Mini 1084: The New Jersey Shore (Game Over)

[Llamarble]

Vote: Carrotcake

For being one of the few foods I don't like.

[Llamarble]

Let's get things moving!

Hanzo voted chaotic neutrality, then moved his vote with nothing happening in between except xsrk announcing a non-vote.
@Hanzo: why did xsrk's non-vote merit your vote?
Did the other vote on xsrk impact your decision?

@Carrot: why do you think Hanz's vote hop was scummy?
Did the other vote on Hanz impact your decision?

I prefer to see the reasoning behind votes if it's not immediately obvious.

My first nonrandom vote goes to:
VOTE: themanhimself

His "why the poetry" post looks driven by scum-goals.
He hypothesizes post restriction and then asks for other ideas.
I don't see anything coming of this other than discussion of special roles, which helps scum.
It also seems strange to me that a special role would be his first guess rather than "he was being witty;"
scum are more likely to have "PRs on the brain" so this strikes me as a scum thought process.
Scum are also likely more likely to emphasize being part of the team with word choice such as "we."
Finally, his post has a strong feel of "trying to look useful without being so."

[Llamarble]

I have more to say later, but for now I'd just like to point out that

Hanzo is at L - 2

[Llamarble]

I remain suspicious of TMH.
TMH so far has:
Made a post that looked primarily like an attempt to look town without being useful.
Made a post stating one of carrot's actions could possibly be interpreted as scummy, but saying he doesn't find carrot particularly suspicious.
Sheeped carrot's reasoning for voting Hanzo.

It all feels like a player who is trying to look like a scumhunter without really making any waves.
The man himself (haha) mentions having made multiple posts "encouraging light discussion without calling anyone out."
His voteconfirm on Hanzo came after Hanzo started flailing, so it looked to me like scum wanting to be on a good mislynch target.

The Hanzo bandwagon is kind of confusing to me right now.
Carrot's reasoning, on which it was founded, is decent get-us-out-of-rvs reasoning, but I feel like it's getting more respect than that,
especially from Hanzo, who has done some flailing, and TMH, who called it well thought out in every respect.

[Llamarble]

Xsrk manages to be pretty scummy despite a mere 2 posts.
First he chooses not to participate in RVS.
That doesn't help the town get toward meaningful content and reduces opportunities for other players to read him.
Next he decries lurking as scummy despite his own post count of 2 and outright refusal to participate in RVS.
He also gives a summary of action without any actual scumhunting, merely saying he'll be keeping his eye on bandwagons if they almost or do lynch someone (!).
He even mentions he is suspicious of the players everyone else is suspicious of, which just looks like opportunistic scum preparing to help push the easiest lynch.
That said, he is apparently a very new player, which excuses some of these such as a misunderstanding of the value of RVS voting.
And while lurking and saying lurking is scummy is a double standard, I don't think that has a significant bearing on whether he's scum.
His keeping an eye on list looks very opportunistic regardless of his experience level though.
@Xsrk: please read, decide who you think is scummy, and vote them with an explanation.

[Llamarble]

Our deadline is December 6th!
The more discussion we get, the better we will be positioned going into day 2, so we should use most of our time.
Basically nobody hammer.
Also I don't buy this wagon.

[Llamarble]

Explanation of why I don't buy the Hanzo wagon and continued case against TMH:

TMH no longer falls into the "trying to look like a scumhunter without making waves" category.
I think this is deliberate on his part; he decided that it would look scummier to get off the Hanzo wagon after espousing its virtues than to keep pushing it.
Hanzo's flailing/roleclaim in particular have made it look like the wagon on Hanzo might succeed, doubling the scum-incentive to continue.

His giant "reasons Hanzo is scum" post includes no mention of Carrot's initial "spreading votes around" accusation.
He previously called that allegation very solid and good logic on two separate occasions, so it is inconsistent that he didn't even mention it.
Scum are inconsistent because they forget why they believe the things they pretend to believe in.

He has been strawmanning my accusations against him by focusing on the rolefishing aspect and referring back to it several times to make it sound like he has defended the case against him successfully.
Also, I'm still not convinced he wasn't rolefishing with that early post.
You don't have to say "Herp derp X are you the Y?" to rolefish.
You just have to prompt discussion that scum can potentially glean PR tells from.
I believe early discussion of a post restriction (which you called a "role restriction," further making a PR discussing response likely) has that potential.
So does your "Maybe carrot was preparing a role-claim but gave up" post, as scum could use a response from Carrot to guess at his role.

Now on to the points against Hanzo:

Much of it can be boiled down to overreacting/throwing accusations around when accused.
I think "why are you voting me with this BS case OMGUS" is not a scumtell.
Town are indignant about being wrongfully accused.

I pick up indignant newb townie flailing vibes rather than desperate scum flailing vibes from Hanzo.
The "I'm ashamed for flailing, let me try to be a little clearer" post felt genuine.
When I read over the two defense posts, they seemed to be consistent with each other despite the first being more poorly worded.
If you can show specific examples where he said "my reasoning was this" and then later said "actually my reasoning was this"
I'll agree you've found something really suspicion worthy.

An early roleclaim is poor play for either alignment.
TMH's statement that he's "trying to get his claim in early before everybody else does" doesn't make sense, particularly since he didn't claim a PR.
It seems much more likely that Hanzo simply didn't realize claiming early was anti-town until it was explained to him, and his responses have been consistent with that.

A few of the points are decent.

He does go out of the way to say he's town several times.
Particularly the "ooh, when I'm mafia maybe I'll try that" post is scummy.
The "pls lynch me" bit seems scummy because players can be expected to know that the day shouldn't end within the first week so their request won't be acted on.

Overall I think the case against him is substantially overstated though.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: TheManHimself
I thought he was scum yesterday and the fact that he was pushing the wagon on a player who indeed turned out to be a lynchable townie only adds to that.
While it's important to get lurkers talking, lynching lurkers / inexperienced players is an easy way for scum to get mislynches.

Don't give him credit for never moving his vote; it got there randomly and was confirmed after Hanzo started to look like he might get himself lynched.

I felt that a lot of the evidence being leveled against Hanzo was null, as I pointed out yesterday, so using it to push the lynch of a townie is scummy.
Specifically an early roleclaim is poor play for either side, so I see it as a null tell.
Also all the OMGUS / flailing can be the reaction of an indignant townie or of desperate scum.
The initial Carrot reason (being last to vote not on top of another random vote) is just as easily coincidence too.
Those were major pillars of his case against Hanzo.

He is hunting, but I think he is lynchabletown hunting instead of scum hunting.

Everyone else on that wagon, especially those who joined up after it started to really look like it might lead to a lynch, deserves close scrutiny too for being pro-lynch on a townie with dubious evidence so early in the day.
Much of the reasoning against IS is good.
What I want to hear from IS is what he was expecting Carrot to say and how he would have responded.

Both TMH and IS have had weird interactions with Carrot.
TMH said during twilight that he wanted to talk about Carrot / Guthrie first thing, but didn't mention him
Carrot also has various FOSes on him but nobody seems to want to lynch him.
Often scum will FOS: Scumbuddy, vote: townie to do some distancing while keeping their vote off their friends.

TMH so far today has just asked a couple of general questions of IS, presumably in an attempt to look like he's hunting and at the same time saying "Guthrie don't overstate your case," defusing pressure against IS.

Carrot saying he would have stuck with a Hanzo lynch puts him in the same category as the other two as being on the townie lynch for reasons I find dubious. He did stir the pot and disappear, if only for 3 days (this is why short days are bad). His most recent post points out another example of Hanzo being inexperienced, but not particularly scummy.

Thus I think the scumteam is TMH/IS/Carrot

[Llamarble]

I realize it's harder to get a wagon going against scum (fewer willing voters), but seriously why is nobody considering my case against TMH?

Lately he has jumped on yet another bandwagon (of IS) against a player with a lynchable playstyle (and thus a potentially easier mislynch).
After that, he outright defends Jase, who has been coasting.
A town player would let the poked coaster defend himself to get a better read.
Votes Chkflip for making a weak case against Jase, then turns around and makes a weak case himself.

The recent exchange between TMH and Carrot continues to make me think they're scumbuddies.
TMH makes a weak case against Carrot which sets Carrot up to easily defend suspicions which have been raised against him.
I think they choreographed it last night while deciding who to NK, since TMH's post simultaneously:
Tries to look town by claiming no knowledge of scum mechanics
Distances from carrot by accusing him
Makes a weak case setting up Carrot to look more town later.

He said
"Don't oversell your case Guthrie, it's not 100%. that said, what IS said about scum hunting seems pretty anti-town."
This is cautioning.
Scum always want to look worried about the town making mistakes like mislynching or quicklynching,
so long as they can get away with it with out actually preventing those things.

Then he goes and says Carrot is 100% scum after making a weak case against him and then having a main point refuted.
I think he forgot points B and C had nothing to do with Carrot because he isn't actually trying to figure out who the scum are.
This also invalidates the cautioning he was doing about similar play earlier, suggesting he was just doing it to look town and forgot about that too.
If he really cared about case overstatement he wouldn't do it himself!

Carrot's defense is pretty convincing as a refutation of the nightkill logic, but that could have been planned out as well as a way to get towncred out of the NK.
It doesn't change the fact that he was on the mislynching wagon, nor does it change his lack of activity while that wagon came to fruition.
I could certainly imagine scumcarrot checking in, seeing the big wagon and deciding not to post for awhile considering the quicklynch possibility
(several players on the wagon said they would hammer if they could).

Overall, I think Carrot and TMH planned their nightkill and early D2 discussion.
It looks artificial on TMH's part especially in several places.
This is especially likely given TMH's "I want to talk about Carrot/Guthrie tomorrow" toward the end of D1.
So he probably already had the idea during twilight, then shared it with his scumbuds at night.

[Llamarble]

In view of TMH's latest post, I agree about TMH/Carrot likely not being scumbuddies.
I eagerly await TMH's promised "fully convincing" case.
Until then we can only continue speculating about possible scum/teams.
Xsrk could be plugged into almost any scumteam right now and make sense.
He's been lurking and futzing about.
TMH actually joined the IS wagon and then jumped off before much changed,
so I think TMH/Jase actually looks more likely, depending on the nature of TMH's Carrot case.
TMH defended Jase and seems to intend a Carrot wagon.

[Llamarble]

Hrm, this is a fascinating and complicated situation.
The possibilities as I see them are:
A: Carrot is NK immune / targeted by some kind of protective role
B: TMH got roleblocked or otherwise interfered with at night
C: TMH is gambiting scum, hoping to ride an "oops guess it was a roleblock after all" into a scum victory.

C is supported by the single NK last night, suggesting no vig to counterclaim, and TMH's prior scumminess, but I'll need to reread and do some thinking to see if C makes sense. Expect a post on that tonight.

I believe Carrot should roleclaim if he has an NK immune role, but not otherwise so that we can at least rule out that possibility or reduce our options to "CC is scum or CC is NK immune town."

I doubt any town protective role would have targeted CC last night; he was looking pretty scummy to a number of players at that point.
A mafia doctor or similar targeting scumbuddy CC would make sense though.

B seems reasonably likely, since TMH looked scummy in the wake of the Hanzo lynch and might have been a town RB target.
TMH, did you breadcrumb anywhere / do anything that might have attracted a scum roleblocker?

I think if CC doesn't claim a town NK immune role and the TMH scumgambit hypothesis looks unlikely we lynch CC since even though B is plausible, B doesn't mean CC is town, only that he's not confirmed scum.
That means P(CC = scum | TMH accusation) = P(any random person = scum) * P(Accusation | carrotscum) / P(Accusation)
Obviously P(Accusation | carrotscum) is higher than P(Accusation) assuming TMH is actually vig and will accuse only if A or B happened.
That means P(CC = scum after TMH accusation) > P(random player is scum) so we should lynch CC.
If a player actually claimed roleblocker with a target on CC that would reduce the possibilities down to B, but even then Carrot isn't less likely to be scum than anyone else, so it's not worth outing a town PR to stop his possibly-justified-anyway lynch.

[Llamarble]

I was hoping Carrot would claim bulletproof townie or something similar, since that would at least essentially confirm truthtellingTMH.
I didn't vote Carrot immediately because I wasn't sure about how likely a TMH fakeclaim was.
Evaluating the fakeclaim possibility, it makes sense to me that TMH might be fakeclaiming here.

Best case for TMH if he is scum is we lynch Carrottown, then tomorrow we no-lynch due to mylo,
and the next day we are at lylo with TMH having an uncontested claim on an important town PR and the ability to just say "Guess I got RBed."

Ensuring a mislynch is a pretty big deal; even if we do lynch TMH tomorrow following a towncarrot flip he's managed to trade himself for several townies and left us at mylo after a couple of predictable days (it would be hard to get information from who was on Carrot/TMH's wagons today and tomorrow since the logic for being there isn't simply reads). This ploy works particularly well for GF TMH because towncarrot likely earns an investigation (A cop is likely if TMH is not actually a vig) of TMH, which GFs want to look innocent.

The only way this works out really badly for TMHscum is if somebody had counterclaimed Vig today.
In that case he just gets lynched (after the real vig if he's lucky) or vigged by the real vig , and given the 1kill and perhaps some of their own PRs (an investigation immune GF would suggest a cop and make a vig less likely, for example) the scum might have been able to guess about whether or not there actually is a vig.

Carrot's logic was that if TMH is really a vig, then since a mafia family is a safe assumption an SK is unlikely due to swingyness.
That is a legitimate point, and suggests GF as the plausible scumrole for Carrot.
That reduces P(Carrotscum) a bit, but P(Carrotscum) is still higher than the likelihood for anyone else if TMH is telling the truth.

Overall it looks like fakeclaiming vig would be a strong play for scum in this situation if the scum are reasonably sure there is no vig to counterclaim and a scumbuddy such as Jase or IS were under attack. It would be a super ballsy/clever move though.

Lynching VigTMH would be worse for the town than lynching towncarrot, though that is another factor making a fakeclaim more likely.

I don't think night actions will help us resolve TMH's alignment (since either he or Carrot is likely the GF), so I think our move for today is to lynch carrot and be extremely suspicious of TMH tomorrow if carrot flips town. I think a town doctor or RB claiming in lylo if they caused TMH's carrotshot to fail would exonerate TMH though, so that makes the bothofthemaretown situation less devastating for us.

SK TMH is unlikely since he is likely to get investigated, especially if Carrot flips town, which is death for an SK.

[Llamarble]

Yeah, I think the worst case scenario right now is a scum roleblocker on vigTMH and a town Carrot.
Said scumRB would definitely hop onto the carrot lynch.
Then after a towncarrot flip there would be nobody to exonerate TMH tomorrow,
which basically leaves us screwed if a 1/8 (assuming there is a scum RB or similar role) thing happened.

[Llamarble]

I don't like 2 short days in a row. More content helps us get better reads and thus is pro-town.
We have time; let's let fishy do a catch up post and hear a roleclaim from carrot beyond "not NK immune."
We can also talk about who we think scumbuddies for CC or TMH depending on CC's flip are.
We've mostly talked out the possibilities here and I do think Carrot is the right lynch, so you can expect me to hammer eventually.
TMH being scum is the main alternate possibility, but Carrot's flip will give us a lot of information about that.
If carrot flips town and nobody claims to have interfered with TMH's shot, TMH is likely (chance of a scumPR interfering is ~1/8) to be scum and thus we should lynch him.
If we got unlucky, then I guess we lose, but we can't lynch everyone.
If carrot flips scum, TMH is pretty much cleared.

Unvote

[Llamarble]

Um, mafia doctor wouldn't explain 2 deaths last night, which definitely requires explaining.
I assumed when I saw the deaths that Chkflip targeted you N1 and you targeted Xsrk or Chkflip N2.
Maybe there's a target redirecting role, or maybe an SK (which would imply TMH got blocked again)?
Or the mafia/town have extra killpower?
SK, mafia bonus killpower, and 1shotvig or other additional town killpower all seem less likely.

Right now I'm thinking N1 Chkflip RBed TMH,
then followed along for the carrot lynch to avoid outing himself / because Carrot was no less likely to be scum than anyone else.
I think the most likely thing to have happened N2 is a redirecting role, since additional killpower beyond scum / vig seems like a lot.
Redirecting actions targeting Guthrie onto Xsrk (or killing Xsrk and redirecting onto Chkflip) is weird, because xsrk was scummy.
Maybe scum redirecting role thought they saw PR tells from Xsrk and killed / redirected onto him?
I would have thought a town redirecting role would send actions targeting someone town-looking to someone scum-looking.
Guthrie didn't look very town as he kind of ignored the carrot wagon and was pro Hanzo wagon.
Scum redirecting role would likely send actions targeting scumbuddy off to townie.

Thus I think the simplest / most likely scenario, assuming TMH actually tried to target MW,
is that Chkflip RBed TMH N1 and Guthrie or Guthriescumbuddy redirected TMH's action off Guthrie/MW onto xsrk or Chkflip N2.
Scum with redirector power seems reasonable to balance town roleblocker + vig.
If the redirector power has

Guthrie was also scummy before this business (ignored carrot wagon, pushed Hanzo wagon), so
VOTE: Guthrie

Guderian did some fuzzy math that painted TMHscum as more likely than Carrotscum.
I think the main misleading assumption he made was that there was a 100% chance of TMH claiming vig D2 if he was scum.
And yet he didn't get off the wagon despite his conclusion being that TMHscum was more likely than Carrotscum.
Maybe Guderianscum figured if the wagon did lynch he didn't want to be caught off of it?
This looked like bussing while hoping others would defuse the wagon for him based on his math.
He also called for more time before hammering, which looked like scum hoping for a defense of Carrot to catch on before a lynch happened.
He was also pro Hanzo quicklynch / L - 1 on that wagon.
He seems like the most likely other scum to me.

[Llamarble]

Oops, VOTE: Mr. Wright

[Llamarble]

It's unfortunate Chkflip is dead; he likely RBed either TMH or an SK N1 and we could rule out his D2 target as an SK.
Time to go back and read for who he likely targeted.

"The only other possibility I see is that TMH was roleblocked. Which I don't think happened, A or B seem MUCH more likely."

This makes me think Chkflip probably didn't target TMH N1 and finds TMH being roleblocked unlikely because he had roleblocking power and didn't use it on TMH.
He also later mentions the possibility of a busdriver; presumably he suspected his RB might have been moved onto TMH from somewhere else
My best guess for his N1 target is Guthrie, the first person he mentioned finding scummy after N1.
A busdriver is plausible and could explain TMH's being RBed night 1 and killredirected night 2 (a situation that doesn't require an SK to make sense).

If I had to guess at his N2 RB target, I'd say Jase given his belief Jase was scum expressed during the day.
That would rule Jase out as SK, but A: we can't confirm that and B: Jase could also be mafia who didn't submit an NK.
Still this makes it somewhat less likely fishy is some kind of scum.


Assuming Chkflip did not target TMH also makes the mafia doctor scenario with an SK reasonable. (and a maf. doctor seems like a way to balance out vig+SK)
A mafia doctor targeting CC and then Guthrie makes a lot of sense, and it would mean 3 mafia and an SK unless Guthrie self targeted,
which mafia doctors can't normally do as far as I know. 2 Mafia and an SK makes sense if Guthrie is an NK immune SK.
In these cases, the night actions could be explained by:
N1: Maf doc protects Carrot. Chkflip RBs Guthrie or some other PR interferes, preventing another shot. Third shot goes through on CN (or CN gets shot twice).
N2: Maf doc protects Guthrie or Guthrie is NK immune SK. Scumshots succeed.
So Guthrie is scum here.

My other occam's razored out possibility is:
A: Scum busdriver exists and has been targeting Guthrie
Chkflip's RB on Guthrie N1 gets redirected by scum busdriver onto TMH, explaining his D1 nokill.
Chkflip RBs someone else N2 (possibly Jase).
N2 scum busdriver redirects TMHkill off Guthrie onto xsrk or chkflip, so this explains the 2kills and TMH's target not dying.
Scum NKs CN N1 after he attacks Guthrie, so this explains the first NK choice.
Scum NKs Chkflip after seeing the "Maybe there's a busdriver" and "I don't think TMH was RBed" posts (explaining NK 2) or xsrk for some other reason.

In this case Guthrie is probably scum being protected by a scumbuddy busdriver (who usually target a scumbuddy especially to mess with cops).
This case doesn't call for an SK to make sense, which makes it more believable IMO.

If I've puzzled this very complicated situation out (and guessed Chkflips night 1 action) correctly, Guthrie is likely to be scum of some sort.

If I'm wrong about Guthrie, it means
A: Chkflip RBed TMH N1 and a doctor or bulletproofness or similar protected town Guthrie. Something else stopped the SK N1. Seems not especially likely.
B: Mafia RB or similar role stopped the second TMH NK. Chkflip or maf RB stopped first TMH NK. Something stopped first SK NK. This still requires an SK to make sense and a mafia doctor is both more likely to protect carrot and makes more balance-sense with so many NKs around. Again, farfetched.
C: TMH is actually the SK and came out as vig D1 for town cred expecting a GF lynch and is now seeking to make us chase shadows by pretending somebody else is SK (which would confirm him as vig). Why wouldn't SK TMH just claim responsibility for killing the scummy xsrk or perhaps chkflip though?

There are other possibilities, but none of this seems as plausible as the 2 above which imply scumguthrie.
My best guess for Guthrie's busdriverbuddy or docbuddy is Guderian, who seems to want a fish counterwagon.
Therefore let's lynch MW.
I'm ready to hear his claim.
No quickhammer today please; I want to look for evidence for or against Guderian/Guthrie/Carrot scumteam.

[Llamarble]

WOW, I just read through Carrot/Guderian/Guthrie and OMG THE SCUMLINKS!
Carrot mostly spent his time pushing the Hanzo lynch and rolefishing after he was outed,
but before that he also defended Guthrie, calling the case against Guthrie "flimsy."
Guthrie avoids mentioning both Carrot and Guderian almost entirely and pushes wagons against Hanzo, TMH, and IS instead.
He never even mentioned the Carrot wagon after TMH came out.
Guderian calls Guthrie "The scum driven alternate wagon to Hanzo."
Guderian pushed the Hanzo wagon (he was L-1) and the IS wagon.
Look at his scumlist!
"To put at the top of my list would be Internet Stranger on the Wagon, and xsrk off the wagon, with one mafia outstanding."
His other candidates there are Jase, Rain, and Llamarble...
No mention of Guthrie or Carrot, who had been mentioned by other players as scummy.
He claims he's going to reread Guthrie, then never mentions any results of having done so.
He also painted TMH as likelier scum than carrot after TMH came out and revealed carrotscum...
And he gave up on the IS wagon as soon as it was essentially obvious carrot would die.
Today he wants a fish counterwagon!

Guderian busdriver eliminates the need for an SK since he bounces TMH's kill somewhere unexpected.
Guderian scumdoctor means there is also an SK, but scum doctor makes sense if there are a vig/SK around, so this possibility is reasonable too.

Carrot is goon, Guderian is scum busdriver or doctor, and Guthrie is the third scum (role unknown)!!
GG!

[Llamarble]

Bolded mine.

that is pretty good, except for the fact i'm not actually scum. You should rethink with that in mind. Anything less will be extremely costly.

Sounds like you're either threatening to NK me or softclaiming a mysterious super important PR. I find both scummy

I was wrong on some of those, and I'm not sure why you consider some people auto clears now and some not.

Who am I auto-clearing? I think you carrot and Guthrie/MW are the mafia, leaving IS or rain or Jase to be the SK. One of those could swap in for you as the busdriver or mafia doctor, but your posting makes it much more likely that you're the third scum. The only people I'm assuming are town are myself and TMH. And it's not that you have been wrong, it's that your posting has shown a completely consistent pattern of seeking to avoid Carrot/Guthrie lynches while pushing the alternate wagons to each of theirs, including using misleading math to attempt to paint TMH as a better lynch than carrot yesterday.

If we want to quote wall back and forth we can, It proves nothing.

What? Post analysis proves nothing?? This statement is borderline flailing.

I remain suspicious of TMH.

Xsrk manages to be pretty scummy despite a mere 2 posts.

TMH no longer falls into the "trying to look like a scumhunter without making waves" category.

Thus I think the scumteam is TMH/IS/Carrot

Carrot/Guderian/Guthrie and OMG THE SCUMLINKS!

What are these quotes supposed to show?

The fact remains that there is a scum team and prob a sk. Trying to argue away from this derails the town.

I'm not arguing away from this. I described what I think the most likely scumteam/SK scenario is. You're on the scumteam in that scenario.
I also described a likely scenario without an SK, and you're on that scumteam too.
Your assumption that there is an SK suggests you have proof there's one (you're the SK yourself, which Guthriescum doesn't rule out).

The fact that he acts like all my thoughts have to be wrong if he is town instead of saying "Good logic against Guthrie! You've just got the wrong guy as the doctor/busdriver" is even more damning. You feel you have to discredit my logic completely because you see that as the only way of saving yourself and your scumbuddy from dying.

[Llamarble]

I agree with IS. Rain makes no sense.
If he's assuming no SK/vig combo, then one of Guthrie/TMH essentially must be evil, so why isn't he voting them?
The hard evidence is indeed against Guthrie.
Guderian's RB scenario is plausible, in which case we have no night action information about anyone except TMH.
But just like with carrot yesterday if we have 2 cases, one in which player X is sure to be scum and the other in which all players are equally likely,
then we lynch player X, who is Guthrie here.
Posting/day behavior also implicates Guthrie, who as has been mentioned was both pro hanzo lynch and ignored the carrot lynch.

The only other lynch even worthy of consideration is Guderian, since he placed vote L-1 on Hanzo,
and used fuzzy math to paint TMH as likelier scum than carrot even while voting Carrot (!!)
If we were sure there was a scum RB and Guthrie being targeted had nothing to do with whether Guthrie is scum, I would want to lynch Guderian.
But since there are several likely Guthriescum scenarios and Guthrie is pretty scummy himself, I don't see how we have a choice.

[Llamarble]

By the way

Mr W is at L-1 now

No excuses for quickhammering today.
Also Mr. W should claim.

[Llamarble]

TLDR:
Guderian's math suggesting TMH was more likely scum than carrot made no sense.
And even though Guderian presumably thought it made sense (or was just scum making #^&*$ up),
he kept his vote on carrot to not look scummy.
Fishy hammered right after Guderian's math post which makes no sense to me as an intentional scum action.
I want to know what Guderian was actually trying to calculate there.


I am bold.

which part of my math did you find fuzzy?

You posted the following, implying TMH is likelier scum than carrot, on page 10, just before Fishy hammered.
Unless you and fish are scum together and he was trying to save you from yourself,
I don't see Fishscum quickhammering after a player makes a post implying his buddy is town.

None of the math done here is relevant / makes any sense.

And also, If i am correct, this setup has been reviewed by three competent players to ensure fairness and win-ability for all. Therefore, it is HIGHLY unlikely we would have three killing roles a night, i.e. SK mafia and vig. That would put town at LYLO potentially d2. I would think it is safe to say that there is no SK.

I guess you've changed your mind about that.

I also ran a few percentages about what I think of the current situations.
Carrot is in the mafia, is the godfather, and got targeted by the vig 3/10 x 1/3 x 10/10 = 10%

What you calculated here is that there's a 10% chance of having a vig nokill by targeting a GF assuming there's a vig and a GF.
This calculation doesn't say anything about what TMH/Carrot's likelihoods of being scum are.
The probabilities of a vig or a NK immune GF being in any given game are also not 1.
You also make different assumptions for all of your calculations that have varying probabilities of being true,
so your percentages actually have little to do with each other.
What did you expect to infer from them?

If you want to use probability to make inferences about players' alignments based on their actions, please use Bayes' theorem.
The probability of any random player being scum is about 30%, so your numbers are misleading.

Carrot is NOT in the mafia, got doc protected, and got targeted by vig 7/10 x 1/9 x 10/10 = 7.778%

Assumes a doctor exists

Carrot is NOT in the mafia, TMH got roleblocked, and got targeted by vig 7/10 x 1/9 x 10/10 = 7.778%

Assumes a roleblocker exists

Carrot is NOT in the mafia, no doc protection, TMH is the mafia 7/10 x 8/9 x 3/10 = 18.6%

Why on earth does doc protection matter if TMH is mafia?
This assumes TMHscum would randomly select a victim as opposed to taking Carrot's alignment into account, which is a terrible assumption.
It also assumes TMHscum will claim vig in this situation 100% of the time,
which is also a terrible assumption since this is not a standard scum play.

Anyway, it seems you think TMHscum is twice as likely as Carrotscum. Why vote Carrot then?

Carrot and TMH are in the mafia 3/10 x 2/9 = 6.66%

Again fails to take TMH's likelihood of choosing a townie when making a vig fakeclaim at this point.
The probability scumTMH does this to his partner is almost zero because he won't have NKs to prove his role and he loses a buddy.

[Llamarble]

The switching role is typically called a busdriver I think.
One explanation for what has happened so far is the following:
Mafia goon, mafia busdriver, additional scum of unspecified role
Vig, RB, misc unrevealed town PR
6 VTs

My read on Chkflip is that he targeted Guthrie N1.
Mafia Busdriver could have redirected Chkflips roleblock off Guthrie onto TMH.
N2 the BD could have redirected TMH's kill off Guthrie onto Chkflip or Xsrk.
That accounts for all NKs without the SK + Vig + mafia combo.
It does require Guthriescum.


Other players should read Chkflip too, since if there is an SK it seems likely Chkflip targeted them N1.
And MW should really claim.

[Llamarble]

Muahahahaha!
MW, I thought your defense was really good; I would have considered defending you had I logged in before you died.
I'm surprised IS didn't counterclaim against or shoot TMH.
I was afraid TMH would think "they'll roleblock me unless they expect me to target someone else" and shoot Fishy or me instead of Guderian.
I'm glad that gamble paid off.
I totally believed TMH was vig after N2 because there was clearly an additional killing role and nobody had counterclaimed vig, so I found IS' flip confusing.

Fishy/Jase was investigation immune not NK immune by the way, or at least that was what we thought.

[Llamarble]

I'm okay with our QT being put up if other players are interested.

[Llamarble]

Yep, the only bit of bad luck we had was TMH trying to shoot carrot N1 and Carrot getting lynched as a result.

[Llamarble]

I have no problem with it going up, but usually the mod waits for permission from all the scum?