Mini 1023 - City Watch Mafia - Game Over!
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Plum Mafia Scum
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I, [recruit's name], do solemnly swear by [recruit's deity of choice] to uphold the Laws and Ordinances of the city of Ankh-Morpork, serve the public trust, and defend the subjects of His/Her [delete whichever is inappropriate] Majesty [name of reigning monarch] without fear, favour, or thought of personal safety; to pursue evil-doers and protect the innocent, laying down my life if necessary in the cause of said duty, so help me [aforesaid deity]. Gods Save the King/Queen [delete which is inappropriate].-
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Plum Mafia Scum
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Newb Town is makes me want to tear my hair out. Let this run its course a bit; I think I can still analyze it despite leading question.TheButtonmen wrote:
Leading question is leading.Plum wrote:Yeah, but don't Townies also want to create pressure on players to try to figure out if they're scum or not, especially when there's no other information to analyze?
EDIT - Jim. Which vote in this game has been the most suspect and why?
SECOND EDIT: Jim, please start making with the sense.-
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I'm trying to figure out a way to feel out if he's being scummy or not through the newb-static. He's still the best place for my vote; I don't have a better and he's acting in ways which may well be scummy; they just demand some further investigation.
VOTE COUNT
jimfinn (5): Tasky, Plum, Thor665, Chronopie, FakeGod
Thor665 (2): KHG, jimfinn
Plum (1): VasudeVa
Tasky (1): Budja
FakeGod (1): TheButtonmen
Not Voting (2): Narsis, Mysterio
With 12 alive, 7 votes are needed to lynch.Last edited by molestargazer on Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:41 am, edited 1 time in total.-
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I have but I doubt that this game is one of the exception. HIGHLY doubt it. Mod quality here is a bit too high for that, given that this theme/game style doesn't seem suited for no safeclaims. Really, a mass name claim here would be unhelpful and counterproductive.Thor665 wrote:I think the only way massclaim helps town is if scum haven't been given fakeclaims. I haven't found a mod yet who doesn't give fake claims in theme games.
KHG wrote:I'm going toUnvote: Thor(my previous random vote) andVote: Mysterio.
No one pressed Mysterio at all for any information, yet he writes:
We knew from the wording of the mod's day post that the power would only last a day. Claiming townie when a roleclaim was not necessary seems absolutely bizarre to me, especially the talk of getting night killed.Mysterion wrote:Well, I guess I don't need to hide it anymore. Yes, my power is only good for today. Tomorrow I will revert back to a VT. Hence me not really caring about claiming early, since getting NK would only mean that town lost a VT.
Was it necessary to claim? No. Was it really hurtful to the Town? Well, throwing in the VT bit was a little, but we can deal and it doesn't seem to be anything but a nulltell that he did it. The talking about NKing bit comes naturally in explaining why outing himself doesn't hurt the Town, as it won't lose the Town a powerrole by NK tonight.
Accident/absentminded inclusion of info; when explaining that his power was only one shot he expounded that otherwise he was a VT, something he shouldn't have done.KHG wrote:
I think it's pro-scum; why would Mysterio hammer the point home that he his a townie when no one was asking for a roleclaim?@KHG, my point is claiming VT at this point isn't pro-town or pro-scum.
I can't think of a single reason.
NO SHOOT WHY THE HECK ARE WE NAMECLAIMING?
HOWEVER Mysterio pressing for the nameclaim is stupid/scummy, hard to say which. Tasky points this out beautifully.
KHG seems to be fairly new here; talking about people mentioning their Town/VT status is a fairly sophisticated (though very unpredictable) tell to be talking about. I'm not really sure what that indicates, but it's worth noting and keeping in mind as the day progresses.
Trying to bully people off his lynch. I like the Nobby Nobbs claim, but am conflicted. Need to think about flavor more; this may well be the best Day 1 wagon available. Need to see where the other players are on this whole business and think.Mysterio wrote:
With my vote, it would have been essentially 5 players voting for him, putting him at L-2 with 7 other players who could have jumped on the bandwagon.FakeGod wrote:With so many votes on jim? When you posted this, jim had 3 players voting him.
How could scum "jump in and hammer"? I think you're just trying to find an excuse to unvote him and keep your vote open.
Anyway, my lynch seems inevitable, so when I flip town, be sure to note the one's who were most eager to get me out of the way: Tasky and KHG, with Narsis pretty much contributing nothing the entire game and then comes back to immediately jump on the bandwagon forming on me.
Back soon.-
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In this case it's slightly more likely than in general, but in either case powerroles don't claim VT to avoid getting NK'd because in general you don't claim unless you're in danger of lynch, and a VT claim in and of itself is generally not grounds for stopping a lynch, so the player would just get lynched instead of nightkilled.
Don't worry about not lynching PRs; DO worry about finding scum and getting them lynched.-
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Reading up. I've been busy, bit pressed for time, and I apologize.
Tasky: I didn't say that claiming VT was entirely without negative repercussions for the Town; it isn't, but I think they're the sort of repercussions we can deal with without undue strain. It might have been anti-Town, but I don't clearly see a scum motivation for doing it as opposed to the likelihood of Town doing it by accident/thoughtlessly. It's a nulltell in and of itself, and yes, I'm willing to hold him on the strength of the Nobby Nobbs claim itself for a bit. Which is not to say that some of Mysterio's further actions have not been scummy, nor that I'm not keeping a close eye on him and what he's doing as the game continues.
Too scummy to be scum - it's not necessarily a fallacy, but be careful in its application. When you have this feeling, try to boil it down to an answer to the question 'is there significant scum motivation to be acting in this way?' [/IC talk]jimfinn wrote:I'm starting to feel a bit of suspicion towards VV for that vote as well, and I would also say that I don't see much of a case against Narsis right now - almost too off the wall to be scum - I would think scum would try to blend in more. I'm going to read FakeGod in iso now and see what I think, but I still find Mysterio PE#1
I agree with Buttonmen on VV's voting Narsis for pressure. Seems weak and wishy-washy - jump on a bandwagon without identifying a reason for the vote, then when called out on it say it was for pressure and that Narsis is in no immediate danger. It certainly doesn't show very much about who VV most suspects, which I'd much rather know and much rather he focus on. I find that not doing that and choosing instead to play around with pressuring and wagons and excuses disguises or attempts to excuse a lack of scumhunting.
Wait, so you want Narsis to have a gun to his head but you excuse your vote by saying that you're not the one holding a gun to his head? Uh.VasudeVa wrote:It's not a contradiction. I'm waiting for a wagon on Narsis to build up so that he'll eventually get the proverbial 'gun to his head'.
This all over. You either have null reads on everyone (and that's a bad enough sign) or you don't.Thor665 wrote:At the time you had null tells on every player in the game Mysterio had already role- claimed and power-claimed.
You had a null read on him at that point? Seriously? And not just a null read, but a read where you decided to self-vote, unvote, and then joke around with Plum when she voted you?
Then again we could all compromise and lynch KHG. I think someone's bussing him and some Townies or other are catching onto him, so we might just cut to the chase and string him up now.
Dislike Tasky's attempted defense of Narsis against Thor. Self-voting may be null, but joking around and having only null reads at that point in the game, when some serious material was under discussion, is generally likely to be a scummy action. Thor's case focused on Narsis' lack of commentary on his top suspects and in general the fact that he's contributed nothing to this game while latching onto the largest wagon . . . you attempt to excuse him for the 'trap' clumsily as well. Oh, and your attack on my case on Narsis:
The difference is that scum may feign lightheartedness and lack of concern early in the game to avoid actually participating. Narsis was in a position where contribution was basically demanded, but instead attempted to fool around. Again, self-voting is not a nulltell if in context it is aiding and abetting scum behavior, like avoiding scumhunting. I'd be on Narsis' case just as much had he voted then quickly unvoted anyone in the game that way; the one he happened to do that to was himself. My case on him further includes his commplete lack of reads. He's simply not scumhunting and not trying to scumhunt. Townies have direct motivation to scumhunt. Scum don't haveTasky wrote:what's the difference between attempting to be casual, jokey and actually being it? if you are referring to the self-vote, as I already said... it's an absolute null-tell
is it scummy not to vote in the beginning of the game?
this is your whole case on him...directmotivation to scumhunt, so generally speaking avoiding scumhunting is a MAJOR SCUMTELL.
The entire post there REEKS of something bad - either desperately trying to get the Mysterio wagon through early, or a backfiring attempt to relieve pressure on Narsis (either because you're scum with him or because you think you may later get credit for dissipating pressure on a Townie). In any case, it looks forced and possibly has a motivation seperate from the general scumhunting motivation.
VV, I've been busy. If you would care to check my activity against my other games, you'll see I've been giving this game about as much of its due as any of my other games these past few days. If you think I've been posting fluff, I'd like you to check my posts against their contexts and how much fluff was appropriate during the various stages of this game thus far. If you've seen me playing like I have as scum in other specifics, please specify and do not make vaguely incriminating statements like 'Plus I've seen her as scum before~' with no supporting evidence or cross-referencing.
I feel kinda upset; usually I have more semi-solid Town reads than scum reads. Right now I have like four strong scumreads and two, maybe three Townreads. BAD SIGN.
VV, calling scumteams before anyone flips (Town or scum, though obviously the latter will lead to more conclusive results) is poor thinking.
Damn. Good point. Let's reread KHG for a bit and see what we turn up.VasudeVa wrote:AHA. This is extremely suspicious. He expresses interest in the Narsis wagon and doesn't vote. I pressure him by calling him "70% scum". He tells me that he isn't voting for Narsis because voting Narsis puts Narsis at L-2.
He THEN VOTES Mysterio who has a larger wagon behind him.
ROLEFISH MUCH?KHG wrote:And, is the double vote the power of "CHARISN'TMA"? In which case Mysterio would be Cpl. Nobbs?
I'm not saying these questions should be answered as of yet; just getting them out there...
NO ONE PRESSED MYSTERIO FOR INFORMATION??? WHAT WAS THE ROLEFISHING ABOVE? ARRRRRGH.KHG wrote:I'm going toUnvote: Thor(my previous random vote) andVote: Mysterio.
No one pressed Mysterio at all for any information, yet he writes:
We knew from the wording of the mod's day post that the power would only last a day. Claiming townie when a roleclaim was not necessary seems absolutely bizarre to me, especially the talk of getting night killed.Mysterion wrote:Well, I guess I don't need to hide it anymore. Yes, my power is only good for today. Tomorrow I will revert back to a VT. Hence me not really caring about claiming early, since getting NK would only mean that town lost a VT.
HE WASN'T 'I'M A TOWNIE' HE WAS 'MY ROLE IS VT'. THAT'S NOT SCREAMING ABOUT YOUR TOWN DRAW, THAT'S . . . ARGH. BUT in other ways he seems to be following some degree of internal consistency . . .KHG wrote:
I think it's pro-scum; why would Mysterio hammer the point home that he his a townie when no one was asking for a roleclaim?@KHG, my point is claiming VT at this point isn't pro-town or pro-scum.
I can't think of a single reason.
Will reread Tasky later. Might move my vote to one of {Tasky, KHG, VV} depending on how my gut reads and feelings develop but NOT BEFORE we hear more from Narsis and I can gauge his reactions and play in response to everything.-
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KHG, bringing up questions, even with that sort of disclaimer, is partly asking for answers to the question. Mentioning the questions does constitute rolefishing-prodding. What, did you expect to let the questions hang in the air - and you didn't say explicitly that they shouldn't be answered. You just said you didn't necessarily mean they should be at that point - it's speculating about info and prodding for answers - directly asking Mysterio about his role and powers - with a little disclaimer. The tone and intent still had to do with questions which were not put there to sit and look pretty. They were there to get speculation out in the open and directly increase the chances of everyone talking about it, especially Mysterio, the only person with the info you asked about. Disclaimer or not. It had distinct overtones of rolefishing. You directly asked questions about Mysterio's role. That counts as asking Mysterio for information, or pushing him to reveal information. This wouldn't be egregious if you didn't turn around directly and call Mysterio out for having given the info. You asked the questions. If you'd said 'oh shoot, I shouldn't have asked those questions because they shouldn't have been discussed right now' that would have been one thing. But you refuse to shoulder the weight of having asked some of the questions which caused the revelation of the info by Mysterio. That's hypocritical and opportunistic.
I am a VT = I don't have any abilities.
I'm a Townie = Look guys I am so completely and totally Town, really super Town!
The latter can be scummy; the former is by itself neutral. You tried to equate Mysterio's statement of #1 for the inherently suspect nature of #2.
My main problems with you aren't your desire to wait on a Narsis vote in and of itself. However, my desire not to move my vote yet springs from the fact that my reason for voting Narsis was related to his lack of participation, bag full of nullreads followed by a jump on a popular bandwagon for a mediocrely explained (at best) reason EDIT: Actually I think I understand it better now, and I might feel a little better about it. I need to gauge whether or not he's still avoiding contribution and content-posting or not, and if he posts, does it seem to be honest scumhunting or not.
@VV - yes, in general I find the idea of drawing scum less appealing than drawing Town, but there are always exceptions and I try to summon enthusiasm and concentration, in reasonable amounts, for all my games. Again I ask you to either make a direct comparison with some of my meta (which I have reason to believe you capable of) or to drop your poorly backed-up meta-based suspicions of me.
I think I understand VV's retraction of #228/#230 now; it was completely opaque before. I need a bit more time to parse it but on the surface the retraction looks legitimate (that is, not poor backtracking but correction of a normal mistake and probably a nulltell overall).
The arguments were weak, yes. But an entire post devoted to knocking down every single person's reasons for voting Narsis? I just don't see why, from a normal Town perspective, even one with strong Town read, for whatever reason (heaven help me if I know how someone could get a better than neutral read on Narsis at this point) an entire post would be a sort of lowgrade attack on everyone who voted Narsis/their votes on Narsis. A few other Tasky things have been slightly on the odd side (like unvoting from a 5-player wagon on page 3 which he later stated was probably mainly Town-driven . . . again, worry about a quickhammer then? And if so, unvote a wagon which didn't seem shady/scum-driven?). At this point, having thought about it, I'd be more likely to call Mysterio newb-Town and Tasky possibly scum exploiting him.Budja wrote:The whole "defend Narsis" post by Tasky was odd but on the whole I don't think it was scummy, just weak.
I like this post; it shows concentrated scumhunting/mindset reading from Mysterio without regard to how people see his character claim. It seems excellently Townish to me, looking back; in my read earlier someone mentioned it and I thought about it when looking over Tasky again. Tasky's extreme tunnelvision on Mysterio to the point that he attacks every single vote made on the competing wagon is worrisome. Tasky seems to be attacking Mysterio not merely to the exclusion of almost everyone else, but also seems to be attacking every single thing he does (and before anyone says anything, I'm nitpicking everything aMysterio wrote:
Do you really expect a counterclaim this early? And Nobbs isn't exactly a pure character. In fact, he'sFakeGod wrote:No one cc'd him, and I was assuming Col. Nobbs is town-sided.
But thatisa good point.veryshifty in the stories. Why exactly do you assume that Nobbs would be town?whole bunchof players are doing, so )-
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Tasky, I've already explained why a scumbag would have motivation to joke around instead of delving into the content of the game at that point. It's not that he joked, is that he chose to joke instead of scumhunt, possibly chose to joke in order to distract from his refusal to scumhunt. I said I didn't care about the self-vote in and of itself. Being lazy itself may not be a scumtell, but deliberately avoiding making a scumhunting effort is.
Thor, methinks you are generally right there. I am, however, wondering certain things about, as we both stated, the motivations for attacking the entire Narsis wagon so strongly.
Tasky, do you now believe Mysterio to be more likely to be scummy, or more likely stupid, and why?Tasky wrote:you either are incredibly stupid or you are scum (or both).
in both cases I don't want you in the endgame...
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mysterio
The longer Narsis stays solely reactive to various stuff which happens to be directed at him and avoids being a proactive scumhunter the happier I will be with my vote on him.-
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Backtrack city, here we come! You clearly said "I'd like to hear Narsis' response before voting for him." This implies that you were not merely willing to vote for Narsis (apparently that's default status towards all other players for you; if you were merely as willing to vote him as anyone else, why state it at all?) but actively considering doing so, depending on his responses. You were considering it, and you were interested in it. You never stated why you would be. Please explain.KHG wrote:
I didn't show an interest in voting for Narsis so as much I said I was willing to vote for him, just as I am willing to vote for everyone. Perhaps if you explained what was soBudja wrote: ^ Explain this. Explain why you showed an interest in voting for Narsis. (and give me a proper answer this time.)improperabout my previous answer, I could attempt to give you aproperanswer.
Also, while you're at it, explain what prompted you to unvote Mysterio.
Screw it; trying to get out of answering questions, plenty of other stuff including backtracking on the Mysterio wagon (first him claiming VT was directly scummy, then "I'm not intending to be confrontational, that claim is justMysterious(ha) to me") for no explained reason, the rolefishing coupled with the outraged reaction to Mysterio's bite at the bait is more than enough to want KHG strung up.
UNVOTE: Narsis
VOTE: KHG
Who's with me?!-
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WTH overdefensiveness.Narsis wrote:
so you think i killed them then?jimfinn wrote:VOTE: Narsis as the other two players with votes on them at the end of Day 1 are now dead.
Please quit rolefishing. Vimes is more likely, flavorwise, to have his own regular power unconnected with DRUNKENNESS. That might not be the case, but I think that unless the power NEEDS to be claimed it ought to stay hidden.VasudeVa wrote:Whoever this Vimes person is probably should claim his power. It looks like this is the games mechanic. All VTs then random townies get power roles.
Does the Charisntmha thingy D1 have anything to do with double voting? Any theories on what drunkenness does?
TBM. Can we take a moment to consider FakeGod as possible scum who avoided tasty wagon on Town-KHG? I understand the case on VV and to a degree I agree with it, but.
I can't tell either way with VV anymore; Narsis may be looking a bit better; Budja's been sorta quiet but I agree with the FakeGod vote somewhat sooooo.
VV, calling wiki-tell ought to be a wiki-tell. Rolefishing is something which can be done by scum intentionally for scums' outright benefit. Your attempt to discredit TBM's legitimate concerns that way is bad.
That said. VV, you want an organized Town? Have you seen Town-alliances (which reportedly are beneficial even if scum slip into them)? Would you join one and why? The problem is if you're Town - which I'm slightly leaning towards over null right now - there's a lot of town infighting distracting from the real scumbags, and your play right now isn't doing anything to help the situation.
Chainsaw defense much (well, for that to technically be the case VV would have to be scum with Chrono, but either way weird defense is weird)? VV, why do you think Chrono is Town?Chronopie wrote:Just saying Rolefishing is a Scum tell, doesn't help. As afaict it isn't much of one.
I know that I'm probably the antithesis of a good townie. And I know that I tend to Rolefish (sometimes inadvertently), ALOT. Alignment independent. Null tell.
FakeGod, who would you most liked to be voting at the time of this post?FakeGod wrote:
Couldn't have said it better.Narsis wrote:
if you are the antithesis of a good townie then what is the point of keeping you around? wouldn't it be better to kill you now then have you causing trouble later?Chronopie wrote:Just saying Rolefishing is a Scum tell, doesn't help. As afaict it isn't much of one.
I know that I'm probably the antithesis of a good townie. And I know that I tend to Rolefish (sometimes inadvertently), ALOT. Alignment independent. Null tell.
If you're scummy enough to distract other players from their scumhunting, wouldn't the best thing you could do for the town be removing yourself early on via lynch?
preview: ninja'd by narsis.
Chrno real-voted ONCE this entire game. He's made NINE posts, including RVS and confirmation.
VOTE: Chronopie - It's a good wagon, but once we hear a little more I may see cause to do you one at least as good -
THERE IS A PLAYER WHOSE VOTE ON THE KHG WAGON WAS ABOUT AS SUSPECT AS CHRONO'S. COOKIES TO WHOEVER GETS IT RIGHT AND EXPLAINS WHY.
V/LA until Friday. Will be away in Washington, don't expect to have any access.-
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THOR I have recently been revisiting a game I played fairly recently with Chrono-scum and in fact there are distinct similarities in the play. Excessive discussion of mechanics instead of scumhunting is rampant here as there in the early section of the game. I would not shed many tears over a Chrono lynch, sure, BUT we don't have much margin for error and we NEED more informations.
VV, TBM is not likely scum. I have a ad bad feeling you two are both Town having a catfight and frankly that's counterproductive.
FakeGod, VV's call for a Vimes claim is mitigated by the fact that he pretty clearly is entirely unfamiliar wit the flavor basis of this game (not recognizing who Nobby Nobbs was, for example). Many of your other points show that subjectively VV might have a poor grasp of theory (like calling for direct organization of the Town &c.) but points to no scum motivation specifically over theory disagreement. I find your case against VV uncompelling as an argument that he's scum. A LOT of extraneous points you put down (not showing respect for others in the game, not listening to the Mod's request for unvotes to avoid confusion - none of these are scumtells but all are brought up. Why? They seem to attempt to pile more incrimination on VV for things which clearly aren't remotely related to scumtells).
Although. I can't recall why I asked you who you'd prefer to be voting at the time of my post - I probably intended to link to a post of yours when youweren'tvoting. I'll try to recover that sometimes for us.
Narsis takes potshots and I wonder whether that wagon on him yesterday wasn't actually a doubleplus good idea.
THAT said I heavily dislike FG's attempts to lynch players he agrees are mostly anti-town and not mostly scummy. As ANNOYING as that is I'll take the higher road and start to doubt my earlier read on him . .. it's all going to bits and pieces . . .
CHRONO. VOTE NOW. WHY HAVE YOU LIKE NOT VOTED HALF THE GAME?
OH. YOU VOTED. GOOD. BUT. UM. WHAT ARE FG'S INCONSISTENCIES HERE? I'M SMELLING OPPORTUNISTIC SCUM WAGONING BY YOU.
TBM Narsis points are triple plus good. However. Am more feeling the Chrono wagon of late.
No one touched my question about who besides Chrono made EXTREMELY suspect votes on yesterday's KHG wagon. Because. I think it could be the antidote to the KHG mishaps yesterday. That is. A wagon which we can all pile onto real fast but this time actually net scum with it. ANY BITES, OR DOES NO ONE LIKE COOKIES AROUND HERE?
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TBM - Scum Vimes? Possible, certainly, but as far as flavor cues we have to work on, it's improbable. I'm inclined to wait and see this investigation and probably act with the results in mind.
Yeah, by the way.VasudeVa wrote:Also, I was waiting for Tasky to get back so I could everyone's reactions but he was V/LA for a whole fuckin' week.
TASKY. Your vote on KHG yesterday was suspicious as heck. I'll do details later, but it boils down to 'all the effort was poured into the Mysterio wagon at all costs, including discrediting every single vote on the competing wagon piece by piece, so sudden claim that KHG is as scummy and jump on the sweet speeding bandwagon = cognitive dissonance, possible opportunism, &c.'-
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Hmmm. They're decent though not unambiguous points, especially given that Narsis' reasons for requesting the daycop on Tasky were basically the same ones I'd given when I said I wanted a Tasky daycop, and he'd expressed relatively little read on Tasky either way throughout the whole game. My STUFF is that Tasky did one thing weird Day 1 which was un . . . oh, never mind, it probablyVasudeVa wrote:I liked his reaction to the beginning of my gambit(me asking Vimes to claim), and his reaction to my claim and his request to daycop Tasky, to be more precise.wasto blatant buddying, for Tasky to have attacked the Narsis wagon so hard? I suppose. Hm, never mind (somehow in my mind it got transposed, so I remembered it as a more of a chainsaw defense. It wasn't, it really was an attack on all the Narsis attackers . . .)
I'll hazard a probably there . . . I've seen scum pull some weird gambits on the fly with no daytalk whatsoever (gambits where people were like 'Do scum have daytalk, because if not Player X can't possibly be scum' when she was).VasudeVa wrote:Chronopie is Town then.
I'm still not really sure about TBM thar.
Dorfl is publicly confirmed to be in the game. Dorfl is pro-City Watch in the books, as far as I can recall/determine via Wikipedia (Ijimfinn wrote:Dorfl could be a safeclaim if not counterclaimed, don't let the claim get him off the hook.didreadFeet of Clay, just a long time ago). Chrysoprase, scum-Tasky's character, was not (again as far as I can tell). While this isn't entirely conclusive evidence, Dorfl is almost certainly a role in the game and not a safeclaim, and Dorfl is very likely to be a Town role. I am disheartened to see you trying to cast doubt on this and find myself slightly suspicious of you.
For the benefit of VV:
Not On My 'Feel Town' List:
TheButtonmen
Budja
jimfinn
Chronopie??????-
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Plum Mafia Scum
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Sgt. Littlebottom is certainly pro-Watch (and is a she to boot). The question is: Scum may have safeclaims, but will a safeclaim be announced as-is to get a power on a given Day or not? The wording of the flavor is suggestive that it's possible that scum may in fact get single-Day powers . . .Narsis wrote:something you are missing about Tasky...he had a fake claim. or rather i'm assuming he did based on the flavour.
so it looks to me like scum do have fakeclaims. granted i dont know who Sgt. Littlebottom is and how pro-Watch he is, but it does look like he had a fake claim form the flavour.molestargazer wrote: In time, the hiccupping and conversation of the drunken watchmen stopped. They all turned to look at one person - a dwarf, in fact.Sergeant Littlebottomwas stood in the middle of the tavern with a half-empty pint glass, and looked a sorry state with no eyebrows and a beard that was slowly being torn off with nerves.
"Guys-" One of the more drunk trolls turned with his reinforced mug and gave the Sergeant a dreadful stare.
"People-" That didn't help either.
"Watchmen! Right?! That's what we all are!" She broke down in tears now, almost collapsing as she swayed in the middle of the floor.
"It was you, wasn't it?!" Shouted one of the watchmen. Slowly, torturously, the gathered watch heaved themselves off their chairs (some needed help), and gathered in a circle around the Sergeant. One of them raised an empty bottle, and smashed it over the Sergeant's head.
There was a puff of pink smoke which swarmed over the Watchmen, and they recoiled. When they blinked and got their vision back, they weren't looking at Sergeant Littlebottom. Instead, there was a very angry troll.
"It's Chrysoprase!" One of the more sober watchmen shouted. And suddenly, it roared, rearing its rock-like fists. Quickly, the nearest weapons to hand were grabbed and thrust into the centre of the ring of Ankh-Morporkians. Slowly, the troll collapsed.
"How the hell did he manage that?! We thought it was Cheery!"One watchmen asked, staggered. But still, one conspirator had been found.-
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Mine, maybe . . . it would've been easy enough to get an innocent on someone and make it through the day with everyone on the team intact (or at least not auto-condemned by the daycop investigation). Assuming there are three scum, two Townies Dead Day/Night 1 and two Townies dead Day/Night 2 would be Day 3 five Townies and three scumbags alive, which is MYLO if my calculations are correct. It's probably easier and better to do that as scum with a one-shot power than confirm a buddy as scum and such - even if you are let off the hook for a while, at least your buddy might get caught out on connections or whatnot, and with Townies gaining powers most days, the last scumbag would still be vulnerable; the other would be a much easier win in almost all cases.Narsis wrote:A) true. but why go out and buss a partner like that when he didnt need too? Tasky wasnt even on the top of everyone's scum list.-
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I was saying that Tasky was at the top or near the top of at least one and possibly a few more scumlists.
What I'm saying is that scum-VV would almost certainly have an easier time winning claiming an innocent on someone and helping cause a mislynch yesterday than bussing scum-Tasky in that way. Given the numbers and assuming the scum successfully kill every Night, assuming three scumbags three mislynches and Town loses. Getting the second in a row would have been a surer bet than bussing, especially given the mechanic . . .-
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Probably won't hurt to try this, actually.VasudeVa wrote:Actually, maybe we can check that.
FakeGod uses his power on someone, he says who he uses it on. We mass vote for FakeGod and then the voteless person will hammer. If he is not lynched, he is telling the truth.
Although, I'm not sure how vote-stripper is Town.. Is that kind of power usually given to Town?
Don't especially go for a TBM lynch; Budja needs a reread from me; he's felt like kind of a nonentity to this point. Jimfinn too, but my VI read on him is leaning slightly Town of neutral.
VOTE: Budja on gut. I have relatively little time today so will do the rest when I'm back, because
I'll be V/LA until Saturday night/Sunday morning. Jewish New Year and all.
VOTE COUNT
TheButtonmen (3): VasudeVa, Narsis, Budja
FakeGod (1): Thor665
Budja (1): Plum
Not Voting (4): Chronopie, TheButtonmen, jimfinn, FakeGod
With 9 alive, 5 is needed to lynch.
Deadline is Friday 17th.Last edited by molestargazer on Wed Sep 08, 2010 10:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.-
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Thor665 wrote:To put it another way as to why Button is staying at second tier with me - I think scumButton might have been a bit more conciliatory at some point. The "attitude" towards you rings honest to me.Thathas been my issue with TBM overall. I would not have expected scum-TBM to be so confrontational towards a claimed Vimes Dayvig, towards one who called a guilty on Tasky, &c. Those are my major misgivings with the entire premise. That said, a reread of him would be useful for me. I'm trying to force myself to write a college-type essay right now, so.-
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Scum. You're not confirmed anything but that no one else is actually Dorfl. Definitely not Mod-confirmed Town. And Thor's been one of the Towniest players in this game. I can wait on jimfinn, am really worried that Budja's slipping under the ol' radar, and am leaning Town, or simply against a straight scum read in any case, on TBM.FakeGod wrote:V/LA took longer than expected.
Still crazy busy, but quick read reveals that Thor's been doing nothing but tunneling on me, pulling threads about a conspiracy theory and trying to get VV support at all costs.
I hate to get lynched after a mod-confirm-un'ccd claim, especially when last two times (Mysterio and VV) mod gave powers to Vanilla Town. (Mysterio flipped Vanilla, and as far as I can tell, our JK saved VV from an attempted Night Kill, so VV is town, plus, my own situation, a Power-Received Vanilla Town, adds to the credibility if you look at it from my point of view)
In fact, one thing mafia would want to do is to discredit/lynch a mod-confirmed VT, and the exact argument they would make would be to argue WIFOM on how broken the game setup would be if mod were to confirm a townie every day.
Button is also guilty of this with his relationship with VV, and given the time-constraint, he's going to be our lynch today.
Vote: TheButtonmen
P.S. I'm using STRENGTH on Thor. lol
FakeGod>>>jimfin~Budja>TBM
If you're scum, you came into this game with that fakeclaim and knowing that it would be used in flavor like that, presumably.FakeGod wrote:@Narsis: He wanted me lynched; hence his vote was on me.
He showed no intention of switching it, and deadline's in 4 days.
@Chrono: It's great that you know the flavor much more that I do.
Flavor Question: I wiki'd a bit and learned that Dorfl, like other golems, speak by pronouncing all of his words with capitalization. Is this true?
Because I breadcrumbed in my 327 (onset of day 2) this:
Capitalization of all words. Something (I hope) what Dorfl does in the series.FakeGod's 327 wrote: Why State Obvious Things? Just In Case Mafia Didn't Understood???
Since you know the flavor well, I take it that you saw the breadcrumb? (did anyone else?)
or are my wiki skills failing....
Yeah, power use on Thor, mostly because Thor stated intents to vote for him and whatnot, show priority of survival over stuff like scumhunting.Budja wrote:unvote, vote FG
Vote + power use show strong survival instinct.-
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I wouldn't bother mod-WIFOM on which characters are more/less likely to be real vs. safe/fakeclaims,Thor665 wrote:In any case, I'm somewhat neutral about trying to figure out which characters would or would not be scum based off of relative importance to the series - we can start that contemplation after we see another scum flip because then it might be a bit more viable, for now, 'meh'.especiallybefore a mass nameclaim (which considering we have Vimes claimed VT and someone else claimed powerrole might have little in the way of a downside - but I digress). As a Mod I've known myself to mix it up quite a bit and give safeclaims along the spectrum of 'important characters' fairly proportional to the characters I actually put in the game.-
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Uh, no.FakeGod wrote:@Thor: Backing out? You understand that I made a serious accusation to you (that you are lying/not convinced of your own stance). You can't just say our opinions differ, when you never pointed out where in my accusation was wrong.
My Logic:
Fact 1: Thor says he believes that mod is confirming scum as well as town.
Fact 2: Thor says he will still believe that mod is confirming scum as well as town even if I were to flip VT.
Therefore, Thor believes that there is at least one scum among the 4 people (Mysterio, VV, me, New-Mod-Confirmed Player).
But Mysterio and I am VT, and VV has claimed Vimes and has caught us a scum.
Therefore, New-Mod-Confirmed Player is scum.All I'm asking you to do is point out where in my logic that I'm wrong and tell me why.I really don't think I'm asking for much here, and we don't have time for your evade and avoid maneuvers.
For example, what if the Mod throws a die every day to see which player is getting which predetermined one-day-only power (presumably he designed the powers so that however it fell out the game would remain approximately as balanced)? Then any Day we might be getting a Townie 'confirmed' or a scumbag 'confirmed'. Just because we happen to get Town hit with them a few Days in a row would in hat very plausible case have no bearing whatsoever on the alignment of the player chosen to get a temporary power the next Day, d'ya see?
In any case, Thor doesn't say a thing about Mod giving powers to scum as well as Town meaning 'by Day 4 scum must get a power'. It's a conjecture on your part. There's nothing indicatingThorbelieves that.
VOTE: FakeGod
Meant to do this in my last post.-
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You don't understand How Probability Works. Each event resolves independently of the others. Day 1, assuming 3/12 scum, there's a %25 chance a scumbag gets a power. Assume Town lynch, Town kill as we have here, the next Day we have 3/10 scumbags, or a %30 chance of scum getting powered. Now add a scum lynch and no kill as we had last cycle. Today we'd have a 2/9 chance of scum getting powered, or about %22 chance. Assume Town lynch, Town kill tonight, tomorrow we're at 2/7 scumbags which is a bit under a %29 chance of scum getting powered. As a matter of fact, each Day it's considerably more likely that Town get powered than scum. Now that you say this, it may be that you're acting this way partly because you Have No Clue How Probability Works.FakeGod wrote:@Plum: Are you aware that even in your hypothetical setup I would be right. If Thortruly believesthat mod is picking scum as well as town, and if we assume your hypothetical dice setup, then Thor would vote the last Mod-Confirmed-Player. It's simple probabilities. Assuming there are 3 scum out of 12 people, what's the chance that mod picks 4 people, and there areno scumin the picked people?
It comes out to be 14/55 or around 25.45%. (9 choose 4 over 12 choose 4) Therefore, chance that there will be at least 1 scum among the 4 picked is around 75.45%. (and by process of elimination which I pointed out above, it will be the last Mod-Confirmed-Player)
If I really believed in a theory that says that chance of this one player being scum is around 75.45%, you bet my vote would be on that person right away, and I meanright away.
I confirm that I believe the Mod isn't powering only Townies with Day-powers. Um, wasn't that obvious?
jimfinn is way ahead of me on probability theory but here more explanation within reason is probably fine.-
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My gut has been muttering to me for ages 'look at Budja' but I don't know why. I'm in school and have Psych questions to type up, but someday. We'll see. I'll look at VV's analysis of FG not being a likely Tasky buddy but am inclined to believe that he notied something legitimate, given that he noticed it and whatnot.-
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I echo your sentiments on Chrono but we'll be lynching him soon unless we get proof of his alignment anyway, as per the one-Day-before-LYLO deal. But that's actually likely to net scum (the scum not having tried to kill him vs. VV last Night is especially ODD).TheButtonmen wrote:I'm getting nervous about Jimfinn, Narsis, Budja and Chrono, way too much lurking / sheeping coming from that area and while I can explain most of it due to inexperiance it's becoming increasinly worrying as the game advances. I'm most bothered by Chronos as his claimed status as a protective role, where his play today isn't what I expect from an outted PR at all.
Narsis is unlikely to be a Tasky buddy at this point.-
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Uh, if you're Town JK youChronopie wrote:I gambled, protected VV, and (presumably) stopped a kill. Probably won't get so lucky twice. Ofc all this debate about whether I'm actually a JK is probably going to wifom the scum into keeping me alive for the potential of an easy lylo win. until then, I'm going to try stay one step ahead of them.didn'tgamble, which is precisely my point: protecting VV was easily the most viable option for you then. Thescumgambled: either you're Town and they tried to kill someone other than you or you're scum and the scumteam probably decided to no-kill. Oh, and while we're on the topic, Chrono: Who'd you protect Night 1 and why didn't you say so when you claimed?
What bothers me is that if we lynch jimfinn today we . . . well, if neither of {jimfinn, Chronopie} are scum then we have some tough endgame choices ahead of us.
JIMFINN, claim ASAP and we'll discuss ASAP.-
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OH CRUD CRUD CRUD CRUD.
I looked up the name from my Role PM for spelling and all that and the Mod made an error - it's fomulated as a quote, and the quoted from bit says 'Rag Shoe Role PM wrote'.
Dangit, if we'd caught that we could've used it. Well. At least the Mod will be happy that it didn't affect the game .
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