/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Herodotus]

I thought I would be able to post earlier but some responsibilities came up. I expect to catch up within 26 hours.

Three brief points, though:
1. I asked the mod via PM before the game started, and he said that hiders can be roleblocked. Just wanted to mention that in case people assumed otherwise.
2. We're giving scum an ability pair, not one ability and another. They should in theory be two things that don't work well as a pair, though I don't have any specific idea at this time.
3. I don't like the janitor power. But if it were paired with assassin, I don't think they would be able to accomplish anything more than the two roles individually would.

[Herodotus]

I had an idea:
1. Massclaim day 0 OR mass-PR-claim day 0
2. Then select the rolecop and roleblocker
3. Results:
The scum rolecop is useless/semiuseless.
Either 4 confirmed town PR's, or 5 or 6 claimed PR's.
With 5 claimed PR's, we start lynching from among the non-PR's. The scum have to either let most of the PR's live, with only one of them roleblocked, or narrow down the claimed PR group until we have good idea which of the survivors is scum.
With 6 claimed PR's, I'm not sure what the best strategy is, but it's probably to lynch from among the claimed PR's.
The reason to claim on day 0 is that the scum won't know which of them is the RB, so they can't decide which of them will fakeclaim in advance.

But the above doesn't seem any better than waiting until at least the first time a PR would normally claim, then massclaiming at that time (which in turn doesn't seem ideal.) Does anyone see a way to salvage this obviously flawed plan?
Probably not.

---

This is also a message to any potential vig; stay quiet early, unless you're very sure.

What does that mean, in English?

Exactly what it says, DGB. I don't see how that remark is cryptic.

It's just slightly ambiguous whether you're asking them to lurk, or to not shoot. I think you meant to not shoot, though.

Hmm. I just read the janitor PM. Didn't realize it was for a lynch. I was assuming NK. That's a little stronger than I assumed. I still think I prefer that to a rolecop or assassin though.

Could you explain how you thought the janitor power would work?

Hoopla's RB/assassin plan isn't bad. But PR's would need to be very careful. No conspicuous breadcrumbs, etc.
I'm not sure it's necessary to autolynch all claimed PR's. The assassin only has 2 shots. In the worst case, we can at least make them use up both shots. Though there are caveats related to information, and fakeclaims. (Though mith's example of a vig who shot scum is one example of someone not to lynch. Let the real vig who really shot the scum kill the fakeclaimer.)

Last, and sorry to keep posting but I can't help myself but start to get involved: Consider that our roles are likely to be 2 hiders who it really won't hurt to lose. Roleblocking that won't hurt, and assassinating that won't hurt.

A RB'ed Hider can get a false result (though we are aware of this possibility in advance.)

I would assume that scum would've thought of two-hiders/docs = mini-mason buddies; and put only one in there and possibly then has that open to a fake-claim. With the talent in the game; that's very easy for me to see that they would do that and the roleblocker would then be a good choice for us since if there is a "safe-claim" for them; every other role would have to claim to prove that one of them is lying.

I can't parse your second sentence. One hider + one fakeclaiming hider I understand; what does the rest mean?

@Hoopla: Well, I thought it was RVS time. Apparently not.

Scum daytalk makes this game around 3x scarier with the player list. Is it permanent or just for day 0?

How random was your RV?
The scum role PM says they can always daytalk.

Herodotus, I'm pretty curious about point 1. Why were you asking the mod whether Hiders can be Roleblocked?

Because I started thinking about what we should give the scum before day 0 started.
It has no correlation with whether I am a hider, since it was during pregame.
I also asked whether we can double up the scum PR's (eg. two roleblockers,) and was informed that we cannot.

Roleblocker is at L-2

. Consider carefully before rushing to hammer it, please.

[Herodotus]

Herodotus: I don't want to say too much about the numbers I have on this, in case the Mafia don't know what the optimal play is, but I don't think massclaim is likely to benefit us as much as having the power roles functioning normally would.

At this point, I agree. But I don't know for certain that there isn't a good strategy that does involve a massclaim.

Sorry for the double post, not awake enough yet and I forgot a couple things.

Herodotus: Given that you are tossing around the idea of a massclaim, I find it odd that you ignored the whole Hider-claim discussion and jumped right into a L-2 Roleblocker vote. I'd like some thoughts on Troll's idea, please.

Being not awake enough yet seems to have made you not notice that it was Amished, not I, who made the L-2 RB vote.

In case it wasn't obvious to everyone else: My previous question to Herodotus was more of a "So you're scum who was trying to figure out whether to give us a Hider or two?" thing.

and then I decided to draw attention to that? No, there's no tell here.

1. Given that the discussion was about whether we should do a Hider-claim so as to possibly avoid giving scum a Roleblocker, I'm not sure how he could miss that no one was assuming the Hider was unblockable (possible I missed something from someone assuming just that, or that he only skimmed enough to see the latter part of the Hider-claim discussion and missed the Roleblocker stuff).

In fact, the mod stated that any hypothetical hiders could be roleblocked in the thread before my post 90; but as I hinted, I hadn't read the game yet. But I've never seen blockable hiders before, and I noticed the mod hadn't updated the "clarifications" in post 2, so I wanted to make sure everyone was aware. I had noticed that roleblocker was ahead in the votecount.

2. In point 2. he said he has no synergy-related ideas... yet point 3. is a synergy idea (that is, Janitor and Assassin don't have synergy).

Yes, that's a synergy-related idea. I should have said that I didn't have any positive preferences/suggestions. While the Janitor/Assassin don't have synergy, I don't think I want us to choose that pair.

3. And, of course, what I mentioned earlier in this post regarding post 96 (if he's aware enough of the Hider claim discussion to feel the need to mention post 90 point 1., and if he's going to suggest a massclaim, why is he sidestepping the Hider discussion and voting Roleblocker?).

I don't believe that Troll is rolefishing, however I'm a little concerned if the scum gave out a hider, discussion from too many people about hider claiming will reveal to the scum who their best NK targets are.

[Herodotus]

I don't believe that Troll is rolefishing

Well, he is seeking a PR (by claim). One could call that rolefishing. I mean he wants a claim, but I don't think he's trying to fish for tells.

@mith: Yes, it's hypothetically possible that people discussing a massclaim could give out info about their role. However, I expect we can all consider the question in the abstract, without giving consideration to any role we may have. The difference between this and the hider claim issue is that if someone says "I agree that all hiders should claim", but doesn't claim hider themself, then the scum will pretty much know that player isn't a hider.

Wondering: Can you reference any games where you've seen an unblockable Hider?

May I first ask why you're asking? If I can't find any examples, does that make me scum?

[Herodotus]

I have to go out for about fourty minutes, but if you could explain that question by then, I will answer as soon as I get back.

[Herodotus]

Unless I'm mistaken, an assassin combined with the normal mafia kill can go through a single protection effect. Thought I'd mention that.

I'm pretty sure that's not the case. The town role PM's all suggest that they prevent all NK's on the person protected.

[Herodotus]

Herodotus, it can't

make

you scum if you're

already

scum... (Partly just curious, partly think it's odd to use the phrase "I've never seen blockable hiders before" if you've never seen unblockable ones either.)

Taking refuge in semantics?

---

In this game, the mod said:

Night abilities will resolve in the following order of precedence:

Hider
Mafia Roleblocker, Jailkeeper (if two blockers target each other, both are blocked from using any other abilities - this includes the Jailkeeper's protection ability).
Everything Else

^^^ People should check that link out...

Here is the full role reveal of a game where the hider was RB-immune. There wasn't a roleblocker, but I told the hider they couldn't be blocked so that they wouldn't doubt their information.

Those are the only two games I can recall that I was involved with that included or were semi-open and could include hiders. I'm pretty sure I've seen other examples, and I believe there has been a MD discussion or two in which the RB-immunity was presumed. I consider Natural_action_resolution the standard, and anything else a deviation.

---

I see your point about discussing a hider claim in the abstract, but I didn't interpret this as something we were going to vote on as much as Zorblag making a recommendation for players to either follow or not.

[Herodotus]

Thinking on it, the jan is only

really[/b] bad if we have a vigilante on our side. If not, then we'll know that the death is a townie. We may not be able to count power roles as effectively, which is definitely bad, but we'd at least know the alignment.

The janitor is a daytime ability.

[Herodotus]

do you have any objection to discussing it on the basis of "this is something under consideration only as a whole-town strategy, and would only be implemented with a consensus"?

I don't have any objection to that, though I do feel like it would be harder to do. I also don't have a strong opinion.
At the moment, the roleblocker seems very popular. If we do go with the "hiders must claim day 0" idea, it's obviously important to not have a roleblocker. This is why I warned about the L-2.

[Herodotus]

@Ooba: I think it's nearly certain that one of the scum would fakeclaim. If the scum have a janitor, I expect that they would use it to cover up either one of the PR's, or the scum who fakeclaimed. Then we would remain in doubt about whether the remaining claimers were telling the truth, unless they could confirm each other.
And I'm glad you asked about how the scum PR's were distributed. I assumed it was random.

Does anyone besides me think it might be best to wait until after 24 hours into day 1 before we start giving serious reads?

@Mith: The named townie effect is what I was going for. I was thinking of the discussion in the numbers thread about an open game in which a fixed number of townies was in each of two groups. But it's not worth it unless someone can find some other benefit or modification to the strategy. For instance, if we were certain there was at least one weak doctor, all PR's except any who are weak doctors could claim, and any WD's investigate/protect the people who claimed. But that probably won't work either.

@Slicey: I like assassin/RB as well, but we're still considering whether we have a better strategy available. I'd appreciate it if you'd temporarily unvote RB, as it's at L-1.

[Herodotus]

Does anyone besides me think it might be best to wait until after 24 hours into day 1 before we start giving serious reads?

nowhy

so that the scum have to choose which of them will be PR's without knowing which of them will be under fire

[Herodotus]

@Ellib: Are you 100% certain that the best overall strategy that the town will find during day 0 involves choosing the roleblocker? If not, unvote so that we can continue exploring the options.

Soooo we should all lurk through the first 24 hours of D1 then rite? Or talk about stuff that doesn't matter.

Or ask questions.

---

Considering how quickly the scum chose which roles to assign, I'm not so sure that they fully explored every possible town strategy.

[Herodotus]

Basically, I think we're all in agreement that we're giving them the Roleblocker

if

we don't come up with some big clever potentially game-breaking plan, but if we do come up with such a plan the Roleblocker would screw it up.

I agree with the above. I'd be voting/hammering RB except that I think it's worthwhile to first consider different ideas.

d. Four fake claims. Obviously a winning strategy for the scum. Do this one.

Vote: mith for mentioning the best scum strategy.

[Herodotus]

I want to point out that I think a regular massclaim would probably be a bad idea. I was hoping someone would come up with a modification to a standard massclaim that would be a good idea. Like the all-but-WD claim, possibly with hypodoc. But hopefully even better.

[Herodotus]

I've been without home internet access since my last post. I expect to have access again before Monday. Apologies.

[Herodotus]

I suppose I support the hider claim.

@Tajo: I'm doubtful of the benefits to the question in 238. The disadvantage I see is that scum could pick their fakeclaims more convincingly if they know what the townies expect the PR's to be.

[Herodotus]

Wasn't it 9-9 on the hider claim?
But I suppose time is important, so if we're going to do this, we shoud get it done.

I'm not a hider.

[Herodotus]

I suppose I support the hider claim.

@Tajo: I'm doubtful of the benefits to the question in 238. The disadvantage I see is that scum could pick their fakeclaims more convincingly if they know what the townies expect the PR's to be.

I dont get this. Could your rephrase/example/etc?

Yes.

Suppose the scum gave out 2 of role A, and 2 of role B. Or maybe 1 of role D, etc.
Then suppose most of the townies say "if I were scum, I'd have given 1 (or 2) of role C."
Then when the scum are deciding on fakeclaims, one of them claims role C.
It's not a huge difference, but I'd think they might be slightly more likely to be able to mislead the town if they know that everyone is expecting role C to appear.
On the other hand, I don't see what there is to gain by the hypothetical selection.

[Herodotus]

I still don't like the janitor. Suppose DGB is telling the truth, but later one of the scum claims tracker and contradicts her. We lynch one of them, and the result is covered. Then we are uncertain about the other, and uncertain about DGB's results, as long as the other is alive and unconfirmed.

Assuming DGB is telling the truth, the scum now have a field of 15 townies of whom 3 could be assassin targets. A role cop would allow them one shot each day to look for PR's. The field will likely narrow, but whenever the scum hit a PR with their regular NK, the number of targets decreases. There's a good chance that either the assassin or rolecop is lynched, or we are at LYLO, before they uncover any PR's via the rolecop.
So I'm okay with the Rolecop + Assassin combination, unless there's a stronger argument against it.

vote: assassin
vote: rolecop

[Herodotus]

I'm online and reading, and tending to like Troll's idea.

Preview edit: is it too late? I've lost track of the count.

[Herodotus]

So it is.

Roleblocker + Janitor, with no real hider claims.

[Herodotus]

I'm pretty sure 24 hours is up.
But before I vote, I'm thinking... if there is a player who is obvscum, should we quicklynch them in the hope that the scum janitor won't be able to use their ability in time? The disadvantage is that they can use the ability on a future day if that player didn't get the janitor role.

[Herodotus]

Also, janitor can't sweep himself up, Herod.

What makes you think that?

[Herodotus]

vote: KMD

Also, a one hider claim is dodgy

Could you explain what you mean by this? Is there something about only one hider claiming that would make you think it was a fakeclaim, while two hiders claiming would make you think they were more likely telling the truth? (I'm assuming "dodgy" = "untrustworthy".)

@Ooba: I don't think your classification scheme will necessarily have a strong correlation with alignment. Any scum who wanted to appear helpful D0 probably could have. And 'supporting massclaim' is hardly a towntell. It's not clear that it is in the town's best interests, and even if it were, scum wouldn't necessarily oppose it.
And is there any significance to my "*"?

@DGB 385: How is Zoraster trying to make sure you don't hunt scum? Presumably you suspect him -- and you're voting him, and you made an argument against him...

@Spyrex: Did you vote me because you always think I'm suspicious when we're both townies, or because you know I know you do? Because I know you know I know that, so it won't buy you any town points.
I don't recall the switch you refer to. Are you thinking 'massclaim is "obviously flawed" ' = "lets massclaim"?
The push for assassin/rolecop was based on the assumption that there was a hider. Without one, I would have supported roleblocker/(not janitor). With one, it had to be (not roleblocker)/(not janitor).

[Herodotus]

@Spy:
Just because you don't use meta as a basis for deciding your town/scum reads doesn't mean you wouldn't be happy with others saying "Spyrex is doing what he would do as town here."

I can't help you regarding your perception of a change in tone. I'm aware of neither the details of the basis for this, nor any reason at all why you would expect scum would change their tone and town wouldn't. Normally I'd point you back to the MD thread in which we commented on this, but I don't see any point to that here.

I see your point about the "1-1" trade. Your further numbers aren't nearly as bad as you're making them out to be. A .25 chance of an extra kill on a PR on each of N1 and N2 is less bad than even a single mislynch that results from not knowing the alignment of a lynched player. (Both scenarios are more complicated than that, involving giving the scum info about failed assassin attempts, and the possibility of multiple resulting mislynches, or lost opportunities to make connections, but we may as well oversimplify.) I still feel that janitor was the strongest role that we could have given to the scum. Consequently, I'll be a bit more suspicious of everyone who was on the janitor wagon.

In other news, I'm not getting the KMD wagon at all.

Some townies are voting him because he's scum.

[Herodotus]

Some townies:
I don't expect that Zorblag would have spent time looking for hider claims if he knew there were no hiders. Sure, he could fake it as scum to look productive, but generally anyone asking for claims is taking a risk. So we have a town troll.

Rhinox as town I'm pretty confident of based on meta and his day 0 contribution. It's gut, but it's a strong gut read.

If DGB is town, then Elmo is likely town. DGB already gave one good reason to believe this in 289. Combined with his current vote, I'm liking Elmo for town in this game.

I had a townread on Hoopla during day 0. Others have pointed out the issues with her reaction to DGB's fakeclaim, so I'm leaning more to neutral now.

Tajo and Ooba look like townies.

- I did not mechanically classify people based on those set of four points. Those points served as a general guideline and then I used my instinct.

I also had the impression that your reads were mechanical (with exceptions.) It was that first paragraph of the post that made it seem that way.

So, many of my strongest townreads voted for the janitor, and I consider the janitor wagon suspect. That leaves Spyrex, KMD, DrippingGoofball, Ellibereth, Papa Zito, mith, ekiM, and Amished.

I have mixed thoughts on mith. DGB is living up to her reputation for crazy ideas, but I think the OMGUS on Zoraster may be a good issue to explore while the fakeclaim isn't going to tell us her alignment.

@DGB 385: How is Zoraster trying to make sure you don't hunt scum? Presumably you suspect him -- and you're voting him, and you made an argument against him...

[Herodotus]

Tajo, why do you know about my meta/asking about it? I have never played with you before.

That isn't a very good answer.

[Herodotus]

@PZ: Why do you think Troll's hider stuff day 0 was scum-motivated? What was the scum's goal?
And if you can get impressions of peoples' alignments from day 0, then why do you think it was only boring mechanics?

@Elli: The janitor wagon is suspect because the ability, even one shot, is more powerful than any of the others.
You're voting KMD already... after we lynch him today, don't you think it would be valuable to see his scumflip?
Or to take a more abstract example, suppose on day 3 we had five people claiming PR's, we lynch the one who is scum, and they are janitored -- after that, at least four, if not more, would-be confirmed townies won't be confirmed. While they may be able to confirm each other, that would use up their time and actions, and would depend on their roles (and the existence of a RB may make it impossible.)

@Spyrex: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=13932 Don't complain if you find this link useless, I already said there was no point. FWIW, I had you and ekim overlapped as far as that thread was concerned because you agreed with his main point.

[Herodotus]

Votes that seem very safe - very safe indeed. To some, that line will be extra reason to vote for me.

Indeed. Also your

Be nice, ekiM.

and

You don't trust politicians, Elmo?

don't look like posts I'd expect from a townie. I'm going to have to consider your KMD vote, since it's still easier to believe that he's scum and you're town than, for instance, the reverse.

[Herodotus]

The Hoopla wagon, while I'm still not sold,

at least makes sense

for why it is happening.

You're probably town, then. No offence intended, but I'd rather that you had been scum.

The KMD one seemingly just grew on itself. I was curious if that's all there was to it.

There are good reasons for the KMD wagon, but wagons are often more informative without explanations.

@Ooba: Law of averages? Really? I assumed PZ was joking when he said that about Zorblag, but your post tastes more serious. Partly because of the vote, and partly because it's a second reference.

@mith: what do you think of KMD's response (or lack of response) to the votes on him? Scummish, townish, or null?

[Herodotus]

In response to Rhinox's post:
If multiple townies are lurking, it's likely that one or more scum will decide they may as well lurk too, so I agree with PT. Even if it doesn't help a lot yet.

If there is a hider who decided not to claim, then they were not doing their job as a townie. First, because the scum know they're out there, and the list of people who might have fakeclaimed not-hider is short, and second, because if they ever claim, and can't be confirmed right away, they will be lynched.

Ironically, I'm more concerned that Hoopla wants to play the too townie to be scum card. Just tossing that out there for future reference.

[Herodotus]

Hmm, I am suspicious of Herodotus, Ellibereth, KMD and zoraster. That is my guess at the scumteam, so far. I'll keep you updated, I suppose.

It's one thing to suspect each of KMD, Elli, and me, but considering voting patterns, I don't see much reason to propose that we are all scum together.


On the subject of relations, I think PZ and KMD could both be scum. Or just one, but I doubt that neither is.

[Herodotus]

@Tajo:
It's a pretty legit question. I've never played with you before, and why you're saying that you know about me raises eyebrows. Also link to whatever that game is.

The problem is that you dodged the question he asked you, even as you acknowledged it.

Im also having a bad feeling about Vasudeva, that is based on the town meta I recall from him.

Vasudeva, could you summarize your meta in one paragraph?

(emphasis added)

Tajo, why do you know about my meta/asking about it? I have never played with you before.

Also, even if you've never played in a game together, that doesn't mean he hasn't read a game you played or played with you using a different account.

vote: VasudeVa

Consider that pressure to provide a decent answer and to explain the lack of answer earlier.

[Herodotus]

@Elli: The janitor wagon is suspect because the ability, even one shot, is more powerful than any of the others.

arughawagaerg I thought we settled this sort of stuff D1...

(I assume you mean D0.)
That's a cop-out. We settled what PR's the scum would get, but not what roles would be least bad for the town. Do you say on day 2 of your games "well, we settled the day 1 lynch on D1. So let's not analyze the wagon."

But looking at D0 town obv had disagreements about what was most powerful, so scum maybe had different ideas about what was strongest etc.

Yes, that's possible. But frequently the group of people who do the most harm to the town overlap significantly with the group of people who are scum.
(For instance, if anyone other than DGB had fakeclaimed hider, I'd probably be voting them, because it seems like a net anti-town action. In this case I specifically believe that she might do what she did as town.)

I mean, I would bet there was at least one scum on each of the voting-for-a-role wagons just because but not one particuarily bad. Or we won't until we get an idea of what Pr's we have. Yeah.

The successful ones, at least. Yes, that's likely.

[Herodotus]

Zoraster, can you explain in two sentences why you want to lynch DGB?

Sure:

DGB made her anti-town "gambit" without any real calculation on whether it was helpful to the town

, but she reasoned (correctly, it seems) that a "gambit" almost always comes across as pro-town, even when its substance is decidedly not. DGB is absolutely capable of using such a ploy, and we should not allow scummy behavior to slip by just because it comes from an chaotic player.

How is it that you know the first sentence, especially the bolded part, to be true? If she is scum, as you propose, then she may have calculated that it was harmful to the town. I wouldn't expect that she would share that calculation. I'm tentatively seeing this as a scumslip from you.

being prodded != lurking, all the time. And all lurkers do not necessarily get prodded.

True.
Ekim, do you generally lurk as town? As scum? Do you have opinions on anyone, including the person you're voting (Hoopla)?

[Herodotus]

So zoraster: What was so anti-town about the gambit in your eyes?

In my dreams, I'm seeing a tajo/Amished scumteam trying to whip up and exploit a tunneler.

How seriously are you taking those dreams right now?

[Herodotus]

But it's not funny that we have 1 week to deadline, and most people are low-activity. Only half of all players have posted in the last 24 hours, and one of them was only posting an excuse for not being able to post.

Speaking of that,

@mod: has the issue with MME been resolved? Replacement, or no replacement?

Edit:
@DGB: Daytalk. But your point stands.

[Herodotus]

So zoraster: What was so anti-town about the gambit in your eyes?

In my dreams, I'm seeing a tajo/Amished scumteam trying to whip up and exploit a tunneler.

How seriously are you taking those dreams right now?

[Herodotus]

CONCERN: You're voting Zoraster, and stating a fear that scum are trying to exploit him.
ACTION: Wonder why you haven't moved your vote if you believe that fear.
RESULT: None.

[Herodotus]

I'm glad I answered your question.

I suppose you did, though your answer left me unsatisfied.

Yea. It's pretty clear that it wasn't a "random" sampling and even you yourself make mention of it. Which is super awesome considering you were in that list.

Me Grimlock no like post. Not at all.

What?

No, seriously, what? You make no sense.

What?

No, seriously, what?

It's like bizarro world here where I'm trying to figure out this AWESOME KMD WAGON and somehow I'm patted on the head and given a town star?

You could look at the context for the reason I thought you were town. It was based on your reaction to the Hoopla wagon. Acknowledging that there was a reason for it, but deciding not to join it.
There is no apparent point to the votecount you posted. Non-sequitur much?
... and then you pounce onto the hoopla wagon. Apparently your top three choices for lynch day 1 are all either likely or certain townies. (I'm not sure I have mentioned this yet, but I think Hoopla is likely town, and I won't be voting her after all.)

Also, choosing Janitor was probably terrible but we'll see how it plays out. Probably better than the rolecop and waaaay better than the assassin.

We did have to choose 2 out of 4...

Why is there a wagon on VV? I missed something here. Uh, ooba? Someone? I need more than 'I want to see where this goes. Also law of averages" to understand what VV's done/why wagoning him might be a good idea. Tajo? I guess I sympathize with question dodging BUT.

For me, it started with the question dodging. I've looked through their posts in ISO since then. There's nothing that looks like scumhunting, and nothing in their D1 posts that suggests to me they are town; would you say the same?
And Vas has posted again without answering. Vas is playing a severely anti-town game: no scumhunting, voting a probable townie apparently only for the purpose of bandwagoning, and dodging a question.

@Ooba (re:505): a vote for PZ wouldn't have done much but demonstrate the support that I already stated. A vote for Vas says, "answer the question or face a growing wagon." I expected when I voted Vas that they would answer the question, and if their response wasn't scummy, I would have moved my vote to PZ. Right now, I'd join a PZ wagon if he became the alternative to a Hoopla lynch. But Vas's continued dodging brought my attention to the other details, and KMD is quite scummy as well.
Rhinox is playing very differently from how I've seen him play as scum; I don't think you're on the right track regarding him.

I said there were good reasons to vote KMD, so I should probably go ahead and cover some.
Bandwagon analysis is what KMD does. As a townie, he would never want a janitor interfering with that. His support for a janitor is a strong scumtell.
Check out this combo:

Dgb's reaction to a vote is awfully defensive.

Vote Zoraster

A major change of direction, which I am guessing was based on the fact that the DGB wagon he expected did not materialize.

Rhinox, no. Just lazy. Didn't know the hider claim thing was going on. I don't think I actually saw 348 or 349. I was bored of the whole "what roles should we give scum" discussion and was pretty much waiting for the actual game, so I skimmed over the role related stuff.

It's pretty hard to miss the approxiamately 15 posts saying "I'm not a hider" while skimming page 11.
There's the lurking and lack of scumhunting too, but those get to be afterthoughts in this case, considering the weight of the scumminess above.

[Herodotus]

Vas, your Hoopla-connection theories are silly, though I don't find them scummy. The rest of you is suspect.

Your current refusal to answer looks like something your scumbuddies coached you to do. I do believe your claim that you feel overwhelmed in this game; the same thing happened to me in my first large game (last year's /in-vitational.) But if you felt out of place and overwhelmed and you were a townie, I think you would want to answer the question, instead of picking a fight over it. Only your scumbuddies telling you in your QT to stand your ground would likely give you the inclination to refuse.

I also don't see what you're referring to when you say that you've scumhunted populartajo. You've just asked him what game of yours he's referring to for your town meta. Does Tajo look scummy to you? You seem to be oscillating between him being suspicious and his vote being something that the scum latched onto. (I'm referring to your posts prior to Elli's question in post 587, naturally.)

Well, yeah. But there are more games I'm not in than games I'm in. Plus again, I don't think I'm popular(or am I?) nor good enough to have someone meta me.

That is absurd on multiple levels.

As far as bet-hedging is concerned, IF both Hoopla and Vas are town, then I feel like a Hoopla-mislynch would be more informative than a Vas-mislynch. But Vas is by far likelier to be scum, and lynching scum is the point.

Um, so is the VasudeVa wagon growing because I didn't vote for it? Is this true or false? Mith, help me.

It's possible, but I'd be on it either way.
Although if you voted Vas, he might suspect himself of being your scumbuddy.

[Herodotus]

@Amished: you do realize that attitude is pure suicide for any town when Vas is scum, right? Are you able to evaluate the points against him? You sound like you have meta knowledge about him -- why base your idea of his alignment on pregame odds if you're more knowledgeable than the rest of us regarding him?

[Herodotus]

VasudeVa>>zoraster>>Hoopla

Same. But I still think KMD is scum. I'm not sure where I'd put him in comparison to Vas. Probably a little worse, but only if Vas gets an adjustment for the reason Amished talks about. (Yes, I do accept that some people tend to draw wagons even when they're town (though I didn't know that about Vas.) What I dislike about Amished's meta defense is that it COMPLETELY ignored the argument against Vas and everything else in the thread.)

VasudeVa, can you give us some links to previous games in which you were town and felt the way you described in post 564 ("I do feel out of league. There are way too many people and way too many stuff going on for me to handle.") Please specify any games in which you were under pressure.

[Herodotus]

It's all in my Wiki. Check out NY111 where everyone attacks me for having bad theory.

I didn't find much of use there; more please? Recent games are best. (Also, smaller games would help, I don't want to read 60 pages.) I'm not going to waste hours randomly choosing games from your wiki either.

VasudeVa>>zoraster>>Hoopla

Same. But I still think KMD is scum.

I barely recall that KMD is in this game. And you think he's scum?

Yes, and I finally presented some reasons here. There is one other thing I had in mind that I didn't mention, but it was early and speculative, and wouldn't likely convince anyone.

I have stated over and over and over and over and over

again

that I find his familiarity with my meta to be suspect at that time. Make fun of my rather odd way of thinking all you want but that was what I felt when talked about my meta.

People read games. Maybe he happened to be studying the playstyle of someone else in the same game as you a month ago. I don't see any way that this is a scumtell. I don't think he would simply lie about having seen you in a previous game.
On a related note, I asked whether you find Tajo scummy. Is this your complete response?
However, now that we have some self-meta comments, I do want Tajo to answer Vas's question. What games of Vas's have you read, and how does his earlier play here compare to his play there?

Also, do you honestly believe that I would go like 'OMG SCUMBUDDIES HALP. ONE GUY ASKED ME TO MAKE A 1 PARAGRAPH SUMMARY OF MY META. COACH PLZX.'.

Nope. Bad attacks with bad scum-buddy coaching theory. Hero is defscum.

This is more what I had in mind:
Tajo: question
Vas: refusal to answer question
Tajo and me: votes for you
You (in QT): I'M GETTING WAGONED, WHAT DO I DO?
Your scumbuddies (in QT): stand your ground because caving would (look scummy) or (make it clear that you can't be scum with Tajo or Herodotus) or (something like that)
... now that I think about it, that probably isn't very good advice.
But I feel like the natural human response to feeling overwhelmed and being pressured by people with questions is to try to give them the information they are asking for (consider: interrogations.) The fact that you responded differently suggests there may have been an outside influence.

Where did Hero FoS: buddy? I only see him commenting about KMD because ooba asked him about KMD.

We need an emoticon for jaw-dropping-all-the-way-to-the-floor. KMD has been my top suspect since D0, with competition from you.

It's not literally an FOS:buddy, but it is in spirit.

VasudeVa>>zoraster>>Hoopla

Same. But I still think KMD is scum.

He's voting you, claims to be willing to vote zoraster and Hoopla, yet he brings up KMD quite forcefully. And KMD is doing pretty good with the lurking so far, with slight pressure from Elmo (and maybe others I didn't notice).

I'm not willing to vote Hoopla. Maybe Zoraster.
Damn, you're right. I'm scum with KMD. I should distance more forcefully by voting him. But NO ONE ELSE VOTE KMD, PLEASE. I'M JUST DISTANCING AND DON'T WANT HIM TO ACTUALLY GET LYNCHED BECAUSE HE'S ONE OF OUR POWER ROLES.

unvote; vote: KMD

@Seraph: Well then SUCK ON THIS.

Vote: Zoraster

.......?

Your play confounds me.

You said that I was wagoning to get someone lynched. I was proving you wrong. (Then hero comes along etc.)

How does that prove him wrong? Just because it's a vote for someone other than Hoopla? Zoraster was one vote behind her, and you're taking credit for not-wagoning?

Vote Zoraster

Clearly no one is as interested in Hero as I am.

What changed from when you voted me to make you say that? A few people posted and said nothing either way about me.

Does it kinda sorta have to do with the above? ^^^

It's quite likely the same. =)

Yeah. The problem is it contradicts my own limited experience with her. >.>
Bleh.

PLUMEN
EKIM
KMD

Whoosh, but I get the feeling you two aren't scum together.

@Spy: I really don't think the Rhinox paragraph about the prods is scummy. But Rhinox needs to play some more offense.

(skipping some topics due to limited time)

I wish I had buddies forced to ally with me.

You have a small army of chainsaw and pure-meta defenders. You don't

need

buddies.

REMEMBER, I DON'T WANT A WAGON TO FORM ON MY BUDDY KMD. PLEASE DON'T QUICKLYNCH HIM LIKE I PRETENDED TO WANT TO DO AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 1.

[Herodotus]

While we're here, Hero, what about Spy's acknowledgment of the validity of the Hoopla wagon while deciding to stay off it seemed Townish to you?

If he was scum, I thought he would have either joined it or disagreed with it.

[Herodotus]

Be lazy and ISO me in NY111. Scum like to attack me and my 'bad' theory

(You say bad, I say different. >.>)

.

It's all in my Wiki. Check out NY111 where everyone attacks me for having bad theory.

I didn't find much of use there; more please? Recent games are best. (Also, smaller games would help, I don't want to read 60 pages.) I'm not going to waste hours randomly choosing games from your wiki either.

I already did that.
How others reacted to you in that game has zero correlation with your alignment in this game. It's you I'm interested in. How accurate of a read on you do you want me to have?

[Herodotus]

Why are Spy and Hero having a long, drawn-out conversation about meta which has nothing to do with anything?

Because he went right off the crazy train and I was trying to figure out where he was coming from BUT ALAS ...

In due time I'll get back to that, believe you me.

We can multitask. Do you have questions?

Also, how do you feel about Zoraster 508 and 516?

The more I see, the more I agree with the Hero/KMD scumteam theory.

/me breathes a sigh of RELIEF THAT YOU'RE NOT VOTING MY SCUMBUDDY, and considers you a bit more suspicious due to your parked vote.
Mix that with the worst chainsaw defense ever and bake with your low content, and I'd be willing to lynch Amished.

I wish we weren't pushing toward the deadline, but it's in 36 hours. Saintkerrigan needs to vote.
Zoraster, given that DGB won't be lynched today, will you be moving your vote, or not?

[Herodotus]

What is the Law of Averages that everyone is talking about?

It's another name for the Gambler's Fallacy. In this context, it means "Zorblag has been town 9 times in a row in other games, so he must be scum here to balance that."

[Herodotus]

Given your page 26 idea of me distancing from KMD, and Vas apparently going along with it, that seemed the best way to get a KMD wagon into contention at this late stage.
Was your reasoning for thinking I'm scum only that I was fos'ing a buddy and voting a townie?
Doesn't that argument depend on assuming KMD's alignment to be scum?
Is the line "I suppose I could vote KMD; but..." distancing from a buddy while voting a townie?

[Herodotus]

I could see several people voting for KMD who currently are not.
DGB, Vasudeva, Spyrex, Elmo, Rhinox, and Plumegranite have all talked about it with varying amounts of consideration (I'll grant that getting DGB on a wagon I support, and Spyrex on a wagon Rhinox supports, could be a challenge.) Hoopla, seriously or not, named him as a suspect. Amished is trying to look like he might suspect KMD.
ekiM, ooba, Tajo, SaintK, Seraphim, Zoraster, and Zorblag are all potential KMD voters; I see only you and PZ as definte no's. I don't consider this wagon impossible, or my vote wasted.

@Seraphim: you had Zoraster as worse than Hoopla. When you switched from Vas, why did you skip Zor and vote Hoopla?

[Herodotus]

For the record, my list of "maybe" 's is based on skimming an ISO of each of those players. Most haven't mentioned him recently, none defended him as far as I could see. mith and PZ were excluded because I don't believe they would remove themselves from Hoopla's wagon.

[Herodotus]

Anywho, me no likey any of the options but out of them lynch Hoops, Vig Vas, is the one I like.

Vig Vas, who wasn't on your scumlist, and let the person you've been voting all day, who was on your scumlist, wake up tomorrow? Why?

[Herodotus]

Is the line "I suppose I could vote KMD; but..." distancing from a buddy while voting a townie?

I'd be willing to switch to KMD, but I don't think it's going to happen.

I found one of KMD's buddies...

[Herodotus]

Anywho, me no likey any of the options but out of them lynch Hoops, Vig Vas, is the one I like.

Vig Vas, who wasn't on your scumlist, and let the person you've been voting all day, who was on your scumlist, wake up tomorrow? Why?

Want flip of Vas more.
KMD gets a lot easier and easier to read as time goes on IMO.

Mmmmm. why do you want a flip of Vas, since there is a possibility of janitoring??? We might get NO FLIP at all. Lynching for "information" is like, the worst possible reason in this game - at least until the scum have used up their lynch mop on a player.

We were talking about a vig shot. Any player who is vigged can't be janitored.

[Herodotus]

Could we have prods? Saintkerrigan definitely qualifies, others probably do.
I was expecting Zorblag would be back from V/LA before now.

@KMD: If you're in the timezone I think you're in, 2 or 3 AM would be after the deadline.

[Herodotus]

I just had the thought that Hooplascum is letting herself get lynched to allow the Janshenanigans come into play.
hmph.
Shouldn't we lynch the one between Hoops/Vas that we want the flip of LESS.

Your thought is that the scum decided to give up a member of their team and use up their 1-shot powerrole on day 1 just so that the town wouldn't know that the scum had given up a member of their team? Is that like the popular military strategy "shoot and bury one quarter of your own soldiers at the beginning of the war so the enemy won't be able to account for them later"? ... a bit silly.

^^ That's what I wanted to post yesterday in 707, but I was worried it might endanger Hoopla's plan because the scum would retract their use of the janitor. In fact, Elli gains some small number of scumpoints for trying to tie janitored-hoopla to scum-hoopla. It's something that either scum or town might do, however it would normally have helped the scum more than the town.

---

Ironically, I'm more concerned that Hoopla wants to play the too townie to be scum card. Just tossing that out there for future reference.

It's the future.
I saw Hoopla's breadcrumb right away (in fact, I thought it was obvious, and I'm surprised that at least one of the scum didn't catch it, or if they did, I'm surprised they still used the janitor day 1.)
My first reaction was that maybe I should go ahead and vote Hoopla just to help her carry out her plan:

Votes that seem very safe - very safe indeed. To some, that line will be extra reason to vote for me.

Indeed.

because I had the impression that she would want any townies who saw her breadcrumb to vote her, just to get her to L-1.
... although I also realized that only a (vanilla) townie would want to do what she said she would do, so she "must be" a townie.
But there was some WIFOM: what if she was scum hoping that some townies noticed the breadcrumb and decided she must be town because of it? Hence the comment quoted above that I was more concerned she wanted to play the too townie to be scum card than the too scummy to be scum card*. Ultimately, I decided that her weak play meant that she was genuine about trying to draw votes. Therefore, she was almost certainly town.
When she voted me in post 507, I figured she realized I had seen her breadcrumb and was trying to get me to vote her. So, I considered it again...
But decided that intentionally lynching a townie is less good than trying to lynch scum. And also, if she was lynched, the lynch wagon would be most analyzable if the scum had to work for their mislynch.
So I kept scumhunting, and soon made it clear that I wouldn't be voting her. I even considered going so far as to point out her breadcrumb as evidence of her being town, but that would just have doubled the WIFOM issue and convinced everyone that she and I must be scumbuddies.

* I'm shocked no one ever called me on this bizarre comment. What did you all think I saw in her that was too townie to be scum? Other than her secret plan, she stopped looking townie pretty early D1.

So... if I was scum, then the scum would have known about her plan from page 20. That doesn't clear me, but it's submitted for consideration.

Also, I want to know whether anyone else can demonstrate that they saw Hoopla's breadcrumb in advance. As far as I'm concerned, anyone who saw it is very likely town, because I'm somewhat confident that no one on the scumteam caught it.

@Hoopla: <3
I'm glad your plan worked. I was worried that day 1 was going to end with "Hoopla - vanilla townie, lynched day 1". You were playing a big gambit. You might want to disguise breadcrumbs more deeply in the future.
And I now understand why you suspected me, although if you had considered that I might have understood you all along, I think you would have had the opposite impression. (Or more likely you would have changed your plan out of the fear that I might be scum.)

[Herodotus]

Ohh I applaud it. I think we could have got 95% of the results and an all but confirmed town AND a different lynch if you had dropped that bomb without the hammer fo' sho and that's what I'm gritting my teeth at.

Reaaaaly? Good gravy girl

If she had explained what she was doing without actually placing the self-hammer, then (a) the scum could have retracted their use of the ability, and/or (b) there would have been some doubts that the gambit might have been staged (would you believe someone who, in response to a wagon forming on them, claimed that they were only pretending to act scummy?)

[Herodotus]

I'm not seeing how anything productive is going to come out of nightkill speculation just now, and I do see a rather big negative (Vig-fishing).

For that (and other reasons):

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

I agree with mith.

Amished's opinions:

TOWN:

PZ
VV

MILD SCUM:

ooba
Troll
Hoopla

SCUM:

Hero
KMD

But then again he was hardly pushy about it.

I think that's oversimplified/inaccurate. I have little doubt he was suspicious of Seraphim, for instance (see his ISO 20.) But more importantly, this is further vig-fishing, done indirectly.

---

The use of the janitor means that the scum had much less reason than usual to avoid the Hoopla wagon (though if the competing wagons (zora, Vas and to a lesser extent KMD) were on townies, they also had little reason to care enough to be on it.) However, they DID bother to cover up Hoopla. The question is, why?

Because it was used on a presumable townie, this doesn't matter as much as it could have, but in theory, the janitor role made the scum have slightly less incentive to bus each other before it was used. Using it on the first member of their team to be lynched would have been the sensible play.

[Herodotus]

The question is, why?

I meant to write my guess about the answer, but I ran out of time.
Either
1. the scum were on hoopla's wagon and didn't want to be noticed (but it seems unnecessary for them to be voting hoopla heavily unless there was a wagon on one of their own team that was seriously competing with the wagon on hoopla)
2. hoopla was scum (unlikely for obvious reasons)
3. the scum undervalue the janitor - I think if it was used well, it could have been worth at least one mislynch - and just decided to have 'two day ones' as someone put it on day 0
... or some combination of 1 and 3.
4. idk

[Herodotus]

Kmd is claiming track on elmo to someone?

If it was tajo, elmo should shoot himself today (or) be lynched tomorrow.
If it was Amished, I see no reason why elmo should be lynched; or why kmd choose to soft claim today.

If it was someone else (and was blocked by JK\WD), we should take a call on how scummy target was.

Could you elaborate please? I'm not following this post at all.

[Herodotus]

And if so shouldn't Elmo claim before we start discussing what our response to his various claim possibilities would be?

On first and second read, mith's logic looks correct. It may be best if he just posts whether he did or did not target Amished. If he says he did not, then we have a liar among the two.

[Herodotus]

@Spy: Letting the vig take care of Elmo frees up the

town

to go hunting for the other scum. Isn't that just as good, if not better, due to generating wagons to analyze? Only downside I see is the possibility of outing more PR's, but (1) that risk is always present in the day game, and (2) KMD is now nearly confirmed as a town PR, so the scum already know who they're likely to kill.

And the advantages of vig-elmo, even if you consider it a very small chance, seem to make it worth the cost of waiting for his death if he's scum.

[Herodotus]

Welcome back to the internet, and welcome to the game.

Let's assume Elmo is telling the truth (he has a good argument, so I think only "the real vig" would be confident in saying he's scum, and we don't want a claim.)
Either KMD is telling the truth, or he is both reckless and lucky.

I was planning to copy+paste votecounts and color code (with Elmo and KMD having their own color between green and black,) but at the moment I don't feel like doing that much work.

@Mod: I don't see anything in the rules about restricted colors; are there any?

An observation: mith has been the most helpful person so far regarding strategy, but is giving me a negative gut feeling outside of that. It might just be the result of his tunneling on a townie yesterday.

[Herodotus]

I'd like to know why PZ voted ooba and why Elli voted ekim.

Plumegranate, DGB, ekim, and Elli all deserve some attention today as possible scum.

[Herodotus]

Plumegranate, DGB, ekim, and Elli all deserve some attention today as possible scum.

If Hero flips scum, on of the above players is his buddy, and it ain't me.

If I flip scum, all of my buddies are on that list. Also, the earth is flat.

I forgot to mention Papa Zito and Seraphim in that list. Right now, I think one of those six people should be the D2 lynch. I'll have preferences later. I also forgot SaintK was in this game, but I'm willing to wait on that playerslot since I don't have a read. (Saintkerrigan is MME, right?

@mod: could you update the first post regarding replacements? Thanks.

)

[Herodotus]

Anyway, this discussion is pretty much also a waste of electricity.

If Elmo is scum, he will die N2 unless the scum get lucky with a RB/JK action. I cannot see any possible pro-town reason for Spyrex to continue to argue against Elmo. If he's right, then he's vig-fishing; if he's wrong, then he's accomplishing nothing.

[Herodotus]

Sorry for being unavailable for a while. I hope to have some time soon to read and post.
I was getting a minor town vibe from Vas starting toward the end of day 1, though I wanted more information from him because it's only based on a gut evaluation of his reactions to seraphim.
I've skimmed the past couple pages. No one has looked very scummy to me during day 2, except possibly seraphim if I look at his posts in a particular way (which I imagine is probably what SK did,) or DGB a little.
I have no idea why some people think PZ is town. My read on him is neutral at best.

[Herodotus]

Just because you're voting a player does NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT THE MILLIONTH POWER MEAN YOU ARE SCUMHUNTING.

Yes. It does. Why? BECAUSE I SAY SO. MUHAHAHHAHAHAHAH.

Serious answer: Yes I am.

Serious-er answer: No really, I am.

Assertions aren't always helpful.

1. false case on VV(not proven)
2. Theory attack????(I don't understand why this point is named so, ties in with 1, not proven)
3. Over-clarification(hardly scummy)
4. Neutral reaction to Hoopla's gambit(spin)

You cannot prove that shit. These are INTERPRETATIONS. How hard is it for you to understand that INTERPRETATIONS are hardly ever the same level as proof? You do your fair share of interpretations and this 'defense' you put up is terrible.

Your hypocrisy pains me. One could say that your self-defense is all INTERPRETATIONS which are not the same level as proof.

I'm thinking I could tolerate a Vas lynch, though he's not more likely than others to be scum.
I don't like that he's said multiple times that he doesn't want to be in this game, apparently without considering that he has the option to request replacement. A lynch would give him the out he claims to want.
And he's been getting in the way.

first point, second example:
VasudeVa's main point against my argument during that point in the game was that I had made a "lazy bandwagoning case" rather than actually addressing the points I had made against him. I still maintain that that post is an appeal to emotion, or perhaps more accurately "ad hominem". Let's take a look at the post again:

Yawn at the OMGUS accusation. Does anyone ever believe that scum are more likely to do that? Lazy, lazy~

If we break down this post, he first tries to discredit the argument by asserting the following: "Scum are not more likely to make an OMGUS vote than town." This is also a strawman for the real argument, which is that he is discrediting my argument by calling it lazy rather than going after the points themselves. By continuing to push that I am being "lazy"(note the use of the word "yawn"), he doesn't actually have to answer any of my points because the case is "lazy" and therefore not a case at all and not worth answering. This IS appeal to emotion. Rather than answer the points or prove they are unsubstantial, he strawmans a few key points and says the case is lazy, probably made by lazy scum, therefore I don't need to answer the points because I don't need to answer no posts by no scum.

Do you make your cases to be answered by the person against whom they are composed, or to convince others? Any strawman/AtE/dismissiveness on his part isn't going to prevent others from agreeing with you.

I think you're being coached to play like this because it will make it difficult for you to be lynched so long as they continue to play the too scummy to be scum card. I postulate that scum may even be using you to draw the vig with your play.

WHAAAAAAAT? EXPLAIN NOW PLZ.

Whoops. Looks like there was a giant hole in my logic there, lol. I'm pretty sure there was more to that point so I'll expand on that.

It's a win-win situation for scum. Have VV act in a VI-ish manner. Players dismiss him as VI. He isn't a strong player anyway, so if he comes under heavy scrutiny, they can bus him easily. Also, if there's a lot of noise about VV in the thread, that might help overshadow the other scum in the topic and make VV a more likely vig target.

It's incredible speculation and there's no real basis behind it besides my speculation.

The next logical step is to guess that the other scum might be bussing him. I don't understand why people are ruling that out between the two of you, but it's also much too early to say it's the case.

I don't like Seraphim 975. It looks like Seraphim decided it's only worth trying to figure out that someone is town if the other person cooperates. It could be frustration, or scumminess.

And then he OMGUS'd ooba a while back, a wagon I don't buy.

Seems like a chainsaw to me! A soft one, maybe with kittens.

That's not what chainsaw means. A chainsaw defense would be if he said ooba was town

because

you voted/attacked him, but that's not what he said.

@Papa Zito:
Post 1005: serious? (y/n)

@Rhinox:
Post 1014: serious? (y/n)

Now that you mention it, 100% of my reads are self-meta projections...

I love this line.

[Herodotus]

Your hypocrisy pains me. One could say that your self-defense is all INTERPRETATIONS which are not the same level as proof.

I'm asserting that it is evidence that I am Town. I don't think I said that it proves I'm town, it just makes me more likely to be Town.

Couldn't Seraphim say the same?

[Herodotus]

Your hypocrisy pains me. One could say that your self-defense is all INTERPRETATIONS which are not the same level as proof.

I'm asserting that it is evidence that I am Town. I don't think I said that it proves I'm town, it just makes me more likely to be Town.

EBWOP: He offered some counterpoints to SK's case; did his counterpoints not make him more likely to be town? You reacted as if he needed to PROVE HE'S NOT SCUM.

[Herodotus]

Your hypocrisy pains me. One could say that your self-defense is all INTERPRETATIONS which are not the same level as proof.

I'm asserting that it is evidence that I am Town. I don't think I said that it proves I'm town, it just makes me more likely to be Town.

Couldn't Seraphim say the same?

True. But I'm denying him as much as he's denying me so we're good.

No, that's not good. I can't find the right words to explain what I mean, but an approximation is: that is treating the game like a personal competition.

What makes SK's case on me more valid and "good" than my defense of it? What makes my counterpoints terrible?

Vas, answering this would help a lot.

[Herodotus]

Possible slip in that she is now assuming that tajo was the scum kill

While I partially agree, I think it's best not to get into this unless we're willing to out the possibly-existent real vig.
On a related note, if there are two vigs in this game, and we only had two deaths by coincidence, the consequences of that may be bad if Elmo is one of them (but okay if he's scum.) I don't think that means that anyone should counterclaim, or even that we should change course from what mith suggested at the beginning of the day, I'm just mentioning that it's possible, since it just occured to me.

@Rhinox:
Post 1014: serious? (y/n)

Serious, but not a strong consideration. Its interesting, but circumstantial only. Something I'd be curious if it was valid, in the post game discussion.

The way I'm reading it, what you said was "the scum chose a tracker, therefore someone who supported rolecop+roleblocker is more likely than usual to be scum." That makes absolutely no sense to me, to the degree that it's making me suspect you.

[Herodotus]

@Rhinox:
Do you have any clarification regarding the second quote from post 1052?

[Herodotus]

I don't like this -- for the first time ever in a game, there isn't a single player for whom I couldn't make an argument (to myself) that they are town.

vote: Papa Zito

(yes, that includes him)

I consider his day 0 play anti-town. (Counterpoint: he was bold about it, and didn't try to actively lurk or pretend to be helpful.)
He was on the janitor wagon, but considering how the scum used it, I no longer think they went out in force to support it.
The first time he cooperated with outside-the-box town strategy was when he waited the 24 hours while scum assigned their roles to vote. Considering he'd already called for a lynch of Hoopla, and voted her right away, his cooperation was only a formality. Looks a little like following the herd, the opposite of the above counterpoint. Scum angle is: fitting in just to fit in; town angle is: he wasn't trying to fit in before that.
Being on the hoopla wagon is +scumpoints. Joining it first neutralizes some of said scumpoints. But the tunneling amounted to a lack of voting for any scum.
During the second half of day 1, PZ considered Vas a good candidate (apparently either Vas or Troll was his second choice after Hoopla) for lynch. On day 2, he had not the least finger of suspicion for Vas.
He supported the RB from the beginning, which by his own claims against ooba, gives the scum an extra attempt to find the vig each night. I don't support that argument, BUT his own case against ooba works against him.

[Herodotus]

Can't decide whether zoraster or vas is scummier and I don't think both are scum.

Of the two, I'd lean toward Zor at this point.
In fact, I'll reread Zor asap.

@Elli:
Yes, and my original preference would have been RB + Assassin, too. But the focal point of PZ's argument about ooba is the idea that giving the scum a RB allows them an additional means of finding the vig. It's hypocritical.

[Herodotus]

Also, PZ ignores that ooba supported seeking a hider claim, and PZ ostensibly thinks that there are hiders. A hider claim would have meant having no RB.
(It is odd how ooba was surprised that there was a hider claim, but it may have just been because he expected the scum wouldn't have wanted the town to have such a role.)

One related thing I think suggests ooba-town is the postscript in ooba ISO 2. Gut says that the scum wouldn't want the town to be aware that the scum would be allowed to select which of them received the PR's, especially given his reason for bringing it up.

[Herodotus]

I don't get what you keep saying about getting info the elmo-tajo thing.
You being zor.

And what do you think aboue people OTHER than DGB.

+1


Sera, your call to consolidate on fewer wagons was definitely self-serving given the suspicions some have had of you. But that's okay, neither townies nor scum want to be lynched (usually.)

[Herodotus]

Zoraster, Vas, Rhinox, PZ, and probably others (judging by 1109, Spyrex):
We have a deadline. No stalling, please.

vote: Zoraster

I

think

that's L-2. I hope that the big wagon on him is NOT going to make the others feel that they can relax and lurk.

[Herodotus]

UNVOTE: Zoraster
VOTE: Papa Z

[Herodotus]

UNVOTE: Zoraster
VOTE: Papa Z

'splain?

I hope that the big wagon on him is NOT going to make the others feel that they can relax and lurk.

All right, I'm at L-1. Before anyone hammers, give me half a day or so to get my thoughts on all the players

I'll process later, but obviously post 1131 is no good.

@Zoraster: unless you are scum who considers your lynch inevitable, please try for real. ATM, it looks like that's what you are.

@KMD: there are about 4 days left, right? That's enough time for any wagon.

[Herodotus]

mith's defense regarding his logic is valid. Post 1170 accurately explains the issue as I see it.
That doesn't mean that mith isn't scum, but that issue isn't a reason to think he is.

Zoraster's posting has a slight genuine feel to it, which makes me wish we had longer deadlines so we could expect more from him over time and look at more options, like Plumegranate and Rhinox.

I could possibly join a DGB lynch.

[Herodotus]

Come on folks, it's not TOO LATE to lynch VasudeVa. Bleagh.

Unvote
Vote: mith

The zoraster wagon feels wrong and I think KMD has outlined the reasons for why mith is the right lynch for today.

^^^ scummy

Shock and awe VV thinks someone who think's he's scum is scum. WHAT A SURPRISE.

Your conclusion is ____

I'm willing to move to zoraster before deadline, but for now
VOTE: DrippingGoofball

[Herodotus]

If we no lynch and hero is still voting dgb, don't let him get away with it tomorrow.

That's silly, KMD.
Are mith, Adum, and Elmo all scum because they've posted since your post 1210 and didn't vote zoraster, which means they must want to no lynch (along with anyone else who does the same)? Or is there something different about me?

Also,

^ why is DGB town?

[Herodotus]

Hm, my second paragraph was a bit of a strawman, but I still think KMD was being silly.

Regardless, if we nolynch and I'm still voting DGB and zor is at L-1 and DGB is not at L-1, it's because I lost electricity/internet access.

[Herodotus]

I'm here.
Skimming, I see Zor's at L-1, and the next closest wagon is at L-7.
Not the worst option available, but now I'm pretty sure he's town. I'll hammer if we can't get a mass check-in of people who would prefer a different lynch very soon.

Iamausername, I'd love to hear from you before this day ends if possible.

[Herodotus]

Nothing?
Fine.

VOTE: Zoraster

[Herodotus]

Your conclusion is ____

Readily apparent?

No. Are you concluding something about his alignment based on that? He's been consistently displaying OMGUS. If I understand correctly from your previous games and your discussion in MD, you consider consistency a town-tell. So if you in particular were to draw any conclusion from that, it should be that he's more likely town -- you seem to be implying the opposite with your response.

[Herodotus]

And Jan was still way overvalued as far as being a worry.

You could have used it much, much more effectively. At least, in theory. If you had janitored DGB, you might have gotten a Rhinox lynch, for example. (Although that particular situation had other overriding issues.) Or Zoraster; I think you could have gotten some dividends from people thinking he was prob-scum.

Bah to the last three lynches; I would have opposed all of them strongly. And bah to "Plumegranite is so obvtown," "Plumegranite is 100% confirmed town," etc. I would have pushed for their lynch starting from day 2, but figured I couldn't get anywhere due to their V/LA until deadline. And cross-bussing with DGB is practically a scumtell.

But Spyrex had me fooled. I should have put more weight on his Hoopla vote in 545.

[Herodotus]

people equate weak play with scummy play which is garbage reasoning at the level this game should have been played at.

+1

I thought PZ was either a hider or scum who wanted to keep a fakeclaim option open. Then Iam softclaimed vig. I'm a little surprised you didn't shoot him for that, Fate. A fake softclaim trumps the appearance of townieness.