Mini 1084: The New Jersey Shore (Game Over)

[themanhimself]

In games with multiple families or other roles that can kill at night (such as the Vigilante), the Godfather may also be immune to being killed at night.
Source

some mods have been known to give Serial Killers extra abilities, such as making them immune to either some or all night kills
Source

I'm a vigilante and last night I attempted to night-kill Carrotcake. Obviously, he survived the attack somehow. This could be attributed to one of several things:

A) He's the Godfather. As the MafiaWiki states, if a game has a vigilante then the Godfather is likely to be immune to night kills.

B) He's a serial killer. Again, as the MafiaWiki states, serial killers are likely to be night kill-immune due to the difficulty of the role.

C) He's some other type of night kill immune role. Within the realm of reasonable speculation this could be a doctor who protected himself or a bullet-proof townie. A doctor who can protect himself is a rare role so this is unlikely. So are bullet-proof townies and the confirmed existence of two vanilla townies also seems to downplay the odds of this occurring. Other NK-immune roles are also fairly rare so I see no reason to speculate on that possibility.

D) The doctor protected him. I see this as unlikely due to two factors. The first is sheer odds, a doctor successfully protecting someone out of ten possible choices when there are two kills is incredibly unlikely. Secondly, it's even more unlikely when the possible protectee was a lurker who led a mislynch and who had been discussed as possibly scum several times the previous day, right up until twilight was over.

I understand that I'm risking being night-killed by claiming a town power role, but I know what Internet Stranger seems to forget, which is, if the town wins, ALL of the town wins, even those who have been killed. If I am night-killed at least I took the godfather down with me and significantly increased the chances of a town win and therefore of me winning.

I also know that I called out Hanzo for role-claiming, but a VT role-claim gives us absolutely no new information, particularly from someone so close to being lynched. I'm role-claiming with both the intent and ability to help the town significantly.

[Internet Stranger]

Im sold. I still say we string up Jase tomorrow though.

unvote: Jase
vote: Carrotcake

[chkflip]

I love it when a plan comes together.

UNVOTE: Jase
VOTE: Carrotcake

The only other possibility I see is that TMH was roleblocked. Which I don't think happened, A or B seem MUCH more likely.

inb4 sheepysheepbaaaaa!~ So he's gotten to it before me. Several times. I'm in multiple games right now. Sue me.

[themanhimself]

The only other possibility I see is that TMH was roleblocked. Which I don't think happened, A or B seem MUCH more likely.

I forgot about that, but it falls under mostly the same argument as point D.

[Internet Stranger]

hmm, damn. I forgot about roleblockers. D works because its unlikely that anyone would have wanted to target CarrotCake last night. But, it is possible that a roleblocker could have thought that TMH is scum.

Im going back to Jase until this gets sorted out. Damn roleblockers.

unvote: CarrotCake
Vote: Jase

[Guderian]

theman, while I'm not a huge fan of your claim, I see where you are coming from. I feel it would have been better to try and get a lynch without outing yourself as the vig, but whatever. I do see some possibility of godfather. It would explain making a case and disappearing, seemingly unconcerned with how the day went. Being investigation proof would let you do a lot with impudence.

So it now seems unlikely that jase and carrot are scumbuddies together. It seemingly wouldnt make sense to lend weight to a wagon (jase) that may or may not of gotten of the ground.(will need jases response)

unvote

vote: carrotcake

IS just reads as town after his last few posts.

also, chk, I want an answer, then I will provide explanation.

[Llamarble]

Hrm, this is a fascinating and complicated situation.
The possibilities as I see them are:
A: Carrot is NK immune / targeted by some kind of protective role
B: TMH got roleblocked or otherwise interfered with at night
C: TMH is gambiting scum, hoping to ride an "oops guess it was a roleblock after all" into a scum victory.

C is supported by the single NK last night, suggesting no vig to counterclaim, and TMH's prior scumminess, but I'll need to reread and do some thinking to see if C makes sense. Expect a post on that tonight.

I believe Carrot should roleclaim if he has an NK immune role, but not otherwise so that we can at least rule out that possibility or reduce our options to "CC is scum or CC is NK immune town."

I doubt any town protective role would have targeted CC last night; he was looking pretty scummy to a number of players at that point.
A mafia doctor or similar targeting scumbuddy CC would make sense though.

B seems reasonably likely, since TMH looked scummy in the wake of the Hanzo lynch and might have been a town RB target.
TMH, did you breadcrumb anywhere / do anything that might have attracted a scum roleblocker?

I think if CC doesn't claim a town NK immune role and the TMH scumgambit hypothesis looks unlikely we lynch CC since even though B is plausible, B doesn't mean CC is town, only that he's not confirmed scum.
That means P(CC = scum | TMH accusation) = P(any random person = scum) * P(Accusation | carrotscum) / P(Accusation)
Obviously P(Accusation | carrotscum) is higher than P(Accusation) assuming TMH is actually vig and will accuse only if A or B happened.
That means P(CC = scum after TMH accusation) > P(random player is scum) so we should lynch CC.
If a player actually claimed roleblocker with a target on CC that would reduce the possibilities down to B, but even then Carrot isn't less likely to be scum than anyone else, so it's not worth outing a town PR to stop his possibly-justified-anyway lynch.

[Guderian]

this strikes me as too town sided for themanhimself to be scum fake claiming. if he was scum why do it now?

I understand that I'm risking being night-killed by claiming a town power role, but I know what Internet Stranger seems to forget, which is, if the town wins, ALL of the town wins, even those who have been killed. If I am night-killed at least I took the godfather down with me and significantly increased the chances of a town win and therefore of me winning.

[xsrk]

xsrk, of rain and jase, who do you consider the most scummy

I'd need to go with Rain, I just don't quite get the argument on Jase.

TMH, risky reveal (unless it's a 1-shot thing)... How do we know you aren't just mafia trying to sway the town against another player? Then again, I'm loth to lynch him, as if he's telling the truth it's pretty powerful, but... Perhaps you could shoot the person who gets the second most votes (or someone who you're pretty dang sure is scum), to verify your role... Doctor protection for you may be good (unless you're mafia trying to lure a doctor and get credibility...)

Carrotcake's lynching would reveal a bit about TMH, it looks sort of like it could be a binary situation (I think - correct me if I'm wrong), and if he is a godfather that also tells the doc whether to try and save TMH tonight. The information that we'd get from it, coupled with a sort of town assurance, leads me to

UNVOTE

VOTE CARROTCAKE

...
That's the right formatting, right?

[Internet Stranger]

TMH, if CC turns out to be town, would be we justified in pretty much auto-lynching you tomorrow?

[Scott Brosius]

Vote Count 9

Carrotcake (4)- themanhimself, chkflip, Guderian, xsrk
chkflip (1)- Jase
Guderian (0)-
Guthrie (0)-
Internet Stranger (2)- Guthrie, Rain
Jase (2)- Carrotcake, Internet Stranger
Llamarble (0)-
Rain (0)-
themanhimself (1)- Llamarble
xsrk (0)-

Not Voting (0)-

With 10 alive, it's 6 to a lynch. Deadline is December 13 at 11am EST.

[themanhimself]

TMH, if CC turns out to be town, would be we justified in pretty much auto-lynching you tomorrow?

No, that's stupid, that's what encourages lurking and people not contributing which is something you yourself have admitted to hating more than anything

[themanhimself]

@xsrk,
Yeah, I'll do that, unless for some reason I really strongly disagree with that persons scumminess. And doctor protection would be *awesome*

[themanhimself]

Llamarble,
I'm not 100% sure what bread crumbing means but I'm hard pressed to find anywhere that I may have hinted at any type of power if that's what you're getting at. Your logical argument is frankly fascinating and I've read it three times now. My question would be, since it makes sense to lynch CC either way, why hasn't your vote changed? To clarify, I'm NOT calling you out for this, I have no problem with more thought being put into a vote, I just wonder why.

[Internet Stranger]

TMH, if CC turns out to be town, would be we justified in pretty much auto-lynching you tomorrow?

No, that's stupid, that's what encourages lurking and people not contributing which is something you yourself have admitted to hating more than anything

I dont see how it does.

Either way, youre putting a role claim out early. It would be retarded for scum to be doing that now. If CC turns out to be scum, youre a hero. But if CC is not, what do you think we should do?

[themanhimself]

Keep scumhunting of course, if we don't hit it today then statistically speaking either I'll hit it tonight or we'll hit it tomorrow

[Internet Stranger]

This sounds like a bunch of crap, but ill do it anyways since we dont have any other play.
I still say Jase is scum.

Unvote: Jase
Vote: CarrotCake

FOS: TMH

[Guderian]

I would like to get some response from other people before we hammer/ entertain the thought of a hammer.

[Carrotcake]

I don't have night-kill protection. So I must have been doctored.
Tread lightly. The Doctor knows of my innocence, and this wagon risks revealing him.
Either that or he got roleblocked.

[Carrotcake]

Llamarble,
I'm not 100% sure what bread crumbing means but I'm hard pressed to find anywhere that I may have hinted at any type of power if that's what you're getting at. Your logical argument is frankly fascinating and I've read it three times now. My question would be, since it makes sense to lynch CC either way, why hasn't your vote changed? To clarify, I'm NOT calling you out for this, I have no problem with more thought being put into a vote, I just wonder why.

1.) Breadcrumbing is intentionally leaving clues to your power, so you could easily fall back to it on a claim. Or setup a fakeclaim.

I am sure he is a godfather...

It suggests inside information. Right then, you gave away that you were a power role.

2.) Lynching you if I die encourages lurking? That's not true. You are condemning me to death, and you refused to entertain the possibility of a doctor. Your faults stand on your own, and lurking has nothing to do with it.

3.) Let's theorize on the setup. A mafia familiy, a serial killer, and a vigilante. Is beyond a doubt broken, and swingy as hell for a twelve player game and is totally unlikely.

4.) You tried to kill me. That's cold. Rather than your theory which makes for an unlikely setup (#3), or has miraculously forgotten the most likely explanation of a doctor save. Why did you try to kill me?

[Carrotcake]

As a reminder on how lightly you people should tread. But now that I've sorted it, then it might be too late.

4 People rapidly changed their votes to me, this makes them less likely to be the doctor.
I am not the doctor.
The vig is not the doctor.
Two people are dead.
The three scum aren't doctors. (99% of 12 player games have 3 scum).

That leaves one.
+
A level of wifom from the four players.

[Carrotcake]

That's the worst case scenario. On best case. All who voted for me are scum.

Which makes it
4 Who might be the doctor (25%).

[Internet Stranger]

Hey CC, where do you get a serial killer from?

[themanhimself]

3.) Let's theorize on the setup. A mafia familiy, a serial killer, and a vigilante. Is beyond a doubt broken, and swingy as hell for a twelve player game and is totally unlikely.

Wait a minute, I said serial killer OR mafia and now you're saying both. We all know there's a mafia so it seems to me like you're assuming there's a serial killer. Sounds like a mistake a serial killer might drop to me.

[Rain]

@Carrotcake
From your defense, the only conclusion I draw is that there is little chance of having a doctor or a town RB in New Jersey (I followed more or less the same logic of the worst case scenario; you are not a doctor, TMH is not the doctor, the 4 people who voted for you probably aren't doctors, 3 scums aren't doctors, and I'm not a doctor). Also, since the gist of your defense was mostly based on your survival and not actually scum hunting/attacking TMH for falsely accusing you, I am willing to hammer.

Before that though, should we discuss who TMH should vig-kill or let that decision be at his discretion?

I agree with Guderian when he says that Jase and Carrotcake are unlikely to be scumbuddies, when we see that Carrot flips scum.

I still think IS is scum though. After TMH's claim, IS is clearly trying to scare TMH with retribution ("If CC isn't scum, TMH is lynchbait").

Unvote

for now.