Open 249: Mayo Clinic **Game Over!**

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

vote: scott brosius

for being my random vote last game, and saving the town last game. Hi everyone who was in last mayo round

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

So umm... why is there a gandalf wagon?

Nothing was happening, so people wanted to start a wagon to get discussion going. I'm going to:

unvote, vote:antihero

why does it matter whether or not jesse votes?

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

@Scott: Oh are you protecting muthaa's lack of wanting to place a vote?

Jesse at least explained why they didn't

, muthaa has yet to.

Really? And where did he do this?
UNVOTE: nopointinactingup
VOTE: Katsuki

Nothing was happening, so people wanted to start a wagon to get discussion going. I'm going to:
unvote, vote:antihero

why does it matter whether or not jesse votes?

Chainsaw defense, much? What I say to warrant a vote?

Jesse said that he usually doesn't rvs vote somewhere. also, I voted you because my previous random vote was not doing anything, so I decided to change it. Probably won't stick long, but I'll leave it for now.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

hmm, well, looking over the game, it seems like muthaa doesn't have much to say about anything about either wagon. as for jesse, while i haven't agreed with some of what she said, it is playstyle so far, so i won't vote her, but i'd like to see more from you on your opinions of people. also, gandalf, i don't see why you listened to shotty and changed your vote when he said so. any particualr reason you listened to him?

unvote, vote muthaa

If I had to pick out players who I think are most likely to be scum I'd say you, Phaen. Town players don't normally seek out reasons for players to be scum. That's something scum do because they can't actually pick out other players to be scum, because they're the scum.

Oh, and i dont get this post at all. you're saying that its scummy to show reasons why people are likely scum?

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Alrighty, so, looking things over, I still like my vote on Muthaa. I know at one point i think i suspected anti-hero, but he's fine in my books at the moment.

Someone else I'm looking at now is Gandalf, who has only voted Jesse (and unvoted next post). He's given little information on who he thinks is scum which, at this point, he should have at least one suspect. I'd like to see more from you.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

So, looking this thread over, I'll

confirm vote: Muthaa

just cause. I like where the wagon is going, think we got scum with it. also, I would support a gandalf wagon for his play, but that will just have to happen tomorrow, since the Muthaa wagon is larger.

also something to not is that Gandalf and Muthaa have not voted each other at all, and to the best of my knowledge have had little interaction.



Finally, does everything think that massclaim would be a good idea or not? I know its out of the blue, but last game (a day or two in) when we massclaimed, it allowed for the Vigilantes to survive through protection and so town not only had a kill at night but a confirmed town. The downside to this is that scum would know exactly who is available to be killed, and so each night there will be deaths. Opinions?

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

V/LA till monday. agree with massclaim, not sure about detailing a protection plan.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

P-EDIT: HOLD THE MASSCLAIM UNTIL I GET HERE. I WANT TO GET MY ANALYSIS OFF BEFORE ANY CLAIMING OCCURS.

I assume you're all set now? Can we see the analysis?

So are you planning on claiming before you go on V/LA smashbro? And is that really all you have to say?

Yeah. I'm back now, and I see no one has claimed anyway (aside from warrior). That's all I had time to say.



If we lynch someone today, it can be either town or scum.

town lynch = 2 vigs, 3 scum, 2 town.
---------assume 1 town dies, we need to kill at least 1 scum. assuming 1 to 1 === 2 vigs, 2 scum, 1 town. we (hopefully) win
---------if both vigs shoot, one hits town, other hits scum, and scum hit town, then 2 vig 2 scum, we lose.
---------if 1 vig shoots town, and scum shoot town, then 3 to 2 we lose.
scum lynch = 2 vigs 2 scum, 3 town.
---------Assume 1 town dies from scum, if we both hit town, then we lose.
---------if we don't do anything it's 2 vig 2 scum 2 town.
---------If we get 1 scum and scum kills 1 town at night, then it becomes 2 vigs 1 scum 2 town, and we win.
---------if there are 2 deaths, both town, then it becomes 2 vigs, 2 scum, 1 town.

what's the point of this random math and night speculation? It's pretty much always better if we only have one vig shoot, and still keep the other one alive for confirmed town purposes. That being said, It might be best to, at the end of the day, set up pools of people, saying all of you protect vig #1, the rest of you protect vig #2. There will be a doctor in each setup, and if a vig does die, then anyone who was supposed to protect him was scum.

I need to get to class now, but I'll be back later with a post, will include who I suspect.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Alrighty, I'm the other vig, killed gandalf.

If I had to pick out players who I think are most likely to be scum I'd say you, Phaen. Town players don't normally seek out reasons for players to be scum. That's something scum do because they can't actually pick out other players to be scum, because they're the scum.

I know this backtracks a bit, but I don't see why you didn't vote for Phaen at this point. People should vote for who they think is scum, yet you hold your vote back. Why?

I assume others will understand why?

Scum will know who is/isn't protected but it also confirms scum if someone who was supposed to be protected dies.

not entirely, no.

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Something about Scott's play in this game has thrown me off, not sure why though. I can't find anything especially scummy about him, but I'd like to see more out of him. Also going to look at katsuki, I'll have to go back and ISO again, there were a few quotes I found odd.

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Also, anyone have any insight on why Nopoint was killed? I don't see any particular reason, since he wasn't especially active town, but he does vote for jesse, katsuki, and muthaa through the day.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

sorry bout not posting, haven't been online for a while. I don't have time for a big post now, but my views in a nutshell are jesse as town, scott and kat as mafia, hacker, antihereo, and phaen as neutral. if pushed on the neutrals, I'd say Phaen as town, and not sure about the other two. Will give some reasons for these tomorrow night, when i have more time.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Ok, so. As for Hacker, he seems to be trying to help out town, but I still read him as neutral because I don't think him to be confirmed town to me. If my other reads turn out wrong (based on the flip at the end of the day, I can see him as scum, but as for now, I like his contribution.

As for scott, I just think the way he's been playing has been scummy compared to what else I've seen from him. He tended to keep his vote away from the popular wagons of the time, ending up leaving it on gandalf when close to deadline, despite saying that he wasn't sure to put a vote on shotty or muthaa. this was very close to deadline, i don't see why he would not vote muthaa for the time being, if they were his top two.

vote: scott

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

alright, prodded, but i don't have too much more to say. Scott's posts have seemed alright, but not enough to take my vote off of him yet. Kat's suggestion of Phaen being scummy is interesting, since Kat didn't move a vote. It is true that kat seems to prefer a Hacker lynch, but isn't doing much to push why he believes that hacker is scum.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

I see what you're saying in your last posts kat. What I was getting at was how you aren't constructing a full case saying this this and this is what he did was scummy, you should vote him. your posts have seemed to say Hacker's last post is scummy. let's vote him. if you believe him to be scum, you should present all of the evidence in one post, and ask people's opinion of it.


also, warrior, we should really think about stacking our kills. right now we have 2v 3t 3m.
-----assuming town lynch today, it is 2v 2t 3m. scum kills town, 2v 1t 3m and we both need to hit scum for it to work, or we can stack our shots, and we need to his scum with that. shooting alone and hitting 1 scum (other hits 1 protected) means that its 2v 1t 2m. However if someone is protected besides us, they were protected by the mafia doc, and therefore mafia. We lynch them, and at night its 2v 1t 1m, we win.
-----assuming scum lynch, its 2v 3t 2m. scum kills town, 2v 2t 2m. we both hit town, lose. we hit 1 scum 1 town, and its 2v 1t 1m, we win. We both hit scum, we win. we stack our kills and hit town, its 2v 1t 2m. we stack and hit scum, its 2v 2t 1m.


Now, there are other cases, if we hit the same person, or if we kill the same person as mafia do. but now i'm leaning toward not stacking our kills. your opinion? well, anyone's opinion too, but mostly warrior. If someone other than us lives because of protection, then they are mafia

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

alrighty, first off, warriormode, i completely agree with you on stacking/no stacking based off of if we lynch scum. had an ephi..epiph..yeah. that thing today.

also, i don't exactly remember where the scott wagon dissappeared to, but

unvote

. I still think he is scum. Scott, if you think esurio/Phaen is scum, then why are you agreeing with who that slot believes is scum? Wouldn't it make sense that a member of the scum team (esurio) would

not

bring up a wagon on another member of the scum team(antihero), when esurio could have just as easily said Hacker (one of the wagons) was the top read, and continued that wagon?

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Hacker is at L-1. Only people that can hammer are Me, Smashbro, and Scott. I want to hear smashbros thoughts before I hammer. Mainly about our killing and protection schemes.

About our killing, I agree that if the person comes up as scum, we stack, if town, then we don't.

as for protection scheme, what do you say we split the group 50/50, and one half protect you, and the other protect me. That way, even though the scum will know that we can die, if either of us does die, then none of the people supposedly protecting us are doctors, therefore, they are mafia, and we have 2 or 3 guaranteed scum. If they don't shoot us, then it doesn't confirm people, but it still keeps us alive.

I haven't done all of the math yet, but i don't think that leads to an autolose situation (not counting bad shooting on our part).

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Antihero
Katsuki
warriormode
smashbro_of_the_SSS

these are the 4 left after the end of the day. As confirmed town, smashbro and warriormode vote for one of the other two, and antihero and katsuki vote for smashbro.

tie vote, no majority, no lynch.

at night, smashbro kills kat
warrior kills antihero
scum team shoots smashbro

warrior is left alive to win the game for town.

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Does this make sense?

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

I want to say that, based off of that, town should have won. I'm going back to look at the win conds to check.