Open 223 - Bird 7/The Jedi Assassins - Game Over!

[Budja]

Every knowing I was replacing him, I think I think a lot like this OpposingForce guy .
Liked his SSBF pressure. (To start, SSBF ended up mostly leaked newb-tells not scum-tells).

Skimming is a laziness tell (I tend to skim a bit when not lazy TBH, not one for that kind of fine detail).
Anything else to the case on my predecessor (and now me).

I don't know how, but the whole casual vibe from NS's hammer/response, really make me think not scum.
Karma, button look ok.
so..

vote: Horror

, opportunistic vibes.

[Budja]

Also, its massclaim time!

[Budja]

EDWOP: (I'm not the cop.)

[Budja]

Last check before bed.
Claiming is necessary before any lynching.
Narrowing down suspects and all.

Even if you are dead-set on lynching me (although I have yet to see an actual (decent) reason), you should be able to see that.

[Budja]

I don't get it. Its perfectly logical.

My logic:
With 5 players remaining, cop can clear 2, giving a 2/3 chance of hitting scum. Easier to find connections, etc. Narrow down the odds.

Scenario 1:
Cop doesn't claim.
2/5 base chance of hitting scum.
Then either a. 1/3 base chance cop dies at night leaving no-one clear. or b. town victory

Scenario 2:
Cop claims.
2/3 base chance of hitting scum.
Cop dies, cleared townie survives.
1/2 base chance of victory.

Factor in actual scum-hunting for connections and 2 is the better bet. I doubt NS and horror would be scum together. Me/Button would be similarly unlikely.

If I were scum, I would have kept my mouth shut. Hell, I would have claimed cop.

[Budja]

Bleh, I guess Karma/Horror or Karma/Button as the scum. Either that or I'm completely of the deep end with my logic (which I don't see).

You can label that as WIFOM, but it doesn't change the fact that it isn't in scum's best interest to push a cop claim rather than looking for "cop tells".

2/3 chance of town victory

Invalid maths!

[Budja]

Uh, How what exactly?

[Budja]

scum lynched today
1/3 chance of scum hitting cop
if cop not hit => scum counterclaims, 1/2 base chance (although scum have a fair chance of screwing up so you)
if cop hit => 1/3 base chance

1/3*1/3 + 2/3*1/2 = 0.44 although if scum screw up could be 0.77.

In doing that, I found a point I didn't add before (which I ought to have remembered in the first place really).
If cop doesn't claim today, they will be counterclaimed tomorrow anyway.

--

Now, I'm not scum, I don't feel I look scummy, you have no case on me, the claiming thing is not bad, etc...
I've kinda given my ideas as to who I think scum is.

I feel Karma should know better, but I accept that may just be frustration on my part. Still "gut", so second pick.
Horror is still my first pick for scum as before.

I'm pretty sure that's everything I've got. Your move.

[Budja]

NS is def. town now.
When horror returns I'll know if he is scum or not pretty quickly too .

[Budja]

It better have being scum pushing for my lynch.

[Budja]

Bingo ^.

[Budja]

I told you!!