.

...or should I assume that you only have one suspect?

Other stuff

Torn as to whether Loras flipping "triggered" vengeful townie implies that he set off a vengeful kill on Raivann--meaning one team's kill was blocked--or whether the other scumteam killed Raivann.

I believe "triggered" vengeful townie was his role name, not the flavour by which he was killed

Mod ~ This is correct "triggered vengeful townie" was Ser Loras Tyrell's role name

. Raivann was hacked to pieces.

There are players I want to look into still (Axelrod, Benmage), but this post is already long enough, so that will have to wait until later.

We still haven't heard from CSL, dana or Kinetic. Blergh.

@Mods: Prods?

I am still happy with my votes. I like the SSBF wagon, but CSL should not be forgotten due to lurking. dana is still #1.

[Percy]

I'm going to deal with two posts recently made that I really like. Firstly is the

latest post by Axelrod on dana

. It is a very good summation of the case against danakillsu. I'd like to add one point to the analysis, and that fits in at

(*)

:

Dana then jumps on the Raivann wagon when the Kleedrac/Budja wagon has lost all it's steam

(*)

, only to jump off again and re-vote Budja when Raivann claims Berric/Vig. This is not horrible, as many people left Raivann after the claim.

As the Budja wagon was losing steam, dana said:

I don't think we should lynch CMAR today, because he always plays the way he's playing now, but a lynch of him would be better than no lynch, so go for it, if you must. My vote stays on Budja.

I then countered:

-You think Raivann is just as scummy as Kleedrac/Budja.
-You think CMAR is town, or at least think there hasn't been anything out of the ordinary from that slot.
-CMAR is on 9 votes. Raivann is on 7. And yet you leave your vote on Budja, saying "a lynch on CMAR is better than NL".

Right now

is the time to be pressuring Raivann or pushing the Raivann wagon over the CMAR wagon, rather than throwing up your hands, sitting out and pouting about it. You have never had any conviction behind your Raivann read, and it shows. Same goes for your CMAR read.

He spent a lot of time establishing his scummy, retconning read of Raivann (in a desire to appear consistent, I guess), but when it was looking like a choice between Raivann and CMAR, he stubbornly sticks to his Kleedrac vote and says he can abide a CMAR lynch. You would think that, at this point, if his scumread was really just as great on Raivann as Kleedrac, that he'd join the new wagon and push it over someone he thought was town. It was only

after

I pointed out this new and glaring inconsistency that he joined the Raivann wagon, which is scummy in and of itself.

Finally, the way that dana has done nothing but scream "NO U! U MISREP ME! YOU HAVE NO EVIDENCE! LALALA" ever since I started my case on him just makes my case stronger.

The next one is MacavityLock's

case against Mikujin

. I have a very confused read of Mikujin, especially with regards to his case against vezokpiraka. The CMAR/Raivann interaction is definitely worth noting. I went back and looked at MacavityLock's earlier points against Mikujin, and there seem to be two major points - his voting for Richard when the wagon was well under way without reading, and his possible slip in calling Richard town. I'm eager to hear from Mikujin - what makes me think he's more likely town* is that he was the first person to identify a serious scumtell of Raivann's, and whilst his vote was not the first on the Raivann wagon, it was the second and the first one with concrete reasons.

* - hmmmm, I think I should say "not Greyjoy" rather than town here, and that may be a very important distinction in this game.

I think that there is a little bit more meat to the case against vezokpiraka than simply "policy lynch the VI", but I agree that SSBF far too readily conflates anti-town and scummy in what is a very easy case to make, especially given that people had made almost identical comments earlier in the thread.

MagnaofIllusion makes a good point - none of the kill flavours sound like Greyjoy kills. They don't poison people, drive them to suicide or hack them to pieces; they may drown them, stab them or shoot them (with an arrow, of course). Important to note for endgame analysis.

I am waiting on Benmage's promised content. Also, CSL.

Obvscum: danakillsu
Scum: CSL - SSBF
Persons of interest: vezokpiraka - Kinetic - Drippereth - Mikujin - Benmage

[Percy]

@Mina

: I disagree that a vig claim automatically means that we don't lynch the claimant. The main reason I was happy to think it over was due to the conflicting claims of Richard and Raivann, as well as a very viable candidate in CMAR. Looking at who unvoted after the claim and why is important, especially if we're looking for bussers or other scum. Whilst I think there are more solid reads (see my votes), I don't really understand your shutting down of the Mikujin questions MacavityLock is proposing.

I think a Mikujin-Raivann buddy scenario is unlikely, but that doesn't rule out Mikujin from another scum faction. I'm mostly satisfied with his responses, though.

I would like to hear more from MacavityLock on other issues, though, and get his response to Mikujin's response.

@Mikujin

: Your notes on the Drippereth hydra are interesting, but I'm a little confused - you first quote the hydra as saying they like Raivann for town but don't agree with him, then accuse them of having townreads only on those they agree with...?

Actually, now that I think about it, this might have some meat to it. Raivann appears to be the only player that the hydra has a townread of whom they disagree with, which is an extension of what I was pointing out to Mikujin. Their earlier all-out-attack on Deer, continued through after Raivann replaced in, makes the sudden turn-around more surprising.

I've also found some interesting vezokpiraka interaction from the hydra - start

here

with DGB talking about how she's found a genuine tell from vezokpiraka, followed up by a reaffirmation of the read

here

and

again

and

again

. And then, we have the first serious

scum/town list

, but look who's on the town list - vezokpiraka. Not the Scum, Lurkerscum or even the Neutral list.

@Drippereth

: What exactly changed your read of vezokpiraka?

[Percy]

@Mods: I will be V/LA from the 1st until the 4th

(Hopefully I will have time to post tonight, but maybe not)

I'm sure there had to be more people with disagreed on reads with on that town list.

Like who?

Hmmm. Capriciousness isn't a very good scumtell from Drippereth (it's kinda their deal). I think it's more important to look for method in the madness (which I find very difficult), and at the moment I'm leaning slightly scum, mainly from the Raivann interaction. But only slightly.

Bigger fish to fry right now. Hopefully danakillsu, CSL, SSBF and Kinetic have all had lots to say by the time I get back.

[Percy]

Hello all, I'm back, and will be caught up within 24 hours.

[Percy]

Hi everyone, sorry for my absence. I'm back now.

I've been thinking a lot about this game while we've been busy stabbing people, and here are my top five suspects and why.

I've bolded the most important elements of each mini-case for those who feel it is tl;dr.

Super Smash Bros. Fan

I have a pretty solid scum read on SSBF.

1. Both his case against vezok, and
2. His calling out of Mina for the "skim post" and subsequent poor rationalisation speak to scum wanting to

demonstrate scumhunting rather than achieve it

,
3. His "dead godfather" attitude was odd, and as xvart said, he then

concentrated on defence

rather than further exploration of links,
4. His commitment to the vezok wagon appears weak,
5. This contradiction:

Now the reason why I didn't use the flip is because while he may not be part of the Greatjoy alignment, I do still think that he could very well be scum in another alignment. If we were to kill him eventually and if he flipped scum, he would reveal information for the town in a good way. For example, LynchMePls's chainsaw defense where he defended vezokpiraka's action while attacking my case against him

My original point was: why comment on vezokpiraka, without (or rather than) using the information about Raivann's alignment, especially since you thought it was important to look for links? His response is something to do with LynchMePlz looking bad after a vezok scum flip.

The attempt to shift focus off Raivann connections is clear

.

HoS: Super Smash Bros. Fan

---

danakillsu

I don't really see how I have to be his scumbuddy just because I didn't say much about him, and then said he was scummy. That just happens all the time.

And the fact that he flipped (your) Godfather shouldn't have any bearing on this series of events, hmm?
Also, Rifka beat me to the punch, but this is "you caught me for the wrong reasons".

@All (Drippereth especially)
Explain to me how it WOULD have hurt us to not lynch Raivann

D1

even if he had not been NK'd. What I was saying was just that we could lynch him tomorrow.

Ah, argument from perfect hindsight and perfect prescience.
Scum want to keep other scum alive for as long as possible. If we came into today without the Raivann flip, perhaps we would have lynched Raivann, but perhaps you and his other buddies could find someone else worth lynching, and then his lynch is pushed to D3. Or D4.
I'd also really, really like you to find and quote from yesterday when you "were saying" that Raivann should be the lynch on D2. I can't find it, and so conclude that you are

still retconning your reads and reactions

.
(Oh, I know you said "Even if we don't lynch him today it probably won't hurt us", but this is not the same thing at all.)

Still, nobody has explained why I have to be scum from my actions, instead choosing to continually say it makes me look bad, which I already know, considering how many people are voting for me.

I cannot, and will not, say that you are scum with 100% certainty. Rejecting cases that do not have this certainty is so, so very scummy -

the "you can't prove nuffink" defence

.

I don't really know what I did that was scummy, since no one will explain to me why my behavior is seen that way

:headdesk:
Claiming does not stop a lynch.
This is

AtE

, and everyone has explained why your behaviour is scummy TEN BAJILLION TIMES.

As for the claim,

This is what a scum RBer would claim, yes?

I'd imagine so. Much better than claiming town-aligned RBer, and possibility of farming town cred later.

The choice of Drippereth is also, as others pointed out, highly dubious.

We have to assume after Raivann's claim that the mod is giving out full fake claims.

:nods:

I am unmoved by the claim.

---

Drippereth

Doubting a vig claim is really weird. Except from Richard.

So vezok looks really scummy for disbelieving a claim

few of us had reason to doubt

, and was easily provable.

(my bolding)

This read makes no sense at all.

Firstly, doubting the vig claim is

exactly

what we should have done yesterday, because it was a

fakeclaim

.
It also contradicted with Richard's claim, meaning we had more reason to doubt the claim.
Also, vezok doubted the claim and yet got off the wagon, which is a distinction to be drawn.
Finally, the attitude of "everyone should have believed Raivann and those who didn't are scummy" is so backwards that my mind is doing cartwheels.

@Drippereth

: Looking at your

votecount analysis

, why aren't your suspects the following:
{Mcav, xvart, Magna, SSBF}
They are the most common elements in your scumsets, allowing for the numbered restrictions you placed on the sets.

Your analysis is as subjective as your town/scum lists, as flawed, and as poorly followed through.

FoS: Drippereth

---

CSL

This is a summary of how CSL is not VI, but actually scum.

CSL's CryMeARiver wagon vote was, as he keeps insisting, nothing more than a tactical maneuver to prevent No Lynch. He

really

didn't have an opinion either way.
Today, he starts by voting someone who had died the previous night.
Without immediately correcting himself (though noticing the error) to vote someone else, he votes SSBF for, apparently, no other reason than that he wanted to.
He then accuses someone else of being lurkerscum, only to retract that opinion.
There's the "go ahead, I usually get lynched anyway" line.
Finally, his reasons for currently voting dana seems to be
1) That he wants to test his claim

(Hint: lynching someone is a bad way to test their claim. Extremely effective at satisfying a scum's conscience, though.)

2) That he thinks dana is "the lynch" for the day.

One should never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence, but when a player is malicious in their incompetence, it's time to lynch them.

CSL is exploiting the incompetence = towniness fallacy and is playing like scum. Each and every move he has made in this game has been deliberately non-committal, tactical and concerned not at all with why people are scummy - only the viability of their wagons.

But wait. There's more.

Why I voted SSBF and HOS'd dana? dana has done nothing but talk useless crap, but is at least trying to go the other direction. SSBF is MUCH MUCH worse.

So, what exactly are you doing? Dismissing dana as useless, or giving him five Fingers of Suspicion?
In what conceivable way is dana "trying to go the other direction"?
If you think dana is posting nothing but useless crap and deserves a HoS, then in what way should other people in this game be HoSing you?

And the sweetest of all for last:

Mina, the ONLY reason you are saying the case is stronger against me is because YOU'RE ON THE WAGON YOURSELF.

The only reason she thinks you're the scummiest is because she thinks you're the scummiest? How is this an adequate response to anything at all?

Haha, almost forgot the claim at L-10.

CSL is scum.

---

Mina

I understand why dana and SSBF are getting votes, but do you think that only the VIs and poor debaters are scum while all the strong reasonable players are town? In a game with multiple factions, it's easy for scum to genuinely scumhunt.

This read makes no sense.

Are you saying that dana and SSBF are the "VIs and poor debaters"? (xvart got here first, but it's worth repeating)
Most importantly, are you saying that CSL is

not

?

I understand the need to watch for selective scumhunting, but this is accusing people of making mountains out of VI molehills, and it's frankly not the case with these two. Also, there are plenty of other cases that are developing just fine, like mine on Drippereth, or LL's on ML (more on that later).

After ISO-ing Raivann in Crimson King, I think it's highly unlikely that dana is his scumbuddy. Raivann didn't do more distancing than occasionally ask his buddies a one-line question, and voting for his buddy after someone counter-claimed his buddy. I doubt he'd call attention to danakillsu's slip; the drunk stream-of-conscious vote-and-unvote seemed spontaneous. Not sure about SSBF: Raivann might have improved his play since then and FOS-ed a buddy (even though he didn't do so in Crimson King, but I still think that makes SSBF slightly less likely to be Greyjoy Mafia.

Anyone voting for dana mostly for the Raivann connection should read Crimson King and make up their own mind. I actually think he's more likely to be Lannister Mafia (no, I don't have extra information, but there's obviously a Lannister faction) than Greyjoy Mafia.

You're saying that because of this post, where he votes dana, it invalidates the scumread on dana, as Raivann wouldn't do such a thing to his scumbuddy.

The rule is "Raivann never busses"

.

I do not believe that this is the case.

Whilst it's true that he did not bus his scumpartners in Crimson King, I've done a more comprehensive search of Raivann's meta. Since you dismissed the entire danakillsu case (which operates pretty well without the Raivann interaction, actually - the Raivann flip just makes the case far more compelling) based on this meta read, you should be sure of this rule.

Mini 855: Colorless Rainbow Town

is the obvious counter-example; whilst this was halted for List Mod error, and Raivann was modkilled early Day 1, you can see that

he interacts a lot with his scumbuddy MonkeyMan and lists him as "probscum"

. Hell, MonkeyMan even tries to get towncred for their attacks on each other.

Even if I hadn't been able to find such an example, the fact that a player hasn't done something before as scum doesn't mean he won't do it in a future game as scum.

FoS: Mina

---

In Summary/miscellaneous

dana should be lynched. SSBF and CSL should be next.
I have a very close eye on Mina and Drippereth.
Hi diddin! Please alleviate my suspicions and post something worth reading
Also, I was one of the ones who stabbed CSL. Fellow CSL-stabbers (suprising he got majority when he's only on two votes...), stand forth and be counted!

Locke's point on MacavityLock distancing himself from the Raivann wagon is intruiging. I particularly liked

this post

.
Also, ML's attack on LynchMePls feels contrived. I read LMP's comments on the SSBF/dana slots as encouraging attention on the two slots, not dissuading attention from others.

Vote count 2.8: The

"Brother fucker!"

votecount

.

Hehe.
Also, yay post numbers!

[Percy]

@Thor665

: Once everyone's said whether they stabbed CSL, I'll say why I'm curious to know.

Also, you say you want to hear more from "cleared townies". Who are you thinking of besides Richard?

@Mikujin

: Was

this

a roundabout way of claiming that you stabbed CSL?
(The open-ended nature of this post makes me )

@MagnaofIllusion

: You say Benmage is playing out of character. What kind of character does he usually have? Links?

@danakillsu

: You said that you protected Drippereth, and would claim to have protected Drippereth as a fakeclaim out of a desire for consistency. You are missing the point. Why do you have a townread of Drippereth? Why were they worth protecting? Simply saying "I protected them because I had a town read of them" gives me no information.

@Benmage

: What exactly made you believe CSL's claim?

@MacavityLock

:

Also, ML's attack on LynchMePls feels contrived. I read LMP's comments on the SSBF/dana slots as encouraging attention on the two slots, not dissuading attention from others.

Aren't those two the exact same thing?

...No?
"Hey, you should read

A Song of Ice and Fire

!" ≠ "Hey, you shouldn't ever read

The Twilight Saga

!"

@LynchMePls

: Minor point - MacavityLock holding on to his vote is not a good tell for him; I called him on this too in the mini, and did my research back then. It's his playstyle.

@Unsight

:

If I had a read on vezo one way or the other, I'd have given it.

Out of curiosity, why the soft sell on him, then?

You

go out of your way to bring him up,

describe him as being "very anti-town" while apparently

not

finding him scummy

, and then mention that there are lots of people who need to be lynched first without mentioning any of them. If there are people who need rope prior to vezo why mention him by name and not them?

Anti-town and scummy are not synonymous.

I am well aware of this, please refer to my post where I bolded and underlined the relevant statements. I agree that anti-town and scummy are two different things and made it clear in my commentary that I understood this and accurately represented what it was you said.

I'm quoting this because I'd really like you to answer the original question. Whilst anti-town and scum are not the same thing, they

are

correlated; at the moment, the tactical interpretation of this read is the only one that is clear to me.

I like

diddn's case

against SSBF. Good summary.

I wasn't pushing anyone until you asked me, because I was defending myself.

LOLLERCOASTER

@Drippereth

: No response to my

points

?

Furthermore,

Number 1 scum: vezokpiraka
Votes for Raivann, unvotes him because of his claim, even though he thinks it's fake, then votes for someone else, while saying Raivann's still probscum but he might be wrong. Wow.

Vote: Vezokpiraka

Oh, yeah, but THIS. This is why I had a scum read on vezo. I can't convince Elli... but I think that's scum knowing the claim is fake.

Vote: Vezokpiraka

(1) Why are you choosing this reason, when you've stated others in the past?
(2) Why would the scum know Raivann's claim was fake?
(3) Are you saying that vezok and Raivann are on a scumteam together?

Still, as Axelrod pointed out, the breadcrumb from vezok doesn't match his behaviour:

Vezo: this is what you said then:

I want to be raised as the new hand.
I am playing by role can't remember who is that called.
I am the next in line for the throne raise me.

How on earth coud you make this claim if you are the daughter of Howland Reed? Not even you could be that bad.

Could you?

(Aside: I know it's tempting to pre-empt the "HURRRRPA DURRRR" response from vezok, but I'm a bit at the phrasing of those last two phrases)

@vezokpiraka

: So you read fantasy, that's good, so do I!
What fantasy series have you read where the female characters are all princesses?
(I read a lot of fantasy, so go ahead and enlighten me.
Also, I find it difficult to believe that someone who reads a lot of fantasy hasn't read GRRM...)

I'm fairly unimpressed with the lacklustre move from vezokpiraka to CSL by SSBF.
Something about his interaction with Drippereth is bothering me. I'll check this out before my next post.

Still itching for a response from Mina.

[Percy]

Your metaphors are broken. Here's how to fix it: "You must read some fantasy series right now. If you aren't reading either Song of Ice and Fire or Wheel of Time, you must explain why not." In this situation, how is encouraging focus on two not the same as discouraging focus everywhere else?

If someone said that to me, I'd be able to respond in a number of different ways:
(1) I've read it, and loved it!
(2) I've read it, and I wasn't too impressed with it.
(3) I haven't read it, but that's because I'm reading

Awesome Different Series!

(4) I'm reading it now, it's great/terrible/whatever, but I'm also reading

Awesome Different Series!

at the same time.
His statement called for the cases to receive attention, not for others to be invalidated. The attack feels, as I said earlier, contrived.

You do realize that my first post with the throne was in RVS.

Are you talking about this post on page 7? When there was a wagon on Richard that had reached seven votes? Seriously?

Liking this post by Mikujin, especially the exploration of SSBF/Drip/dana connections.
Still need to re-read SSBF in full. At the moment, gut is telling me that SSBF's interactions with danakillsu and Drippereth are scummy. Here's a post from more than two weeks ago:

Right now, I think danakilllsu is possible, but I haven't searched for connections yet. After my case on vezokpiraka, I will get working on that.

... and especially considering the big deal he made out of exploring the connections, the fact that he hasn't looked into this is looking pretty damning right now. All he's said on the case has been:

Obviously, you were pushing Kleedrac harder then Raivann Day 1. There are numerous evidence supporting that you are scums and I believe the case. You said that having Town-Kleedrac/Budja is worse then Town-Raivann. Guess who flipped town and who flipped scum?

What "numerous" evidence is there, and when did you start to believe the case? The last two sentences are also .

Uhhh no 2 games will ever be identical. Go look at some more games of mine.

And there was irony in that statement because if someone else had done what I was doing, I'd of been all over them. (Potentially)

So have you lurked like this in other games as town, or not?
Also, when you say "what I was doing", do you mean "what I am doing"?
Why have you chosen to adopt this playstyle for this game?
I'm not liking Benmage at all. Put together with his violent outburst (link to full, archived version) against I doubt it on D1 and I'm leaning scum.

I suck at everything in Mafia except for not getting lynched.

Whoa, inaccurate AtE out of fucking nowhere.

What the fuck do you do with players so stupid that their behaviour makes no sense for either alignment?

You look for a scummy method in the madness, as I have done with CSL. Still waiting on why you're so keen to dismiss the case against dana, who is in my estimation not VI.

@Unsight

: Thanks, missed the response.

[Percy]

@Benmage

:

Nor would I agree I lurked in this one.

You already did

.

What play style?

The one you've adopted for this game. I can't imagine the Benmage of WoT-mafia fame posting things like

this

, for example.

The strongest read of Benmage I have at the moment is "trying to avoid attention". Not just in his overall lack of posting, but in what he says when he posts - very aggressive "look elsewhere, why are you asking me" posts and the like. I am liking Benmage for scum more and more.

Can we draw any conclusions from the fact that dana has been L-2 for so long? Seems like it might mean he is more likely to be scum and his partners aren't bussing? Is this bad logic? Seems like opportunistic scum would find a reason to jump on board. Could all the scum already be on the wagon? Seems highly unlikely.

I think the claim has stalled the wagon; some (like I doubt it and Mina) are advocating that we leave dana and hope the scumteams clean him up, but I don't really see why any scumteam would do that at this juncture. Mina provided the reason that the Greyjoys may want to distract attention from themselves, but I'm not so convinced - as long as dana is alive (whether town or Lannister), their chances of getting lynched are lower. If the person with the strongest Raivann connection is not a Greyjoy, then the tell's reliability is low, also.

@Mina

: You know you played a great scum game in the mini. Just when people (like myself) started to form concrete suspicions surrounding some of your posts, there's "boohoo I suck at mafia". The scum motivation is clear - that you are trying to establish some wiggle-room later in the game.

The more you stand by your reads, the more pressure it exerts on other players - part of that is, undoubtedly, because if you stand by your read and it blows up in your face, then you're going to attract a lot of attention to yourself the next day.

As for your question, I stand by my reads. I've pushed many players, and the ones that continue to drop scumtells are the ones I'm still pushing hardest.

So it's my turn to ask you - what was the

town

motivation for saying it?

But you didn't think there was something weird about every single person in the game going after the same two easy targets? Sure, a few people brought up points against a couple of other players, but there was no real momentum elsewhere. Off the top of my head, there might have been two or three votes that weren't for either dana or SSBF midway through the day.

I don't see this as a valid interpretation of today's events. I came out with my dana case early in the day, and people got on board because it was a great case (and still is). Many other slots have been discussed, cases have been formed, but the day has progressed along the strongest lines of inquiry the town has found.

Even if it is the case, what's your point? That everyone in the game is scum? Or that everyone in the game is lazy? The former is ridiculous, the latter is disingenuous.

CSL is the

most

VI of any player in this game (in my estimation). His content is the hardest to analyse, the links to other players the most tenuous. I think that's a far more plausible reason for why the wagon against him has been slow.

(although his link to the Raivann!scum game isn't working)

Link is

here

, apologies.

@MacavityLock

: Related on the LMP thing, is what Benmage did

here

different from what you are accusing LMP of?

[Percy]

Post incoming in a few hours. Stay tuned!

[Percy]

Hi VP! Sorry about your apartment

1. Setup and flavour speculation

I'm pretty sure we're dealing with the Lannisters and Greyjoys as scumteams, along with a SK or possibly a vig - the two "hacked to pieces" kills have both been on scum, and have been on one of each of the known scumteams. Three scumteams doesn't make much sense flavour-wise, as of the five factions, we've had flips from each. No Stark has flipped, but their allies (House Umber is sworn to House Stark, Jaqen was indebted to Arya) have flipped town. The Baratheons (Stannis and Renly) are both town. So I'm pretty confident that we have a lone killer of indeterminate alignment, and two scumteams.

I think this is worth claiming now, and I see that hasdgfas ignored Mina's question.

LynchMePls was the master of the Kingsguard, and he was able to recruit five players to a QT. The players he invited were:
-Myself
-Mina
-hasdgfas
-Drippereth
-julienvonwolfe

julienvonwolfe was a last-minute recruit to the Kingsguard. Drippereth and LynchMePls are now also dead. Thus only three of us are left.

Now as Mina hinted, two of the Kingsguard kills were by Lannisters. Scum recruited to Kingsguard would want to off the Kingsguard as soon as possible. I'll go into more detail throughout my post.

2. Stepping Forward + Locke's result

Step Forward

Firstly, I do not know why Locke believes I am scum. I am willing to claim my role name, if that's the reason, as my character's loyalties are opaque at the best of times.

In fact, I'm going to do that now, since I may lose a breadcrumb if everyone else in the Kingsguard dies.

I'm

Lady Melisandre of Asshai

. I breadcrumbed both in the thread:

@Benmage:

Why you gotta hate on Melisandre, Tyrion and Bran? Speculation like this makes me . At the very least, you're telling the bad guys what names they should avoid claiming.

(Not a great breadcrumb, but my name did come up...)
...and in the Kingsguard QT:

By way of softclaim, I think the scumteam is going to be the Lannisters and the Greyjoys.

I knew that the Stannis faction were not scum. This is my better breadcrumb, as Percy-scum would have been risking this coming back to bite him if the Stannis faction was anti-town. But that's WIFOM, I know.

I'm not going to claim my role at this time. I am, however, pro-town. Other than that, I can provide no further information (eg I am not a miller, as far as I know).

An investigation of me does have some benefits; they will clear up whatever is going on with Locke's information, and will make people paranoid about a scum hand stfu. However, I think that the use of the investigation on me (and subsequent confirmation) will result in my being poisoned, chopped into bits and thrown into the sea for good measure. The scum will kill me the first chance they get, because having a

confirmed

doublevoter will make things far too difficult for them.

The fact is that there are (from your perspective, gentle reader) at least two scum factions I'm not a part of who will want to see me dead before endgame. Arguments that they'll hope townie paranoia will consume everybody for a mislynch in LyLo are flawed - it's too big a risk for scum, imo, to hope the town takes care of me. I knew when I said I wanted the job that I'd have to cope with smears and extra scrutiny, but if Benmage is right and the scum are hoping that the town say "wtf wtf the Hand lives", then isn't it natural to assume that the scum are currently trying to encourage that paranoia?

I think the investigation will be better used elsewhere; I for one have a candidate, which I will get to later.

We should dayvig early-ish, so we have the rest of today to discuss the connections, also.

3. Wagon analysis

Let's look at this point in the vote count:

Danakillsu (10) - Percy, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP, xvart, LynchMePls, Vezokpiraka, Benmage, MagnaofIllusion

CSL (3) - Percy, Mina, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Super Smash Bros. Fan (6) - hasdgfas, I Doubt it, Rifka Viveka, MacavityLock, diddin
MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora
LynchMePls (1) -Unsight
Vezipiraka (1) - Danakillsu
Not voting to Lynch (1) - Drippereth

My theory is that the SSBF-pushers were more likely to be Lannisters, given it was their godfather on the chopping block. I raised this theory in the Kingsguard QT, and turns out I was right with I doubt it. I'm going to re-read the others ASAP. Further evidence that SSBF is not a Lannister, also.

4. Stabbing CSL

I said I'd explain once everyone had claimed, but as far as I can tell not everyone has claimed.

People who stabbed CSL:
-Percy
-Thor665
-LynchMePls
-Rifka Viveka
-MagnaofIllusion
-Mikujin
-Axelrod?

People who did not stab CSL:
-CSL
-danakillsu
-Benmage
-xvart?
-Locke Lamora
-vezokpiraka

People who haven't said whether they stabbed CSL or not (I think - my flick through the game was fast, please correct me if I'm wrong):
-MacavityLock
-Unsight
-Super Smash Bros. Fan
-diddin
-RichardGHP
-hasdgfas

As for my current case against CSL, it hasn't really moved on much from my case from mid D2. Still,

We kill dana today, you can have at me tomorrow.

Does this offer still stand?

Excuse me? Why didn't you hammer dana, since he's the closest to a lynch, and deadline is practically BREATHING DOWN OUR NECKS?!?

If dana is scum, I'd keep a close eye on you, Mina.

1) This is hilarious, because CSL never joined the dana mob. And yet even though deadline was BREATHING DOWN OUR NECKS, he didn't hammer in that post in which he berated me for hammering.

2) That last part makes him a possible Lannister who knows what dana will flip.

Struck out the bad argument.
Interesting interaction. In particular, I don't think CSL is likely Lannister, looking at his dana interaction.

Hmmm.

5. Vezokpiraka

The more I think about vezokpiraka, the less I like him. I've already noted just how bizarre it is to claim "next in line to the throne" as a motivation to be raised to Hand, especially when you're Meera Reed of all things. It makes absolutely no sense.

"Next in line to the throne" means one of the following:
{Tommen Baratheon, Stannis Baratheon, Renly Baratheon}
...depending on what camp you're in. Now Richard=Renly, Drippereth=Stannis, so that leaves vezokpiraka=Tommen.
(hasdgfas pointed out in the QT that it's actually Tommen, not Joffrey, who is "next in line" at the beginning of

A Clash of Kings

. Tommen is Lannister-aligned.)

My intent is to kill vezok unless town can explain to me a better kill option.

Strong agree. Go Grey Wind, get 'im, boy!

6. SSBF

Re-reading I doubt it, I find it nearly impossible for SSBF to be a Lannister.

I think he's a Greyjoy, as shown by his reluctance to vote Raivann and just his overall scumminess.

Strong agree. It also makes sense, given that he wagonned vezok so hard, and my current thoughts put vezok in the Lannister camp.

Also, note:

So what did Julien do?

Well, in his 8 posts, he went VERY hard after one person: SSBF.

I believe this strengthens the case against SSBF.

However, if SSBF flips town, I'd be willing to say that at least one of Mina or hasdgfas are very good candidates for Lannister. That's the only other reason I can see for why julienvonwolfe was killed so early - because he was a recruit to the Kingsguard.

I think that SSBF should be nominated to prove himself instead of lynched. Right now, pretty much everyone would be okay with lynching him.

He's also been the counterwagon to a Mafia godfather

, and has links to the other flipped godfather. So it would be a good idea to have his alignment settled once and for all, and then concentrate on the other players in the game. Not only has everyone taken a stand on him, but afterwards, we can forget about him and start a fresh set of mobs to analyze. If he flips scum at the end of the day, then he gets "hacked to pieces" that night. But if he flips town, then we save ourselves what was a guaranteed mislynch.

The bolded applies just as well to Mina as SSBF, and assumed the "hacked to pieces" killer would want to kill SSBF-scum, but overall this is goodposting.

Also, his "Tell me how many shots you have!" question is scummy to the maxxxxxx, and his first question of the day is just so weird.

@SSBF

: Why did you ask whether I can facilitate a double-lynch?

I think SSBF should be our target for Investigation. I think it will provide much more useful information to the town than an investigation on me.

Summary so far: vezok should be daykilled ASAP, SSBF should be investigated.

So now I'm going to look for two more people to vote for.

One is

Vote: CSL

, for reasons as above.

7. Benmage

I never voted for him to be hand.

This is the second time you've said this. Why is it important for you to establish this?

I'm looking over Dana's posts today. And I find myself mostly ambivilent about them. They are not overtly scummy per se, but at the same time, don't have that "townie shining through" quality about them either. Dana is clearly disgruntled, but whether disgruntled town or scum is kind of up in the air. I'm not moving my vote because I'd still be satisfied with this lynch today, I don't like the claim much and Dana's play around the Raivann lynch still looks bad, but I'm also going to try and see if there's anyone who I'd really like to lynch more before the deadline hits.

Kinda feeling similar sentiment with re-readin since the stabbing...But I'm uncertain.

Hmm. I have a stronger gut-scum read of Benmage than Axelrod in this exchange, but scum on both.

Since we can now agree that the reason is

to hide a potential scum read of mine

. How scummy of a move by me to withhold this do you think it is?

Just wanted to point out that this wasn't the point of the question LMP was asking you. It was that, as scum, not claiming who you stabbed prevents you from locking into a scumread, which is a good thing for scum - not that you might have a motive to hide an existant scumread.

I'm running out of time. I have to get back to my research, and this post is long enough. I'm going to re-read Benmage ASAP and get on the wagon analysis I was talking about.

8. Mina

(The only point I can hold against Percy is that other than Richard early on D1, I don't think there's been a single popular lynch he hasn't agreed with.)

I think my cases are good, and I make them popular
See, for example, the dana wagon.

I'm ambivalent about Mina. Need to re-read and re-think.

Current persons of interest:
CSL, vezokpiraka, Mina, hasdgfas, Benmage, Super Smash Bros. Fan.

I'm going to be super-busy this weekend; I will try to get something together on Saturday night, but if not that it will have to wait for Monday.

[Percy]

Just a quick reply to Benmage:

Why so long to comment here, cause of dana's flip? You think I'm a lannister...Lol, did anyone campaign dan's lynching more than I did? WOW, so glad you're hand and probably not getting confirmed (insert massive sarcasm)

Yes, someone campaigned for dana's lynching more than you - me. You already said as much.
Your push of dana was pretty weak, actually. A lot of other people helped me develop the case, but you didn't. If you'd like to link to a post where you were pushing dana particularly hard, I'd be happy to see it, but I can't find it in your ISO.
You could have easily decided to jettison dana early on and bus for town cred. I'm going to do a full re-read to be sure, but claiming the

greatest

responsibility for the dana wagon is majorly scummy.

Thanks for reitierating what was already known .. I was asking how scummy of a move that is.

OK, it's 4.53+π scumpoints. Thanks for admitting that you did something scummy, too.

FYI Melisandre the killer of Renly, does not scream town to me.

Yeah, except she didn't hack him to pieces, and despises the Lannisters as much as she despises the Greyjoys. Nice job buddy.

And I'll get to you when I get to you. You sure spammed the crap out of the thread at the end of the day, it's going to take me a while.

@diddin

: Oh yeah, thanks.

[Percy]

This game was so much fun. Nice work there, mods! And I agree, the flavour was fantastic, and if at least one more person reads the awesomeness of GRRM then you've done very well.

The events were very cool, and the roles seem well balanced, if a little town-sided. This may be me bawwwing about the fact that I got copped, but them's the breaks. I knew when I went for Hand that my life would be short, and I'm just glad my read on dana was correct. Making him sound like Greyjoy was so awesome.

Thanks to my scumteam, especially Magna - nice work staying afloat and securing a win for us! I'm glad you played it the way you did; defecting risked a town win, and a "draw" is a lot better than letting the town come away with a victory.

Props particularly to Mina, you were a great townie.

Also, yeah, I'm with the others saying "OMG I can't believe Macavitar wasn't lynched". Excellent fakeclaim, guys! I'll be seconding your nom in the Scummies thread.

Thanks again mods, and yay scum! Looking forward to full reveal.

[Percy]

The better I get at Mafia the more I realize how little I know.

QFT, right there.

And the WIFOM paralysis is familiar to me as well. Don't worry, I think of mafia like a 70/30 thing - there is rarely good reason to be more than 70% sure someone is scum, and sometimes your luck is bad, but good players do better more often.

I can understand why knowing flavour should be an advantage in some games, but usually there is more than one "flavour expert" in each game, and they keep each other in check. It's more an issue for fakeclaiming scum, as we saw in this game. I (personally, in a very biased fashion) would have preferred for the cop to not be a namecop, as I would have been able to work around a cop guilty much better than a namecop disparity...

(Also, Melisandre is a

terrible

fakeclaim! )

Thanks to Faraday and Seacore for a great game. It is one of my favourites.

[Percy]

Oh, and I was just asked what I would have done in MoI's position, and I thought I'd copy my response here, for relevance.

"Oh man, that's so hard. I tried to think about it, and my head exploded.

See, I like VP Baltar and MacavityLock, I've got a lot of respect for them as players. And for some reason I think this should influence my decision!

But trying to be objective, I think I would have gone along with the plan. If they did defect, I could at least console myself with the knowledge that the town lost.

It's a hair's breadth worth of difference between the choices, though. Oh man."

I'm glad it worked out the way it did. The alternatives (all three) are all worse, from my perspective.