Mini 1084: The New Jersey Shore (Game Over)

[themanhimself]

EBWOP: That narrows it down to B or C

[Guderian]

you realize voting three different people in the space of a page doesn't look very good because you appear very unsure/ indecisive.

That being said, I would like some more IS votes after more people have posted, which could be a while considering the thanksgiving break.

[themanhimself]

Yeah, I did think about that but the first one had a clear reason, the second one was based on developing events and the third one was from something I hadn't stopped to think about yet. I think all three votes have merit honestly but carrot is the only one I'm 100% on for several reasons.

[Internet Stranger]

Hey TMH, I like that better than the simple jealousy binge Guderian has against me.

But im pretty certain Jase is scum too. His reaction also cements it for me. At this point all im going to do is get drunk off my ass, watch some football and bang me out some turkey eating bitches tomorrow in a festival of thanksgiving debauchery. Then ill see what anyone else has to say if im not being detoxed at the hospital. If people were smart, they would agree that Jase is scum, but you never know. Maybe someone else has something more clever to say than, well, whatever a certain someone is saying.

I will keep the faith regardless.

[Carrotcake]

The Man - My Hanzo vote was obviously a means to walk us out of random voting stage. How everyone else followed was out of my control, in fact the speed and certainty of it all surprised me. I didn't push the wagon to completion. Yet it would seem the burden of accountability is on my shoulders. Which is fine, I thought he was scummy anyways. I don't believe what I've done is was a mistake. He lynched himself. Something out of my control, and that's mostly the reason day one ended as a bomb.

Lurking hunting this early, when there is a wealth of discussion, is an exercise in misdirection. And evidently exaggeration. Leaving for three days on day one, with nary a trace of activity, is considered dropping off the face of the earth. And being "100% scum".

It doesn't narrow it down to B and C, for it could easily be none of the above. There are so many things that could have delayed the night. The doctor might have been sleeping, the mafia wanted to discuss, the mod might have been on a date... That it's best to just leave such an unverifiable meta guess alone.


On chkflip - Yeah, that might be the obvious maf trap, but it isn't without merit. Whats suspicious is that you dumped if off as is, and you didn't look back at Chaotic's orignial points.

Spoiler: tangent

Assume we play rock paper scissors
If you win with rock you get 5 points
win with paper you get one
and win with scissors you get three

rock is the obvious, powerful choice
paper is the weak, tricky choice
scissors is the trickier than tricky choice

Against an opponent that throws randomly,

tossing a rock ninety-percent or so of the time, will win you the game.

Individually each choice is a wifom.
But the in the long term view of this, choosing the strong obvious choice, when protected by wifom. Gives you great odds of winning.
A lot of scum know this, and they will indiscriminately target those who target them, since they are anyways protected by wifom.

Don't worry about the above. It isn't whats happening here.
Chaotic's case against guethrie is flimsy. It made little sense when I read it, "Strange unexplainable feeling", hardly even counts for an attack. If Gue was scum, it's too weak and baseless to even note.
Chk looks as if he misread the situation, and consequently made non-existent reads on the scumtell. It confuses the town, but it isn't malicious.

[Internet Stranger]

Damn, you all just got schooled by CC.
Hey CC, you can feel free to vote for Jase now.

[Llamarble]

I realize it's harder to get a wagon going against scum (fewer willing voters), but seriously why is nobody considering my case against TMH?

Lately he has jumped on yet another bandwagon (of IS) against a player with a lynchable playstyle (and thus a potentially easier mislynch).
After that, he outright defends Jase, who has been coasting.
A town player would let the poked coaster defend himself to get a better read.
Votes Chkflip for making a weak case against Jase, then turns around and makes a weak case himself.

The recent exchange between TMH and Carrot continues to make me think they're scumbuddies.
TMH makes a weak case against Carrot which sets Carrot up to easily defend suspicions which have been raised against him.
I think they choreographed it last night while deciding who to NK, since TMH's post simultaneously:
Tries to look town by claiming no knowledge of scum mechanics
Distances from carrot by accusing him
Makes a weak case setting up Carrot to look more town later.

He said
"Don't oversell your case Guthrie, it's not 100%. that said, what IS said about scum hunting seems pretty anti-town."
This is cautioning.
Scum always want to look worried about the town making mistakes like mislynching or quicklynching,
so long as they can get away with it with out actually preventing those things.

Then he goes and says Carrot is 100% scum after making a weak case against him and then having a main point refuted.
I think he forgot points B and C had nothing to do with Carrot because he isn't actually trying to figure out who the scum are.
This also invalidates the cautioning he was doing about similar play earlier, suggesting he was just doing it to look town and forgot about that too.
If he really cared about case overstatement he wouldn't do it himself!

Carrot's defense is pretty convincing as a refutation of the nightkill logic, but that could have been planned out as well as a way to get towncred out of the NK.
It doesn't change the fact that he was on the mislynching wagon, nor does it change his lack of activity while that wagon came to fruition.
I could certainly imagine scumcarrot checking in, seeing the big wagon and deciding not to post for awhile considering the quicklynch possibility
(several players on the wagon said they would hammer if they could).

Overall, I think Carrot and TMH planned their nightkill and early D2 discussion.
It looks artificial on TMH's part especially in several places.
This is especially likely given TMH's "I want to talk about Carrot/Guthrie tomorrow" toward the end of D1.
So he probably already had the idea during twilight, then shared it with his scumbuds at night.

[themanhimself]

Hmm, llamarble, I may have jumped the gun by introducing an argument with pieces I wasn't fully ready to disclose yet. But like you said, carrots defense against what I did say is perfectly sound, but there are other factors at play which fully convince me that carrot is not only scum but is specifically the godfather. Lemme gauge a reaction from some more people before I get into greater detail, but I completely understand that I'm going to have to make my entire case known before a lynch is at all reasonable and I plan on doing that if we get to that point.

[Rain]

Separately, I can see a TMH-scum or a Carrotscum. However, I find it hard to believe that they're both scum, simply because when IS' wagon was taking off, THM's proposed counter wagon was CC. Between them, an IS-THM scumteam seems more plausible.

I'd support both of their wagons. IS' posting style is fine, but it lacks the aggression of a townie. THM vote hops so damn much. Also, I don't like the idea of discussing what happened during the night. It's extremely wifom-y.

As for the third mafia member... It's merely a guess, but I'd say one of {Guderian, Jase, Chkflip}.

[chkflip]

On chkflip - Yeah, that might be the obvious maf trap, but it isn't without merit. Whats suspicious is that you dumped if off as is, and you didn't look back at Chaotic's orignial points.

- It's actually CN's original posts that made me think that in the first place. I know it's not without merit, but I believe that the way Jase is playing to be scummier than the way Guthrie is playing, atm.

[Guderian]

If we go by the idea that not all three scum were on the hanzo wagon, we have these two groups of town members:

On: themanhimself, Carrotcake, Guthrie, Internet Stranger, chkflip
Off: Jase,

Chaotic Neutrality

, Rain, Llamarble, xsrk

with CN being town obviously.

To put at the top of my list would be Internet Stranger on the Wagon, and xsrk off the wagon, with one mafia outstanding.

I'm most interested in xsrk because he has three posts, one of which is a one line response to a random vote on him.

xsrk, what do you think of the internet stranger wagon?
Do you still believe guthrie is scum?
Which of jase, rain and llamarble do you consider most scummy?

[Scott Brosius]

Vote Count 8

Carrotcake (1)- themanhimself
chkflip (1)- Jase
Guderian (0)-
Guthrie (1)-xsrk
Internet Stranger (3)- Guthrie, Guderian, Rain
Jase (2)- Internet Stranger, chkflip
Llamarble (0)-
Rain (0)-
themanhimself (1)- Llamarble
xsrk (0)-

Not Voting (1)- Carrotcake

With 10 alive, it's 6 to a lynch. Deadline is December 13 at 11am EST.

Given the holiday weekend for some I'll be a little more lenient with prods. Come Monday I will prod all who need prodding.

[Guderian]

activity here went down the drain. yikes.

[Internet Stranger]

It will pick up on Monday. I'm waiting to hear from others first. I still say Jase is scum.

[chkflip]

- ^This. Also, if you check my meta, I'm horribly sick right now. Post more when it passes.

[Scott Brosius]

Prodded

Carrotcake
Guthrie
Jase
Llamarble
themanhimself
xsrk

Llamarble and themanhimself are more friendly nudges than prods as I said I would give a little cushion given the holiday, but if any of them do not post in thread by Wednesday morning, I will seek replacements.

[xsrk]

Internet Stranger and TheManHimself may have something to do with each other, though it may just be that he thinks he's town. (in fact, given everything, it appears to be the more likely of the two that he just thinks that IS is innocent). I see IS's argument against Jase, but it just isn't making a whole lot of sense to me - I may be misinterpreting it, but it would appear that IS is just trying to shift attention away from himself. IS and Chkflp were both on the Hanzo wagon, and it looks like IS's attempt to move suspicion over to Jase has met backing up from Chkflp as well. An IS-Chk link? That said, my past-voiced suspicions on Guthrie still remain, as will my vote, though if it gets close to the deadline and it looks like there's a stalemate in the voting I'd choose to lynch Internet Stranger.

[Guderian]

xsrk, of rain and jase, who do you consider the most scummy

[Llamarble]

In view of TMH's latest post, I agree about TMH/Carrot likely not being scumbuddies.
I eagerly await TMH's promised "fully convincing" case.
Until then we can only continue speculating about possible scum/teams.
Xsrk could be plugged into almost any scumteam right now and make sense.
He's been lurking and futzing about.
TMH actually joined the IS wagon and then jumped off before much changed,
so I think TMH/Jase actually looks more likely, depending on the nature of TMH's Carrot case.
TMH defended Jase and seems to intend a Carrot wagon.

[Carrotcake]

...but there are other factors at play which fully convince me that carrot is not only scum but is specifically the godfather.

We could dance around and pretend to ignore this, since it would be rolefishy. But it sticks out that I'm quite sure a lot of us have read into it.
If I turned up town in an investigation. It's sort of likely that I am, indeed, town, and not a godfather, if a godfather does exist.

[Carrotcake]

My views on Jace:
1.) Held a vendetta against lurking, and consequently chk, for a majority of day one. Understandable to some extent as chk was sort of active lurking. The vendetta continued day two, but now it's less about lurking, and more about chk himself. This leads me to believe that his day one lacked the genuine. He has lurked day two. Certainly he doesn't hate it as much as he thought.

This leads me to two conclusions.
a.) The lurker hunt was a persona. A guise to seem like a scumhunter.
b.) He perceived rudeness in chk's replies and things went personal.

2.) "Creating an alternate wagon is a pro-town thing to do".
Game-theory aside.

Chkflips short lived vote for guthrie might be distancing.

He brings in distancing.

Let's assume Jase knew that Hanzo was innocent.
Wouldn't an alternate wagon be distancing too?

/vote jace

Is it the old: "This is the scummy thing I want to do. Aha!, I'll project it to someone else!"


For my previous post.
Please don't claim thk. There is some small trace of wifom to protect you (or you might not need protecting).
This might be miscommunication, a slip, or breadcrumbing. But I feel that your Godfather theory is quite telling.

[Scott Brosius]

Jase has requested replacement.

[themanhimself]

If I turned up town in an investigation. It's sort of likely that I am, indeed, town, and not a godfather, if a godfather does exist.

Completely agreed. That would no evidence whatsoever and is not what I intend to bring up.

[Internet Stranger]

Oh I see. I got Jase locked down as scum and he prefers to turn tail and run instead of taking his scum lynching like a man.
I feel sorry for the patsy thats going to get strung up as scum in his place.

I dont intend to let up just because that Jase-scum is going to wear a different name.
Im thoroughly convinced that I bagged me yet another scum.

[chkflip]

@Carrot:
- Who's that last comment aimed toward?

@Guderian:
- Why would you ask a question like that?
- Furthermore, who do YOU think is more scummy?