Open 263 - The Wild Life [Game Over]

[iamausername]

VOTE: silverbullet

Last time I played a Jungle Republic game, the player with a wolf avatar and wolf related name turned out to be a werewolf, so clearly the same will be true here.

Also, general question to everyone; would you prefer to lynch a werewolf or a mafia today?

[iamausername]

strategy: day 1 seer claim+ no lynch
night 1 seer dies
day 2 3 mafia claim, we cant lynch them , if we do , werewolves outnumber us = 1 chance to lynch werewolf
night 2 werewolf obs kills mafia
day 3 more chance to lynch werewolf
etc etc

lol

[iamausername]

drmyshottyizsik (4) -

silverbullet999, parknourie, iamusername, andrew94

VOTE: silverbullet

~So that's why I had that there....

[iamausername]

Andrew's ridiculous idea just might work. But that just shows he is trying to lead the game into convenient Mafia victory.

Surely these two sentences are mutually exclusive.

UNVOTE: silverbullet
VOTE: Erinyes

i gotta feeling

[iamausername]

Oh, this won't end well.

Vote: Erinyes

Good man.

[iamausername]

@jason: are you saying that andrew is more of a policy lynch/easy lynch than drshotty? If that IS what you're saying, can you somehow align that with, like, reality?

I'm wholly unfamiliar with either of them (or anyone else in this game besides jason), but it makes sense to me. The impression I get is that shotty at least attempts to play the game in a conventional manner, which is not something you could say about andrew.

jason is right, shotty is looking fairly scummy. Not as much as Erinyes, but he'd probably be my second choice at the moment.

Now, can we get on with lynching Erinyes?

[iamausername]

- OpposedForce is getting greedy and sticking his fingers in too many pies at once.
- shotty wagon doesn't smell good, though that doesn't necessarily make him town in this setup. I'm still pretty wary of it regardless.
- pretty sure chkflip is town.

maybe should lynch erinyes to prove to u guys

yes.

[iamausername]

i just ISO'd andrew, and look what i found. he has talked about his plan for half of his posts, and in the other half, merely said i think this person is scum, this person is town, etc. with NO CASE AT ALL. not even a reason for why someone is ranked more likely town or scum than anyone else. Andrew, please give reasons for your reads on people. Right now, he's looking like a mafia trying to blend in as town.

vote andrew

Your conclusion doesn't match your observations.

[iamausername]

i just ISO'd andrew, and look what i found. he has talked about his plan for half of his posts, and in the other half, merely said i think this person is scum, this person is town, etc. with NO CASE AT ALL. not even a reason for why someone is ranked more likely town or scum than anyone else. Andrew, please give reasons for your reads on people. Right now, he's looking like a mafia trying to blend in as town.

vote andrew

Your conclusion doesn't match your observations.

- How don't they match?

andrew is not remotely trying to 'blend in' with the town. He's quite clearly been drawing attention to himself in a very deliberate way since the game started. I'm not saying that that's a towntell, I think andrew would do that regardless of his alignment, because he obviously likes attention. But I think it's absurd to suggest that he is trying to blend in.

And as far as not giving reasons goes, he's hardly the only one doing that, as you have in fact noted yourself, so I'd like to know why smashbro is singling him out on that point.

- What's your case against Erinyes?

I'd like Guthrie to field this question, because his is the one vote on the Erinyes wagon that feels off to me. I'll happily explain why I think Erinyes is scum afterwards, but I want to see Guthrie make a case first, if he doesn't mind.

- What do you think about the cases against andrew and shotty thus far?

There's no case against andrew, just people calling for a policy lynch. Hell with that. The case against shotty is a lot better (specifically, jason has a strong meta argument), but I dislike most of the way that wagon grew.

- If you had a daykill, who would you use it on? Why?

Well, if I had that option, I'd save it for now, because Erinyes is being replaced, and it would obviously be worth seeing what the replacement has to say before taking him down.

vote: Erinyes

I believe you Andrew~

Nice vote hop. You going to give any real reasons for your votes or just going to keep subtly jumping from one vote to another?

Could you define the world 'subtle' for me?

I see him as mafia trying to blend in as town, because blah blah blah

Are you using the word mafia when you mean generic scum, or are you saying you think he's specifically mafia and not werewolf?

- You guys realize you have Erinyes at L-2 with absolutely no case on him, right? Simply lynching andrew afterward won't help us any either... what if they're both town? What then?

I don't know about anyone else, but I have no intention of lynching andrew afterwards if it turns out I'm wrong about Erinyes. And since all but one of the votes on Erinyes came

before

andrew made his silly "lynch me if I'm wrong" post, I would be surprised if I'm alone in that.

Also, I have a case on Erinyes, I just haven't told anyone what it is yet.

[iamausername]

@mod:

- Players who go for more than 72 hours will be prodded. If you are prodded and do not respond within 24 hours, you will be replaced.

- ...Erinyes hasn't been on in a week.

He's on it.

[iamausername]

Hey y'all I'm going to be V/LA for a couple of days. Back Monday morning.

[iamausername]

Back Monday morning.

Orrr I could get snowed in and not make it back until Thursday. That'd be fun.

I'll be catching up ASAP.

[iamausername]

First of all, some theory stuff I've been thinking about; we shouldn't bother with the claiming process in this game. There is only one power role, the seer. If the seer is forced to claim on D1, the wolves will kill him N1, simple as that. If the wolves are run up to a claim, they will claim seer. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that this is their best strategy. The mafia may or may not claim seer, there are pros and cons on both sides for them. But even assuming that they won't, the following facts are true:

2/3 of the people who will claim seer D1 will be scum.
A claimed seer is a dead seer.

So, if we lynch someone who claims seer - 1/3 of the time, we'll lynch the real seer, who would be dying on N1 anyway. 2/3 of the time, we'll prevent the wolves from finding the real seer, and lynch scum. I'm pretty sure the benefits of the latter outweigh the drawbacks of the former. Letting a claim save someone from the lynch only benefits the wolves in this setup.

---

Now, since Guthrie has vanished, I'm not going to get what I want out of him, so here is my Erinyes case:

Andrew stop trying to make it to where to mafia can win easilly you are just hard core claiming mafia

*Red cross* Incorrect. Hello? His original plan wanted the seer out first and afterwards the mafia, which are dangerous for end-game situations to the wolves. Guess what he is?

vote andrew

This is what gave me the initial bad feeling about Erinyes. The problem I have with this is that he seems to show no concern whatsoever about shotty's alignment here. He thinks andrew is obviously a wolf, he sees shotty jump to the weird conclusion that andrew is mafia, and he does't think to question what that might say about shotty?

Sorry, Iam. The correct feeling is at Andrew. But you may state it if you disagree that Andrew's plan is scummy (suggesting to sacrifice the seer D1) and pointless (rule #7). This vote is better than a random vote.

This post bothers me more. In particular, the wording of "you may state it" is really, really troubling - he's not interested in finding out why I disagree with him, which clearly a town player should be, he's just interested in making sure I state outright that I disagree with him, which suggests that he's looking to pin someone else to andrew, either because andrew is his partner, or because he earnestly believes that andrew is a member of the other scumgroup. (I think it's the latter.)

There's that. Scott's been better since he replaced in, though. There are other people I'd rather lynch at this point.

---

And the rest:

andrew - still haven't seen any case at all that shows why he is more likely to do the things he's doing as scum than as town.

chkflip - seems pretty town to me. His frustration at everyone's refusal to explain what the case on Erinyes/Scott is reads as entirely genuine to me. If Scott turned out to be scum, he'd be worth another look, because clearly a scumbuddy getting run up for no apparent reason would be frustrating, but there's no reason to lynch chkflip while Scott is still alive.
He also gets town points for drawing attention to the approaching deadline. He could easily have let us apathy our way to a No Lynch if he wanted, as scum. Although, on the other hand, the mafia probably want to avoid a No Lynch too, since they're just as vulnerable to the wolves' kill as town.

shotty - one track mind. I find his obsession with andrew to the exclusion of basically everything else to be extremely contrived. He's using "andrew claimed mafia!!!!111" as a crutch to avoid commenting on anything else. That said, he's recently brought park into the equation too, which is definitely a step in the right direction.

guthrie/david - i don't like his Erinyes vote. It doesn't fit. He was on board the andrew policy lynch train, but when that started to run out of steam, he jumped ship and joined the Erinyes wagon, but I don't see any indication that he actually sees any case on Erinyes, or is even interested in finding out what it is. I don't have any idea why Guthrie joined the Erinyes wagon, and I don't think he does either.
But david, on the other hand, I do buy his unexplained read on Erinyes, and actually, he's been pretty on the money about everyone, so he's probably town.

jason - cool guy. I would like to know who he thinks is scum, besides shotty, because he's been almost as guilty of single focus as shotty. But I do like how he's been trying to find out what the Erinyes case is.

OF - oh god no the bolding responses inside the quote tags. please don't do that. He seems pretty scummy to me. This is the new Erinyes, because I don't feel like explaining it at the moment. I'd like to know if anyone else sees it.

park - scum scum scum. There's been a whole lot of town not explaining themselves, which some (stupid) people will say is bad, because it gives scum free reign to get away with doing the same, but guess what? You can still catch them even when they're doing that. See: this guy. He's trying to hang with the cool kids, but he just can't pull it off. Because he is SCUM.

Andrew's ridiculous idea just might work. But that just shows he is trying to lead the game into convenient Mafia victory.

vote: Andrew94

Doesn't make any sense. How can andrew's idea work if it will lead the game to a mafia victory? He's trying to play both sides here, and failing miserably.

Some strange debates going on... i have no comment to make nor to follow anyone just yet.
Random vote stays on Andrew meanwhile...

Generally horrible post, but especially the fact that he calls his andrew vote a random vote, when it is clearly no such thing.

vote: Erinyes

I believe you Andrew~

So basically "I'm going to join the Erinyes wagon, but this vote is andrew's responsibility, not mine."

There is NO WAY anyone can be 100% sure about ANYONE except for themselves at this point.
drmyshotty and Andrew, stop babbling everyone with your ridiculous statistics.

As has already been pointed out, this directly contradicts several of park's other posts, both before and after this one, where he does exactly what he's calling shotty and andrew out for. He is being completely dishonest, and he needs to die.

shattered - it's amazing how he manages to stand out from the crowd as being stunningly useless, considering just how useful the average player in this game has been so far. I'm thinking someone should do some meta hunting to see if this "fuck D1" attitude is usual for him. I can't be bothered right now, but someone should.

silverbullet - he's just kind of there.

smashbro - obvobv town. He's putting in way too much effort to be scum in this lazy game.

UNVOTE: Scott Brosius
VOTE: parknourie

I could deal with a shotty lynch, but I think this is more of a sure thing.

[iamausername]

I actually thnk SV is likely shotty's partner.

Vote: SV

drmyshottyizsik,

Werewolf

, Lynched Day 1.

we hit warewolf so it was good for us... why would D1 have been bad and depressing for

you

hmmmm theories anyone??

unvote
vote:SV

This is actually a good reason not to lynch him, you guys. We want to hit mafia today. Like so:

VOTE: parknourie

[iamausername]

@Iamusername - Okay....? First tell us why it is ME who is "mafia". Not werewolf but Mafia you say? Why?

You are scum, for the reasons outlined in this post. Your interactions with shotty do not look like scum partner interactions, so you're not werewolf scum. Therefore you are mafia.

[iamausername]

VOTE: Shattered Viewpoint

Let's just get this one out of the way now.

[iamausername]

(I know I harp on this, but ending the day one week early was a bit soon IMO).

HEAVY SIGH

Don't be that guy. It's not 'ending the day one week early'. A deadline is a limit, not a fucking target. A majority of players decided that park was the right lynch -> that is the correct time to lynch him. No later. Just because we're allowed to take another week doesn't mean that we have to, or that there is in fact any reason whatsoever to do so.

this also applies today HINT HINT

[iamausername]

mafia = most likely smashbro

Maybe I'm wasting my time, but I'd like to know where this came from, because I've got smashbro down as one of the most likely townies.

[iamausername]

Everybody knows we're lynching him today, but it's not deadline day yet so we better keep discussing, because discussion is pro-town!

What did you have for breakfast today, jason?

[iamausername]

Would like smash/IAU to chime in.

~the only sleigh bells ringing
are the CLANGING CHIMES OF DOOM~

Gonna start a reread now to pin down that last scum. We're obv going to win, but it would be nice to make it a perfect victory. Also, I'm going to be V/LA starting tomorrow and continuing for a good week or so because Christmas, so let's see if we can't wrap it up before then, eh?

[iamausername]

Dear Santa,

I have been a good boy. I lynched mafia scum parknourie on day two, and werewolf scum Shattered Viewpoint on day three. For xmas this year I would like a jason lynch. I have reread day one and day two and he is the mafia.

- He claims that everyone pushing for an andrew lynch on D1 is scum, but then when a wagon appears on mafia scum Erinyes/Scott, who was a member of the aforementioned group pushing for an andrew lynch, jason says that he sees no reason to lynch Erinyes/Scott.
- He lets chkflip take the lead on opposing the 'baseless' wagon on Erinyes/Scott, rather than opposing it himself and risk creating a link between Erinyes and himself.
- He waits until a hammer has been dropped on Shotty, THEN posts an extensive case against parknourie
- He then proceeds to vote andrew at the start of D2 for doing the same dumb shit he's been doing all game
- He reminds us that he is totally not happy with the way park is playing, then votes SV for being obv werewolf
- He finally votes park, promising to stop bussing him if he tries posting something useful, but then park gets hammered before jason has a chance to unvote

Yours joyfully,

~iamausername

VOTE: jason

[iamausername]

Sweet.

Merry Christmas everyone, good job town.