Mini 1084: The New Jersey Shore (Game Over)

[Internet Stranger]

Of course im trying to scare TMH with retribution. If TMH is scum, he wouldnt have outed himself so early on with this little gambit knowing that I would assrape him for it the next day. I cant imagine that he would go through such lengths to protect Jase on the second day. And he could have gone after a better target than CC, since CC is acting like scum all over the place so far. The only way it would work as scum was if he was clearly suicidal.

So if he is a townie, the threat of retribution should make him think twice about what he is doing. But, he seems adamant that he is onto something. No one is going to follow me in lynching Jase today, so ill try again tomorrow. In the meantime, this little ordeal is stealing all the headlines and there probably wont be much way around it. So since I think its mostly sincere (albeit maybe misguided), I might as well go with it.

If you all want to pressure CC some more in the hopes of squeezing more juice out of her lemon (like this whole SK slip up of hers), then go for it.
I would recommend no one hammers just yet.

[chkflip]

Was a busdriver considered, either? A thought that popped into my head just now.

[themanhimself]

Was a busdriver considered, either? A thought that popped into my head just now.

First off, a bus driver seems highly unlikely period, then the odds that they would target Carrot are pretty low. And that's not even getting into the fact that we should have two kills (or possibly three, particularly in light of Carrot's little slip) per night but we only had one. Bus driver doesn't really solve any part of that problem, though it is a nice out-of-the-box idea.

Of course im trying to scare TMH with retribution. If TMH is scum, he wouldnt have outed himself so early on with this little gambit knowing that I would assrape him for it the next day. I cant imagine that he would go through such lengths to protect Jase on the second day. And he could have gone after a better target than CC, since CC is acting like scum all over the place so far. The only way it would work as scum was if he was clearly suicidal.

So if he is a townie, the threat of retribution should make him think twice about what he is doing. But, he seems adamant that he is onto something. No one is going to follow me in lynching Jase today, so ill try again tomorrow. In the meantime, this little ordeal is stealing all the headlines and there probably wont be much way around it. So since I think its mostly sincere (albeit maybe misguided), I might as well go with it.

If you all want to pressure CC some more in the hopes of squeezing more juice out of her lemon (like this whole SK slip up of hers), then go for it.
I would recommend no one hammers just yet.

So you're saying I'm almost confirmed town, but that you would be willing to lynch me regardless tomorrow if CC flips town? I'm getting a lot of scummy vibes from how you're playing this whole situation. It seems like in the beginning you wanted to support it so when carrot flipped scum you could say you had voted for him initially, but then you tried to find ways to distance yourself from the wagon so you wouldn't have to vote for your scumbuddy. Eventually you see the inevitability and don't want to be the one left out so you jump back on. Highly suspicious.

Not to mention, if CC doesn't flip scum then I'm almost certainly dying tonight because there's no way I would get doctor protection and with a power role like mine the mafia are gonna want me gone. I'm not saying I'll necessarily make it if CC does flip scum, but I would feel more confident about getting some doctor protection then.

Perhaps you could shoot the person who gets the second most votes (or someone who you're pretty dang sure is scum), to verify your role...

Before that though, should we discuss who TMH should vig-kill or let that decision be at his discretion?

I'm definitely still willing to do this, but I don't want to name any possibilities until twilight starts, because that could affect the dynamic of the game and the votes too much, it could confuse the whole town in a pretty negative way. Let's wait until somebody hammers.

Also, keep in mind that there's a fair chance this will be my last night-kill, so let's make it count.

I am willing to hammer.

I would recommend no one hammers just yet.

First, IS, this adds to my theory that you're scumbuddies with CC. Secondly, I'm fairly confident this is going to happen today so I'll just let you guys hammer when you want. I'm totally fine with getting it over with so we can move on to twilight and discuss NK possibilities, but we did get some (possibly) valuable info out of CC earlier so I'm also fine waiting to see if anything else is forthcoming. Like I said, I'm pretty sure we all realize this is the most solid evidence we'll get (short of a positive cop investigation) so I'm confident it will happen. I'm in no rush and I've no particular desire to wait. Up to you guys.

[themanhimself]

EBWOP: However, if no one is going to contribute anything until a hammer happens, then someone might as well go for it.

[Internet Stranger]

If you all want to pressure CC some more in the hopes of squeezing more juice out of her lemon (like this whole SK slip up of hers), then go for it.
I would recommend no one hammers just yet.

Dude, if youre going to quote me, dont take something out of context in an attempt to incriminate me. I said to wait on the hammer based on that SK remark that seemed out of place. If I was scum, why would I intentionally flip flop around in the span of a day too?

Are you just taking shots at me because I find this highly suspicious and I dont appreciate being manipulated? Dont you see that the way you been going around this makes it look like youre the pied piper leading the town around? Thats twice in one post that you been trying to set me up for later.

Im saying that the only way we have to punish you if youre pulling our balls is via a lynch. If youre scum, you probably dont care. You caused enough chaos and confusion already, tried to set me up for later and took out a few with you. Who knows, maybe the scum have one of them power role seekers and figured CC out but figured you couldnt get a lynch, so this was the next best thing.

I still think thats unlikely though because it would be a really stupid play. My vote on CC reflects that.

But I dont suddenly think that youre an angel descended from the heavens, ready to provide us with salvation. There are reasons why you could be wrong. Im not so sure that coming out of the closet was the best move for you to make either. Then youre obviously trying to set me up for later.

So even if you are town, I cant quite figure out why you would do it. Jase was as good a lynch candidate as any. CC looked scummy already, she wasnt going to sucker anyone into anything. Why would you want to derail that Jase bandwagon now? That is where my suspicions come in.

I still think Jase is the scum.

So who are you killing tonight, anyways?

[themanhimself]

I won't know who I'm targeting tonight until we lynch and see how CC flips and until I get a feel of what the town wants during twilight.

I didn't take your quote out of context, I even restated your reason for wanting to wait to hammer in my argument as sound and fair.

I'm taking shots at you where I feel you deserve them, I'm not trying to set you up for a lynch. Though your play has been suspicious, I strongly believe CC is going to flip scum and you have been on the wagon for most of the time so I think you're likely town. But I stand by my suspicions as reasonable and I'm not saying you are town, just that where we stand right now it seems likely enough.

I've never understood the Jase bandwagon and I don't think I will until we get a new player in his place (if he makes it that long, that is). I think CC is a far more clear candidate in light of the evidence I put forth and so it was a no-brainer to put him up for now and see what happens from that.

Coming out was not ideal and I said that when I did come out, but I think it was worth it for what we got out of it. This is a good starting place to fuel scumhunting for the rest of the game, particularly when CC flips godfather.

[Internet Stranger]

Twilight? Isnt that risky? Cant the mod lock the thread at any time after the last vote? That cant possibly be a good time to be making life and death decisions with proper consensus.
What is wrong with you? Really?

Why not just kill Jase for me?

2FOS: TMH

[themanhimself]

Because I'm handing over my power to the town, not you. If I'm not doing that then I'll just use it on my own and I don't see Jase as the scum around here. The mod could lock it at any time but if we start discussing names then that's gonna change votes which is gonna change the game. I don't have to listen to anyone about my NK if I don't want to so be glad I'm offering to take a concensus at all.

[Internet Stranger]

Which is what you should have been doing in the first place. Keep quiet and snipe anyone you thought to be guilty. Now we get to deal with this circus instead.
I will sit back and let the other kids have a turn at the Spin-a-Wheel ride built by crack smoking carneys.

[Scott Brosius]

Fishythefish replaces Jase effective immediately.

[Llamarble]

I was hoping Carrot would claim bulletproof townie or something similar, since that would at least essentially confirm truthtellingTMH.
I didn't vote Carrot immediately because I wasn't sure about how likely a TMH fakeclaim was.
Evaluating the fakeclaim possibility, it makes sense to me that TMH might be fakeclaiming here.

Best case for TMH if he is scum is we lynch Carrottown, then tomorrow we no-lynch due to mylo,
and the next day we are at lylo with TMH having an uncontested claim on an important town PR and the ability to just say "Guess I got RBed."

Ensuring a mislynch is a pretty big deal; even if we do lynch TMH tomorrow following a towncarrot flip he's managed to trade himself for several townies and left us at mylo after a couple of predictable days (it would be hard to get information from who was on Carrot/TMH's wagons today and tomorrow since the logic for being there isn't simply reads). This ploy works particularly well for GF TMH because towncarrot likely earns an investigation (A cop is likely if TMH is not actually a vig) of TMH, which GFs want to look innocent.

The only way this works out really badly for TMHscum is if somebody had counterclaimed Vig today.
In that case he just gets lynched (after the real vig if he's lucky) or vigged by the real vig , and given the 1kill and perhaps some of their own PRs (an investigation immune GF would suggest a cop and make a vig less likely, for example) the scum might have been able to guess about whether or not there actually is a vig.

Carrot's logic was that if TMH is really a vig, then since a mafia family is a safe assumption an SK is unlikely due to swingyness.
That is a legitimate point, and suggests GF as the plausible scumrole for Carrot.
That reduces P(Carrotscum) a bit, but P(Carrotscum) is still higher than the likelihood for anyone else if TMH is telling the truth.

Overall it looks like fakeclaiming vig would be a strong play for scum in this situation if the scum are reasonably sure there is no vig to counterclaim and a scumbuddy such as Jase or IS were under attack. It would be a super ballsy/clever move though.

Lynching VigTMH would be worse for the town than lynching towncarrot, though that is another factor making a fakeclaim more likely.

I don't think night actions will help us resolve TMH's alignment (since either he or Carrot is likely the GF), so I think our move for today is to lynch carrot and be extremely suspicious of TMH tomorrow if carrot flips town. I think a town doctor or RB claiming in lylo if they caused TMH's carrotshot to fail would exonerate TMH though, so that makes the bothofthemaretown situation less devastating for us.

SK TMH is unlikely since he is likely to get investigated, especially if Carrot flips town, which is death for an SK.

[themanhimself]

There are ten players. I'm one and carrot is one so that leaves eight. Of those eight there are four people voting for carrot. If there were a doctor who protected carrot or a roleblocker who RB'ed me, we can assume that even if they didn't claim (which is probably smart for them and for the town overall) that they wouldn't vote for carrot. That leaves Llamarble, Guthrie, Jase and Rain. Llamarble seems to be for a carrot lynch so we'll exclude him. Rain has already stated it wasn't him and he's for the lynch as well but doesn't want to hammer too quickly. Guthrie hasn't posted in a good week so we can't say anything definitively about him but he was seeming scummy. Jase has also requested replacement and was also seeming scummy to a lot of people. If we assume three mafia and carrot as godfather then that leaves the next two scummiest players as the only ones not on this vote. It would also make sense that since this vote has grown so quickly, the doctor and (possible) roleblocker knew they hadn't done anything which confirmed carrot as scum so they quickly jumped on. Regardless, if it isn't carrot, then that makes either Guthrie or Jase (two of the people most accused of being scum so far) the doctor or roleblocker respectively which just adds to the improbability of the doctor/RB-preventing-a-kill scenario. It's clearly Carrotcake.

[Llamarble]

Yeah, I think the worst case scenario right now is a scum roleblocker on vigTMH and a town Carrot.
Said scumRB would definitely hop onto the carrot lynch.
Then after a towncarrot flip there would be nobody to exonerate TMH tomorrow,
which basically leaves us screwed if a 1/8 (assuming there is a scum RB or similar role) thing happened.

[themanhimself]

You could hammer here Llamarble.

[Fishythefish]

Reading. Won't take long.

unvote

[Scott Brosius]

Vote Count 10

Carrotcake (5)- themanhimself, chkflip, Guderian, xsrk, Internet Stranger
chkflip (0)-
Fishythefish (1)- Carrotcake
Guderian (0)-
Guthrie (0)-
Internet Stranger (1)- Guthrie
Llamarble (0)-
Rain (0)-
themanhimself (1)- Llamarble
xsrk (0)-

Not Voting (2)- Rain, Fishythefish

With 10 alive, it's 6 to a lynch. Deadline is December 13 at 11am EST.

Guthrie hasn't even picked up his PM, but I will give him until tomorrow or else I will seek replacement.

[Llamarble]

I don't like 2 short days in a row. More content helps us get better reads and thus is pro-town.
We have time; let's let fishy do a catch up post and hear a roleclaim from carrot beyond "not NK immune."
We can also talk about who we think scumbuddies for CC or TMH depending on CC's flip are.
We've mostly talked out the possibilities here and I do think Carrot is the right lynch, so you can expect me to hammer eventually.
TMH being scum is the main alternate possibility, but Carrot's flip will give us a lot of information about that.
If carrot flips town and nobody claims to have interfered with TMH's shot, TMH is likely (chance of a scumPR interfering is ~1/8) to be scum and thus we should lynch him.
If we got unlucky, then I guess we lose, but we can't lynch everyone.
If carrot flips scum, TMH is pretty much cleared.

Unvote

[Guderian]

Would like to hear more from guthrie and the jase replacement.

I still feel strongly about the CC wagon, but I would also like to know If anybody has ISOed xsrk. I'm not liking what I see there.

And also, If i am correct, this setup has been reviewed by three competent players to ensure fairness and win-ability for all. Therefore, it is HIGHLY unlikely we would have three killing roles a night, i.e. SK mafia and vig. That would put town at LYLO potentially d2. I would think it is safe to say that there is no SK.

I also ran a few percentages about what I think of the current situations.
Carrot is in the mafia, is the godfather, and got targeted by the vig 3/10 x 1/3 x 10/10 = 10%
Carrot is NOT in the mafia, got doc protected, and got targeted by vig 7/10 x 1/9 x 10/10 = 7.778%
Carrot is NOT in the mafia, TMH got roleblocked, and got targeted by vig 7/10 x 1/9 x 10/10 = 7.778%
Carrot is NOT in the mafia, no doc protection, TMH is the mafia 7/10 x 8/9 x 3/10 = 18.6%
Carrot and TMH are in the mafia 3/10 x 2/9 = 6.66%

pure numbers. some other possibilities but did not see fit to go there.

[Fishythefish]

What a nice easy game to replace into.

TMH is almost certainly town. This is simply not a scummove. Because eventually the question "where's your kill?" becomes rather awkward.

Given that, what are the odds that CC is scum? An average game has about the same number of mafia roleblockers and godfathers in it. A godfather and a roleblocker each have a 1/(no. of players) chance of causing a missed kill. So, if you don't die when shot, and no town PR pipes up to mention that that might be their fault, 50% chance you're a godfather, 50% the vig got blocked. Plus a few points for the odd mafia doctor, I suppose. At any rate, your odds of being scum are approximately 0.5+0.5*(normal odds of being scum). Those are what I call extremely good odds, and there's nothing in these 10 pages with any chance of overriding that.

Have to say, that's rather shot my case to hell. Because I had all sorts of reasons why TMH's play on the hanzo wagon makes him scum. But it turns out he isn't. I'll wait until the CC flip to go back over things looking for new reads.

vote: CC

L-1.

Time for a claim.

[Fishythefish]

Shit shit sorry sorry. Thought Llama was unvoting CC. That's a lynch, I'm an idiot.

[Guderian]

+5,000 scum points.

[Fishythefish]

Why?

[chkflip]

Because Guderian thinks he knows what he's talking about.

[Scott Brosius]

Vote Count 11

Carrotcake (6)- themanhimself, chkflip, Guderian, xsrk, Internet Stranger, Fishythefish
chkflip (0)-
Fishythefish (1)- Carrotcake
Guderian (0)-
Guthrie (0)-
Internet Stranger (1)- Guthrie
Llamarble (0)-
Rain (0)-
themanhimself (0)-
xsrk (0)-

Not Voting (2)- Rain, Llamarble

Having to stay inside due to a hurricane outside, the town must entertain themselves playing board games and watching TV. However, the TV keeps changing channels and landing on Jersey Shore. Nobody knows who is controlling the TV, but no matter how many times they switch, someone keeps switching it back to Jersey Shore. Everyone knows that nobody from NJ would actually watch that show. The town suspects Carrotcake and they decide to lynch her, fearing an outsider. Carrotcake takes a few last gasps and goes limp. A few seconds later, a universal remote control along with a few bottles of hair gel fall to the floor under Carrotcake.

Carrotcake,

Mafia Goon

,

Lynched Day 2!

Night 2 begins! Deadline for night actions is December 3 at 7pm EST

[Scott Brosius]

Everyone decides to do something fun to celebrate the night before. The town is excited to rid the shore of these awful outsiders. They go to ride the craziest roller coaster on the boardwalk, but when the car comes to the station, there is a body in it. Poor chkflip has been killed! They decide to ride a different ride, as the roller coaster needs to be cleaned of blood.

They go to the Ferris Wheel, and as the wheel comes to a stop, another body is found! This is the body of poor xsrk who falls out of the Ferris Wheel car when the door is opened.

chkflip,

Town Roleblocker

has been killed![/b]

xsrk,

Vanilla Townie

has been killed![/b]

Mr Wright replaces Guthrie effective immediately.

Vote Count 12

Fishythefish (0)-
Guderian (0)-
Internet Stranger (0)-
Llamarble (0)-
Mr Wright (0)-
Rain (0)-
themanhimself (0)-


Not Voting (7)- Fishythefish, Guderian, Internet Stranger, Llamarble, Mr Wright, Rain, themanhimself

Day 3 begins! 2-week deadline that can be extended at my discretion. With 7 alive, it's 4 to a lynch. Deadline is December 17 at 11am EST.