Open 274: Game Over!
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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That's what I thought, I just wanted it in print.Alduskkel wrote:Mafia. It's on my wiki page FYI.
I've developed a slight scum read on you based on your interest in the game so far, which has exceeded the standard confirmation post. You vetted the opening posts thoroughly, picking up on tiny typos and grammar errors, and seemed keen to engage in a pregame dialogue. Although this could just be your way, it proves you have invested a decent amount of time (compared to the average player) thinking about the game, which could be tied with your alignment.
Again, this is slight, but it is a good start. I've also picked up a meta-tell from one of the other confirmation posts too.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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The votes were meta-based initially - playing off our marathon game together. Then I came back to the thread and picked up those tells - they were genuine thoughts, despite you nullifying them slightly. If you want to get technical, you asked why I was suspicious of you without referencing the votes, so I wasn't obliged to mention if my votes were representative of my then current feelings.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I don't really remember much of marathon games - the only reason I remembered that one in particular was because it was hilarious.
http://www.mafiascum.net/dontpanic/view ... p?f=1&t=51-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Active lurkerish? We hadn't even began the game. What do you think of Fenchurch's entrance to the game, then? She did little to get off the fence too, asking for opinions without offering her own.Alduskkel wrote:Vote: ConfidAnon. You just sort of joked around without kicking up dust (for the record, Hoopla joked around and kicked up dust) which strikes me as active lurkerish.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hello everyone, I'm back (and had a great time incase you were wondering).
Andrew is probably town - his attack on me impassioned and persistent, and although it has come to the wrong conclusion, I think scum would be wary to tunnel so early in the game based on a perceived action. Fenchurch has faulted andrew for holding onto a poor case, but what makes it different now, is that he has received a decent amount of pressure from Fenchurch (and others less directly), yet still hangs on tight. This means either of two things; he is town and genuinely believes he has caught something, or he is scum and believes he can get away with his vote.Fenchurch wrote:I would like an opinion on this/andrew from everyone else please.
If he is scum, he is latching onto this tell, spinning a way of making it scummy and sticking with it. He would know his reasons are bogus, so he'd need to quantitively assess how strong such a tell would be - but the strength of a tell is weighed in two ways; how accurate it is, and how believable it is. As scum, the accuracy is wrong, but the redeeming quality of it being believable diminishes with every post that it is attacked and criticised, making it a less viable place for scum to leave a vote - particularly if such an attack incurs the risk of return votes.
It makes more sense as a town action, because genuinely believing the tell is accurate compensates for the (possible) negative limelight he receives for it, whereas a scum perspective doesn't have that chance of it being accurate to overcome the attention. I think his attack and follow-up arguments are difficult to fake.
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ConfidAnon has chimed in with mostly wishy-washy responses, which has been noted by a couple of players - I'm kind of surprised he only has one vote, as he looks like an obvious target for scum (if he is town). If anything the fact this hasn't been targetted much is a slight scumtell for ConfidAnon. Active lurking/wishy-washiness is a pretty universal scumtell within site meta, that it makes more sense for the pressure/votes CA has received/not received to come from 5 townies and 1 CA-scumbuddy than 4 townies and 2 scum not affiliated with CA. My read on him certainly isn't improved by his vote on andrew, which is weak and devoid of any real logic, and the one brief instance where he did try to explain it, he made reference to Stefunny's (non-existant) questiong of andrew. I'm sure he meant Fenchurch, but it shows a lack of attention for the game.
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This post from Stefunny pangs of honest inquisition;
She is logically deducing a timeline and sequence of events that string together nicely - this post would have required at least one reread to do accurately which showcases an investment of time on her behalf. I think it's honesty stems from the fact I can clearly see the building blocks in this post that lead to her concluding thought - I think her interpretations are very reasonable. The post is grounded in logic, and although it is a fakable playstyle for scum to use (I do it myself), it's hard to do it well, and frankly, I think scum are less likely to invest the effort in producing a post that syncs logically, because they have less incentive to do so.Stefunny wrote:I will say that I agree that Fenchurch jumped all over andrew for doing something that was fairly similar to what Hoopla did, but seems pretty determined that Hoopla doing it in a "pro-town" way. Especially since Fen is bringing up past reasonings for Hoopla's vote but still didn't respond to the fact that the reasoning Hoopla gave for her vote was NOT what Fen brought up but reasoning that didn't make sense with the chronology of the game. I understand that might be how Hoopla likes to catch scum off guard but why the lie about her reasoning then?
I was initially suspicious of Stefunny, but that has evaporated. Her reason why she didn't confirm straight away is believable. I think she's likelier to be town.
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I have neutral reads on Fenchurch and Alduskkel - on the last page Alduskkel has started to expand his game and ask better questions. His posting still contains an air of cautiousness about it, which makes me hesitant to declare a town read on him. I don't remember Fenchurch getting into such lengthy one-on-one debates with someone, she's generally a little aloof, posting commentary and asking questions moreso than attacking. Her defense of me is more than I expected, and I don't know what to attribute that to. Fenchurch is generally difficult to read, I think.
As for Da Mafia Godfather, he is just being Da Mafia Godfather.
I'm still in the process of sifting through information, so expect more thoughts from me again tonight.
VOTE: ConfidAnon-
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Hoopla
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Are you serious? How often do mafia games follow the expected pattern? Unusual things happen, just do your best to adapt and figure it out. You're a mafia player - it's what you need to do.Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote: I am hunting for scum and analysing people's posts but because of Hoopla's actions I can't get a general feel for the game (for example because the game didn't begin in an orderly fashion with everybody making a couple of posts on page 1 I keep on forgetting that Stefunny and CA are in this game which throws my whole analysis and thinking out of whack.)-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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If you haven't got a completed game (or aren't prepared to say if you have one), why are you commenting on patterns in the game, and unusual starts? I don't know why you feel violated.Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:
I haven't got a completed game.Have you been scum before? If so, can you link to the game?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote: I'm not psychic and I doubt Hoopla is either. Hoopla's actions were anti-town (Iknow that for a fact. I think Hoopla could have guessed that it would hurt town somehow even if she didn't know the specifics.
Everyone had confirmed, it's not like it was two people that were here before anyone else. You're grasping at straws.
And Fenchurch - no, that isn't it, but keep posting other reasons please!-
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Hoopla
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It's a meta-gut read, and I find it difficult to explain eloquently as it's hard to pinpoint why I'm getting these pangs. It was triggered in post 129 in her attack on Da Mafia Godfather - and it made me go back and read through her posts, and realise something. Fenchurch is generally fairly detached, aloof even, and prefers asking questions and posting a running commetary of events, rather than get tangled in wordy debates. I've not seen her play in such a manner before, and from the looks of it, I think the change has come from her being more aggressive and going out of her way to find things as scummy.Stefunny wrote:
Out of curiosity can you explain why you think Fenchurch is scum? I haven't seen anything that has really made me lean that way with Fen.Hoopla wrote:Argh, I think Fenchurch is scum.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Fenchurch
Ordinarilly this wouldn't be a tell at all, or at the very least looks like town trying to pressue someone - but it seems very forced, and almost devoid of the natural curiosity that I have come to associate with Fenchurch. She is always inquisitive and considers other options, but here less so - I think she is trying to force an agenda because she is voting safely on things which can be interpreted as scumtells, but she is not trying to figure out alignment when she attacks. This is the hardest thing to fake. This is why she is scum.
Conversely, this is why you're town, Stefunny.-
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Hoopla
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These are all valid points, especially the last one - I hadn't read that particular game. I was perhaps hasty, and half curious to see you defend yourself, and I haven't fully shaken that nagging feeling, but I think I have better options to vote for, because your defense is solid. Let me relook at the game state.Fenchurch wrote: I can't say if this is true or not - and it's slightly bizarre to hear - I'm not really aware of my play being like this. However:
* this is the first game we've played together where I've really been present from the start, where I think maybe information generation (through accusations) is more necessary than observation.
* in a small game it is often more necessary to 'get your hands dirty' than in a large game, like we were last in together.
* this isn't the first game where I've been especially aggressive; see Open 229: Vengeful.
UNVOTE:
~~
As for Andrew's plan, I had been thinking about it during Day 1 also - I think it might be the right play, but for a different reason. If we mislynch today, it puts us in LYLO tomorrow - in which case, a counterclaim situation could be really ugly as we don't necessarily get that confirmed innocent then. I think the role will almost certainly have no use; it needs to match the other role, it needs to outlive the other PR to at least N2, and even if does get a shot on N2, it could still be killed that night, be blocked, or face counterclaim situations the next day. The role is essentially a Named Townie, in which case, having it claim today is probably the best move as it minimises scum's opportunity to have another fakeclaim option in a possible D2 lylo.
As Fenchurch says, we also have the chance of a doctor existing and scum not getting an NK, which would be a handy bonus and somewhat thwarts the risks involved with a D1 claim if there are any, but I think there isn't really if it's a safe assumption we won't get use from the role.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Lets make up our mind soon (ie; the next 12 hours or so), so we have a full 3-4 days of analysis to work with a confirmed alignment.Fenchurch wrote:I still think that this plan overestimates the tendency and success of mafia counterclaiming, which in my experience is often easy to spot. But my experience isn't that wide, and I'm happy to go along with it if everyone else is. Stef, are you in favour then?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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It means Empking is being Empking.Fenchurch wrote: @Hoopla: I was going to ask this anyway, what did you mean by this quote earlier in the game?
And you haven't commented on him much besides; what is your read on DMG in general?Hoopla wrote:As for Da Mafia Godfather, he is just being Da Mafia Godfather.
My read on him has been hovering around neutral, mostly because I don't know how to read that well that. He hasn't been attacked as much as I'd expect which makes me think it's possible he is scum - and from a process of elimination point of view, he has a higher than likely chance of being scum, as I have a town read on Andrew, and to a lesser degree you, whilst Stefunny is confirmed town. I would probably only choose to lynch CA or Empking today.-
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Hoopla
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Well, we don't have a player in CA's slot, so I don't think BlakAdder will drop a deadline without someone there. This game is really stalling without someone.Stefunny wrote:We are almost at deadline, and at this point I believe CA would be the one who gets lynched because him and DMG both have 2 votes but I believe CAs votes came first, right?-
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Hoopla
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Oh, didn't know you were determining my alignment based on whether I thought you were town or not. I'll make sure to do that next game.Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:
It would make my original point null but Hoopla would still be the scummiest player (lots of posts, not a single one that gives me a town read.)Does the fact that she used a similar opening in a game where she was town have any bearing on your opinion?
Hoopla: Thoughts on Ald?
I agree he has a tendency to be cautious, but that isn't anything seemingly unusual based on his playstyle, despite it generally looking fishy. I'd lynch him third after you and CA.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Fenchurch, don't be daft. You know perfectly wellFenchurch wrote:
That is, on DMG's radar, not Hoopla's.Fenchurch wrote:A town tell is totally different to a town read surely? That's not just semantics. Town tell = like a scum tell, something that pings as townie on your radar.whyI developed those town reads. I expect Empking to gloss over such details, but not you.-
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Hoopla
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Unless the player is saying "X is town" without ANYTHING qualifying that opinion, then yes. But when I have developed town (and scum) reads in this game, I have always justified them and tried to explain why I thought they were town, which in and of itself necessitates "town tells". Stop buying into Empking's junk posting. The "HOOPLA'S CONFUSING ME WAAAAAH" thing was bad enough, don't encourage him with this.Fenchurch wrote:I don't consider a player sharing their town reads to be an indication that they are town. Do you?-
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Hoopla
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What do you mean by "these"? Post 166 doesn't have multiple cases, so I assume you're refering back to this;Fenchurch wrote:I thought the earlier stuff was crap, but since about #166 I think he has made good points, and was feeling conflicted in my vote on him. I'll re-read, but right nowI think these are the strongest cases in the game.
In which case, Empking's read of me being scum is dependent on me "not posting town tells". Do you believe this too?Fenchurch wrote:I think DMG makes a good call in his reads on Ald and Hoopla. I'd be happy to lynch either of them today.-
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Hoopla
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Hang on. I think I misinterpreted Empking's original post - it looks like you're saying thatDa_Mafia_Godfather wrote:It would make my original point null but Hoopla would still be the scummiest player (lots of posts, not a single one that has a town tell in it.)I'vemade no town tells myself, rather than me not catching/posting town tells of others (because I did a lot of that). Sorry.
If that's true, and that's what you meant, then no I can't defend myself if you're saying I'm scum because I'm not town.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I don't think you can really say that without knowing the alignment of the other games he didn't flake from. Kind of strange to continue posting on site but completely ignore and not even acknowledge why you're leaving.Fenchurch wrote:I'll retract my vote, but not my sucky post.
UNVOTE:
I still believe, whereas flaking from the whole site is neutral (and cancels out 'lurking'), choosing to abandon one game is a scummy move.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Okay, I think I know who I want to lynch;
VOTE: Alduskkel
Other than Fenchurch's late push CA/Fritz when the slot was being replaced, there's been little initiative shown on either Empking or CA, which indicates they're either scum or if they're not, the players who are scum are comfortable enough to coast and not commit to an adventurous L-1 or hammer vote.
There's a strong disincentive to bus in this game, particularly on Day 1, as going down to one scum against 2 town PR's unnecessarily is a very bad situation to be in. Risk/reward strongly favours trying to generate a lynch elsewhere and/or defend your buddy's wagon, rather than bussing. I'm going to empirically rule-out a Fritz/Empking scumpair for this one passage of play;
Stefunny wrote:....<snip>
VOTE: Da_Mafia_Godfather
Please stop blaming your confusion on another player and try to come up with some better reasoning, because right now it looks like you are desperately trying to prove someone else is scum with little to no evidence.
These posts were made back to back, but most importantly, Empking's vote came after he was put to L-2, at the same time putting CA to L-1, which seems like a ridiculously poor choice risk-wise for an Empking/Fritz scumpair. Upon review, Empking's vote on CA there is very survival-based. He'd posted several times on the same page without committing to that vote, with it only coming after he'd collected his second vote. If Fritz is town, then it's a pretty good chance Empking is scum.Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:....<snip>
Sincxe I don't want to waste my vote, I'll.Vote: CA
I'm unsure if I should still be ruling Andrew out so heavily, as my view on him was barely challenged by anyone other than Fenchurch, and given the way it has gone down, with few people even paying attention to him now, it's quite possible the reason nobody is attacking him, is because he is scum and there is zero incentive to do so. One benefit from a town collectively (and correctly) deeming a player obv-town, is that it forces scum to either accept that or take the initiative to challenge it. In this instance, the tell I derived to psuedo-clear Andrew wasn't particularly strong and was admittedly wifom-based, but the group reaction to just going along with this is a little disturbing. The individual tell itself is still strong enough to probably put him behind the other four, though.
If I'm correct in my assessments of Fritz/Empking, that they aren't scum together (I think my logic is pretty solid there), and that Andrew is protown (which is a decent shot), it means that one or two of the Fenchurch/Alduskkel pair is scum, which makes sense to me, as they've both qualified as coasters at many points in the game. Fenchurch's aggressive push on CA, putting him to L-1 when that slot remained inactive very likely rules out a Fritz/Fenchurch scumpair, but conversely, it would seemingly make a lot of sense if the scumteam is Fenchurch/Empking. However, that is undercut by Fenchurch's attack on Empking earlier in the game;
Stefunny also voted Empking shortly after, and I don't think Fenchurch offered any sort of adverse reaction - it would be natural to want to steer the undecided voters not onto your scumbuddy, particularly after someone else has just got on, but she actively encourages a CA/Empking lynch, with her vote sitting on Empking. This isn't a scumbuddy play.Fenchurch wrote:....<snip>
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Da_Mafia_Godfather
Also, CA went to L-1 shortly after, to which I quizzed Fenchurch on her allegiance;
Despite Fenchurch advocating a CA or Empking lynch, she refuses to take the hammer (or set-up a post to hammer/force CA to claim), which would have been quite easy to get away with. In fact, she suggests Empking's vote is suspicious, highlighting his potentially scummy behaviour, which again, isn't a move that Fenchurch would/should make if she's partnered with Empking.Fenchurch wrote:
I don't know. He hasn't posted much, but what he has posted is weak/scummy. But then DMG, my other main suspect, got on his wagon, almost openly to avoid his own lynch.Hoopla wrote:Fenchurch/Stefunny - thoughts on CA? Do you think it would be too early to drop a hammer?
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Alduskkel is the best choice from my perspective - it's an intricate web of process of elimination, but I believe all my points are solid. If the following statements are true;
Fenchurch/Empking aren't scum together.
Fenchurch/Fritzler aren't scum together
Empking/Fritzler aren't scum together.
Then it makes it a very rational choice to believe Alduskkel is scum. Andrew is the wildcard as I said earlier, but he's individually less scummy than everyone here, even if he fits into more possible scumpairs. I think in smaller games, and in endgames of larger ones, it's necessary to try and weed out partners, as it's easy to be incorrect on individual behavioural tells. A much stronger play is to find someone scummy, then also figure out if they work with other players as scum - and in this game, I think there are several pairs I can safely rule out, minimising their chances of being scum overall.
This is obviously a biased perspective, as I have not included myself in these eliminations, but I think what I have shown on these players is pretty solid information that isn't dependent on my inclusion in this or not. Consider me if you need to, but don't try and push any of the angles I've ruled out, without taking down the logic I've put behind them. I think I've trapped Alduskkel by process of elimination, but I'll let you judge that.-
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Hoopla
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Just like your MD threads, I guess?Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:Hoopla's last post ewas a lot of words but taught me absolutely nothing. I don'ty see it as town at all.
Seriously though, read the post. My logic is laid out in a very easy-to-get sequence of assumptions. Your MD posts recently have proven you don't have the attention span of a gnat, so you don't get to play the lazy-card any more.-
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Hoopla
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I'm pretty sure this wasn't obvious at all - if it was, there is NO CHANCE you'd be voting for CA up until the start of this page. You're either lying to try and discredit my points by suggesting they were obvious, or you have zero concept of playing percentages if you thought CA was the best lynch given those three eliminations.Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:
All three of these were a given.Fenchurch/Empking aren't scum together.
Fenchurch/Fritzler aren't scum together
Empking/Fritzler aren't scum together.-
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Hoopla
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What the hell? When did I rule outDa_Mafia_Godfather wrote:Seriously Hoopla. Who's scum with Ald? Its not me, you, Stef, Fritz, Ald, Fenchurch. So if we rule out Andrew. That leaves...?anyonewith Alduskkel? The only pairs I ruled out were Empking/Fritz, Fenchurch/Fritz, Fenchurch/Empking. Any of you three could be scum with Alduskkel (or Andrew) from my perspective - I just don't think you are scum with each other. This is theentirereason why I am voting for Alduskkel - because he fits into more possible scumteams than any other player (except Andrew, but Andrew is individually less scummy).
Wait, do you really think I cleared you, Fen and Fritz completely?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:
Its impossible for him not to be.Hoopla wrote:Just to get this on the record, you think Alduskkel is town then?
So, what changed your mind since this post? I haven't seen you declare anything about Alduskkel being town. If it were that obvious, it seems like the sort of thing you'd speak up about earlier.Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote: Confirmed: Stef
Almost Certain: Andrew, Fenchurch
Probably (though I'd still lynch him at deadline): Ald-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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1. Possibly now, but until Alduskkel wasn't put on L-1, he had greater odds of being scum. It seems a little backwards to hop off a wagon once it gets to L-1 based purely on them now being assumed to be involved in less partnerships. I think the logic fizzles out once this is being used as a known tell - players weren't considering the consequence of their L-2 and L-1 votes so much earlier in the game, so they're generally more telling and more reliable to use. Here, less so.Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote: 1. So odds wise, CA is just as good a bet as Alduskel?
2. Since we agree that Andrew is town can you accept that from my POV that Alduskel must be town.
3. If you agree with two isn't it logical that as town I'd try to defend him?
4. Isn't it therefore a case of scum throwing muck at a player in order to get a townie lynched rather than good hearted scum hunting?
5. Alduskel flips town. Who are the scum? (I want both of them).
2. I can accept that - but if Alduskkel flips scum, you're in a lot of trouble.
3. It is logical for you to do so as town, and if Alduskkel is town, then I'd be inclined to believe you are town because of it. It is also logical for you to defend him as scum if he is scum. So, I think Alduskkel's alignment is important in determining yours.
4. I don't understand this question.
5. Andrew and one of Fenchurch/Fritz, with Fritz being a whole lot likelier. Fenchurch's early argument with Andrew really would be hard to swallow as scum-on-scum.-
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Hoopla
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