Mini 1023 - City Watch Mafia - Game Over!


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Post Post #725 (ISO) » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:22 am

Post by molestargazer »

The "This post should hopefully be on a new page" VOTE COUNT

FakeGod (4): Budja, jimfinn, Chronopie, Plum
TheButtonmen (1): Narsis
jimfinn (1): VasudeVa

Not Voting (3): TheButtonmen, Thor665, FakeGod

With 9 alive, 5 is needed to lynch.
Deadline is Friday 17th.
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Post Post #726 (ISO) » Wed Sep 15, 2010 2:06 pm

Post by FakeGod »

For those who don't know, here's an crude example of the Gambler's Fallacy:

Because more heads came out in my coin flips, when I flip more coins there will be more tails to "balance" this out. Which isn't true.

@jimfinn: What I calculated isn't the probability of the mod confirming a scum tomorrow. I calculated the overall chance of mod confirming at random and ending up at a situation where 4 randomly chosen players are town. (as I said, chance of this happening is low, which is why my vote would go on the chosen player)

But even if we're talking about chances of mod confirming a scum tomorrow (given that things already worked out to approximately where it would be), you conveniently forgot some important facts. (like VV can't be chosen again, Chronopie isn't a VT and cannot be chosen, and possibility of other PRs, be it town or scum, existing and cannot be chosen)

Plus, looking at who were mod-confirmed and what they claimed (Mysterio flipped VT, VV claimed VT, I claimed VT), no one can deny that the most-likely mechanism of this game setup is that 1 VT is mod-confirmed and granted powers every day.
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Post Post #727 (ISO) » Wed Sep 15, 2010 2:22 pm

Post by Budja »

^ The problem is the more days that pass, the stronger a confirmed-town player is.

I must admit that my reads are a bit all over the place ATM. VV's point re. Tasky last attack hits me with more uncertainty.
UNVOTE: VOTE: jimfinn, this is my last switch. If FG or Button were scum I had jim pegged as the partner.

@Plum, I don't blame you. I've been distracted from this game recently and my play has suffered.
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Post Post #728 (ISO) » Wed Sep 15, 2010 6:30 pm

Post by Thor665 »

Hmmm - re-read jimfin (aka - quick scanned his iso) I see him as pretty townie Day 1 but will admit his posting quality kind of degrades after that. I'm forced to still agree with FG about jim's shift to him being odd as jim held very clear and solid reads on other players for quite a while and was good about stating them out loud. Of course, in between that shift was when FG vote blocked me and that is the sort of action that can generate an attitude shift.

I'll have to re-read/scan FG tomorrow to see if I can spot that Tasky unconnection VV mentioned (aka feel free to just link it for me to spare me the effort). Still consider his "wagon to protect" as pretty damning.
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Post Post #729 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 12:03 am

Post by TheButtonmen »

/InB4Prod.

Post and Vote within 14 hours, the post is taking more time then I expected and I need to start getting ready for my shift.
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Post Post #730 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 12:50 am

Post by VasudeVa »

I doubt I'll be switching my vote, but I think I'll be around to hammer if needed.
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Post Post #731 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 2:37 am

Post by Narsis »

Unvote


/me grumbles something about being busy and needing to do a reread.
Record:
Town: 1W/3L

Mafia: 1W/0L

Other: 0W/0L
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Post Post #732 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 3:06 am

Post by molestargazer »

Don't forget deadline's tomorrow, folks.
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Post Post #733 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 3:09 am

Post by Narsis »

molestargazer wrote:
Don't forget deadline's tomorrow, folks.
ehh...

/me rereads faster...
Record:
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Post Post #734 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:02 am

Post by Narsis »

ok so reading Tasky in iso here's some things i've noticed (doing with possible connections etc):

1. His defense of me. His iso's #12 and #13 are a defense of me. looking at the context, at #12 my wagon was just behind Mysterio's and by #13 it had overtaken Mysterio's and looked to still be going strong. So why would he be defending me? is it a case of scum defending scum?

additionally look at his #14.(note: this is after the wagon on me starts falling apart and the one on KHG gets going) on the first two lines he says:
Tasky iso #14 wrote:the wagon against him was building a lot of momentum and it looked to me like it was going straight to a lynch... since for me the arguments supporting the wagon were bad, the probability that Narsis is scum is as much as anyone's imo... and that's not a good probability (4/12 at best).
so to me it looks like he was trying to defend a person that he thought would get lynched and knew would be revealed as town, thus hoping to gain some town cred.

after a couple comments on the KHG wagon(and how he thinks him and Mysterio are scum) he disappears for 11 days(although part of that was the night phase).

next comes his big post towards the end of Day 2. in contest, Chrono was leading the vote count and looked to probably be the days lynch. FG was second by one vote, and Vas(i read your sig :D ) was third, behind FG by 1. in the post, Tasky targets the days 2 top suspects, and claims they are also his own. for FG, he basically reiterates the case against him and throws an FoS. for Chrono, he again reiterates the case against him and places a vote(putting him at L-1 and very close to a lynch).

so thoughts: i could see the FG situation as either distancing scum or opportunistic scum. either way it reads as a null for me as a definite connection with FG. for Chrono i'm inclined to view it more as opportunistic scum.


anyway that's my Tasky reread in a nutshell. gotta go. got class. i'll do some more reading later.
Record:
Town: 1W/3L

Mafia: 1W/0L

Other: 0W/0L
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Post Post #735 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:59 am

Post by Thor665 »

Frankly, I'm starting to buy into the idea that FG is actually obtuse enough to hold the beliefs and actions he claims to. jimfinn's only real connection to Tasky that I see is how Tasky wanted off the wagon when it started to build steam - hard tell to discern.
I still don't grok why FG can't be buddies with Tasky.
Odds are my FG issue comes into better focus tomorrow.
Vote jimfinn
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Post Post #736 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 9:14 am

Post by TheButtonmen »

Back.

Nice short shift due to orientation.

Post in the next few hours.
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Post Post #737 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 10:04 am

Post by TheButtonmen »

Thor665 wrote: @Button - how does your FG/VV scum team feel at the moment?
I don't actually see this as a possible scum team, imo if he had wanted to FG could have forced through my lynch earlier today. (Note I'm not saying that I think FG is town because he didn't lynch me, I'm saying I don't think he is partners with VV because he didn't go for the lynch on me.
Thor665 wrote: His Button vote/unvote reasons were all really weird.
Word.

Though it wasn't his reason for voting me that stood out to me, it was the timing. However I'm going to stick with my town(ish) read on him for the moment.

@Budja:
Why the change from;
Budja on Sept 11th wrote: I think jim/Button is unlikely now. jim/FakeGod is possible.
to
Budja on Sept 14th wrote:If FG or Button were scum I had jim pegged as the partner.
Chrono's active lurking is really starting to bother me, this is heightened in light of his claim.
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Post Post #738 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 10:22 am

Post by TheButtonmen »

Whoops, hit submit rather then preview when I was checking my tags there.

I'm getting nervous about Jimfinn, Narsis, Budja and Chrono, way too much lurking / sheeping coming from that area and while I can explain most of it due to inexperiance it's becoming increasinly worrying as the game advances. I'm most bothered by Chronos as his claimed status as a protective role, where his play today isn't what I expect from an outted PR at all.

However due to deadline and the lack of people willing to hang VV and/or Chrono of all the current wagons I like the Jimfinn wagon the most (
Vote: Jimfinn
).

Though I'm quite open to moving it around should someone make give me a good reason to.
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Post Post #739 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 10:26 am

Post by Plum »

TheButtonmen wrote:I'm getting nervous about Jimfinn, Narsis, Budja and Chrono, way too much lurking / sheeping coming from that area and while I can explain most of it due to inexperiance it's becoming increasinly worrying as the game advances. I'm most bothered by Chronos as his claimed status as a protective role, where his play today isn't what I expect from an outted PR at all.
I echo your sentiments on Chrono but we'll be lynching him soon unless we get proof of his alignment anyway, as per the one-Day-before-LYLO deal. But that's actually likely to net scum (the scum not having tried to kill him vs. VV last Night is especially ODD).

Narsis is unlikely to be a Tasky buddy at this point.
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Post Post #740 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 10:45 am

Post by TheButtonmen »

Plum wrote:the scum not having tried to kill him vs. VV last Night is especially ODD
I may have mentioned my belief that they are gambiting scum once or twice?
...or maybe a couple dozen times.
:P
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Post Post #741 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 11:20 am

Post by Chronopie »

So people disagree with my playstyle. (fyi: Lurking is a meta null-tell)

And I don't play like other outed PRs. Tough shit if I've never bothered to engineer my playstyle for a particular situation, especially one I've never encountered before. (Of Gods and men doesn't count, as it was extremely power heavy)

I spot a tell, I'll think it over, maybe check an iso, and then, if I believe it's actually valid, present a case. Spam-a-lot is not endorsed. Until then, I'm going to post what I need to, what I can help with, and lend my vote where needed. If I see a WoT case I largely agree with, maybe having pointed out something I missed, I'm not going to try fabricate additional reasons to vote someone, because the WoT is sufficient and damning enough.
[/rage]


--

I gambled, protected VV, and (presumably) stopped a kill. Probably won't get so lucky twice. Ofc all this debate about whether I'm actually a JK is probably going to wifom the scum into keeping me alive for the potential of an easy lylo win. until then, I'm going to try stay one step ahead of them.
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Steam: Chronopie


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Post Post #742 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 2:06 pm

Post by Budja »

@Button, eh I'm really not sure anymore. I've WIFOM-ed myself a little too much.
jimfinn doesn't have as much of the uncertainly you and FG have.

@Chrono, you have no reason to be proud of being anti-town. Pick a side here.
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Post Post #743 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:39 pm

Post by FakeGod »

Vote: Jimfinn


Is it just me, or Budja's been doing an awesome job flying under the radar?

I don't think anyone even placed a vote on him even once in this game....
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Post Post #744 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 5:01 pm

Post by Plum »

Chronopie wrote:I gambled, protected VV, and (presumably) stopped a kill. Probably won't get so lucky twice. Ofc all this debate about whether I'm actually a JK is probably going to wifom the scum into keeping me alive for the potential of an easy lylo win. until then, I'm going to try stay one step ahead of them.
Uh, if you're Town JK you
didn't
gamble, which is precisely my point: protecting VV was easily the most viable option for you then. The
scum
gambled: either you're Town and they tried to kill someone other than you or you're scum and the scumteam probably decided to no-kill. Oh, and while we're on the topic, Chrono: Who'd you protect Night 1 and why didn't you say so when you claimed?

What bothers me is that if we lynch jimfinn today we . . . well, if neither of {jimfinn, Chronopie} are scum then we have some tough endgame choices ahead of us.

JIMFINN, claim ASAP and we'll discuss ASAP.
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Post Post #745 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 5:06 pm

Post by VasudeVa »

Can we get an ultra special deadline prod on jimfinn? Also, how many hours left before D/L?
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Post Post #746 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 5:10 pm

Post by jimfinn »

I am Constable Shoe, Vanilla Townie.
Welcome to The Minigame Race! A fun challenge of your skills at many, many games. Challenge 1: 9 players remain
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=15354
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Post Post #747 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 5:13 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

@VV:
molestargazer at 5:29 pm wrote:
It is now DAY THREE.
Deadline is Friday 17th September, about this time.
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Post Post #748 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 5:14 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

Please note that time is in EST.
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Post Post #749 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 5:21 pm

Post by Plum »

jimfinn wrote:I am Constable Shoe, Vanilla Townie.
So nu, what's your flavor? Can't hurt.

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