Mafia 1114: Jim's Mafia - Game OVER!!!!


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Post Post #13 (isolation #0) » Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:10 pm

Post by Oso »

VOTE: HumblePoirot

Hello to David Parker, HP and ICENinja; the folks I have played with before.

Glad to meet the rest of you.
ICENinja (From the Signup thread) wrote:/in as well. Last mini was a disaster, this should be better!/
It wasn't
that
bad...at least we didn't have any double-voting, NK Immune Jesters or anything like that.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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Post Post #19 (isolation #1) » Mon Jan 17, 2011 6:17 pm

Post by Oso »

@ICE
1-Same as you; PST.
2-50+. Less than 10 (I think. Might be 10 by now) on MS though.
3-As time allows and I feel a need to. I don't see more than 36-48 hours going by w/o a post. As busy as I can get, I still work at the comp 75%+ of the time so I don't expect I'll have much of a problem posting.

@Javert
Thank You, for pointing out the deadline. I had missed that part (teach me to skim the rules).

Seriously though:
Javert wrote:[snip]
..
With that in mind,
I do not think we should take kindly to lurking.
We cannot afford to dawdle.

Vote: magnus_orion.
One scum down.
I'm going to go out on a limb and call that a non-RVS vote based on a player lurking.

Are you seriously going after lurkers less than 3 hours after the game started? Although the two sentences quoted there above might be unrelated in your mind they certainly look as if you connected voting magnus to player lurking being bad.

From my Point of View, it looks as if it could be either one. Either Action #1: pointing out deadlines[stop, reset, new thought], followed by a completely unrelated Action #2: Vote a player. Or Action-1/Part-A:Point out deadlines. Action 1/Part-B:Vote a player based on Part-A.

Question: Which is it? Or have I managed to misinterpret your intent entirely?
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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Post Post #26 (isolation #2) » Mon Jan 17, 2011 6:56 pm

Post by Oso »

Javert wrote:This conversation is amusing enough that I feel no need to explain my vote at this time. Please feel free to act like this is highly suspect.
Yer right Pardner, it's a knee-slapper fer shure....a real giggler :D

VOTE: Javert
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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Post Post #27 (isolation #3) » Mon Jan 17, 2011 6:58 pm

Post by Oso »

Oh hell,

UNVOTE: HumblePoirot

VOTE: Javert
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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I never said nothin' back to him. You don't want mess with no freak that's searchin' around that hard for blood.
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Post Post #44 (isolation #4) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 4:51 am

Post by Oso »

Edgerobin wrote:..
Oso and Mute also are suspicious to me for their votes for the similar reason that they joined a growing wagon without showing any pause and reflection on Javert's possible motivations.
..
I can see the reasoning behind that line of thinking and, for the most part, I agree with it.

I did post asking Javert for a clarification of his vote on magnus and the brevity of his response, combined with his flippant response when asked again about his magnus vote, is what prompted my vote. And it will remain on Javert for the moment. Here is why:

Who doesn't get lynched Day 1?

How many times does someone who comes under scrutiny early Day 1 ever get looked at seriously again until the endgame (without some sort of PR tagging them)?

Given that people tend to get Town Points for ending the RVS, who actually has the greater motivation to deliberately end the RVS instead of letting it end organically: Town or Scum?

@DP
DavidParker Post-34 wrote:..
I'm disappointed by players reactions to Javert's antics. They are searching for reactions and you guys are giving them - bad ones.

He is moving us out of RVS even if it's by drawing negative attention to himself. Now get your votes off him.

I'll be looking at the various reactions to Javert to see which is most scummy.
Are you unwilling to even consider that Javert did what he did as a way to get cover for a couple of game days as scum rather than as a townie fishing for reactions?

As I said above, my vote remains. I have nothing solid to say Javert is doing what I think he's doing other than intuition and gut at the moment. But that is enough for me to keep my vote on him for now.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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I never said nothin' back to him. You don't want mess with no freak that's searchin' around that hard for blood.
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Post Post #60 (isolation #5) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 12:50 pm

Post by Oso »

ConSpiracy wrote:..
[snip]
..
So you are saying scum can easily get townpoints for ending the RVS. This doesn't make it a scumtell but a null tell, since both town and scum can do it. That means your vote is based on nothing. Not really good...
..
I wouldn't exactly say based on nothing. More like based on how well screwed town could get in relation to a scum player who pulled it off. But it is nebulous, I'll grant that, and it goes to motivation which is much more easy to prove once there is a larger body of posts from the player in question to draw on.

Just popped to skim before finishing up work for the day but I will:

UNVOTE: Javert

I'm still twitching over him but my vote on him isn't going anywhere and all it may be is a twitch. Not going to throw him into the town category in my thinking but I will take him off the "want to lynch today" list. Mainly because in his last two posts he had opportunity and a decent base on which to counter-vote or pressure me and didn't. He pretty much ignored what I said in favor of his main suspect. If he were scum I would have expected a jab or two to set up a pressure/vote somewhere down the line, at least by the way I think.

Back later (this afternoon/tonight) when I can read the all posts that have been made today in depth and hopefully find someone voteworthy based on something other than just gut and possibilities.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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I never said nothin' back to him. You don't want mess with no freak that's searchin' around that hard for blood.
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Post Post #76 (isolation #6) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:15 pm

Post by Oso »

Javert wrote:..
I am going to ask again that players read, and give their opinion of, ICEninja's Post 47. I currently find it to be the most interesting post of the game. I find it very difficult to read a Town intention into this post.
As requested. I can do that before my main post.

By itself, intentionally doing something scummy for a purpose is null (scum and town both do it, albeit for different reasons), as Conspiracy pointed out to me earlier.

What I find more interesting is that he used over-the-top language when voting you, which he stated was on purpose an served a purpose but then doesn't dial it back any at all when voting Mute. "Finding it disgusting..." in regards to Mute's mentioning a policy lynch is strong. The single game I played with him (ICENinja), he was much milder in language until the point he got overly frustrated. Hard to have a meta on a player after only a single game but there it is.

I'd go ahead and vote him now but I want to finish reading the day's posts first. Magnus made a couple of posts that seem interesting and I'd like to get through them first. Since my game with DP, I added a rule to the way I play mafia: Pressure cook DP as early and as often as possible and see if he cracks (<-that is only a semi-joke, by the way).
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
-
I never said nothin' back to him. You don't want mess with no freak that's searchin' around that hard for blood.
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Post Post #84 (isolation #7) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 6:40 pm

Post by Oso »

DavidParker wrote:@Oso: No fair :(

That game was a one-off terrible game of mine that I was never even caught up with or tried to keep up with! I wouldn't crack again. (And you don't seem to be talking to me at all, what's going on!)
Sorry about not talking directly to you, no slight intended but there are some interesting things going on at the moment but I can say that I have put you into the pile of "don't want to lynch today" along with Javert. So you probably won't be getting any grief from me today. I do like the way Magnus is thinking and processing though, I have never really thought in the terms of scum proactively trying to align the town, but (so far) I think he is off the mark as far as you are concerned.

Onward...

Just when I was about to give him the benefit of the doubt too.

VOTE: ICENinja

That's 4 I think. Javert, Edgerobin, HumblePoirot and now myself.
ICENinja - [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2737433#p2737433]Post 78[/url] wrote:[snip]
..
Here's a full case of why I'm suspicious of Mute.
-In ISOs 0 and 2, he places votes based on player's names. In ISO 3, he makes a statement suggesting his random votes accomplish a lot for town. Perhaps this is theory disagreement, but to me it looks like he's trying to make himself look more productive and pro-town than he is.
-In ISO 4 he makes a FoS against Javert.
In ISO 5 he says that Javert's actions, as scum, wouldn't make sense.
In ISO 6, he votes for Javert. In ISO 8, he says he feels justified in putting Javert at L-2.
This seems contradictory to me.

This is in addition to his statement declaring a desire for a policy lynch that would hurt town and help scum. So yes, I think Mute is playing scummy. Does that mean I'm ready to declare him scum and lynch him? Absolutely not, it is page 3.
Please note the bold. ICENinja has phrased that in a way that completely distorts what was actually said in Mute's ISO #5/Game Post #23. Mute didn't state that Javert's action's wouldn't make sense as scum. He quoted ICENinja's vote post of Javert and asked a question that is pretty much asking ICE what exactly he is on about, at least in my opinion.

Boils down to this: ICE votes Javert with the stated reason that the only a scum partner could know magnus was scum without magnus posting at all. Mute responds (to ICE's vote) by basically asking "If he(Javert) and magnus are both scum, why is he outing his partner this early?"

The FOS of Javert he(ICENinja) has pointed out in Mute's ISO 4 and the actual vote of Javert Mute made in ISO 6 are both completely unrelated to what was said in ISO 5. ISO 5 could be connected to Mute's call for a Policy Lynch but not to his FOS and, later on, vote of Javert.

There is no contradiction and further, ICENinja did twist what was said to suit his own ends. He used Mute's questioning of his(ICENinja's) vote on Javert to make Mute look as if he was voicing suspicions, taking them back and then going ahead with the suspicions anyway.

ICENinja's entire case against Mute falls apart on the bold parts above, in my opinion. He has just tried to sell us on something that just isn't so using a blatant distortion, again in my opinion.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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I never said nothin' back to him. You don't want mess with no freak that's searchin' around that hard for blood.
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Post Post #126 (isolation #8) » Wed Jan 19, 2011 6:59 pm

Post by Oso »

[Edit before submit]I see ICE went to L-1 and refuses to claim, shame my vote is already on him :twisted: it really irks me when someone who has a gun pointed at their head (figuratively speaking) thinks they still have a choice. Someone do me a favor and express a willingness to hammer him.[/Edit before submit]

@magnus
magnus_orion wrote:@Oso: do you believe ICE to be scum for reasons other than his attack against Mute?
Short answer: Yes. This is probably going to turn out more of a wall than I wanted so I'll address your question in the post I make after this one (it may be morning as it was a long day and I'ma thinking of hitting the sack).[Add-on: I'll even answer it game tomorrow if we go into night before I am able to get back, if you want.]

@ICENinja
Oso wrote:He has just tried to sell us on something that just isn't so using a blatant distortion, again in my opinion.
ICENinja wrote:Can you try to explain this again? I really don't understand where this is coming from.
I re-read my post and didn't express myself clearly enough I don't think. So I'll have another go.

The string of Mute ISOs that you mentioned at the end of this post,
ICENinja wrote:..
-In ISO 4 he makes a FoS against Javert. In ISO 5 he says that Javert's actions, as scum, wouldn't make sense. In ISO 6, he votes for Javert. In ISO 8, he says he feels justified in putting Javert at L-2. This seems contradictory to me.
You string together some points that are true on the face of them. He (Mute) did FOS Javert then he also proceeded to vote him later and he did state that he felt justified at putting him at what he(Mute) thought was L-2 at the time of voting Javert.

My problem is that in Mute's ISO #5 (I'll quote it) he isn't saying Javert isn't scum, he's questioning the reason for your vote and than asking Javert directly about his vote on magnus.
Mute wrote:
ICEninja wrote:Also, the only way Javert could overtly know that magnus is scum is if he is his scum buddy. I too, as indicated by a comment made earlier in this post (that is now obsolete but I don't feel like deleting for transparency reasons), believed he voted a player for reasons of not posting yet. Simply declaring a player scum without "if" is one of the most solid scum tells in the game, I'd say. I don't usually make serious votes like this so early, but...
Vote Javert.
Problem is, if he is scum, why would he be ousting his partner now?
Under rules section 3:
jimfinn wrote:3.4 Play to win. Don't do anything obviously detrimental to your faction on purpose.
That would be going against his wincon if he were scum...
Though, I agree this level of obfuscating (please tell me I've used that word correctly here, I've never used it before :? ) is counter to the town as well.

Javert, why are you voting for someone when they have yet to post, stating outright they are scum?
At no point does he state that he doesn't think Javert might not be scummy. He quotes your vote post, asks why would Javert(scum) out magnus(scum) at this point in the game. He's questioning your vote, not stating his opinion other than implicitly agreeing that if Javert is town, his behavior is anti-town when he concedes this point
"Though, I agree this level of obfuscating (please tell me I've used that word correctly here, I've never used it before :? ) is counter to the town as well."


The way you strung the ISOs together, it sounds like "Mute FOSed Javert, then Mute said it doesn't make sense for Javert to be scum,
then he went and voted him anyway
, that's a scummy contradiction". When what actually happened is Mute FOSed Javert, questioned your stated reasons for voting Javert and asked Javert directly what exactly he was doing, then voted Javert(as far as I can see at least) for his flippant response. One of the reasons I voted Javert as well. As far as I can tell, aside from the question he asks Javert at the end of that post, ISO 5 has nothing whatsoever to do with Mute's eventual vote of Javert.

That's where the distortion is at, you painted another player in the absolutely worst possible light with that string of ISOs by dropping an unrelated post in there and trying to get it to say what you wanted to.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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I never said nothin' back to him. You don't want mess with no freak that's searchin' around that hard for blood.
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Post Post #129 (isolation #9) » Wed Jan 19, 2011 10:14 pm

Post by Oso »

What the hell, who really needs sleep...

Ok, now I know ICE is scum, no doubt in my mind. I'ma have to go the quote route again.
ICENinja [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2739659#p2739659]Post 128[/url] wrote:..
He just specifically said "Problem is, if he is scum, why would he be ousting his partner now?", and then proceeded to vote Javert in his next post because he believed Javert was ousting his partner.
..
Wrong. Read Mute's Post-23 and Post-28. He's voting (from what I can figure out up to that point in the game) because Javert isn't answering his question. Javert blew it off pretty much.

I followed your link to Post-52 and you are absolutely right, he does cop to voting for the reason you stated. Yet you neglect to point out that in that same post Mute also cops to dismissing that reason it because it's a flawed premise.

The question I have is this: Why wasn't Post-52 included when you stated you had your "full case" laid out in Post - 78? The posts you mention are Mute's ISOs 0,2,3,4,5,6 and 8 (Game Posts 7,12,17,21,23,28 and 33). Post-52 isn't mentioned at all.

I'll answer what I think the answer to that is for the folks at home. Because it's a case put together with duct tape and chewing gum. I've played with ICENinja before (granted only one game) but in that game I was scum, he was town. One thing that impressed me about him was how difficult it would be to get him lynched, he was an NK candidate for sure. He didn't add things to a case later on unless they happened after he made his initial case. Not the case here. Had he been actually reading Mute to see if he was a legitimate scum candidate, I'd bet money in Vegas that he would not only have referenced Mute's admission in Post-52, Town ICENinja would have also taken into account unvote Post - 48 and, if not dropped it altogether, waited until he had a more solid body of posts to reference. Mute's unvote post (of Javert) is not the best Mea culpa I've seen, but if sincere (and I believe it is), it covers his(Mute's) jabs at Javert sufficiently in my opinion.

******

@Magus
You can add the above to my reasons why I think ICENinja is scum.

When I went back and re-read ICENinja to see why he was garnering votes, I was at the thin edge of giving him the benefit of the doubt. Why?
ConSpiracy said this earlier
..
I have played my only game here on the site with ICE. His first vote struck me as really, really odd, not as ICE would do.
His "gambit" thing also wasn't something I would think ICE to do.
I had already thought there was something off about ICE when I read that, wasn't really thinking it was scummy though. I had only seen one game from him and he was town. I was seriously entertaining the thought that despite Javert, Edgerobin and HP making some very good points, he might be acting scummy enough to not get NKed for a purpose, just overdoing it.

That all ended when he laid out his "full case" on Mute. With the post references he(ICENinja) gave, there is just no way around it in my eyes: He laid out a bunch of references, told people what he thought it was, but using those same references not only didn't support his case, it exposed him for what he is. Scum. He didn't get any actual supporting evidence for the claim of the contradiction until he went looking for it and even that evidence fails if you look at fairly, at least in my estimation.

So, to answer your original question, I borrow reasons from some other folks cases that I think are solid and spot on to add to what I've said so far.

Javert Post-54: Agree with the entire post so I won't quote it, I'll just link it.

Edgerobin Post-117:Specifically this part
Town should be analysing people's posts. They don't always, but we have to assume that they will. Now, on reading Javert's post there are only, in my view, four possible interpretations:
1) Javert is insane
2) Javert is scum outing a scumbuddy
3) Javert is scum pretending to out his partner
4) Javert is null trying to bait (I say null because obviously scum can try baiting as well)

1) isn't worth taking seriously. 2) would be against the rules. 3) would have no point (it doesn't clearly say "this guy is my partner", nor is it in any way going to get the target lynched, since it premises the target's scummines on Javert's own). 4), of course, is the most likely - no matter what Jav's alignment.

So, if he was thinking at all about Jav's alignment, he should have concluded that the best thing to do would be to hold off and see what happens. The fact that he didn't can only suggest that he wasn't interested in Jav's alignment.
HP Post-88:Another one I agree with in it's entirety. Towards the end he covers some ground I just covered but it's always nice to see another player validate what your seeing is actually there.

Actually, those 3 players, at least in regards to their opinion of ICENinja, are pretty much are dead-on for the most part any time they post about him.

Sorry about the wall, I'm for bed now.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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I never said nothin' back to him. You don't want mess with no freak that's searchin' around that hard for blood.
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Post Post #137 (isolation #10) » Thu Jan 20, 2011 4:05 am

Post by Oso »

DavidParker wrote:Also, Oso is now the second person in this game to say he is certain a player is scum. Care to link me to that game where he was town and you were scum?
Happy to do it

Mini 1073: Autumn Mafia
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Post Post #179 (isolation #11) » Fri Jan 21, 2011 11:47 am

Post by Oso »

Apologies for not making an appearance here last night.

@ConSpiracy
ConSpiracy wrote:@ everybody: What do you think of the Mute case and of the DP case?
Don't think much of the Mute Case in all honesty. You raise some decent points about him from the very early game but I've personally come to the conclusion that Mute was honest about his mafia experience when answering ICE game-start questions. I find new players hard to read when either alignment, to me at least, they can go from looking uber town to scummy as hell in the same post simply because of their inexperience and to be honest, from my own experience when I started playing mafia, I tend to have a soft spot for them (and yes, that attitude has bitten me in the ass from time to time). So, I have no definite read on Mute but the impression I have of him at the moment is generally positive. I do know he won't be getting my vote today for anything that is based solely on what he has done in the game to this point.

As for what ICE as said about him (you and he are the only two voting Mute at the moment I think), well, you know what I think about him. Anything ICE has put forward about Mute is not even being considered by me at this point. If it turns out I'm wrong about ICE, then I'll re-read what he said about Mute in a different light. But I wouldn't put too much hope in his arguments swaying me even if he does ultimately flip town. As I said above, I don't think Mute has done anything irredeemable to this point in the game.

That pretty much sums up what I think of the case on Mute at the moment.

******
The David Parker Case: I stated earlier that I liked the way magnus was thinking and I don't consider his thoughts about DP as invalid but they are not the sort of thing you make a serious case out of without additional evidence, even on Day 1. Much like the poke that I at made a Javert at the beginning of the game: Enough to start a suspicion perhaps but it won't stand alone as the meat of a case. As a valid supporting reason? Without a strong pattern of other scummy behavior to back it up it may fail even that test.

RobCapone's vote is the stronger of the two there on DP, in my opinion. He brings up some points that I agree with and all are good points.
RobCapone Post - 120 wrote:..
[snip]
..
1. post 86 DP wants to know how many votes Ice has, he does drop subtle hints that he thinks he is scummy, but nothing overly serious
2. post 99 - DP wants a vote count - although on the surface, nothing is wrong with wanting a vote count, the fact that he earlier has said he wanted to know how many votes Ice has, this seems like another attempt to check the wagon.
..
4. Mr. I am against PL is now agreeing with me that he would be up for a PL on lurkers (This was in DP's Post - 104)
..
Those 3 points there, add up to a person who might be trying to confirm how a strong a wagon is before they try derail it. I'm not saying that is/was what DP was trying to do but if I wasn't convinced that my vote right now is on the right person for today, I would certainly be exploring it today. A scum flip of ICE guarantees I'll be asking DP myself to explain those 3 points tomorrow. In addition, if Javert ever ends up on the dead list at any point as scum, I'll be poking David as well.

But, he's not the choice for serious pressure or a lynch today in my opinion. Too much in my mind that I would hold against David is too connected the ultimate alignment of other players.

@HumblePoirot. I'll get a post in later in regards to "getting some thoughts out before night" that you requested, of the players in general, in one of your last few posts.
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Post Post #182 (isolation #12) » Fri Jan 21, 2011 6:14 pm

Post by Oso »

Ok, as I promised I would. (HumblePoirot asked for a suspect list from the players and I'm not certain, but I think one other may have as well although I can't seem to find that one. But anyhow....)

Main suspect is, obviously, ICENinja, for all my previous stated reasons here, here and here (That last one includes parts of cases others made on ICE as well. I added the ones I agreed with.)

As of this post, a distant second would be DavidParker. Mainly because of what I stated here, when answering the general question ConSpiracy asked. Basically it boils down to what RobCapone pointed out in his case against DP. Some of the points Rob picked out indicate, to me at least, that DP might have been thinking of making a stab at derailing ICENinja's wagon (I interpreted those points a bit different than Rob did I think). I will say that in the unlikely event (unlikely in my opinion at least) ICE does ultimately flip town, most of my bad feelings about David are going to go away. I can't quantify the percentage but a large part of any suspicions I have of David are tied up in possible connections with other players and that makes them fairly useless with no flips.

The rest of the players, not going to say much really other than I hope to hear more (on most anything they care to comment on) from ConSpiracy, Jerbs, manutdforev10 and Prox. I would add Edgerobin to that except, even though he has a low post count, the thought he puts into his posts more than makes up for it.
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Post Post #219 (isolation #13) » Tue Jan 25, 2011 5:06 am

Post by Oso »

Yeah I'm going to throw in with that myself with the two scum group thing. Anything ICE said at the end of the day yesterday is highly suspect. There may or may not end up being two scum groups in this game but there is also absolutely no reason to believe it at the moment other than through ICE and he would be about at the last person I'd consider reliable considering his flip.

VOTE: DavidParker

Currently reviewing something that pinged me on a partial re-read after Poirot's flip but I would like to ask David this:
DavidParker [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2738725#p2738725]Post-104[/url] wrote:I'd just like to post my agreement with Rob that 3-4 days before deadline if the activity and content of some of the players in this game doesn't pick up I will fully support a lynch of one of these players. It makes the game more enjoyable and.. is just more helpful if everyone is actively posting their opinions (as wrong as some people mind find those opinions to be).

Yes, I know I don't support policy lynches, but 3-4 days before deadline, lynching someone for not posting any content is not what I consider a policy lynch, but a player being anti-town and lurking, which is definitely a scum tell in current meta.
Why pick that particular subject (lurker, low post/low content hunt near deadline) and that particular time in the game to post that thought? The game opened up (according to the timestamps at my setting) on the 17th. You made that post on the 19th. At that point, there was still 12 days until deadline (2 full weeks for Day-1 according to the Rules post).
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Post Post #227 (isolation #14) » Tue Jan 25, 2011 6:43 am

Post by Oso »

DavidParker wrote:@Oso: That post is just my opinion on the topic of lurking, and lynching people who lurk. There are situations where a lurker lynch on day 1 is optimal.
That's all I was pointing out, my person beliefs, it's really more MD, so I'm not sure why you are voting me over a MD topic rather than actual game-related content. The timing of it was just because it had been brought up by Rob, suddenly suggesting a lurker lynch with 3-4 days left to deadline wasn't going to be a popular option, so I decided to bring it up sooner,
that given the circumstances, it could be an optimal day 1 lynch.
...
That's just it, I don't think it is (the bold part that is). Much like what you point about about two players(RobCapone and manutdforev10) here:
DavidParker wrote:Why are our 2 recent posters answering useless questions, but ignoring relevent discussion (the current wagon)??
..
Obviously, you weren't ignoring relevant discussion or answering useless questions in your post but it is similar to Rob's and manut's in that it doesn't belong where it is at. Their posts are a minor example, yours is a major example. Best way I can describe it is counting the first 10 numbers and seeing this..."1,2,3,4,5,6,
43
,7,8,9,10".

The post, by itself, is valid. Just doesn't make any sense or belong where it's at. So, by my way of thinking, you're trying to log my vote off simply as "
...so I'm not sure why you are voting me over a MD topic rather than actual game-related content.
" is an outright deflection.

I'll tie in all my suspicions of you when I post later tonight after work, eating, ect., and show exactly why I think that is a deliberate deflection rather than what you stated it was.
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Post Post #247 (isolation #15) » Tue Jan 25, 2011 6:13 pm

Post by Oso »

Ok since dinner, all I have managed to do on my re-read is basically confuse myself. I'ma try and keep this from becoming a wall, don't know how much luck I'll have.

Claim: Entertainer
(for the purposes of this game that means roleblocker)

I function as a normal roleblocker but have a restriction and a bonus. I can't target the same player two nights in a row but if I block a member of a group,
I block any team abilities they have as well
(whether the person I actually target has any abilities or not). It probably goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: Town wins, I win.

I did block someone last night and yes, I do think it yielded useful information. But I'll get into that at the end of this post. Mainly because I want to get what I think about a DavidParker/ICENinja connection then I'll get into that.

So I'll just get into it.
Unless stated otherwise, these quote are excerpts from David Parker

Post-80: First time he directly mentions ICE as scummy. Before that, David never mentioned ICE except indirectly, as deserving of attention simply because he belonged to a group of three players (myself, Mute and ICENinja) who voted Javert.
..
@Javert: I think that post(#47), on a standalone basis, is probably the scummiest post so far and is definitely not well thought out and is very scummy.
As a whole given the way your wagon occurred and Ice's positioning on it I'd say he is likely scum and would be in my top few picks for a lynch today at this point of the game. However, his response to accusations has been somewhat formidable, although it's much easier to respond to accusations regarding a scummy post than it is to avoid making scumlike-slips in posts.

..
Btw, Unvote. I'm not happy but I'm not unhappy with your input.
Note he unvotes Rob at that point but doesn't re-place his vote on anyone. "...
I'd say he
[ICENinja]
is likely scum and would be in my top few picks for a lynch today at this point of the game.
...indicates to me that he should be placing his vote, onto ICENinja, if he's going to take it off RobCapone.

Post-96. Pretty sure this is in response to Magnus' question to David in Post-93:
David, what's your opinion on ICE?
. (Magnus' question is near the bottom of the Post-93.)
..
@magnus:
I think I've stated I find him quite scummy as he doesn't seem to defend himself very well and I feel the case on him is very solid.
He would be in the top few I would like to see lynched today. I'm still reserving to post some of my other scum suspects at this point while I gather my thoughts.
Another reason he should place his vote on ICENinja (at this point in the game he has no vote out), although he(DP) does state he wants to gather his thoughts on other suspects and post them. But I would like to point out that DP does(sort of) imply in that first quote, that he isn't placing a vote on ICE because his(ICE's) responses are "somewhat formidable" but in the second says that he "doesn't seem to defend himself very well.". Now I'm starting to get the distinct impression that David doesn't want to vote ICENinja no matter how scummy he looks. Just making cover noises.

That brings me to my post earlier today: Post-227. What David tried to log off as my voting him for MD reasons is actually the final nail in his coffin as far as I'm concerned. I don't want to put a quote wall up so here are the relevant posts. Post-179:This is where I give my thoughts on two players, David is the second one, last half of the post. Please note, that even before the ICE flip, I thought that David might have been at least testing the waters to see if he could somehow derail the ICE wagon with some sort of jarring post that would take to spotlight off of ICE. The second, Post-219, is where I ask him about it directly. He tries in the post right after that to deflect, at least in my opinion, the vote by classifying my vote as voting based on an MD point rather than actual evidence in the thread. Well, there you go David. All tied up in a neat little package. You were not making an opinion known, you were desperate to get pressure off your partner and you blinked.

****

That brings up the question though as to why David was getting desperate to save ICE. As town, David would have voted much earlier than he did. He voiced strong suspicions of ICE twice but didn't vote until he had no choice. As scum, David would have happily thrown a partner in that much trouble under a bus unless there is something about scum in this game that is not readily visible. It makes sense (not optimal play, I'll grant that, but defensible play) to at least try and find a way to save your partner if you are about to lose half your team on Day 1.

Which brings me to why I claimed. The way my role works make sense in a multi-group game(plus like I said above, I've confused the hell out of myself and maybe someone can point out something in this post that might help me clarify my thinking) and David's reluctance to vote ICE yesterday only makes sense, to me at least, if there is some overriding factor that would make a scum player deviate so badly from optimal play. David's play yesterday certainly wasn't town in relation to ICE nor is it what I would call "normal" scum play either.

Second reason why I claimed: As I said above, my role makes sense in a multi-group game and David has by his play, in my opinion, and pretty much confirmed in my mind that ICE did believe there are two scum groups, for whatever reason, and he wasn't just poisoning the well. So, if there are indeed two scum groups, my action last night may have had a better than average chance of preventing a second kill than a normal RB would as I can block my target's entire group as well if they are, in fact, in a group. I say
MAY HAVE
because I can think of several other reasons why there would not have been a second kill when I was expecting one. And yes, I even include the fact that I may be completely wrong in everything I have said above.

I'll definitely name my block target by the end of the day, no matter what happens.
Because if turns out there is only one killing group, my block pretty much clears the target. But we have some discussion out on the table now so I'll leave it up to you folks as to when you want another talking point. If you would rather wait until we clear up some of the current stuff under discussion that's fine with me. If you want it now, I'm good with that too.

But no matter what else happens today, you folks
WILL
have the name of the player before the game day ends, I promise.
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Post Post #249 (isolation #16) » Tue Jan 25, 2011 6:58 pm

Post by Oso »

As far as I can tell, no. Town (with perhaps the exception of Masons or even Neighbors) are independent of one another so are in no "group" other than generic town.

To be honest though, until you asked, I hadn't thought of it that way. When I saw I blocked the group as well the individual, I auto defaulted to the simplest meaning of that. Mafia, Masons, ect, ect....

And yes I was :). When you mis-posted as PJ, that occured to me as well. I was a JailKeeper in that one.
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Post Post #251 (isolation #17) » Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:22 pm

Post by Oso »

I will for my own education and edification. But that pretty much will be as far as I go.

I'll go review the rules but I pretty sure that if I posted
I asked the Mod this.....And he answered this....
I'd be violating either the Mod Quote Rule of The Fake Mod Quote Rule (depending on if you believe my role-claim or not as to which one would get me). And you be reading my obituary in thread shortly after.

I'll ask. Don't surprised if I don't post about the exchange though. Any questions I had on my role should have been thought of and asked by me before the game or at least before my claim. And like I stated, that one never occurred to me.
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Post Post #259 (isolation #18) » Wed Jan 26, 2011 4:27 am

Post by Oso »

I did PM Jimfinn. Right after I made my last post. I voiced my concerns over asking for information about my role after a role claim. I await his response on both the answer to the question and the concerns about it.

From my own thinking (Jim hasn't picked up the PM yet as of this posting although you only have my word on that), Town can't be a "Group" . I'm town, if my ability blocks all town PRs if I target a townie, then I also block myself if I do so. So in the case of targeting town, my block, blocks my block if you see what I mean. Unless the Mod is going to specifically prevent that from happening, it would be a bastard role in the case of targeting a townie of any sort

@Edger, I blocked you. You made the short list of people, in my mind, who I wouldn't mind being in the endgame with if I went all the way that far in the game. I'll get more into that reasoning behind choosing you (and why I think ICE was telling the truth about 2 scum teams. Or at least why I think he truly believed there was 2 teams).

I just popped in to give a quick skim before work and see if I had any response from Jim. So I'll answer all concerns pointed at me, hopefully later this morning.
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Post Post #266 (isolation #19) » Wed Jan 26, 2011 6:51 am

Post by Oso »

Edgerobin wrote:Since Oso made a full claim, I don't see why he would be reluctant to answer the questions that followed. Here are a couple of considerations:

1) Clarifying the extension of your power on town does not mean quoting the mod. So I fail to understand your problem with it.
2) Clarifying the extension of your power on town is of the utmost importance. By all means do ask the mod. It is a legitimate question. And if you have issues with posting the answer in thread due to the ruleset, just ask the mod if you can.
3) By claiming now you are basically betting that there is only one mafia. We are unable to categorically exclude that there are two, in which case you would be unable to block both and you would probably be dead tomorrow. Did you consider this? I find it a little risky.
4) Considering point 3, if you think that your information can help town building a case or understanding the mechanics, why are you not revealing it right away? Anyway, before doing it, you should be sure about the effects your power has on town.
@Edger
The reluctance stems from the fact that I believe that indicating, in thread, that you have sent a message to the Mod and he answered in a certain manner violates the spirit of the "No Quote" even if it doesn't violate the letter of those rules. It would have been better I think, had I just went ahead and responded "I will" to Javert's request and deal with any complications that may have happened, when they happened instead of letting my personal thoughts on the subject get into my post.

1)On thinking, I can agree with that. Everyone gets a role PM and you are allowed to reference pretty heavily in the game. I can stretch my personal mafia philosophy to put later role clarifications in the same category as the original Role PM.

2)Did that one.

3)I have to disagree on that one. Last night when I chose you as a block target, I was betting on two night kills. My role powers (even before ICE's suggesting it) indicated to me that there might be multiple groups. Whether that meant two scums groups or a combo of scum and town groups was an open question in my mind. ICE's posts did nudge me into the scum/scum thinking though.

As I stated in my last, you were one of the people who made my short list on people I wouldn't mind going all the way to the end game with and wouldn't it be nice if I could use this to almost categorically clear a player(s). I genuinely stink at using an RB role. Normal RBs means you have to target the actual killer of the group to prevent the kill. I've never done that so far with the role as I seem much more likely to block a useful town PR or VT instead. JKs, I hate playing them. When successful,their results are ambiguous most of the time that they are hard to interpet, at least for me.

But this role, because of it's broader effects, has possibilities. If I target someone and they are part of a killing group, I stop the kill. Don't have to hit on the exact killer. The flip side of that is that if I target someone (and I am not blocked by another RB type) and a kill shows up, then I can take it that person is town (additional scum groups and third party aside here) rather Than scum who just didn't do anything. So if there is only one killing group in this game, you are Iron-Clad town, from my current POV, in my book based on the results of last night. Town benefits by knowing this. I admit, I could have waited to claim with this info at a later date as your play so far in the game, to me at least, has been town. Enough so that my being NKed with this info undisclosed wouldn't have hurt you or town.

The part that prompted my claim was two fold. First: My case against David only makes sense (to a greater or lesser extent depending on if my RC is believed and you folks think my thinking process valid) in a two scum group game.

Second: My actions last night may have prevented a second kill (barring actions by other town PRs of course and if there is indeed a second mafia) and that is something town needs to know about and they need to know at some point before night. The risk to myself is irrelevant, in my opinion. The info I have is more important that my continued presence in the game after tonight, at least in my opinion because if I am right about David and also right about two scum groups, then I have given town a start on chipping away at the second group.

4)Yes, I covered what I think the the benefits are in #3 up there. I didn't want to side track the case on David immediately. Unfortunately, I couldn't see how I could get my thoughts out on David (and be taken seriously) without giving folks my claim as back-up to show why I was thinking like I was. It's all well and good to say I don't think ICE was lying, but without also showing how what he said tends to confirm something I was already thinking, it would be supremely easy to have that dismissed seeing as how ICE was scum. The holding off on naming my target until specifically asked for it, was to hopefully keep the game focused on David. I went ahead and stated it because if I don't, I'm afraid that will become the center of discussion instead. My claim is going to draw off enough discussion as it is, I really didn't want someone to get the target and tear off on a tangent based on what is, at the moment, equivocal evidence. You(Edgerobin) being the target is useful information. However, at this point in the game, it's fairly useless for determining alignment until other matters are answered. One on hand, my blocking you pretty much makes you town. On the other hand, you stand a decent chance of being part of a killing group. Depends on what position the 2 scum group switch ends up at and and how any other PRs in the game may have interacted last night, as to how my block ultimately will affect you.

To the last part, until Javert asked it, I never considered "town" a separate and distinct group. Allied? Yes. All having to cooperate to catch scum? Certainly. But since there is no pre-existing connection prior to the game (like with other groups) it fails, at least in my opinion, the "Mafia Game" definition of a group. Thinking how this role might affect a group that wasn't a group in my mind up until that point, never entered my thinking.

******
For any interested: Why I believe there are 2 Mafia Groups and why I think ICE confirmed that.

1)My Role Powers.

2)ICE was PISSED!!, he had certainly convinced himself there were two group and I don't think it was faked.
ICENinja wrote:Forget it, I'm not reading all this. I'm done with this game. You got me.

I'm literally about 90% sure that I would have been today's lynch regardless of my role, because I played with EXACTLY the same mindset as I always do. My post 47 would have been exactly the same, word for word. I would have reacted to the pressure the same, adjusted my tone and adapted to pressure the same, and I would have made the exact same case against Mute. I'm extremely pissed out about how smug Javert is going to be about "catching" me, but it was simply dumb luck. Dumb being the operative word.

There are 2 mafia families, I think, which is why I played with EXACTLY the same mindset as a normal townie. I'm really seriously thinking Mute is on the other one. I was 100% genuine in my scum hunting and my case against him. Look at how opportunistically he hops on my wagon after calling me town, considering almost nothing changed in between that. The fact that no one besides CS recognized how stupidly scummy Mute's play has crushed my morale to play.

I'm sorry, partner. Like I said in the QT, I just can't take it any more. This game has destroyed me. I'm going to need a break before queuing again.

Had I been legitimately caught in something scummy, like I was the other time I played scum and got lynched day 1, I could take it. That wasn't this bad. But this...no.
Something in his role or the way his group was set-up made him think there was another Mafia group. Hence why he is so pissed. He went in as "I'ma play as town and it going to be genuine because I REALLY AM hunting scum." Unfortunately for him, the theory was good but the execution failed. When he says he said what he did was "to help town win (Post-194)" was a partial lie. He wants town to win but because of revenge not because he's being nice. If someone(s) called him out and he got lynched over it, it was automatically scum logic because "he was playing as town". It's the revenge part of it that makes me certain that he believed there are two groups and I am willing to believe him when he says he is certain there is another scum group.

Take points 1 and 2, and that's why I am more than willing to believe there are 2 Mafia in this game even though we have no objective proof of it as yet.
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Post Post #274 (isolation #20) » Wed Jan 26, 2011 12:45 pm

Post by Oso »

I can reference the PM.

Town powers are not considered factional abilities.

To clarify my role. I can't block the same person twice in a row. I block an individual. If he has a power, I block it. If he is a member of a defined group (Mafia, Masons, ect., ect.) no matter what its alignment, my block travels up to the group level and blocks any team power they may share. It does not make the trip back down to individual members that I didn't block.

So if I blocked a goon who belonged to a Goon/Goon/Watcher group, my block of the goon would be useless, he is powerless on his own. It would travel up and block their nightkill though. IT WOULD NOT make the trip back down into the watcher, I'd have to block him directly to do that.

So to answer your question Javert:

No, if I block a Town<any role here, defined groups exempted>, it DOES NOT block any other PR. The town collectively has no team(shared) power.
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Post Post #276 (isolation #21) » Wed Jan 26, 2011 1:45 pm

Post by Oso »

Ok, back to the game.

All theses quote fragments are from DavidParker's Post-253
Interesting claim, that was the first thing which popped into my head, if you block a town player (even a VT), do all town PRs get blocked... I don't know how you didn't think of it?...
From rereading, it is apparent what I said in my claim was open to interpretation. I didn't think it was but I'll go ahead and highlight the part I think caused the problem.

....I block any team abilities they have as well (whether the person I actually target has any abilities or not).


I did not mean that say that I blocked all the powers of the entire team if I targeted a single member. A nightkill is a "team" power. Almost all other powers present in a mini-normal are individual powers unless specifically assigned by the mod to a team. Team in my mind equates directly to "shared". If anyone got the impression I said that I blocked an entire team, apologies for the wording. Never did I think my block was a blanket covering every member of an entire group. That is why Javert's question threw me so much. But I did know I wasn't going to answer him definitively at that time. He raised a point I absolutely hadn't considered based on how I assumed my role worked.

Nice dig at the end of that though David. Makes me look scummy and stupid all for the price of one sentence.
I was desperate to get pressure of my partner?? I'd love a single quote that shows this in the entire thread, because that's just a huge misrep. I was asking about the wagon as I was contemplating joining it and I felt he was near L-1, so I wanted others and myself aware of the state of the wagon. I had every intention of quite probably joining the wagon, you are basically saying me asking about the wagon but not joining it = intent to derail it??
There is no quote I can use. My accusation of you as ICE's partner is based on my interpretation of a pattern of behavior you showed in relation to him yesterday. There is no single quote from any of your posts that proves that. I'm asking the rest of the thread to accept my interpretation as valid.

and then this gem...
Also, I hate to bring up self-meta, but this was brought up by someone in another game against me, funnily enough it might help here; my entire history of playing scum I've almost always bussed the shit out of my partners especially when they've played poorly. Even when they've played perfectly I've still bussed for no good reason. Scum-David definitely would have bussed Scum-Ice in this game, I'm just saying.
Yes, I remember how you threw MichelSableheart under a bus in our last game together. As far as I can see, you do throw partners under a bus for "no good reason". Didn't work so well for you then did it? Three scum swinging in three days if I recall.

Point being, this I believe is a fairly extraordinary for your scum team. About to lose half the team on Day-1, so a change up in the way you play would be appropriate for this game. Especially since ICE implied that you guys also have Day talk here:
ICENinja wrote:..
I'm sorry, partner.
Like I said in the QT, I just can't take it any more.
This game has destroyed me. I'm going to need a break before queuing again.
..
It not a stretch to think that you curbed your normally bloodthirsty nature as scum in this instance to make a stab at saving ICE if his tone in the QT was anything close to his tone in that quote.
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Post Post #295 (isolation #22) » Fri Jan 28, 2011 5:13 am

Post by Oso »

I have my own personal and game related problems with being directed at this point in the game, but I'm not going to reject the idea out of hand.

I'll ask Javert to do this if he would, place yourself in the position of scum and think of all the ways you could use this to screw over town (I can see one way right off the bat, which means there are probably more). If you can bulletproof it so that the results can't be manipulated by scum, I'm all ears.

Moving on
Javert wrote:..
Right now, assuming two scum groups of two, I would suggest that today we try and lynch whoever we think is partnered with ICEninja. If ICEninja indeed only has one partner, lynching that partner will take the number of anti-town nightkills we have to deal with from two to one.
Once we have reached that point, if Oso is Town and manages to block one member of the other team (i.e. Mute, since he cannot roleblock Edgerobin two nights in a row), then we could get through the tonight without a single kill. On the other hand, if Mute is role-blocked but there is a "shooting" kill, that would be a strong indicator that Mute is actually Town.
..
I fully agree with the bold part. If there are indeed two scum groups, getting rid of one of them entirely today if we can, is worth doing irrespective of what my results from last may indicate of a possible member of a second group.

That is why I'll ask people to take a good look at yesterday and see how ICE interacted with the game and vice-versa and see if we can't do that. As I stated earlier, I think that person is David and am going to go back over my case on him to make sure I caught everything I think indicates that. I know of one piece I have to throw out because it turns out it didn't indicate what I think it indicated. I'll be re-presenting my case on him later today with some thoughts on other players.
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Post Post #313 (isolation #23) » Sat Jan 29, 2011 4:26 am

Post by Oso »

RobCapone wrote:I am not sure what to think of his claim tbh, do I think it would be stupid for scum to fake claim like that day 2? yes I do
but the fact that he isn't voting you is weird.


Right now I am not voting you because his roleblock on you could be he stopped a kill but it doesn't prove it 100% and when I look at both of you and DP, DP is by far the scummier of the 2 people up for a possible lynch.
The bold part, you answered your own statement there with the second part of that. But to give you my thoughts, there are at least two things that are going to have to happen for me to seriously push at Edger today. Confirming (not just speculation, no matter how strong that speculation is in my mind) a second group and determinging the chance that a second kill wasn't prevented by some other player(s) actions or inaction.

Since neither of those things are likely to happen today, all my blocking him last night proves (provided I wasn't blocked) is that he had nothing at all to do with Humble's death. All I can really tell with any level of certainty, based on my action last night, is what Edger
didn't
do. Not what he might/might not have tried to do.

Edger is getting some moderate pressure today from some players based on my action and, as far as I can see, that is about as far as we are going to be able to take it today because right now, we only have three definite pieces of the set-up: Humble's alignment, ICENinja's alignment and my claim (provided you think it is a true claim) and a decent chance (in my opinion) of having guessed correctly about a forth part. Not really strong enough to push a lynch on someone based on that alone. In my opinion, it would be pretty much an informational lynch that stood a chance of hitting scum and I have no way to quantify what that chance might be other than the obvious 1 in (Alive Players - 1). Too many unknowns at the moment.
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Post Post #316 (isolation #24) » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:57 pm

Post by Oso »

Ok, weekend is turning out to be busy for me.

But here is the thing I wanted to take out of my case against David because, on re-reading, I don't really think it is applicable.

I said here:
Oso wrote:Point being, this I believe is a fairly extraordinary for your scum team. About to lose half the team on Day-1, so a change up in the way you play would be appropriate for this game. Especially since ICE implied that you guys also have Day talk here:
ICENinja wrote:I'm sorry, partner. Like I said in the QT, I just can't take it any more. This game has destroyed me. I'm going to need a break before queuing again.
..
It not a stretch to think that you curbed your normally bloodthirsty nature as scum in this instance to make a stab at saving ICE if his tone in the QT was anything close to his tone in that quote.
The part I want to take out is the part that might show David is acting atypically from his normal scum play because ICE was discouraged. I think he still is changing his game up from normal "bus anything that moves when I'm scum" scum play because of the situation he finds himself in.

ICENinja is obviously discouraged
ICENinja [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2735058#p2735058]Post-14[/url] wrote:And yes, hello to you as well Oso. I wasn't referring to our game together, actually. I was referring to the one I am currently dead in, and shall not discuss. Our past game really wasn't as terrible, I just got frustrated.
and here
ICENinja [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2738340#p2738340]Post-92[/url] wrote:I've had a more cynical and frustrated look on mafia in general the past week or two, actually. I can't discuss it because it is ongoing, but a quick read through of day 1 of mini 1106 (its only a few pages) will tell you why. In response to CS's concerns, you'll also notice that I melted down quite unlike how I would have played in a newbie game. I would never have let that happen as an IC.
But I don't think ICE's comment that everyone assumed to mean they have day talk, is valid. Because when ICE said this:
ICENinja [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2743975#p2743975]Post-183[/url] wrote:I'm sorry, partner. Like I said in the QT, I just can't take it any more. This game has destroyed me. I'm going to need a break before queuing again.
I later found that there were two posts that indicated he was frustrated with mafia in general before the game started.

Point being, that QT reference might just as easily mean pre-game talk rather than on-going (day) talk. I think it is important for me to retract that part of my case against David as when I made it, I was assuming myself that meant they had day talk. I no longer think that is true. The rest of the post stands but that part doesn't.

I will be doing as I said and representing my case on David but not just now. Hate to make it seems that playing mafia is like low priority, but for today it is. Spent a very enjoyable day with friends and after a shower and dinner, I'm off to the bar to play some pool with them and to get drunk, or at least decently buzzed.
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Post Post #321 (isolation #25) » Sun Jan 30, 2011 6:10 pm

Post by Oso »

Welcome Amrun. Glad to have you.

@Here is the recap.

My vote post of DavidParker here and two follow up posts here and here (this is the post I claimed in, so it has a bit more that just David in there) and finally this post.

Basically, in those four posts give the meat of the main points as to why I think David is ICENinja's partner.
  • First three posts are poking at his behavior yesterday. In my opinion, he showed a marked reluctance to vote ICENinja and perhaps even considered testing the waters to see if he couldn't get some sort of pressure off ICE. David does deny that in later posts of his and his reasons aren't even really that bad. He states he didn't vote ICE until the end of the day because he was looking at other players as well and he flat denies doing anything to get pressure off of ICE. I'd counter his not voting ICE, for his stated reason, because he never does vote anyone. Nor does does he take as strong a stance, as he did with ICE, against anyone until ICE came out and admitted he was scum. Then he(David) votes.


  • The forth post lays out the reason why I think David has altered his normal scum game. He found him in a not very common situation for Day 1 in a mini: He was about to lose half his team. In addition, his normal play style as scum (bussing for any reason at all, that he used in his defense) hasn't done much for him. He even admitted here. He's changed up because of the situation he finds himself in and because of past experience.


  • Those are my reason that don't rely on anyone else. But you can go ahead and add in RobCapone's concern here, in the first part of this post as it ties in quite well of what I thought of David's suggestion here
    David Parker wrote:..
    I think lynching who Oso claims to have blocked last night gives us just as much and probably more info than lynching someone we think is partnered with Ice. (And no, I'm not partnered with Ice and trying to save myself). We can confirm there is 2 killing parties, we can confirm Oso's claim, we can make potential connections to both mafia parties. Not to mention, that why are we trying to eliminate one mafia party altogether? You seem to be assuming that their night kills are only capable of hitting town.. There is a good probabilty of them hitting scum. I mean even if we knew 100% who ice's partner was, keeping him alive, turns him into more or less a random-vig who we will later lynch. There's no reason we should be speculating too hard into Ice's scum-buddy when there is no huge gain to lynching his scum buddy over lynching scum of the opposing party. (Once again, i'm not ice's buddy trying to save myself, I honestly believe this, I'd probably be trying to prove my innocence if I was just ice's buddy at this point).
    ..
    Suggesting flipping Edger at this point for simple information? He spins it a bit later on in the post by referencing role-information is as good as analysis but even that fails at this point. Right now, all my information confirms (if you believe it) is what Edger didn't do and that is he didn't kill Humble. And actually advocating leaving town open to 2 NKs on purpose? I think he is doing exactly what he says he isn't and that's trying to keep from being lynched himself. I have my own concerns about Edger and many folks have voiced them in one form or another since I claimed so I don't want you guys to think I don't hear what you have been saying. I have. When we confirm a second group, and I think we will at some point, I'll be right in there grilling Edger. I think our time (this game day at least) is best spent making the best possible attempt we can to eliminate ICE's partner on the assumption there are 2/2-man scum groups, eliminating one NK.
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Post Post #343 (isolation #26) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:00 pm

Post by Oso »

RobCapone wrote:..
I need to re-read a bit to see if I want to stick with DP, but I may still vote DP so for all intensive purposes DP you are still L-1
I hate to point out the obvious, but he really isn't. Not at L-1 and no one willing to drop a hammer. He has about as much pressure on him right now as a disconnected water hose.
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Post Post #349 (isolation #27) » Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:56 pm

Post by Oso »

I'm thinking jimfinn hasn't been on to check yet.
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Post Post #352 (isolation #28) » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:10 pm

Post by Oso »

Find one of those PBBGs. They are pretty fun if you are bored.

But I look on mafia with this

NERQ

N
obody
E
ver
R
eally
Q
uits

Nice thing about mafiascum is that it is probably going to be around for as long as people want to play mafia. Which makes it nice if you take a break for a while. Probably still be here when you get back.
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Post Post #360 (isolation #29) » Fri Feb 04, 2011 5:11 pm

Post by Oso »

Going out tonight so no in depth analysis.

I blocked Javert last night.

Some thoughts on my mind right now (without speculating on possible Town/Scum PRs for the moment):
  • Second guessing (or re-evaluating if you prefer) my reasons for thinking there are two mafia.
  • Trying to reconcile what happened N1 and N2 using both a single Mafia Group and two Mafia Groups.
  • Considering what effects using 1 Mafia Group and then 2 Mafia groups might have on indicating the alignment of my block targets.
  • What I would consider optimal scum play for the last two nights, if I were scum in this game (both if I were certain there was only group and if I thought there might be a decent chance of a second group).
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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Post Post #377 (isolation #30) » Sat Feb 05, 2011 4:32 am

Post by Oso »

RobCapone wrote:Edge is scum cause I got a guilty on him last night
Full claim along with results from N1, please.

@Amrun. Not game related but I am male not female ;)
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Post Post #379 (isolation #31) » Sat Feb 05, 2011 4:38 am

Post by Oso »

@Amrun
Ah, you didn't really.

Oso: Spanish. Generic for "bear"
Osa: Spanish. Specific, "she-bear"
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Post Post #381 (isolation #32) » Sat Feb 05, 2011 5:15 am

Post by Oso »

Oso [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2774182#p2774182]Post-360[/url] wrote:..
[snip]
..
Some thoughts on my mind right now (without speculating on possible Town/Scum PRs for the moment):
  • Second guessing (or re-evaluating if you prefer) my reasons for thinking there are two mafia.
  • Trying to reconcile what happened N1 and N2 using both a single Mafia Group and two Mafia Groups.
  • Considering what effects using 1 Mafia Group and then 2 Mafia groups might have on indicating the alignment of my block targets.
  • What I would consider optimal scum play for the last two nights, if I were scum in this game (both if I were certain there was only group and if I thought there might be a decent chance of a second group).
Point 1: Based on the info Rob came out with this morning, I'm going to throw out that first point. Things still point to two Mafia groups.

Point 2: Reconciling N1 is a no-brainer now. Humble was killed by Knife mafia and either myself (or something else) prevented a second kill. I'm going to bet that since Rob got a guilty on Edger last night and I blocked Edger N1, I prevented the "non-Knife" mafia from killing. Reconciling N2 is still a bit ambiguous but much less so now in my mind.

Point 3: Rob got a guilty on Edger last night so my block of him(Edger) N1 adds weight, at least in my mind, that Rob is telling the absolute truth here. As I said above, Javert's status based solely on my block is still a bit ambiguous, at least in my mind.

Point 4: Jury is still out on that one. Best I could come up with is Kill/Blocked(or protected) Kill N1. And Blocked(or protected) Kill N2, with one group(or maybe even both) No-Killing N2 in the hopes of getting a frame fitted on the person I blocked if that person wasn't part of their group.

So, while I think the idea of getting Ice's partner has merit as it would cut down on townie deaths (1 possible NK instead of 2), the old "bird in the hand" saying comes to mind here.

VOTE: Edgerobin

Based pretty much solely on how the claimed town PRs seems to have interacted over the last 2 nights.
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Post Post #389 (isolation #33) » Sat Feb 05, 2011 6:34 am

Post by Oso »

@Mute.
[non-game]Yes they do. But within the Mini-Normal guidelines, there is almost an infinite amount of ways a Mod can balance it out.

But I'm with you, I think. I can't figure out if Jerbs is asking, "How can this game be balanced?" or rather if he is basically asking, "With what is showing and what we suspect, what power might still be out there (basically on scum's side) to balance that?"

It's called "Outguessing the Mod", which is generally useless except further along as you get more flips and more claims. At least in my opinion it is. In this game, with myself and Rob claimed, 2 nights with only 1 kill when, by our estimates, there should have been 4, plus 3 players of confirmed alignment and role in the dead list, speculation as to WHY this all happened is almost required at this point. That brings in the discussion of overall game balance.[/non-game]
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Post Post #402 (isolation #34) » Sat Feb 05, 2011 12:58 pm

Post by Oso »

Damn is that a lynch?

I have Rob, Amrun, Oso, Mute, Javert and ConSpiracy?

I didn't expect this to go so quickly.

@Javert, I'm not being deliberately difficult on this but I have no friggin clue who I'ma block tonight. Edger's out, he's lynched. You are out as I can't block you two nights in a row and I'm not going to block Rob at this point unless Edger flips town. If that happens then Rob is my block target.

My current thinking is one of the two people who I would consider the "lurkers" in this game. Prox or Jerbs. I am also seriously considering not blocking at all esp. if Edger flips scum (and I'm certain he will) so as not to inadvertently block any other town role (and I'm thinking protective type role) who might target Rob tonight. He(Rob) is the more important role of the two of us and if there is a Doc, I'd like them to be protecting Rob and not myself. By that same thinking, I really don't want to do anything that might interfere with that.

As as suggestion to Rob, either of them (Prox, Jerbs) would make good candidates in addition to whoever you might be thinking of currently because 1)Scum can and do hide in the lurker pool and (more importantly in my opinion) there is going to be a point where a lurker hunt is going to take place. If somehow any lurkers can be cleared as town by that point, that forces scum to NK them rather than using one of the easier ways to get a mis-lynch.

It's up to you though. At the risk of being accused myself of trying to direct a PR, those are my thoughts if you think them useful.
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Post Post #414 (isolation #35) » Tue Feb 08, 2011 6:37 pm

Post by Oso »

I blocked Prox last night. Out of the coin flip between him and Jerbs, he won.
RobCapone wrote:[snip]
..
Anyway I want everyone to post their thoughts but I think lynching Javert is the best way to go or am I wrong?
If any group was going to set-up the target of my block by no-killing, Night 2 would have been the best time to do it. I can't explain really why there was no kills on N2 except as the above. With everyone hot to go after my N1 Target(Edger) regardless of what DavidParker flipped (and yes, I was in that group) No-Killing on Night 2 makes a lot sense when you consider the point of view of both groups. Knife Mafia lost one and stayed hidden D2, we lynched David instead. Gun Mafia
WAS
going to lose Edger on Day 3 pretty much as a given, so
BOTH
groups had a motive to not NK N2 and hope that I didn't by chance pick one of the (non Edger)/(non ICENinja) members of the respective groups so that they could line up my target for a lynch today.

Obviously, if both did no-kill for that reason, they arrived at it independent of one another so it is possible (barely in my opinion) that I prevented a kill N2. I think it much more likely, based on the way I would have played in their position, that I did nothing of any note N2. I blocked Javert but I think there is a high possibility that both groups chose to not kill that night.

Which brings me to my vote today:

VOTE: RobCapone

[Note:Bold in the quotes put in by me]
The OP wrote:
HumblePoirot, vanilla townie, Stabbed N1

DavidParker, vanilla townie, Lynched D2.
Edgerobin, Gun mafia goon, lynched D3

{manutdforev10} replaced by
Amrun, vanilla townie, Shot N3
RobCapone - [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2774822#p2774822]here[/url] wrote:I am cop

If town I get innocent
If not I get guilty
He did throw in a comment that I'm not guaranteed to be sane but n1
I got innocent on Humble
which confirmed I'm not insane or paranoid leaving normal or naive

I got guilty on edge
so that eliminated naive.
RobCapone [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2782532#p2782532]here[/url] wrote:we are doing great but I suck at choosing investigations.

I didn't want to choose Javert because I felt he was obviously scum based on him being blocked and both kills failed.
My inno last night was amrun
, I can't tell you why chose him but just something about his post yesterday bugged me it felt like he was bussing Edge since I got a guilty.
..
[snip]
Three dead players that coincide with Rob's investigations. The two innocents show up on the dead list before we get his results, the scum shows up there as a direct result of two night actions. Mine, which incriminates him, and Rob's which leaves little room for doubt.

N1 with only a single kill and my ability to block shared group powers, along with the individual targeted, pretty much guaranteed that Edger was swinging closer to the beginning of the game than the end of it. Rob fake claimed cop to get some humongous town cred by bussing Edger and added validity by claiming HumblePoirot as his Night 1 investigation. I bought it. Humble is a good player to confirm as town or scum early in the game if you can so his(Rob's) choice of Humble didn't register as even slightly off.

What is off is his choice of investigation for last night. Not that he chose Amrun specifically but rather I thought he chose Edger as a target because of my block. He never did actually say though (or if he did, I couldn't find it) so it follows that since Javert was blocked on a No-Kill night, he'd target him. I know I suggested Prox or Jerbs as alternatives to whoever he(Rob) might be thinking of targeting but I wasn't surprised that he didn't pick either of them. With so much going on right at the moment, I would probably put the two "lurkers" low on the priority list if I were a cop instead of an RB.

Point being, there are two things has to do. 1)Avoid a counter claim and 2)Make sure no "innocent" he gets shows up as "mafia" in the dead list.

He can't do much about #1 except take a deep breath, cross his fingers and hope for the best. #2 is best done by selling the town the only result he knows is true (Edgerobin), referencing the dead guy (Humble) and then killing his investigation. If he happens to kill Member #2 of the opposite scum team, so much the better. He can sell a ture innocent to the town and have at least that person on his side for the rest of the game.
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Post Post #416 (isolation #36) » Tue Feb 08, 2011 6:49 pm

Post by Oso »

Javert wrote:..
Seeing as it is Day Four, I also would not be averse to a mass-claim. We are in a good position, and I do not want to see it go to waste.
I vote YES on that. But since I am already claimed, I may not count :)
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Post Post #418 (isolation #37) » Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:11 pm

Post by Oso »

Javert wrote:..
By the way -- and this is totally out of character for me to post as Javert -- but I am absolutely
elated
right now that it looks like I might not be lynched. I've spent the last few real-life days brooding over how this
really might
be the first game where I'm lynched as Town and being rather depressed about it.
YAUS
. Feel like doing a jig, or something.
I know how you feel. I'll have to look to get the exact number (I think it was 40-something and yes, I do keep a notes on win/losses/roles ect. They just go missing in my desk quite often) of games played before I was lynched as town. I had been vigged (both day and night) as town, recruited by cult then subsequently lynched, NKed and endgamed as town, but never lynched until recently. I owe both Nikanor and Hoopla for that one :twisted: but InflateablePie was scum so I guess I can't hold anything against him.

Back to the game. With the mass-claim (for anyone who may be opposed to it based on role) it does do one thing really well. It could help explain some of the missing kills. I'd like to think I've been playing brilliantly but please, if you have a role that invalidates any part of the "...blocked player on a 1 kill or no-kill night
MUST BE SCUM
..." equation, then please speak out. I know I'd be grateful.
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Post Post #435 (isolation #38) » Wed Feb 09, 2011 5:18 am

Post by Oso »

RobCapone wrote:..
1. Humble was stabbed and Amrun was shot so clearly I could not be part of Both mafia groups if that is what oso is trying to imply
..
Uh, wut??

If I did not make myself clear here:
Oso [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2782747#p2782747]Post-414[/url] wrote:..
N1 with only a single kill and my ability to block shared group powers, along with the individual targeted, pretty much guaranteed that Edger was swinging closer to the beginning of the game than the end of it.
Rob fake claimed cop to get some humongous town cred by bussing Edger
and added validity by claiming HumblePoirot as his Night 1 investigation. I bought it. Humble is a good player to confirm as town or scum early in the game if you can so his(Rob's) choice of Humble didn't register as even slightly off.
..
I'll clarify. You are who I think is the remaining member of the
GUN MAFIA
, Edgerobin's partner. The key word there is
"bussing"
.

As to the people who have said things against the mass-claim, I absolutely don't agree.

Mass-claim is like an individual claim. It gets done when either it is forced (MyLo,LyLo) or when it can do the most good for town. We are, at least in my opinion, at the second option. Three nights, 2 Townie kills. By my count that is 4 short of what it should have been. 1 of the 4 short is accounted for by my block of Edger. 1 of the 4 short is likely because of Magnus. That leaves 2 unexplained.

We need to know, today in my opinion, if there are any other town roles that could possibly explain either of those two deaths. Lynching my block targets is all well and good but I think of at least two situations (based on what we know right now) that could point fingers at two players (Javert, Prox) based on my results alone but depending on what actually happened those nights, conclusions based on my results alone may not be as accurate as I (or anyone else) would want them to be.
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Post Post #449 (isolation #39) » Wed Feb 09, 2011 7:17 am

Post by Oso »

[Pre-Edit: I noticed that Magnus is clarifying his role a bit but I spent so much time and skull sweat on this, I'ma post it anyway]

This is going to probably be a wall folks but I'ma try to my put current thoughts out on what I think happened the first 3 nights and how my blocks and Magnus' actions (and even some unknowns) might have affected them (for the record, I believe Magnus' claim at the moment. I had him as probable town in my mind from the end of D1 pretty much based on his playing.)

Night 1
(This is what I am certain happened)
  • Knife Mafia
    kills Humble Poirot
  • I block Edgerobin, preventing
    Gun Mafia's
    NK
  • Magnus still has an active save.
Night 2
  • NO NIGHT KILLS AT ALL

  • Possible explanations
    • Javert blocked, Mafia (second group) kills me, Magnus saves me, save used up.
      Javert=Scum

    • Javert blocked, I was "double tapped", Magnus saved me, save used up.
      Javert=Town

    • Javert blocked, 1 Mafia No-Killed, Magnus saved me, save used up.
      Javert=Ambiguous

    • Javert blocked, 1 Mafia No-Killed, I wasn't the target of the killing group so there was some other mechanic/role at work that prevented the kill. Magnus' save still active.
      Javert=Ambiguous.

    • Javert blocked, Both Mafia No-Killed, Magnus' save still active.
      Javert=Ambiguous

    • Javert blocked, Both Mafia's tried to kill, I wasn't the target so there was some other mechanic/role at work that prevented the kills. Magnus' save still active.
      Javert=Town

    • I was blocked. So Javert wasn't. Even if Javert was scum and blocked me, we would have cancelled each other out and I would have never had a chance to block the group Night Kill.
      Javert=Ambiguous
      (but leaning strong town. If I was blocked (even by Javert himself) there should have been at least one kill that night unless Javert was Mafia and he chose to No-Kill)
Night 3
  • Amrun killed by
    GUN MAFIA

  • No
    KNIFE MAFIA
    kill
  • Possible explanations
    • I blocked Prox, Knife Mafia No-Killed.
      Prox=Ambiguous
      (I am not even seriously considering this, it is just included for completeness sake)
    • I blocked Knife Mafia:Prox.
      Prox=Scum
      (a good possibilty)
    • I blocked Prox, Magnus still has an active save, Magnus saves Rob.
      Prox=Town
      (I think this just as likely as me blocking (scum)Prox.)
To tie this all together into what I think happened:

@Magnus, I really don't think you saved me N2. We won't be sure until after the game is over but with the early indications of the thread's willingness to lynch Edger based on my block alone, I think it highly likely that both scum groups left me alone Night 2 hoping that 1)Gun Mafia: Lending weight to Edger's defense by No-Killing so as to make it look as if there is another role out there preventing kills, in addition to making ICENinja's rant look like he was just adding confusion and the possibility of framing block target when Edger flipped scum. 2)Knife Mafia: Down to one member, No-Killed to frame my target.

That is why I was (still am to certain degree) against pre-announcing my block targets. Unless it is bulletproofed, it's too easy to get a townie lynched. But seeing as how it's getting on into the game, most of my objections to announcing block targets are pretty much gone at the moment.

So, if I'm right and you didn't save me Night 2, you had an active save going into Night 3. Knife Mafia had to kill last night. A Claimed buffed-up RB and Claimed Cop with the only safe bet they can make is that both are true claiming and try and kill one of them. Rob is the most dangerous to either Mafia if true-claimed so he would most likely draw kills and by that thinking Doc protection, so I would be the target. I'm still alive so that points strongly to the fact I may have saved myself last night by blocking Prox or that Knife Mafia WIFOMed itself into targeting Rob and you prevented their kill.

Rob
IS
Gun Mafia. The only reason I'm not dead by a bullet is because Gun Mafia went Doc hunting last night instead of taking a chance I'd draw Doc protection and having a failed kill. Rob knows he's mafia so it wouldn't be much of a stretch to convince himself that I was the more "obvTown" of the two claimed roles and more likely to draw protection than his role.

So, Rob is scum. Neither Javert or Prox look good but depending on what has actually happened, neither is obvScum based on my blocks alone.

It all depends on how you folks think the two scum groups acted N2. My personal opinion agrees a bit with what Rob said (I think it was Rob) that No-Killing early in the game is bad, we have Edger's flip and ICENinja's flip to reinforce that both groups were thinking that on N1. My claim changed that though, now No-Killing N2 looks attractive despite the fact is runs counter to generally "good" scum play.

If we are not going to lynch Rob today, my vote would be Prox (yes, I'm buying into the hype on this role a bit) as I think it more likely I blocked a kill N3 than on N2 but with an even chance (based on how I think things have worked so far in the game) that Prox is gonna flip town.

Rob is my choice for today with Prox as a distant second and Javert as
VERY
distant third. As a matter of fact, I can't really see any way Javert would get my vote today.
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Post Post #452 (isolation #40) » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:13 am

Post by Oso »

RobCapone wrote:Oso the fact you are so against Javert's lynch is very odd and advocating the lynch of the cop is even stranger
Let's get this straight. I am not advocating lynching the cop. I am advocating the lynch of the scum who has constructed a fake-claim of cop using the one piece of information he is certain of (His partner's, Edgerobin, alignment) and two pieces of information that were public knowledge before he made us aware of them. The alignment of HumblePoirot and Amrun.

He constructed the fake-claim N2 with input from his partner (who was going to be swinging in any case) so as to give him(you Rob) the maximum amount of town credibility with the least amount of risk. It is a gambit. The only dicey part is/was a counter claim and inadvertently "clearing" the remaining member of the Knife Mafia and either having him in the endgame with you (Rocks Fall, Everbody Dies) or show up as non-investigation immune scum in the dead list after being "cleared".

Avoiding the first part relies partially on luck but also some not-to-difficult guess work based on my claimed role and the power you know at least one of the mafia groups have. I'ma guess 2 groups of plain-vanilla goon scum groups. With my claimed powers, taking the shot that there is no cop isn't that much of a risk. A cop/buffed RB on town side vs 2 plain vanilla scum groups is tilted in favor of town. What is much more likely is that the game is balanced on town side with super RB/<weaker role(s) here> combo rather than a super RB/Cop/<whatever> combo. The Cop false-claim isn't at that much of a risk for a counter even with only my claim showing.

The second part is easier but actually more risky if you think about it. You can only "investigate" dead folks. The only person whose alignment you are certain of (other than your own) is Edger's. Even selling "innocents" (fairly safe in a one Mafia Game) has different consequences here. So your targets have to already be dead or you have to kill them as you "investigate" them.
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Post Post #456 (isolation #41) » Wed Feb 09, 2011 9:18 am

Post by Oso »

Javert wrote:For the record, I just checked up on Prox-- he had not posted anywhere on site since January 24.
..
I verified that myself and also, he was just replaced 3 days ago in another game where he had timed out I guess so I need to amend my thoughts on Prox.

If he is scum, then you won't be able to prove it my block. If he is scum, and absent, there was no knife kill last night because of that. Not because of anything I did.

@MOD: jimmfinn, if it doesn't compromise the game at all, can I ask if Prox has been prodded at any point?
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Post Post #460 (isolation #42) » Wed Feb 09, 2011 12:37 pm

Post by Oso »

@RobCapone.

No, I can't. Things are lining up too conveniently for my taste in regards to your claim. Had either of your innocents been in the pool of currently living players, I wouldn't be having these bad thoughts about your claim. Had you investigated me, Javert or either of the lurkers (even if the person you investigated out of those four ended up dead), I wouldn't be having bad thoughts about your claim.

If you are town, then you have had about the worst luck of any Cop player I've ever seen. That is the only scenario I can see you as town at the moment....plain bad luck.
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Post Post #461 (isolation #43) » Wed Feb 09, 2011 2:07 pm

Post by Oso »

I've had more time today to fiddle with the computer today than I have had in a long time.

ICENinja - Knife Goon
Edgerobin - Gun Goon
HumblePoirot - VT
Amrun - VT
DavidParker - VT

Oso(me) - RB
RobCapone - Cop
magnus_orion - Doc
Javert - VT
Mute - VT

ConSpiracy - ???
Jerbs - ???
Prox - ???

@ConSpiracy, Jerbs and Prox (if he is indeed still around). Agree or disagree with the mass claim, it has happened. Please claim.
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Post Post #471 (isolation #44) » Thu Feb 10, 2011 1:26 pm

Post by Oso »

RobCapone wrote:..
I have provided everything I know about my role and I have explained my reasoning for investigating the person I investigated and now I am really suspicious of Oso because he has the most town cred right now and I have never even heard of his role, and the more I think of it, i don't think his role would even pass the review process because it is too powerful of a town role. a RB that can block an entire faction's night kill?

doesn't add up to me, but like I said a cop/doc/RB setup with 2 mafia groups does make sense so idk
..
I was wondering when/if this was going to happen.

The following quotes by RobCapone (bold by me)
Post 385 wrote:Btw 2 mafia groups (4 mafia) with a Cop, Doc,
RB
is pretty balanced IMO
Post 395 wrote:..
Cause the game is about lynching scum and waiting real life days isn't going to teach us anything

Plus oso blocking you
doesn't make you look good anyways
Post 421 wrote:*ebwop

this comment should actually say

Javert was
blocked
and both groups kills failed so it makes more sense that he is scum.


Also remember Javert had to have his arm twisted to vote yesteday and last night there was a gun kill

Gun mafia = Javert and Edgerobin
Knifemafia = IceNinja and I guess
Prox since he was blocked
last night.
(There are others, but I didn't want to turn this into a quote wall. ISO Rob and pay attention to pages 4/5 and you will find some more)

Apparently, from what I can see, I'm not suspicious if my role is being used to cast suspicion on my block targets. Take away my role and let me be a player relying on a line of thought that doesn't use my role, then all of a sudden Rob spews this:
...I have never even heard of his role, and the more I think of it, i don't think his role would even pass the review process because it is too powerful of a town role. a RB that can block an entire faction's night kill?


As long as I am relying exclusively on my role results to base my suspicions on, all is right in Rob's world it seems.

If that seems a bit sarcastic, it is. On purpose. Read your own comments from since this day started. You asked that you be left alive so I can block you, you have suggested that I block you or Javert, you suggested that Prox is probably scum based on my block alone. You said you investigated Edger here to find out if I was legit.

Now, when I am the only person who is voting you (granted, not the only one who is suspicious) and also willing to leave my role results behind for a moment to form suspicions and votes not based on them, you decide that I might not be what I say am.

You can't have it both ways Rob. Either you believed my claim could be true, or believed I was lying all along. And if you believed there is good chance I was lying, why were you willing to base any suspicions and lynch candidates based on my results?
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Post Post #475 (isolation #45) » Thu Feb 10, 2011 2:04 pm

Post by Oso »

RobCapone wrote:..
I never doubted your claim for a minute until today when you swear I'm scum and you put
javert 3rd on your list
as possible lynch targets
..
The bold, yes I did put him 3rd. There is a possibility that I did in fact block him from killing on N2. If we take it that Magnus saved me night 2 then he could have indeed been a second killer that was blocked. That is why he is not off my list of suspects and won't be until he flips or we get to the end of game and we all know how this was set up.

Edger was blocked N1 when no one had any idea there was a role with my powers in the game. So that block has a high probability of having done just exactly what we all thought it did: Blocked a kill. After I claimed, it became a bit more problematic. I got lucky N1. Unless I have been supremely lucky (as in all the stars aligned lucky) he is probably the only scum I blocked because I chose Edger and Javert to block for both the same reasons. I liked the way they were posting and wasn't searching for scum in either case. I was trying to use this role to
CONFIRM TOWNIES
. By the way I read my role (and from what ICENinja said before he swung) two kills in a night + my block = a confirmed townie.

But since each night that I blocked, there is a missing kill, no one who I blocked is off my suspect list by any means. I haven't come right and said it but I'm sure Javert realizes this as well. I am not going to vote him today, but he has no guarantee that he won't be swinging before the end of the game because of my blocking him on a no-kill night whether I push it or not.
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Post Post #480 (isolation #46) » Thu Feb 10, 2011 3:54 pm

Post by Oso »

I really hate going after a lurker/flake with so much other info in the game BUT, even though I might not agree with Javert on the reason that Prox might have flaked, he did flake out of 2 games (this one and another ongoing game) at the same time and at the time Knife kills stopped showing up.

I'ma have to think on this some. If the knife kills did stop because Prox flaked, then my block can't be used against him so we'd back to lynching a lurker/flake using basically out of game information to explain something that is happening in game. Unless you think the (hypothetical)stink between him and ICENinja was enough for him to flake the commitments in 2 games then I guess we are back to using in game info for in game purposes.

Not my favorite way of determining a lynch to be honest :?
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Post Post #481 (isolation #47) » Thu Feb 10, 2011 4:01 pm

Post by Oso »

Add-on to last post.

Random thought that just hit me. If the knife kills did stop because Prox flaked, that would pretty much clear Javert if we assume that Magnus saved me from the gun kill N2. Gun Killer shoots me/Magnus saves. Prox is flaked Knife mafia, Javert is blocked and innocent.
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Post Post #483 (isolation #48) » Thu Feb 10, 2011 4:38 pm

Post by Oso »

'nother random thought.

Doesn't let you off the hook as far as I'm concerned though Rob.

Even if Prox is flaked Knife Mafia, gun mafia should have been shooting at you or me last night. If Magnus did save me N2 he didn't have an active save N3 (if I am understanding his role correctly) so even though he protected you, you weren't really protected. You and I are still here so you we weren't shot at (obvious as Amrum caught the bullet last night). The point is (aside from the fact this isn't the "Why are the claimed PRs still alive..." WIFOM) one of us should be dead.

I'm still here because Magnus DID save me N2 and Gun Mafia knows it, they assumed I'd draw protection again. If the remaining gunner thought the protection would switch to you, I'd be dead. If he thought I'd keep it, despite my saying I thought you were the more important role, you would be dead.

Either you are I are the remaining gunner (and it ain't me). The only we are both still alive is A)I've been lying through my teeth and am using this to get you lynched. In which case if we lynch Prox and if he is Knife Mafia, we lynch you, you flip town, game over. I'm lynched as a lying bastard.

You didn't shoot me because you just assumed since I was saved N2 that no matter what was said, whoever did it would double protect because the Doc usually sticks with successful saves, or saves they think were successful.

The only way we are both town, by my way of thinking, is if the remaining gunner picked up enough out the last part of Day 3 to be reasonably sure that Amrun would be your investigation target over say me or Javert so they killed Amrun hoping that this exact situation would come up.

Of course, if Prox does flip town (if we do indeed lynch him) then we are right back to where we were before. Trying to explain 2 1-kill nights and 1 No-Kill Night with two active mafias instead of 1 active mafia and one flaked mafia.
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Post Post #486 (isolation #49) » Thu Feb 10, 2011 6:30 pm

Post by Oso »

RobCapone wrote:..
A. Amrun was killed to make Javert look like scum
B. Javert is scum and he killed Amrun


to imply that the ONLY way we both can be town is that mafia figured out somehow who I was going to investigate and killed them makes no sense, expecially based on the reactions of the remaining town when I told everyone I investigated Amrun.
..
A)Why? If someone wanted to frame Javert, my block of him on a no-kill night would do that just great. Hell, even Javert figured he had and better than even chance of being lynched today with my block on him. They had no idea that the pressure would never really develop on Javert today. At least not enough to go out of their way to try and add to that by trying to night-kill frame him ESPECIALLY since they had two targets in me and you. And remember, if Magnus saved me night 2, gun mafia knows there is a protective role going into night 3. So they have two nice juicy town PRs and probably only one protector.

B)Again, why. Same logic as above. Two PRs that way more dangerous to him than Amrun.

There is one other way that I did think of that we can both still be alive and both still be town (but it relies on you having very bad luck). Gun Mafia got so paranoid about losing another Night Kill that they bypassed the whole "which PR might draw the protection" dilemma and went Doc hunting. That they shot the target of your investigation was just pure coincidence. Bad luck does happen, just like good luck does and it has to be factored in but I just don't know how to do that with any accuracy.

I don't have a problem with your choice of HumblePoirot. I've played with him before and he's a good town player so I also assume he's decent at playing scum. Targeting him for an investigation makes sense to me N1 in any game so you know you can trust him (if town) or get rid of him immediately (if scum). That he also drew a Night-Kill right out of the barn doesn't surprise me either. It makes sense (if you have played with him before) that he has a good chance of drawing the attention of both Mafia and Town PRs night 1, just on general principles.

I don't have a problem with you investigating Edger. I blocked him on a night where we only had 1 kill when the general thinking was we should have had 2.

I don't have a real problem with you not investigating me over someone else. My block of Edger and your investigation, if you are town, of Edger pretty much confirms me as town as there is no reason to set up that elaborate a bus on Day 2 with neither Edger or myself under any serious scrutiny Day 1.

I don't have a real problem with you investigating Amrun in and of itself.

What I do have a problem with is not investigating Javert. After your investigating Edger on my block, it looks as if you don't want to confirm him nor do you want to waste an NK on a very good chance at a mis-lynch if you are scum. As you said, he was so scummy you didn't feel the need to confirm him but the fact is that you had the claimed power to do just that, confirm him one way or the other and you didn't. It looks like you left mis-lynch material out there to use at your leisure.

So, bad luck if you are town. The game has played out to look(to me at least) as if you constructed a claim to bus a partner that was going to swing anyway, crossed your fingers, and then used someone already dead and someone that you killed to get "confirmed" alignments on your investigations for innocents while leaving the one person most implicated by my role-blocks just flapping in the breeze for use later.

It is not any one thing Rob, its the whole series of events. The most damning part of it is that after I claimed, most all of my results became subject to manipulation by scum (something I have to think on if I get a similar role again as far as when to claim goes) and you had the claimed power to clear or confirm Javert as scum and didn't. That is not town. That is not even anti-town. That is scum leaving usable material for later.

But
UNVOTE: RobCapone
Pending replacement, I'll vote Prox. If he does flip Knife Mafia then we have an explanation for one of the no-kills night two and the no-kill last night (not because of my block though). As I said earlier, most folks are assuming magnus saved me N2 so that would clear Javert based on my block. If this role can't definitively and reliably point out scum, I'll do my best to try and confirm town with it.
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Post Post #497 (isolation #50) » Sat Feb 12, 2011 6:22 am

Post by Oso »

Welcome Shattered Viewpoint.

Checking in as I missed yesterday for the most part. Nothing major has changed I see.
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Post Post #498 (isolation #51) » Sat Feb 12, 2011 8:23 am

Post by Oso »

@Rob, this may seem like I'm pounding on you some more but I'm not. It's me pretty much thinking out loud about the claimed PRs/VTs (and yes, I did try to step out of my role at look at my claim as well. So I included myself here).

Oso - Super RB.

Claimed Day 2 with a block of Edger. Edger flipped Gun Mafia. I'm not Gun Mafia as bussing Edger at that point makes no sense. ICE's flip would have confirmed to Gun Mafia there was a second group so no reason at all for either Edger or I to be worried in the slightest. Neither of us had any serious doubts thrown at us Day 1. Could be Knife Mafia though. I saw the trouble ICE was in and bussed him hard despite it being Day 1. Cobbled up this claim when we had a one kill night and ICE and I were reasonably certain there was a second group. I knew Edger stood a good chance of being "other" mafia because I did block Edger. I am an RB, just a scum RB. Plan being to No-Kill and frame my targets. Hopefully though, my play thus far has dispelled any thoughts along those lines.

Rob - Cop

Claimed Day 3 with a guilty on Edger. Edger flipped scum. Rob is not Knife Mafia. I have not blocked Rob(if you folks do believe my claim) so since ICENinja is dead there is no way I could have prevented any Knife Mafia kills so far in the game if Rob is Knife Mafia. So if Rob is Knife Mafia, any kill attempts he made would have to have failed by other means. He could be Gun Mafia based on the reasoning I used in previous posts. Small disclaimer here: I think my reasoning is sound but I will go so far as to give Rob the fact that what I am using to make me think he is guilty can be explained by a run of bad luck and coincidences and there is the matter that we have the whole game claimed right now and there is no counter to the Cop claim so at it's very base, either he is the Cop or the game doesn't have one. Everybody's own personal theory of game balance is going to have to come into play there. If you think game balance says there is a cop in this game, then no matter what I (or anyone else) say or how much sense it may(or may not) make, you really have no choice, Rob is the cop.

magnus_orion - Nerfed Doctor

Claimed Day 4. No doubt in my mind. He is 100% what he claims to be. No Counter claim but even before that we had a no-kill night. Even hypothetically granting I blocked one of them by blocking Javert, he(magnus) pretty much had to stop one himself. I am reversing myself on one of the no-kills being explained by one (or both) of the Mafia groups deliberately No-Killing N2. Unlike N1, when Gun Mafia had no reason to think there was a role with my powers in the game, on Night 2 there is plenty of reason to believe (or strongly suspect) that there is a protector in the game but the only way to know for sure is to hit the obvious target. If you are right, you have confirmed the presence of a protector and in addition, shows you a claim you can't use as a false claim. If not, you just killed a dangerous PR. That is a Good/Very Good no-brainer choice there. I'm a bit put out with myself though, that it took me this long to shoot great big holes through that thought. So magnus is confirmed town in my opinion.

Javert - VT

I think he is most probably town. That said, he was the target of a block by me on N2 (a no-kill night) so I'ma condense this a bit. If the missing knife kills are a result of a flaked player, he's probably town because magnus saved me from a gun kill N2 and Javert was blocked so he couldn't be killing anyone unless I just happened to luck out and get the second member of the gun mafia team and Magnus didn't save me. If the missing knife kill N2/N3 can't be explained by a flaked player and we've have had 2 active groups all three nights, then he's right back in the pool of suspects again in my mind. That is where I am going round and round in my mind in regards to Javert. If we have two active killing groups (prox not flaked knife mafia) then either magnus saved me from a "double tap" and Javert is town, or that magnus still saved me but I blocked one of the kills. Even if Prox(now Shattered) was Knife Mafia and flaked, Javert could have still been blocked and it only looks as if magnus saved me. If I am completely honest with myself, a part of the reason I am so put out with Rob at the moment may be because he
DIDN'T INVESTIGATE JAVERT
:mad: and solve this question for good. A result on a non-dead player would have been been good enough to class Rob as Town, but a result on a non-dead Javert, would have been just what would have cemented Rob as obvTown just as firmly as magnus is in my mind.

Shattered View Point(Prox), Mute, ConSpiracy, Jerbs - VTs

Need to look at all of them in detail. I have to admit I've been concentrating on my own role and how the other PRs might have interacted as they claimed so of all the claimed Vanillas, only Javert, DavidParker(deceased) and to a lesser degree Shattered(Prox) and Jerbs have gotten any thought by me.
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Post Post #511 (isolation #52) » Sun Feb 13, 2011 10:01 am

Post by Oso »

@ Shattered in regards to Rob.

Knife Mafia or Gun mafia. Why?

If Gun Mafia, who would be your choice for the remaining Knife mafia?

If Knife Mafia, who would be your choice for the remaining Gun Mafia?
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Post Post #513 (isolation #53) » Sun Feb 13, 2011 11:07 am

Post by Oso »

Question on that then.

Can you reconcile the nights with all that?
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Post Post #516 (isolation #54) » Sun Feb 13, 2011 11:33 am

Post by Oso »

Meh, I don't want to get into a Rules discussion but I don't really think I'm a variant role. If I block town, then I'm a normal RB. Town has no "group" action. If we are in a plain vanilla goon game then I'd pretty much be useless against mafia, I'd only be a danger to town.

Hence I agree with ConSpiracy on one point. Mafia has no active power other than their night kill. I just have had my target area somewhat improved in that in order to be effective against mafia, I only have to target a member of their group to shut down an NK. The "can't target the same player two nights in a row" is a safety valve to keep from shutting down one mafia completely by blocking one person continuously (a good example here would have been Edger).

But I do agree with Javert, it could still be non-normal because we have two roles that don't conform exactly (as in 100%) to the accepted "normal" versions of the role.

All I know for sure is that before ConSpiracy posted, I wasn't even thinking of voting magnus and that hasn't changed.

I'll be voting Shattered Viewpoint just as soon as I am certain he's oriented to the game and answered some of the questions directed at him.
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Post Post #517 (isolation #55) » Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:43 pm

Post by Oso »

Whoa!

That is so cool.

I just noticed the "Activity Overview" option right below the page numbers at the bottom right of the page.

I wonder if that is just for this thread or site-wide?
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Post Post #525 (isolation #56) » Sun Feb 13, 2011 4:59 pm

Post by Oso »

Happy Birthday. I had my own 9 days ago. 46 and I could swear only last week I was still in my 20's

That goes without saying Javert. Rob is not going to swing today so no matter what the chance I think he might be false-claiming, I won't be blocking him. Nor will I block Magnus.

Just give a me couple or three hours or so to think on it and I'll name my block target. Not stalling, just haven't thought too much about who to block tonight. Truth be told, last night with Rob claimed and myself claimed, I was totally surprised when the game opened and I wasn't dead. I figured no matter how anyone thought about it, that Rob as the claimed Cop would draw any protector that might be in the game.

Figured I was done for.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #57) » Sun Feb 13, 2011 6:19 pm

Post by Oso »

Ok this:
Javert wrote:If Shattered Viewpoint flips Knife Goon, then we can safely say scum do not have power roles. In that case, I would suggest that Oso and RobCapone target different players; that way, we could possibly get good information on two players. For example:

If Oso blocks me, and RobCapone investigates somebody else, then no matter what happens we learn something. If there is a nightkill, I am cleared. If there is not a nightkill, RobCapone gets an investigation (which will either clear or condemn somebody).

In other words, I would (yet again) suggest that Oso claim who he is going to block before we hit Night Four. As I have pointed out many times, if Oso dies we need to know who he targeted to learn anything. I would then suggest that RobCapone not tell us who he is going to investigate, and that it not be the same person Oso blocks. And finally, I suggest that magnus_orion protect either RobCapone or Oso, without telling us which.
No matter what Shattered flips I'll do that. Block Javert again.

I have no advice (nor would I give it at this point even if I did) on what either Rob or magnus should do except to say that Javert's idea in regards to Rob is a good one. If we split our actions, better chance of getting a useful result.

VOTE: Shattered Viewpoint

I looked at that should be 3(Rob, Javert and myself) of 5 so L-2.
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Post Post #529 (isolation #58) » Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:26 am

Post by Oso »

Oso wrote:Question on that then.

Can you reconcile the nights with all that?
I re-ask that question of ConSpiracy.

Without using cross-kill immunity in the Mafia groups (which we won't be able to confirm until after the game) reconcile what happened Nights 1,2 and 3 using any combination of the following:
  1. Intentional No-Kills by one or both of the Mafia Groups
  2. Both claims are false.
  3. My claim is False, magnus' is True
  4. My claim is True, magnus' is False
  5. Both claims are True
[Preview edit from seeing Shattered's post]
Hell, go ahead and in a flaked player/missed night actions(s) into that if you want. But please answer this question:

How is magnus scum and both Rob and I are both still breathing?
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Post Post #536 (isolation #59) » Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:11 am

Post by Oso »

Sorry, meant to address this as well.
ConSpiracy wrote:..
I want anybody in this thread explain to me how any of these two roles can be explained with these possible roles. If there is a right explanation, I will drop this case.
..
AND
..
You say the right thing "IF" you block town. If you block mafia however, you block the entire party, which is not a normal roleblocker. You role even has a different name than roleblocker.
True. But the point I was trying to get across (and failing I guess) is that in a game that only has plain vanilla goons, an RB is useless against mafia, it is only a danger to town PRs. In order to balance the role out an RB would have something added to make it "effective" (making it conform to the Mini-Normal rule of not having ineffective roles). It's approaching the line a bit as a "normal" role, but my opinion is in this game, my role is a "normal" RB. No matter how it looks.

I am effective at blocking both town at mafia. Since mafia has no individual powers, I have to be able to block their Night Kill in order to qualify as "effective". I was given a restriction to avoid making the role a game breaker (at least in regards to a specific mafia group). jimfinn may have had to jump through some hoops to convince the review committee of this but:

I am a normal RB.
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Post Post #537 (isolation #60) » Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:16 am

Post by Oso »

EBWOP:

I forgot to add that if you think I need to still have to target the designated killer, then that would be something that would make my role non-normal. I could still be effective against mafia that way.
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Post Post #544 (isolation #61) » Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:56 am

Post by Oso »

This
RobCapone wrote:..
night 3 - went doc hunting since he felt safe he would not be investigated, and since I got inno on the dead guy used that to discredit me
..
tbh oso makes more sense out of the 2 as scum, especially with the instant town cred he earned once I proved edger was scum.
Fair point but I'll counter.

If I went Doc hunting and killed Amrun, then that means I'm gun mafia. Why claim I blocked Edgerobin on N1? Neither of us were under any sort of suspicion Day 1. And with ICENinja flipping Knife Mafia we would have
known for certain
there were two mafia so in order for me to be Gun Mafia, we would have had to no-kill N1 then I claim to have blocked him knowing it would lead to his lynch. This done on a night when we would be pretty certain neither of us were under any major suspicion.

Remember, you only investigated Edger because of my claim. My block of Edger only adds credibility to your claim Rob, not the other way around. Edger was swinging on Day 3 no matter what David flipped and no matter if there was any additional evidence of his guilt or not based on the fact that no one seriously thinks Mafia is going to no-kill on Night 1.
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Post Post #549 (isolation #62) » Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:20 am

Post by Oso »

Shattered Viewpoint wrote:
ConSpiracy wrote:
Rob and SV
, why lynching someone who is (in your eyes) high likely to be scum when we can 100% lynch scum either today or tomorrow?
I don't understand this question. Can you put it into English for me, please?

Thanks, ever so.

Also: I don't do setup speculation. It's scummy, and there's no place for it. Outguessing the mod is Not Mafia.
I do set-up speculation... a lot, but in this case ConSpiracy has set the stage for a VERY dangerous situation for town.

It's called a False Dichotomy. If A is True(Town) then B must be False(Scum) (and vice-versa). That's is well and good if there is a situation where you are (more than) reasonably certain there are no other alternatives.

It bites you in the ass in this case if ConSpiracy is wrong. Both alternatives are equally bad for town if he is wrong.

We are both town. You lynch both claimed roles based on the first one flipping town.

We are both lying. You leave the second player as confirmed town after the first flip reveals scum.

Find something in the game that supports one of us lying and one of us truthful, both lying or both telling the truth and use that. I have no problem with using rules as a starting point, back it up though.

And I'll add this and you can take it for what you want, jimfinn said in Post-518:

"...so setup speculation based on their guidelines may not be in any player's interest."


Is a not so subtle warning about the direction this speculation is going. Whether you think the speculation is going to break the game in town's favor or scum's, he definitely wants it to stop in my opinion.
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Post Post #556 (isolation #63) » Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:21 am

Post by Oso »

tl;dr: Let's lynch Shattered Viewpoint. Conspiracy is wrong.

ConSpiracy.

Maybe the language barrier is causing some sort of confusion here.

I'll try it again.

No I won't, you are seriously pissing me off here.

Get your nose out of the MD thread and back in this game and show us why magnus is scum or show everyone else why I am scum and don't use any of this "well the rules say.." bullshit.

Play the game, not the fucking rules :evil:
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Post Post #559 (isolation #64) » Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:29 pm

Post by Oso »

I'll confirm what I said earlier.

I'll block Javert again tonight.
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Post Post #562 (isolation #65) » Mon Feb 14, 2011 1:29 pm

Post by Oso »

Doesn't matter.

A guilty would be good but at this point, an innocent on a living player is as useful as a guilty.
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Post Post #581 (isolation #66) » Sat Feb 19, 2011 1:15 pm

Post by Oso »

I'm here.

Quick pop in to say I have been without electricity and phone (same tree got both of them) since Thursday evening.

Confirming, I blocked Javert so as far as I'm concerned, he's cleared in my eyes.

Rereading posts since Rob's death notice and will post some later. (Trees and falling snow permitting)
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Post Post #582 (isolation #67) » Sat Feb 19, 2011 3:46 pm

Post by Oso »

Ok, I can't see any obvious flaws in Javert's plan. I will think on it some more but it seems pretty much bulletproof. Scum screwed up (although they wouldn't have anyway of knowing it at the time) by not killing Javert (or me) the night following my first investigation of him. It allowed the situation we are now in. Scum can't kill conf.town fast enough to get out of this from what I can see. Kill one, I provide another. Kill me, then magnus is scum. "Rock and hard place..." comes to mind.

@ConSpiracy, I'd like to apologize (in part) for the comment I threw your direction at the end of the day before SV's lynch. It was much more rude than it should have been. After the game, I'll be happy to tell you why it bugged me so much. For the record, using the rules as starting place to scum hunt is not a bad idea in the least.
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Post Post #583 (isolation #68) » Sat Feb 19, 2011 6:01 pm

Post by Oso »

(Triple post I know)

Ok then, I don't see problem with this.

If Magnus is scum (as ConSpiracy believes) then Javert is right, he can't kill me w/o being lynched and has pretty much hosed himself. What happens there is we have exactly one too many confirmed town (Javert or Mute) after tonight. He'd have to kill one of them. He can't kill me (kill last night means he should have an active ability tonight) and he can't let another confirmed townie out there. But even by killing my block targets it gets to the point where there is Me, one of my block targets and him. He gets lynched in Lynch or Lose because we always have one more confirmed town than he can kill.

If Magnus is town then a No-Kill gets Mutes lynched tomorrow with me blocking Jerbs after that. Even if a player (Jerbs in this case) tries a kill on me to use up magnus' save in hopes of framing him by killing me, it still doesn't work. The only people who are able to do that are ConSpiracy, Mute and Jerbs.

One of them (Conspiracy) gets the noose today so he can't do that. Mute gets blocked tonight so if he is scum, he can't use up magnus' save, if Jerbs does it he still gets blocked the following night and lynched the day after following a no-kill night.

^^That's kind of long winded but that is the point you were trying to get across right Javert?
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Post Post #585 (isolation #69) » Sun Feb 20, 2011 5:07 am

Post by Oso »

[personal opinion post]

Sure.

Basically (without going into a wall post here), you took a piece of information, the rules in this case, to form a starting point. No problem with that.

The problem comes in, for me at least, is that you never more than half-halfheartedly tried to back up that premise with anything in the game. Anything that calls for another player's lynch should be attacked or at least examined, from the initial suspicion all the way to the hammer. When your line of reasoning was questioned, you fell back on the rules hard and abandoned even what little in-game reasoning you did have.

Your thought was/is a good one. If you are convinced it's true, then you should be able to find something from either player (magnus or myself) in our play that validates your theory. Based on your thoughts, one of us is lying. Unless the one of us that is lying is very good at it, you should be able to find evidence of that in the game that can be used independently of (or perhaps in addition to) just quoting the rules as validation of the theory. At the very least, starting with how you would play scum in this situation as a base, use what has happened in the game to show definitively (if only to yourself) which one of us is scum and then tell us.

Your whole premise of one of us being false-claimed simply on the rules holds too many assumptions for my taste. Assumptions that can't be clarified until after the game is over unless we take your theory alone as proof of itself and start lynching based on it, something that goes counter to my view on how mafia should be played. But that is one person's opinion, others may feel different.

[/personal opinion post]
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Post Post #588 (isolation #70) » Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:28 am

Post by Oso »

Javert wrote:I suppose I will hold off on voting since Jerbs and Mute have not posted on-site since the plan was proposed. Hurry it up, you rapscallions.
I don't see what they could add to, or take away from it. I've run over several different ways to try and see if the plan can bite us in the ass but I can't see how no matter how I tweak it.

VOTE: ConSpiracy
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Post Post #590 (isolation #71) » Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:34 am

Post by Oso »

True that^^
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Post Post #594 (isolation #72) » Tue Feb 22, 2011 10:54 am

Post by Oso »

A vote would be good then.

(Hope everyone is all right)
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Post Post #597 (isolation #73) » Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:17 pm

Post by Oso »

I'm for going ahead but we have almost a week before deadline.

As long as we don't fart around and hit a no-lynch on deadline, I've no objection to waiting for him to put in an appearance.
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Post Post #599 (isolation #74) » Wed Feb 23, 2011 4:18 am

Post by Oso »

I just checked. Jerbs last posted in any thread on the 16th.

Waiting on him may be a waste of time. Since the plan is the same no matter the order:

UNVOTE: ConSpiracy

VOTE: Jerbs

If the day ends before I look at the thread again, I will block ConSpiracy tonight if lynching Jerbs doesn't end the game.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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Post Post #609 (isolation #75) » Wed Feb 23, 2011 1:52 pm

Post by Oso »

:mrgreen:

I liked this game
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Post Post #610 (isolation #76) » Wed Feb 23, 2011 1:53 pm

Post by Oso »

Amrun wrote:The N1 target was the same haha.
I've played with Humble before. He's a pretty strong player. That he drew the attention of a town PR and both mafia doesn't surprise me at all.
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Post Post #614 (isolation #77) » Wed Feb 23, 2011 3:42 pm

Post by Oso »

jimfinn wrote:..
I honestly think if Ice hadn't been pegged D1
for a case I didn't even understand
, and if the N1 results hadn't been quite the targets they were, the game would've been a very close game. As it played out, town got the extreme early advantage, and just kept rolling, but that was due to a lucky D1 lynch and N1 RB, plus partially due to ICE's info in his frustration post.
I think the case against ICENinja was sort of like that story with the 4 blind guys and the elephant. Each by themselves couldn't tell what they were holding on to but collectively they did.

The point I brought up against him was a neon sign to scum in my view but I'd have understood anyone refusing to vote on that alone. I think it was that you had several different players presenting parts of a case that when added up (like Humble did in his last post), equaled scum enough to make everyone comfortable with their vote.

The lynch I regret is David's. Ego/confirmation bias, whichever, but I had convinced myself that since we had played together in a game recently, that he was deliberately screwing with his own meta. That I could "logically" (at least in my own mind) "prove" that by using what we thought the set-up was and the way he was hesitating with his D1 votes, I'd have bet money that he was Knife Mafia Goon on the flip. :oops: Apologies, David.

Rob, another blown call. I'd have also bet money that no one could innocently have chosen to investigate Amrun on the night he died. That Dead Inno-Live Scum-Dead Inno combo was just screaming at me to push the lynch on you.

Javert, makes me glad I listen to my internal "town" gut reads as well as disregarding most of my gut "scum" reads. He is the second player recently I really didn't want to lynch despite the evidence strongly suggesting he should be. It's hard to seriously push a lynch on someone who looks more townie than Andy Griffith. Even if the events say you should. I just hope the trend holds because I'm 2 for 2 right now on that one.

Same with Magnus. ConSpiracy did have a decent point. On the face of it, it
DID
look as if this game violated the rules, at least in a small way. It was a minor leap of faith (in my mind) to disregard all of that because everything in the game pointed to Magnus=Town.

Mute, thanks for the complement. The only credit I'll take for being part of that "team" is not pushing Javert's lynch though. It's amazing how well the PR who gives the result can also diffuse it somewhat especially when another player has already posted (I quote magnus here)
"Javert's not scum. Please don't vote him."


ConSpiracy, Jerbs, Mute, Amrun, Edgerobin and ICENinja; I look forward to playing with you all again at some point. Actually, that goes for everyone in this game and that includes:

jimfinn, I found this game one the best I've played since coming to MS. Thank You. I haven't played so much mafia that dual scum games are that commonplace to me. This is probably only the 3rd or 4th I've ever played.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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Post Post #615 (isolation #78) » Wed Feb 23, 2011 3:47 pm

Post by Oso »

Add on post.

Forgot to add: Good job folks. :D Luck, skill, karma or the planets aligning properly...whatever the reason: Town owned this game.
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Post Post #621 (isolation #79) » Thu Feb 24, 2011 6:04 am

Post by Oso »

Probably my least favorite Town Role is a blocking role. Normal RBs and I don't even want to talk about Jail-Keepers :igmeou: but I liked this one.

Perhaps with the exception of blocking Javert N2, I never intentionally used this role to stop scum. With a Normal RB you always have the question of "Did I stop a kill? Or was there a Doc save of some sort" on a no-kill night and if there is a kill, there is always the doubt that you did indeed target scum, just not the scum that made the kill. JK is even worse, in my opinion, because it adds a "Did I save the target or block the killer" dilemma on a no-kill night with the same questions an RB has on a night that a kill is successful.

This role had didn't have the early ability to definitively locate scum (even though it did end up doing that) but it did have the ability to universally clear a player from N1. We had two groups but it applies even in a 1 group game. 2 Kills in this game=Block target is innocent.

I'd be happy to play this RB role again sometime in the future.
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Post Post #624 (isolation #80) » Thu Feb 24, 2011 11:14 am

Post by Oso »

And the dead thread please :P
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Post Post #626 (isolation #81) » Thu Feb 24, 2011 11:46 am

Post by Oso »

I was doing some what-ifs with this game starting from what did happen from Night 1.

I think N2, even if Prox hadn't flaked, we would have had a good chance of still having a no-kill night.

Knife Mafia had their kill on HP go through so even if they suspected there might be a Doctor, after I claimed, I think they still would have probably tried to hit me. So that would have been the same as Night 1, both groups trying to kill the same person. The main difference there being that this time magnus would have prevented both groups while I did nothing really useful at all except make it look like a townie was part of the mafia (which almost happened anyway).

Night 3 might have been quite a bit different though. With Prox active, I would have expected to see two different night kills that night. Both groups would have known their kill was prevented and there was likely a Doc about and probably that Javert was a member of the opposite group. Jerbs went Doc hunting and perhaps (had he been active) Prox might have too but I suspect that if Prox had still been active, you might have seen me or Javert as the second NK on N3. I'd have guessed me. I discount Rob getting killed that night as one mafia (gun) would have known there was a Doc out there and perhaps Knife Mafia would have too. Had Prox still been participating (I had him pegged as just not posting, I didn't realized he had flaked) I probably wouldn't have chosen him as a target. I would probably have chosen Jerbs and perhaps sussed him out and prevented the Amrun kill. Jerbs and Prox were the only two I considered blocking N3 in any case.

Goes back to what Javert said about swinginess. Say what you want about balance but no one, I suspect, takes into account a whole team getting wiped out because of killing/flaking that early into a game. And that is what this was. Had Prox stayed around I suspect the game would still be ongoing with town minus their RB and Cop at this point with a mis-lynch on Javert warming up in the bullpen.

So I think jimfinn and Javert are both right. Town got some
EXTREMELY
good breaks right off the bat and with prox flaking and missing 2 nightkills, town was able to keep that early lead and ride it to the win.

It wouldn't have taken a whole lot for the tables to have been turned and the entire town end up dead with 2-3 scum still remaining to duke it out.
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Post Post #628 (isolation #82) » Thu Feb 24, 2011 1:35 pm

Post by Oso »

In hindsight, that post does seems pretty damning.

I remember thinking when I read it though, "Now there is someone who is trying to actually figure out what is going on." I pretty much auto-assigned a town motivation to it I think and never thought back on it again.

Bad idea I guess. I don't think I have ever run across scum so openly speculating on roles though except to show what claimed role
ISN'T
possible. But town do that just as often.

As scum, I usually keep what roles I think are in the game to the QT so as to kill them before reveal if possible. That post of Jerbs actually bumped him above the town/scum line a point or two in my mind.
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Post Post #634 (isolation #83) » Fri Feb 25, 2011 5:05 am

Post by Oso »

I guess I'll throw in a bit with Edger there as regards ICENinja.

My Role was worded so that it made me think there might be multiple groups. Initially, I thought 1-Scum group, 1-Mason Group with a power was just as likely as 2 Mafia groups. 2 Mafia was in my thinking but thinking back, had ICE not said what he did in his last posts, I wouldn't have claimed Day 2, I'd have waited until it was obvious there were two mafia groups.

The tipping factor there was not that I thought Edger was outright guilty but rather my blocking him had a better than average possibility of having stopped a kill. Without ICE's pseudo-confirmation of a second Mafia, I'd have likely kept my role and N1 block target to myself until farther down the road as I was still thinking a Town Mason Group had as much of a chance of being a "second" group as it did being a second Mafia. If there was indeed 2 groups.

I've seen games with a Godfather/No-Cop and the like as red herrings to the player who gets them. I was considering the possibility also that jimfinn had done something similar with this role.
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Post Post #640 (isolation #84) » Fri Feb 25, 2011 6:19 am

Post by Oso »

@ICE, I want to clarify as well.

I don't think you broke the rules at all.

I was agreeing with the Edger on the ultimate results. It caused me to claim earlier in the game than I normally would.

But you didn't break any rules and I apologize if I gave the impression that I thought you did.
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Post Post #642 (isolation #85) » Fri Feb 25, 2011 6:56 pm

Post by Oso »

Javert that was, I think. Prox was completely off my radar except that I was hoping to clear either him or Jerbs using this role by blocking one of the two lurkers and seeing a 2 kill night.

My personal opinion is that 90% of the people that lurk that hard, are generally disinterested town. I was wrong in both cases here but I wanted to "clear" at least one of them before the inevitable lurker hunt started. I was wrong on that too :? This game never reached that stage really and Prox was lynched on things unrelated to my block of him.

Which just shows me how ironic playing Mafia can be. I block someone(s) I want to clear and target 2 scum but the second scum isn't scum because I blocked him, he's scum because he flaked and we had missing night-kills.

And the irony of that is if he hadn't stopped, I would never had the chance to "not target" him because I was intentionally blocking one of the two low posters and he would have been out of that category or I would have probably been dead before I ever got to that point.
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-
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