Mini 1084: The New Jersey Shore (Game Over)

[themanhimself]

Vote:hanzo_5

Because he's likely connected to that shady dharma initiative

[themanhimself]

Finger:Guthrie

....... what kind of person doesn't like the joker.......?

[themanhimself]

Why are we thinking that chaotic neutrality is writing everything as a poem? Role restriction is the obvious guess, any more elaborate ideas?

[themanhimself]

Aaaaaaaaaannnnnd carrotcake is writing everything as a haiku

[themanhimself]

Whoops, wrote that second post without seeing the first page and the rest of carrotcake's posts, scratch last post.

Llamarble, I was trying to get things moving in the game, much like you were with that post. I was going to say that it seemed like chronic neutrality was probably a townie considering the theme of the game

[themanhimself]

I'm totally gonna start saying I'm psychic if it ends up being hanzo.

In other news I re-read everything and found a new interpretation of CC's first haiku post. What if he was trying to set himself up for a role claim after seeing chaotic neutrality's post and then realized writing everything as a haiku is way more work than he was looking for so he abandoned before he was too committed? That would certainly have an air of scum about it, immediately looking for a solid role claim.

That said all his logic is really solid and it's a whole hell of a lot more likely that he just likes haikus at this point. Definitely not enough to accuse of scumminess yet.

[themanhimself]

I'd have to agree with that, trying to play off a vote like it's a joke is pretty scummy to me

[themanhimself]

Hanzo and Llamarble

I guess I didn't clarify quite enough earlier but me bringing up CN's poetry was not a fish for a role on my part, but rather me trying to point out that this seemed like a town allied restriction considering the theme of this game, i.e. the people who have invaded the Jersey Shore (at least on the tv show) are not exactly poets by any means. If we can work from the idea that CN is either faking a role restriction or legitimately has one which leans towards town, then that informs our vote overall and helps avoid a mislynch. Really my goal was the same as Llamarble's in that I was trying to generate a discussion which could lead to an intelligent vote. I don't think anyone could try and extract a PR out of a role restriction as simple as that even if they wanted to and at this point in the game I don't see why anyone would want to.
I see his poems as perhaps as a role restriction rather than just being witty because not only was his first post written in that form, but so was his additional correction. That said there's no evidence either way about whether he's faking it or not and the evidence is so limited about whether he was just being witty that I wouldn't go so far as to say he definitely wasn't.

Guthrie

I don't see how any post at all of mine seems like I'm going to flip votes, particularly the one you pointed out as it was still discussing possible scumminess on Hanzo's part. In fact, I've only cast a single vote this entire game and I wouldn't say I've ever come close to seeming like I was going to flip. I at one time briefly analyzed CC in a light that may have cast some scum, but I made it clear at the end that I did not find him actions to be scummy nor did I believe him to be scum. In fact, that entire post goes right along with my initial post about chaotic neutrality in the 'merely encouraging light debate and not really calling anyone out' category.



The reason I never changed my vote from Hanzo is that he's simply acting the scummiest. Every point CC brought up was totally valid and in Hanzo's response he did a fairly poor job of countering those points beside the fact that the vote he cast at the end is clearly not fueled by any valid points (that he's brought up at least) that make CC seem scummy. Voting for retribution and not reason is the scummiest tactic there is and even if it isn't it's dumb enough and harmful enough for the town side to warrant

confirmVote:Hanzo_5

.

[themanhimself]

I'm also having a really hard time finding any point at which carrot made a case against me at all so I'm really unsure what scumbuddy vibe you're picking up on here, besides using it as clear misdirection from your own scumminess.

[themanhimself]

Jase,
Allow me to clarify once more, I wasn't looking to determine a role for CN, but rather an alignment which is pretty much the point of the game. Never did I say, let's figure out his role or I wonder what his role is, I said he's writing in poems, that seems to reflect a role restriction, what do you guys think about that? Never was it my intention to find out any specific role or night power, just a simple alignment. I think this is pretty well supported by the fact that that is all I've mentioned.

Hanzo,
Simple miscommunication, I misread what Guthrie said about me thinking about the flip as me thinking about flipping, i.e. changing my vote. Re-reading made the mistake clear to me.


Currently I'm still feeling Hanzo, the whole 'lynch me and see what happens' reeks of last hail-mary for scum to me.

[themanhimself]

So Guderian, what is your reason for voting me? All I got out of your post was that you disagreed with my opinion that Hanzo was the scummiest and that I agreed with CC too much. It doesn't seem to me that either of these are very clear indicators of anything at all.

[themanhimself]

Guderian

My reasons were the same ones outlined by carrot. I felt that his first vote, his joke joke against xsrk and the way he's been acting since accused are all scummy. I was going to let it drop a little since I think it's a good scum tactic to lurk and he doesn't seem to be doing that, but then he went and claimed vanilla townie which is all sorts of scum. Rain said his play looked like that of a panicked n00b and I say it looks like the play of a n00b who just happened to come up scum. I don't have much of an opinion of Guthrie but I think that speaks for itself. Like I said, I think it's a good scum tactic to lurk and pop up only to join bandwagons and stir the pot which is *exactly* what Guthrie has been doing since we started. If it wasn't for Hanzo's awful roleclaim, I would consider a guthrie wagon with a little more evidence.

Hanzo

Your first defense post was just more ranting in my opinion and your second one was at least a little more detailed but it frankly lost all steam when you claimed vanilla townie on the first day without a role claim request. That's just ten different kinds of scummy.

Llamarble

I can see why you may have questioned the initial popularity of the Hanzo wagon, but after that role claim surely you see some reason to cast a more suspicious eye on Hanzo, right? Also, people have been calling me out for siding with carrot quickly and without much explanation besides that I agreed with him/her (can we get a clear answer on that one?), but I would like to point out that I was one of five to jump on the Hanzo wagon and I gave as much reason as anyone did. Guthrie, Internet stranger and chkflip all jumped on without much explanation as well.


Now, as I pointed out before, I find it extremely scummy to come up and post once in a while then die back down. It takes attention off of you and helps you keep out of the fray that you start. I think carrot may be falling in this category to me right now. Starting a big argument shines the light on someone else, then s/he doesn't come back to clarify or get mixed up in the ensuing ruckus and this is exactly what s/he has been doing. Combine that with my post calling out the haiku's and it makes me wonder....

FOS:carrot

[themanhimself]

Hmm, that's actually a good question hanzo, thought provoking at least. I would say that both you and carrot cake outlined your arguments on observations which are subjective to opinion and that my opinion was more represented by what carrot cake said. Essentially they're both reaches, but carrot is reaching in a direction that I see as more likely and more logical. Both of those posts aside though, I would say your role claim is the scummiest thing in the game so far.

[themanhimself]

Agreed. Lurk=scumtell

[themanhimself]

I don't believe you're trying to remain invisible but I don't find that, in your case, it clears you. I also said they were equally reachy and based on opinions and I happen to agree more with the opinions used to form carrot's argument.

[themanhimself]

@Hanzo, I agreed that you appeared to be not trying make a splash when she initially posted that and at that point it was true. Now that you a trying to avoid being lynched, of course you would counter everything she said and begin posting more. Besides the fact that so many posts have personally called you out that you have no choice but to respond or be lynched.

[themanhimself]

Now hanzo, that seems to me like you're trying to back down from your role claim now which is another scum-tell. I assure you that I don't believe you to be mafia because you're a relatively new player (according to his info Guderian is actually your junior), I believe that the mistakes you're making are textbook for a new player who drew scum.

When people thought (incorrectly) that I was rolefishing, they jumped on me about it because revealing roles first day is only to the advantage of the scum, even if the role revealed is just a powerless townie it's the process of elimination. So if you are town then you just hurt everyone except. If you're not, then you decided to grab a roleclaim before everyone else did and you picked the only town role that you know for a fact to exist. That reeks of scum. If someone else role-claimed vanilla townie without provocation on day 1, I would be incredibly skeptical of them as well, the fact that you're a fairly new player adds very little (though admittedly some) to the suspicion.

For the record, you have yourself said that my last few posts (all of which pointed to you as scum) were based on fairly sound logic AND when you roleclaimed you prefaced it with how scummy it was. Clearly you have some idea of the impression we're getting from you as you've acknowledged it several times, yet for some reason you continue to act in a scummy manner.

I'm ready for your elaboration whenever you are Hanzo though I find it odd that you waited.

[themanhimself]

The Case Against Hanzo

Don't pay to much attention to carrotcake's vote on me she's silly and doesn't have the slightest clue of the super dee duper smartyness of my voting campaign.

1. Took a vote against him a little too seriously in the RVS. Scum would react this way because of their guilty conscience.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: xsrk

for

No vote yet.

2. Voted against xsrk for the no vote which seems like someone trying a little too hard to be town.

I didn't even notice... I might have to st

eal

this whenever I get a chance to play mafia.

3. He's going out of his way here to say that he isn't mafia. This seems scummy for the same reason as number one, overcompensating because he knows he's guilty.

I have to be super aggressive (as per usual) for anyone to think i'm town

4. This is not true on any level and shows once again his overcompensation. Thinking that he has to prove himself town implies that he's not.

In my mind you are scum number one.......

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Carrotcake

5. The first thing any liar does is make counter-accusations and utilize misdirection which is pretty much what this entire post was about. If he's lying, then he's not town, if he's not town then he's scum.

At least

give a reason as to why this is an OMGUS vote, instead of leaving me in the dark and putting no fact backed thoughts into peoples mind.

6. The reasons that this vote was OMGUS were plainly clear and I believe this quote falls under the counter-accusation, misdirection heading again. More scumminess.

Everyone, I'm getting the vibe from you all that my innocents is only proven upon dying and flipping townie. If you are all in agreement with this Lynch me now. If the flaws i pointed out in ccs argument are that weak, and my case against carrotcake is that OMGUS. Lynch my ass, what do u have to lose. If carrotcake is right and im mafia ur good. If carrot cake is wrong and i'm town... What I think is the strongest case i have ever presented is merelt "meh" to all of you and who needs a townie like that anyway?

7. Just asking people to go ahead and lynch you and see what happens is a plan B gambit that reeks of the desperation of scum knowing he's about to get lynched. Even if he were town, this post is just plain unhelpful to anyone.

I'm ashamed at myself for posting like a big ass baby, crying "lynch me then". I'm unimpressed by my first defense for its admitted "hard to read" impression.

8. After we called him out on these exact points he immediately went back on them. If he were innocent then his points should have been valid and true to begin with and there's no reason to try and take them back. When I was accused of rolefishing I never took anything back, I merely clarified until people understood what I was trying to do. Cops always know they're on the right trail when their suspect begins taking things back.

3)themanhimself, reasons:
For semi role fishing, for being in a agreement with carrotcake on a psychic level,

9. More counter-accusations and misdirection. It was clear when I referred to the psychic thing that I was talking about my first random vote coincidentally landing on him. This seems like someone trying to stir up the pot in a different direction to take the heat off of themselves.

I am tempted to point the FOS at all of you that thought carrotcakes logic was sound

10. More OMGUS, this time directed at almost half of the town. How could 5 out of 12 people all be anti-town? That's very nearly a majority (and far more scum than we could realistically expect in this game) and a majority essentially *is* the town. This again falls under counter-accusations/misdirection.

Also you are right I'm vanilla townie, I'm claiming it. I'm sure someone will find that scummy

11. I'm sure the vast majority of us find that to be scummy. Vanilla townie is the weakest claim and the most suspicious. Roleclaiming on day one is not advisable and only helps the mob. The fact that he acknowledges this seems scummy and then does it anyway clearly implies that he's scummy.

I see your point on the claim, any claim is scummy.

12. Agreed. See point 11. If he knows this is scummy, then what possible reason could he have had for it? No one prompted him for a role claim at all.

It is my hope that you will realize what an active poster I am and that its not some epic game long counter

13. Doesn't any counter essentially have to be game long?

That is if i survive day and night 1.

14. This seems like he's trying too hard to be town by emphasizing how he's at risk of being killed at night 1 just like anyone else because he knows that mafia are in little danger of being killed at night 1, besides the possible inclusion of a vig which I won't speculate on for a variety of reasons.

when a real case is presented on an actual mafia player, I can count on u to not be swayed by it

15. A clearly baseless counter-accusation design to take the spotlight off of him.

i will elaborate on this later. pleas do hold me to that elaboration.

16. Still waiting on this elaboration, seems as though he's trying to get our minds off of him without actually having anything to do it with.

I see my mistake in claiming a particular town

17. This is a clear implication that he could have claimed something else if he wanted, a standard scum trait.


I think is more enough for a day 1 lynch and we're at -2.

[themanhimself]

Guthrie, you didn't answer my question, can you just say that your not going to answer it so i can make it even more direct.

18. Counter-accusations and misdirection rather than tackling the actual point. Maybe he won't explain himself because he can't because he's scum.

[themanhimself]

Valid question.

[themanhimself]

Why would I need a defense if you flip town? I saw what I saw and I brought it all up for everyone. I was just one vote against you out of seven, we all had our choice of who to vote and we think you were the scummiest and that's not a random call, I still think you're scum.

[themanhimself]

CN, that's a fair point. He wouldn't have any reason to lie now. Doubtless though, a self hammer helps only the mob by decreasing the amount of townies. If you know it's a mislynch then following through on it only hurts the town. I agreed that you should be the lynch as I said before, but that was based on the info I had. Given more time, more info would have arisen leading to a more educated decision, it may still have been a lynch on you, but it would have been an even more justified one or perhaps an entirely different lynch altogether. After all, there were cases to be made against carrot, Guthrie, llamarble, almost all of the active players. By cutting short that discussion you keep us from making an informed decision, regardless of whether it's the right decision.

[themanhimself]

The first people I want to talk about tomorrow are carrot and Guthrie. I'm highly suspicious of both of them right now. Carrot for falling off the face of the earth after stirring the pot and Guthrie because

Guthrie has so far carefully followed everyone else's lead and stayed in the shadows. He's not helping the town, he's not scumhunting, he just plays a sheep. He just exists. Town need to actively scumhunt to win. Scum merely need to survive.

This is stuff is true and it raises questions about his previous play.

[themanhimself]

@ post #108, my post #99 was supposed to quote hanzos post #97 which is why post #99 makes no sense

[themanhimself]

Hmmm.....

[themanhimself]

I want to examine the lurkers more than anything right now

[themanhimself]

Internet stranger, why do the scum need to stall? I would think it's to their advantage to have short days because that's one of the only times that they're vulnerable.

[themanhimself]

Don't oversell your case Guthrie, it's not 100%. that said, what IS said about scum hunting seems pretty anti-town.

IS, my question wasn't about towns that don't post, but about towns that vote too quickly. It's possible to have every member of the game be an active poster and still go three weeks just debating. The question is, why is a quick day with active posting like we've had, good for the town? Particulalry in light of day one where we moved very quickly and mislynched.

[themanhimself]

Llamarble,
I guess I haven't been clear yet but I think it's IS. What I'm worried about is lynching too quickly again and he's already 2 away from a lynch. That and the fact that I'm really suspicious of carrot cake right now are really what's keeping me from putting my vote down yet. I mean IS's strategies are clearly anti-town at best, but I would like to see what he has to say in the way of defending himself before I do anything solid. As far as carrot goes, popping up on day one to start a bandwagon and then disappearing and coming back on day two with nothing helpful is pretty scummy, but again, I want to see what she says first.

Also, I don't generally find chkflip to be the scummiest player by any means, but this one off post is just really suspicious to me,

Holy crap, no bueno. I'm re-reading as we speak... but I can't say that I'm seeing anything worthwhile as most of it is smoke up a VT's ass. I'll report back with questions as they come to me.

Internet stranger, you're two to lynch, what's your defense?

[themanhimself]

Wow, that was the worst post I've ever read. Internet stranger just might get us all killed, completely regardless of his alignment. I mean, half that stuff is just plain irresponsible and I don't think he ever once actually made a case for him being town.

VOTE: Vote:Internet stranger

[themanhimself]

Whoopsy, VOTE: Internet stranger

[themanhimself]

Hmm, I kind of get the feeling that chkflip is trying to draw attention away from IS. IS makes the most ridiculous post of all time and Guthrie and I start to call him on it and all of a sudden chkflip comes out of nowhere to derail that entire line of thought with this Jase thing which I don't see as having a whole lot of merit. And to top it all off chkflip starts going over the top with it calling Jase a pissant so that we're all concentrating on that little feud rather IS. I hate to repeat myself as many times as I have on this one, but that's classis misdirection right there. I'm really feeling an IS/chkflip mob right about now.

[themanhimself]

-I'm not sure what you brought to the table or how or where IS refuted it and I can't find anywhere where jase declared himself to be town

-what's totally out of nowhere?

-Misdirection with no basis, jase and I have actually been on opposing sides several times now

[themanhimself]

Wait, wait, where he said he was town because his name an acronym for jersey ah so excellent? You're kidding me, right?

[themanhimself]

VOTE: chkflip
you're trying to look town by seeking out things you can comment on and use to fake scum hunt but none of it makes any sense. If your logic is that weak I don't see how you could possibly think jase is scum, which means you're looking for a mislynch which means you're scum.

[themanhimself]

VOTE: carrotcake
Chkflip, your reasoning makes no sense and you may very well be a goon, but I thought about it and re-read everything and I think carrotcake is the godfather.

Carrot shows up on day one and starts a bandwagon that turns out to be a mislynch. Then she disappears and comes back on day two saying she had no idea that day one had even ended. Lots of people have called her out for starting a mislynch bandwagon and for lurking, both of which are valid points. But let's consider this for a moment, why did night one last until the very deadline? Why was CN killed? If carrot is the GF then she's responsible for sending in kills for the mafia to the mod, if she was unaware that day one had ended (it was awfully fast) then she might have been unaware it was night and not sent in a kill which caused the deadline to drag on until the limit. It doesn't state in the rules what happens if a night action is sent in, to the best of my knowledge there are three main options.
A) it's randomized, which makes sense because CN was not a super controversial character and had really only called out one person, Guthrie
B) the choice is mailed in by the goon, which might be incriminating for Guthrie, someone who has been accused of scumminess several times and has been lurking for well over a day now
C) there is no night action, if that's the case it pretty much sinks my theory since we clearly had a night kill.

That's my current opinion, there's more but it's not ripe for discussion yet

Mod note: If a player has a night action and does not send it in, that will result in no action.

[themanhimself]

EBWOP: That narrows it down to B or C

[themanhimself]

Yeah, I did think about that but the first one had a clear reason, the second one was based on developing events and the third one was from something I hadn't stopped to think about yet. I think all three votes have merit honestly but carrot is the only one I'm 100% on for several reasons.

[themanhimself]

Hmm, llamarble, I may have jumped the gun by introducing an argument with pieces I wasn't fully ready to disclose yet. But like you said, carrots defense against what I did say is perfectly sound, but there are other factors at play which fully convince me that carrot is not only scum but is specifically the godfather. Lemme gauge a reaction from some more people before I get into greater detail, but I completely understand that I'm going to have to make my entire case known before a lynch is at all reasonable and I plan on doing that if we get to that point.

[themanhimself]

If I turned up town in an investigation. It's sort of likely that I am, indeed, town, and not a godfather, if a godfather does exist.

Completely agreed. That would no evidence whatsoever and is not what I intend to bring up.

[themanhimself]

In games with multiple families or other roles that can kill at night (such as the Vigilante), the Godfather may also be immune to being killed at night.
Source

some mods have been known to give Serial Killers extra abilities, such as making them immune to either some or all night kills
Source

I'm a vigilante and last night I attempted to night-kill Carrotcake. Obviously, he survived the attack somehow. This could be attributed to one of several things:

A) He's the Godfather. As the MafiaWiki states, if a game has a vigilante then the Godfather is likely to be immune to night kills.

B) He's a serial killer. Again, as the MafiaWiki states, serial killers are likely to be night kill-immune due to the difficulty of the role.

C) He's some other type of night kill immune role. Within the realm of reasonable speculation this could be a doctor who protected himself or a bullet-proof townie. A doctor who can protect himself is a rare role so this is unlikely. So are bullet-proof townies and the confirmed existence of two vanilla townies also seems to downplay the odds of this occurring. Other NK-immune roles are also fairly rare so I see no reason to speculate on that possibility.

D) The doctor protected him. I see this as unlikely due to two factors. The first is sheer odds, a doctor successfully protecting someone out of ten possible choices when there are two kills is incredibly unlikely. Secondly, it's even more unlikely when the possible protectee was a lurker who led a mislynch and who had been discussed as possibly scum several times the previous day, right up until twilight was over.

I understand that I'm risking being night-killed by claiming a town power role, but I know what Internet Stranger seems to forget, which is, if the town wins, ALL of the town wins, even those who have been killed. If I am night-killed at least I took the godfather down with me and significantly increased the chances of a town win and therefore of me winning.

I also know that I called out Hanzo for role-claiming, but a VT role-claim gives us absolutely no new information, particularly from someone so close to being lynched. I'm role-claiming with both the intent and ability to help the town significantly.

[themanhimself]

The only other possibility I see is that TMH was roleblocked. Which I don't think happened, A or B seem MUCH more likely.

I forgot about that, but it falls under mostly the same argument as point D.

[themanhimself]

TMH, if CC turns out to be town, would be we justified in pretty much auto-lynching you tomorrow?

No, that's stupid, that's what encourages lurking and people not contributing which is something you yourself have admitted to hating more than anything

[themanhimself]

@xsrk,
Yeah, I'll do that, unless for some reason I really strongly disagree with that persons scumminess. And doctor protection would be *awesome*

[themanhimself]

Llamarble,
I'm not 100% sure what bread crumbing means but I'm hard pressed to find anywhere that I may have hinted at any type of power if that's what you're getting at. Your logical argument is frankly fascinating and I've read it three times now. My question would be, since it makes sense to lynch CC either way, why hasn't your vote changed? To clarify, I'm NOT calling you out for this, I have no problem with more thought being put into a vote, I just wonder why.

[themanhimself]

Keep scumhunting of course, if we don't hit it today then statistically speaking either I'll hit it tonight or we'll hit it tomorrow

[themanhimself]

3.) Let's theorize on the setup. A mafia familiy, a serial killer, and a vigilante. Is beyond a doubt broken, and swingy as hell for a twelve player game and is totally unlikely.

Wait a minute, I said serial killer OR mafia and now you're saying both. We all know there's a mafia so it seems to me like you're assuming there's a serial killer. Sounds like a mistake a serial killer might drop to me.

[themanhimself]

Was a busdriver considered, either? A thought that popped into my head just now.

First off, a bus driver seems highly unlikely period, then the odds that they would target Carrot are pretty low. And that's not even getting into the fact that we should have two kills (or possibly three, particularly in light of Carrot's little slip) per night but we only had one. Bus driver doesn't really solve any part of that problem, though it is a nice out-of-the-box idea.

Of course im trying to scare TMH with retribution. If TMH is scum, he wouldnt have outed himself so early on with this little gambit knowing that I would assrape him for it the next day. I cant imagine that he would go through such lengths to protect Jase on the second day. And he could have gone after a better target than CC, since CC is acting like scum all over the place so far. The only way it would work as scum was if he was clearly suicidal.

So if he is a townie, the threat of retribution should make him think twice about what he is doing. But, he seems adamant that he is onto something. No one is going to follow me in lynching Jase today, so ill try again tomorrow. In the meantime, this little ordeal is stealing all the headlines and there probably wont be much way around it. So since I think its mostly sincere (albeit maybe misguided), I might as well go with it.

If you all want to pressure CC some more in the hopes of squeezing more juice out of her lemon (like this whole SK slip up of hers), then go for it.
I would recommend no one hammers just yet.

So you're saying I'm almost confirmed town, but that you would be willing to lynch me regardless tomorrow if CC flips town? I'm getting a lot of scummy vibes from how you're playing this whole situation. It seems like in the beginning you wanted to support it so when carrot flipped scum you could say you had voted for him initially, but then you tried to find ways to distance yourself from the wagon so you wouldn't have to vote for your scumbuddy. Eventually you see the inevitability and don't want to be the one left out so you jump back on. Highly suspicious.

Not to mention, if CC doesn't flip scum then I'm almost certainly dying tonight because there's no way I would get doctor protection and with a power role like mine the mafia are gonna want me gone. I'm not saying I'll necessarily make it if CC does flip scum, but I would feel more confident about getting some doctor protection then.

Perhaps you could shoot the person who gets the second most votes (or someone who you're pretty dang sure is scum), to verify your role...

Before that though, should we discuss who TMH should vig-kill or let that decision be at his discretion?

I'm definitely still willing to do this, but I don't want to name any possibilities until twilight starts, because that could affect the dynamic of the game and the votes too much, it could confuse the whole town in a pretty negative way. Let's wait until somebody hammers.

Also, keep in mind that there's a fair chance this will be my last night-kill, so let's make it count.

I am willing to hammer.

I would recommend no one hammers just yet.

First, IS, this adds to my theory that you're scumbuddies with CC. Secondly, I'm fairly confident this is going to happen today so I'll just let you guys hammer when you want. I'm totally fine with getting it over with so we can move on to twilight and discuss NK possibilities, but we did get some (possibly) valuable info out of CC earlier so I'm also fine waiting to see if anything else is forthcoming. Like I said, I'm pretty sure we all realize this is the most solid evidence we'll get (short of a positive cop investigation) so I'm confident it will happen. I'm in no rush and I've no particular desire to wait. Up to you guys.

[themanhimself]

EBWOP: However, if no one is going to contribute anything until a hammer happens, then someone might as well go for it.

[themanhimself]

I won't know who I'm targeting tonight until we lynch and see how CC flips and until I get a feel of what the town wants during twilight.

I didn't take your quote out of context, I even restated your reason for wanting to wait to hammer in my argument as sound and fair.

I'm taking shots at you where I feel you deserve them, I'm not trying to set you up for a lynch. Though your play has been suspicious, I strongly believe CC is going to flip scum and you have been on the wagon for most of the time so I think you're likely town. But I stand by my suspicions as reasonable and I'm not saying you are town, just that where we stand right now it seems likely enough.

I've never understood the Jase bandwagon and I don't think I will until we get a new player in his place (if he makes it that long, that is). I think CC is a far more clear candidate in light of the evidence I put forth and so it was a no-brainer to put him up for now and see what happens from that.

Coming out was not ideal and I said that when I did come out, but I think it was worth it for what we got out of it. This is a good starting place to fuel scumhunting for the rest of the game, particularly when CC flips godfather.

[themanhimself]

Because I'm handing over my power to the town, not you. If I'm not doing that then I'll just use it on my own and I don't see Jase as the scum around here. The mod could lock it at any time but if we start discussing names then that's gonna change votes which is gonna change the game. I don't have to listen to anyone about my NK if I don't want to so be glad I'm offering to take a concensus at all.

[themanhimself]

There are ten players. I'm one and carrot is one so that leaves eight. Of those eight there are four people voting for carrot. If there were a doctor who protected carrot or a roleblocker who RB'ed me, we can assume that even if they didn't claim (which is probably smart for them and for the town overall) that they wouldn't vote for carrot. That leaves Llamarble, Guthrie, Jase and Rain. Llamarble seems to be for a carrot lynch so we'll exclude him. Rain has already stated it wasn't him and he's for the lynch as well but doesn't want to hammer too quickly. Guthrie hasn't posted in a good week so we can't say anything definitively about him but he was seeming scummy. Jase has also requested replacement and was also seeming scummy to a lot of people. If we assume three mafia and carrot as godfather then that leaves the next two scummiest players as the only ones not on this vote. It would also make sense that since this vote has grown so quickly, the doctor and (possible) roleblocker knew they hadn't done anything which confirmed carrot as scum so they quickly jumped on. Regardless, if it isn't carrot, then that makes either Guthrie or Jase (two of the people most accused of being scum so far) the doctor or roleblocker respectively which just adds to the improbability of the doctor/RB-preventing-a-kill scenario. It's clearly Carrotcake.

[themanhimself]

You could hammer here Llamarble.

[themanhimself]

Hmmm... ok, well carrot was scum so that's good. Not a godfather though which makes me suspect a mafia doctor.

I'm now really confused about my role because I targeted Guthrie/mr. wright last night......

VOTE: Mr Wright

Lynching the person I targeted but who is still alive worked yesterday so this is a good start. If there is a mafia doctor and MW was scum, it would explain almost everything.

[themanhimself]

Yeah, the extra kill is the 'almost' in my 'almost everything'

[themanhimself]

I agree with llamarble about guderian, I don't like his play at all, particularly today.

I'm voting mw right now but I'm considering going over to guderian because he seems likes he trying to play both sides of everything so he can't be caught off guard.

I'm gonna

unvote

and see where this goes. If nothing changes then I'm willing to hammer MW if someone else votes him, but I want to keep an eye on guderian for now...

[themanhimself]

@ Llamarble,
Me likey. Totes down for this. Sorry for the quick post, at work. Will pick a place to put my vote ASAP

[themanhimself]

VOTE: Guderian
If it's a Guderian, mr wright scum team, then it's far more likely that the power role (mafia roleblocker, busdriver, doctor, whatever) is Guderian because roles can almost never target themselves and it seems likely that Guthrie was targeted last night. If we knock out the power role today we could win this N3 with my night kill.

[themanhimself]

THEMAN, are you bonkers? For one, the logic makes no sense. A mr wright scum roleblocker could target you and negate your kill. Why do you brush over this when this is the entire reason you are voting me

Second, are you assuming just a scum triplet? No on seems willing or able to answer this. What is up with the two kills last night then?

I think mr wright is the scum rb and fishy is the sk. I think there is amble proof for this. I'm not sure why you're so quick to try and get a mislynch going here.

An MW scum-RB does requires a serial killer as well as scum and a vig which doesn't fit with night one having one kill at all. Really, what you just said is "bonkers". It makes no sense and is clearly an attempt at misdirection.

Scum triplets are most common in 12 player games, the numbers just work out really well. How would having three scum change the number of kills? One scum family is one night-kill regardless of how many scum are in the family.

How am I trying to get a quick mislynch going by jumping off the wagon onto someone with no votes? That makes no sense and seems to me like you're over-exaggerating the votes against you because you're more aware of them because you're scum.

[themanhimself]

I also *really* dislike the way you put your own name in green on a lot of levels.

[themanhimself]

I really don't see fishy's quick hammer as scum at all unless he's a serial killer, which I think is a really slim possibility. Why would scum quick hammer scum? That makes absolutely no sense. If carrot had flipped town it would have been an entirely different story, but since he turned out to be mafia it's the move that would make the

least

sense for fishy. I find anyone who calls out fishy for this to be super scummy themselves since it basically boils down to defending proven scum.

IS, I loathe to utter these words, but you're right. A mr wright lynch makes more sense today because lynching guderian would be assuming that mr wright is scum when it isn't yet proven. I don't want to quick hammer again though so let's at least get a role claim out of him first.

MW, your entire argument against me is that I can't prove my alignment so I might as well be a serial killer. That makes no sense at all. In fact, all of the odds are in favor of me being pro-town. I caught scum, I (mostly) proved my night ability and I targeted someone that was heavily believed to be scum on D2 and was at one point not far from a lynch. It's not a smart move for a serial killer to target mafia after he's claimed vig because then he has no explanation for why the game is still going on after the last scum has been lynched and he's still getting a kill per night. Not to mention, I put out my case against carrot cake at a time when I was barely under any suspicion at all. You say I pushed a quick wagon but all I did was outline the evidence and cast my vote, the rest was five other players and their votes. I could have waited two weeks and six days to claim but for all I knew we could have been well on our way to a mislynch by then and if I felt certain that I had scum, then why would I hold out on that info? If your argument is applied more broadly it essentially implies that no one should start making cases until the day is well under way which is clearly a mislynch breeding ground and also a rule you yourself have violated by making three different cases so early in day one. This reeks of the desperation of scum trying to wriggle out of their own lynch as does your calm, cool and reasoned appeal for someone to unvote you so we're not so close to a lynch.

[themanhimself]

Let me rephrase that last line, so close to

your

lynch.

[themanhimself]

Though going into bayes' theorem here might be a little overkill, you can't expect every single player to keep up on their conditional probabilities as well as you obviously have, the general thought that the post in question is not helpful to the town at all is a valid one.

And yes, you are bold.

Preview edit: not mentioned in my role description and I'm not eager to find out frankly.

[themanhimself]

@Guderian,
But with a target switcher there's not an unexplained kill last night

[themanhimself]

MW, your argument is hugely flawed. Though I cannot account for the lack of a busdriver (I'm sure llamarble will be able to come up with something, he's better at that than I am), that's your entire argument for me being a serial killer. The simple fact of the matter is that I would have no reason to lie about targeting chkflip, I several times said that I believed he was scum and was voting him for a while as well. In fact, a chkflip NK probably would have been supported going into N2. There's simply no reason to lie about it.

Furthermore, Scott is an experienced mod, there's no guarantee he's completely bound by the no-busdriver rule, though I would admittedly find it weird if he wasn't.

Once again you did not role claim and since you keep trying to re-direct your guilt onto me I'm oh-so-willing to hammer. We want a role claim MW, further stalling will be seen as a scum move.

[themanhimself]

I'm now really confused about my role because I targeted Guthrie/mr. wright last night......

The simple fact of the matter is that I would have no reason to lie about targeting chkflip

slip much?

I don't see how this constitutes a slip at all really, I targeted Guthrie, but if I had targeted chkflip I would have had no reason to lie about it.

[themanhimself]

But you claim chkflip and xsrk were helpful players and would be hard to lynch players and that's where I find fault in your argument. Xsrk lurked which makes him both suspicious and non-helpful. Chkflip played incredibly suspiciously and was already under the scrutiny of several players. Again,

I would have had no reason to lie about targeting either one of them.

Your role claim is completely unhelpful, your attacks on me are without merit, you've yet to actually argue against your own scumminess (merely trying to point it out in others) and you survived my NK-attempt which led us to scum yesterday so I'm going to go ahead and hammer here.

VOTE: Mr. Wright

[themanhimself]

Were you town?

[themanhimself]

Oh, and thanks for replacing, awards should be given to all replacements, the whole site would crash without them

[themanhimself]

I killed Guderian last night. If there are two scum left (assuming a three scum family) then lynching me is game over. If we lynch me then that presumably leaves one town and two scum tonight, the scum kill the townie and win. We either have to lynch scum or no lynch for the town to win. Our best shot is for me to hit scum tonight.

[themanhimself]

Until I have reads on people, VOTE: No lynch.

@mod
Do we need a full majority (3 people) or just half (2 people) to do a no-lynch? I couldn't quite understand the difference between majority and full majority in the rules.

[themanhimself]

Thanks for the clarification

[themanhimself]

So fishy, what was your carrot hammer about?

[themanhimself]

On behalf of everyone I'm sure, huge thanks to Scott for running a really, really fun game. I had a great time and would sign up for that game again in a heartbeat