Newbie 980 ~ Game Over

[Beefster]

SO MANY SEs!!!!

Vote: BagSquad

for being the first to have posted without getting a vote. Highly suspicious.

[Beefster]

MOD: a2rudeboy switched his vote over to millar13

Hmm. That might have been the first real vote. I'm gonna wait it out a bit to see where this goes. The only time I blind vote is during the RVS.

I'd post more, but I have to help clean the house.

[Beefster]

See my wiki page for more detail.

I have 4 games under my belt- one of which I replaced into. I was in 2 others which are ongoing.

a2: I don't think your suspicions are entirely valid yet with as sparse of information as we have.

Unvote

, since we seem to be coming out of the RVS.

I like this Ninja'd prevention thing. I tend to spend far too long writing my posts.

[Beefster]

millar: Don't be a dick...
RVS rarely lasts more than a couple pages. In this case, the rest of the town has come to the consensus to end the RVS- thus, it's basically over. Your apparent want to prolong the RVS is anti-town and is beginning to come off as scummy.

a2: I was referring to your suspicions on millar.

[Beefster]

Exactly. I've played with VIs in about half of the Newbie games I've been in. They all ended up being VTs. This really just means that their behavior is not an indication of alignment, as murph said. It doesn't alleviate the suspicions I have on millar. He's dodging the one and only random question and attempting to prolong the RVS.

We really should get into more useful discussion.

[Beefster]

Hello, Haylen.

Thanks for replacing millar.

Nice to meet you. Much better greeting.

She speaks the truth. Early voting promotes discussion. It's a good enough reason for me right now.

[Beefster]

Vote Vamparific

for attempting to prolong the RVS. (lol, irony)

[Beefster]

You can still teach as an SE if you want to. If you don't mind, Haylen, I'll be more or less shadowing you. (to learn how to teach)
I'm

technically

qualified to be an IC, but because I replaced out of one of my games, I'm waiting for another game to finish before I apply.

Nexus: the experience question is very common in Newbie games- and really there's no reason to

not

answer it. You're more likely to look scummy not answering a legitimate question (as you will appear to be hiding something) than to ask a fishy question in the first place.
The main purpose for

any

question is to spur discussion. Even if it's about less-than-relevant information such as experience, it gets discussion flowing.

[Beefster]

Exactly. Maybe we're out of the RVS, but he's bringing to attention a random question

to get the discussion going

. It's not scummy at this point. Maybe if he continues with reminding us of the question, then it will be. Remember, we got set back by millar13.

[Beefster]

I'm going to do something I'm generally against doing just to get some discussion. I'd like everybody to answer these questions please.

I'm glad you did. This game isn't going anywhere.

1. If you had to lynch somebody right now, who would it be?
2. Why would you lynch them?
3. What are your opinions on the lurkers?
4. Does anybody have any FORSEEABLE need to go V/LA between now and the time deadline hits?
5. If you have played mafia being, is lurking usually part of your playstyle?

1. I have no idea.
2. I like to wait for more information so I can make an educated decision. My gut doesn't work over the internet.
3. It's anti-town. Not worth voting someone for it alone, but supports scummy behavior.
4. Tuesdays and Thursdays I play D&D with friends, and Sundays I go to church. Don't expect posts in the late morning and early afternoon on those days.
5. I lurk when I see no reason to post- as I have nothing new to bring to the table.

[Beefster]

From you, I just want a list of everybodies names and what you think about them, whether you think they are town or scum.

Infact, I request this of everybody in the game. I'm exempt cause that's what I'm doing right now

I'd rather not put everyone on my list, as it gives the scum a nice little list of townies to lynch. I will, however, put my top suspects on my list.

1. Where the heck are you?!?! Come baaaaack!
2. Why did you not help start discussion when you noticed that the random voting stage has ended?
3. Do you think I should be worried about people opinions of me due to the mess Millar left me to clear up? (ie. should I be worried about Millar appearing scummy?)
4. Will you do a thorough re-read when you return?
5. Does your last vote still stand?

1. Right here, answering your questions. HI!
2. There was nothing to talk about. None of the bizarre reasons struck me as exceptionally odd. And nobody was really lurking. I would have put down some random questions, except it didn't feel appropriate.
3. Probably not. Millar is probably always anti-town.
4. Yes. Next post. There should be enough content to do some good ISOs.
5. I have a last vote?

confirm unvote

[Beefster]

^EBWOP: another reason for not asking questions was that I was busy with family.

[Beefster]

I'm going to use the area tags Haylen used. Those were pretty sexy.

First suspect: Nexus
He's been giving me bad vibes lately. He's definitely hiding something. He's pretty active lurky. Most of my suspicions have already been brought to the table by Haylen. Some additional points:
ISO26 appears to divert suspicion by indirectly attacking all the lurkers.
ISO27 strikes me as odd. He doesn't even try to defend himself properly.
ISO29, answer #1 reeks of WIFOM.
ISO30- I'd like to say that fluff doesn't matter per se- Content is all that matters. Posting

content

is townie, even if it is somewhat fluffy. Posting

nothing but fluff

is scummy.
I'm really not liking Nexus's defense (or lack thereof).

Vote: Nexus

Second suspect: jmurph3
It seems like she's just agreeing with Nexus. Her play doesn't seem genuinely IC to me.
ISO3- WHOA! She goes from "OMG YOU NEED TO DIE" to "meh" in less than 3 hours. Scummy.
ISO3-5- it looks like she's trying to change targets gradually as to not look like a scummy bandwagoning maniac.
ISO9 reeks of inconsistency. Earlier, she refused to answer Earlder's experience question, stating that it will clog up the thread. She seems to be against the questions, but proceeds to answer them anyway for no apparent reason. WTF is up with this suddden paradigm shift?
She also claims she isn't lurking by saying she posts "fairly regularly." (which is a half truth: regularly =/= frequently)
The answer to #3 is hypocritical, more or less.
The end of ISO10 looks like she's coaching Nexus.
------------
I feel that her scumminess is dependent on Nexus's alignment. Definitely some buddying going on here.

HoS: jmurph3

If I had to pick a third suspect, I would go with Haylen, for one reason and one reason only: wanting a full scum list. Aside from that, her play has been pro-town.

[Beefster]

Hmmm...

Mr. Flay's post got me thinking about an alternate perspective. I agree with what he said about Haylen. She's been giving me strange vibes over the last page. Especially when she tried to cover up asking for a townie list by denying it.

Nexus has also given me newbtown vibes lately... Even though I personally don't understand the feeling of the freshly newbish VT, as I was scum in my first game.

Regarding connections:
-I still feel confident that if Nexus is scum, jmurph3 is as well.
-I feel that Haylen's scumminess is mutually exclusive to Nexus's.

Come to think of it, I think jmurph3 is scum. I'm not liking jmurph's defense, and am very uncomfortable with how fast he jumped on Kov.
UNVOTE: Nexus
VOTE: jmurph3

[Beefster]

and

FoS: Haylen

a jmurph/Haylen scumpair is possible- jmurph is using false buddying and Haylen is using distancing.

[Beefster]

Man. I really don't know what to think anymore. Before, I was confident that at least one of (Nexus, jmurph, Haylen) was scum, but I'm starting to second guess myself. Kov is starting to look fishy and Earlder is looking a little odd.
Despite that, I'm still waiting for jmurph's reaction before I do much else.

[Beefster]

@jmurph: I wanted your reaction to my vote... Makes me wonder if you were trying to dodge the question...

[Beefster]

Crap! I didn't notice that. XD... When I first skimmed past it, I thought you were just correcting me on your gender.

Regarding connections:
-I still feel confident that if Nexus is scum, jmurph3 is as well.
-I feel that Haylen's scumminess is mutually exclusive to Nexus's.

So you don't think that Haylen and Nexus could be a scumpair that's playing off of each other?

It just doesn't seem very likely. It's some pretty hardcore bussing if they

are

playing off each other. In games I've played as scum, my scum partner was never as against me as either one is to the other.
Nexus on Haylen looks like an OMGUS, while Haylen on Nexus looks like a pick on the weakest tactic. Both are pretty scummy, yes, but 2 scums don't bus that hard.
I would say that there is also a slight possibility that both are townies.

Come to think of it, I think jmurph3 is scum. I'm not liking jmurph's defense, and am very uncomfortable with how fast he jumped on Kov.
UNVOTE: Nexus
VOTE: jmurph3

I said it before, I'll say it again. I am a girl.

Also, what part of my defense aren't you liking? Why are you not liking it? And see above re: the vote on Kov. I do wonder, however, how you can call my jumping on Kov "fast" when it took place almost 9 hours and multiple posts afterward?

I'd like to revisit your first defense.

Second suspect: jmurph3
It seems like she's just agreeing with Nexus. Her play doesn't seem genuinely IC to me.
ISO3- WHOA! She goes from "OMG YOU NEED TO DIE" to "meh" in less than 3 hours. Scummy.

Firstly, I never said "OMG YOU NEED TO DIE", nor did I even imply it. I eased off of millar because I could tell that we were getting mired in that instead of trying to scumhunt whatsoever. I also unvoted at that point because we were moving out of RVS. I don't hold my RVS vote out of RVS.

This is how I saw it. In the first post, you were very much against millar's actions and strongly held your vote on him. Then in the next post of yours, three hours later, you suddenly change to indifferent on millar. I still find that odd.

ISO3-5- it looks like she's trying to change targets gradually as to not look like a scummy bandwagoning maniac.

How was I bandwagoning at all? I actually moved off of a bandwagon when I saw where it was going.

Exactly. It looks like you were trying to hide the possibility that you were trying to start a new wagon- and your scumbuddy happened to be millar or Nexus.

ISO9 reeks of inconsistency. Earlier, she refused to answer Earlder's experience question, stating that it will clog up the thread. She seems to be against the questions, but proceeds to answer them anyway for no apparent reason. WTF is up with this suddden paradigm shift?

Here's the thing: I didn't like Earlder's question because it isn't relevant. Experience is a null tell, as roles are assigned randomly. Haylen's questions, while I didn't like them, at least were relevant to the game, hence why I answered them. Not a sudden paradigm shift at all.

I personally just don't like rolefishy questions like "are you nervous." Experience questions never bothered me, and despite being irrelevant, will still help with discussion. The fact that you're getting so down and dirty about relevance is kinda bothering me.

She also claims she isn't lurking by saying she posts "fairly regularly." (which is a half truth: regularly =/= frequently)
The answer to #3 is hypocritical, more or less.

It's only hypocritical if I'm a lurker, which I'm not. And if posting frequently is the only way to not be considered a lurker, than I guess I'm screwed. I work during the week, and don't have the luxury of being able to post multiple times during the day. It's not lurking, at least, not the way I view lurking. Lurking to me is purposely avoiding posting. I have not done that.

At a few points, you've not posted for a whole day. I'm not really holding the lurking itself against you, just pointing out how it makes you somewhat of a hypocrite.

The end of ISO10 looks like she's coaching Nexus.
------------
I feel that her scumminess is dependent on Nexus's alignment. Definitely some buddying going on here.

HoS: jmurph3

Not buddying, or coaching. Just trying to be helpful to a newb.

But it was sooo specific to Nexus.

If I had to pick a third suspect, I would go with Haylen, for one reason and one reason only: wanting a full scum list. Aside from that, her play has been pro-town.

Speaking of buddying, though, you seem to be basing a lot of what you're saying off of Haylen. Bit hypocritical there. And I love the way you throw in your suspicion of her at the bottom of your post so that you can pretend like you're not.

FoS: Beefster

Obviously buddying with Haylen, parroting everything she says, and hypocritical.[/area] Fair Enough.

Regarding Nexus:

As far as the Nexus thing goes, I really don't understand. Nexus, to me, is newb neutral. All of the things that I see Nexus doing are typical newbie mistakes and are not indicative of alignment. Granted, Nexus could still be scum, but the mistakes he's making aren't indicating that to me at the moment. In fact, Nexus' play reminds me a lot of my first game, where I was a newb VT, and came under heat on D1 and reacted in the same way.

Personally, I hope no one hammers at this point as I think that we have a lot more discussion that could and should come out on D1 before we lynch anyone. I really don't like kov's vote on Nexus - coming in, quick voting without reason, and putting someone at L1 because of it? Bad play, IMO.

FoS: kov

Also, there seems to be some confusion about the list Haylen asked for. Personally, I'm not going to give it for the same reasons already mentioned. Haylen claims:

Um. Can we please note that i

DID NOT

ask you all for a list of most pro-town and most scummy players. I asked for your opinions on each player, that's a completely different thing.

But what she really asked was this (bold added by me):

From you, I just want a list of everybodies names and what you think about them,

whether you think they are town or scum.

That, to me, seems to be asking for a list of town and scum. Very anti-town, IMO.

FoS: Haylen

.

Very impressed with the analysis by Mr. Flay. Seems to be very thorough in reading through everything. I look forward to reading more from him.

I'm concerned with the turn this day has taken. Actually, I'm glad that discussion has come out, as that only helps town. My worry that this game would never get off the ground has not come true, thankfully Currently, however, I'm worried that we're going to get a quicklynch on Nexus, who, at this point, I think will probably flip town. Oh - and Nexus, you may want to claim. Personally, from the way you've been talking about it in your posts, I think you've already claimed townie at one point or other, though whether you were actually meaning to do that, or were just using town/townie interchangeably, I don't know.

For now, I'm going to say

vote: Kov

. Your vote on Nexus seems very opportunistic, and I don't like the way you didn't give a real explanation for it. It's a perfect move for scum to make at this point.

It appears to be such a fast jump because you just spent the rest of the post talking about Nexus and myself. You clearly had more evidence against us two, yet you suddenly voted on Kov with less evidence. It looks kinda scummy.

[Beefster]

MOD: could you please fix the above post? there's an extra [/quote] just before "That, to me, seems to be asking for a list of town and scum. Very anti-town, IMO. FoS: Haylen."

I want it to be very clear what I said versus what jmurph said. Plus I might have screwed up something with the thread on this page.

Fixed

[Beefster]

I just glazed over Kov. He actually seems pretty townie to me. Yeah, he

looks

scummy, but that doesn't mean he's scum. The way he defends himself comes off more as town than scum.

Looking back at Haylen, I am convinced that she's scum. She's using her "read" on millar to defend herself, posting walls of fluff, and using other trickery pointed out by Mr. Flay.

UNVOTE: jmurph3
VOTE: Haylen

Please read the top of page 10.

[Beefster]

I feel that you may have lied about your millar read to try to prove yourself to be a townie. That's a defense, more or less.

Hmm. I guess I got a little too excited on that last post. They're just walls, fundamentally. (which isn't a scumtell) Sometimes I get too caught up in having a good number of reasons.

[Beefster]

Hmm. Good Observation. I'll take a better look at that tomorrow. I'd rather not right now, or I'd fall asleep.

[Beefster]

jmurph: I have more reasoning. I mentioned quite a bit of it earlier, but you seem to want a recap, so...
-The first thing that makes me wary was asking for a scum/town list
-Then, later, she denied it.
-Potentially lying about her read on millar to 'prove' her innocence.
-I wonder why she only shot the question about millar suspicion with regards to her.
-Misleading activity graphs.
-I'm not sure what to think of her using dyslexia (I'm fine with the dyslexia part) to defend herself. I have some of the same problems, but that doesn't stop me from glazing over my posts before posting them. On the other hand, it could be a town tell because she isn't terribly worried about what she posts.
-Defends herself with her meta
-Whines about people twisting her words. Not sure what to think of this.
-OMGUS on Mr. Flay

As for Nexus: I'm wary about his response after Mr. Flay made the observation. It reeks of WIFOM, as do many of his other posts.

[Beefster]

UNVOTE: jmurph3
VOTE: Haylen

[Beefster]

I posted reasons earlier. I made that post to make my vote actually count.

[Beefster]

From you, I just want a list of

everybodies

names and what you think about them,

whether you think they are town or scum.

Infact, I request this of everybody in the game. I'm exempt cause that's what I'm doing right now

How is this twisting your words? You ask for EVERYBODY on a list and whether they are town or scum. You keep ignoring this quote that everyone keeps bringing to your attention.

In response to the weird point you didn't understand. I'll reword it, because it doesn't make sense.
I noticed that you only gave

me

the question about whether you should be worried about millar. What was the purpose for that? As in, why wasn't it a question aimed at everyone?

[Beefster]

How is this twisting your words? You ask for EVERYBODY on a list and whether they are town or scum. You keep ignoring this quote that everyone keeps bringing to your attention.

Funny, you keep missing the end bit. "Im exempt cause thats what I'm doing now." Tell me? Did I give you a full list of who I thought was town and scum?

Yes. You listed your opinion of everyone. I still don't see how that rationalizes denying that you ever said it.

[Beefster]

I will defend myself when my words have stopped being twisted.

I'm sorry, but we can't read your mind- as such, misinterpretation is inevitable.

I do not care whether or not this is a miscommunication, but I find that your denial and other general reactions are scummy. Townies are more likely to admit to something than scum is- scum tends to deny things- and I've been an example of this in the past.

[Beefster]

Flay: could you clarify why you just unvoted? I'm not following.

[Beefster]

Fair enough. Reactions are important too.

[Beefster]

Sounds reasonable to me.

[Beefster]

a2: that post was awful! You're the first one I'll take a look at tomorrow. No lynch is bad, activity is good. That is all.

[Beefster]

Beefster, tell me, how do you know you won't die during the night?

I don't. Besides, that's not really an issue. If I die, I die. It's not a big deal, and what I said is a cue for others for D2.

[Beefster]

^scummy

[Beefster]

After seeing Earlder's post, I was about to switch my vote, but Haylen keeps digging herself deeper, so I'm not anymore. I still think that Haylen is trying to use strawman-like (not the best way to describe it) reasons to hide her OMGUS, something I'd expect from a newb, but not from an IC.

I'm willing to switch over to Zaj if no concensus is reached by [my] morning.

[Beefster]

I'll wait it out just a little longer.

[Beefster]

Every time you post, it makes me reluctant to switch my vote over to Zajnet.

[Beefster]

Of course it does. But I can't read your mind, so it looks very confusing and circular.

[Beefster]

Zajnet hasn't contributed much of anything- but that's not the only reason to lynch someone. He's my first suspect for tomorrow.
Stop trying to derail your lynch. It makes me uneasy.

About my post 2 up: It's like writing English papers. And then reading your own, compared to reading someone else's. Of course, yours will make sense to you because you wrote it and knew what you were thinking when you did. When you read someone else's paper or they read yours, well you criticize things that make perfect sense to them and vice-versa.

[Beefster]

Townies generally should not worry too much about getting lynched on Day 1. It happens. Scum, however- they have more to lose.

The only way to find out your alignment is by lynching you. I doubt the mafia would be stupid enough to NK a player that everyone finds suspicious.

I plan on taking out Zaj tomorrow if you're lynched today- especially if you flip town.

[Beefster]

don't be so manipulative.

[Beefster]

Whaa???

I was expecting Flay or myself to die... Plus, it seems odd for the mafia to kill a lurker. Something I'd expect from a newbie.

vote Zajnet

This vote is primarily in response to day 1. I'll quote and paraphrase if anyone wants a recap.

[Beefster]

Lets try this again...

vote Zajnet

[Beefster]

FoS: Kov

What's this "if Zaj is scum" business? Seems like an odd condition for that defense to be noted.
Why no FoS on Zajnet? He was also an active lurker. (Not to mention the hypocrisy)
What makes earlder more scummy than Zaj?

@everyone: I can definitely see scum motives behind not killing me or Flay. They're largely WIFOM (to make me and/or him look like scum), so I'd rather not get into them any deeper. There's really nothing to be gained from circular logic because there is so much uncertainty.

[Beefster]

Joke voting is usually not a good thing to be doing on D2. There are 18 pages of content. (keep in mind the first few standard mod posts)

FoS: Earlder

[Beefster]

I think the primary subject that deserves attention is the spontaneous Zaj wagon. It is clear that Zaj has not contributed much, as shown by his 1-3 sentence posts, and occasionally his one word posts such as "jmurph". Although, the seemingly only reason (except for one post of his) for him to be scummy is his lack of contribution, I agree that is a valid reason for a lynch, especially on day 1. We managed to hit 16 pages of activity, which is good, and of course that lends itself to actual cases being built because there is a pool of content to gather information from, but day 1 is still so early. Lynching the lurker is definitely a possibiliy in terms of what will enable town to collectively win later on. even if Zaj is town, his lack of contribution is anti-town, and some would say I am not contributing as much as I should, but I am posting when I can and trying to post content. Regardless, my point is that a Zaj lynch is not a bad idea, and I definitely identify with the reasons behind it.

One other interesting thing about Zaj is this post here:

Only that you're the only other person I've really seen as scummy so far. I would need to ISO you better before wanting to lynch you, but you're the only other person I'd vote for right now besides Haylen, unless somebody brought up what I find compelling evidence on somebody.

This is in response to Jmurph questioning why he would be Zaj's second choice for a lynch. This is the second time that Zaj says he would need to do an iso on someone to get a better read. Well, do a frickin' iso then! Zaj adds stimpulations to his scumhunting, which is quite suspect. He says he would take a closer look at Flay IF Haylen flips town, and now he says he would need to do an iso on Jmurph IF he would consider lynching him. Part of staying on track with this game is doing those things that will give you better reads, whether they br prodding someone, doing an iso, or looking at meta. For goodness sake, do them! 1-3 sentences every day or two does not help the town one bit. Also, why so undecided this late into the day. There are 16 pages of content to look at, and all Zaj has to say can be paraphrased as "Haylen is scummy and maybe Jmurph". I'm sorry, but that is not much of an opinion. Overall, I would be perfectly fine with a Zaj lynch, but, as mentioned, his response is critical before this turns into action.

I remember now that my case was the same as Earlder's. With a few extra points, some more recent:
In the Zaj quote, he's basically admitting that he was tunneling. And the matters that he says he's going to ISO/analyze but never does. It's anti-town at the least, scummy at most.
Additionally, it seems odd that yesterday, Zaj was tunneling (more or less) on jmurph, then Haylen. Now he's totally changed targets to Flay. Seems pretty opportunistic to me.

jmurph: I see your point about Mr. Flay. I also see motives behind him not killing me if he is scum- as I agreed with him quite a bit.

[Beefster]

^Posts like this often leave me torn on what to think- On the one hand, they look scummy, but I've noticed that those who make posts like this often turn out to be town. Haylen did it and turned out town, and now Flay's doing it and I have no idea what to make of it. Part of me wants to go the 100% rational route, but the other considers past observations and doubts the rationality.

I really don't think much can be gained from lynching Flay at this point- we should consider other perspectives before making a decision.

[Beefster]

I just mean don't lynch him right now. There are other things we should look at. The scumhunting is fine; I just don't want us to be tunneling in on Flay. Because if he's town, it'll turn out the same way as Haylen. That's all I was saying.

[Beefster]

Is he flaking?

[Beefster]

I thought I might be the kill because I was one of the more pro-town players in the game. It strikes me as odd that the mafia would kill a lurker.

[Beefster]

It's annoying how activity is dependent on activity... (PROD PICKED UP)

Flay's votes on Zaj and Kov look opportunistic to me, especially when he took his vote off singersigner because he/she posted content.

A Zajnet lynch feels more and more like a policy lynch every day. I'm annoyed at his lurking and it would be awesome if he would actually post enough to explain himself or screw himself over. There's really not enough going against him at the moment.

Unvote: Zajnet

On the other hand, I don't want us tunneling on Flay. I agree with much of what singersigner said about jmurph. I feel we should devote more thought to jmurph. And possibly Earlder. I'll take a look at them later.

[Beefster]

jmurph3

Haylen voted for me. This is NOT an OMGUS; instead, it's a retaliatory question of why, at this stage in the game, you would pick one of the few people who has been active recently as a person to lynch. She claims that I am a "lurker" to her mind, but I've posted fairly regularly, especially as compared to some of the other players thus far. Scum want to keep lurkers around, as it brings the town down and helps the scum, so by picking me, a player who HAS been active, under the guise of me being a "lurker", she leaves room for real lurkers to slip by. This is bad play, to me, or, at the very least, not particularly pro-town.

I can't believe I missed this spaghetti logic here. In essence it

is

OMGUS covered up with WIFOM.

Going back to my point on changing attitude from "OMG! U SHULD DIE" to "whatever", heres some quotes that show what I really meant.

If I weren't already voting for you, I would switch my vote to you now.

I think we're moving out of RVS, so I will unvote as well.

That being said, I personally want to ease away from the Millar train, as I have played with erratic players in the past and know that their behavior has nothing to do with their alignment.

Why the sudden change of attitude? (Note these were within about a 30 hour period)

Firstly, in no way is a no lynch better than a mislynch.

Only scum would think that.

It's always better to lynch than not because information is gathered from any lynch, even if it's the lynch of a townie, and not lynching just plays into the scum's hands.

Note the colored text. And actually, it's not entirely true. A mislynch is, in fact, worse than a no lynch, but statistically speaking, it's better to lynch than no lynch. It's a pretty easy fallacy to get into.

I really don't like the way she changed targets to Flay. It's basically "Well we know Haylen's town now, so I'm going to target the guy who started the wagon, even though I followed his logic earlier and hammered Haylen." Try to show some independence.
Not to mention your fallacy that singer pointed out.

This quote is just weird.

However, the way you've gone about denying it or reacting to it has made me suspicious. You've reacted with such venom that it appears to me as if we've stumbled upon scum and you're afraid you're going to get lynched.

I feel like town in this situation

, especially an experienced town as you would be in this situation, would react differently, more calmly, and try to continue scumhunting and helping town. I haven't seen this reaction from you, which is raising my suspicion.

What is "I feel like town in this situation" supposed to mean?

Firstly, I don't hold with meta. In all of my previous games, I have been town. In all of my previous games, I have acted differently each time.

But then later puts stock in meta to justify her suspicion of Haylen. (She expected Haylen to play better than she did) And now she's putting some meta thought into Flay.

Vote: jmurph3

Wow Zaj. You popped out fast. Care to contribute a little more than 2 sentences?

[Beefster]

When I said I needed one more day, I didn't mean 24 hours, I meant another night phase of the game. Once I see who dies, it will really clarify my reads.

Are you SERIOUS? So you need for it to be at

lynch or lose

to be able to get a good read? I'm sorry, but this can't get much scummier. I'd vote you, but I'd rather not hammer until I get a response from jmurph and Flay.

Please claim, Zajnet.

[Beefster]

I'm not the doc either. I do, however think his post on needing another night was more indicative of a cop. I'll search him for more tells to see if his claim matches. (keep in mind that there may not be a real doctor and Zaj picked the right fakeclaim as scum)

I'm currently in 2 other games with Zaj. We lynched him D1 in one of them and he flipped town.

[Beefster]

Vote: Zajnet

I just don't believe he's the Doc. I can't find any doc tells in his ISO.

[Beefster]

I don't quite understand why beefster's voting Zaj, when noone's counterclaimed.

beefster, would you mind explaining your reasoning?

I simply don't believe him. I was expecting that when he claimed, he would claim cop. His play looks more like scum or cop and there is only one post that even hints at doctor/town. I didn't find any copfishing either.

There may not be a real doctor. So we can't rely solely on waiting for a counter claim.

Yeahh... He's on shaky ground.

[Beefster]

Well I suppose his story works. It kinda threw me off when he mixed up his PR. I can't say I'm happy with it either. I don't believe him, but there are no CCs, so it probably isn't worth the risk.

UNVOTE

Let's move on and lynch some scum.

[Beefster]

*grumble grumble*

UNVOTE

[Beefster]

Why haven't you felt the need? What's holding you back?

[Beefster]

I was pressing him because I had trouble believing his claim. I dropped it because I felt we needed to refocus on scumhunting.

[Beefster]

Wow. Those are some sexy breadcrumbs.

Vote: Mr. Flay

[Beefster]

Obviously, I have 2 suspects.

I noticed that singersigner really got down to business yesterday... which I'm inclined to believe is a townie behavior in this case. That only leaves Nikanor, which makes sense based on Flay's and Earlder's voting patterns. If you notice, neither of them voted for each other.

Vote: Nikanor

[Beefster]

Nexus: It's better to look at what we know rather than what we think we know. So I'm not really understanding what makes my case "flimsy."

We're 99.9% sure that jmurph is the cop because there hasn't been a CC, Zajnet was the Doctor, and Flay was the Roleblocker. Knowing that, we also are 99% sure that Nexus is a townie.
But more importantly, we know that Mr. Flay was scum. By knowing that, you need to look at his connections. He NEVER voted on Earlder and voted on Kov/singersigner, while Earlder followed suit in voting on Kov/singersigner. Earlder's general play WAS pretty iffy as well, which supports my theory even more- He asked a lot of questions and didn't really go anywhere with them. And he tunneled. Then when Nikanor steps in, he says that he'll catch up in the next 3 weeks and wants to find scum by trial-and-error.
Whereas when singersigner stepped in, she really got down to actual scumhunting, which isn't something I'd expect from scum.

[Beefster]

There's really not that much to add without going into specifics. Maybe later.

[Beefster]

Sorry, I'm just gonna be busier than usual for the next month. I'm not at home for nearly 12 hours due to school and extra-curricular activities, and it takes me a long time to unwind and get my priorities out of the way before I get involved in games. I'll see if I can get an ISO of Nikanor out tomorrow.

Noted as a perpetual V/LA status

[Beefster]

I've been working on some vote and playstyle analysis. Expect a megapost in a day or two.

[Beefster]

Nikanor is really confusing me. I'll be back soonish with a megapost. I've already done a voting pattern analysis, which aside from a few points that were helpful, actually disproved a (general) theory of mine.

I'll be filling out some National Honor Society paperwork and stuff. So I'll be back when I'm done with that.

[Beefster]

It's no problem, jmurph. I've got analysis.

While reading, keep in mind how lurky Earlder was and how erratic Nikanor is playing right now.

this is the voting exchange I was referring to before

• 484: Flay votes Kov for lurking
  487: Earlder follows suit but lurks, himself.
  493: singer replaces Kov
  499: Flay unvotes (singer/Kov)
  501: Flay votes Zajnet for no reason
  ???: Earlder unvotes and disappears

It looked as if Earlder was just following his scumpartner, Mr. Flay.

Not counting any random votes, grayed out names were never voted, but were fos'd. I'm only including unconfirmed players because that is all that really matters at this point, and Flay for a control, since we KNOW he's scum.

Summary of votes and foses

Subject

-

Players they voted/fosed that day

Day 1

Vamparific/Mr. Flay- a2rudeboy(Vamp), Haylen (Flay)
Beefster- Vamparific/Mr.Flay, Nexus, jmurph, Haylen, Zajnet,

Kov

Earlder- Nexus, Zajnet
Kov- Nexus,

Haylen

Day 2

Mr. Flay- Kov/singer, Zajnet, Beefster, Mr. Flay
Beefster- Zajnet,

Earlder

,

Kov

, jmurph, Mr. Flay
Earlder- Zajnet, Kov
Kov/singersigner- Zajnet, Earlder

Day 3

Beefster- Nikanor
Nikanor- Beefster
singersigner- Nikanor

Notice that, as stated previously, Mr. Flay and Earlder NEVER voted for each other. Also keep in mind that Earlder's second votes changed suddenly- and under pressure. Also note that he never explicitly revisited Nexus on Day 2, before jmurph confirmed him as a VT. All he did was say that he was still suspicious of Nexus, but didn't really go anywhere with it.

I looked back over Earlder's Day 2 posts. Holy crap! I never noticed how much fence-sitting he was doing. Not to mention that, in general, he only posted 1 or 2 actual analyses. And everything else was fence-sitting and fluff. His Day 1 posts were more reminiscent of fluff tunneling.

Nikanor's current behavior is nothing short of confusing. I might have to look at meta.

Nikanor: could you please link to a completed game as scum and another as town?

On the other hand, when I was glazing over Kov, it genuinely read as townie to me, even if lurky. The way he posted didn't seem newbscum to me. Not to mention how active and helpful singer has been since she replaced in.

Conclusion: I am 95% sure that Nikanor is the other scum.

[Beefster]

Hey Beefster, would you be willing to be lynched today if it results in my lynch tomorrow?

What kind of strategy is that?

Quit playing WIFOM games.

[Beefster]

I've already done a voting pattern analysis, which aside from a few points that were helpful, actually disproved a (general) theory of mine.

What was this?

Yeah, actually, I'm curious as to what this "general theory" you speak of was, and why you didn't just tell us in the first place.

My theory was that people who vote just about everyone are town and those that don't are scum, but once I took a look at the votes, I realized I was completely and utterly wrong. How many people you vote is really just a nulltell playstyle.

[Beefster]

I checked out 2 of Nikanor's games. In the scum game I looked at, Nikanor looked a little more careful than his town game that I looked at. Which makes me even MORE confused.

I'm gonna say just one thing along those lines. Consider another perspective... What if singer is scum?

[Beefster]

In case you didn't guess, my response is NO. I'm town and I'm not 100% sure that you are scum. I'd like to get it right today rather than tomorrow.

There's really no reason for even a townie to want to get lynched or be totally fine with it. On the one hand, scum's chance of winning decreases significantly when lynched, but when a townie is lynched it increases scum's chance of winning. Regardless of your alignment, getting lynched reduces your chance of winning.

So Nikanor, QUIT INVOKING WIFOM!

The way you're pointing out my alleged scumminess seems scummy to me. Or maybe it's nulltell sarcasm. I'm not yet sure.

[Beefster]

I didn't expect you to be scum until Nikanor died.

Ugh. LYLO.

[Beefster]

And it's up to Nexus. Make the right choice. Pick singer.