Mini 1056 - NFL Mafia (Game Over)

[Locke Lamora]

Hi all. Catching up now.

[Locke Lamora]

I'll start with a:

Vote: Coach Travis

I find that he's spent the majority of his time talking about who he thinks looks town and very little time looking for scum. His minor attacks on Mongoose are about the only attempts towards scumhunting I can see. Suggests that he's thinking more about looking town rather than finding scum.

So when I was in the Sopranos Mafia with InHim and Raj, InHim buddied up to Raj fairly early, and they both turned out to be scum. You do this as town too, InHim?

Maritya: do you think scum replace out due to disinterest/dislike of the role more than town do?

[Locke Lamora]

Raj: so what you're saying is you're both either scum or town? Think I'd figured that one out already.

Maritya: I'd say how hard scum is to play depends on the set-up and the quality of both the town and scum players. Sometimes players just replace out because a game's not quite what they expected, or they didn't read the rules properly. I had a newbie VT replace out of a game I was modding early on because after being under pressure at the start they felt they didn't have enough experience to play a mini at that stage. My view is that unless I have some meta info on that specific player so I know they hate playing scum, inactivity/replacing out is a null tell.

[Locke Lamora]

Jim: if you're town, but cautious and don't post much on D1, it hurts town later on when people are trying to get a read on you. Just because what you do now might not be immediately relevant, it doesn't mean it won't be relevant later in the game.

Coach Travis: just because scum don't need to figure out alignments doesn't mean they don't post their reads. Posting townreads is much safer than posting scumreads because you're not putting pressure on anyone, you're not likely to attract too much attention and you're not leaving a trail of votes or suspicions. Seen anything you find scummy since your last post?

Shotty: do you still love your vote?

[Locke Lamora]

Why are we talking about N1 investigations when we haven't even had N1? Not liking Kdub's attempt to cast suspicion on two players for that; it strikes me as a misrep and eagerness to make players look scummy without considering the situation.

Unvote; Vote: Kdub

[Locke Lamora]

Mongoose: tell me why you got lynched in Boondox. Was your gameplay very similar to here?

[Locke Lamora]

Having read SSB Mafia, I think scum-mongoose works harder than this.

Shotty: your Kdub 'case' is ridiculous. That's got to be the weakest collection of scumtells I've ever seen. You're just plain wrong with the majority of it. Your failure to comment on anything other than a few Kdub remarks and your eagerness to hammer mongoose don't do you any favours either.

Unvote; Vote: drmyshottyizsik

[Locke Lamora]

Mod: I'm moving house this week so I won't have much time. V/LA until Friday.

[Locke Lamora]

Hi everyone, sorry for the absence, will attempt to catch up asap but things are still a bit chaotic and I don't have internet in my house, so I might have to get to this tomorrow.

[Locke Lamora]

I've been thinking about this and I'm not convinced that Mongoose would be so eager to bus his buddy the linebacker. Based on a quick read-through, I think horrordude is a likely Shotty buddy. His FoS on Shotty after the modkill remark in particular seems to me like scum tentatively bussing. He also managed to completely avoid Shotty's lynch.

Vote: horrordude0215

[Locke Lamora]

Vote: horrordude0215

To reiterate what I said yesterday, I particularly get a scumbuddy vibe from this:

Shotty asks for a modkill... eek.

FoS

at least.

Mari: how come you're falling back to suspecting me based on Razgriz's play now?

[Locke Lamora]

What's your opinion of my Shotty vote, Mari?

[Locke Lamora]

Mari: I was more interested in what you thought in the context of the vote and why, if you think I'm potential scum, I would have voted for Shotty at that juncture.

[Locke Lamora]

I could see Kdub as a Shotty buddy too. Consider his response to Shotty's terrible accusations towards him in ISO 9. After pointing out Shotty's contradiction he states "I'm not even sure whether to call it scummy or VI play". He also avoids voting him. I think Shotty has made an attempt at bussing Kdub but, as the case was so thoroughly fabricated, it came off as horribly weak and unjustified. Kdub's giving Shotty a way out rather than putting any real pressure on him; then on D2 he goes after CT for trying to take the pressure off Shotty when his wagon built.

[Locke Lamora]

What's your opinion of my Shotty vote, Mari?

It didn't strike me as odd, but that doesn't really mean anything.

Shotty was so blatantly scummy, that anyone could pull a good case against him.

Why?

That answers your question.

I don't think it does. I mean in the context of the wagons at the time, not the context of Shotty being scummy all the time. Essentially, I'm asking you why Locke-scum would bus Shotty-scum at that point. What's the scum motivation?

[Locke Lamora]

Horrordude: you certainly weren't the only person to call Shotty out for the modkill remark. Your response did strike me as the most likely to be an effort to look like you suspected Shotty without completely dropping him in it by voting for him. Your response basically amounts to 'well, if you think that's scummy, lots of other people did it too!' That's not a defence, but as you brought it up, who do you think is most likely to be Shotty's buddy, based on their response to the situation?

[Locke Lamora]

If I am the QB, I did not pass to Horror on N1.

[Locke Lamora]

Horror: Raj's position makes complete sense. Of course there is the possibility of 2 WRs in the game. There's also the possibility that you're fakeclaiming. Raj is going with the second possibility. I don't see what you think the inconsistency is.

[Locke Lamora]

So the defence intercepting just means that the same player who killed Antihero could also catch, right?

Waiting on inHim's claim.

[Locke Lamora]

I wasn't sure what happened to a WR who was targeted by the QB and killed the same night. It doesn't say whether kills or point-scoring resolves first. As scum can't perform another action at the same time as injuring, everyone confirmed they didn't throw to horror, and the other WR clearly caught the ball for a touchdown N1, I am assuming that the QB was permitted to throw to Antihero again, as it was no longer a consecutive night (I'm obviously assuming that the QB isn't an idiot and decided to throw to a player he knew was a WR). If scum killing a WR doesn't automatically cause an interception, then the quarterback, the mafia kill and the cornerback must all have targeted Antihero.

[Locke Lamora]

Well, the QB could have done, but I would have thought that if there are 2 WRs and Antihero was the one who caught the touchdown pass N1, the QB would have targeted Antihero again. There's no sense in targeting anyone else as Anti wasn't outed and the QB knew he was a WR.

[Locke Lamora]

If we no-lynch and scum were to miss the QB with their kill, they could end up almost certainly screwed. PoE from the confirmed QB and today's lynch situation might leave them without any way out. If scum were to hit the QB, then we're probably back here, depending on who the QB is. At the moment I'm inclined to say that it would be better to let them have the shot and give them the chance to miss. They might have an idea of who the QB is, but there's no way for them to know for certain. If we did lose the QB after no-lynch, then surely we'd just have to work it out without them in a 3-2 situation, which is what would happen if the QB claimed today. Unless the QB can give us a second innocent, in which case surely scum would have to counter-claim or they'd instantly lose?

[Locke Lamora]

Mari: I can see it coming from town. It's possible that his claiming will hurt rather than help our chances, so I don't think it's flat-out scummy like others. I need to look back over him again and see how his whole game play matches up with the scum inHim I know.

[Locke Lamora]

I went back to probably the best voting information we have, which is the rapid change from Mongoose to Shotty on D1.

First, the vote count when Mongoose is comfortably the leading wagon:

VOTE COUNT

mongoose

- 5 (

Coach Travis, GhostWriter

, inHimshallibe,

Antihero

, Mariyta)
inHimshallibe - 1 (Kdub)

drmyshottyizsik

- 2 (rajrhcpfreak, jimfinn)

GhostWriter

- 1 (

horrordude0215

)
Kdub - 2 (Locke Lamora,

drmyshottyizsik

)

horrordude0215

- 1 (

mongoose

)

We can see that 3 of the 5 people on Mongoose have now flipped town. I would expect there to be at least one scum on this wagon, as Mongoose is a particularly easy target. Given that we can't have a situation where Mari is scum and inHim is not, either they are both scum, inHim is, or we have what I think is less likely: this wagon is all townies. If inHim is town, at least one of Raj or Jim is bussing Shotty at this stage. Shotty himself has just made a poor case on Kdub, which is where his vote stays. Kdub can still be town if inHim is, but only if both Raj and Jim are bussing Shotty, which seems unlikely, given his Linebacker status, and unnecessary.

Now, onto vote count 2:

VOTE COUNT

mongoose

- 2 (

Coach Travis, GhostWriter

)
inHimshallibe - 1 (Kdub)

drmyshottyizsik

- 7 (rajrhcpfreak, jimfinn, Locke Lamora,

mongoose

, Mariyta, inHimshallibe,

Antihero

)

GhostWriter

- 1 (

horrordude0215

)
Kdub - 1 (

drmyshottyizsik

)

We see here that the two players who remained on Mongoose were both town. I switched my vote to Shotty, following which Mongoose, Mari and inHim all added their votes in quick succession and Anti hammered after Shotty mangled his claim. It's obvious here that Mari's vote is the real swing; Mongoose and myself both moved our votes from other wagons, so it's Mari's switch from the Mongoose wagon that really puts Shotty as the viable lynch when it would have been easy to keep the pressure up on Mongoose. I'm therefore far more confident that Mari is town than InHim, as her vote is the real lynch-changer. Jim reacts before inHim moves his vote, with the wagons at 5-4, and says he is keeping his vote on Shotty. Raj responds after his vote, asking inHim if it's 'too easy' to have identified a Shotty/Mongoose/Coach team so early.

Conclusions:

Mari is very likely town. If we take the view that at least one scum would have taken the opportunity to wagon Mongoose, inHim has to be scum. If inHim is town, Kdub is very likely scum with either Raj or Jim, as I don't believe both scum would have left their votes on their Linebacker like that. Right now I'm leaning towards inHim-scum, which I think fits in better with the voting patterns.

Mari: what do you think? Do you reckon that Mongoose wagon was all town? Do you think both Raj and Jim were bussing Shotty, or is Kdub scum?

Oh, and if I am the QB, I can not clear inHim.

[Locke Lamora]

Raj and Jim's votes on Shotty to look over:

really?

ive been trying to avoid voting for you since your first post was attacking me. but i am not actively lurking and modkilling is bad no matter what. we are 4 pages in and you were able to get into the game easily.

vote: drmyshottyizsik

DMSIS, it seems really scummy of you to be pushing for a modkill. It almost sounds like a scum trying to push to get rid of a town player easily without having to make a case. I'm going to

unvote

VOTE: DMSIS

Raj's I find odd because it feels like he's battling with the instinct that he shouldn't wagon Shotty. The bit about Jim's vote that bothers me is the way he phrases his reasoning eg. 'it seems really scummy', 'it almost sounds like a scum'. It's a little bit too tentative.

On the flip side, while GhostWriter and Horrordude comment on this situation right away, Mari and inHim (and CT and myself) do not. It's harder to draw anything from this, but it is odd that following the initial two votes, there's very little reaction to the situation from anyone. Even Raj and Jim don't say much about Shotty until the pressure on him restarts following his Kdub vote.

[Locke Lamora]

I didn't say it did it for you specifically. I said the pressure increased after his Kdub vote. That was what made both Mongoose and myself vote for him.

[Locke Lamora]

I didn't think there was a single part of it that was accurate. He looked like he was stretching to make a case with every comment he made. It was just so inauthentic it set off a massive scum alarm in my head; nothing read like it came from a townie.

[Locke Lamora]

Sorry guys, will try to get to this today. First instinct is that if Mari can be cleared, the QB should claim. From my perspective that would narrow the scum down to a 2/3 shot. If we can't narrow it down from there, then we're just failures at scumhunting, in my opinion.

[Locke Lamora]

Thinking about it, if this was a non-theme game, we'd be very likely to NL. Inclined towards that at the moment. I don't really see how inHim is going to cause 'havoc' tonight if he's scum, Raj. That seems way out of proportion to me.

[Locke Lamora]

Jim: I'd say Anti.

Given the state of the game now, I think mass-claim is a good idea. I think we're just going to end up with a dead QB and a similarly difficult situation tomorrow if we NL. Shall we get on with it?

[Locke Lamora]

I'm an Offensive Tackle.

[Locke Lamora]

Wait, what? How am I the default lynch? Are you even going to review the game in the light of inHim's flip?

[Locke Lamora]

If inHim couldn't catch and scum intercepted N3, the scum CB must have targeted inHim, right?

Kdub: Mari's probably going to annoy me by saying I'm scum all day, but is confirmed town. One of Raj and you is the CB and must have bussed inHim, knowing that Jim was likely QB and was voting inHim because he thought he'd thrown to scum who could catch. Raj is confirmed town if charter confirms that the offence gained 100 yards last night, which, from my understanding of the rules, is the only way offence could have scored last night. If that's true, you're scum.

[Locke Lamora]

Oh, and could Raj and Mari please, to preserve my sanity, reread the Shotty lynch and tell me why on earth scum-Locke would have bussed his Linebacker instead of going for the easy Mongoose lynch? Please? I know Mari is town and it's looking pretty likely Raj is, so could you just stop and think about that for a second?

[Locke Lamora]

It would have been nice if you'd given me the time to actually fight my corner. It really wouldn't have killed you to give me a chance to at least respond once the mod had clarified.

That said, I really wasn't at high activity levels this game, so I apologise for that. I honestly couldn't decide about inHim yesterday; the speed of the votes going on made me think scum but I didn't have much of a scumread on Raj or Jim, which meant inHim had to be scum. I do think putting Shotty under pressure at the stage I did would have been a pretty reckless play as scum, though - mongoose was guaranteed to vote Shotty to save himself and that made the wagon a very viable alternative. I might have done it to a goon but it would have been stupid to do it to the linebacker. I have now learnt that Mari always thinks I'm scum, so next time I'll have to work harder to convince her otherwise Well played to Kdub, he stayed off the radar and ended up with a pretty easy endgame there.

Great setup, Charter. Using the points for abilities was a cool idea and the game worked nicely.