Ladies Night -- Game Over

[Apokalyptika]

/confirm

And hello to you too

[Apokalyptika]

Ok, this is interesting. I'm not sure what Hoopla's trying to do here; on the one hand I doubt that scum would give themselves such a high profile so early, but on the other hand her behavior doesn't scream town. I fail to see whether it matters if Hoopla cares about me as a player or not, but for the record: I played a couple of newbie games a while ago that I'm too lazy to go back and look up, and I don't know that I have a playstyle or anything to offer the town other than trying to win using my best reasoning.

I admit that my opinion of Hoopla may be skewed negatively due to the dismissive attitude that she's currently taking with the few players that haven't met her high standards. In addition, I personally dislike when RL emotions and the intentional triggering of same get involved in Mafia games, and Hoopla seems to be trying to piss as many people off as possible. It may possibly be a tactic to motivate discussion, but it seems more likely to cloud logical reasoning with emotion and thus give scum more room to maneuver.

Also, newest Hoopla post came up as I was about to post. Now I'm definitely feeling padding; either try to bring the game out of random stage or don't. I think I'm currently justified in casting a

vote: Hoopla

.

[Apokalyptika]

Haylen, I'd say your reaction was about a 7. Hoopla, I may possibly be overjustifying, but I frankly think this mucking around with number/rating scales is a big waste of time, and neither you nor anyone else have shown that it is contributing to the game in any way, whether it be random fun or scumhunting.

[Apokalyptika]

Well, different strokes for different folks, I suppose.

Hoopla, I'd like some elaboration on why you said that you wouldn't lynch Fenchurch, Ojanen or camn today. I'm presuming that wasn't entirely serious, but I'd like to more fully understand why you said that.

On a lighter note, I am loving not having to check pronouns

[Apokalyptika]

RedCoyote, I'm voting Hoopla. Also, my name has two k's in it.

/nitpick

I'm sorry; I didn't even notice.

esurio, hate to beat a dead horse, but do you regard the Haylen/Hoopla interaction to be more or less fluffy than my use of the word "Interesting"?

I just now noticed that Alexithymia is a Haylen alt, so based on the game I played with her, I'd say the emotional reaction is a nulltell.

-snip-

DGB, Are you here yet? I need your opinion on Apokalyptika.

On first read, I thought her jumping in on Hoopla was pretty scummy, but on second read I thought Hoopla WAS pretty scummy. But I do have a tingle that one of them is scum.

That said, I am not ready for a Haylen lynch quite yet, but esuriospiritus I dont know, and I don't appreciate her own assessment of her ability to benefit the town.

VOTE: esuriospiritus

------------------------------
----preview edit.-------------

UNVOTE

I like your last post esurio. Enough to go with my instincts,

which is what DGB will tell me to do anyway.

VOTE : Apokalyptika

Bolding is mine.

I don't even know what's going on here. This seems almost over-the-top scummy to me. camn, why would DGB's opinion matter so much to you that you would base your votes on it? Are there any other players here that you hold in such high regard?

FoS: camn

.

DGB:

When you read this, could you please tell me your opinion of camn's post?

On another note, that little interaction between UncertainKitten and Snow_Bunny was...hm, can't say interesting...how about unusual? I don't think this is a scumtell per se, but it almost seemed as if UK were leading Snow. Not FoS-worthy, but I'll keep an eye on it.

[Apokalyptika]

Unvote, Vote: camn

I wanted to give camn a chance to clarify her statements.

By over-the-top scummy, I meant that the buddying was to such an extent that I'm almost not sure what to make of it. For instance:

Mild: "Hm, those players seem to be voting together a lot. Something to keep an eye on."
Medium: "Huh, not only are they voting together, but they attack whoever casts suspicion on either one and defend each other. That's scummy."
Severe: What camn is doing. It seems too blatant to be scum, but it doesn't seem town either...it's just bizarre. Also, without DGB here to possibly clarify/give her opinions on what's going on, I feel like I might be getting an incomplete picture. However, I feel that I can't overlook it, hence the FoS and now vote.

[Apokalyptika]

So I slept on it, and also I've been a good little girl and read up on some older games of camn's (and Hoopla's) to get some context. I noticed from Medieval Mafia that camn loves policy-whatevering people as town. I also saw a somewhat lesser degree of buddying. My case was not as strong as I had envisioned.

Unvote: camn

In a few hours, I'll make a rather longer post wherein I try to analyze camn and Hoopla deeper, as well as Haylen (who I'm finding rather hard to read at the moment).

(And yes, I'm aware that I am waffling quite a bit at the moment.)

[Apokalyptika]

Apology accepted, UK.

Hoopla: After skimming through a couple games you played, I'm finding you somewhat more suspicious. In Large Normal 105, you were town. In Mini 909 and Mini 865, you were scum. In each of the latter two, you said some things that drew definite attention to you (in the first, fakeclaiming miller; in the second, suggesting random D1 lynch.) In the game where you were town, I didn't see any such dramatic statements. To me, this indicates that you aren't afraid of drawing attention to yourself as scum, such as you did at the beginning of this day.

Haylen: I find you hard to read, since your playstyle is emotional and hyperactive, which makes it harder to pick out scumtells. One thing I did notice is your subtle defense of Paws; while others have noted that Paws is experienced on other sites and thus can't be called a newb, you maintained that Paws was feeling like newb-town, and even when she keeps refusing to post content you only downgrade her to newb-neutral. If Paws is town, then this isn't as revealing, but if Paws ever turns up as scum, I think this is a worthy avenue to explore.

However, it occurs to me that there are more than 4 players in this game that I can have lots of fun commenting on, so:

Paws: Nothing to say here that hasn't been said by others. I googled the mafia sites linked to in her sig, and GDS and MafiaCentral appear to be somewhat legit on first glance. Haven't read any of her games, but hopefully this puts to rest any of the newb defenses. Also, there is no excuse for stating you have suspicions and refusing to elaborate.

esurio: Generally nice. Says a lot, but there's a lot of noncommittal stuff going on in there. Your first vote for me was because of gut, overjustification, and the use of the word 'interesting'. Your vote for chau, while backed up with decent reasoning, has the caveat of "That's the vibe I get, anyway." I think you made some interesting points, such as possible coaching by Sotty, but the wishy-washy language nags at me.

cepi: Not enough to get an opinion (for the record, I made that post on Hoopla while people were posting at a rapid pace, so by the time I finally submitted it, I had become more suspicious of Hoop than when I started.)

chauchau: I'm liking you at the moment; you made good points on Snow_Bunny and esurio and seem helpful.

Snow_Bunny:

-snip-
Come on girls, more camn love. This reaction to my vote is interesting.

Hmm...

interesting

? Given that this actually has no elaboration behind it, would you like to give some? Also, esurio, any comment?

Sotty7: Post 110 The first part here where you call out Haylen for her attitude towards Paws is made out of all sorts of win. As I said before, there is some suggestion of coaching in the latter half, but on the whole, this and other posts give me a town feel.

UncertainKitten: You do a fair bit of good discussion. Question: In your last post related to me, did you mean that you thought me scummy or that you thought I was a dumbass? I'm sensing the first more, but I'm not entirely sure. On the whole, worth keeping around.

With all that said,

Vote: Paws

. This puts her to L-3 if I counted right. Easy wagon? Maybe, but her behavior is scummy, and even if she is town I judge her to be the most expendable of any of us. Also, pressure has been known to turn coal into diamonds.

[Apokalyptika]

So looking at esurio's suspicions, the people she was on the whole day were myself, Sotty, and chau. In her Paws-related iso post, she said that either Sotty or I might be Paws' scumbuddy. However, she also said that if Paws flipped scum, chau looked more town to her, and that that was the best thing that she had to say about her. The fact that esurio was NK'd implies that she was along the right track in some way, which implicates chau to some degree. I don't see her as scummy, though, so I'm not sure how much validity there is; just putting it out there.

DGB, I'd love to hear why you think I'm scummy. cepi, that's a very weak case you have against me (because I didn't post a playstyle???).

I agree that Haylen's coy refusal to acknowledge scum daytalk is very incriminating, especially since she's been following the game up to this point.

Vote: Haylen

The absence of any countering town-tells makes me comfortable with my vote.

Going to sleep now, but goals for next post: Reread DGB/Sucrose/Snow until I have definite reads on them, and some light vote analysis.

[Apokalyptika]

Sucrose is giving me town feelings, as is DGB to a lesser extent. Snow, I'm not a huge fan of, and her tunneling on camn isn't great, but I still feel my Haylen vote is the place to be.

[Apokalyptika]

I used those specific Hoopla games for analysis because the other, more recent ones were less similar to this game (had SKs, different mechanics, more unusual PRs, etc.) and I felt that I would get a clearer read with some more similar games. As for why I didn't say anything about Paws, there wasn't really much to say. She wasn't giving anybody anything to comment on except frustration at her lack of participation, and there wasn't anything I could offer there that someone else hadn't already said.

With regards to my earlier posts that people are taking such an interest in now, I don't see that voting on the basis of an oddity was as sinful as it's being made out to be. This was still relatively early in day 1, and there were no blinking neon signs pointing out the scum. I think it's better to throw anything that strikes me oddly out there so that it's in the public eye; I may be totally off-base and wrong and making a mountain out of a molehill, or I may have sliced through scum's cunning facade.

DGB, how on earth did that solitary post cause you to do such a drastic flip on Haylen? That makes no sense from where I'm standing.

[Apokalyptika]

The fact that esurio was NK'd implies that she was along the right track in some way, which implicates chau to some degree.

Apok, there are many other potential reasons for a night-kill. What makes you think this is the most likely explanation for esurio's?

Very strange question, considering I never said that it was the most likely explanation; if you look later in the very same post, I said that I didn't find chau scummy, and that it wasn't a statement of suspicion so much as throwing thoughts out there.

Snow, I'm not a huge fan of, and her tunneling on camn isn't great, but I still feel my Haylen vote is the place to be.

Do you think Snow_Bunny's tunnelling is a scumtell? Towntell? Neither?

I think it's about 35:65 between nulltell and scumtell. Given that the initial vote was a policy vote, and further justifications were "didn't like her reaction" and now "too much talk and too little good", whatever that means...the two most likely possibilities are either it's just tunneling, which would be a nulltell, or it's a safe noncommittal place for scum to rest in until a wagon builds up enough steam to vote on.

Hm...actually, now that I've gone and written that out, Snow_Bunny really doesn't look too great.

camn's Post 381 is something I initially overlooked, and it's an excellent point. I note Haylen hasn't responded to it...Haylen, thoughts?

As regards my meta-searching: I've never actively tried to find meta in players before, and I did a subpar job. I'm well aware that this isn't an excuse, but it is an explanation.

cepi, I didn't comment on the other things you said were scummy about my first post because I'd already elaborated on them before.

[Apokalyptika]

Null---UK---Snow_Bunny-----------------------------Haylen-----Scum

I don't like UK's overreaction to Snow's case. I realize that she is very emotional, but in my opinion there's a point where it becomes scummy regardless of any meta. Also, compared to the chumminess earlier in D1, it's odd in a non-town way. And just so nobody can misinterpret me, I am not trying to instigate a wagon on UK.

Also, I'm about 99.99% sure that at least one person voting me is scum. Trouble is, I have neutral or town reads on all of them. Clearly some reevaluating is necessary on my part.

Hoopla, let me make it clear that I'm not trying to get Snow_Bunny lynched. Right now, I don't want to see her lynched. I wouldn't be heartbroken if it happened, but I'd much prefer Haylen. The thing is, I didn't see before why people were so eager to jump all over her, and writing it out made it clearer in my mind. Similarly, Fenchurch, I said it was a possibility. Maybe esurio was killed because she had good scumreads. Maybe she was killed because someone wanted to frame her scumreads. Maybe she was killed for some completely different reason, I don't know. I said a lot of stuff like "implies" and "to a certain degree" precisely because I wasn't sure. I'm sure someone will come along and say "OMG VAGUE STATEMENTS YOU'RE SCUM" now, but I never meant to state that I thought that was the most likely reason.

[Apokalyptika]

So, Fenchurch, unless I'm misunderstanding you, you think that as scum I would say in this thread why the NK was performed, when there was no need whatsoever to even bring it up? Really? Also, those are my suspicions in general; I'm having trouble because a lot of people are looking null or town to me, which is unusual. I need to do rereading on people who were voting me in particular.

I'm not sure how I'm supposed to get more emphatic. I want to see Haylen lynched today. I don't want Snow_Bunny lynched today. I don't want UK lynched today, even if she is pissing me off. I said that Snow's lynch wouldn't break my heart because it would yield a lot of information, but I still think Haylen is the best option. Is that clear enough? Also, Haylen, any thoughts on 381?

I'll probably be gone until late tonight/tomorrow. Don't lynch me before then.

[Apokalyptika]

Town: chau/Snow White, Hoopla, Fenchurch, Ojanen, Sotty
Neutral: Sucrose, camn, DGB, cepi
Scum: UK, Snow_Bunny, Haylen

Also, I'm at L-2, so not quite "claim or die" yet, mkay?

My case on Haylen again: Does scummy things (day-talk weirdness, hypocrisy re. scumminess of not reading thread), tries to sweep them under the rug (obviously with daytalk thing, hasn't answered the question camn posed), makes a lot of fluff posts, and has not made any cases or given me any reason to find her town.

Preview edit: Hoopla makes a good point. My list is approx. in order of scumminess, so DGB/cepi would be where I would look (DGB's hopping onto Haylen then off with almost no reasoning = meh and cepi's doing a lot of blustering and not as much analysis to back it up as I'd like.)

P.S. I'll bet you anything you like that cepi's next post will say something like "You're setting up an OMGUS on me DIESCUM"

[Apokalyptika]

Claim: Vigilante

(breadcrumbed in post 428)

I don't want Snow_Bunny lynched today because I think she is much less scummy than Haylen.

That being said, I appreciate the case on camn.

Gonna nap for a couple of hours.

[Apokalyptika]

The fact that esurio was NK'd implies that she was along the right track in some way, which implicates chau to some degree.

Apok, there are many other potential reasons for a night-kill. What makes you think this is the most likely explanation for esurio's?

V

ery strange question, considering I never said that it was the most likely explanation; if you look later in the very same post, I said that I didn't find chau scummy, and that it wasn't a statement of suspicion so much as throwing thoughts out there.

Snow, I'm not a huge fan of, and her tunneling on camn isn't great, but I still feel my Haylen vote is the place to be.

Do you think Snow_Bunny's tunnelling is a scumtell? Towntell? Neither?

I

think it's about 35:65 between nulltell and scumtell.

G

iven that the initial vote was a policy vote, and further justifications were "didn't like her reaction" and now "too much talk and too little good", whatever that means...the two most likely possibilities are either it's just tunneling, which would be a nulltell, or it's a safe noncommittal place for scum to rest in until a wagon builds up enough steam to vote on.

Hm...actually, now that I've gone and written that out, Snow_Bunny really doesn't look too great.

camn's Post 381 is something I initially overlooked, and it's an excellent point. I note Haylen hasn't responded to it...Haylen, thoughts?

As regards my meta-searching: I've never actively tried to find meta in players before, and I did a subpar job. I'm well aware that this isn't an excuse, but it is an explanation.

cepi, I didn't comment on the other things you said were scummy about my first post because I'd already elaborated on them before.

There you go. Also, I didn't target anyone last night, because I didn't have firm enough suspicions on anyone.

As for the camn case, I think there are good points (the playbook should have gotten more attention than it did, in retrospect, also Paws vote strangeness) and bad ("policy lynching" Haylen when the closest she got to voting her was vote/preview edit/unvote?). Good points outweigh the bad, though, and Ojanen's excitement gives me warm fuzzy town feelings.

-----------

Wrote this earlier, then skimmed the game to reread camn and Haylen. It's actually very strange that camn has never had a vote on Haylen, even though she's been suspicious of her for a large part of the game (post 71 stood out to me first in this regard). The fact that she fake-voted her with the preview edit thing doesn't reflect well at all; it's a good way to look like you're putting more pressure on a player than you are. She's been nipping at Haylen all game, but hasn't drawn blood, so to speak. I know I'm totally biased now towards seeing camn/Haylen scumbuddies, but GUYS CAMN/HAYLEN SCUMBUDDIES THINK ABOUT IT.

Also: Haylen, why would you keep town reads hidden? That's information you're denying the town. Not good.

[Apokalyptika]

Refusal to claim? Resignation to the lynch?

Oh well, what the hell.

Unvote, Vote: camn

[Apokalyptika]

By my reckoning, based on major wagons:

At least one of cepi, DGB, Hoopla, and SnowBunny is scum. (my wagon)
At least one of Sotty7, DGB, and UK is scum. (Paws wagon)
At least one of Ojanen, Hoopla, UK, and SnowBunny is scum. (camn wagon)

We can divide this into categories:

People on one wagon: Ojanen, Sotty7, cepi.
People on two wagons: DGB, UK, Hoopla, SnowBunny.
People on none of the above wagons: Sucrose/DI, chauchau/Snow White.

Of the first group, I would say that at most 1 is scum.
Of the second group, I would say that either 1 or 2 is scum.
I don't really have anything to say about the third group, I just put them there for the sake of completeness.

I still believe Ojanen to be town. This means either Sotty7 or cepi is scum, or perhaps neither, though probably not both.
I don't have any basis to rule out anybody in the second group, so I'm going to be focusing on them unless I have good reason not to.

Actually, upon reading cepi's case, it occurs to me that UK made no posts between day start and Snow's. Which posts made you feel UK was more town, precisely?

[Apokalyptika]

First off, apologies to all. This week has been busier than anticipated.

I definitely wasn't expecting Snow_Bunny to claim cop; I'm inclined towards believing it for now, though. As Ojanen said, it's a hard claim to pull off as scum here. So assuming Snow_Bunny is telling the truth, UK is somewhat cleared. Then, of course, we have that frustrating no-result on DGB...I'm holding off comment on that for the moment, though.

If SB is cop:

Unclear people on Paws: Sotty7 and DGB, with UK semiclear.
Unclear people on me: cepi, DGB, Hoopla.
Unclear people on camn: Ojanen and Hoopla, with UK semiclear.

Now, scum might avoid the Paws wagon because it seemed "too easy", and they might avoid the camn wagon for fear that Ojanen had some brilliant and scum-finding plan, but I can't see any good reason that they would avoid voting me. Thus, some subset of cepi, DGB, and Hoopla is scum. Of those three, I would be most inclined to believe DGB's scumminess. Going back to my list of people on 2 wagons (DGB, UK, SB, Hoopla), this is reinforced, as Hoopla's more townish than DGB from where I'm sitting. I'm not sure where I'd go from there, though, at least for now.

If SB is scum:

If SB is scum, then we should obviously be all over UK. I'd actually be more inclined to believe DGB to be town in this case; I can't see any reason scum would fake a roleblock on a scumpartner.

In both cases, though more if SB's cop, I have a slight feeling that one of Snow White/Dizzy is scum, just because I'm having real difficulty with finding a believable 3-person scumgroup.

Also, Hoopla, great post just now. I'm curious, does anyone else have any thoughts on my wagon? I feel that there's some real information there somewhere.

Note to self: SB voters were Sotty, cepi, Hoopla and UK, with pressure from DGB and Ojanen.

[Apokalyptika]

stuff stuff stuff

In both cases, though more if SB's cop, I have a slight feeling that one of Snow White/Dizzy is scum, just because I'm having real difficulty with finding a believable 3-person scumgroup.

stuff stuff stuff

Called it.

Vote: Dizzy

[Apokalyptika]

One of DI and SB is lying. I strongly oppose a DI lynch. STRONGLY. I think this is a very wrong decision.

We apparently don't have a roleblocker/JK, is that right? That means that SB is lying.

Come on ladies, USE YOUR BRAINS.

Um, at what point did we decide we didn't have a RB/JK?

[Apokalyptika]

"I am either vanilla, or a blocker targeting SB N1, or a jk targeting SB or DGB N1." That's the message I read.

[Apokalyptika]

I agree with massclaim as well.

[Apokalyptika]

I was about to say that I felt better about Hoopla, but then I went back and read. Hoopla's first post after the claim says that she tends not to believe it, while Miyu says she has no reason not to in one of her megaposts. Seems strange that Hoopla would actively say she didn't believe, given the knowledge she claims...

[Apokalyptika]

Eek! I didn't realize that I hadn't posted in so long. It's the week before school starts for me, so I've been busy, but I am sorry.

I'm going to agree with a lot of people here and say that Miyu's looking a lot scummier than Hoopla, largely because of the refusal to try to prove that Hoopla's scum. Also, since that role's had a lot of replacements and inactivity, there is no voting pattern and not that much in general to base a decision on. So, most of what I'm seeing when rereading is current scummy behavior, without anything to counterbalance it. I'm tempted to vote now, but I want to hear more people weighing in before that.

Also, according to my views on voting patterns and gameplay, if Hoopla's real, then cepi's likely the last scum. If Miyu's real, I really have no clue, though I'd lean towards Sotty simply because of the semi-clear on UK.

Anyone else have any half-formed thoughts on that?

[Apokalyptika]

Huh...actually, Miyu's last post makes me feel a lot better about her. I didn't catch it earlier, but I actually had the same question about shots a couple (game) days ago, and I couldn't find the answer in the rules. I sent a PM to Red and he said that both shots do resolve simultaneously, but the fact that Hoopla knows this and Miyu evidently doesn't is...distressing. Combined with her other points, I'm actually feeling a drastic change in outlook here. I should reread, I think.

[Apokalyptika]

Woohoo! Go town!

I feel like I didn't really get a good handle on this game for a long time...it's actually rather embarrassing, reading back. Still, this was a fun game. It's really reminded me of how much I enjoy playing Mafia, so thanks to everyone involved.

Also, Hoopla, I had one tiny insignificant suspicion of you that it would seem frivolous to even bring up, but:

Also, RIP fenchurch.

The fact that you didn't mention Haylen nagged in the back of my head for a while. Was this a scumslip, or was I overanalyzing as I usually do?