Newbie 1045: Christmas in Newbieville! (Mafia Win!)

[Korts]

Hi, people, I'm Korts, your less experienced SE for this game. However, to avoid confusion, I'm more than qualified to be your IC, so please, don't treat my opinion as inferior. Seems obvious, I know, but I've had trouble thanks to this before.

Spoiler: NEWBIES: FOR YOUR EYES ONLY

There are a couple suggestions I would like to make. First off, feel free to browse the wiki (see link at the top of the page); however, please note that nothing in there is set in stone, any theory you find on there is someone's own opinion and not a general truth.

Also feel free to browse the (if you have time on your hands, I suggest you check out the old board in the Archive section as well); specific threads that I encourage you to read are Commonly Asked Questions on Mafia Theory, Thestatusquo's theory articles, and JDodge's recent series. I'm not that big an MD presence nowadays, though, so please don't treat my suggestions as the only acceptable canon.

I encourage you to read games, too. I may come back later with some game suggestions, but I trust you to use your own judgment. That also applies in general: don't trust what you read, think for yourself. We as IC's (and SE's) are here to guide you through the common mistakes of new mafia players, but we aren't here to be the ultimate arbiters of your thoughts and opinions. Be critical, be analytical and be vocal. And have fun, of course.

ender: no lynching on day one is a very bad decision. For one, you get nothing out of the day, and essentially give a free night kill to the mafia; there would be scenarios where no lynch would be sensible, but if you consider the math, the endgame will be one day sooner, which means one less lynch for town, which means town has less chance for a win.

also ender: it's generally a good idea not to keep your vote to yourself. If you have no suspects, dig around, and the best way to do that is to vote someone and ask some questions. Sensibly, of course, and specifically scumhunting questions.

meanwhile,

vote: Thor

I've never heard of you, yet you're the IC. Explain or die.

[Korts]

Uh, a couple corrections on the links:

Mafia Discussion board
old board in the Archive section

[Korts]

unvote

I disagree, Thor. Fungrus isn't quite as scummy as MrBump. Take a look at how he points out something to be targeted (Fungrus' questionable attack) and dismisses it by voting elsewhere. As it stands MrBump is scummy, and Fungrus too by association.

VOTE: MrBump

[Korts]

I don't like the ender wagon. Yes, his play is terrible, but I'm pretty sure Flay and Thor can back me up that this is typical newbie/sub-par player behavior. Confusion is not a scumtell.

[Korts]

Dear ender.

Mate, i'm not mafia if you wanna vote me then your gonna lose a (fellow? - unsure who your allied with at the moment) townie so i think it's a complete waste of time for voting me as there are more people who are suspicous and actually are mafia.

Stop that. Now. We don't know your alignment, so the argument you present is completely useless.

Read between the lines my friend (not my posts but others).

Uh. No. Sorry, but you're not nearly competent enough not to explain your reasoning. You don't seem to be quite conscious of the effects of your actions, so I want you to be entirely transparent in your actions and logic. Explain everything if asked to, don't be fucking coy.

Love, Korts.

[Korts]

Okay, so for clarity's sake, here's the material I have right now.

Case on Bump. Glass, read this for an explanation for why Fungrus and MrBump may be connected without ender being involved. Fungrus starts the game by explaining to ender that no lynching is bad. MrBump frames Fungrus' argument as "OMGSCUMSLIP, [ender] KNOWS THERE ARE TOWNIES" which, besides being an obvious joke, might be interpreted as MrBump calling Fungrus' argument fallacious. However, Bump's vote goes elsewhere, randomly, instead of going with the Fungrus vote that would logically follow either as a joke or a semi-serious discussion starter. This raises the possibility that Bump is either unconcerned with the level of discussion and the efficiency of scumhunting, or uncomfortable with placing a vote on a scumpartner. Hence Bump is somewhat scummy, and depending on his alignment, Fungrus may be slightly implicated as well.

[Korts]

Oh, I didn't take it seriously. I just felt that would've been a good opportunity to vote.

[Korts]

To clarify: at that game state, with that level of information saturation, it would've been a good play to vote Fungrus for the reason your one-liner outlines.

[Korts]

Sorry about sudden inactivity. Will post tomorrow.

[Korts]

unvote

I'll start catching up.

[Korts]

There are too many categorical statements made about what is and isn't scummy. There are some actions which, in some contexts, make some players somewhat more likely to be scum; however, there is no solid tell ever, nor is there any tell that is independent of circumstances. I want less "A did B, therefore they are scum" and more "A did B, which, considering C and D, can make them look scummier" at least in your thought processes--and until you are experienced enough and comprehend all aspects of actions and consequences, I ask you to post your thought processes instead of a simplified argument. This is not the game state to be honing your persuasive skills in.

I also ask you to be as concise as possible. Brevity is key to keeping the other players and yourself interested in the game.

I know these two requests are somewhat contradictory, but please try to balance them.

[Korts]

The Thor/Glass exchange doesn't really interest me. Nothing in there points to either of them being scum. Just one comment to Thor.

So we already have roughly 1/3 of the available scumtells from 10 pages and you have zero reads?

Information saturation is not a linear process. The amount of information grows exponentially as there is more than one way to respond (including a lack of response) to every bit of pre-existing information. You could try to quantify the difference in information saturation on page 3 and page 10, but it's a pointless exercise in terms of scumhunting: it draws attention away from alignment-relevant analysis.

People who say my case on MrBump doesn't hold any water are probably missing that my case on Bump was that he wasn't voting where it would've stimulated discussion better. Fungrus' alignment is irrelevant insofar as MrBump is concerned. If Fungrus is scum, Bump's reason to vote randomly could've been uneasiness at voting a scumpartner; if Fungrus is town, the reason could've been a lack of interest in scumhunting and thus a lack of insight into proactive voting.

A good counterargument would've been that Bump is simply inexperienced and doesn't see the difference between optimal and sub-optimal votes when regarding something else than actual scumminess. But apparently I couldn't spark even that kind of response, just general confusion. Eh.

By the way, I've kind of missed the other points against Bump amidst trying to make sense of the exchange between Glass and Thor. I don't really have the time at the moment to go back again, could someone summarize?

The *best* you could deduce from the Thor/Glass interaction is that it's probable that we're not scumbuddies as I don't think it should look like the interaction is simple distancing.

Bluh. You should know better than to say things like this. You do

not

analyze your own interactions unless you have an ulterior motive. This just looks like you're trying to give a template to analyzing the exchange between you and Glass.

VOTE: Thor

Flay: why is Bump's "remind me never to make a joke again" comment scummy?

[Korts]

Using the "newbie" argument in favor of MrBump does not really work as he looks as though he has played at least a few games of mafia prior to this.

He seems to be somewhat capable, but my judgement of his play is that he's around his third or fourth game. At that level of experience I don't expect him to look for optimal early-game votes.

[Korts]

Post-New Year's Eve hangover eluded me, so I'll be catching up today.

[Korts]

I would like to draw people's attention to this again. I think this is an important piece of information.

The *best* you could deduce from the Thor/Glass interaction is that it's probable that we're not scumbuddies as I don't think it should look like the interaction is simple distancing.

Bluh. You should know better than to say things like this. You do not analyze your own interactions unless you have an ulterior motive. This just looks like you're trying to give a template to analyzing the exchange between you and Glass.

Note the concern evident in Thor's quote regarding how the argument between him and Glass might have looked. While I'm not saying that town players wouldn't have similar concerns, I think that scum have more reason to actually voice them.

I really would appreciate if more people saw what I'm seeing.

More later.

[Korts]

Bluh. I don't like Lateralus' post 141 where he encourages potential hammer votes to express their intent. It seems completely unnecessary and appears to serve rabble-rousing rather than a genuinely scumhunting-driven lynch. The following vote switch is also very weird, especially in light of his previously apparently rock-solid conviction in Bump's guilt.

So are you discarding your argument about ender's first post being scummy, Korts?

I'm pretty sure I never had such an argument. His post wasn't scummy, it was a typical newbie mistake.

ender is really pinging my scumdar though, in every way possible. His blatantly opportunistic behavior, fallacious arguments and minimal immersion all through the game can be explained away with newbieness, sure, but I'm not willing to give him a free pass all the way and throw the game in a gamble on his alignment. Right about now I could be convinced to do a policy lynch.

Flay 152: I've got a feeling you're deliberately misinterpreting Thor's argument now. Don't tell me you don't see the difference between bad play and scummy play.

Where's Napher? I want to hear loads more from him.

[Korts]

EBWOP: Reading back a second time, it seems that at the time Lateralus called for hammer voters to express their intent, he was voting Flay, not Bump. Why encourage a wagon when you have a completely different list of suspects altogether? Do you just not care who gets lynched?

[Korts]

I will post more soon, I have an exam on Wednesday.

[Korts]

Bleh. Exam period is not the time to be playing mafia.

please replace me

I'm very sorry for this.