Mini 1105: A Mafia Invasion! (Game Over)

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Hey guys. Excited to be in my first game on MS.

Vote: Tasky

. He's the scummiest so far.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Well, I didn't explain my initial vote because I figured a vote without reason would be useful early on, but now that we seem to be discussing, I'll explain why I voted Tasky.

Simply put, he seems nervous. While other people did vote with as little reason as him (or less, in some cases), his votes are accompanied by short, nervous-sounding comments.

OH MY GOD, YOU SUCK!
VP Baltar

happy new year

Bandwagon!!
UNVOTE: VOTE: Mute

I know it won't sound like much, but even just the 2 exclamation points after "Bandwagon" seems nervous to me. It looks like he's trying too hard to blend in and it's just coming off as nervousness.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

@Vigilante - Is a vote without reason ever useful? I don't like that idea. To me, it looked like you voted Tasky with hardly any reason, and then once you saw other posters give their logic, Did the actions of the other players sway your reasoning at all? You made a vote that you could have easily withdrawed, but kept it once it looked like some other players had your back.

I see nothing wrong with voting without an accompanying reason. Even without a given reason, a vote can be used to pressure someone. In fact, that's the entire basis of the random stage: vote without real reasons to pressure and gauge reactions. When I voted Tasky, I had a reason that I have since explained. I just didn't give it at the time. Only you and VP Baltar posted about Tasky between my initial vote and my eventual reasoning for the vote and neither of you gave reasons that even remotely resembled mine. There was no reasoning of other players for me to have based my eventual reasoning on.

Besides, do you think that voting without a given reason is worse than not voting at all? Your vote is currently doing nothing. Mine is on someone I think is scummy.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Well, at least you have your vote out. Now let's look back at this reasoning of yours:

@Vigilante - Is a vote without reason ever useful? I don't like that idea. To me, it looked like you voted Tasky with hardly any reason, and then once you saw other posters give their logic, Did the actions of the other players sway your reasoning at all? You made a vote that you could have easily withdrawed, but kept it once it looked like some other players had your back.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm summarizing your reasoning as saying that I'm scummy because my vote without reason made it easy for me to sit back and see how my vote went over. Basically, it sounds to me like your reasoning is explaining why it was scummy that I voted without a reason, not why I'm scummy independent of that. Based on your casting of a vote after I explained why a reasonless vote is better than no vote, you seem to agree that a vote without reason isn't actually that bad. If you think I'm scummy for my vote, explain what exactly about my vote makes it scummy.

I also find it strange that you seemed to be implying (or outright stating, perhaps) in your last couple of posts that you didn't have strong reads, yet you feel the need to defend Tasky in your most recent post. Why did you defend him? Did you suddenly decide you actually have a strong read on him or have you had that for a while? If so, what other reads do you have?

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Well, I never said I was voting on much. To be fair though, the exclamation points weren't the only thing i was voting based on. They were simply an example of a pattern I was pointing out. You're right in saying it can't be easily challenged, but that doesn't change whether or not my reasoning is valid.

What I'm more interested in now is your out-of-nowhere defense of Tasky. If you really have only a weak read on him, as you now claim, why did you go out of your way to defend him? In fact, your defense of Tasky took up most of the post in which you put out your vote on me. That looks to me like you were using the fact that I was wrong as the bulk of your argument, which is very odd in conjunction with your supposed lack of a strong read. To be a bit more explicit about it, perhaps you know Tasky is town because you're scum and thought that would be the easiest way to attack me?

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

VV, I'm not defending Tasky. What you call a defense wouldn't do a very good job swaying anybody's opinion on him. I was going to vote either one of you, and I gave my logic as to why I thought Tasky was less suspicious. I don't understand the logic that you're pushing.

Really? That's not what your post says.

Vote: Vigilante Ventriloquist

For reasons stated, your vote for Tasky rubbed me the wrong way. I don't think Tasky is too scummy, I think he's reacting like someone who was told he wasn't funny. I don't think scum would be making such a big deal of my question and called attention to himself.

This doesn't sound like you explaining why you find him "less suspicious." This is you explaining why you don't find him suspicious at all. Explaining why you don't think a player is suspicious = defending that player. The fact that you did so unprompted seemingly as justification for your vote on me along with your response to being called out on it is enough for me to

unvote, vote: RossWilliam

More opinions on RossWilliam would be nice.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Yes, it was based on a pattern of general nervousness. I've since decided that RossWilliam is scummier and believe that RosWilliam being scum would likely make Tasky town.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Looks like this game exploded since I last posted. It looks like we now have 3 wagons going on.

I still like the RossWilliam wagon. I gave reasons for this before and they still apply. Unfortunately, that wagon seems to have mostly died out.

I'm not really a fan of the Mute wagon here. I've been getting the feeling that his suspicions are genuine, even if it's just a gut feeling. I also find it interesting that the Mute wagon built up quickly twice. It kind of looks like a default wagon that people are jumping to when they have nowhere better to go and that bothers me a bit. If Mute is actually town, it wouldn't surprise me if at least 2 scum are voting him.

Since it seems like the RossWilliam wagon isn't going anywhere right now, I'm willing to

unvote, vote: RobCapone

. The fact that he chose to ignore this game even though he posts so frequently is a bit suspicious (though largely alleviated by his explanation) and his post #108 looks kind of bad. I would definitely prefer a RossWilliam lynch though and if other people are willing to switch back to RossWilliam, I will certainly be among those switching.

@VV

Why would RossWilliam being scum make Tasky town? They just got into a little argument. That has no influence on whether or not they are scum or town

It's mostly because of his post #52. He felt the need to defend Tasky as part of his reason for voting me despite claiming only a weak read. This leads me to believe that RossWilliam is scum using the fact that I voted someone he knows is town as justification for voting me. It would be odd for him to include that as part of his reasoning for his vote if they were both scum.

I'm not sure how I feel about the L-2 and L-1 votes from Dizzle and Mute. I'm not sure Dizzle actually knew he was putting RossWilliam at L-2 (I didn't realize until someone pointed it out) and, to be fair, Mute seemed to crosspost with Guderian pointing this out. Not sure what to make of Dizzle's unvote in post #102 though.



I might need to reread RossWilliam to take a closer look. Things are starting to not add up so well and it might be time for me to reevaluate some of my stances so they do. I also want to take a closer look at pappums rat and Jerbs. Something about them is bothering me right now and I'm not sure what.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Mod, I'm going to be V/LA until Friday, most likely.

Sorry for bringing this up so late. It was a bit unexpected. I might be back before then, but don't expect it.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

I'm back and working on a post now. (just announcing this since Friday is almost over)

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

First thing's first: I'm not really seeing Rob as much of a scum candidate at this point. I don't see a huge amount wrong with his posts since he's started contributing and his reason for not posting early on is believable enough.

Unvote

at this point i guess i will unvote to give rain a chance to get into the game, since he or she cant answer for mute's actions.

I get a bad feeling from this post. If pappums thought Mute was scummy based on his play, whether or not he's being replaced shouldn't change that. Seems to me like an excuse to get his vote off of Mute so he doesn't get stuck on a dying wagon.

FoS pappums rat

UNVOTE: Rain
VOTE: Dizzle


I saw Dizzle on the forum. I've been lurking myself because I just moved back into my dorm and alots going on and its a lot easier just to read the thread than to make a post, but I'm here and I saw Dizzle not posting

Based on this post, I don't think RossWilliam and Dizzle are scum together. While I still have reservations about Ross from earlier in the game, I'm willing to put those aside for the moment in light of Dizzle's disappearance (and I'm not sure how much to trust my reads). I might vote him later in this post, but I seem to remember large bolded text saying Dizzle was at L-2 in my initial skim of new posts and don't want to hammer by accident.

Jerbs's posts continue to irk me for some unknown reason. I'm making a mental (and written now, I guess) note to try to figure out why.

Upon reaching the end of current posts, I see that Dizzle is, indeed at L-2. I would rather not put him in range of an accidental hammer without him at least showing up to defend himself, so no vote yet.

FoS Dizzle

, for now.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Hrm, we are starting to think Pappums and/or Jerbs are likely scum. Will elaborate tomorrow.

Stop copying me!



Okay, I looked back at pappums rat's posts and he's just been following the wagons all game. He initially random voted Tasky in post #15, switched to Mute (the forming random wagon) in post #17, hopped over to the RossWilliam wagon when that was forming in post #81, switched to the Mute wagon when the RossWilliam wagon disappeared in post #111, and then unvoted in post #181 now that the Mute wagon seemed to be going nowhere. All this is in 8 posts.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

random vote for tasky doesnt count (it was rvs), random vote for mute dosent count (rvs joke with tasky), voted rosswilliam cuz he was scummy, voted mute for putting rosswilliam at l-1 without warning (which now i suppose is ok to do but wasnt earlier (wtfffffff)), unvoted mute to give replacement a chance (which is generally what i have seen done since i came to mafiascum.net).

Fair enough, as per the random vote post. It still sits really badly with me that you'd done all of that in 8 posts, seemingly in a way just following the wagons as they formed and dissolved.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

VV, please vote.

I didn't want to detract from pressure on Dizzle before he showed up, but it looks like he's being replaced anyway.

Vote: pappums rat

for reasons mentioned earlier

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

It's looking at this point that Dizzle's going to be replaced. I'm excited to hear from the replacement because more and more the bandwagon on Dizzle is making me nervous...I don't have a good argument other than gut but I'm just getting a bad feeling about the lynch, because the only reason my vote is on him is because of the lurking, but plenty of town have lurked before. From a selfish point of view, if he flips town for some fluke I'm going to get a LOT of flak at the start of the next day, and I don't want that. I'm not going to unvote yet but if it get's to L-1 and we still haven't heard from Dizzle or the replacement I think I'm going to unvote.

I'm liking Tasky more as scum because he's got himself set up with this reputation like he's not going to contribute and thats totally okay. Now he can glide under the radar just making his comments here and there. We'll see.

I don't remember why I unvoted you, but it had better have been for a good reason.

VV, what are you thoughts of the four people with mini-actual bandwagons on them? Who of them would you like to see lynched most?

Dizzle: I'm starting to think I was a bit too lazy in allowing myself to suspect Dizzle. His post about Mute was certainly awkward, but his lack of posting (especially if he's now disappeared from the site) really doesn't mean much. I wouldn't be particularly enthusiastic about a Dizzle lynch.
Jerbs: My first thought is that I wouldn't be against this lynch, but I also never looked back to figure out what I didn't like about him. I meant to, but other people looked back first. I would probably be willing to vote him just based on what I've seen though.
Rain: Rain is possibly my biggest wild card right now. It felt like a lot of Mute's earlier posting was genuine, but his later posting gave me some reservations. I don't see much of a problem with what Rain's done so far. Not willing to vote him right now. I would probably only vote him as a deadline lynch and largely because his flip would give us a lot to work with.
RossWilliam: I didn't like him early on, then switched votes and wasn't sure. I'm starting to see him as scum again. It's not unlikely for my vote to find its way back to him in the near future.

UNVOTE: Dizzle

I made up my mind. I don't want to see Dizzle lynched without a defense. There is too big of a chance of the lurking being a townie fluke.

When I first read this, I thought it was scummy. Now that I read it again, I have no idea. >.<

I think I lost my grasp of this game a bit when I went V/LA. If I'm not busy today, I'll try to reread this game, but I won't guarantee it, seeing as I've been a bit lazy with reading this game in general up to this point.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Sorry for not posting the past couple days. Looks like a lot happened in that time.

To comment on the two most important things:

Not sure a daykill on the leading wagon would be a particularly smart move by either team. This being said, I doubt scum would have any sort of ability that would allow them to kill during the day and, if they did, I doubt it would be more than one shot. Using one-shot scum daykill day 1 on leading wagon = terrible idea. I don't think the kill came from scum.

I'm not buying the cop claim either. It's too common and easy of a scum claim, but not super common in practice as a town role due to the overvaluing of cops on this site. Especially this close to deadline, no way we should let a cop claim save him.

Vote: Jerbs

. Not sure if that was the hammer or not, but I don't really mind if it is.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

To add to the cop point (not that it's too important, but I may as well say it anyway), the fact that we have masons makes a town cop considerably less likely. For balancing purposes, masons are generally said to be roughly equal to a cop and are generally used as an alternative to the cop for giving town power.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Whoops, forgot about this game. Posting now.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Okay, sorry about that. Something came up. Posting later. >.<

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Okay, posting time.

The night kill is mildly interesting in that VP had a bit of suspicion on him. It's less interesting when you consider that VP is a good player and a small amount of suspicion on him would likely not be enough to keep a scum team from wanting to kill him and especially if he was doing something right. His suspicions might be worth looking at, but I'm not sure it's worth it to use them for any more than padding suspicions. This being said, I don't actually remember who he suspected.

I'm really not seeing Zdenek's case on Llama in post #345. I like Rob's case (or PBPA, I guess) on pappums in the next post though.

Interestingly enough though, I really don't like what I see from Rob in iso towards the end of yesterday. Between his post #321 and post #322, it really looks like he doesn't want the Jerbs wagon to find its way to completion. I also don't like the potential pushing of a day 2 mislynch on VP in post #336, followed by the very nonchalant "oh well, so much for that!" post #334 just 35 minutes into the day. Strikes me a bit as him not being surprised enough, if that makes sense. For the moment, that's actually enough to put him ahead of pappums on my want-to-lynch list.

Post #349 actually made me laugh out loud just now. Really nice catch by Tasky.

Vote: RobCapone

Rain's post #358 looks like a jump onto a counter-wagon to try to take attention off of Rob, especially since he seems more concerned with using buzzwords and making his post loud than he does about explaining his vote. I was about to say Rob's immediate switch to Zdenek afterwards made this less likely, but Rain's subsequent switch to Elli just 5 votes later could very well be his way of trying to distance himself from Rob.

FoS Rain

Town

1.Robcapone

9. Rosswilliam

Please ask me any question you have. Reading now.

I have one....actually, on further reading, I have two more:
1. Why the vote on pappums?
2. What changed that made you vote Rob?

---

Since it's apparently now the cool thing to do (and as an excuse to give reads on a couple of controversial players), here are my current reads (players within a group are in no particular order (even though I created enough orderings to give a pretty good idea of where people are relative to each other anyway)):

Town

LlamaGod
Tasky
Vigilante Ventriloquist

Leaning Town

Ellibereth
RossWilliam

Very Slighly Town

Empking

Neutral

Zdenek

Very Slightly Scum

pappums rat (eh, Rob's suspicions of him probably bump him to the town side if Rob is scum, but I'd rather leave him on this side of the scale until Rob actually flips)

Leaning Scum

Rain

Scum

RobCapone

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

You claimed that, even after Jerbs's flip, you didn't see good reason to believe he was scum and that he had you fooled. However, you also said that you were sure VP was bussing Jerbs, which would require you to have believed Jerbs to be scum.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Requesting Replacement

I can't give this game anywhere near as much attention as I thought I could and at this point, I'm really not able to post as much as this game demands. Sorry about this.

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Well-played by town this game (especially llama) and sorry for having to replace out. I'm sad I had to because this game was interesting.

I can't say I'm completely shocked at the LL lynch after I left. To be honest, I didn't really leave him in a great position. I based a lot of my early play and even reads around trying to put myself in the mindset of being a new player and when I finally decided to drop the act of being new, I found that I didn't like a lot of my earlier play and ended up seeming kind of shifty trying to change it up.

This certainly wasn't the best game I've seen played by scum, but they did get a bit unlucky with the vig on day 1 switching the lynch to Jerbs. From there, they were pretty badly off from their interactions and with town playing well.

Thanks to Zach for modding and really sorry for replacing out.