Mini 1084: The New Jersey Shore (Game Over)

[themanhimself]

Hmmm... ok, well carrot was scum so that's good. Not a godfather though which makes me suspect a mafia doctor.

I'm now really confused about my role because I targeted Guthrie/mr. wright last night......

VOTE: Mr Wright

Lynching the person I targeted but who is still alive worked yesterday so this is a good start. If there is a mafia doctor and MW was scum, it would explain almost everything.

[chkflip]

BAH

!

[Llamarble]

Um, mafia doctor wouldn't explain 2 deaths last night, which definitely requires explaining.
I assumed when I saw the deaths that Chkflip targeted you N1 and you targeted Xsrk or Chkflip N2.
Maybe there's a target redirecting role, or maybe an SK (which would imply TMH got blocked again)?
Or the mafia/town have extra killpower?
SK, mafia bonus killpower, and 1shotvig or other additional town killpower all seem less likely.

Right now I'm thinking N1 Chkflip RBed TMH,
then followed along for the carrot lynch to avoid outing himself / because Carrot was no less likely to be scum than anyone else.
I think the most likely thing to have happened N2 is a redirecting role, since additional killpower beyond scum / vig seems like a lot.
Redirecting actions targeting Guthrie onto Xsrk (or killing Xsrk and redirecting onto Chkflip) is weird, because xsrk was scummy.
Maybe scum redirecting role thought they saw PR tells from Xsrk and killed / redirected onto him?
I would have thought a town redirecting role would send actions targeting someone town-looking to someone scum-looking.
Guthrie didn't look very town as he kind of ignored the carrot wagon and was pro Hanzo wagon.
Scum redirecting role would likely send actions targeting scumbuddy off to townie.

Thus I think the simplest / most likely scenario, assuming TMH actually tried to target MW,
is that Chkflip RBed TMH N1 and Guthrie or Guthriescumbuddy redirected TMH's action off Guthrie/MW onto xsrk or Chkflip N2.
Scum with redirector power seems reasonable to balance town roleblocker + vig.
If the redirector power has

Guthrie was also scummy before this business (ignored carrot wagon, pushed Hanzo wagon), so
VOTE: Guthrie

Guderian did some fuzzy math that painted TMHscum as more likely than Carrotscum.
I think the main misleading assumption he made was that there was a 100% chance of TMH claiming vig D2 if he was scum.
And yet he didn't get off the wagon despite his conclusion being that TMHscum was more likely than Carrotscum.
Maybe Guderianscum figured if the wagon did lynch he didn't want to be caught off of it?
This looked like bussing while hoping others would defuse the wagon for him based on his math.
He also called for more time before hammering, which looked like scum hoping for a defense of Carrot to catch on before a lynch happened.
He was also pro Hanzo quicklynch / L - 1 on that wagon.
He seems like the most likely other scum to me.

[themanhimself]

Yeah, the extra kill is the 'almost' in my 'almost everything'

[Llamarble]

Oops, VOTE: Mr. Wright

[Mr Wright]

Hello everyone.

Very interesting game so far. Since I don't have a lot of time on my hands right now, I'll post my thoughts in about eighteen hours. In the meantime, I'd like Fishythefish to answer these questions:

About post 243.
What made you think Llamarble was unvoting Carrotcake?
Why did you decide to put Carrotcake at L-1?

[Guderian]

Do people think that there are :

a.two mafia and a serial killer and a vig alive in this game? (in which case mylo)

b. Or do people think there is one mafia a serial killer and a vig

c. Or two mafia and a vig.

My personal opinion, which I would like thoughts on, is two mafia/ a serial killer and a vig. I intially ruled this out, but the death of the town roleblocker makes me wonder if the scum have one too, which would make sense to try and level out all the potential kills. I initially ruled this possibility (3 scum vig sk) out, but after reflecting on the possibility of cross kills and roleblocks it seems more likely.

In which case, I would suspect fishy to be a potential serial killer, and will look into Guthrie for the other mafia. fishy's, 'opps did I hammer lol jk!' seemed pretty ingenuine, and Im pretty sure a town would check the votes to be sure that they are not hammering someone on their first post. It also fits with the fact fishy wouldnt really care if he hammered, because town/mafia lynch makes no difference to him. (also possibly investigation immune)

for all these reasons

vote: FishytheFish

[Fishythefish]

@mod

: Poor access for the next 48 hours.

Expect content after that.

[Internet Stranger]

I keep getting beat to the punch. How am I supposed to lead this town to its eternal glory if you all keep scooping my scumtargets from under me? I cant make a case to rally against a scum if a bunch of people are voting for them already. This makes me look bad, im supposed to be here to save you all, not get stuck in the middle of the pack.

Fishy took over for Jase, who I proclaimed to be scum already, so thats something there.
TMH is 1/1 so far, and if he targeted Mr. Wright, there must be a reason why it failed. I doubt chkflip would have roleblocked him twice in a row.

Im comfortable lynching either of those two, so ill hop on the bigger wagon.

Vote: Mr. Wright

Does anyone find it odd that the two scummiest people are the replacements? Did the originals knew that they were doomed and gave up?

[themanhimself]

I agree with llamarble about guderian, I don't like his play at all, particularly today.

I'm voting mw right now but I'm considering going over to guderian because he seems likes he trying to play both sides of everything so he can't be caught off guard.

I'm gonna

unvote

and see where this goes. If nothing changes then I'm willing to hammer MW if someone else votes him, but I want to keep an eye on guderian for now...

[Guderian]

what sides of what?

My play today? To what are you referring about? I am merely stating the fact that you have claimed vig but HAVE NOTHING to show for it. I'm pondering a few possibilities. What do you think about my thoughts?

[Internet Stranger]

uh.. Guderian, he has a very dead scum CarrotCake to show for it.
Are you claiming a very elaborate epic bussing attempt by TMH? If he manages to pull that off, just give him a damn medal now.

The only reason I dont come around and try to rip your face off is because I also happen to like the Fishy(Jase) wagon youre trying to start. You still have to admit though, it looks like youre trying to start a diversionary bandwagon. Look, I hate and abhor the fact that TMH is hogging all the glory that I should be getting for myself, but he did get CarrotCake scum. So as soon as he fails, I will stab him in the back and assert myself as top scumhunter once again. Its no different than what any other powerhungry scumhunter would do.

[Guderian]

No, I am not moving from my fishscum wagon, which seems really obvious to me.

I didnt think so yesterday, but the night kills changed my mind. Do you think there are three killing roles, divided up among 2/3 mafia, a SK and a vig?

as long as we're clear on the fact once this is all over I will be anointed top scumhunter, with you getting the second place 'also ran' medal!

[Internet Stranger]

Ha! I saw fishy first! That scumlynching belongs to me! But I'm ok with lynching Mr. Wright first anyways.

Who are we waiting on anyways?

[Fishythefish]

Re: thinking Llamarble was unvoting CC - here was his unvote post:

I don't like 2 short days in a row. More content helps us get better reads and thus is pro-town.

We have time; let's let fishy do a catch up post and hear a roleclaim from carrot beyond "not NK immune."

We can also talk about who we think scumbuddies for CC or TMH depending on CC's flip are.
We've mostly talked out the possibilities here and I do think Carrot is the right lynch, so you can expect me to hammer eventually.
TMH being scum is the main alternate possibility, but Carrot's flip will give us a lot of information about that.
If carrot flips town and nobody claims to have interfered with TMH's shot, TMH is likely (chance of a scumPR interfering is ~1/8) to be scum and thus we should lynch him.
If we got unlucky, then I guess we lose, but we can't lynch everyone.
If carrot flips scum, TMH is pretty much cleared.

Unvote

I honestly can't remember with 100% certainty, but I

think

the bolded, plus the emphasis on CC, made me think that he was taking CC away from L-1 while I caught up.

@Guderian: about my reaction seeming "ingenuine": any reason for this? Saying I said 'opps did I hammer lol jk!' is a total misrepresentation of my post. I've explained why I made my mistake; I thought Llamarble had unvoted. If you don't think that's a credible mistake to make, there's little I can say to convince you, but I don't think there are good reasons for that.

A question, though: suppose I was scum (of any variety).

Why

would I want to quickhammer someone who was almost certainly going to be lynched anyway? "Not caring whether I hammered" is ridiculous reasoning - as any scum role, I'd want to stay under the radar. Quickhammering deliberately just isn't a move that adds up in that situation.

Interesting claim from TMH. Thinking about the implications of this + 2 kills. Three kills in a 12 player game isn't exactly common, but then nor is anything else that could cause that.

Proper analysis of that, plus other things that aren't about me, tomorrow.

[Llamarble]

It's unfortunate Chkflip is dead; he likely RBed either TMH or an SK N1 and we could rule out his D2 target as an SK.
Time to go back and read for who he likely targeted.

"The only other possibility I see is that TMH was roleblocked. Which I don't think happened, A or B seem MUCH more likely."

This makes me think Chkflip probably didn't target TMH N1 and finds TMH being roleblocked unlikely because he had roleblocking power and didn't use it on TMH.
He also later mentions the possibility of a busdriver; presumably he suspected his RB might have been moved onto TMH from somewhere else
My best guess for his N1 target is Guthrie, the first person he mentioned finding scummy after N1.
A busdriver is plausible and could explain TMH's being RBed night 1 and killredirected night 2 (a situation that doesn't require an SK to make sense).

If I had to guess at his N2 RB target, I'd say Jase given his belief Jase was scum expressed during the day.
That would rule Jase out as SK, but A: we can't confirm that and B: Jase could also be mafia who didn't submit an NK.
Still this makes it somewhat less likely fishy is some kind of scum.


Assuming Chkflip did not target TMH also makes the mafia doctor scenario with an SK reasonable. (and a maf. doctor seems like a way to balance out vig+SK)
A mafia doctor targeting CC and then Guthrie makes a lot of sense, and it would mean 3 mafia and an SK unless Guthrie self targeted,
which mafia doctors can't normally do as far as I know. 2 Mafia and an SK makes sense if Guthrie is an NK immune SK.
In these cases, the night actions could be explained by:
N1: Maf doc protects Carrot. Chkflip RBs Guthrie or some other PR interferes, preventing another shot. Third shot goes through on CN (or CN gets shot twice).
N2: Maf doc protects Guthrie or Guthrie is NK immune SK. Scumshots succeed.
So Guthrie is scum here.

My other occam's razored out possibility is:
A: Scum busdriver exists and has been targeting Guthrie
Chkflip's RB on Guthrie N1 gets redirected by scum busdriver onto TMH, explaining his D1 nokill.
Chkflip RBs someone else N2 (possibly Jase).
N2 scum busdriver redirects TMHkill off Guthrie onto xsrk or chkflip, so this explains the 2kills and TMH's target not dying.
Scum NKs CN N1 after he attacks Guthrie, so this explains the first NK choice.
Scum NKs Chkflip after seeing the "Maybe there's a busdriver" and "I don't think TMH was RBed" posts (explaining NK 2) or xsrk for some other reason.

In this case Guthrie is probably scum being protected by a scumbuddy busdriver (who usually target a scumbuddy especially to mess with cops).
This case doesn't call for an SK to make sense, which makes it more believable IMO.

If I've puzzled this very complicated situation out (and guessed Chkflips night 1 action) correctly, Guthrie is likely to be scum of some sort.

If I'm wrong about Guthrie, it means
A: Chkflip RBed TMH N1 and a doctor or bulletproofness or similar protected town Guthrie. Something else stopped the SK N1. Seems not especially likely.
B: Mafia RB or similar role stopped the second TMH NK. Chkflip or maf RB stopped first TMH NK. Something stopped first SK NK. This still requires an SK to make sense and a mafia doctor is both more likely to protect carrot and makes more balance-sense with so many NKs around. Again, farfetched.
C: TMH is actually the SK and came out as vig D1 for town cred expecting a GF lynch and is now seeking to make us chase shadows by pretending somebody else is SK (which would confirm him as vig). Why wouldn't SK TMH just claim responsibility for killing the scummy xsrk or perhaps chkflip though?

There are other possibilities, but none of this seems as plausible as the 2 above which imply scumguthrie.
My best guess for Guthrie's busdriverbuddy or docbuddy is Guderian, who seems to want a fish counterwagon.
Therefore let's lynch MW.
I'm ready to hear his claim.
No quickhammer today please; I want to look for evidence for or against Guderian/Guthrie/Carrot scumteam.

[Guderian]

So your conclusion is a guderian/mr wright/carrot scum team with no serial killer? why were there two kills in the night?

I want to hear more from wright and fishy and rain (

who has yet to post yet

), about their promised 'reads' and 'more content'.

[Llamarble]

WOW, I just read through Carrot/Guderian/Guthrie and OMG THE SCUMLINKS!
Carrot mostly spent his time pushing the Hanzo lynch and rolefishing after he was outed,
but before that he also defended Guthrie, calling the case against Guthrie "flimsy."
Guthrie avoids mentioning both Carrot and Guderian almost entirely and pushes wagons against Hanzo, TMH, and IS instead.
He never even mentioned the Carrot wagon after TMH came out.
Guderian calls Guthrie "The scum driven alternate wagon to Hanzo."
Guderian pushed the Hanzo wagon (he was L-1) and the IS wagon.
Look at his scumlist!
"To put at the top of my list would be Internet Stranger on the Wagon, and xsrk off the wagon, with one mafia outstanding."
His other candidates there are Jase, Rain, and Llamarble...
No mention of Guthrie or Carrot, who had been mentioned by other players as scummy.
He claims he's going to reread Guthrie, then never mentions any results of having done so.
He also painted TMH as likelier scum than carrot after TMH came out and revealed carrotscum...
And he gave up on the IS wagon as soon as it was essentially obvious carrot would die.
Today he wants a fish counterwagon!

Guderian busdriver eliminates the need for an SK since he bounces TMH's kill somewhere unexpected.
Guderian scumdoctor means there is also an SK, but scum doctor makes sense if there are a vig/SK around, so this possibility is reasonable too.

Carrot is goon, Guderian is scum busdriver or doctor, and Guthrie is the third scum (role unknown)!!
GG!

[Guderian]

that is pretty good, except for the fact i'm not actually scum. You should rethink with that in mind. Anything less will be extremely costly.

I was wrong on some of those, and I'm not sure why you consider some people auto clears now and some not.

If we want to quote wall back and forth we can, It proves nothing.

I remain suspicious of TMH.

Xsrk manages to be pretty scummy despite a mere 2 posts.

TMH no longer falls into the "trying to look like a scumhunter without making waves" category.

Thus I think the scumteam is TMH/IS/Carrot

Carrot/Guderian/Guthrie and OMG THE SCUMLINKS!

The fact remains that there is a scum team and prob a sk. Trying to argue away from this derails the town.

[themanhimself]

@ Llamarble,
Me likey. Totes down for this. Sorry for the quick post, at work. Will pick a place to put my vote ASAP

[Llamarble]

Bolded mine.

that is pretty good, except for the fact i'm not actually scum. You should rethink with that in mind. Anything less will be extremely costly.

Sounds like you're either threatening to NK me or softclaiming a mysterious super important PR. I find both scummy

I was wrong on some of those, and I'm not sure why you consider some people auto clears now and some not.

Who am I auto-clearing? I think you carrot and Guthrie/MW are the mafia, leaving IS or rain or Jase to be the SK. One of those could swap in for you as the busdriver or mafia doctor, but your posting makes it much more likely that you're the third scum. The only people I'm assuming are town are myself and TMH. And it's not that you have been wrong, it's that your posting has shown a completely consistent pattern of seeking to avoid Carrot/Guthrie lynches while pushing the alternate wagons to each of theirs, including using misleading math to attempt to paint TMH as a better lynch than carrot yesterday.

If we want to quote wall back and forth we can, It proves nothing.

What? Post analysis proves nothing?? This statement is borderline flailing.

I remain suspicious of TMH.

Xsrk manages to be pretty scummy despite a mere 2 posts.

TMH no longer falls into the "trying to look like a scumhunter without making waves" category.

Thus I think the scumteam is TMH/IS/Carrot

Carrot/Guderian/Guthrie and OMG THE SCUMLINKS!

What are these quotes supposed to show?

The fact remains that there is a scum team and prob a sk. Trying to argue away from this derails the town.

I'm not arguing away from this. I described what I think the most likely scumteam/SK scenario is. You're on the scumteam in that scenario.
I also described a likely scenario without an SK, and you're on that scumteam too.
Your assumption that there is an SK suggests you have proof there's one (you're the SK yourself, which Guthriescum doesn't rule out).

The fact that he acts like all my thoughts have to be wrong if he is town instead of saying "Good logic against Guthrie! You've just got the wrong guy as the doctor/busdriver" is even more damning. You feel you have to discredit my logic completely because you see that as the only way of saving yourself and your scumbuddy from dying.

[Rain]

To start off, I'm convinced scum, vig and SK can't be simultaneously in the same 12-man game. Besides, supposing such configuration exists, it would need 2 kills in N1 to support it (giving some leeway to account for doc protect or RB).

Based on CC's vote, I'm fairly certain Jase/Fish is town. TMH is obvtown. Llamarble is probably town. Of the remaining, I see either IS or Guderian to be likely scum, not certain if both of them are.

Actually, we have no clear indication that TMH is vig, he can easily be SK. In either case he's clearly non-scum, so might as well treat him as town.

By the way, Llamarble, a quick CTRL+F shows that Guthrie hardly mentions me as well, with only a passing reference to you.

I still think IS is scum, but would join Guderian's wagon.

Vote: Internet Stranger

[Guderian]

what are you thoughts about mr.wright?

Llamarble, The only way I see to save the town is not 'discredit your logic', but give you an alternative from my town perspective. I have said no where I consider guthrie/mr wright town, just the fact that nailing the serial killer will be a lot more beneficial then wiping out the last or one of the last mafia members.

also,

"Good logic against Guthrie! You've just got the wrong guy as the doctor/busdriver" is even more damning.

Why are you assuming three scum? This seems like outside knowledge of the number of scum. I'm not sure if there is one or two scum left in this game, and am not about to wildly speculate that there is a scum doctor and busdriver in the mix.

here is what I think the set up is

One Goon
One MAfia RB
ONe SK
ONe Vig
One Town RB
ONe more town pr
six townies

[themanhimself]

VOTE: Guderian
If it's a Guderian, mr wright scum team, then it's far more likely that the power role (mafia roleblocker, busdriver, doctor, whatever) is Guderian because roles can almost never target themselves and it seems likely that Guthrie was targeted last night. If we knock out the power role today we could win this N3 with my night kill.

[Scott Brosius]

Vote Count 13

Fishythefish (1)- Guderian
Guderian (1)- themanhimself
Internet Stranger (1)- Rain
Llamarble (0)-
Mr Wright (2)- Llamarble, Internet Stranger
Rain (0)-
themanhimself (0)-


Not Voting (2)- Fishythefish, Mr Wright

With 7 alive, it's 4 to a lynch. Deadline is December 17 at 11am EST