Mini 1023 - City Watch Mafia - Game Over!

[Thor665]

Y'know, I was working on actually gathering up vote counts from the mod but as I did I realized I'm dramatically too lazy to really want to collate them and color code them for clarity. I'm not really a vote analysis sort of guy anyway, so here's my thing about FG;

Remember that post VV (hi VV, I'mma mock you in the dead topic now!) but do you remember that post that VV was championing as the one that Tasky made that "cleared" Chrono when he rolled in and FOSed FG and then voted Chrono? Yeah, we now know he chose to bus his partner. The big question here is do we think he had the brass tacks to bus both partners in the same post?

The biggest thought against the Button wagon for me is this;

Day 1 Lynch

KHG

(6):

Plum

,

TheButtonmen

,

Chronopie

,

Budja

,

Tasky

,

Mysterio

Narsis

(3):

VasudeVa

, Thor665,

jimfinn

Mysterio

(2):

Narsis

, FakeGod

Not Voting (1):

KHG

Mysterio double voted to put KHG through. Do we really think it took a town double vote and all three scum to get KHG lynched? If either of the blue names are scum then that's what that means.

Unvote: TheButtonmen

I want to do a bit more research on this, but I seem to recall reading an analysis once where it showed the odds of having all three scum on a Day 1 town lynch in a 12 man was an exceedingly small likelihood (I think actually it was more likely to have no scum on the lynch). I'm going to try some google-fu for this. Wouldn't mind some discussion on my thoughts here.

VOTE COUNT

TheButtonmen (1): FakeGod

Not Voting (4): Budja, Plum, TheButtonmen, Thor665

[Thor665]

@Budja - FG is apparently not a suspect in your mind, why is this?

[Budja]

I am not certain, if I was I would have hammered and been done with it.

However, scum have been killing relatively scummy players and that is something I cannot see a FG/Chrono/Tasky scumteam doing, especially after Tasky's death.
Chrono's actions also suggest scum-coaching to me, and I don't think FG-scum would be a risk-taker.

[Plum]

Quick thoughts: Scum killing VV makes me weirdly a bit more confident in Budja-Town; I actually see it as some kind of weird scumploy try to heap suspicion on him by killing the other Cop-type-role-receiver.

Dunno about the Lovers thing, how that works with Budja. Let's see - we have five alive. If we lynch TBM today and he flips Town THEN we have four alive going into Night. IF both Lovers are Townies that's game over right there - same thing if we mislynch FakeGod. If one Lover is a scumbag and we mislynch either TBM or FG today THEN tomorrow it's three alive with a better-than-even chance of hitting scum.

I really don't know. From a flavor perspective having the two Lovers makes sense if they're both really Carrot and Angua (awwwww). From a balance perspective, do you realize that TBM being scum

would

make everyone who's gotten a power Town? From a balance perspective again . . .

2 Mafia Goons
1 Mafia ????

1 Town Doctor
6 Town Vanilla (One-day Doublevote, Cop, Vote Restrict, Lie Detector Cop)
2 Town Lovers, unconfirmed

It looks

okay

except for the two Cop-types and the Doctor combined. That would depend on a few things, mostly on what the Mafia ???? is. I'd

guess

either a Rolecop (useful vs. Cop/Doc combos when the Cop is so elusive in terms of Nightkills and such, and also v. strong against Lovers) or possibly a Godfather type. That would implicate the scum being sacrificial in favor of the very valuable teammate, which

might

suggest FG scum but on the other hand might not - reread necessary. Don't do anything drastic; we're almost certainly in a form of MYLO.

[FakeGod]

Not much thoughts, guys?

[Budja]

^ It would help if you and Button were less apathetic.

@Plum, all the player who have received powers have been considered scummy (day 1 doesn't count here). That would help me believe my pet theory above.
The only powerful powers were VV's and mine. The town isn't really that strong. I wouldn't be surprised if the third scum was also a goon.

[TheButtonmen]

^ It would help if you and Button were less apathetic.

It's a 37 page game, there is a very good chance we are in Lylo and as I've all ready stated I need to reread this whole thing, I'm in 3 other games, in university and work. It's been 48 hours since I posted, give me a chance to finish, we have the time.

[Thor665]

@Buttonmen - just curious, why aren't you voting FG right now? The read might help for getting evidence, but the logical town play from your perspective seems like it would be obvious - am I missing something?

[molestargazer]

Everyone's in the prod range, but this activity's not that great...

[TheButtonmen]

@Buttonmen - just curious, why aren't you voting FG right now? The read might help for getting evidence, but the logical town play from your perspective seems like it would be obvious - am I missing something?

I'm not casting my vote until I'm done reading.

[FakeGod]

^ It would help if you and Button were less apathetic.

apathetic?

[Thor665]

@FG - if the shoe fits.

What are your thoughts on my reason for unvoting TBM as presented at the top of the page (with pretty colors)?

[Budja]

@FG, I want you and Button to fight, not just wait for the rest of us to decide.

[Plum]

Fight! Fight! Fight!

On the other hand, Thor, the colors are pretty and all BUT I'd prefer to evaluate our two scumbags in terms of our basic two suspects today . . .

[Thor665]

Go for it, still waiting for some of those thoughts you promised. I'm hardly clever enough to claim absolute opinion.

[Plum]

Quicklook: Tasky basically ignored Chrono until he started bussing or whatnot. I think he ignored TBM somewhat more than FakeGod; it's hard to say. BUT Chrono going after FakeGod over jimfinn Day 3 is telling; specifically, I don't think it was bussing though that is pending a more thorough read of the context there. I don't think that if FG were scum Chrono would have voted for him over jimfinn . . .

[Thor665]

Yeah, there's also the Tasky return post where he FOSed FG and then voted Chrono - bussing both your buddies is not that common, and though I think he was gunning for town points with the apparent Chrono lynch I can't imagine he'd want to set up his buddy as the secondary thereafter.

[Plum]

And it makes me feel better about Budja because three scum in a row on a wagon is as far as I know pretty rare, especially compared to simply three scum out of three on a wagon.

[FakeGod]

@FG - if the shoe fits.

What are your thoughts on my reason for unvoting TBM as presented at the top of the page (with pretty colors)?

hey, everyone's entitled to their opinions. You are saying it may not be likely that all three scum were not on the lynch wagon d1, and I can see why scum team might want to split up instead of all bwing the same guy. That's great, but obviously it doesn't happen all the time.

@FG, I want you and Button to fight, not just wait for the rest of us to decide.

*attacks Button with giant fists of clay*

[TheButtonmen]

@FG, I want you and Button to fight.

No.

You know what, I still have my town read on him, A) FakeGod scum doesn't really make sense and B) That's too obvious.

Weird kills + Obvmove make me all sorts of paranoid.

Instead I'd like to discuss a no-lynch.

[FakeGod]

If we do a no-lynch, then....

if lovers are town, one will die tonight, and other will die tomorrow, putting us at LYLO with Plum cleared.

if one of the lovers are scum, one of the other players will be shot. Then it's an instant win since we either a) lynch the mafia, or b) lynch his lover and he dies next night. (there will be 2 town left and he can only shoot one)

It's surprisingly effective I think. Any thoughts?

[FakeGod]

o wait, I retract what I said about instant win, because there's a chance that mafia will shoot someone other than lovers even if both lovers are town.

[Budja]

^ Yeah, I was just about to correct you.
No lynch = bad idea.

[Plum]

WIFOM alert

Downspout is a mediocre claim (yes?). The other two scum fakes were pretty good though - Cheery had a major role in at least one of the books, and even though I have a shoddy memory Sgt. Colon was an instantly recognized name despite the fact that I can't remember much-if-anything else about him. And I guess if one of the scum had a mediocre claim it would be a double-edged sword given that I'm A.E. Pessimal (sure as heck can't remember who he was, if I even read a book he appeared in) and suchlike . . .

Conclusion: Despite mild panic on my part I think that TBM's claim doesn't make it less likely that he's scum. So.

[FakeGod]

So.

So?