Mafia on Holy Orders (Game Over!)

[curiouskarmadog]

X-axes are post numbers, Y-axes is total number of votes. Each color represents a different person.

so much work on graphs, so little work on answering questions.

what your graphs dont show, is my questioning I asked at the end of the day and your late arrival to the wagon...I would have revoted him, but I had signed off for the day and wanted him to answer my questions to be sure. Speaking of counter wagons, where was your vote for most of the day while the moth wagon was gaining steam(hint I know the answer to the question)?

do you think graphs are good ways to catch scum? have you ever used graphs before (as scum)? Given your voting history yesterday do you think you look scummy? Can you please redo the graph with your voting pattern.

[Plum]

????????

CKD. I'm afraid you may have just learned all the townpoints you earned back after your predecessor's performance.

[Iecerint]

And each chart is a separate player's wagon?

Teach me how you're reading it. I can't get much out of it.

[Vi]

Vote Count XXIV

~ The MoHO party never stops!

pacman (L-4) ~ Friend, Furcolow, Plum

Furcolow (L-6) ~ vezokpiraka,

pacman

vezokpiraka (L-7) ~

Furcolow

Not Voting:

AGar, Chronopie, Me=Weird,

Friend, Furcolow,

Iecerint, Locke Lamora,

pacman, Plum,

curiouskarmadog, SocioPath, Socrates,

vezokpiraka,

pacman

AGar 0 | Chronopie 0 PROD1 3 | Me= 2 | Friend 0 | Furc 0 | Iece 0 | Locke 1 | pacman 0 | Plum 0 PROD1 10 | ckd 0 | Socio 1 | Socrates 0 | vezo 0

-A warm light shines from Socrates as of post 1042...

-I changed one of the flips slightly.

--With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Battery power:

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(98%)

[Iecerint]

Looks like she added a different color of red?

[pacman281292]

@MOD: I unvoted furcolow. Thnx.

What, I have to read the topic now too? ~Vi

Well, regrouped my mind already. Sorry ofr acting like a moron.
Reasons for my surprising flip flop: My "theory" of vezo and furc being both scum is just impossible. *slaps self* So, we have 2 cases left:
1) Both them are VItown, of a really moronic type.
2) One of them is scum, and the other one is town.
If 1, well, furcolow is town then. If 2, then analyzing the vote posts, I realized that vezok would most likely be lazy scum trying to get off with a "half-assed" vote, while furc at least tried to make a case on vezok. Tis whole interaction, in brief, put vezok higher in my scum list than furcolow (vezo was already high there...). Therefore, as one of them is town, then I decided furc had to be town. I unvoted then.
I left vezok for later. He could still be anything. That's why I did just unvote furc, instead of voting vezo inmediately.
Soc's graph seems a good way of brief the voting patterns. However, he should have answered questions on him as well. A graph =/= god. Your work is appreciated, but we (or at least I) would like to hear some thoughts or gainings on it. As well as answers to questionings.

I'm gonna make a reread on mothrax, then I will be casting my vote. I'll most likely be voting vezok (due to this whole vezo vs furc stuff), but it might change pending on reread.

[Me=Weird]

Yay I was right about mothrax!!! Can we lynch vezo now? He's produced approx. 0 content, whenever he isn't on the biggest bandwagon, he moves to the biggest one, if nothing else he's a deadweight to town that would destroy us in LyLo.

Vote: vezokpiraka

I'm against a mass-claim unless there's one really good reason. I don't really see the pacman case.
Advance notice of

V/LA Saturday-Monday

[Socrates]

And each chart is a separate player's wagon?

Teach me how you're reading it. I can't get much out of it.

They are simply time-lines of what I consider the three major wagons of day 2: Furc, Pacman, and Mothrax.

Each post number is a post where someone hopped on or off of one of the wagons, and the colored area represents a player staying on the wagon over time.

Lets take a look at your space on the wagon:


(The images seem to be shrunk to a fixed width, so click on the image for something slightly bigger.)

You hopped on at 888, and hopped off at 974. in the interveneing time, M=W jumped on (the light orange right above Agar) as did Furcolow (The dark Grey).

You jumped back on at post 997 right before Chronopie's hammer.

Does that make it easier to parse the image?

Here is a larger version of all three charts together: http://a.imageshack.us/img688/800/alltogether.jpg

I already shared what I immediately saw in the post where I originally posted the charts. I have some more to say, but first I have to respond to CKD.

[Iecerint]

OK, so you can use it to see who came late, left, and so on if you check player-at-a-time.

Larger image is extremely wonderful.

[Socrates]

You jumped back on at post 997* right before Chronopie's hammer.

Typo: That should read 1007.

[Iecerint]

I think there was some mothrax stuff D1, too, so....

[Socrates]

X-axes are post numbers, Y-axes is total number of votes. Each color represents a different person.

so much work on graphs, so little work on answering questions.

what your graphs dont show, is my questioning I asked at the end of the day and your late arrival to the wagon...I would have revoted him, but I had signed off for the day and wanted him to answer my questions to be sure. Speaking of counter wagons, where was your vote for most of the day while the moth wagon was gaining steam(hint I know the answer to the question)?

do you think graphs are good ways to catch scum? have you ever used graphs before (as scum)? Given your voting history yesterday do you think you look scummy? Can you please redo the graph with your voting pattern.

I don't care that you would have revoted him. The point is that you unvoted in the first place. Your questioning only came

after

you left the Mothrax wagon and jumped on and off the Pacman wagon. Pray tell, why did you vote Pacman in post 981? As far as I can tell, it mostly came out of nowhere.

Yes, I was on the pacman wagon. Your point?

I like charts. I have used the charts before, but this was the first time I bothered sharing them (the previous times were trial runs, so to speak.). I don't think my voting history is either scummy or pro-town. Do you remember the context of my voting history yesterday? What do you mean, redo the graph with my voting pattern?

[Socrates]

Plum, The chances of pacman and CKD being scumbuddies are pretty small in my opinion, and right now I think I am feeling a CKD wagon more than a pacman wagon. And yes, I might, in fact, have some POWERFUL WIZARDRY with respect to a massclaim.

vote: CKD

[Iecerint]

Probably his point is that you left yourself off your graph, which keeps it from being a totes objective view of what happened.

Unvoting investi-PRs to evaluate shit is pretty normative IMO. Not that it's not likely that 1 one of us might be scum, if just via background probabilities.

I doubt CKD is scum (less than background probability). He knew I'd follow him to mothrax cuz I proxy'd, so it'd be a pretty ballsy wagonpush. But ye know.

[Socrates]

I think there was some mothrax stuff D1, too, so....

Yea, but I don't have to time to go and collect that data.

Anyway, back to the charts.

I realize that I didn't explain why I declared Furc town. Day 2 started off with wagons immediately appearing on both Mothrax and Furcolow, and if both were scum I would expect at least some of the scum to push some third option other than the two of them (I recognize that scum like to bus, but I don't think the entire scum team would bus in unison.) Furthermore, Mothrax threw his vote down on Furcolow during this initial boost and he left it there for the entire day, never really looking for an excuse to move it (if I remember correctly). Furcolow himself hopped on and off of the Mothrax wagon something like 4 times, showing an inclination to wagon him over other targets.

The pacman wagon is harder to parse. It started growing during a time that the Mothrax wagon was all but dead, so there wouldn't be much reason for scum to push such a wagon over others other than for convenience. The only person to jump on the pacman wagon was Furcolow (which gives me some pause on him.) and CKD's psych-out vote in post 981.

Ehhhh. Why wasn't the Pacman wagon pushed harder as the Mothrax wagon grew? The easiest and most obvious answer is because Pacman himself was scum.

The only common players on the pacman and Moth wagons were Friend and Furcolow.

The most questionable presence on this wagon is Vezo, who joined at it's outset, but as soon as it started to grow, jumped off claiming the wagon had stalled, then jumps back on 55 posts later. ++scum points

I'm getting kinda burned out on this. I'll think some more later.

[Socrates]

Probably his point is that you left yourself off your graph, which keeps it from being a totes objective view of what happened.

Unvoting investi-PRs to evaluate shit is pretty normative IMO. Not that it's not likely that 1 one of us might be scum, if just via background probabilities.

I doubt CKD is scum (less than background probability). He knew I'd follow him to mothrax cuz I proxy'd, so it'd be a pretty ballsy wagonpush. But ye know.

But I did include myself? I am the light grey, labeled "me".

Ehhhh... I don't know how normative it is to unvote the claimed power role before you have evaluated the claim. Maybe unvoting from L-1 to avoid a hammer, but just that. And besides, the problem I have has more to do with the fact that his first inclination was to vote pacman.

Your second point does speak to me, though.

unvote

, while I consider.

[Iecerint]

Oh, I missed it. Was looking for "Soc." I dunno what he was talking about, then; he should explain.

Yeah, you're probably right on the other, too; a mass unvote is excessive. I sort of forgot to think about it that way because I was the first (off of L-1) unvote.

CKD's unvote had more going on, though -- if you look back, it was like "unvote; vote: pm I guess...HEY WAIT A SECOND unvote: pm NOW I WILL INTERROGATE YOU." So I think he indicated intent to revote pretty quickly. Coupled with voting moth-y when his wagon was high with proxy'd vote, I think bussing is not a very parsimonious interpretation.

Your rationale on Furc is reasonable, but I still think he's more likely scum than CKD. For one, he's kinda erratic with that kind of thing. For example, he hammered his scumfriend in a recently completed game (Mini 1000) under sketchy circumstances (e.g. partner had not even claimed yet) and seemed to think this would give him some hardcore leverage later on. On the other hand, I don't think he rhetoric-busses his scumfriends very much; he's basically a sweetie most of the time.

I wouldn't lynch either of them as my first choice.

I would prefer vezo or pacman out of v/p/CKD/Furc atm.

[vezokpiraka]

Why do you need a mass claim?
I think I know what you want but it''s not the way to go.

[vezokpiraka]

oh and

unvote

I think I will switch to pacman after this whole stuff with the mass claim ends.

[Furcolow]

I don't think I'm ever going to bus anyone ever again if I can help it after that game, Iecerint, thanks for bringing that up, i really loved hearing about that

@vezokpiraka top 3 suspects and why plz

[vezokpiraka]

1. Furcolow - He is a scummy bastard. I really don't like how he wants to get townie cred AFTER the hammer. I got lynched as sum because I did that and he gets a free pass?
2. Pacman " He is so confused he doesn't know where to mislynch at"
3. Chronopie - I find him scummy in every game but can't explain why. This time though he seems more like wanting to survive than to help the town.

[Furcolow]

i didn't get to hammer, but consider mothrax was on my wagon THE ENTIRE DAY and started off voting anyone on me, trying to mislynch me.... yeah, ok

on pacman: ok, he's confused. so he's VI, a mislynch, even by your own admission

3 strongest town reads and why?

[Furcolow]

what i mean by that is he was pretty much the first person to vote in the day at all, and his vote on me was dead serious. he wanted you all to take the easy path of lynching me the way they got wraith lynched

[vezokpiraka]

the thing I put is quotes near pacman means that:
He is scum and doesn't know who to vote for in order to force a mislynch.

Top 3 town in no particular order.
1. Socrates
2. Plum
3. Iecerint

[SocioPath]

I HAVE NO TIME.

VOTE: PACMAN