StrangerCoug wrote:Six pages isn't much to look at to get reactions, but "sociopathic" being the Mafia name makes the most sense to me as "sociopathic goon" is not in the Wiki. This suggests a multiball to me.
I disagree - RedCoyote doesný have a meta for multiple scumteams, and in this sort of game, it would only serve to detract from the mechanic at hand. It's highly likely we're playing in a 3:11 or 4:10 set-up, as having split scumteams means 2:2:10 or 3:3:8, which are wildly unbalanced ratios
I don't exactly know what Jack's motivations were, but it's possible he was trying to buy town points by holding on to the bomb for a while, passing it off as a misguided, ego-fueled townie gambit. It's also possible he would gain powers by holding the bomb for a certain amount of time - he hinted at this possibility earlier in the game, and I don't think he'd have needed to lie about it as scum. "Sociopathic" kind of has those connotations - it's definitely a role modifier of some kind. I'm sticking with the guess that he gained powers if he held the bomb for a certain amount of time, and he deemed early D1 the safest time to do so.
You really only need to reread the start of Day 1 with Jack requesting the bomb several times - he almost gets a little desperate;
Jack wrote:I have a bomb activated PR. Depending on how long I hold it, I get different abilities. Longer is better.
My
perfectly legitimate
guesses about when the first deadline will be are relevant here. I wanted to get it ASAP on day 1 because it would be bad from a design standpoint to have it go off before the game is up to speed.
There's no way he'd want the bomb that badly if that statement wasn't true. I'm pretty confident about this. And if this theory is correct, it gives us some pretty decent town reads;
CES is probably town. If my previous assumptions are correct, then it would be assumed that CES-scum would be on the same page as Jack, yet he didn't give the bomb to Jack first up, when he was quite obviously gagging for it. It means CES either disagreed with Jack's plan or isn't aligned with Jack. Jack is bullish, but he isn't one to cause rifts within a scumteam and if CES disagreed with his plan, Jack would likely step down or Jack would convince CES. But if CES was convinced it was a good idea, then I doubt he would have given the bomb to someone else (especially someone who hadn't been around so much), when the whole point of the plan would be to get the bomb ASAP.
~~
I think hitogoroshi is probably town too. His early opposition of Jack's publically declared plan seems earnest and he has put a lot of effort into bomb theory and the game in general so far. If hito was scum, such effort would probably enable hito to be calling a lot of the shots within the scumteam, and I don't really see him endorsing this gambit by Jack, unless there were some really dope powers to be gained.
More recently;
hitogoroshi wrote:Hmm. Well firstly, scum obviously don't know the bomb times. :p
Here's my interpretation of the Jack thing. Jack was telling the truth that he thought he could game the mod. We rode his ass on it and he fakeclaimed a power-role. It was a good fakeclaim (he has no bomb information but it suggests that it's educating his guess - if he gets power for every three days he holds the bomb, it stands to reason that the bomb won't explode for at least three days) but he was really just going off of his speculation, and his speculation was wrong?
Sociopathic is probably a modifier to "goon" that meant that he can't talk with this scumfriends. Seeing as Jack apparently had no PR and was actually a worse-than-normal goon, the smart money is on the scumteam being 3 (or maybe 2 and 2?).
This post is very lucid and doesn't sound like it comes from a scumbag who would
know
what a Sociopathic Goon is. It's quite a creative answer, and though I don't believe this is what it is, I think it'd be difficult to think up such a creative answer when your mind is tainted by what the role actually is.
I really am not seeing a Hito/Jack scumpair, if only because their two approaches to the bomb have been so vastly different. I'm not expecting the scumteam to be perfectly cohesive, but Hito's bomb ideas have a lot of thought behind them, that them all being a front and him secretly wanting Jack to get and hold onto the bomb seems silly.
~~
StrangerCoug is likely to be town, though this tell is dependent on this not being a 4:10 set-up (I think 3:11 is still likelier, but 4:10 is workable). If it was 4:10, I could buy into SC's Jack-attack being bussing because it was pretty confident, to the point where it looks assured and that he knows Jack's role. Sometimes when bussing, it is difficult to disguise confirmed knowledge of a buddy's alignment. I think it is far likelier that SC just got lucky as town, because bussing from the outset so heavily seems kind of suboptimal if this is anything but a 4:10 set-up.
~ I'm pretty confident with these three reads.
