Mini 1084: The New Jersey Shore (Game Over)

[Mr Wright]

The switching role is typically called a busdriver I think.
One explanation for what has happened so far is the following:
Mafia goon, mafia busdriver, additional scum of unspecified role
Vig, RB, misc unrevealed town PR
6 VTs

My read on Chkflip is that he targeted Guthrie N1.
Mafia Busdriver could have redirected Chkflips roleblock off Guthrie onto TMH.
N2 the BD could have redirected TMH's kill off Guthrie onto Chkflip or Xsrk.
That accounts for all NKs without the SK + Vig + mafia combo.
It does require Guthriescum.

Llamarble, your theory is flawed. We are playing a mini

normal

game. This means the game setup is limited by the official rules set for normal games. Those rules can be found here. I would like to draw your attention to this area:

# Mechanics which are explicitly Non-Normal include:

* Those affecting a role's alignment (no Cults).
* Anything which significantly affects the core mechanic of majority/plurality lynches (no Kingmaker, for example).
* Anything resolving with a random element, with the exception of missed night choices. It must be included in the public ruleset if you are resolving night choices in this way.
* Post Restrictions (other than those included in the ruleset, such as "No quoting your Role PM").
* Lying to the players, including False Role Reveals and "Scum Masons".
* Night action redirection (no Bus Driver, Lightning Rod, Nexus, or Redirector).
* Alignments other than Mafia/Werewolf, Pro-Town, and Serial Killer (no Survivor, Lyncher, or Jester).

Do you see it? Bus Drivers are not allowed. Redirectors are not allowed.

Night action redirection is not allowed

.
What does this mean? It means Themanhimself's Night two kill could not have been redirected. This leaves us with two possibilities:

- Themanhimself's kill failed again and there is actually a third killing role in our game. Possible, but very unlikely. Three killers in a twelve player game is extremely swingy, and it would also mean two killers were blocked during Night one.
- Themanhimself is lying. He did not target me during Night two. Why would he be lying? Very simple: He's a serial killer. He wants everyone dead. He killed chkflip or xsrk during Night two and is now trying to set up an easy lynch by saying I was his target.

I do not see any room for doubt here.

Vote: Themanhimself

[themanhimself]

MW, your argument is hugely flawed. Though I cannot account for the lack of a busdriver (I'm sure llamarble will be able to come up with something, he's better at that than I am), that's your entire argument for me being a serial killer. The simple fact of the matter is that I would have no reason to lie about targeting chkflip, I several times said that I believed he was scum and was voting him for a while as well. In fact, a chkflip NK probably would have been supported going into N2. There's simply no reason to lie about it.

Furthermore, Scott is an experienced mod, there's no guarantee he's completely bound by the no-busdriver rule, though I would admittedly find it weird if he wasn't.

Once again you did not role claim and since you keep trying to re-direct your guilt onto me I'm oh-so-willing to hammer. We want a role claim MW, further stalling will be seen as a scum move.

[Scott Brosius]

Vote Count 14

Fishythefish (0)-
Guderian (2)- themanhimself, Rain
Internet Stranger (0)-
Llamarble (0)-
Mr Wright (3)- Llamarble, Internet Stranger, Guderian
Rain (0)-
themanhimself (1)- Mr Wright


Not Voting (1)- Fishythefish

With 7 alive, it's 4 to a lynch. Deadline is December 17 at 11am EST

[Rain]

I'm now really confused about my role because I targeted Guthrie/mr. wright last night......

The simple fact of the matter is that I would have no reason to lie about targeting chkflip

slip much?

Mr. Wright's argument is not flawed at all; in fact his "entire argument" is pretty compelling. However, all this does is reinforce (TMH != Vig && TMH == SK), not so much hinting Mr. Wright's innocence.

[themanhimself]

I'm now really confused about my role because I targeted Guthrie/mr. wright last night......

The simple fact of the matter is that I would have no reason to lie about targeting chkflip

slip much?

I don't see how this constitutes a slip at all really, I targeted Guthrie, but if I had targeted chkflip I would have had no reason to lie about it.

[Fishythefish]

Do you see it? Bus Drivers are not allowed. Redirectors are not allowed.

Night action redirection is not allowed

.

This is a very good point. When did these rules come into effect (I believe it was recently - may be touch and go if it affects this game)?

@TMH: pretty sure these rules are firm.

Still, I really can't see why hypothetical SK-TMH would be lying about last night's target. It's not like he was in any danger of being lynched. I'd guess TMH is still a vig, and there is a SK somewhere else.

This doesn't affect my read on MW significantly.

[Fishythefish]

In fact,

@mod:

were you bound by the new Mini Normal rules in creating this setup?

Also, in order to ensure that normal games stay "normal," we require that set-ups be evaluated for balance and flavor.

[Guderian]

alright, a few things need to be clarified here.

Mr. wright, though you may have found a crucial flaw in llamarbles argument, you still have three votes on you and not so much a porposition of who is scummier than you are. I see this as a rather light strawman, Instead of refuting the argument why you ARE SCUM, you refute the fact that there is no busdriver.

If thats the case, what does it mean?

I'm not really sure of what rain has been doing today. In his last post he outlines :

Mr. Wright's argument is not flawed at all; in fact his "entire argument" is pretty compelling. However, all this does is reinforce (TMH != Vig && TMH == SK), not so much hinting Mr. Wright's innocence.

Suggesting the idea he thinks that TMH is a SK and MR. Wright is a the mafia. But lets look at his voting patterns of the day:

In either case he's clearly non-scum, so might as well treat him as town.
Vote: Internet Stranger

I agree with TMH, with less Guthrie/Wright and more Guderian.

Unvote
Vote: Guderian

Looks pretty scum motivated to me.

theman is kinda derping around today, but so far it looks slightly town sided. I see no reason for him to lie about his nightkill.

In conclusion I am back to think that there are three killing roles along with mafia and town docs and some roleblockers thrown in.

actually rereading wright for this post has convinced me of his scuminess again. Though llamarble needs to redefine his position.

[xsrk]

Hey all, I think I need a replacement. The semester's almost over, and I've got too much IRL to spend more than a minute or two on anything non-school related...

[Guderian]

dont worry you're dead.

[Fishythefish]

So, no bus drivers then (my question was actually a chronological one - were the rules in force when this got reviewed - but that answers that).

I'm ready for an MW lynch. His scumpoints from not being killed again outweigh anything else in the game by some margin.

@MW:

Claim in your next post, or I will hammer you.

[Mr Wright]

Hammers and roleclaim

Themanhimself and Fishythefish are threatening to hammer me if I don't claim. I would like to ask, why? Is my roleclaim so important to you? Will you change your mind depending on my role? I don't think so. You're accusing me of being alive because I survived the nightkill, whatever role I claim shouldn't make a difference to you.
The majority of the players have asked for a long day to actually have discussion as opposed to earlier days. Discussion is the most important weapon of the town. Yet here you two are, expressing your willingness to hammer after a mere four days. If you want to lynch me, I can't stop you. But why deprive the town of another day of discussion? Fishythefish, you have complimented me on my 'no bus driver' find, yet you seem to want me dead as soon as possible. Why is that?

In my opinion, it is no coincedence that the two players I'm attacking are the hammer happy people. Pure speculation, but something to keep in mind.

There is no reason to roleclaim now, it will only help scum figuring out the role distribution. Unfortunately, I don't have a choice.

My role is vanilla townie.

Themanhimself

MW, your argument is hugely flawed. Though I cannot account for the lack of a busdriver (I'm sure llamarble will be able to come up with something, he's better at that than I am), that's your entire argument for me being a serial killer. The simple fact of the matter is that I would have no reason to lie about targeting chkflip, I several times said that I believed he was scum and was voting him for a while as well. In fact, a chkflip NK probably would have been supported going into N2. There's simply no reason to lie about it.

So you're saying that my theory is flawed because you don't have a motive. As a serial killer, you have no reason to lie about your target.
False.
A serial killer has the same goals as scum: Surviving and killing the other players. So, who is a serial killer going to kill? He is going to kill the players who are the biggest threats to his survival. Those biggest threats are good players and hard to lynch players. Was Guthrie such a threat? No, quite the opposite. He was not a good player, and his reputation was horrible. The serial killer would waste his kill on Guthrie. Rather, he would kill a player who wasn't suspicious at all, like chkflip or xsrk.
But Themanhimself, you have already claimed your role. You had to explain your kill choices to the town. Going into Night 2, Guthrie seemed the most plausible kill for a vigilante. But of course, killing him would be a waste of your kill. So you killed chkflip or xsrk, told the town you targeted me, and blamed the mafia. Not only did this give you a good excuse, it also frames the player with the worst reputation.


Town, allow me to summarize the Themanhimself case for you. It is very important that you understand that he is a serial killer, and that if he is a serial killer,

I can not be guilty of surviving a nightkill I was never the target of

.

- Themanhimself has claimed vigilante, but there is zero proof of this. He has found scum, but this does not prove anything about his alignment. A serial killer wants the mafia dead, too. The only thing we know is that Themanhimself has a kill power.
- A setup with a town vigilante and a town roleblocker against one anti-town faction is highly unlikely, The town could stop the mafiakill and have a kill of its own instead.
- A setup with a town vigilante, a serial killer and the mafia is highly unlikely. Not only is a twelve player game with three killers extremely swingy, but Themanhimself would also have had to survive Night 2 despite having his vigilante role known to two killers.
- There is only one remaining possibility: We are in a setup with a serial killer and the mafia.
- Themanshimself claimed he killed me Night two, but I didn't die, there were two kills tonight, and redirectors are not possible.
- Conclusion 1: Themanhimself is the serial killer.
- Conclusion 2: I was not targeted by a kill tonight. I didn't 'survive' anything.

Town. You have to make a choice.

It is my word against that of Themanhimself. Only one of us can speak the truth.
Themanhimself gives you a nice gift: A dead mafia goon. I give you my theory: An airtight case based on logic.

Make your choice.

[Fishythefish]

The majority of the players have asked for a long day to actually have discussion as opposed to earlier days. Discussion is the most important weapon of the town. Yet here you two are, expressing your willingness to hammer after a mere four days. If you want to lynch me, I can't stop you. But why deprive the town of another day of discussion? Fishythefish, you have complimented me on my 'no bus driver' find, yet you seem to want me dead as soon as possible. Why is that?

I really don't see any reason to delay the claim beyond the point where I'm sure who I want to lynch. Discussion when a lynch is obviously lined up tends not to be that interesting. I think your arguments that TMH is the SK are wrong (although a new one you bring up is interesting - see below), and I'm sure I want to lynch you today. If other people on your wagon aren't ready for the lynch, they shouldn't be on your wagon at L-1 with people saying they want a claim.

- Themanhimself has claimed vigilante, but there is zero proof of this. He has found scum, but this does not prove anything about his alignment. A serial killer wants the mafia dead, too. The only thing we know is that Themanhimself has a kill power.
- A setup with a town vigilante and a town roleblocker against one anti-town faction is highly unlikely, The town could stop the mafiakill and have a kill of its own instead.
- A setup with a town vigilante, a serial killer and the mafia is highly unlikely. Not only is a twelve player game with three killers extremely swingy, but Themanhimself would also have had to survive Night 2 despite having his vigilante role known to two killers.
- There is only one remaining possibility: We are in a setup with a serial killer and the mafia.
- Themanshimself claimed he killed me Night two, but I didn't die, there were two kills tonight, and redirectors are not possible.
- Conclusion 1: Themanhimself is the serial killer.
- Conclusion 2: I was not targeted by a kill tonight. I didn't 'survive' anything.

Town. You have to make a choice.

It is my word against that of Themanhimself. Only one of us can speak the truth.
Themanhimself gives you a nice gift: A dead mafia goon. I give you my theory: An airtight case based on logic.

Make your choice.

Not sure either way about the unlikeliness of the setup. I'd guess 3 killing roles is rare, but not completely unheard of (the possibility of that is why your case isn't "airtight"). TMH surviving night 2

is

odd, and that's an aspect I haven't been thinking about.

Suppose TMH is SK. Can you explain why he'd do what he's done? On day 2, he outed himself as a killing role, which has the potential to draw counterclaims, kills, roleblocks, investigations (particularly if wrong about CC), not to mention lynches after the scumteam is gone. On day 3, he made an unnecessary claim that he targeted you, when he was in zero danger of a lynch. It might well become clear that he was lying. Why not sit back and enjoy the ride, with the town thinking it's up against only a scumteam?

It comes down to this: is it more likely that the mod would put three killers into a game, or that TMH would be playing this ridiculous strategy as SK? I think the first is much more likely.

[themanhimself]

But you claim chkflip and xsrk were helpful players and would be hard to lynch players and that's where I find fault in your argument. Xsrk lurked which makes him both suspicious and non-helpful. Chkflip played incredibly suspiciously and was already under the scrutiny of several players. Again,

I would have had no reason to lie about targeting either one of them.

Your role claim is completely unhelpful, your attacks on me are without merit, you've yet to actually argue against your own scumminess (merely trying to point it out in others) and you survived my NK-attempt which led us to scum yesterday so I'm going to go ahead and hammer here.

VOTE: Mr. Wright

[Mr Wright]

The irony of this situation is that I replaced Guthrie because he seemed obviously town to me (I like playing as town).

Anyway, I had a good time. Good luck, town.

[themanhimself]

Were you town?

[themanhimself]

Oh, and thanks for replacing, awards should be given to all replacements, the whole site would crash without them

[Scott Brosius]

Vote Count 15

Fishythefish (0)-
Guderian (1)- Rain
Internet Stranger (0)-
Llamarble (0)-
Mr Wright (4)- Llamarble, Internet Stranger, Guderian, themanhimself
Rain (0)-
themanhimself (1)- Mr Wright


Not Voting (1)- Fishythefish

Having enough of Mr Wright even though he seemingly just arrived, the gang heads to the dunk tank to get some answers. He swears he doesn't know anything but they keep dunking him in and out in and out until he talks. Eventually, he doesn't pop back up to the surface. They check his body for any signs of being an outsider but find nothing interesting.

Mr Wright,

Vanilla Townie

has been lynched![/b]

Night 3 begins! Deadline for night actions is December 10 at 1pm EST. This is a 72 hour deadline, I will shorten it at my discretion given there are only 6 players left.

[Scott Brosius]

The group decides to go to the aquarium. As you are perusing the sharks, you see a body floating in the tank! It's poor Guderian, sporting his I LOVE NEW JERSEY shirt.

Angry at more deaths of native New Jerseyians, the group decides to take out their frustrations on the "Shoot the Guido" booth. Basically you get a paintball gun and attempt to shoot the moving greasy orange gentleman. However, you notice a body in the corner, not glowing orange from spray tan. It's the body of Internet Stranger! Searching his body you find a gun but also an outline of NJ tattooed on his back.

Internet Stranger,

One-Shot Vigilante

has been killed![/b]

Guderian,

Vanilla Townie

has been killed![/b]

Vote Count 16

Fishythefish (0)-
Llamarble (0)-
Rain (0)-
themanhimself (0)-


Not Voting (4)- Fishythefish, Llamarble, Rain, themanhimself

Day 4 begins! 2-week deadline that can be extended at my discretion. With 4 alive, it's 3 to a lynch. Deadline is December 22 at 11am EST.

[Rain]

So... TMH = SK, Fishy = Town, Llamarble = scum RB?

I'll probably vote for Llamarble today, but I'm not quite sure whether it's LyLo or MyLo here...

[Fishythefish]

At this point, I have to eat my words - it seems extremely likely that TMH is a SK. Vig + 1-shot vig + roleblocker doesn't sound like a real set of town power roles, particularly as there is probably only one scum left (if there are 2, we are most likely dead anyway). I can't see what good a lynch will do us in this situation - kill one scum and the other wins. I say we no lynch.

[themanhimself]

I killed Guderian last night. If there are two scum left (assuming a three scum family) then lynching me is game over. If we lynch me then that presumably leaves one town and two scum tonight, the scum kill the townie and win. We either have to lynch scum or no lynch for the town to win. Our best shot is for me to hit scum tonight.

[themanhimself]

Until I have reads on people, VOTE: No lynch.

@mod
Do we need a full majority (3 people) or just half (2 people) to do a no-lynch? I couldn't quite understand the difference between majority and full majority in the rules.

[Scott Brosius]

Well, it should be 2 to a no-lynch, given that if 2 people are voting for a no-lynch, a lynch will never be possible anyway. So 3 to lynch, 2 to no-lynch.

[themanhimself]

Thanks for the clarification