Mini 1036 - DEFCON Mafia - Over

[AurorusVox]

Lucky I choose Fail Safe ability.

Activate Failsafe

DIE SCUM.

Thought we didn't pick til DEFCON 4

[AurorusVox]

Thoughts?

I think it makes sense if people make their own judgement calls from the start. Like Percy says, if scum thinks we're all going for protective roles, they'll just go for all the bastard-killing attacks, guaranteed to get their first choice every time. Or, it could introduce far too much WIFOM in case

everyone

were to pick a universally accepted first choice - imagine if scum actually got ahold of the Espionage ability.

On the flip side, if scum try to pick abilities that best suit town, it doens't do them any favours except insofar as "town not having it". It makes them weaker by making town weaker. So really, it's swings and roundabouts - and it boils down to "how far is it a good idea to neutralise the enemy by sacrificing some of your own power," against "trying to make yourself more powerful at the risk of leaving the enemy with more dangerous abilities." I know where on the scale I fall on, but I think different players will answer that question differently :\


Btw, since I missed this earlier, I've played with Hindu (obv) and Elscouta before ^^

[AurorusVox]

Only submarine(And maybe fail safe? Idk) can have a missile silo as well as the ability.

From what I can tell, the sub lets you have a silo ONLY in launch mode with the upside being that you can deploy it "unnamed" during D1 of DEFCON 1. The FailSafe doesn't let you deploy a missile at will, but automatically deploys it at anyone who fires a nuke at you. So the missile silo is a part of the ability, not additional to it.

[AurorusVox]

Mm. Enigma, I think you're right to point out that if you get option 6, the others were taken by someone else, but even if you knew that 1-5 were taken, you still wouldn't know if town or scum had taken them. So it's not really that helpful.

[AurorusVox]

IN THAT HIGHLY UNLIKELY PRESENTED SCENARIO

Do you think it's that unlikely? If you miss out on your first choice, then you could end up going way down the line if other people have picked your other choices as their first choice.

[AurorusVox]

Due to the randomization system...HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

Isn't that assuming that someone's second preference is worth as much as someone else's first preference?

@Faraday

It's not really harming the discussion at the moment either. Is there a "really good reason" you don't want people to understand how abilities are generated?

[AurorusVox]

Eavesdrop: This can easily be worked around. Scum have had 1 week to formulate ways of communicating in their quicktopic which won't reveal anything useful.
And personally if I was scum I would spam something that would incriminate a townie (etc etc) 10 times and hope it would get intercepted. A whole case of WIFOM. Useless.

What changed since #25 where you suggested Eavesdrop might make a good first or second choice alongside Espionage?

Radar: A crap version of a tracker. Rather useless.

Why a crap version? The only thing it misses are Stealth Bombers (which scum don't have til DEFCON 2). Oh, wait, unless "Stealth Bombers" = the regular "night kill" ability?

[AurorusVox]

No, that was what I meant. In which case I'd agree that the "Radar" isn't as useful as a tracker.

[AurorusVox]

I'm suspicious of Faraday - looks to me that he was trying to stifle the discussion without providing anything else to talk about (a'la Doombunny9's latest post).

[AurorusVox]

I'm suspicious of Faraday - looks to me that he was trying to stifle the discussion without providing anything else to talk about (a'la Doombunny9's latest post).

I was not stifling discussion. As I said before the kinds of discussions you and Enigma were having were fine just as long as that's not all you're talking about and I have provided in the shove in the right direction with the question I asked town which seemed to provoke plenty of good discussion.

That's what I was saying. I think you've misunderstood my point - where I said "a'la Doombunny9's latest post" I meant that your latest post was an example of "providing something else to talk about". Replace the "a'la" with "unlike" and you should get what I meant.

[AurorusVox]

Can we all just twiddle our thumbs and stop hating until we can start voting. Let's be friends while it lasts!

In all seriousness though, I know it's pointless discussion but I really don't know how fruitful scumhunting will be until everyone gets a chance to put their vote where their mouth is.

You can look at the discrepancy between what people say now and what they do in DEFCON 3, which might give us some useful information. But probably less helpful if not everyone participates (which they'll hopefully do when we do get to DEFCON 3)

[AurorusVox]

"General Macintosh, report."
"Yessir. We have seen suspicious activity on the borders of Faradayland."
"Keep an eye on them, General."
"Yessir."

Vote: Faraday

for reasons stated earlier in the thread.

---

Is it really a good idea to narrow down who has the submarine?

[AurorusVox]

@Andrius:
I can see the benefit in claiming submarine, but I agree that others we should hold off on claiming.

In any case, I didn't even try for the sub (lol, am I the only one?)

[AurorusVox]

*EBWOP

I meant "narrowing" submarine (peoples' reasons above convinced me ^^)

[AurorusVox]

Lol sorry Andrius, I

was

aware that I could pick from any troop type

[AurorusVox]

Also, as Elscouta said, no one out which one of your choices you get.

I got my submarine refused.

A case of do as I say not as I do?

[AurorusVox]

I'm going to be without internet access 4th-17th, but I'll still try to post once per day at the library so hopefully it won't make much difference. If I don't manage to get online at all, it would probably be better if I was replaced than going V/LA for the entire time, which is why I don't want to make it anything official.

[AurorusVox]

*post at least once per day. I can probably be online for about an hour (or maybe even more) but it'll all be in one sitting.

[AurorusVox]

Hello, I'm still alive. I might only get off one post every two days, up until this weekend, and then after that I'll be coming onto campus once a day. In any case, I've been reading the thread on my phone, but for some reason it won't let me log in properly. So sorry, I'll try to keep this short...

That's not the terrorist wincon. That's all the wincons.

Is it the town's wincon for everyone to die?

Elscouta/Faraday debate

Looks like i'm supposed to say something >.>
[...]Gut read.

^Active lurking? My suspicions of active lurking itself were lessened when he started posting actual arguments. But we'll get onto those in a moment...

Without explanation

Claiming someone is town

without explanation

: a classic scum move

At this point the emphasis is on the lack of explanation, which I think is a fair point, though plenty of people make assertions without explicitly explaining why, so I'd treat it as a null tell. And, Faraday does go on to explain his reasoning...

I'm saying I think if Andrius was scum he'd have been told by his scumbuddies that he could pick from more than one area for his list.

I think this analysis makes sense. Unless all three scum thought you could only pick from one area, which is unlikely.


I'd also argue that "no explanations" is just the way that Faraday plays. It's irritating, but it does look to at least be consistent:

All 3 of your points are 100% wrong. No need to thank me.

Kewl no reasoning. I must say you make a very convincing argument.

Outing town tells

As for the "three points" themselves;

- First, town has no reason to say they believe someone to be town when this person is not attacked. It only helps scum to help decide on their nightkills.

I do think that outing town-tells helps scum since they can see who the "towniest" players are and get a gauge of how well they're mixing in with the crowd. However, town do have reasons to out their town reads every now and again. It helps narrow the list of people to scumhunt, and can be used to explain WHY you're narrowing the list.

- Second, scum has a lot of reasons to say someone is town. It "looks" like scumhunting, usually makes the scum take less pressure than an accusation, and has some buddying effect.

Do you think that Faraday's post, without explanation (your first emphasis) "looked" like scumhunting? Because I think if he wanted to look like he was scumhunting he would have included his reasons earlier. Also, Zheo made a good point for why scum

shouldn't

declare town reads.

sharing town reads leaves a paper trail, making it harder to go back on that later to push a mislynch. Scum doesn't have much of a motivation to cut their choices like that.

- Last, this is not well known has a scumtell, so scum usually don't try to avoid this.

You were caught in a contradiction here.

Inaccurately calling on meta-authority to back up a shitty point, also backpedalling. I'd go so far as to say this backpedalling is

classic

!

...it just makes me swing more towards the Faraday side of the argument.

Vote; Elscouta

[AurorusVox]

If it's classic, why is it not well known?

[AurorusVox]

I'd gladly welcome someone dropping a nuke on Faraday.

We've still got to drop 2 DEFCONs to get to the Nuke-dropping, IIRC.
We either wait 2 weeks to hit DEFCON 2, or we lynch someone to drop to DEFCON 2.

Nuke Faraday now?

Just realised. Andrius could be feigning ignorance to the rules. He seems to understand the DEFCON issue in that first post, but then seems to misunderstand it in the second. Something to bare in mind about the whole "ability picking" issue. Faraday, what do you make of that, seeing as Andrius' ignorance of the rules was your main reason for finding him townie?

---

After a reread, i would like to state that Hinduragi looks by a long way the most opportunistic of my voters.

Moreso than SpyreX? Are you sure you didn't just want to vote for Hindu because...someone else already had?

[AurorusVox]

From what I saw, he wasn't purposefully breadcrumbing, it just looked like you could work it out based on what he had said. More like a slip than a motivated action.

[AurorusVox]

If elsie is at l-1, would it be a good time for him to claim what action he has? Or is it too early for that already?

[AurorusVox]

(Internet should be with me soon, so I can stop having to walk for this game!)

Two players are making me uncomfortable; Andrius and Doombunny.

Doombunny9

Anyway throwing out town reads is scummy.

Faraday makes me nervous overall though. I could see plenty of stuff he's saying coming from a townie PoV but at the same time he manages to do plenty of scummy stuff (Not providing reasoning, just throwing out arguments and pretending they're crap etc.) Overall I get an uneasy and scummy read from him and I'm definitely going to keep a closer eye on him.

The whole town reads issue was one of the things that Elscouta had against Faraday. Cool, seems like DB will side with Els, and he finds Faraday scummy anyway. Oh, hold on...

Anyway, I'd rather vote Elscouta than Faraday, Enigma, etc. right now but I don't want the day to end so early so I'll just keep my vote here for the time being. I agree with Hinduragi, its not much of an argument if you aren't even supporting it.

Okay. So he wants to vote for the person the rest of town is voting for because...uh. The big "debate" has Elscouta vs Faraday's, with Elscouta saying town-reads are scummy. Hmm, seems like a bit out of the blue that he'd side with Faraday. But then DB finally grows a pair, and conveniently stays off the mislynch with this;

How bout now?

Unvote, Vote: Faraday

[...]I did think you're scummy however, now you are standing out more to me. Even more so now due to your lack of explanations.

But in this vote, he doesn't mention "confirmed townies" at all as a reason for this vote (why not?). Looks to me like DB was very careful to stay off the Els wagon, and the same can be said of his earlier SocioPath vote. Both the Faraday and the SP votes have been because of their playstyle (as far as I can see), which makes it look like he's scumhunting...but the playstyle ain't gonna change. Convenient placeholders for his vote, I reckon.

Vote: Doombunny9

---

Andrius

I don't actually mean to crumb half the time I do. See Harry Potter Mafia for fail-crumbing.
AND WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT THIS ANYMORE. SSHH.

Given Andrius' actions today, I think he is fully aware that he was crumbing. If he doesn't want to talk about it, why go to the trouble of hinting at it so blatantly today? He's my #2. I reckon he

does

have whatever power he's crumbing, but he has it in the hands of scum and is over-eager to tell us what it is because he thinks he'll get townpoints for it.

---

RE: the sub claiming issue
If no one has claimed it, then someone is lying. And if someone is lying, when the time comes to claim, we can use the information we gained during DEFCON 4 to find out who. Looks like it wasn't such a pointless discussion after all.

[AurorusVox]

@RedCoyote

If no one has claimed it, then someone is lying. And if someone is lying, when the time comes to claim, we can use the information we gained during DEFCON 4 to find out who.

I don't understand what you mean. Do you mean by process of elimination through flips?

What I mean is, if the person with the sub lies about what they got, we can see, through analysing who got what preference, whether or not their supposed ability fits in with everyone else. I.e. if they claim something as a "first choice" that someone else had been awarded despite it being their second choice, or vice versa, etc.

Also I think your Doombunny case has merit, but I don't think the Andrius thing will go anywhere. Unless you can sell me on a reason why Andrius' mistakes/crumbing are more suspicious than they are overeagerness?

Oh no, I do think he's overeager, but overeager with a scum agenda. He made it quite clear yesterday that he didn't want to discuss his role anymore, and yet today, he gave a huge indication of what ability he's got. The two don't add up, unless he doesn't

really

want to avoid discussing his role. Outing himself on a "gut read" is poor townie-PR play, especially since - as SpyreX has pointed out - none of them can point conclusively to scum at this stage.

---

@Doombunny9

"So what"? Your words and actions don't match up. Your own arguments point to Faraday being the most suspect, but then you say you'd rather vote for Elscouta, and keep your vote on SocioPath. Once Elscouta gets to L-1, you switch your vote to Faraday. Your play is inconsistent, and I treat inconsistency as a scumtell.

As for "lol'ing" at my reasoning: If you're scum, you'd have known that Elscouta was a mislynch, and would have been more wary of hammering him because you wouldn't want to risk drawing the attention of being the one to hammer the townie.

In any case: what do you hope to achieve through your vote for SocioPath? Do you think that his style of play alone is enough to warrant his lynching? Or do you think that sufficient pressure will encourage him to change his style?

[AurorusVox]

Since massclaim seems to be on the agenda at the moment, and since I may or may not have accidentally put the idea in peoples' minds earlier, I want to respond to this post:

This is borderline, AV. Maybe later in the game, much later in the game, but you're talking about, essentially, posting your entire list of choices (up to and including the sub choice).

I wasn't initially suggesting we did it today (I'd have said save it for LYLO or counter-claims) but I've had a while to think about it, and having read some of the other posts on the matter, I don't really think it'd work now or later. All the sub-scum will do is claim they got their ability as their first preference, and we'd help scum more than town.

---

The Enigma-Andrius/Hydra exchange is interesting. Not quite sure what to make of it; I think Andrius was in the wrong, but I'm getting a small but decidedly bad vibe from Enigma. Almost as though he's not angry at being mistakenly outed as scum, but angry at being outed by a PR making a mistake. They're both under a cloud of "unsure" at the moment for me.

---

I'm still happy with my Doomsbunny vote. I've just finished a scumgame with Hindu so I'll ISO him and see if there's anything that pushes me either way. On that note:

So I'm scum because I ignored your case on Hindu? Even though I said that it was one of the few posts I actually liked?

So what do you make of Hindu?

[AurorusVox]

I'm TRYING here.

It should be pretty clear I'm not letting this drop.

So if I'm gonna go bigger picture I need some help. The easy way doesn't work so use the MYSTIC POWER OF ROPOS to get him to do what has to be done.

I agree that we shouldn't be have to worry about theorising Andrius'* role through Enigma's speculation, and that it certainly does need clearing up at some point. I understand that if he doesn't say it now, he'll be able to change his story later, which is bad, and defuses some of the pressure he's under; I also understand that he's given you reasons to suspect him and you want them answered. BUT if he changes his story later it will still need to mesh with what he's said and done earlier; and the suspicious acts will be equally suspicious later down the line. So it's not the end of the world if he holds off fully claiming while we look at other things.

[AurorusVox]

*I was meant to include a footnote saying that I can't remember the Hydra's name but assume I'm referring to both of you if the context makes sense ><"

[AurorusVox]

Hmm...

The "post 18" thing doesn't make any sense at all, so I'm certain the message itself fake. I'm also not sure why any scum would withold their role from their buddies.

The "faking names" thing is so easy to do that it makes me think that they

won't

hide their names. If a post "drops" then they'll know we'll immediately suspect that it's a frame. So I would use real scum names when talking to prevent "framing" actually being true. Zhero's reaction almost seems as though it was pre-meditated to point out how it's "obviously" a frame.

Problem with this is that the "faking names" thing is so easy to do that they may have just stopped there, and since it does look like an obvious frame, in a WIFOMless world, I'd agree with what Zhero was saying.


...WIFOMs a bitch.

---

I don't think Calcifandrius' reactionfishing was scummy, if that

was

what he was doing. I do wonder if he did it to allow him to push for a Zhero lynch, but then backtracked. On the other hand I wonder also if they're both scum and Calcrifandrius was doing something nasty to his partner to future reference if either of them get lynched.

---

Doombunny's latest posts have sounded townish to me.

Unvote

---

I've been re-reading and I don't like how Calcifer voted for Hindu, then changed to Zhero, then when RC voted for Hindu, he switched his vote back Hindu, claiming Hindu was his top suspect since his wall-o-text. But the wall-o-text was before his Zhero vote, and Zhero didn't post at all between the two votes - so (1) why did he vote for Zhero, and more significantly, (2) why did he unvote Zhero?

(1) The Zhero vote followed Zhero voting for Calcifer and Enigma voting for Zhero. With the Zhero vote from Enigma, a potential bandwagon opportunity presented itself.
(2) RC had previously been voting for Calcifer. RC voted for Hindu. Calcifer said a wagon on Hindu would be a "swell idea" - to stop RC switching his vote back to him? I'm not liking it.

Vote: Calcifer

[AurorusVox]

I dunno, I think I'm with SpyreX on this one. I mean, he didn't have to tunnel it so hard but it needed clearing up. Andy basically said "I'm voting - I have role related information" which sure as hell made it look like he'd caught scum at night. Which was impossible. Which is why it needed clearing up. If he'd just said it was gut from the start, this whole thing would have been avoided. The reaction probing argument obviously relies on claiming to have role-related information, but that's a dangerous game to be playing this early on, and Andy should have been prepared to face the consequences of being caught out in a lie. To me, it looks like overzealous play not thought through, or scum trying to push a mislynch, not thought through.

Though, re-reading the posts in question, Andy never actually said that he had caught scum. His "role related information" comment could feasibly have been referencing "a gut read from a suspicious result" rather than a scum-find. But he also made no indication of it being due to a gut read until after SpyreX had pointed out he couldn't have caught confirmed scum. I'm gonna stick to my vote for now.

Also, Calc, why did you fight so hard against fullclaiming when Enigma had already outed what your role was way back when?

---

If Spyre keeps up with what he's been doing I wouldn't mind switching to her if its near deadline and socio isn't getting lynched.

What element of SpyreX's actions do you find the most scummy?

---

@Hindu

: All that text, but still no vote? Who is your top suspect and why aren't you voting for them?

[AurorusVox]

EBWOP: Wait, do you count "fullclaiming" as claiming+results? I only meant it in terms of claiming your role out in the open xD

[AurorusVox]

Tomorrow I finally get full access to the internet again!!

---

I've been reading along on my mobile (much to the detriment of my phonebill) so I've had a kind of outsider's perspective on this whole affair, and either way it's worrying. We're getting far to close to the deadline without a clear lynch candidate. More on this later...

The Calcifer Case

How I read it now: Perhaps there's something else at work. It was as SpyreX said, a botched attempt to claim a cop guilty, and Calcifer doesn't know who Enigma targeted, so if he claims radar and his target doesn't match up with Enigma's, he's lynched scum. If he claims espionage and gets CC'd, then he's dead.

I think it's even more subtle than that. I think Calcifer *does* have the radar (in fact, with the lack of CCs he almost certainly does). But I think he could be scum who opted to block town from getting the radar. This added element ought to affect your later post:

Enigma's confirmation (I guess since he's not voting Calcifer) of Calcifer's target means I feel much more comfortable about things. It's clearly not what SpyreX originally suggested (a scummy attempt to draw out the cop), and I for one am willing to let the matter rest.

Calcifer knowing Enigma's target does not make him any less suspicious at all. There is no reason for scum to lie about who visited who; in fact, telling the truth "reluctantly" might just garner enough town points to dismiss earlier concerns - exactly as it played out here.

So now retroactively popping back to this part:

I will hammer Calcifer if he's put to L-1 and continues to refuse to claim.

Would you still hammer Calcifer now?

---

The Enigma Case

Guys, we've got less than a week until we have to lynch somebody. We can waste that time on more claiming and setup speculation, or we can scumhunt.

This a thousand times. And - who has willingly made that much harder than it need be?

Gee fucking Gee

Enigma, having seen how the Calcifer affair played out, has now done the EXACT same thing, but rather than doing it at the start of the day, he's done it very close to the end. To me this smacks of scum opportunistically bungling town's lynch capacity, or trying to rush a mislynch near deadline.

Also, I'm willing to trust Enigma at this point. I don't think scum would try to claim cop at this point when they could easily just wait until it would be more important for them to do so. Also, even if it were a ML we would still have caught Enigma-scum tomorrow. Either way we have scum.

Uh, back up right there Doom. Let's look at what Enigma has said.

Percy, I received a

result

which I believe is quite likely to be incriminating. Do you have an idea why that might be?

The wording of this has left plenty of wiggle room for Enigma to avoid getting lynched tomorrow. He hasn't said "He is confirmed scum" he has said he

believes

* it to be

quite likely

** to be

incriminating

***

How careful Enigma has been to avoid saying anything absolute! The ONLY ability that he could have that would lead to something incriminating would go further, and give him an absolute indication. And yet he's been careful to dance around it. He's also been careful to not claim that role, because he knows that claiming that role backs him into a corner. And scums hate dem corners.

*"Belief" does not equal fact - he can say he was just mistaken
**"Quite" likely, not even "very" likely. Far from certain.
***"Incriminating" instead of "guilty" or "scum"? Incriminating just means leading to more suspicions.

Doom, operating under the assumption of mislynching Percy and autolynching Enigma is flawed. Put another way, would you have been willing to lynch Enigma today and if he flips legit get Percy tomorrow? Look again at how Enigma has worded himself - look at his lack of vote at the start of the day - it is far from certain that he caught scum, and yet you're operating under the assumption that he is claiming that he has. He's left enough distance from the result and the vote to have to take full responsibility for it.

Let me restate: The only role that Enigma can have that would be incriminating would be FULLY incriminating. And yet Enigma's words have him as "likely", as "believing". This isn't a townie PR with a result; this is a scum PR with a result. And so;

Vote: Enigma

Enigma: if I'm reading too much into your words, tell me. Come out, fully, and tell me that you HAVE, 100%, caught scum, and I'll listen.

---

I don't understand. Why didn't you autovote him at the start of D2 then?

Are all investigative roles supposed to claim on Day 2? I must have missed that memo.

I must have missed the memo where votes were the same as claims.

Fuck, I think I just figured it out.

If it's what I'm thinking, Enigma, then I am going to be fucking speechless.

Does "what you're thinking" make Engima more likely scum or more likely town? Share your thoughts: we can't have two "tee-hee" dances going on at once, or SpyreX will have a heart attack.

---

Now, this vote does not lessen my Calcifer suspicions. Considering that the Enigma vs Calcifer ended early into D2 (with Enigma saying Andy was townie, no less) I'm still considering the possibility that Calci and Enigma had a plan that backfired a little. I am interested in either of their lynches, but I accept that just one being scum is probably more likely than both being scum.

Ninja Edit: Oh, looks like Socio has just responded to Zhero on this very point.

Socio: Do you think that Radar is useless for town? Do you think scum have no use for it?
Zhero: Why would Calci claiming to have tracked Enigma be "outing" his partner?

[AurorusVox]

Socio: Do you think that Radar is useless for town? Do you think scum have no use for it?

That is not what I was getting at, at all.
YES RADAR IS USEFUL.

But the fact is: WHO IN FUCKS SAKE WOULD BUS THERE PARTNER THIS EARLY ON SOMETHING THAT ISNT A KILL?
The only auto-assumed track that would lead to a bussing (ESPECIALLY THIS EARLY) would be claiming you tracked a person to the kill: woohoo, you 'outted' your partner, you buy town creds, and ride the game.

BUT THIS EARLY ON SOMETHING -NOT- A KILL?
HOW IS SCUM PARTNER OUTTED AGAIN?!
THIS I DO NOT KNOW.

That's what I was getting at. He isn't outing his scum partner, he isn't bussing - so Calci claiming to have tracked Enigma, with a null result, could be a useful distancing tactic.

[AurorusVox]

Re: Enigma

I don't get why Defensive Troops would automatically make you presume someone had picked sub (and had lied)? That's why I jumped on your wording before. It explains your hesitance, but it doesn't explain why you put your vote down and let people assume you'd caught scum.

Re: Percy

My first reaction is that most of the "dropped" posts seem too helpful to be legitimate. That said, all posts would probably be helpful if intercepted. It seems a lot of effort to go to, to fake, but it could be faked if Percy was playing for great justice. If scum are spamming messages, Percy should have gotten some through (5% would have about 80 posts, and surely some of those would be the spammed ones?) but I'm suspicious enough of Enigma and Doomsbunny to see Percy as legit. I think the changing encryption is null, possibly slight tell for legitimacy for Percy (why would he fake multiple encryptions?); it looks like (a) they start with an easy one to get to a hard one and then (b) the hard one was too hard so they went back to the old one. It also makes me wonder if the un-coded one really was Zhero, and that relates to the dropped message earlier.

More tomorrow, I have to go now.

[AurorusVox]

I've never received a message more than once. And the during-the-day messages are 10% public drop, 30% private drop. If the scum did it one-at-a-time, there's a 7% chance that the message would drop publicly but not privately, 3% chance it would drop to both, and 27% chance it would go to me and not be made public.

Oh, herp, there's not been any night phase for that to drop to the 5%. I was going to conclude that there's been about 20 messages since DEFCON 3, which I'm not sure how to interpret - but then I realised that chasing the numbers becomes pointless until we get a large enough number of posts to see it average out at 30%.

The threefer received minutes apart all of it. It just smells wrong.

I assume that the times don't mean that all three messages were minutes apart. I assume that AGM got online, ran the percentages, and posted each message off as they dropped. Unless those times are stated as the times that the messages were posted (Percy?), I don't think we can conclude much from them. Otherwise you would have to get into time zones and online times and all sorts of meta/mechanics debate.

That said, I could go for a Percy-lynch-to-see-what-happens just to confirm the messages. Not to mention that eavesdropper would be the perfect ability for the SK, imo. But, it's a difficult call to make, and I'd

rather

see how this plays out without lynching Percy.

[AurorusVox]

(This is far from pressing but since it's out there I figured I'd answer)

THEN WHY ARE YOU WASTING MY TIME?!

Because you said you thought a Calci-Enigma scumteam was "demented", and I think there could be scope for a legitimate distancing tactic between them. Not sure how to read it all in light of the Percy shenanigan though.

[AurorusVox]

I've noticed that Percy tells us that "The fourth and fifth messages were received during the night," failing to mention the third message until later on when he reveals that the message came to him after the Elscouta hammer (and so I presume "during the night")
(1) Why not say "the third, fourth and fifth messages were received during the night"? Could be inconsistency, backtracking, ducking and weaving; BUT
(2) Why fake the Elscouta message as coming AFTER the hammer? If he was faking, he'd have said it came beforehand for piling on more suspicion. Unless he's just poured a nice glass of red and placed it on the table.

I'm with RC, I'll wait to say any more on the matter 'til everyone's had their piece (I think we're just waiting on Zhero and Hindu now).

[AurorusVox]

If townPercy is never NK'd, then that makes talking in the QT dangerous for the scum, which isn't bad. BUT (and I know I said I'd leave it but this thought occurred to me last night)...

(2) Why fake the Elscouta message as coming AFTER the hammer?

I was thinking about this, and I have come up with a very good reason why scum (or SK) Percy MIGHT have been backtracking and faking an Elscouta message coming post-hammer on this after all...

(a) He starts off trying to throw suspicion onto the people who hadn't hammered Elscouta, hence not mentioning that the message came post-hammer.
(b) He then realises that

he

was voting for Elscouta at the time. If he sticks to the story that the message came pre-hammer, he'd have had to unvote and/or try to slow down the Elscouta mislynch.

I can now see a very good reason for Percy to lie and to backtrack, so I'm unsure whether I still believe him. Either it was something he only realised later, or it's an unfortunate accident of timing. In any case, I could get behind an Enigma, Doomsbunny9 or Percy lynch.

[AurorusVox]

Hey, AGM, Doombunny is currently voting for Enigma ^^

I can still get on board with a Doombunny lynch. I've explained why I found his D1 play suspicious, Percy's message could be talking about him (especially considering how he danced around hammering Elscouta late D1).

Vote: Dommbunny9

Enigma: I find it interesting that you voted for DB all of D1, but have barely mentioned him today.

(Fixed, thanks. --AGM)

[AurorusVox]

Enigma;

Enigma: I find it interesting that you voted for DB all of D1, but have barely mentioned him today.

Any comment on this observation? I also find it interesting how you're already preparing your reasons for keeping your Percy case going through a DB scumflip with your above post. Do you already know DB's alignment?

[AurorusVox]

Nice tactic putting the onus of the hammer vote on me~

[AurorusVox]

Not at all, just piques that eternal interest of mine.

[AurorusVox]

Are you flirting with me?

(I think I like it)

It's MY (<-keyword) Percy case, not yours. So I will keep it alive as long as I still continue to find him scummy, which is not for you to decide. Kthx.

Anyway, I wasn't trying to "decide" when it was okay to drop the Percy case; I mean, even if that was what I was trying to do, I've found plenty in Percy's claim that looks suspicious, so I have no problem at all with you finding him scummy. I was more interested in how you were

already

playing with the assumption of a DB scumflip, which - as far as I could see from your votes - you had abandoned during D2.

I want to get something clear before the flip: did you hammer him because you would rather mislynch a townie than have a no lynch; or did you hammer him because you think he's scum?

[AurorusVox]

I want to get something clear before the flip: did you hammer him because you would rather mislynch a townie than have a no lynch; or did you hammer him because you think he's scum?

^Enigma

This playing hard to get thing is really working.

[AurorusVox]

Or depending on whether or not you have gotten your story straight yet?

[AurorusVox]

That's what I'm trying to establish. Why won't you say whether you think Doombunny is scum or not?

[AurorusVox]

T~T

Hinduuuuuuuuuuuu!!!!

[AurorusVox]

I picked a scummy power to stop scum getting it...but scum didn't even want it >:(

[AurorusVox]

D: Is there a pre-encoded mafia QT? Or do I really have to go through and decode it all just to read it T~T

I loved the flavour, it was the first proper theme game that I've played and it was AWESOME and now I feel I will never play non-themes evar again.

I was suspicious of Hindu when he made it to LYLO :'( Evil man!
RC's catchup post looked incredibly townie but there were a few things that pinged on the way through. Me and Enigma butted heads but in a good way I hope xD Generally a really fun game, and I'm kinda sad I picked AirBase when no one else was bothered for it. I could have had a nuke damnit - not that I'd have gotten to fire it cos you all killed me QQ

Poor Doombunny being SK and not getting to kill anyone </3

[AurorusVox]

...It's things like this that are the reasons why you will die if I'm scum. =|

Unless we're scum together <3