Mini 1084: The New Jersey Shore (Game Over)

[Guderian]

Vote: Rain

I hate rain.

[Guderian]

It seems awfully early to speculate about that, I would easily believe he simply likes writing poems.

[Guderian]

Why is it OMGUS?

1. carrot makes a case on you.
2. happenings
3. you vote carrot.

do you think carrot is mafia for bringing up a case on you or simply misguided?

[Guderian]

reading this, first initial thoughts are: this Hanzo bandwagon has gotten A LOT of steam for page 2. People seem to be extremely convinced he is scum based on a few 'tells'. I dont like it at all.

I dont like themanhimself play at all in this game.

he role fishes twice, First on the 'poetry' and then

In other news I re-read everything and found a new interpretation of CC's first haiku post. What if he was trying to set himself up for a role claim after seeing chaotic neutrality's post and then realized writing everything as a haiku

this in itself isnt scummy but then,

The reason I never changed my vote from Hanzo is that he's simply acting the scummiest. Every point CC brought up was totally valid and in Hanzo's response he did a fairly poor job of countering those points beside the fact that the vote he cast at the end is clearly not fueled by any valid points (that he's brought up at least) that make CC seem scummy. Voting for retribution and not reason is the scummiest tactic there is

Is hanzo really acting the scummiest? I dont think so. Was every point cc brought up totally valid? I read that post, some were alright, some weren't. To say they were all good is either blindness, buddying or scummy. And then you say voting with no reason is scummy, when this is the extent of your analysis on Hanzo. It seems

you

are voting with very little reason. [confirm voting]

unvote

vote: themanhimself

[Guderian]

you lambaste Hanzo for voting with no reason when it appears from my perspective you yourself dont have one. (or a very good one)

[Guderian]

TMH, whats your opinion of guthrie?

[Guderian]

internet stranger, all you have done so far in this game is submit one sentence posts without much of anything.

would you mind posting what you think of the current wagon on hanzo and guthrie, in addition to other thoughts you may have.

[Guderian]

I see my mistake in claiming a particular town, and will refrain from doing so in later games, as it does add to the process of elimination. But since I did it here to repeat myself I won't by backing away from it.

This strikes me as rather interesting scummy. Why have you made a mistake in claiming a town? Are you implying that you would rather have claimed something else? Saying this implies you are mafia fake claiming a role. If you're a townie you're a townie, no need to worry about offending people by claiming it if you have to.

I don't like this.

[Guderian]

hanzo, what defense do you have against those points?

the fact you didn't respond much at all doesn't bode well for you. I currently see guthrie as the scum driven alternate wagon to hanzo.

unvote

vote: Hanzo_5

NOTE: L-1.

I was thinking the same thing internet. She/he shows up, makes a case and is gone. I would like to hear her opinion of where this has gone.

[Guderian]

lord I come back to see a self hammer. Like people have stated, this is perhaps the singular most anti town thing you could possibly do. Seriously. Half this town has barely posted. Its going to be very hard getting an reads going into day 2.

I guess I will have to reread guthrie.

[Guderian]

well what else is there to do.

We have 5 pages of barking back and forth about hanzo going into day 2.

You have a better suggestion?

[Guderian]

Have you even been in one of those towns where no one says anything? Where people just dont post and its usually just one person wondering where everyone is? Where the mod has to replace half the town?

No discussions, no mistakes, no scumhunting.

Its a fate worse than death.

What the hell is this? This is massive fluff, it doesnt advance the game at all.


I just read your iso as well, it is dripping with scum. The only time you sit fit to scumhunt/explain anything is when someone asks you directly. Half your posts are just comments on the game, and almost a third reference carrot cake. Instead of talking around her, lets talk about her. Do you think she is scum? Did you like her play? What about anyone else in this game? Why do you reference voting guthrie and a quick hammer again, which is highly detrimental to town?

Your play style doesn't appear to be one who has the towns best interest at heart.

vote: Internet stranger

[Guderian]

Internet, what I got from your post was a lot of rage and "follow me I'm right because.....?".

If I was inclined to unvote you, im steadily not anymore. You do realize that was about the least helpful thing you could have posted if you were town.

chk, why do you believe stranger?

[Guderian]

You haven't exactly won the hearts and minds of the town.

Why are you using ate and ad hominem arguments in your 'rebuttal'?

Do you think Internet stranger is scum? If so, why arent you voting him? If not, why did you respond like that?

Even if think his argument is crap, tell me why, not that fact that it 'is crap'.

[Guderian]

you realize voting three different people in the space of a page doesn't look very good because you appear very unsure/ indecisive.

That being said, I would like some more IS votes after more people have posted, which could be a while considering the thanksgiving break.

[Guderian]

If we go by the idea that not all three scum were on the hanzo wagon, we have these two groups of town members:

On: themanhimself, Carrotcake, Guthrie, Internet Stranger, chkflip
Off: Jase,

Chaotic Neutrality

, Rain, Llamarble, xsrk

with CN being town obviously.

To put at the top of my list would be Internet Stranger on the Wagon, and xsrk off the wagon, with one mafia outstanding.

I'm most interested in xsrk because he has three posts, one of which is a one line response to a random vote on him.

xsrk, what do you think of the internet stranger wagon?
Do you still believe guthrie is scum?
Which of jase, rain and llamarble do you consider most scummy?

[Guderian]

activity here went down the drain. yikes.

[Guderian]

xsrk, of rain and jase, who do you consider the most scummy

[Guderian]

theman, while I'm not a huge fan of your claim, I see where you are coming from. I feel it would have been better to try and get a lynch without outing yourself as the vig, but whatever. I do see some possibility of godfather. It would explain making a case and disappearing, seemingly unconcerned with how the day went. Being investigation proof would let you do a lot with impudence.

So it now seems unlikely that jase and carrot are scumbuddies together. It seemingly wouldnt make sense to lend weight to a wagon (jase) that may or may not of gotten of the ground.(will need jases response)

unvote

vote: carrotcake

IS just reads as town after his last few posts.

also, chk, I want an answer, then I will provide explanation.

[Guderian]

this strikes me as too town sided for themanhimself to be scum fake claiming. if he was scum why do it now?

I understand that I'm risking being night-killed by claiming a town power role, but I know what Internet Stranger seems to forget, which is, if the town wins, ALL of the town wins, even those who have been killed. If I am night-killed at least I took the godfather down with me and significantly increased the chances of a town win and therefore of me winning.

[Guderian]

I would like to get some response from other people before we hammer/ entertain the thought of a hammer.

[Guderian]

Would like to hear more from guthrie and the jase replacement.

I still feel strongly about the CC wagon, but I would also like to know If anybody has ISOed xsrk. I'm not liking what I see there.

And also, If i am correct, this setup has been reviewed by three competent players to ensure fairness and win-ability for all. Therefore, it is HIGHLY unlikely we would have three killing roles a night, i.e. SK mafia and vig. That would put town at LYLO potentially d2. I would think it is safe to say that there is no SK.

I also ran a few percentages about what I think of the current situations.
Carrot is in the mafia, is the godfather, and got targeted by the vig 3/10 x 1/3 x 10/10 = 10%
Carrot is NOT in the mafia, got doc protected, and got targeted by vig 7/10 x 1/9 x 10/10 = 7.778%
Carrot is NOT in the mafia, TMH got roleblocked, and got targeted by vig 7/10 x 1/9 x 10/10 = 7.778%
Carrot is NOT in the mafia, no doc protection, TMH is the mafia 7/10 x 8/9 x 3/10 = 18.6%
Carrot and TMH are in the mafia 3/10 x 2/9 = 6.66%

pure numbers. some other possibilities but did not see fit to go there.

[Guderian]

+5,000 scum points.

[Guderian]

Do people think that there are :

a.two mafia and a serial killer and a vig alive in this game? (in which case mylo)

b. Or do people think there is one mafia a serial killer and a vig

c. Or two mafia and a vig.

My personal opinion, which I would like thoughts on, is two mafia/ a serial killer and a vig. I intially ruled this out, but the death of the town roleblocker makes me wonder if the scum have one too, which would make sense to try and level out all the potential kills. I initially ruled this possibility (3 scum vig sk) out, but after reflecting on the possibility of cross kills and roleblocks it seems more likely.

In which case, I would suspect fishy to be a potential serial killer, and will look into Guthrie for the other mafia. fishy's, 'opps did I hammer lol jk!' seemed pretty ingenuine, and Im pretty sure a town would check the votes to be sure that they are not hammering someone on their first post. It also fits with the fact fishy wouldnt really care if he hammered, because town/mafia lynch makes no difference to him. (also possibly investigation immune)

for all these reasons

vote: FishytheFish

[Guderian]

what sides of what?

My play today? To what are you referring about? I am merely stating the fact that you have claimed vig but HAVE NOTHING to show for it. I'm pondering a few possibilities. What do you think about my thoughts?

[Guderian]

No, I am not moving from my fishscum wagon, which seems really obvious to me.

I didnt think so yesterday, but the night kills changed my mind. Do you think there are three killing roles, divided up among 2/3 mafia, a SK and a vig?

as long as we're clear on the fact once this is all over I will be anointed top scumhunter, with you getting the second place 'also ran' medal!

[Guderian]

So your conclusion is a guderian/mr wright/carrot scum team with no serial killer? why were there two kills in the night?

I want to hear more from wright and fishy and rain (

who has yet to post yet

), about their promised 'reads' and 'more content'.

[Guderian]

that is pretty good, except for the fact i'm not actually scum. You should rethink with that in mind. Anything less will be extremely costly.

I was wrong on some of those, and I'm not sure why you consider some people auto clears now and some not.

If we want to quote wall back and forth we can, It proves nothing.

I remain suspicious of TMH.

Xsrk manages to be pretty scummy despite a mere 2 posts.

TMH no longer falls into the "trying to look like a scumhunter without making waves" category.

Thus I think the scumteam is TMH/IS/Carrot

Carrot/Guderian/Guthrie and OMG THE SCUMLINKS!

The fact remains that there is a scum team and prob a sk. Trying to argue away from this derails the town.

[Guderian]

what are you thoughts about mr.wright?

Llamarble, The only way I see to save the town is not 'discredit your logic', but give you an alternative from my town perspective. I have said no where I consider guthrie/mr wright town, just the fact that nailing the serial killer will be a lot more beneficial then wiping out the last or one of the last mafia members.

also,

"Good logic against Guthrie! You've just got the wrong guy as the doctor/busdriver" is even more damning.

Why are you assuming three scum? This seems like outside knowledge of the number of scum. I'm not sure if there is one or two scum left in this game, and am not about to wildly speculate that there is a scum doctor and busdriver in the mix.

here is what I think the set up is

One Goon
One MAfia RB
ONe SK
ONe Vig
One Town RB
ONe more town pr
six townies

[Guderian]

THEMAN, are you bonkers? For one, the logic makes no sense. A mr wright scum roleblocker could target you and negate your kill. Why do you brush over this when this is the entire reason you are voting me

Second, are you assuming just a scum triplet? No on seems willing or able to answer this. What is up with the two kills last night then?

I think mr wright is the scum rb and fishy is the sk. I think there is amble proof for this. I'm not sure why you're so quick to try and get a mislynch going here.

[Guderian]

Hanzo

wagon revisited:

On: themanhimself,

Carrotcake

, Guthrie/wright, Internet Stranger,

chkflip,

Guderian, Hanzo_5

Off: Jase/fish,

Chaotic Neutrality,

Rain, Llamarble,

xsrk

Carrot Wagon:

On: themanhimself,

chkflip, Guderian, xsrk,

Internet Stranger, jase/Fishythefish

Off:

Carrotcake

, Guthrie/wright, Rain, Llamarble

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ONLY PERSON who was on the town mislynch who was off the scum lynch: guthrie/wright

unvote

Vote: Mr. Wright

[Guderian]

I know scum triplets are mosts common in 12 person games, thats actually what I expect. However, I see no other way to explain the two kills last night. And the death of a town rb seems to lend weight to the fact this game may have a lot of killing. I would not be surprised if there was a town doc as well. It is highly probable that chk rbed the killing scum or the SK n1, and there was some sort of mafia doc/doc protection as well, and n2 the SK and mafia killed someone and you got RB by the scum rb.

Clearly you dont know what I am saying about the scum numbers. It is unknown if there IS TWO OR THREE scum in the group if there is also a serial killer in this game.

either of these would make sense. 8:3:1, 9:2:1

[Guderian]

also, if i know I am 100% town, why In gods name wouldn't I put my name in green?

[Guderian]

which part of my math did you find fuzzy?

[Guderian]

Fishy:

@Guderian: about my reaction seeming "ingenuine": any reason for this? Saying I said 'opps did I hammer lol jk!' is a total misrepresentation of my post. I've explained why I made my mistake; I thought Llamarble had unvoted. If you don't think that's a credible mistake to make

No, I dont think thats a credible mistake to make. Reading the game is essential to town, not essential to you who just wants a lynch (whatever you are, the SK or mafia.)

[Guderian]

1. If anything, I implied carrot was a more likely scum, coming out with a higher percentage 3/4 times.

2. I have changed my mind on SK due to the unexplained night kill from last night

3. I also said

some other possibilities but did not see fit to go [calculate] there [them]

implying that there was the possibility of other things but did not want to waste my time with them. I have since been vindicated with the town roleblocker so I fail to see you point as it was speculated at the time as well.

4.

What you calculated here is that there's a 10% chance of having a vig nokill by targeting a GF assuming there's a vig and a GF.

Isn't that what we were assuming?

In conclusion, I ran a few simulations, DIDNT EXPLICITLY claim anything off them one way or the other, and left them out there for the public to see on day 2. Since CC has flipped scum, most of those go out the window, and I'm happy for that.

[Guderian]

If there is such a role that moves the target of your kill to another (which Is a possibility) I admit that there could be no serial killer and just a 3 man scum team. That would be true.

In which case the scum trio would be
goon
mafia doc
mafia switcher?

Is that what you're saying? I admit thats a possibility.

But to not speculate about SK could bring disastrous results.

[Guderian]

alright, a few things need to be clarified here.

Mr. wright, though you may have found a crucial flaw in llamarbles argument, you still have three votes on you and not so much a porposition of who is scummier than you are. I see this as a rather light strawman, Instead of refuting the argument why you ARE SCUM, you refute the fact that there is no busdriver.

If thats the case, what does it mean?

I'm not really sure of what rain has been doing today. In his last post he outlines :

Mr. Wright's argument is not flawed at all; in fact his "entire argument" is pretty compelling. However, all this does is reinforce (TMH != Vig && TMH == SK), not so much hinting Mr. Wright's innocence.

Suggesting the idea he thinks that TMH is a SK and MR. Wright is a the mafia. But lets look at his voting patterns of the day:

In either case he's clearly non-scum, so might as well treat him as town.
Vote: Internet Stranger

I agree with TMH, with less Guthrie/Wright and more Guderian.

Unvote
Vote: Guderian

Looks pretty scum motivated to me.

theman is kinda derping around today, but so far it looks slightly town sided. I see no reason for him to lie about his nightkill.

In conclusion I am back to think that there are three killing roles along with mafia and town docs and some roleblockers thrown in.

actually rereading wright for this post has convinced me of his scuminess again. Though llamarble needs to redefine his position.

[Guderian]

dont worry you're dead.

[Guderian]

Night actions?

[Guderian]

That was a shitload of killing power by the way. Were you assuming crosskills?

[Guderian]

Well by the time day 4 rolled around, the town had lost. Day 3 was make or break. I think IS claiming was the right thing to do, considering he was one shot. Would of made lynching TMH very easy. And with a cop still alive, I would of liked towns chances if we had lynched the SK on D3.

To bad no crosskills, which would of helped =___=.

[Guderian]

Would like to see it, why not. Always interesting.

[Guderian]

There were many gambits in play and they all seemed to fall the scums way. Well, live and learn.

[Guderian]

Actually, I would say that almost worked in your favor. Had carrot been shot, I think a lot more suspicion and talking could of taken place on that second day. Instead, we got the vig claim and a little bus and still some confusion in the town.

[Guderian]

Dont forget, Dead QT appreciated!

[Guderian]

erm scum QT. move along, nothing to see here -_-

[Guderian]

oooh, what secrets you hiding in there LL?

[Guderian]

agreed.