Mini 1036 - DEFCON Mafia - Over

[Calcifer]

I still think there is a chance that Percy is actually scum sub and he pulled up this whole eavesdrop charade because there are just too many inconsistencies.

What do you think about the leaked message Percy? Because I don't think the leaked message fits in well with what you have described. At all.

ZHERO USE THE METHOD IN POST 18. IT ISN'T THAT HARD. IF THIS POST IS FUCKING DROPPED I'M GOING TO BE PISSED BUT YOU ARE BEING A DUMBASS SO IT'S NOT REALLY A BIG LOSS. SERIOUSLY, IT ISN'T THAT HARD. IT'S BEEN TWO WEEKS, FIGURE IT OUT AND TELL US YOUR POWER.

Actually, this is what's been going through my head too. If scum did in fact spam this obviously fake message, Percy would have said something about getting three or so of them.

[Calcifer]

Although no-CC's suck. Maybe he did get Eavesdrop as scum.

[RedCoyote]

Okay, I didn't see that mention of "four" in the first go around. That's just odd. Here's what's stopping me. Why were earlier posts using one cipher, and then later posts using a different cipher? Enigma, you mentioned that the Caesar cipher is simple to use, yet you criticized Percy for figuring it out? I don't know much about encryption, so that confuses me. Also, if this is the simplest cipher, why was the more difficult one abandoned (Vinaigrette)?

I'm actually going to depart from what Enigma/Calcifer are saying, the fourth message looks similar to the message that was dropped to the whole group (minus the caps). Then again, it may be

too

similar, indicating that Percy is trying to shape it in such a way that it looks like the message we already saw.

The main thing we have to remember is that Percy claimed because Enigma more or less forced him to do so. This puts the impetus on Percy to react, you know, regardless of what alignment he has. Still, I'm falling back on what I said previously, because it's the best way I can make heads or tails of the situation. These messages sound too elaborate to be fake, but too fake to be real.

I need to hear from everyone on this, everyone needs to get a reaction down. I don't want to make a move before everyone puts themselves out there on what this means and/or if they cc Percy.

[Calcifer]

It is not unreasonable to think that Percy is capable of faking this though.

I was cyberstalking Percy ever since I got on this site

Regardless, I think that it is too convenient, and the lack of mention of the obvfake message raises eyebrows.

[Enigma]

It's easy to use for me because I have an understanding of cryptography. I can recognize the hints which suggests it may be a Caesar cipher.

It's one of the most commonly used cipher and easiest to break using brute force. Scum could have easily used a cipher which could not have been broken.

And also for the 4th message, what bothers me is that it says cbf using encryption. How much of a coincidence is that? Do they say I cbf using encryption every time they don't post in code?
And ALSO encryption using a website applet takes about 10 seconds. Honestly how can you not spend 10 seconds copy pasting that stuff into an applet???

I'm becoming more and more satisfied that Percy is lying.

BTW if we are going to assume Percy is telling the truth then it must mean that the leaked message is true because they could have only forced the leak message out by force (IE: spamming it). Vice versa is Percy is lying.

[Enigma]

There are ONLY 25 different possible combination that can be used. Figuring out a Caesar cipher with DIFFERENT caesar values requires you to sit there and try the 25 different possible combination.

Now with scum not identifying which Caesar values they are using it would also require scum to sit there and try all 25 combination for every single post. Keep in mind that the Caesar value changes for each post, it's like the equivalent of using a new cipher code every time you post in code. Which is VERY inconvenient for scum because they need to try 25 different combinations every time they want to read a message.

[Enigma]

We have half a week left on the deadline.
People need to make up their minds about this Percy issue ASAP because if you aren't convinced by this (I don't see how you can't but I'm waiting on Percy's response) we need to decide who is best to lynch next.

[Faraday]

Barring a counterclaim I believe Percy I think. Let me read over the leaked messages again though.

[Faraday]

I think Percy's probably the eavesdropper alright, I guess he'd be smart enough to fake it as scum but his messages line up pretty well with what he's said and who's he's sort of suspected in the game I think.

I'm not 100% as convinced as to the validity of the messages as him on some of them but still.

[Faraday]

see sig, biotches and mod.

[SocioPath]

HAHAHA OH WOW.

Those messages are silly.
There is no consistency to them at all.
I mean, it wouldn't surprise me if the scum went, 'alright, lets recreate each person and imitate them for each post, that way it, both, equally incriminates and clears everyone."
Not to mention the random throwing out of numbers AND codes for them.
Even the "DoomBunny" post doesn't make sense. 5%? Where in the hell did THAT number even come from?

Seems like a clusterfuck of nonsense.

But then there is the other side of the coin:
If scum got eavesdropper, than they could control the output.
Meaning it doesn't matter WHAT gets dropped to them, because they could just pick and choose whichever that would cause chaos and confusion and incriminate at will.

SO MANY FACTORS.

[AurorusVox]

Re: Enigma

I don't get why Defensive Troops would automatically make you presume someone had picked sub (and had lied)? That's why I jumped on your wording before. It explains your hesitance, but it doesn't explain why you put your vote down and let people assume you'd caught scum.

Re: Percy

My first reaction is that most of the "dropped" posts seem too helpful to be legitimate. That said, all posts would probably be helpful if intercepted. It seems a lot of effort to go to, to fake, but it could be faked if Percy was playing for great justice. If scum are spamming messages, Percy should have gotten some through (5% would have about 80 posts, and surely some of those would be the spammed ones?) but I'm suspicious enough of Enigma and Doomsbunny to see Percy as legit. I think the changing encryption is null, possibly slight tell for legitimacy for Percy (why would he fake multiple encryptions?); it looks like (a) they start with an easy one to get to a hard one and then (b) the hard one was too hard so they went back to the old one. It also makes me wonder if the un-coded one really was Zhero, and that relates to the dropped message earlier.

More tomorrow, I have to go now.

[Percy]

I don't get why there are two different encryptions? And a third is mentioned?

md5 encryption is mentioned for misdirection. The vigenere cipher is hard to translate but almost impossible to crack without the keyword, the caesar cipher is easy to translate and easy to crack.
The simple story is the scum lied, then they got lazy.

Yes, I'm fighter, and by process of elimination I thought that Percy had sub.

You are a *deep breath*

*counts to 10*

OK, if you're town, then this is one of the most anti-town moves I've ever, ever seen. I could have any of four abilities, and by claiming your result and voting today, you put me in a position where I likely had to claim today. Sure I didn't

have

to claim, but at least this way we can get the setup bullshit over and done with. I'm really annoyed that I had to out myself today, as chances are I'm not going to get any more use out of my PR.

It makes a lot more sense with Enigma as scum, because outing the Eavesdropper is great for you guys.

Also, Enigma,

Unfortunately I actually know a bit about cryptography, (just a pity I'm not going coding and cryptography until next year). You don't fuckign use a Cesar cipher if you want encrypt stuff. It's a fucking joke of a cipher, one of the most obvious ones to realize by eye and easiest to crack.

I think it's a miracle that Percy managed to figure out all the Caesar constants tbh. Convenient hey?

What story do you want to stick to? Recognising the Caesar cipher is easy, because punctuation is intact. And using an applet like this one means you can just cycle through the constants from 1 to 25 and find the right one.

As for the vigenere cipher, I had a lot of difficult decoding it, as I said. I don't know what site they're using. I used this.

Let me quote this also:

I tried to rolefish Eavesdrop in the post your linked Percy, that is correct.

More reasons to believe Enigma is scum. His "Scum are sooo stupid for doing xyz" is really on the nose.

Hey Enigma, what cipher would

you

have used? I think Vigenere is a great choice, though releasing the codewords after Eavesdrop went live was dumb (though they did try to throw dirt on Hinduragi, which means the Eavesdropper would have to know how to decode it).
I'd like to hear all about these "maths based" ciphers. Please enlighten me!

Eavesdrop was not my first preference, it was my second. My first preference was Espionage.

THIS IS ME TESTING THE CYPHER TO SEE IF

YOU FOUR

CAN PROPERLY DECRYPT IT

I don't get it either. The post was full of misdirection, and any attempt to say that this throws doubt on my claim is beyond dumb. Why would I put something like that in there on purpose? I'm just quoting what I got.

That's part of the reason I think hinduragi is town. Putting the cipher key in the post meant that I had to go to some effort to get his name, and it would be super-tempting to have a knee-jerk "FINALLY I CRACKED IT! HAHA SCUMTEAM, I KNOW HINDU IS ONE OF YOU!" reaction. Instead, no.

I still think there is a chance that Percy is actually scum sub and he pulled up this whole eavesdrop charade because there are just too many inconsistencies.

Yeah, sure I did, and I risked getting CC'd for absolutely nothing

What do you think about the leaked message Percy? Because I don't think the leaked message fits in well with what you have described. At all.

I think it's exactly what they said in the fifth message I got. They're faking a dropped message. I've thought about it for a while, and I think the scum motivation was to smear Zhero. Judging by his reaction as well, and I think he gets some townpoints.

If scum did in fact spam this obviously fake message, Percy would have said something about getting three or so of them.

That's not how probabilities work.

Also, if this is the simplest cipher, why was the more difficult one abandoned (Vinaigrette)?

The Vigenere cipher is hard to use. Imagine you're the scumteam and you need to spend a minute or two decoding each message in your QT. After a while, you'd run the risk of getting complacent, especially if there's only a 5% chance of any message being intercepted. That's the story I see working through the messages I've received. If the fourth message is fake, they've done a bang-up job of sounding exactly like Doombunny

and

predicting his play the next day.

5%? Where in the hell did THAT number even come from?

Eavesdrop

: A crucial part of the Allies’ success during WWII was its ability to crack into German communications. It worked then. Why wouldn’t it work now? {In DEFCON 3 or below, every time a member of an opposing faction communicates with another member of its faction privately during the night,

there is a 5% chance the message will be intercepted and its contents PM’d to you

. During the day, this possibility increases to 30%.}

SO MANY FACTORS.

Sure, but the Doombunny lead is the best one I've got.

If scum are spamming messages, Percy should have gotten some through (5% would have about 80 posts, and surely some of those would be the spammed ones?)

I've never received a message more than once. And the during-the-day messages are 10% public drop, 30% private drop. If the scum did it one-at-a-time, there's a 7% chance that the message would drop publicly but not privately, 3% chance it would drop to both, and 27% chance it would go to me and not be made public.

Times I received the messages:

(Deleted. This is your first warning for violating rule #6 - Do not quote any communication you have with the moderator,

including timestamps.

Careful paraphrasing is acceptable. Please contact me first if you are unsure of whether a post will violate this rule. --AGM)

I've got a plane to catch. Doombunny is scum, and Enigma is probably his buddy.

[SpyreX]

I've thought long, long and hard about this.

And I hate myself for even doing it:

Vote: Percy

This is how it's going in my head:

If Percy is scum:

1.) Chances are high he's the sub - that'd be the

only

role in that mix that would be worth these shenanigans. Nipping that in the bud is very nice.

If Percy is town:

1.) Knowing (while with a pretty freakin giant grain of salt) that these are actually whats going on in scumland gives a lot of information that is way awesome.

My conundrum is I like everything about Percy's play. However, I dislike everything about this claim. The idiot savant messages, the threefer received minutes apart all of it. It just smells wrong.

So, I'm down with this honestly expecting a town flip but knowing it needs to happen.

[RedCoyote]

Still waiting to hear from Hindu, Doombunny, and Zhero.

[Doombunny9]

This I've currently got laid at Doombunny's feet. I already thought Hinduragi's mention in the first post gave him a few townpoints, but adding in AV and myself make me think this post is legit. The "I'm not going to bother disguising" fits with the complaints message, and the "I already started a case on SocioPath" sounds a lot like Doombunny.

Wait wait wait. Town gets a non encoded message that frames Zhero and that's fine but when one frames me that makes me scum? Teh whats? Even when you got an encoded message that more or less confirms they were dropping faked messages? I'm agreeing with Socio here, scum probably created a 'lolframe' for every person or at least the more scummy ones.

You did vote me, or have you forgotten that already?

Yes i have but I did unvote and if that portion was directed to me it souned like the vote was still on you.

And no, I'm not going to answer your fucking question. I've explained my case, and you're quibbling over words.

So you're not doing it because you think its pointless? At this point I don't even think you have an answer. Also, you have no reason to not answer unless for whatever reason it harms the town.

Now for the messages. Also, I know only the basics about cyphers so i can't be of any help when it comes to the weird stuff.

thisishinduragitestingthezzzzencryptedmessagezpleaserespondifyou anreadthisz

I'm goingt o say this is a null tell unless we can get more information about this. I doubt scum would put there own names in their posts even when coded, and especially one that has the coding info in it. The hindu part could be to throw off the interceptor if they got this information.

@Enigma- Why say Percy was scum because you found out he had a passive ability? There's more than just the sub... It would also have been a really good thing to mention when you said you had info on Percy too...

Anyway, the messages seem to be in Enigma style and I'm beginning to look at him more closely.

Vote: Enigma

Bais for now. See you all in 4 days

[AurorusVox]

I've never received a message more than once. And the during-the-day messages are 10% public drop, 30% private drop. If the scum did it one-at-a-time, there's a 7% chance that the message would drop publicly but not privately, 3% chance it would drop to both, and 27% chance it would go to me and not be made public.

Oh, herp, there's not been any night phase for that to drop to the 5%. I was going to conclude that there's been about 20 messages since DEFCON 3, which I'm not sure how to interpret - but then I realised that chasing the numbers becomes pointless until we get a large enough number of posts to see it average out at 30%.

The threefer received minutes apart all of it. It just smells wrong.

I assume that the times don't mean that all three messages were minutes apart. I assume that AGM got online, ran the percentages, and posted each message off as they dropped. Unless those times are stated as the times that the messages were posted (Percy?), I don't think we can conclude much from them. Otherwise you would have to get into time zones and online times and all sorts of meta/mechanics debate.

That said, I could go for a Percy-lynch-to-see-what-happens just to confirm the messages. Not to mention that eavesdropper would be the perfect ability for the SK, imo. But, it's a difficult call to make, and I'd

rather

see how this plays out without lynching Percy.

[AurorusVox]

(This is far from pressing but since it's out there I figured I'd answer)

THEN WHY ARE YOU WASTING MY TIME?!

Because you said you thought a Calci-Enigma scumteam was "demented", and I think there could be scope for a legitimate distancing tactic between them. Not sure how to read it all in light of the Percy shenanigan though.

[AurorusVox]

I've noticed that Percy tells us that "The fourth and fifth messages were received during the night," failing to mention the third message until later on when he reveals that the message came to him after the Elscouta hammer (and so I presume "during the night")
(1) Why not say "the third, fourth and fifth messages were received during the night"? Could be inconsistency, backtracking, ducking and weaving; BUT
(2) Why fake the Elscouta message as coming AFTER the hammer? If he was faking, he'd have said it came beforehand for piling on more suspicion. Unless he's just poured a nice glass of red and placed it on the table.

I'm with RC, I'll wait to say any more on the matter 'til everyone's had their piece (I think we're just waiting on Zhero and Hindu now).

[Zhero]

Ooh, interesting stuff. Messages seem pretty fake to me, like scum said "let's just post bullshit, it'll be hilarious". This is somewhat backed up by Percy not getting the dropped message: it was probably only posted once, not spammed, and probably just one of many different misleading posts.

I see a few people talking about the dropped message being spammed, so just to specify, I assume scum doesn't know when the Eavesdropper is successful. If they spammed a message enough to have a 50% chance of it dropping in-thread, the Eavesdropper would have over a 90% chance of seeing it at least once. Those are bad odds for scum, and it makes much more sense to post different messages each time.

The Caesar codes are just cryptograms, you could even crack them without a program. It makes them horrible for communication since it's only a few minutes work to break one, but they'd have to do that few minutes for every single post.

The weird part is the Vigenere stuff. Why would they bother posting in a code they're not certain the Eavesdropper could crack?

But yeah, I don't think any meaningful conclusions can be made here.

If Percy is town:

1.) Knowing (while with a pretty freakin giant grain of salt) that these are actually whats going on in scumland gives a lot of information that is way awesome.

My conundrum is I like everything about Percy's play. However, I dislike everything about this claim. The idiot savant messages, the threefer received minutes apart all of it. It just smells wrong.

So, I'm down with this honestly expecting a town flip but knowing it needs to happen.

I don't like this plan. Today's lynch is an important one. Worst case scenario, we lynch town today, two towns get bomber'd overnight, a town gets sub'd the next morning, and we're at 3:3:1, with town no longer in control of the lynch. Crosskills are possible but I'd rather not depend on them.

Assuming that scum is just posting noise, we learn virtually nothing from a town-Percy flip, and potentially lower town's chances even more by taking the resulting WIFOM seriously.

I assume that the times don't mean that all three messages were minutes apart. I assume that AGM got online, ran the percentages, and posted each message off as they dropped.

Since the third message references hammering Els but came after the lynch, this is almost certainly true.

Wait wait wait. Town gets a non encoded message that frames Zhero and that's fine but when one frames me that makes me scum? Teh whats? Even when you got an encoded message that more or less confirms they were dropping faked messages? I'm agreeing with Socio here, scum probably created a 'lolframe' for every person or at least the more scummy ones.

...

Anyway, the messages seem to be in Enigma style and I'm beginning to look at him more closely. Vote: Enigma

Heh, so drops sounding like you are null but drops sounding like Enigma are voteworthy?

Unvote. Vote: Doombunny9

I'm up for a Doombunny lynch, I think it's a good case even without the drops.

[Zhero]

(2) Why fake the Elscouta message as coming AFTER the hammer? If he was faking, he'd have said it came beforehand for piling on more suspicion. Unless he's just poured a nice glass of red and placed it on the table.

It's weird that 3 is written pre-hammer and 4 during the night, but there may have just been a delay in receiving the information.

[VasudeVa]

Honestly, I don't even care about these right now. Too much shit goin on to wrap my head around.

Enigma is obviously not scum. Seriously, the scum move for getting a non-incriminating track on your ability is to be submissive. He isn't. He's acting real Townie, IMO. He's far too aggressive and confident. And I'm not seeing signs that he doesn't believe what he's saying. No way I'm voting Enigma.

Percy is...difficult. The messages sound too convenient. It's like the eavesdrop equivalent of a scum fake-investigation on a dead player. That said though, everything seems bulletproof and if Percy is scum, applause to him. However, I really have no reason to think that he is scum, especially considering his actions over the course of the game. I will not be voting Percy. I do think that he's probaly not Mafia since there I don't see anybody acting like they know what's going on. He's probably Town or SK. I'm thinking Town but I really can't wrap my head around how convenient the messages are.

The last person really, is Doombunny. I've mentioned in my reread that I think he's scum and with deadline coming, he's a good vote.

Vote: Doombunny

[Calcifer]

Flarg.

[Enigma]

What story do you want to stick to? Recognising the Caesar cipher is easy, because punctuation is intact. And using an applet like this one means you can just cycle through the constants from 1 to 25 and find the right one.

As for the vigenere cipher, I had a lot of difficult decoding it, as I said. I don't know what site they're using. I used this.

HAHAHHAHAHA
*stops to breath*
HAHAHHAHAHAH

For someone who is so smart you just failed miserably.
Your vigenere decoder, it decodes keeping the case constant. Your translations are from upper case to lower case, their translation remains at uppercase.
It also doesn't split text up into multiple lines.
Let me guess ... you decided to write down the entire mumble jumble then retype it into the post using lower case letters. LOLOLOL.
Those 2 sites also happen to be the first on google if you search for a decoder. Interesting fact.

Can we lynch this scum already.

The Caesar codes are just cryptograms, you could even crack them without a program. It makes them horrible for communication since it's only a few minutes work to break one, but they'd have to do that few minutes for every single post.

The weird part is the Vigenere stuff. Why would they bother posting in a code they're not certain the Eavesdropper could crack?

But yeah, I don't think any meaningful conclusions can be made here.

Heaps of meaningful conclusions come from here... Honestly with such a small percentage, how does Percy just manage to come across the Vigenere codeword which he can use for later codes??? The convenience of that just amazes me.

[Enigma]

I didn't necessary make the conclusion that you were sub. I made the conclusion you were scum. Let's look at the list of role abilities.

Submarine: A submerged nuclear submarines can survive for months without surfacing and can creep incredibly close to enemy shores without being detected. {On the first day of DEFCON 1, you may launch a nuclear weapon without revealing yourself as the aggressor. For the rest of the game, you may launch nuclear weapons as though you possessed a missile silo in nuclear launch mode.}

Eavesdrop: A crucial part of the Allies’ success during WWII was its ability to crack into German communications. It worked then. Why wouldn’t it work now? {In DEFCON 3 or below, every time a member of an opposing faction communicates with another member of its faction privately during the night, there is a 5% chance the message will be intercepted and its contents PM’d to you. During the day, this possibility increases to 30%.}

Air base: Capable of deploying a wide variety of response aircraft within seconds and fortified to the brink, any infrastructure surrounding the air base becomes incredibly difficult to penetrate. {You are immune to non-nuclear activated abilities except the Stealth Bomber.}

Fail Safe: Courtesy of Dr Strangelove or: How I learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb {If you are targeted by a player with a nuclear launch, you automatically launch a nuclear weapon targeting the player targeting you. Your launch cannot be recalled or prevented}.

Firstly, he can't be Air Base because I would have received a null result.

Now consider, I spent heaps long saying how crap Eavesdrop was, Percy never suggested otherwise that it was better or disputed any of my arguing. It's also an easy claim, because hopefully I drilled it into everyone's mind about how crap Eavesdrop was noone would have tried to pick it. I also tried to rolefish when the Zhero message came up and nothing really happened so I was more confident that he really wasn't Eavesdrop. Also he posted thisabout the Zhero message. Now timestamps got nuked so I can't compare when this was posted to the leaked messages, if someone want's to do that for me I it would be so appreciated. So I assumed noone as town had picked Eavesdrop leaving me with the last 2 options. Scum could still have picked it to limit information flow, possibly as a secondary choice.

Percy said he didn't have sub, so if he got this option, he most obviously lied outright and is probably scum.

Now onto fail safe. Percy isn't stupid. Fail safe is massive fail for town, because it's unpredictable and can very likely end up hurting town more than scum if you are on town since you have no control over it. It's alot better for scum since scum aren't going to be nuking each other.

Based on the above is why I deduced Percy was scum. All the defensive abilities are suited to scum, not town.