Open 267- Lovers Mafia- Game Over

[DavidParker]

Confirm!

Done a quick browse, game got started pretty quick which I like. Shotty is actually semi-contributing to this game? That seems to go against his meta.. And seeing as I've only ever seen him play town and be useless...Hmm.

Anyways, that was just a quick observation:

Vote: Hiraki

His "first" post - Very wish-washy, doesn't really comment on much, just "observes" and doesn't take a stance.

Buddies to emp.

Plays the "I missed that post" card (A statement I have used myself as scum on numerous occasions when being caught out...)

#28: More wish-washy. "Jumpy can be scummy, and it could be just over-defensive townie"

I don't FoS Lateralus22 fully

What kind of a statement is that. For one thing, FoS's are meaningless, I don't even use them. So a "partial FoS". sounds like some retarded "hey lets try be town and show who i think is suspicious. However, i'll be honest, and say this quote could come from town just as likely as it could come from scum. It just struck me as crazy.

[DavidParker]

shotty's play does not fit the town shotty i know of. Also, his "cases" on people seem to lack validity and seem somewhat forced, and the way he said "it could come from scum or town because i do it as both" seemed to be an oberly cautious statement as he doesnt want to take a stance.

However, I still find hiraki as probable scum although depending how day goes i'd be willing to hammer shotty later.

[DavidParker]

DP- I use IIoA with out even thinking about it, I was simply saying it's null, and my case on hiraki is one of the best cases I've ever made. This is not forced, I'm just actually paying attention in this game

yeah that's my problem. You are paying attention. Never seen you do that, but thanks for playing, I'm not going to use it against you despite it irking me.

[DavidParker]

Well at least with two L-1 wagons, wagon analysis becomes quite useful at this point.

We can safely deduce Hiraki and shotty aren't scum buddies.

And also looking at people who are on the wagons (especially those who joined late), ie: chk/emp are not likely shotty's scum buddy. (Nor is hiraki since shotty joined and pushed hiraki's wagon just recently)

So if shotty is scum then either Later or myself would probably be his partner.

Now looking at Hiraki's wagon, you can deduce that shotty/myself probably aren't his scum partner. Later joined the wagon fairly early and that may have been distancing, and he hasn't been 'pushing' the wagon so much recently. Leaving emp or chk as his likely scum partner. (chk could work as he recently joined the shotty wagon without really seeming to feel too strongly about it, and his cautionness of joining it at first as well makes me see this as a possibility)


So, I'm going to pose a question to town:

We have two L-1 wagons, do you think it's more likely one of the wagons is on scum, or that neither is on scum? (would it surprise you if neither was on scum?)


As of right now, If one of the wagons is on scum, I'd have to say it would be the hiraki wagon and his scum buddy is likely chk. I know I'm town, so if shotty is scum his buddy would have to be Later, and I don't really feel the earlier case on Later was that strong, nor do I find him scum at this point.

Seeing as I only see one likely scum pair coming out of the wagons (although an emp/hiraki combo still could be quite possible, I just haven't really looked at emp yet), I find it quite likely the scum-team is maybe neither of these wagons.

[DavidParker]

Ok, and the reason I'm not "paying attention" is because I am, or was at the fairmont hotel in bpston with my family for thanksgiving, so not only did i not have much time, but I also had tp pay like hell for internet. It's me or Hiraki, pick one

No it's not.

No one hammer anytime soon. We are only on page 5 and still have lots of time.

I am requesting no one hammers without posting their willingness to hammer or unless multiple people on the wagon are asking for a hammer. As it stands, I'm on hiraki's wagon but don't want a hammer right now, but feel my vote is still best left on the wagon. I assume most people on their respective wagons would not want a hammer out of nowhere from someone on the other wagon.

[DavidParker]

Does anyone else feel neither wagon is on scum?

[DavidParker]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I say it's "quite likely" neither of these wagons is on scum, because I'm quite sure shotty is town, leaving only the Hiraki wagon. I'd say I'm about 50% convinced Hiraki is scum (with either chk or emp) and the other 50% of me believes the scum team is between chk/Later/emp

[DavidParker]

Honestly, I read the last line (does your case have some or any validity) since it was bolded, but haven't read any of the rest of the last 3-4 posts, because you guys have no idea how to format posts to make them readable, and I've just woken up 3minutes ago so not going to try trek through them. Will comment later.

[DavidParker]

Hammer Hiraki?

I'd rather not lynch shotty at this point.

At this point I'm leaning towards a Hiraki or chk lynch for today.. Third would have to be Later.

[DavidParker]

Because you are a common element in the most likely scum teams I see possible. While your play hasn't been all that "scummY", it hasn't given me a strong town read on you. In fact my read is somewhat neutral, maybe leaning "slightly" scum. But the thing that tipped me over is your possible link to emp/Later as scum buddies. (I don't see the two of them as being buddies)

What's your thoughts on a hiraki hammer sometime soon CHK?

[DavidParker]

Thanks for your question Later! It may have just condemned you though!!!

Well:

Why I initially concluded Shotty was town:

Assumption One: No one on his wagon at this point is likely his scum partner -- Chk joined the wagon very late. Hiraki vs Shotty interactions earlier in the game and at this point definitely isn't distancing, but genuine attacks of one trying to get the other lynched. Emp+shotty seems unlikely since it was emp who largely started/pushed the shotty wagon after hiraki did.

Not-Assumption Two: I'm not his scum partner.

So that left you, and ,now, here's where I stumbled... I remember a mental note I put down earlier that I don't believe shotty/Later to be scum partners due to shotty pushing Later to L-1 early in this day. I was just going back to confirm all this and actually saw something peculiar.

Page 2 shotty's first post: Votes Later saying to "calm down its just a game", quite likely busing although nothing substancial. No reason or case associated with his vote. And he doesn't really push this wagon at all or ever state how he finds Later scummy. As soon as people hop of Later's wagon (Emp/Hiraki start the shotty wagon, and as a result Later's wagon diminishes), Shotty moves his vote away from Later (his scum buddy?) and puts it on Hiraki. I had just pushed the Hiraki wagon, and shotty more or less just hopped on the bandwagon here possibly seeing an oppurtunity. Now, all this while, Later was responding to being at L-1, he COMPLETELY IGNORED shotty. He was responding to CHK/emp who were attacking him but didn't comment on Later. This is what caught me. Sure, there wasn't much to respond to as shotty was being a useless non-contributor, but there was plenty to attack. If I was later I would have gone after shotty for his dumb vote on me. Instead, he ignores it, almost knowing his wagon will fall apart in time, and just not wanting to return fire at his scum partner.

Anyways, I'm going to get to the point: Shotty+Later are likely scum buddies.

HOWEVER, Later is a better lynch than shotty. I think his play throughout the game has been just as scummy and in some situations more scummy than shotty's. Additionally, there are other players I can see being linked to Later as scum partners, but not to shotty. The only possible scum-partner I see for shotty is Later. So if shotty is scum, later is scum, ie: we can lynch either. But, if shotty isn't scum, later might still be scum (i see a possible pairing with emp as well).


So, here's my flip-flop:

Vote: Lateralus22

My case in a nutshell:
Shotty first-post distances himself from Later by voting.
Later COMPLETELY IGNORES shotty.
Shotty hops off the wagon once it quietens down and hops on the easy-Hiraki wagon.
Later hasn't hopped on the shotty wagon (Something I feel he would have done in his position)
Later is defending shotty now and trying to prevent his lynch. At this point in the day scum have to try save their scum buddy earlier on you can vote/distance to some extent, but with shotty's lynch looking likely, it's in Later's interets to push a Hiraki wagon.


So,
TL;DR: later is scum. Shotty is probably his buddy. Later is a better lynch than shotty because that's shotty's only possible scum-buddy, while Later could likely be scum with emp.

[DavidParker]

If Shotty is Lateralus' buddy, then why the hell are you voting Lateralus, instead of Shotty? Being Lovers, they die together anyway, no?

hint: read my post, I explain why I prefer a Lateralus lynch.

[DavidParker]

I prefer not to engage in back and forth argument vs response vs response vs response because it tends to be more counter-productive to town than anything. I knew beforehand what the "shortcomings" of my case on you were and what you would respond with. It doesn't change the fact that I still believe you to be scum. But I'm glad you responsed as that has helped my read on you.

[DavidParker]

I'd probably be lynching chk tomorrow. As if you flip town, then essentially shotty is town, and I see the scum team being either emp+chk or chk+hiraki.

But I'd still want to wait and see how that goes. As it stands, I'd still be happy with a chk lynch (or yours)

[DavidParker]

It's scummy of shotty but not of empking because of the way shotty came and voted you to "calm down" after someone else had just done that. He mimic'd empking and could be considered him trying to "fit in with town".


I don't doubt that he thinks Hiraki scummy. But my entire case on Hiraki was there already before I came and made it. It was only after your wagon fizzled and others had made the case for you being scum he jumped on the wagon. Why not see a scummy-ish case on Hiraki and vote him instead of putting a useless vote on your, or switch his vote sooner? It seemed he switched his vote at a time when it would go unnoticed as something 'scummy'.

You've been scummy by trying too hard and the tone of some of your posts seeming "forced" and not genuinely town to me at times.

With that said, I'm satisfied with your response, and contemplating revoting Hiraki or voting for CHK.

[DavidParker]

I don't like Hiraki's latest post.

[DavidParker]

I feel as if emp and I have gone completely unnoticed for the most part of this game; While I don't particularly mine being in that position, it is making it harder to read people, since both scum and town are ignoring me ;/

[DavidParker]

You seem to be avoiding emp more than anyone. You set on a town read on him?

[DavidParker]

I'm getting close to a point where I'd be willing to hammer Hitachi, but I'm still irked by the possibilities of any of Later/Emp/chk being the scum pair tomorrow if Hiraki flips town. I guess 2/3 is decent odds for tomorrow though.

Anyone opposed to me hammering ?

[DavidParker]

How does this work. The only one not on the Hiraki wagon or willing to hammer is Later at this point. Or me/chk is lying about being willing to hammer.

Or someone on Hiraki's wagon is playing a HUGE bluff/gambit (unlikely).

Do you see a case for a hiraki+later scum pair?

[DavidParker]

@emp: if you think chk is hiraki's scum buddy, would you be opposed to lynching him today instead of hiraki? I'd personally prefer his lynch.

[DavidParker]

I knew shotty would come back in with his words of wisdom.

Have you even read the thread? I'm the one who has pushed the Hiraki wagon more than anyone and made the initial case on him... That would be some god-awful scum play. Even if I'm not on his wagon as we speak, that's some terrible logic of yours.

[DavidParker]

Vote: Hiraki

[DavidParker]

For reference:

Voting:
Hiraki: (4) Lateralus22 drmyshottyizsik, empking, DavidParker
drmyshottyizsik:(2) Hiraki, chkflip

Initial thoughts:

Later's lack of vote-movement is VERY curious. I don't think it's scummy but he hasn't moved his vote since day 2 when he put it there. I feel scum would have been more opportunistic with their vote and tried to use it to push mislynches although it could have also been used to keep attention of him.

Emp has lurked quite a bit. I'm quite sure he is scum. He hasn't contributed much. Also the "I'm quite sure one of the two wagons is on scum, probably the shotty wagon".

Shotty... Well, he could be scum. He has played different to his normal meta, "tried" more this game it seems. Possibly apart of his scum "meta".

Chk can be linked to a large number of players. (not shotty) Especially emp.


Anyone else get the feel that emp calling CHK a liar for not being willing to hammer (ie accusing him of being hiraki's scum buddy) was emp's way of pushing a hiraki lynch (ie: make myself hammer, or justify a chk hammer later?)


So, I'm going to combine "scum-pair" analysis with "individual-scum" analysis to see where I can get...

Individually: Shotty>CHK>EMP>Later

Shotty - the whole IIoA debate and flailing around, seeming overly defensive at times
Emp - Just lurking and not contributing much when here. Very dismissive and seems to be coasting.
CHK - starts by voting for a flaker. What the heck?!?!, "Possible" scum slip

It's day one, there's a 1/6 chance that my RVS vote landed on mafia.

(I don't even know how he got 1/6.. It's 2/5, if he had typo'd it to 2/6 or 1/5 it might make sense.. but this.. hmm.
Later - Well don't see a huge case for him being scum, but also don't have a "strong" town read on him.

To be honest, the only thing stopping me voting Shotty was his last post before my hammer which actually showed some pro-town thought...

Team Investigation:

Shotty+CHK: NO. Chk was pushing his wagon on page 6 (ie near end of day). Very unlikely.
Shotty+Emp: NO. Emp pushed shotty's wagon early, calling him out for having incorrect logic in his case. Only jumped of his wagon today at a point when a Hiraki lynch had seemed more appealing than a Shotty lynch. Very unlikely.
Shotty+Later: Hello Scum. The only possible shotty scum-combo I see. But a very likely combo. Shotty's initial vote was on Later, but with no great reason to it. As stated before, Later then completely IGNORES shotty. Later's vote has NOT MOVED from Hiraki (a early page 2 vote). Shotty has played not to his town-meta. There's a lot here that I can support.
CHK+Emp: Hello other scum. Well, my problem with this team, is it's largely process of elimination. There's nothing in the game that suggests they AREN'T a scum team. Whereas I see a lot that suggests other teams aren't possible. This is a scum team I can't really make a "legit" case on. Because there's not connection or scummy lack-of-connection. Emp has lurked rather scummily, and CHK has been scummy at times. But team-wise, they've done nothing town or scum. Largely, just process of elimination.
CHK+Later: Meh town prob. CHK put later at L-1 on page 2. This could have been a gambit since it was early in the game. But it's still risky play. He does move his vote RL-days later to the now-appealing shotty wagon though. Reason I don't think they're scum: CHK keeps scum hunting vs Lateral, despite his vote being on shotty.
Emp+Later: Meh. As with all Emp-scum teams, there's not much to use to prove them, or disprove them. Emp has lurked. He was on the wagon with Later which got to L-1, but that was an early wagon that fell apart. This scum team isn't that likely, but its also not unlikely.

Shotty+Later>Emp+CHK>Emp+Later


Conclusion:
Individual scumminess suggests shotty/emp are scum. I don't have a town read on CHK or Later, but neither has been that scummy. Could have been playing a decent scum game, because I don't feel either is playing a super pro-town game. (ie: neutral reads)
Team scumminess suggests Shotty+later have a huge probability of being scum (I'd say 65-75%), Emp+chk and Later+emp have some merit due to emp's lurking and would be about equal second.

[DavidParker]

Doing this in a separate post since this is a big thing, if Later is town we insta lose now because scum have day-talk:

Vote: Laterus

[DavidParker]

Sigh. I let emp's lurking be too much of a null-tell to me. Well played scum, and well modded.

I was either voting for chk or Later today. Both were involved in 2 of the 3 possible scum combinations. Just shotty had been so scummy I couldn't let him win


My trigger happy I felt was justified come LYLO, I had the info I needed :/

Sorry town.

[DavidParker]

I would have put emp+chk as my number 1 scum team if it wasn't for what seemed like "opportunistic" voting by shotty, and "voting to stay under the radar" by Later. Not moving your vote all of day 1 just seemed really bad. And shotty's vote Later then jump of seemed to suggest strongly you two were scum.

But then there was the other side of me that was saying Emp-lurker is obv-scum, because I"m in other games with him where he's posting content and acting nothing like this.

CHk was only really scum by process of elimination in general, but there was still a decent case on him (ie: the potential scum-slip I pointed out, a townie would have easily known the chances of lynching scum day 1, where as mafia might slip up and not realize what it is). There was just too much connection between Later+shotty.


As for being trigger happy, well I had a 1/2 chance of voting scum. I saw no reason to extend out the day phase.

[DavidParker]

I had a strong town read on shotty but then doubted it towards the end of day 1 and a re-read of it combined with your early game play is what led me to my conclusions :/