Mini 1023 - City Watch Mafia - Game Over!


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Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:11 am

Post by Plum »

I, [recruit's name], do solemnly swear by [recruit's deity of choice] to uphold the Laws and Ordinances of the city of Ankh-Morpork, serve the public trust, and defend the subjects of His/Her [delete whichever is inappropriate] Majesty [name of reigning monarch] without fear, favour, or thought of personal safety; to pursue evil-doers and protect the innocent, laying down my life if necessary in the cause of said duty, so help me [aforesaid deity]. Gods Save the King/Queen [delete which is inappropriate].
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Post Post #23 (isolation #1) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:46 am

Post by Plum »

Vote: jimfinn
for thinking Lord Vetinari is a king.
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Post Post #29 (isolation #2) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 2:51 pm

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That seems like such a canned scumtell that I am immediately satisfied with my RVS skillz.
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Post Post #32 (isolation #3) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 3:03 pm

Post by Plum »

He
is
pretty new. However.

Jim, in your own words, why do you consider a player being third on a wagon a scumtell?
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Post Post #35 (isolation #4) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 3:19 pm

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Dang that is a good offer. If I'm hungry come breakfast time I might look into it.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #5) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 3:26 pm

Post by Plum »

Yeah, but don't Townies also want to create pressure on players to try to figure out if they're scum or not, especially when there's no other information to analyze?
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Post Post #48 (isolation #6) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 3:40 pm

Post by Plum »

TheButtonmen wrote:
Plum wrote:Yeah, but don't Townies also want to create pressure on players to try to figure out if they're scum or not, especially when there's no other information to analyze?
Leading question is leading.
Newb Town is makes me want to tear my hair out. Let this run its course a bit; I think I can still analyze it despite leading question.

EDIT - Jim. Which vote in this game has been the most suspect and why?

SECOND EDIT: Jim, please start making with the sense.
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Post Post #50 (isolation #7) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 3:46 pm

Post by Plum »

I'm trying to figure out a way to feel out if he's being scummy or not through the newb-static. He's still the best place for my vote; I don't have a better and he's acting in ways which may well be scummy; they just demand some further investigation.

VOTE COUNT


jimfinn (5): Tasky, Plum, Thor665, Chronopie, FakeGod
Thor665 (2): KHG, jimfinn
Plum (1): VasudeVa
Tasky (1): Budja
FakeGod (1): TheButtonmen

Not Voting (2): Narsis, Mysterio

With 12 alive, 7 votes are needed to lynch.
Last edited by molestargazer on Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #52 (isolation #8) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 3:54 pm

Post by Plum »

Would you care to back that statement up with data?
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Post Post #54 (isolation #9) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 4:08 pm

Post by Plum »

Have you actually gone and looked to see what percentage of third votes on very early wagons were made by scum? Even a cursory look at that?

I;m going to get really tired of this soon.
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Post Post #97 (isolation #10) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 11:55 am

Post by Plum »

UNVOTE: jimfinn

VOTE: Narsis

Attempts to be casual, jokey; ignores everything that's gone on, even the chance to acknowledge that stuff has happened for a complete nothing. He doesn't even end up with a vote on anyone.

In other news, analysis of the past page or two coming soon.
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Post Post #99 (isolation #11) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:02 pm

Post by Plum »

This makes me feel little better about you, to be honest.
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Post Post #103 (isolation #12) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 2:21 pm

Post by Plum »

FakeGod wrote:
Plum to Narsis wrote:This makes me feel little better about you, to be honest.
Which one? The falling into "trap" or Narsis admitting he got nuthing but nulls?
The latter.

Narsis - now what's there to discuss?
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Post Post #164 (isolation #13) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 9:15 am

Post by Plum »

Thor665 wrote:I think the only way massclaim helps town is if scum haven't been given fakeclaims. I haven't found a mod yet who doesn't give fake claims in theme games.
I have but I doubt that this game is one of the exception. HIGHLY doubt it. Mod quality here is a bit too high for that, given that this theme/game style doesn't seem suited for no safeclaims. Really, a mass name claim here would be unhelpful and counterproductive.
KHG wrote:I'm going to
Unvote: Thor
(my previous random vote) and
Vote: Mysterio
.

No one pressed Mysterio at all for any information, yet he writes:
Mysterion wrote:Well, I guess I don't need to hide it anymore. Yes, my power is only good for today. Tomorrow I will revert back to a VT. Hence me not really caring about claiming early, since getting NK would only mean that town lost a VT.
We knew from the wording of the mod's day post that the power would only last a day. Claiming townie when a roleclaim was not necessary seems absolutely bizarre to me, especially the talk of getting night killed.

Was it necessary to claim? No. Was it really hurtful to the Town? Well, throwing in the VT bit was a little, but we can deal and it doesn't seem to be anything but a nulltell that he did it. The talking about NKing bit comes naturally in explaining why outing himself doesn't hurt the Town, as it won't lose the Town a powerrole by NK tonight.
KHG wrote:
@KHG, my point is claiming VT at this point isn't pro-town or pro-scum.
I think it's pro-scum; why would Mysterio hammer the point home that he his a townie when no one was asking for a roleclaim?

I can't think of a single reason.
Accident/absentminded inclusion of info; when explaining that his power was only one shot he expounded that otherwise he was a VT, something he shouldn't have done.

NO SHOOT WHY THE HECK ARE WE NAMECLAIMING?

HOWEVER Mysterio pressing for the nameclaim is stupid/scummy, hard to say which. Tasky points this out beautifully.

KHG seems to be fairly new here; talking about people mentioning their Town/VT status is a fairly sophisticated (though very unpredictable) tell to be talking about. I'm not really sure what that indicates, but it's worth noting and keeping in mind as the day progresses.
Mysterio wrote:
FakeGod wrote:With so many votes on jim? When you posted this, jim had 3 players voting him.

How could scum "jump in and hammer"? I think you're just trying to find an excuse to unvote him and keep your vote open.
With my vote, it would have been essentially 5 players voting for him, putting him at L-2 with 7 other players who could have jumped on the bandwagon.

Anyway, my lynch seems inevitable, so when I flip town, be sure to note the one's who were most eager to get me out of the way: Tasky and KHG, with Narsis pretty much contributing nothing the entire game and then comes back to immediately jump on the bandwagon forming on me.
Trying to bully people off his lynch. I like the Nobby Nobbs claim, but am conflicted. Need to think about flavor more; this may well be the best Day 1 wagon available. Need to see where the other players are on this whole business and think.

Back soon.
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Post Post #171 (isolation #14) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 2:41 pm

Post by Plum »

In this case it's slightly more likely than in general, but in either case powerroles don't claim VT to avoid getting NK'd because in general you don't claim unless you're in danger of lynch, and a VT claim in and of itself is generally not grounds for stopping a lynch, so the player would just get lynched instead of nightkilled.

Don't worry about not lynching PRs; DO worry about finding scum and getting them lynched.
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Post Post #173 (isolation #15) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 3:01 pm

Post by Plum »

Ha.
Hahahahaha.
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Post Post #237 (isolation #16) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 11:46 am

Post by Plum »

Reading up. I've been busy, bit pressed for time, and I apologize.

Tasky: I didn't say that claiming VT was entirely without negative repercussions for the Town; it isn't, but I think they're the sort of repercussions we can deal with without undue strain. It might have been anti-Town, but I don't clearly see a scum motivation for doing it as opposed to the likelihood of Town doing it by accident/thoughtlessly. It's a nulltell in and of itself, and yes, I'm willing to hold him on the strength of the Nobby Nobbs claim itself for a bit. Which is not to say that some of Mysterio's further actions have not been scummy, nor that I'm not keeping a close eye on him and what he's doing as the game continues.
jimfinn wrote:I'm starting to feel a bit of suspicion towards VV for that vote as well, and I would also say that I don't see much of a case against Narsis right now - almost too off the wall to be scum - I would think scum would try to blend in more. I'm going to read FakeGod in iso now and see what I think, but I still find Mysterio PE#1
Too scummy to be scum - it's not necessarily a fallacy, but be careful in its application. When you have this feeling, try to boil it down to an answer to the question 'is there significant scum motivation to be acting in this way?' [/IC talk]

I agree with Buttonmen on VV's voting Narsis for pressure. Seems weak and wishy-washy - jump on a bandwagon without identifying a reason for the vote, then when called out on it say it was for pressure and that Narsis is in no immediate danger. It certainly doesn't show very much about who VV most suspects, which I'd much rather know and much rather he focus on. I find that not doing that and choosing instead to play around with pressuring and wagons and excuses disguises or attempts to excuse a lack of scumhunting.
VasudeVa wrote:It's not a contradiction. I'm waiting for a wagon on Narsis to build up so that he'll eventually get the proverbial 'gun to his head'.
Wait, so you want Narsis to have a gun to his head but you excuse your vote by saying that you're not the one holding a gun to his head? Uh.
Thor665 wrote:At the time you had null tells on every player in the game Mysterio had already role- claimed and power-claimed.

You had a null read on him at that point? Seriously? And not just a null read, but a read where you decided to self-vote, unvote, and then joke around with Plum when she voted you?
This all over. You either have null reads on everyone (and that's a bad enough sign) or you don't.

Then again we could all compromise and lynch KHG. I think someone's bussing him and some Townies or other are catching onto him, so we might just cut to the chase and string him up now.

Dislike Tasky's attempted defense of Narsis against Thor. Self-voting may be null, but joking around and having only null reads at that point in the game, when some serious material was under discussion, is generally likely to be a scummy action. Thor's case focused on Narsis' lack of commentary on his top suspects and in general the fact that he's contributed nothing to this game while latching onto the largest wagon . . . you attempt to excuse him for the 'trap' clumsily as well. Oh, and your attack on my case on Narsis:
Tasky wrote:what's the difference between attempting to be casual, jokey and actually being it? if you are referring to the self-vote, as I already said... it's an absolute null-tell
is it scummy not to vote in the beginning of the game?
this is your whole case on him...
The difference is that scum may feign lightheartedness and lack of concern early in the game to avoid actually participating. Narsis was in a position where contribution was basically demanded, but instead attempted to fool around. Again, self-voting is not a nulltell if in context it is aiding and abetting scum behavior, like avoiding scumhunting. I'd be on Narsis' case just as much had he voted then quickly unvoted anyone in the game that way; the one he happened to do that to was himself. My case on him further includes his commplete lack of reads. He's simply not scumhunting and not trying to scumhunt. Townies have direct motivation to scumhunt. Scum don't have
direct
motivation to scumhunt, so generally speaking avoiding scumhunting is a MAJOR SCUMTELL.

The entire post there REEKS of something bad - either desperately trying to get the Mysterio wagon through early, or a backfiring attempt to relieve pressure on Narsis (either because you're scum with him or because you think you may later get credit for dissipating pressure on a Townie). In any case, it looks forced and possibly has a motivation seperate from the general scumhunting motivation.

VV, I've been busy. If you would care to check my activity against my other games, you'll see I've been giving this game about as much of its due as any of my other games these past few days. If you think I've been posting fluff, I'd like you to check my posts against their contexts and how much fluff was appropriate during the various stages of this game thus far. If you've seen me playing like I have as scum in other specifics, please specify and do not make vaguely incriminating statements like 'Plus I've seen her as scum before~' with no supporting evidence or cross-referencing.

I feel kinda upset; usually I have more semi-solid Town reads than scum reads. Right now I have like four strong scumreads and two, maybe three Townreads. BAD SIGN.

VV, calling scumteams before anyone flips (Town or scum, though obviously the latter will lead to more conclusive results) is poor thinking.
VasudeVa wrote:AHA. This is extremely suspicious. He expresses interest in the Narsis wagon and doesn't vote. I pressure him by calling him "70% scum". He tells me that he isn't voting for Narsis because voting Narsis puts Narsis at L-2.

He THEN VOTES Mysterio who has a larger wagon behind him.
Damn. Good point. Let's reread KHG for a bit and see what we turn up.
KHG wrote:And, is the double vote the power of "CHARISN'TMA"? In which case Mysterio would be Cpl. Nobbs?

I'm not saying these questions should be answered as of yet; just getting them out there...
ROLEFISH MUCH?
KHG wrote:I'm going to
Unvote: Thor
(my previous random vote) and
Vote: Mysterio
.

No one pressed Mysterio at all for any information, yet he writes:
Mysterion wrote:Well, I guess I don't need to hide it anymore. Yes, my power is only good for today. Tomorrow I will revert back to a VT. Hence me not really caring about claiming early, since getting NK would only mean that town lost a VT.
We knew from the wording of the mod's day post that the power would only last a day. Claiming townie when a roleclaim was not necessary seems absolutely bizarre to me, especially the talk of getting night killed.
NO ONE PRESSED MYSTERIO FOR INFORMATION??? WHAT WAS THE ROLEFISHING ABOVE? ARRRRRGH.
KHG wrote:
@KHG, my point is claiming VT at this point isn't pro-town or pro-scum.
I think it's pro-scum; why would Mysterio hammer the point home that he his a townie when no one was asking for a roleclaim?

I can't think of a single reason.
HE WASN'T 'I'M A TOWNIE' HE WAS 'MY ROLE IS VT'. THAT'S NOT SCREAMING ABOUT YOUR TOWN DRAW, THAT'S . . . ARGH. BUT in other ways he seems to be following some degree of internal consistency . . .

Will reread Tasky later. Might move my vote to one of {Tasky, KHG, VV} depending on how my gut reads and feelings develop but NOT BEFORE we hear more from Narsis and I can gauge his reactions and play in response to everything.
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Post Post #246 (isolation #17) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 6:00 pm

Post by Plum »

KHG, bringing up questions, even with that sort of disclaimer, is partly asking for answers to the question. Mentioning the questions does constitute rolefishing-prodding. What, did you expect to let the questions hang in the air - and you didn't say explicitly that they shouldn't be answered. You just said you didn't necessarily mean they should be at that point - it's speculating about info and prodding for answers - directly asking Mysterio about his role and powers - with a little disclaimer. The tone and intent still had to do with questions which were not put there to sit and look pretty. They were there to get speculation out in the open and directly increase the chances of everyone talking about it, especially Mysterio, the only person with the info you asked about. Disclaimer or not. It had distinct overtones of rolefishing. You directly asked questions about Mysterio's role. That counts as asking Mysterio for information, or pushing him to reveal information. This wouldn't be egregious if you didn't turn around directly and call Mysterio out for having given the info. You asked the questions. If you'd said 'oh shoot, I shouldn't have asked those questions because they shouldn't have been discussed right now' that would have been one thing. But you refuse to shoulder the weight of having asked some of the questions which caused the revelation of the info by Mysterio. That's hypocritical and opportunistic.

I am a VT = I don't have any abilities.
I'm a Townie = Look guys I am so completely and totally Town, really super Town!

The latter can be scummy; the former is by itself neutral. You tried to equate Mysterio's statement of #1 for the inherently suspect nature of #2.

My main problems with you aren't your desire to wait on a Narsis vote in and of itself. However, my desire not to move my vote yet springs from the fact that my reason for voting Narsis was related to his lack of participation, bag full of nullreads followed by a jump on a popular bandwagon for a mediocrely explained (at best) reason EDIT: Actually I think I understand it better now, and I might feel a little better about it. I need to gauge whether or not he's still avoiding contribution and content-posting or not, and if he posts, does it seem to be honest scumhunting or not.

@VV - yes, in general I find the idea of drawing scum less appealing than drawing Town, but there are always exceptions and I try to summon enthusiasm and concentration, in reasonable amounts, for all my games. Again I ask you to either make a direct comparison with some of my meta (which I have reason to believe you capable of) or to drop your poorly backed-up meta-based suspicions of me.

I think I understand VV's retraction of #228/#230 now; it was completely opaque before. I need a bit more time to parse it but on the surface the retraction looks legitimate (that is, not poor backtracking but correction of a normal mistake and probably a nulltell overall).
Budja wrote:The whole "defend Narsis" post by Tasky was odd but on the whole I don't think it was scummy, just weak.
The arguments were weak, yes. But an entire post devoted to knocking down every single person's reasons for voting Narsis? I just don't see why, from a normal Town perspective, even one with strong Town read, for whatever reason (heaven help me if I know how someone could get a better than neutral read on Narsis at this point) an entire post would be a sort of lowgrade attack on everyone who voted Narsis/their votes on Narsis. A few other Tasky things have been slightly on the odd side (like unvoting from a 5-player wagon on page 3 which he later stated was probably mainly Town-driven . . . again, worry about a quickhammer then? And if so, unvote a wagon which didn't seem shady/scum-driven?). At this point, having thought about it, I'd be more likely to call Mysterio newb-Town and Tasky possibly scum exploiting him.
Mysterio wrote:
FakeGod wrote:No one cc'd him, and I was assuming Col. Nobbs is town-sided.

But that
is
a good point.
Do you really expect a counterclaim this early? And Nobbs isn't exactly a pure character. In fact, he's
very
shifty in the stories. Why exactly do you assume that Nobbs would be town?
I like this post; it shows concentrated scumhunting/mindset reading from Mysterio without regard to how people see his character claim. It seems excellently Townish to me, looking back; in my read earlier someone mentioned it and I thought about it when looking over Tasky again. Tasky's extreme tunnelvision on Mysterio to the point that he attacks every single vote made on the competing wagon is worrisome. Tasky seems to be attacking Mysterio not merely to the exclusion of almost everyone else, but also seems to be attacking every single thing he does (and before anyone says anything, I'm nitpicking everything a
whole bunch
of players are doing, so ;))
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Post Post #261 (isolation #18) » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:26 am

Post by Plum »

Tasky, I've already explained why a scumbag would have motivation to joke around instead of delving into the content of the game at that point. It's not that he joked, is that he chose to joke instead of scumhunt, possibly chose to joke in order to distract from his refusal to scumhunt. I said I didn't care about the self-vote in and of itself. Being lazy itself may not be a scumtell, but deliberately avoiding making a scumhunting effort is.

Thor, methinks you are generally right there. I am, however, wondering certain things about, as we both stated, the motivations for attacking the entire Narsis wagon so strongly.
Tasky wrote:you either are incredibly stupid or you are scum (or both).
in both cases I don't want you in the endgame...
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mysterio
Tasky, do you now believe Mysterio to be more likely to be scummy, or more likely stupid, and why?

The longer Narsis stays solely reactive to various stuff which happens to be directed at him and avoids being a proactive scumhunter the happier I will be with my vote on him.
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Post Post #269 (isolation #19) » Tue Aug 17, 2010 9:59 am

Post by Plum »

Well, who's your top suspect right now? Sitting around without a vote on anyone is a common symptom of deficient scumhunting.
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Post Post #272 (isolation #20) » Tue Aug 17, 2010 10:31 am

Post by Plum »

Yeah that is a problem. Same basic problem I'm having with Narsis . . .
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Post Post #278 (isolation #21) » Tue Aug 17, 2010 1:40 pm

Post by Plum »

KHG wrote:
Budja wrote: ^ Explain this. Explain why you showed an interest in voting for Narsis. (and give me a proper answer this time.)
I didn't show an interest in voting for Narsis so as much I said I was willing to vote for him, just as I am willing to vote for everyone. Perhaps if you explained what was so
improper
about my previous answer, I could attempt to give you a
proper
answer.
Backtrack city, here we come! You clearly said "I'd like to hear Narsis' response before voting for him." This implies that you were not merely willing to vote for Narsis (apparently that's default status towards all other players for you; if you were merely as willing to vote him as anyone else, why state it at all?) but actively considering doing so, depending on his responses. You were considering it, and you were interested in it. You never stated why you would be. Please explain.

Also, while you're at it, explain what prompted you to unvote Mysterio.

Screw it; trying to get out of answering questions, plenty of other stuff including backtracking on the Mysterio wagon (first him claiming VT was directly scummy, then "I'm not intending to be confrontational, that claim is just
Mysterious
(ha) to me") for no explained reason, the rolefishing coupled with the outraged reaction to Mysterio's bite at the bait is more than enough to want KHG strung up.

UNVOTE: Narsis
VOTE: KHG

Who's with me?!
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Post Post #284 (isolation #22) » Tue Aug 17, 2010 3:20 pm

Post by Plum »

FakeGod, are you interested in evaluating the reasons for the wagon at all or just sort of making a neutral comment and passing on contributing to the question at hand at all?
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Post Post #298 (isolation #23) » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:51 pm

Post by Plum »

KHG, you had three votes on you. Why did you claim?
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Post Post #358 (isolation #24) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:41 am

Post by Plum »

Narsis wrote:
jimfinn wrote:VOTE: Narsis as the other two players with votes on them at the end of Day 1 are now dead.
so you think i killed them then?
WTH overdefensiveness.
VasudeVa wrote:Whoever this Vimes person is probably should claim his power. It looks like this is the games mechanic. All VTs then random townies get power roles.

Does the Charisntmha thingy D1 have anything to do with double voting? Any theories on what drunkenness does?
Please quit rolefishing. Vimes is more likely, flavorwise, to have his own regular power unconnected with DRUNKENNESS. That might not be the case, but I think that unless the power NEEDS to be claimed it ought to stay hidden.

TBM. Can we take a moment to consider FakeGod as possible scum who avoided tasty wagon on Town-KHG? I understand the case on VV and to a degree I agree with it, but.

I can't tell either way with VV anymore; Narsis may be looking a bit better; Budja's been sorta quiet but I agree with the FakeGod vote somewhat sooooo.

VV, calling wiki-tell ought to be a wiki-tell. Rolefishing is something which can be done by scum intentionally for scums' outright benefit. Your attempt to discredit TBM's legitimate concerns that way is bad.

That said. VV, you want an organized Town? Have you seen Town-alliances (which reportedly are beneficial even if scum slip into them)? Would you join one and why? The problem is if you're Town - which I'm slightly leaning towards over null right now - there's a lot of town infighting distracting from the real scumbags, and your play right now isn't doing anything to help the situation.
Chronopie wrote:Just saying Rolefishing is a Scum tell, doesn't help. As afaict it isn't much of one.

I know that I'm probably the antithesis of a good townie. And I know that I tend to Rolefish (sometimes inadvertently), ALOT. Alignment independent. Null tell.
Chainsaw defense much (well, for that to technically be the case VV would have to be scum with Chrono, but either way weird defense is weird)? VV, why do you think Chrono is Town?
FakeGod wrote:
Narsis wrote:
Chronopie wrote:Just saying Rolefishing is a Scum tell, doesn't help. As afaict it isn't much of one.

I know that I'm probably the antithesis of a good townie. And I know that I tend to Rolefish (sometimes inadvertently), ALOT. Alignment independent. Null tell.
if you are the antithesis of a good townie then what is the point of keeping you around? wouldn't it be better to kill you now then have you causing trouble later?
Couldn't have said it better.

If you're scummy enough to distract other players from their scumhunting, wouldn't the best thing you could do for the town be removing yourself early on via lynch?

preview: ninja'd by narsis.
FakeGod, who would you most liked to be voting at the time of this post?

Chrno real-voted ONCE this entire game. He's made NINE posts, including RVS and confirmation.

VOTE: Chronopie - It's a good wagon, but once we hear a little more I may see cause to do you one at least as good -

THERE IS A PLAYER WHOSE VOTE ON THE KHG WAGON WAS ABOUT AS SUSPECT AS CHRONO'S. COOKIES TO WHOEVER GETS IT RIGHT AND EXPLAINS WHY.

V/LA until Friday. Will be away in Washington, don't expect to have any access.
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Post Post #397 (isolation #25) » Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:50 am

Post by Plum »

BUT FAKEGOD.

SCUM. WHO ARE THEY AGAIN?
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Post Post #423 (isolation #26) » Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:51 pm

Post by Plum »

THOR I have recently been revisiting a game I played fairly recently with Chrono-scum and in fact there are distinct similarities in the play. Excessive discussion of mechanics instead of scumhunting is rampant here as there in the early section of the game. I would not shed many tears over a Chrono lynch, sure, BUT we don't have much margin for error and we NEED more informations.

VV, TBM is not likely scum. I have a ad bad feeling you two are both Town having a catfight and frankly that's counterproductive.

FakeGod, VV's call for a Vimes claim is mitigated by the fact that he pretty clearly is entirely unfamiliar wit the flavor basis of this game (not recognizing who Nobby Nobbs was, for example). Many of your other points show that subjectively VV might have a poor grasp of theory (like calling for direct organization of the Town &c.) but points to no scum motivation specifically over theory disagreement. I find your case against VV uncompelling as an argument that he's scum. A LOT of extraneous points you put down (not showing respect for others in the game, not listening to the Mod's request for unvotes to avoid confusion - none of these are scumtells but all are brought up. Why? They seem to attempt to pile more incrimination on VV for things which clearly aren't remotely related to scumtells).

Although. I can't recall why I asked you who you'd prefer to be voting at the time of my post - I probably intended to link to a post of yours when you
weren't
voting. I'll try to recover that sometimes for us.

Narsis takes potshots and I wonder whether that wagon on him yesterday wasn't actually a doubleplus good idea.

THAT said I heavily dislike FG's attempts to lynch players he agrees are mostly anti-town and not mostly scummy. As ANNOYING as that is I'll take the higher road and start to doubt my earlier read on him . .. it's all going to bits and pieces . . .

CHRONO. VOTE NOW. WHY HAVE YOU LIKE NOT VOTED HALF THE GAME?

OH. YOU VOTED. GOOD. BUT. UM. WHAT ARE FG'S INCONSISTENCIES HERE? I'M SMELLING OPPORTUNISTIC SCUM WAGONING BY YOU.

TBM Narsis points are triple plus good. However. Am more feeling the Chrono wagon of late.

No one touched my question about who besides Chrono made EXTREMELY suspect votes on yesterday's KHG wagon. Because. I think it could be the antidote to the KHG mishaps yesterday. That is. A wagon which we can all pile onto real fast but this time actually net scum with it. ANY BITES, OR DOES NO ONE LIKE COOKIES AROUND HERE?

:(
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Post Post #441 (isolation #27) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 5:13 am

Post by Plum »

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #447 (isolation #28) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 5:29 am

Post by Plum »

Look, TBM, I agree VV's play has been far from perfect, but unless we get a counterclaim I'm inclined to listen to VV and get some investigation results.
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Post Post #452 (isolation #29) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 5:40 am

Post by Plum »

TBM - Scum Vimes? Possible, certainly, but as far as flavor cues we have to work on, it's improbable. I'm inclined to wait and see this investigation and probably act with the results in mind.
VasudeVa wrote:Also, I was waiting for Tasky to get back so I could everyone's reactions but he was V/LA for a whole fuckin' week.
Yeah, by the way.

TASKY. Your vote on KHG yesterday was suspicious as heck. I'll do details later, but it boils down to 'all the effort was poured into the Mysterio wagon at all costs, including discrediting every single vote on the competing wagon piece by piece, so sudden claim that KHG is as scummy and jump on the sweet speeding bandwagon = cognitive dissonance, possible opportunism, &c.'
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Post Post #454 (isolation #30) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 5:47 am

Post by Plum »

If I were you, I'd Daycop TASKY. Or Chrono. I'm just frustrated with my read on Tasky right now. So much.
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Post Post #457 (isolation #31) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 5:52 am

Post by Plum »

Okay, my reservations with FG have lifted significantly. Not completely, but noticeably.
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Post Post #496 (isolation #32) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:19 am

Post by Plum »

VasudeVa wrote:Guilty result. Speed lynch, nao.
VOTE: Tasky

Fistpump.

Though I don't object to Tasky saying anything he likes.

VV, you're sure you're sane, right?
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Post Post #498 (isolation #33) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:28 am

Post by Plum »

Whatever. If this lynch pans out as it should there are some interesting implications beyond VV/TBM.
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Post Post #503 (isolation #34) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:37 am

Post by Plum »

WHY CLAIM NOW YOU IDIOT????????

OR SCUM??????????????????????????
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Post Post #512 (isolation #35) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:58 am

Post by Plum »

Everyone stop being annoying.

Tasky-scum has no reason to admit to anything. If he were Town he'd be claiming Miller right now or something. In any case there's no use worrying because it's dine. Nu?
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Post Post #537 (isolation #36) » Sat Sep 04, 2010 2:39 pm

Post by Plum »

VV - why do you label Narsis likely Town?

Important because I think you're not considering some big STUFF.
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Post Post #542 (isolation #37) » Sat Sep 04, 2010 4:53 pm

Post by Plum »

VasudeVa wrote:I liked his reaction to the beginning of my gambit(me asking Vimes to claim), and his reaction to my claim and his request to daycop Tasky, to be more precise.
Hmmm. They're decent though not unambiguous points, especially given that Narsis' reasons for requesting the daycop on Tasky were basically the same ones I'd given when I said I wanted a Tasky daycop, and he'd expressed relatively little read on Tasky either way throughout the whole game. My STUFF is that Tasky did one thing weird Day 1 which was un . . . oh, never mind, it probably
was
to blatant buddying, for Tasky to have attacked the Narsis wagon so hard? I suppose. Hm, never mind (somehow in my mind it got transposed, so I remembered it as a more of a chainsaw defense. It wasn't, it really was an attack on all the Narsis attackers . . .)
VasudeVa wrote:Chronopie is Town then.
I'll hazard a probably there . . . I've seen scum pull some weird gambits on the fly with no daytalk whatsoever (gambits where people were like 'Do scum have daytalk, because if not Player X can't possibly be scum' when she was).

I'm still not really sure about TBM thar.
jimfinn wrote:Dorfl could be a safeclaim if not counterclaimed, don't let the claim get him off the hook.
Dorfl is publicly confirmed to be in the game. Dorfl is pro-City Watch in the books, as far as I can recall/determine via Wikipedia (I
did
read
Feet of Clay
, just a long time ago). Chrysoprase, scum-Tasky's character, was not (again as far as I can tell). While this isn't entirely conclusive evidence, Dorfl is almost certainly a role in the game and not a safeclaim, and Dorfl is very likely to be a Town role. I am disheartened to see you trying to cast doubt on this and find myself slightly suspicious of you.

For the benefit of VV:

Not On My 'Feel Town' List:
TheButtonmen
Budja
jimfinn
Chronopie??????
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Post Post #544 (isolation #38) » Sat Sep 04, 2010 5:23 pm

Post by Plum »

Well, that would be part of my my issue with
Chronopie
, given his claim. BUT (must wait until Chronopie comes in and says something to determine certain things).
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Post Post #549 (isolation #39) » Sat Sep 04, 2010 5:33 pm

Post by Plum »

Narsis wrote:something you are missing about Tasky...he had a fake claim. or rather i'm assuming he did based on the flavour.
molestargazer wrote: In time, the hiccupping and conversation of the drunken watchmen stopped. They all turned to look at one person - a dwarf, in fact.
Sergeant Littlebottom
was stood in the middle of the tavern with a half-empty pint glass, and looked a sorry state with no eyebrows and a beard that was slowly being torn off with nerves.
"Guys-" One of the more drunk trolls turned with his reinforced mug and gave the Sergeant a dreadful stare.
"People-" That didn't help either.
"Watchmen! Right?! That's what we all are!" She broke down in tears now, almost collapsing as she swayed in the middle of the floor.

"It was you, wasn't it?!" Shouted one of the watchmen. Slowly, torturously, the gathered watch heaved themselves off their chairs (some needed help), and gathered in a circle around the Sergeant. One of them raised an empty bottle, and smashed it over the Sergeant's head.

There was a puff of pink smoke which swarmed over the Watchmen, and they recoiled. When they blinked and got their vision back, they weren't looking at Sergeant Littlebottom. Instead, there was a very angry troll.

"It's Chrysoprase!" One of the more sober watchmen shouted. And suddenly, it roared, rearing its rock-like fists. Quickly, the nearest weapons to hand were grabbed and thrust into the centre of the ring of Ankh-Morporkians. Slowly, the troll collapsed.

"How the hell did he manage that?! We thought it was Cheery!"
One watchmen asked, staggered. But still, one conspirator had been found.
so it looks to me like scum do have fakeclaims. granted i dont know who Sgt. Littlebottom is and how pro-Watch he is, but it does look like he had a fake claim form the flavour.
Sgt. Littlebottom is certainly pro-Watch (and is a she to boot). The question is: Scum may have safeclaims, but will a safeclaim be announced as-is to get a power on a given Day or not? The wording of the flavor is suggestive that it's possible that scum may in fact get single-Day powers . . .
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Post Post #551 (isolation #40) » Sat Sep 04, 2010 5:42 pm

Post by Plum »

He might've gotten rolecop and claimed daycop; but . . .
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Post Post #557 (isolation #41) » Sat Sep 04, 2010 6:08 pm

Post by Plum »

Narsis wrote:A) true. but why go out and buss a partner like that when he didnt need too? Tasky wasnt even on the top of everyone's scum list.
Mine, maybe . . . it would've been easy enough to get an innocent on someone and make it through the day with everyone on the team intact (or at least not auto-condemned by the daycop investigation). Assuming there are three scum, two Townies Dead Day/Night 1 and two Townies dead Day/Night 2 would be Day 3 five Townies and three scumbags alive, which is MYLO if my calculations are correct. It's probably easier and better to do that as scum with a one-shot power than confirm a buddy as scum and such - even if you are let off the hook for a while, at least your buddy might get caught out on connections or whatnot, and with Townies gaining powers most days, the last scumbag would still be vulnerable; the other would be a much easier win in almost all cases.
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Post Post #559 (isolation #42) » Sat Sep 04, 2010 6:16 pm

Post by Plum »

I was saying that Tasky was at the top or near the top of at least one and possibly a few more scumlists.

What I'm saying is that scum-VV would almost certainly have an easier time winning claiming an innocent on someone and helping cause a mislynch yesterday than bussing scum-Tasky in that way. Given the numbers and assuming the scum successfully kill every Night, assuming three scumbags three mislynches and Town loses. Getting the second in a row would have been a surer bet than bussing, especially given the mechanic . . .
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Post Post #600 (isolation #43) » Wed Sep 08, 2010 8:31 am

Post by Plum »

VasudeVa wrote:Actually, maybe we can check that.

FakeGod uses his power on someone, he says who he uses it on. We mass vote for FakeGod and then the voteless person will hammer. If he is not lynched, he is telling the truth.

Although, I'm not sure how vote-stripper is Town.. Is that kind of power usually given to Town?
Probably won't hurt to try this, actually.

Don't especially go for a TBM lynch; Budja needs a reread from me; he's felt like kind of a nonentity to this point. Jimfinn too, but my VI read on him is leaning slightly Town of neutral.

VOTE: Budja on gut. I have relatively little time today so will do the rest when I'm back, because

I'll be V/LA until Saturday night/Sunday morning. Jewish New Year and all.


VOTE COUNT

TheButtonmen (3): VasudeVa, Narsis, Budja
FakeGod (1): Thor665
Budja (1): Plum

Not Voting (4): Chronopie, TheButtonmen, jimfinn, FakeGod

With 9 alive, 5 is needed to lynch.
Deadline is Friday 17th.
Last edited by molestargazer on Wed Sep 08, 2010 10:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #652 (isolation #44) » Sun Sep 12, 2010 6:21 am

Post by Plum »

Thor665 wrote:To put it another way as to why Button is staying at second tier with me - I think scumButton might have been a bit more conciliatory at some point. The "attitude" towards you rings honest to me.
That
has been my issue with TBM overall. I would not have expected scum-TBM to be so confrontational towards a claimed Vimes Dayvig, towards one who called a guilty on Tasky, &c. Those are my major misgivings with the entire premise. That said, a reread of him would be useful for me. I'm trying to force myself to write a college-type essay right now, so.
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Post Post #679 (isolation #45) » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:23 pm

Post by Plum »

FakeGod wrote:V/LA took longer than expected.

Still crazy busy, but quick read reveals that Thor's been doing nothing but tunneling on me, pulling threads about a conspiracy theory and trying to get VV support at all costs.

I hate to get lynched after a mod-confirm-un'ccd claim, especially when last two times (Mysterio and VV) mod gave powers to Vanilla Town. (Mysterio flipped Vanilla, and as far as I can tell, our JK saved VV from an attempted Night Kill, so VV is town, plus, my own situation, a Power-Received Vanilla Town, adds to the credibility if you look at it from my point of view)

In fact, one thing mafia would want to do is to discredit/lynch a mod-confirmed VT, and the exact argument they would make would be to argue WIFOM on how broken the game setup would be if mod were to confirm a townie every day.

Button is also guilty of this with his relationship with VV, and given the time-constraint, he's going to be our lynch today.

Vote: TheButtonmen





P.S. I'm using STRENGTH on Thor. lol
Scum. You're not confirmed anything but that no one else is actually Dorfl. Definitely not Mod-confirmed Town. And Thor's been one of the Towniest players in this game. I can wait on jimfinn, am really worried that Budja's slipping under the ol' radar, and am leaning Town, or simply against a straight scum read in any case, on TBM.

FakeGod>>>jimfin~Budja>TBM
FakeGod wrote:@Narsis: He wanted me lynched; hence his vote was on me.

He showed no intention of switching it, and deadline's in 4 days.


@Chrono: It's great that you know the flavor much more that I do.

Flavor Question: I wiki'd a bit and learned that Dorfl, like other golems, speak by pronouncing all of his words with capitalization. Is this true?

Because I breadcrumbed in my 327 (onset of day 2) this:
FakeGod's 327 wrote: Why State Obvious Things? Just In Case Mafia Didn't Understood???
Capitalization of all words. Something (I hope) what Dorfl does in the series.

Since you know the flavor well, I take it that you saw the breadcrumb? (did anyone else?)

or are my wiki skills failing....
If you're scum, you came into this game with that fakeclaim and knowing that it would be used in flavor like that, presumably.
Budja wrote:
unvote, vote FG

Vote + power use show strong survival instinct.
Yeah, power use on Thor, mostly because Thor stated intents to vote for him and whatnot, show priority of survival over stuff like scumhunting.
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Post Post #683 (isolation #46) » Mon Sep 13, 2010 2:55 pm

Post by Plum »

Thor665 wrote:In any case, I'm somewhat neutral about trying to figure out which characters would or would not be scum based off of relative importance to the series - we can start that contemplation after we see another scum flip because then it might be a bit more viable, for now, 'meh'.
I wouldn't bother mod-WIFOM on which characters are more/less likely to be real vs. safe/fakeclaims,
especially
before a mass nameclaim (which considering we have Vimes claimed VT and someone else claimed powerrole might have little in the way of a downside - but I digress). As a Mod I've known myself to mix it up quite a bit and give safeclaims along the spectrum of 'important characters' fairly proportional to the characters I actually put in the game.
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Post Post #708 (isolation #47) » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:47 pm

Post by Plum »

FakeGod wrote:@Thor: Backing out? You understand that I made a serious accusation to you (that you are lying/not convinced of your own stance). You can't just say our opinions differ, when you never pointed out where in my accusation was wrong.

My Logic:
Fact 1: Thor says he believes that mod is confirming scum as well as town.

Fact 2: Thor says he will still believe that mod is confirming scum as well as town even if I were to flip VT.

Therefore, Thor believes that there is at least one scum among the 4 people (Mysterio, VV, me, New-Mod-Confirmed Player).

But Mysterio and I am VT, and VV has claimed Vimes and has caught us a scum.

Therefore, New-Mod-Confirmed Player is scum.
All I'm asking you to do is point out where in my logic that I'm wrong and tell me why.
I really don't think I'm asking for much here, and we don't have time for your evade and avoid maneuvers.
Uh, no.

For example, what if the Mod throws a die every day to see which player is getting which predetermined one-day-only power (presumably he designed the powers so that however it fell out the game would remain approximately as balanced)? Then any Day we might be getting a Townie 'confirmed' or a scumbag 'confirmed'. Just because we happen to get Town hit with them a few Days in a row would in hat very plausible case have no bearing whatsoever on the alignment of the player chosen to get a temporary power the next Day, d'ya see?

In any case, Thor doesn't say a thing about Mod giving powers to scum as well as Town meaning 'by Day 4 scum must get a power'. It's a conjecture on your part. There's nothing indicating
Thor
believes that.

VOTE: FakeGod

Meant to do this in my last post.
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Post Post #712 (isolation #48) » Tue Sep 14, 2010 5:09 pm

Post by Plum »

FakeGod wrote:@Plum: Are you aware that even in your hypothetical setup I would be right. If Thor
truly believes
that mod is picking scum as well as town, and if we assume your hypothetical dice setup, then Thor would vote the last Mod-Confirmed-Player. It's simple probabilities. Assuming there are 3 scum out of 12 people, what's the chance that mod picks 4 people, and there are
no scum
in the picked people?

It comes out to be 14/55 or around 25.45%. (9 choose 4 over 12 choose 4) Therefore, chance that there will be at least 1 scum among the 4 picked is around 75.45%. (and by process of elimination which I pointed out above, it will be the last Mod-Confirmed-Player)

If I really believed in a theory that says that chance of this one player being scum is around 75.45%, you bet my vote would be on that person right away, and I mean
right away
.
You don't understand How Probability Works. Each event resolves independently of the others. Day 1, assuming 3/12 scum, there's a %25 chance a scumbag gets a power. Assume Town lynch, Town kill as we have here, the next Day we have 3/10 scumbags, or a %30 chance of scum getting powered. Now add a scum lynch and no kill as we had last cycle. Today we'd have a 2/9 chance of scum getting powered, or about %22 chance. Assume Town lynch, Town kill tonight, tomorrow we're at 2/7 scumbags which is a bit under a %29 chance of scum getting powered. As a matter of fact, each Day it's considerably more likely that Town get powered than scum. Now that you say this, it may be that you're acting this way partly because you Have No Clue How Probability Works.

I confirm that I believe the Mod isn't powering only Townies with Day-powers. Um, wasn't that obvious?

jimfinn is way ahead of me on probability theory but here more explanation within reason is probably fine.
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Post Post #714 (isolation #49) » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:20 pm

Post by Plum »

Yeah, but the question is does it exonerate him in any way or not?
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Post Post #722 (isolation #50) » Wed Sep 15, 2010 5:52 am

Post by Plum »

My gut has been muttering to me for ages 'look at Budja' but I don't know why. I'm in school and have Psych questions to type up, but someday. We'll see. I'll look at VV's analysis of FG not being a likely Tasky buddy but am inclined to believe that he notied something legitimate, given that he noticed it and whatnot.
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Post Post #739 (isolation #51) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 10:26 am

Post by Plum »

TheButtonmen wrote:I'm getting nervous about Jimfinn, Narsis, Budja and Chrono, way too much lurking / sheeping coming from that area and while I can explain most of it due to inexperiance it's becoming increasinly worrying as the game advances. I'm most bothered by Chronos as his claimed status as a protective role, where his play today isn't what I expect from an outted PR at all.
I echo your sentiments on Chrono but we'll be lynching him soon unless we get proof of his alignment anyway, as per the one-Day-before-LYLO deal. But that's actually likely to net scum (the scum not having tried to kill him vs. VV last Night is especially ODD).

Narsis is unlikely to be a Tasky buddy at this point.
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Post Post #744 (isolation #52) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 5:01 pm

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Chronopie wrote:I gambled, protected VV, and (presumably) stopped a kill. Probably won't get so lucky twice. Ofc all this debate about whether I'm actually a JK is probably going to wifom the scum into keeping me alive for the potential of an easy lylo win. until then, I'm going to try stay one step ahead of them.
Uh, if you're Town JK you
didn't
gamble, which is precisely my point: protecting VV was easily the most viable option for you then. The
scum
gambled: either you're Town and they tried to kill someone other than you or you're scum and the scumteam probably decided to no-kill. Oh, and while we're on the topic, Chrono: Who'd you protect Night 1 and why didn't you say so when you claimed?

What bothers me is that if we lynch jimfinn today we . . . well, if neither of {jimfinn, Chronopie} are scum then we have some tough endgame choices ahead of us.

JIMFINN, claim ASAP and we'll discuss ASAP.
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Post Post #749 (isolation #53) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 5:21 pm

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jimfinn wrote:I am Constable Shoe, Vanilla Townie.
So nu, what's your flavor? Can't hurt.
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Post Post #761 (isolation #54) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 9:54 am

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UNVOTE:

VOTE: jimfinn

No no-Lynch if I have any say here.

V/LA through Monday, may have access but can't count on it.
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Post Post #765 (isolation #55) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:55 pm

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Massclaim time y/n?

I say y.
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Post Post #777 (isolation #56) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:34 pm

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"I am aligned with the city watch and win when all mafia are dead".
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Post Post #783 (isolation #57) » Tue Sep 21, 2010 10:13 am

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Name: Lance-Constable A.E. Pessimal
Role: Townie.
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Post Post #784 (isolation #58) » Tue Sep 21, 2010 10:21 am

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OH CRUD CRUD CRUD CRUD.

I looked up the name from my Role PM for spelling and all that and the Mod made an error - it's fomulated as a quote, and the quoted from bit says 'Rag Shoe Role PM wrote'.

Dangit, if we'd caught that we could've used it. Well. At least the Mod will be happy that it didn't affect the game :?.
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Post Post #786 (isolation #59) » Tue Sep 21, 2010 10:23 am

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Sorry, man.
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Post Post #788 (isolation #60) » Tue Sep 21, 2010 10:27 am

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:(
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Post Post #797 (isolation #61) » Wed Sep 22, 2010 4:51 am

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So do we or do we not lynch Chronopie???

Dangit I need to think.
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Post Post #801 (isolation #62) » Wed Sep 22, 2010 11:02 am

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V/LA through Saturday Night


Understood. -M
Last edited by molestargazer on Wed Sep 22, 2010 11:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #855 (isolation #63) » Sun Sep 26, 2010 5:51 pm

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Thor665 wrote:
VV town/Chrono scum
- Chrono 'claimed' protect on VV. Either scum opted to nokill in order to add credence to his claim (an odd move) or scum was caught by surprise when VV was protected anyway (by Narsis, our Doc) Need to re-read Narsis and Chrono interactions around time of VV protection discussion.
Also, shamwoosh, but did you know how rare two protective roles in a Mini Normal is (
because Hoopla did some stats and I'll try to find the link in MD for soon times
)? Did you know that we're not just in a mini-Normal, but in a theme game where additionally we seem to have the potential for Town powerroles including probably one of the following {sane cop, sane lie detector}?

Almost feel like better Budja is scum too BUT shazam that's not on the table today I don't think. Unless we get complacent about believing him because he pegged an innocent who wasn't under much pressure (hint: way easier/lower risk to do as scum than get a guilty on a buddy, so if we don't believe we got two strong oneshot investigative roles THEN VV is amuch safer Town bet) we haven't lost anything.

If Thor is scum THEN we deservedly lost the game BARRING further stuff. I'd be unpleasantly shocked to find that to be the case.

VV. If everyone who's gotten a power yet is Town then we have the Moderator come dangerously close to confirming all the scum for us by process of elimination plus two strong investigative oneshots for daytime use PLUS a doctor at least for Night use.
VasudeVa wrote:If nothing else, Chrono was so obviously Town from Tasky's return post because opportunistic Tasky-scum put him at L-1(somewhat near deadline, IIRC. Too lazy to check :P). We STOP suspecting him. And I'm Town because of the claimed JK.
This proves . . . what, exactly????

Ooooohhhhh, but FOS: Buddy Vote: Townie is a shiny tell. Would Tasky have fallen into ze trap?
Chronopie wrote:Radical idea.

D2, I claimed JK'er shortly BEFORE night started. There was no kill.

I thought that I got lucky and protected VV.

It's too late to ask, but Narsis/Igor-Doc may have successfully protected someone else instead...
Or you're a Mafia Roleblocker who fakeclaimed. Take your pick.
VasudeVa wrote:@Budja: I already explained this. It could go both ways. If Town figures it out, good! If Town doesn't, then boo. Plus I'm thinking aboveaverage/high powered scum team + only weak Town PRs. (JK is weak. Doc is meh. Unconfirmed masons is meh-er.)
JK + Doc is hella strong, especially when you have the potential for multiple confirmed innocents to manifest during the day. Indefinitely protect two cleared Townies and the game is over, Town win, everyone can go home.

VV is Town. TBM is probtown I THINK.
BUDJA, CHRONOPIE, FAKEGOD

I think two of those three are scum. Lynch one today and one tomorrow, we
should
be good enough to hit scum between the eyes at least once, which will give us a last Day to lynch the third. In a perfect world.

VOTE: Chronopie

I
think
this is the best lynch for today. Let's hold ourselves to the promise that we'd lynch this thing one day before LYLO. I think that's where we're at.
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Post Post #862 (isolation #64) » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:17 am

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My preference of Chrono is based on a combination of factors - the belief that both scum are very likely in the set {FakeGod, Chronopie, Budja}, the belief that it is unlikely that the Moderator crafted a setup where Town get daypowers with confirmation/investigation powers
and
get two protective roles, which is a rare enough combination in regular old Mini Normals, and given Narsis flipped Doctor whooosh . . . the belief that we should stick to the day before LYLO thing is mostly a rhetorical bit, but in context we have every reason not to believe that his claim is truthful and therefore to follow through on that method of dealing with that sort of shady claim.
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Post Post #865 (isolation #65) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 9:31 am

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Nonono FakeGod, we need to hear from Thor re: Chrono lynch before anything goes through, okay? If at all possible.
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Post Post #868 (isolation #66) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:16 pm

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Thor665 wrote:I feel like we have a few too many "pro-town" players left and am trying to puzzle out why Narsis was the target last night.
Oooooh, you're right; there
may
be shenanigans there (
or
possibly they didn't want to shoot VV because he might be protected again, assuming that's what happened Night 2, so they chose a player no one thought could possibly be Tasky's buddy/they shot in the dark for whatever was protecting and got lucky).
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Post Post #870 (isolation #67) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:46 pm

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Right, well, happily we should have that soon.
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Post Post #872 (isolation #68) » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:58 pm

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That's not a bah go Town post.

Well, as with Tasky, no reason working ourselves up before the Moderator comes back.
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Post Post #903 (isolation #69) » Sat Oct 02, 2010 2:31 pm

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Quick thoughts: Scum killing VV makes me weirdly a bit more confident in Budja-Town; I actually see it as some kind of weird scumploy try to heap suspicion on him by killing the other Cop-type-role-receiver.

Dunno about the Lovers thing, how that works with Budja. Let's see - we have five alive. If we lynch TBM today and he flips Town THEN we have four alive going into Night. IF both Lovers are Townies that's game over right there - same thing if we mislynch FakeGod. If one Lover is a scumbag and we mislynch either TBM or FG today THEN tomorrow it's three alive with a better-than-even chance of hitting scum.

I really don't know. From a flavor perspective having the two Lovers makes sense if they're both really Carrot and Angua (awwwww). From a balance perspective, do you realize that TBM being scum
would
make everyone who's gotten a power Town? From a balance perspective again . . .

2 Mafia Goons
1 Mafia ????

1 Town Doctor
6 Town Vanilla (One-day Doublevote, Cop, Vote Restrict, Lie Detector Cop)
2 Town Lovers, unconfirmed

It looks
okay
except for the two Cop-types and the Doctor combined. That would depend on a few things, mostly on what the Mafia ???? is. I'd
guess
either a Rolecop (useful vs. Cop/Doc combos when the Cop is so elusive in terms of Nightkills and such, and also v. strong against Lovers) or possibly a Godfather type. That would implicate the scum being sacrificial in favor of the very valuable teammate, which
might
suggest FG scum but on the other hand might not - reread necessary. Don't do anything drastic; we're almost certainly in a form of MYLO.
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Post Post #913 (isolation #70) » Mon Oct 04, 2010 1:43 pm

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Fight! Fight! Fight!

On the other hand, Thor, the colors are pretty and all BUT I'd prefer to evaluate our two scumbags in terms of our basic two suspects today . . .
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Post Post #915 (isolation #71) » Mon Oct 04, 2010 1:56 pm

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Quicklook: Tasky basically ignored Chrono until he started bussing or whatnot. I think he ignored TBM somewhat more than FakeGod; it's hard to say. BUT Chrono going after FakeGod over jimfinn Day 3 is telling; specifically, I don't think it was bussing though that is pending a more thorough read of the context there. I don't think that if FG were scum Chrono would have voted for him over jimfinn . . .
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Post Post #917 (isolation #72) » Mon Oct 04, 2010 2:22 pm

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And it makes me feel better about Budja because three scum in a row on a wagon is as far as I know pretty rare, especially compared to simply three scum out of three on a wagon.
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Post Post #923 (isolation #73) » Mon Oct 04, 2010 4:59 pm

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WIFOM alert

Downspout is a mediocre claim (yes?). The other two scum fakes were pretty good though - Cheery had a major role in at least one of the books, and even though I have a shoddy memory Sgt. Colon was an instantly recognized name despite the fact that I can't remember much-if-anything else about him. And I guess if one of the scum had a mediocre claim it would be a double-edged sword given that I'm A.E. Pessimal (sure as heck can't remember who he was, if I even read a book he appeared in) and suchlike . . .

Conclusion: Despite mild panic on my part I think that TBM's claim doesn't make it less likely that he's scum. So.
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Post Post #927 (isolation #74) » Mon Oct 04, 2010 5:21 pm

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Got a good idea for that one?

If we lynch wrong today AND the Lovers are both Town we lose (unless the remaining Townie miraculously gets a power. Yeah not happening I don't think).
If we lynch wrong today AND one of the Lovers is scum probably I'm killed tonight, then lynch the Lovers next, on principle of someone who doesn't hammer in LYLO = confirmed Town/if you're wrong you're screwed already anyway.
If we don't lynch today and the Lovers are both Town then either I'm killed and bad WIFOM situation tomorrow or the Lovers are killed and we have only one lynch before endgame anyway.
If we don't lynch today and one of the Lovers is scum then I'm killed and bad WIFOM situation tomorrow as above.

In conclusion, we can't guarantee two lynches, but will probably get them if one of the Lovers is scum. We won't get two lynches and will get a WIFOM headache if we no-lynch.

SO.
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Post Post #929 (isolation #75) » Mon Oct 04, 2010 5:38 pm

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Immediately. I believe it triggers automatically and resolves at the same moment of the other Lover's death in usual action resolution.
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Post Post #932 (isolation #76) » Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:40 am

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???????
TheButtonmen wrote:Therefore I think the PoE that fingered me and FG is flawed.

The kills are making me

However PoE could only have been planned out in advance by one of the lovers.
How so? How would you interpret the PoE?
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Post Post #934 (isolation #77) » Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:46 am

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Yeah, but for an argument to sway me I'll need something more objective than that. Look, Budja's bothered me, too, but it seems much less likely that he's scum than you are from the objective PoE solutions implemented. What would you suggest is the flaw in our thinking?
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Post Post #936 (isolation #78) » Wed Oct 06, 2010 5:27 am

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Hmmmm.

All right, FakeGod being prob. not scum according to everyone, we can almost certainly even afford to be wrong on you today, so. I'll wait and see the others' response to you, but your lynch is happening today.
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Post Post #973 (isolation #79) » Sat Oct 09, 2010 1:51 pm

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Honestly - and I say this as after-game thoughts in a slight rush - the Lovers were a little too easily confirmed, being Carrot and Angua. Obviously we knew the nature of the safeclaims, but it simply would've been a bit weird to
not
have that pan out - I mean, if Carrot dies and then Angua reacts, fine, but if Carrot dies and spontaneously turns out to have been a baddie in disguise, Angua's just going to get ticked off; she's not going to angst or anything, as far as I'd think. Having said that, scum safeclaims/fakeclaims were a tad bit weak. The fact that Town had Vimes
and
Carrot/Angua (
and
Nobby Nobbs) - well, maybe Colon had just never made that much impression on me, but Vimes and Carrot at least are really strong claims.

I digress. I
mostly
didn't trust the Lovers because I didn't trust Budja because he seemed to slip under the radar quite a bit.

The game wasn't very much unbalanced. I think we're underestimating exactly what would've happened if, as was perfectly plausible, the scumteam killed Budja the Night they failed to kill VV. That said two Cop-type detections was a bit much (and a bit swingy with Godfather around) - given the rest of the setup I might've given the scum a one-shot Rolecop as well, useful in finding/narrowing down options for the Lovers and Doctor (Doctor was a bit much with one-shot Daycop-type roles, which scum really could'nt defend against very well).

The game really went to the Town because, despite some pressures, we managed to play well as a team. It could've been even better, but Townie-identification went very well, and even though I had TBM as Town for a while for the same reasons Thor did, the Town unity worked well. It could've gone even better if Budja was as vocal about me being obv-Town in the thread earlier in the game, but I dunno.

Anyway, this game makes me feel happy about my scumhunting. I
think
I would've gone for Tasky Day 2 had there not been an investigation.
VasudeVa wrote:Good job to Town for catching scum after I was gone~ I think that Town played pretty strongly in this game. It was a combination of statistics, scumhunting and coordination that helped us pull through.
That's basically it.
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