Mini 1084: The New Jersey Shore (Game Over)

[Guderian]

THEMAN, are you bonkers? For one, the logic makes no sense. A mr wright scum roleblocker could target you and negate your kill. Why do you brush over this when this is the entire reason you are voting me

Second, are you assuming just a scum triplet? No on seems willing or able to answer this. What is up with the two kills last night then?

I think mr wright is the scum rb and fishy is the sk. I think there is amble proof for this. I'm not sure why you're so quick to try and get a mislynch going here.

[Internet Stranger]

I dont know what kind of drugs Rain is on. Dude, youre being ridiculous. Youre clearly trying to start an off wagon when there is no point in doing so, and youre doing it when you got called out on for lurking. I would so have you lynched right now if it wasnt for the fact that others look scummier right now.

I like the links between Guderian and the other scum. But, there isnt any hard fact associated with his scumminess. Meaning that we are using circumstantial evidence on Guderian when we have a hard fact on Mr. Wright (NK failed). I dont think TMH got roleblocked by chkflip, it wouldnt make much sense for chkflip to do so. So, I think there is some sort of evil nefarious role at play messing with us at night. Its likely to be guderian, but why not lynch the toadie that we are more sure on instead? (Mr. Wright).

I find it suspicious for anyone to get away from that fact, despite of all the knowledge we are "discovering" (That be you, TMH). Usually when a sure wagon is rolling and gaining steam, its the best time for the scum to plant all sorts of misinformation since people tend to not think about anything except for the scum thats about to be lynched. So be wary of whatever you link as fact the next day (That be you Llamarble).

I still have suspicions on Jase, (now Mr Fish) though. Its possible you hammered to end the day and cut off the flow to information, but disguised it as an oops hammer.

I am not changing my vote from Mr. Wright, something peculiar happened with his night kill and I want to know why.

[Guderian]

Hanzo

wagon revisited:

On: themanhimself,

Carrotcake

, Guthrie/wright, Internet Stranger,

chkflip,

Guderian, Hanzo_5

Off: Jase/fish,

Chaotic Neutrality,

Rain, Llamarble,

xsrk

Carrot Wagon:

On: themanhimself,

chkflip, Guderian, xsrk,

Internet Stranger, jase/Fishythefish

Off:

Carrotcake

, Guthrie/wright, Rain, Llamarble

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ONLY PERSON who was on the town mislynch who was off the scum lynch: guthrie/wright

unvote

Vote: Mr. Wright

[themanhimself]

THEMAN, are you bonkers? For one, the logic makes no sense. A mr wright scum roleblocker could target you and negate your kill. Why do you brush over this when this is the entire reason you are voting me

Second, are you assuming just a scum triplet? No on seems willing or able to answer this. What is up with the two kills last night then?

I think mr wright is the scum rb and fishy is the sk. I think there is amble proof for this. I'm not sure why you're so quick to try and get a mislynch going here.

An MW scum-RB does requires a serial killer as well as scum and a vig which doesn't fit with night one having one kill at all. Really, what you just said is "bonkers". It makes no sense and is clearly an attempt at misdirection.

Scum triplets are most common in 12 player games, the numbers just work out really well. How would having three scum change the number of kills? One scum family is one night-kill regardless of how many scum are in the family.

How am I trying to get a quick mislynch going by jumping off the wagon onto someone with no votes? That makes no sense and seems to me like you're over-exaggerating the votes against you because you're more aware of them because you're scum.

[themanhimself]

I also *really* dislike the way you put your own name in green on a lot of levels.

[Guderian]

I know scum triplets are mosts common in 12 person games, thats actually what I expect. However, I see no other way to explain the two kills last night. And the death of a town rb seems to lend weight to the fact this game may have a lot of killing. I would not be surprised if there was a town doc as well. It is highly probable that chk rbed the killing scum or the SK n1, and there was some sort of mafia doc/doc protection as well, and n2 the SK and mafia killed someone and you got RB by the scum rb.

Clearly you dont know what I am saying about the scum numbers. It is unknown if there IS TWO OR THREE scum in the group if there is also a serial killer in this game.

either of these would make sense. 8:3:1, 9:2:1

[Guderian]

also, if i know I am 100% town, why In gods name wouldn't I put my name in green?

[Llamarble]

I agree with IS. Rain makes no sense.
If he's assuming no SK/vig combo, then one of Guthrie/TMH essentially must be evil, so why isn't he voting them?
The hard evidence is indeed against Guthrie.
Guderian's RB scenario is plausible, in which case we have no night action information about anyone except TMH.
But just like with carrot yesterday if we have 2 cases, one in which player X is sure to be scum and the other in which all players are equally likely,
then we lynch player X, who is Guthrie here.
Posting/day behavior also implicates Guthrie, who as has been mentioned was both pro hanzo lynch and ignored the carrot lynch.

The only other lynch even worthy of consideration is Guderian, since he placed vote L-1 on Hanzo,
and used fuzzy math to paint TMH as likelier scum than carrot even while voting Carrot (!!)
If we were sure there was a scum RB and Guthrie being targeted had nothing to do with whether Guthrie is scum, I would want to lynch Guderian.
But since there are several likely Guthriescum scenarios and Guthrie is pretty scummy himself, I don't see how we have a choice.

[Llamarble]

By the way

Mr W is at L-1 now

No excuses for quickhammering today.
Also Mr. W should claim.

[Guderian]

which part of my math did you find fuzzy?

[Fishythefish]

So, what fits here? I’m going to assume there aren’t town-sided PRs with an undeclared hand in this. If there are, they really need to speak up.

- TMH vig, there is a SK
In this case, we are missing two kills from N1. The scum/SK could have crosskilled on CN, or chkflip could have blocked one of those kills, or something altogether different could have happened. At any rate, in this case either TMH was roleblocked by scum N1 and N2 (which doesn’t point to any alignment for Mr Wright), or scum have a doctor who protected CC and MW (which makes MW scum). Other scenarios are just about possible, but less likely because they rely on the N1 and N2 failures of TMH’s kills being coincidental.

- TMH vig, no SK
In this case, the scum must have a driver, or else we couldn’t have had those kills N2. They almost certainly don’t have a roleblocker – or they’d have blocked TMH N2. This points pretty well to MW scum – a driver would generally bus a scum with a townie.

- TMH SK, no vig
Doesn't seem to explain anything particularly well.

Nothing really new there, just going through things for myself. It’s likely enough that MW is scum that I’m ready for his claim.

@Guderian: any response to what I had to say about your attack on me?

I still have suspicions on Jase, (now Mr Fish) though. Its possible you hammered to end the day and cut off the flow to information, but disguised it as an oops hammer.

The flow of information was hardly torrential, and there was a pretty certain lynch lined up. Doesn't seem like something scum would actually do.

[Mr Wright]

Before I begin my analysis of the current situation, I would like to point out that the voters on my wagon are playing very risky for no real reason. This game has already had two unexpected quickhammers, it might just happen again. So I would like to ask one of the voters on my wagon to remove their vote. I know where you stand, L-1 is not necessary.

First, my defense.

It is hard to make a proper defense since there is no case against me. Most of the accusations are based on the fact that Guthrie was wrong on two occasions. I'd like to remind you that being wrong is a weak scumtell at best. Scumhunting is done by finding contradictions and inconsistencies. Actually, attacking bad players is a signature move of scum.

Llamarble, in post 265 you accuse me of being scum on the basis of a few setup possibilities. However, you have no proof to back up your theories. You only have one powerrole flip and the word of a not confirmed player. Your accusation is built of guesses and WIFOM. Similarly, in post 267 you speak of Carrot/Guderian/Guthrie scumlinks. The problem here is that you looked at the posts of this trio with only one perception: These players are scum. If you tried hard enough, you could find numerous scumlinks between any pair of players. In short, I'd like to advice you to use a neutral perspective. It's no use to scumhunt if you're locked in one point of view.

In summary: There is no case.

Themanhimself: Serial Killer

Themanhimself claimed vigilante in the belief that his kill did not succeed because Carrotcake was a godfather. However, it turned out Carrotcake was just a goon. This shows the Carrotcake lynch was just

a fluke

. Do not forget this.
The fact that two players died during Night 2 shows that there is indeed a second killing role in the game. But that only proves half of Themanhimself's claim. Sure, he does have a killpower. But what about his alignment? He could be a town vigilante, but he could also be a serial killer who sought town credibility by exposing a godfather.

I believe he is a serial killer.

Take a look at what we know of the setup so far. We have two vanilla townies, one town voteblocker, and one mafia goon. As you know, town roleblocker is a

very

powerful role, much more than mafia roleblocker. If a town roleblocker targets the killing mafioso, he can deny the mafia of their nightkill. To be honest, I am quite surprised to see such a role in a 9-3 minigame. But what surprises me even more is that Themanhimself claims to have another superrole: Vigilante. If done right, at night the town can stop the mafia kill and do a kill of its own. Doesn't this appear strange to anyone?
But there is an explanation for this scenario. A town roleblocker may be misplaced in a 9-3, but it's actually quite fitting in a 9-2-1 with a serial killer, since the roleblocker will not be able to block both killers. We know that the town roleblocker exists in this game. So who would be our prime candidate for serial killer? That is of course Themanhimself, the player who claims to have the second kill power.
What further proves this theory is the timing of Themanhimself's claim. After a very short Day 1, one would hope for a good Day 2 full of content. Instead, Themanhimself claims early and pushes the Carrotcake lynch. Why claim? He had three weeks to get Carrotcake lynched without revealing his role. Additonally, he does not claim immediately on Day 2, he only claims after people get suspicious of him.

Fishythefish: Scum

Fishythefish is my prime scum suspect at the moment.
Post 243 is very shaky. Quickhammers are always suspicious, and this one is no exception. In my first post, I asked Fishythefish two questions, of which only the second was important: Why did you put Carrotcake at L-1? He did not answer.
The problem here is that there was absolutely no reason to put Carrotcake at L-1. The town had already agreed on a Carrotcake lynch, the pressure was on. Putting Carrotcake on L-1 could only have one consequence: A scum quickhammering to limit discussion even further. Carrotcake was doomed anyway, so why give town the chance to talk all they want? My theory is that Fishythefish intended to hammer for the reason I just described.
Could it really be just a mistake? That's a possibility, though a hard to believe one. Our moderator had posted the votecount just three posts earlier. When questioned about why Fishythefish thought Llamarble's vote was on Carrotcake, he is vague and makes a guess about what makes him think that. It appears to me that if you discover you just made a

huge

mistake, and post 'I am an idiot' just two minutes after it, you know quite clearly what you did wrong.

Other players

Let's start with Rain.

Rain, I am not happy with the frequency and length of your posts. They are few and short. However, the content of our posts seem good, they show you have put some serious thought into this game. That's why I'm confused why you've not taken a lot more initiative in this game. You don't help the town out at all and post just enough to not be labeled a lurker. You know who use this strategy? Scum.
Your last post also contains an awkard statement:

Actually, we have no clear indication that TMH is vig, he can easily be SK. In either case he's clearly non-scum, so might as well treat him as town.

Why should we ever treat an anti-town powerrole as town? A serial killer is not interested in helping the town out, he's only interested in survival. Will he help the town? Never. Will he give his support to any lynch? Always.
It is common for serial killer to be unkillable during the night. If Themanhimself is a serial killer and we give him a free pass during the day, he essantially auto-wins.
I don't see a townie making this mistake easily. However, it's perfectly reasonable for scum. As a mafioso, you don't want to be the target of the serial killer. By giving Themanhimself a free pass, you ensure he will never target you.

To be continued

Unfortunately, I don't have the time to write more. But in short, I've already listed my main suspects above. I do not see any major problems with the other players.

[Guderian]

Fishy:

@Guderian: about my reaction seeming "ingenuine": any reason for this? Saying I said 'opps did I hammer lol jk!' is a total misrepresentation of my post. I've explained why I made my mistake; I thought Llamarble had unvoted. If you don't think that's a credible mistake to make

No, I dont think thats a credible mistake to make. Reading the game is essential to town, not essential to you who just wants a lynch (whatever you are, the SK or mafia.)

[Fishythefish]

Fishy:

@Guderian: about my reaction seeming "ingenuine": any reason for this? Saying I said 'opps did I hammer lol jk!' is a total misrepresentation of my post. I've explained why I made my mistake; I thought Llamarble had unvoted. If you don't think that's a credible mistake to make

No, I dont think thats a credible mistake to make. Reading the game is essential to town, not essential to you who just wants a lynch (whatever you are, the SK or mafia.)

Have you never seen a town player accidentally hammer?

[themanhimself]

I really don't see fishy's quick hammer as scum at all unless he's a serial killer, which I think is a really slim possibility. Why would scum quick hammer scum? That makes absolutely no sense. If carrot had flipped town it would have been an entirely different story, but since he turned out to be mafia it's the move that would make the

least

sense for fishy. I find anyone who calls out fishy for this to be super scummy themselves since it basically boils down to defending proven scum.

IS, I loathe to utter these words, but you're right. A mr wright lynch makes more sense today because lynching guderian would be assuming that mr wright is scum when it isn't yet proven. I don't want to quick hammer again though so let's at least get a role claim out of him first.

MW, your entire argument against me is that I can't prove my alignment so I might as well be a serial killer. That makes no sense at all. In fact, all of the odds are in favor of me being pro-town. I caught scum, I (mostly) proved my night ability and I targeted someone that was heavily believed to be scum on D2 and was at one point not far from a lynch. It's not a smart move for a serial killer to target mafia after he's claimed vig because then he has no explanation for why the game is still going on after the last scum has been lynched and he's still getting a kill per night. Not to mention, I put out my case against carrot cake at a time when I was barely under any suspicion at all. You say I pushed a quick wagon but all I did was outline the evidence and cast my vote, the rest was five other players and their votes. I could have waited two weeks and six days to claim but for all I knew we could have been well on our way to a mislynch by then and if I felt certain that I had scum, then why would I hold out on that info? If your argument is applied more broadly it essentially implies that no one should start making cases until the day is well under way which is clearly a mislynch breeding ground and also a rule you yourself have violated by making three different cases so early in day one. This reeks of the desperation of scum trying to wriggle out of their own lynch as does your calm, cool and reasoned appeal for someone to unvote you so we're not so close to a lynch.

[themanhimself]

Let me rephrase that last line, so close to

your

lynch.

[Llamarble]

TLDR:
Guderian's math suggesting TMH was more likely scum than carrot made no sense.
And even though Guderian presumably thought it made sense (or was just scum making #^&*$ up),
he kept his vote on carrot to not look scummy.
Fishy hammered right after Guderian's math post which makes no sense to me as an intentional scum action.
I want to know what Guderian was actually trying to calculate there.


I am bold.

which part of my math did you find fuzzy?

You posted the following, implying TMH is likelier scum than carrot, on page 10, just before Fishy hammered.
Unless you and fish are scum together and he was trying to save you from yourself,
I don't see Fishscum quickhammering after a player makes a post implying his buddy is town.

None of the math done here is relevant / makes any sense.

And also, If i am correct, this setup has been reviewed by three competent players to ensure fairness and win-ability for all. Therefore, it is HIGHLY unlikely we would have three killing roles a night, i.e. SK mafia and vig. That would put town at LYLO potentially d2. I would think it is safe to say that there is no SK.

I guess you've changed your mind about that.

I also ran a few percentages about what I think of the current situations.
Carrot is in the mafia, is the godfather, and got targeted by the vig 3/10 x 1/3 x 10/10 = 10%

What you calculated here is that there's a 10% chance of having a vig nokill by targeting a GF assuming there's a vig and a GF.
This calculation doesn't say anything about what TMH/Carrot's likelihoods of being scum are.
The probabilities of a vig or a NK immune GF being in any given game are also not 1.
You also make different assumptions for all of your calculations that have varying probabilities of being true,
so your percentages actually have little to do with each other.
What did you expect to infer from them?

If you want to use probability to make inferences about players' alignments based on their actions, please use Bayes' theorem.
The probability of any random player being scum is about 30%, so your numbers are misleading.

Carrot is NOT in the mafia, got doc protected, and got targeted by vig 7/10 x 1/9 x 10/10 = 7.778%

Assumes a doctor exists

Carrot is NOT in the mafia, TMH got roleblocked, and got targeted by vig 7/10 x 1/9 x 10/10 = 7.778%

Assumes a roleblocker exists

Carrot is NOT in the mafia, no doc protection, TMH is the mafia 7/10 x 8/9 x 3/10 = 18.6%

Why on earth does doc protection matter if TMH is mafia?
This assumes TMHscum would randomly select a victim as opposed to taking Carrot's alignment into account, which is a terrible assumption.
It also assumes TMHscum will claim vig in this situation 100% of the time,
which is also a terrible assumption since this is not a standard scum play.

Anyway, it seems you think TMHscum is twice as likely as Carrotscum. Why vote Carrot then?

Carrot and TMH are in the mafia 3/10 x 2/9 = 6.66%

Again fails to take TMH's likelihood of choosing a townie when making a vig fakeclaim at this point.
The probability scumTMH does this to his partner is almost zero because he won't have NKs to prove his role and he loses a buddy.

[Fishythefish]

Fishythefish: Scum

Fishythefish is my prime scum suspect at the moment.
Post 243 is very shaky. Quickhammers are always suspicious, and this one is no exception. In my first post, I asked Fishythefish two questions, of which only the second was important: Why did you put Carrotcake at L-1? He did not answer.
The problem here is that there was absolutely no reason to put Carrotcake at L-1. The town had already agreed on a Carrotcake lynch, the pressure was on. Putting Carrotcake on L-1 could only have one consequence: A scum quickhammering to limit discussion even further. Carrotcake was doomed anyway, so why give town the chance to talk all they want? My theory is that Fishythefish intended to hammer for the reason I just described.
Could it really be just a mistake? That's a possibility, though a hard to believe one. Our moderator had posted the votecount just three posts earlier. When questioned about why Fishythefish thought Llamarble's vote was on Carrotcake, he is vague and makes a guess about what makes him think that. It appears to me that if you discover you just made a

huge

mistake, and post 'I am an idiot' just two minutes after it, you know quite clearly what you did wrong.

Missed that second question (well, actually I saw it and then forgot to answer it). It's explained in my (turned out to be) hammer post. I was ready for a Carrotcake claim and lynch.

Again, stifling discussion would be a move that just wouldn't be worth it for scum in that position.

It's difficult to remember exactly what was going through your mind a week ago. I think it's fairly obviously not true that just because you make a mistake you can remember exactly the chain of thought that led you to make it. I remember that Llamarble's post made me think he was unvoting Carrotcake; asking why I thought

that

is asking me to recall what was going on in my head pretty precisely at a time when I clearly wasn't thinking that hard (since I made the mistake).

@TMH: can you kill yourself at night?

[themanhimself]

Though going into bayes' theorem here might be a little overkill, you can't expect every single player to keep up on their conditional probabilities as well as you obviously have, the general thought that the post in question is not helpful to the town at all is a valid one.

And yes, you are bold.

Preview edit: not mentioned in my role description and I'm not eager to find out frankly.

[Guderian]

1. If anything, I implied carrot was a more likely scum, coming out with a higher percentage 3/4 times.

2. I have changed my mind on SK due to the unexplained night kill from last night

3. I also said

some other possibilities but did not see fit to go [calculate] there [them]

implying that there was the possibility of other things but did not want to waste my time with them. I have since been vindicated with the town roleblocker so I fail to see you point as it was speculated at the time as well.

4.

What you calculated here is that there's a 10% chance of having a vig nokill by targeting a GF assuming there's a vig and a GF.

Isn't that what we were assuming?

In conclusion, I ran a few simulations, DIDNT EXPLICITLY claim anything off them one way or the other, and left them out there for the public to see on day 2. Since CC has flipped scum, most of those go out the window, and I'm happy for that.

[Fishythefish]

@TMH: I'm not asking you to try. Please ask the mod, though.

[themanhimself]

@Guderian,
But with a target switcher there's not an unexplained kill last night

[Guderian]

If there is such a role that moves the target of your kill to another (which Is a possibility) I admit that there could be no serial killer and just a 3 man scum team. That would be true.

In which case the scum trio would be
goon
mafia doc
mafia switcher?

Is that what you're saying? I admit thats a possibility.

But to not speculate about SK could bring disastrous results.

[Llamarble]

The switching role is typically called a busdriver I think.
One explanation for what has happened so far is the following:
Mafia goon, mafia busdriver, additional scum of unspecified role
Vig, RB, misc unrevealed town PR
6 VTs

My read on Chkflip is that he targeted Guthrie N1.
Mafia Busdriver could have redirected Chkflips roleblock off Guthrie onto TMH.
N2 the BD could have redirected TMH's kill off Guthrie onto Chkflip or Xsrk.
That accounts for all NKs without the SK + Vig + mafia combo.
It does require Guthriescum.


Other players should read Chkflip too, since if there is an SK it seems likely Chkflip targeted them N1.
And MW should really claim.

[Rain]

The reason why I choose to disregard TMH, assuming he's SK, is that he still has a chance to NK scum whereas we can't. I find it more productive to find scum first, then lynch TMH once the scums are dead.

Assuming no Vig+SK, why does "one of Guthrie/TMH essentially must be evil"? I've already said TMH is obvtown (or at least, definitely non-scum), Guthrie just seems to be the target of the busdriver. I'm not saying Guthrie is town, he could be scum. I'm saying Guthrie/Wright isn't necessarily scum simply because he survived the NK. Our current situation is different from D2 with Carrotscum because we didn't have a vig-claim and only one person died during N1.

I see that voting for IS is not the smartest thing to do right now.

I agree with TMH, with less Guthrie/Wright and more Guderian.

Unvote
Vote: Guderian