Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[Yosarian2]

I just came in here to confirm, and...wtf?

Fires...you do realize that not posting within the first day of the game being open dosn't mean I'm an inactive lurker, right? And the rest of your post is pretty funny; if there's 3 people on a random wagon, they must all be scum, or else they're all town? And you promise you're town, huh?

Ok, I'm not voting this newb, he's too entertaining.

Vote:Brokenscraps

[Yosarian2]

unvote

Vote: Ender241

Voted finalfires for a fairly weak reason. Unvoted him right afterwards, for a bad reason. Admitted that his reason for unvoting was bad, but didn't put the vote back on, until questioned about it. When questioned about it, gave in to pressure and put the vote back on.

All in all, this looks scummy to me.

[Yosarian2]

That bought out the scummy behaviour , my vote on Yos stands.

Care to explain this, whisky?

[Yosarian2]

I brought out alot of the newbie behaviour (post61) that ender was doing , which 2 of you have agreed he was making, but ended the post saying im sure hes just a newbie but most probaly town. Yos jumped on the points i made trying, i believe, to start a BW .

My analysis of ender's behavior, and my vote for him, had nothing to do with your post at all. I don't agree that ender's behavior is just "newbie behavior"; Fire's stuff just looks like newbie behavior to me, but Ender looks actaully scummy, in that he was willing to have his vote be determined by pressure from others; he seems more concerned about his appearence then about finding scum with his vote, which is scummy.

[Yosarian2]

I totally agree with you saying Ender is more bothered with his apperence, but i see that more of a newbie act than scum. I suspose we will eventually find out whos right.

(shrug) It can be both. In this case, it's the kind of tell that newbie scum are especially likely to make, because they haven't yet learned to better hide their scum thought process.

[Yosarian2]

Final fires seems to be a lot more pro-town now. I really like his post #130, and agree with him about both ender being suspicious and about whiskey being suspicious.

I'm kind of confused about the darla wagon here; she hasn't really done anything yet that looks suspicious to me. Can someone who's on the wagon explain why you're voting for her again?

[Yosarian2]

So, the wagon on Darla is based on her being cautious about early votes, fosing without voting, and going back and forth? Interesting. I see what the two of you (DLG and Bub) mean; I'm not confident that being cautious and doubting your own reads in this early stage is a strong tell, but I like the way you guys are thinking.

[Yosarian2]

Because i don't have a reason to vote Darla, i'm just saying if it comes to it i won't mind if it's a sacrifice needed to be took.

I'd trust this self-sacrificing attitude more if I understood where you were coming from. Why is it you wouldn't mind if we felt we had to lynch you? If you are town, then you should mind being lynched, unless I'm missing something. And what does that have to do with Darla, exactly?

[Yosarian2]

Man, bob just keeps looking worse and worse. "Please try to lynch me, I'll flip town", ugh. Also, the part where he first called bub scum, and then tried to get bub to join him on a wagon looks dishonest at best.

[Yosarian2]

Man, bob just keeps looking worse and worse. "Please try to lynch me, I'll flip town", ugh. Also, the part where he first called bub scum, and then tried to get bub to join him on a wagon looks dishonest at best.

Bub and I are on the same wagon already. Your chronology is wrong.

Well, fair enough, but I really hate that in the same post, you FOS him, and demand that he help you lynch Darla. Just makes it look like the FOS was more an attempt to manipulate and threaten him in order to keep him voting the way you wanted, rather then an honest suspicion.

[Yosarian2]

@ Yosarian2
I see a disconnect between your current vote (ender241) and your current shift to what looks like strong suspicion against bobsnox. I realize that we each only have one vote to use. Is your current stance that ender241 is more probable scum than bobsnox?

Oh, I'm still quite suspicious of Ender. Many of my recent posts have been targeted at him.

Right now, my top 3 suspects are Ender, Whiskey, and bobsnox.

At this point in the game, if I see something odd/noteworthy, I'm going to comment and question about it. On day 1, everyone should have multiple suspects and be following up on multiple leads all the time.

For my part, I do not share in the suspicion of bobsnox. Hostility towards his current suspects and attackers is not a scum tell. Bad reasoning in regards to thinking DarlaBlueEyes is more likely scum if he is lynched and flips town is not a scum tell.

Eh. I don't have a problem with his darla vote, specifically, although I wish he'd explain it better. I mostly just don't like the way he's trying to aggressively force others to vote her; it feels more like a scum trying to force a wagon then like a town honestly trying to find scum.

[Yosarian2]

Ender is being replaced, huh?

He's still my main suspect, based on his play, so I'm going to leave my vote on him for now. I'll be interested to hear what his replacement says; hopefully we'll be able to get a firmer read on the player slot based on the replacement.

[Yosarian2]

FF

Lynch me is a request.

Do it. Stop bussing Darla, stop redefining the English language, and do it. I

want you to do it

.

Try to twist that.

Yes, it's a request. It's also an incredibly scummy thing to say, because no pro-town person should ever say "lynch me" and mean it. That would be incredibly anti-town, and in complete violation of the town win condition. The only person who should say something like that is a scum who's being manipulative.

What's not to understand? He knows I'm town and he doesn't want the autowagon to form on him tomorrow.

...what?

If you demand over and over again to be lynched, you'll probably be lynched. There wouldn't be any "autowagon" in response, either; later, if anyone says "Hey, why was bob lynched?" the response would be "Oh, Bob said we should lynch him" "Oh, ok, nevermind then." I don't see how you demanding to be lynched has anything to do with FF's alignment at all, no matter which way you flip.

[Yosarian2]

my tactic




Yosarian2's head

look at all the opportunities FF has to vote me, try to get a wagon on me, etc. and look at how he keeps trying to avoid it. Why would he do that? Because he's scum and he knows I'm town.

He was voting you for quite a while, bob.

The only odd thing about FF's play so far is that he was voting you, then when someone accused him of chainsaw defending Darla, he dropped his attack on you and signaled a willingness to vote Darla. This kind of does look bad; especially if Darla is scum, that would make FF a likely scumbuddy who doesn't want to be linked to her.

For the most part, though, FF looks more town-ish to me right now.

[Yosarian2]

So...your whole theory was that final fires was afraid to vote you, so you were demanding to be lynched in the hopes that you would show he was afraid to vote you? That doesn't really make a lot of sense to me. Weren't you worried that, like, everyone else might vote you?

Tbh, it still looks like a scum gambit to try to prove how townie you are by demonstrating how self sacrificing you are. That's also what I think about Ender's post, by the way.

[Yosarian2]

I don't really have much of a read on Darla based on her posts; I realize she's had computer problems and other issues, but I would like to hear more from her when we get the chance. Her case against bobsnox is reasonable, but I would like to hear her thoughts on other people, hopefully before the end of the day.

That being said, the wagon against her feels scum driven. I just get a bad vibe from it; the degree to which people are expressing certainty about her being scum seems completely out of proportion to the strength of the case against her, and I think that several of the scummiest players in the game are pushing that wagon in a way that I don't trust.

[Yosarian2]

Yos - has your opinion on Darla changed? You said earlier you don't have a problem with the Darla votes, but now you do? What's the main reason?

I didn't, and still don't, have a problem with DLG and Bub's votes for Darla. They explained them well, their reasons make sense, and it seems to be based on good pro-town reasoning; those posts look like honest scumhunting to me.

The way some of the other people on the wagon have been going about their attacks on Darla, especially you, Whiskey, and Ender before he was replaced, seem a lot more iffy and questionable to me. For example, your claimed oddly high degree of certainty that she's scum, based on what looks like a pretty thin day 1 case, really strike me as unbelievable.

Do you think ender and Darla could be scum together?

I'm not really sure. I'm not sure what Ender was doing with his "lynch me and then lynch Darla but I don't really have a reason to vote her so I'm not going to" posts; it really doesn't make any sense to me at all. Was he trying to get Darla lynched? Was he trying to make her look better if he got lynched? I don't really know, but it doesn't seem town to me.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian is scummy because he's also preparing for a Darla townflip via calling the Darlawagon scumdriven and targeting the same members of it as Bub. Whisky, Snox, and Ender are all appetizing/convenient scumtargets if town and they make up his scumlist.

Wait, what?

I'm saying I'm not going to vote Darla, and I don't want to lynch her today, because her wagon looks scum driven, and then i specifically listed the people who I said look like scum and are attacking Darla. I'm not "preparing for a Darla townflip"; I'm actually trying to prevent what looks to me like a probable Darla mislynch by trying to lynch one of the people I think are scum who have been pushing her wagon instead.

And I hate the last part of your post. "Whisky, Snox, and Ender are all appetizing/convienent scumtargets if town"; what the hell does that even mean? Is this the "Person X looks reeeallly scummy, therefore he's going to be easy to lynch, therefore anyone voting for him is scum looking for an easy lynch" argument you're using here? Because that's a really bad argument.

[Yosarian2]

It's also worth mentioning that, in his last post, it sounds like Llamarble already knows Darla is going to flip town.

[Yosarian2]

And so the scums reveal their growing fear by piling on... Muahahaha.

who are you calling scum here? Brokenscrapes?

[Yosarian2]

Lawl @ DLG "SOMEBODY QUICKHAMMER PLEASEPLEASEPLEASE BEFORE HE FINDS US ALL SO I CAN LYNCH YOU REAL EASY TOMORROW HEHEHE"

So, now that he's voted you, you're calling DLG scum as well? First bub is scum, then me and bub are scum together, now you're calling DLG scum because he wants you lynched.

Anyone who votes you is scum, huh?

I've produced more content in 3 days than most players in this entire game. Why do you want to lynch me again?

Honestly, nothing in the desperate flailing you've done in the past few days seems especially town to me. I'm glad you're posting, I realize you replaced into a bad position, and I know how much that sucks, but I still think you got a scum role.

I pointed out that Ender did strange stuff and stated my intention to redeem the slot by good scumhunting.

I don't think you have. Most of your attacks look like OMGUS to me. I don't see Bub as suspicious at all. I also think your "Yos and Bub are scum together and they're part of an elaborate plan to lynch Darla" theory is raving paranoia at best; it dosn't seem to be based on any actual evidence of anything in the game, it more seems like a wild theory you cobbled together based on nothing to allow you to attack the people who suspect you.

[Yosarian2]

Noone hammer Llamarble. From a skim, the last few pages are good stuff, and there is absolutely no excuse for cutting this day short. There is no urgency about this lynch, and the only reason for a hammer now is for scum to curtail discussion.

Meh. I don't like this kind of stalling. If you don't think Llamarble is scum, that's fine, but if you do, extending the day just to get "more discussion in" is useless, and is more likely to make a good bandwagon stall out and die then anything else. There's no reason that every day has to go all the way to the deadline just because we can; it's not especially helpful to the town to drag out a day once we know who we're going to lynch, and once that person's been given a chance to claim.

[Yosarian2]

Its been said before but ender made a mess of his role, he wasnt scum he was new to this.

What makes you think Ender wasn't scum?

Yes, granted, he played badly no matter what his alignment, but playing badly is hardly a town tell. He also did a number of very specific behiavors that I consider to be pretty good scumtells.

I'm not convinced by Fishy's defense of Ender/Llamarble either, his posts seem mostly due to paranoia about the people on the wagon.

By the way, Whisky, I want a very specific answer, with quotes from Ender's or Llamarble's posts that you think make him more likely to be town, and I want it soon. We don't have that much time left, and I really want to get you down on record on Ender before he flips.

[Yosarian2]

I'm really upset by the way the ender/Llamarble wagon has evaporated right before deadline for no good reason I can see. It feels like when he got in trouble, he just spammed up the thread with a bunch of garbage, and so everyone just dropped the case, even though he wasn't actually looking any more town.

I would still probably be willing to lynch MoreWhiskey, or possibly bobsnox, in order to achieve a no-lynch, but I wouldn't be happy about it at this point.

[Yosarian2]

And I do find accusations of "spamming the thread" offensive; I've been responding to accusations and looking for scum.

Don't get me wrong; post as often as you want, the more often the better.

I just don't think that the sheer quantity of posts you made while in trouble should be a reason for people to consider you town, but it feels like that's what's going on.

[Yosarian2]

@Yosarian: Can you give some examples of llarmable doing what you mentioned here:

It feels like when he got in trouble, he just spammed up the thread with a bunch of garbage,

Basically, Llamable got to 6 votes on post 308, at 6 PM January 29th; the response to this was an absolute flood of posts from him, and in the next 32 hours or so, he made 22 posts, some of them quite long. Now, again, there's nothing wrong with posting a lot; that's not a sign of alignment, either way. A lot of the content of those posts, though, was really iffy, and most of it just feels like wild flailing, mostly directed at the people attacking him. Post 7 included a vague attack at "scum piling on his wagon"; post 8 he attacks Bub; post 9 he attacks FF for voting him; post 10 he attacks DLG for voting him. Post 11 he calls whisky a buddy of Bub. Post 13 he changes his mind and calls FF town again; post 15 he calls me and Fishy buddies of Bub and defends whisky, while post 16 he calls whiskey scum again. Note this is all within a 4 hour period, and right after he gets to lynch -1.

It really does look like when his back was against the wall, Llamble's response was to just try to flood the thread with posts; the posts don't look like a coherent attempt to scumhunt at all, more like a series of wild swings in a last ditch attempt to go after or discredit anyone and everyone who was attacking him. Also some weird stuff going on here with him and whiskey, he keeps swinging back and fourth between calling whiskey scum and defending him, and this continues.

It all looks to me like a scum trying to fight his way out of a corner. I'm trying to avoid using the word "spamming", since he got offended by that and it's really not accurate (it was all game-related stuff, for one thing), but the key thing here is that posting a lot when he gets in trouble is not a town tell here at all, and it feels like people are treating it like one.

[Yosarian2]

Okay, insincere scumhunting is basically the best tell we have. All others are secondary.

Yes, it is.

For example:

Scum:
Bub
Werewolf
Yosarian

Which, other then Bub, has absolutely nothing to do with the "scumhunting" Llamarble did early.

Also, i notice that somehow on this most recent list, Whiskey has wandered back up to the town category, again with no explanation.

I'm becoming incresinly confidnent that Llamarble and Whiskey are scum together here.

[Yosarian2]

1. Quicklynch. You called for someone to hammer Llama when he was clearly producing content, and discussion was very much ongoing. I call that a quicklynch. Your stance seems to be that it isn’t possible to quicklynch someone who has produced some content, which I find ridiculous. If that’s not what you mean in post 36, please clarify.

The idea that a Llama wagon was a "quicklynch", at a point where most of us had already been wagoning that player slot for something like two weeks, when he'd had a chance to respond to everything, and when he had claimed, is kind of crazy.

In fact, if we had lynched him then, like we should have, we wouldn't have had the kind of random deadline bullshit that we did that prevented him from being lynched for no good reason and lynched Whiskey instead. That's why you don't always wait right up until the deadline; when you have a good case on someone, you give them a chance to respond, you give them a chance to claim if they want to, and then you lynch them, you don't stall for another few weeks.

Fishy's overall posting here is bizzare. He was willing to lynch Llama at deadline, after defending him for days, but is upset that DLG was willing to lynch Llama at deadline when DLG had clearly suspected Llama for most of the game? However, we can't let ourselves get sidetracked again today here.

Vote:llarmable

After we lynch him, like we should have yesterday, and he flips scum, then we'll deal with Fishy's crazy attempts to distract from the wagon again; Fishy managed to derail the Llamarble wagon yesterday with a lot of frantic handwaving, I am not willing to let him do it again today.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, Ether put it better then I ever could, in her incredibly funny satire "list of tells" post on MD a while ago, where she went through a long list of ways common scumtells are commonly misused.

Rushing the day - This is when someone tries to achieve a lynch.

https://www.mafiascum.net/archive/viewt ... ed13bce0a7

[Yosarian2]

WHAT. YOU ARE ACCUSING ME OF NOT HAVING A TOWNREAD ON WHISKEY BECAUSE I SAID I WOULD RATHER LYNCH HIM THAN MYSELF?? THAT IS RIDICULOUS.

If you say someone is "40% likely to be scum", that's not a town read; that's you saying that the person is better then a random lynch.

"X is 40% likely to be scum" is the same as saying "X is somewhat scummy" or "X is scummier then average". (Remember, a random person is something 25% likely to be scum.) You now claiming, after Whiskey is dead, that that's the same as you having a town read is iffy at best.

I do realize that in earlier posts you had claimed a town read on whiskey, but that is not what you said when push came to shove, and I dislike you trying to revise history here.

I mean, granted, after that horrible fake claim I'd expect you to change your mind. In fact, "40%" seems low after such an obvious lie; it kind of feels like you knew he was going to flip town, despite the horrible fakeclaim, but wanted to lynch him anyway.

[Yosarian2]

GO LOOK. THAT WAS AFTER HE SAID HE HAD POWER BUT BEFORE HE MADE HIS RIDICULOUS FAKECLAIM. I stated that because he claimed a PR, and scum near lynch do so a large fraction of the time, he was now substantially more likely to be scum than before. I also STATED THAT MY PRIOR READ ON HIM DID NOT SUGGEST HE WAS SCUM so I adjusted the odds he was scum down by a significant amount. I obviously didn't believe his ridiculous claim when it actually appeared. And I voted him because he was at that point the only alternative to lynching me, the only player I know to be town.

Wait...so you were MORE willing to lynch him because he claimed to be an unspecified power role? That's kind of absurd.

I though scum usually claim VT not PR. Someone (other than Llamarble) correct me if I'm wrong.

Eh. In theory, scum should probably play PR much of the time when they're in trouble, but in practice, they usually seem to claim VT.

And I find it interesting that Llamarble claimed VT (didn't he? I forget now. I'll go look).

Heh. Yeah, that's another reason to lynch him. You usually want to lynch the claimed VT's, all else being equal.

[Yosarian2]

Why's so much space being dedicated to Llamarble having a town-read on Whisky or not at the end of day 1 as if being correct on a town reads says anything?

Being correct or not dosn't necessarily say anything, although of course how he reacted to the day 1 wagon is going to be relevent to an analysis of Llamarble.

On the other hand, if Llamarble is being disingenuous about his behavior towards Whiskey, that is a problem, and that's what it looks like to me. It looks like he wanted to get credit for defending Whiskey at a point in the game when he was actually doing the opposite, and that's scummy.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos: I feel your post 533 is misreps my positions quite badly - see 554. I'd like a response to that.

I don't think I misrepped you at all.

Bolded mine. Read when DLG asked someone to hammer Llama (344). Llama was quite clearly in the course of responding to the case on him - the argument hadn't settled nearly enough for a lynch to be a good idea. He also hadn't claimed. We had a long time before deadline. It was totally premature.

...

I'm upset that he was willing to lynch Llama when
1. Llama wasn't his top suspect
2. Llama was actively responding to the case on him
3. We had some days until deadline.

He was always going to be "in the course" of responding; he can clearly do all-caps OMGUS attacks on people voting him until the end of time. I mean, just a few hours ago, we saw this:

CAN WE LYNCH MY ENTIRE WAGON PLEASE?

If we're going to wait to lynch someone until they stop responding to attacks against them, we're never going to lynch anyone.

He had pleanty of time to claim; most people won't claim unless they're at lynch -1, and LLama showed no interest in doing so before that point, so "he hadn't claimed yet" argument is silly; he wasn't going to claim without DLG's vote.

The "we had a long time before deadline" argument is silly; waiting until deadline to get off a lynch is a terrible idea, if you can get off a lynch you like before that point.

The "Llamarble was his #2 wagon" part of your post makes a little bit of sense, but looking at DLG's earlier posts, I think he was fairly clear that he would be reasonably happy seeing either whiskey or Llamarble lynched.

Honestly, all in all, I have a stronger pro-town reading on DLG then I do in almost anyone else in the game right now. I find your attacks on him silly at best; you seem to be attacking him for trying to achieve a lynch on one of his top suspects, while I find that to actually be a pretty pro-town type of action. What's more, I think your attacks on him seem designed to try to prevent DGL's main current suspect, Llamarble, from being lynched, and if Llamarble flips scum, you're looking more and more like a probable buddy.

[Yosarian2]

Whoops. Looks like Yosarianscum forgot his meta was "Lynch all Vanilla claims on site immediately" or maybe I just forgot that it was his meta and that is was more subtle than "LYNCH DAT VANILLA CLAIM NAO"

Neah, my meta was never that extreme (although I may occasionally have implied that it was in previous games in order to have a bigger impact, heh). You should lynch claimed VT's all else being equal, but it's a fairly minor point, since a "real" vanilla town claiming to pressure is such a common mistake, it's hardly a tell. It does increase the expected return of lynching them a little as well, since you don't really want to let claimed vanillas live, but again that's not a huge deal, and the question of "does the person look town or scum" is still more important.

Nah its the former. Yosarian isn't with the town this time. Oh look at that, he buddies up to a single town player, DLG. If he can read DLG as town he can read Llmarble as town, the only difference is that Yosarian wants to push Marble's mislynch and be on DLG's good side.

The difference is DLG is obvtown here, and marble is flailing scum. DLG is consistently making sense here, while marble seems consistently irrational and opportunistic in his "scumhunting".

I am curious, Fate; can you tell me what it is that makes you think that marble is town here?

[Yosarian2]

Now please, let's lynch Yosarian who has contributed an original thought to this game for some discernible (due to laziness) amount of weeks outside of "Let me twist everything Marble has said into a scum motivation, and get him lynched."

I haven't twisted anything Llama has said. His reaction to pressure was simply to flip out and to attack every single person voting for him in irrational, angry, ALL CAPS posts. None of what he's done looks like real scumhunting at all, and every time it seems like we get close to lynching him, some random guy comes out of nowhere and derails the wagon.

Anyway, I don't care if you think you have a meta on me; seems like every game I'm in that I'm town, someone attacks me absolutly convinced that they know my meta based on some random comment I made somewhere and starts spouting BS to me about what I always do; they're generally wrong, but I guess that's a side effect of me having played so many different games over the years is that everyone thinks they know my playstyle.

What I want, which you still haven't given me, is an actual explanation for why you think Llama is town, for what post or posts of his convinced you.

[Yosarian2]

VOTE: Yosarian
I've felt like he's been twisting things to make me look like scum for awhile. Specifically stating actions while ignoring the reasons for them.

The best way to tell if someone's scum or not is to look at actions. Motive can be fuzzy, actions are clear.

In any case, I haven't seen any reason to think that you have any pro-town motive for any of your OMGUS attacks at all. This one is a good example, actually; you seem to be attacking me because A) you don't like that I'm voting you, and B) now that fate attacked me, you feel like you might have a shot at getting me mislynched.

You obviously weren't convinced by Fate's arguments, because he didn't make any, he just mentioned some vauge meta but didn't explain it. Therefore, your actions here pretty clearly mark you as opportunistic, and probably oppertunistic scum.

If you actually don't think that my case against you has any merit, then why did you never respond to it yesterday? Specifically, you never even responded to my post # 463 yesterday, which was a pretty detailed analysis of how you reacted when were under presssure, how you contradicted yourself, spammed, flailed around, tried to use FAKE ANGER to deflect attacks against you, and generally acted like caught scum. I did quite a detailed analysis of your posting at that key moment, all of it valid and factually true, and your only response was to ignore it and call me scum. You now claiming that I'm "scummy" because I "twisted facts" is just complete BS; I bet you know my case against you is correct, or you wouldn't have avoided responding to it like that.

If you actually want to avoid being lynched today, I'd suggest you go back and try to understand why so many people are voting you and try to convince us that we're wrong, instead of just lashing out and deflecting.

[Yosarian2]

Now I could sit here and explain to scum why town is town, BUT there's been PLENTY of discussion on why Marble is town (even some posts from Nikanor aka my slot with good reasoning), I'm not gonna rehash old points.

Give me one. Quote Nik's post that convinced you if you can't invent your own reason. Just give me something to work with here.

Llama is on the verge of being lynched, and has been all game, because he's consistently looked scummy as hell, but every time he gets close, someone comes out of nowhere with some bullshit reason why we shouldn't lynch him.

You need to explain to me why you think Llama is town, and you need to do it now, before we lynch him. None of this vague abstract BS where you try to blame your opinions on other people; i want details. Give me a rational argument now, and I'll be more likely to consider the possibility that you might just misguided town when Llama flips scum.

[Yosarian2]

His 16th post is strange. He basically says "DLG and Bub have good reasons for voting Darla and you [bobsnox] don't." But in saying that, he implies that he still doesn't find the case against her convincing.

Well, yes. I explained this.

There's a difference between a "case you agree with" and a "case that you can imagine a pro-town person might make". DLG and Bub seemed to be doing pro-town scumhunting; I think they're both town. I didn't agree with their conclusions, but that's completly different.

Your play at the time, on the other hand, seemed really scummy. I explained why in some detail. I actually like your later day-1 play a lot more, though, and you've since moved way down on my suspect list.

For the most part, the reason I didn't comment much on Darla on day 1 was that I really didn't agree with the case on her at all (I still think it was pretty terrible), but I'm generally unwilling to defend a lurker when they should be defending themselves. She should come in here and defend herself; we clearly need to hear more from her, especally if she's feeling better now.

While she was sick and such, i was willing to cut her some slack, but if she doesn't get in here and start posting some content soon, I'd be willing to put a vote on her.

I wish someone could tell me why we're breaking apart the wagon on the increasingly obvious scum llama here, though. This town is so bloody ADD, it's frustrating.

[Yosarian2]

"Post 7 included a vague attack at scum piling" on my wagon as an aside at the sudden increase in my wagon's size after I started making my case against Bidderskins (and specifically the fact that Bidderskins himself joined). The bulk and main purpose of that post was an explanation of my reads on Darla.

Post 8 I attacked Bub. Yes.

Post 9 I found a recent post of FF's to be weird because he appeared to be dropping alignment knowledge and lining up lynches, so I reread him. Post 13 is the result of that reread, namely that I still found FF to be town.

Post 10 I attack DLG for voting me because he claimed to believe whisky was lying, which should have given whisky way higher lynch priority from townDLG's perspective.

Post 11 I do say Whiskey also looks scummy for bandwagoning and lack of scumhunting.

Post 15 I say I don't think the whisky contradiction-business was actually him lying but rather him being sarcastic but say I still believe whisky is scummy for the reasons I mentioned in 11. I defended the contradiction business because I believed it was simply sarcasm and that the town should be aware of this since several players were basing reads off of it. At that point I thought Fishy was scummy because the way he pointed out Bub attacking the people on his wagon made me feel like he was defending Bub in advance and trying to tell him to be less scummy. And Yos has been on my scumlist since my 5th post.

Post 16 I do include whisky in my scumlist. In agreement with 11 and 15. So the accusation of flipflopping there is simply inaccurate.

Presenting all the things I did without the accompanying reasons makes it sound like I am swinging around wildly. I did indeed analyze a lot of players and discuss a lot of things in a short period of time. Responding to the reasons people are going after me and analyzing players is not the same thing as "attacking anyone who attacks me." My primary scumread, Bub, joined my wagon after I voted him. For some reason Yosarian declares me scum trying to fight out of a corner instead of town doing so. I believe this is because he wanted to mislynch me.

I think you were swinging around wildly. Most of the explinations for those swings were weak at best, llama. Your comment that FF was "lining up lynches" was absurd. So was your theory that I was working with Bub to try to mislynch Darla, or whatever it was. Your attack on the DLG was weird and creepy, and you can give whatever justifiaction about who he "should" have been attacking you want; it seems pretty clear that you just didn't like that he was voting for you. Your attack on me pretty clearly has similar motivations, as do pretty much all of your attacks.

In a very brief period of time there, in sequensial order, in a seires of fairly contradictory posts, you go person by person and attack basically everyone on your bandwagon, in fairly irrational ways. You do this right after you get to lynch -1. Don't try and tell me there's no connection between those two facts. Meanwhile, you've done basically no scumhunting that wasn't "OMG, this person is attacking me so I'm going to vote him" stuff. I don't think you've been trying to find scum, I think you've been trying to go after people on your wagon to discredit them and to try to get the wagon off you and onto one of them; I think you've been much more worried about self-preservation then about anything else. And, frustratingly, it seems like that scumtactic is working for you here.

[Yosarian2]

This "he claimed VT at that point because if he had claimed PR it would've been countered" shit is just that.
1. A VT claim USUALLY results in a lynch, the fact that it didn't was a miracle of towniness from several people. THUS scum claim PR to either
-Live as a PR fakeclaim for ahwile
-Out a PR.

(shrug) In my experence, scum claim VT fairly often, probably more often then they should.

Also, I never have and never will consider a VT claim to be a town tell. No VT should ever claim in any case, and there's no way in hell I'm going to encourage that garbage. Pretty much any situation where town bandwagons someone to a claim, if they claim VT, you should lynch them; bandwagoning people to a claim and then unvoting anyone who claims VT is horrible town play, it just outs all the power roles without giving the town any information.

My best bet, based on the timing of his claim, is that he just couldn't come up with a good fake claim that'd be believed and wouldn't be counterclaimed. Considering the fairly narrow range of roles allowed in normal games these days, that's not really surprising.

[Yosarian2]

I think you've been much more worried about self-preservation then about anything else.

I don't think Whiskey is scum either, though I'm in the middle of a post on that.
Let's lynch BB.

I try hard not to get lynched as all roles and all alignments.
Not getting lynched is playing toward your wincon unless you're a jester.
Also VT happens to be my favorite normal role.

^This is not scum worried abotu self-preservation. He calls the counter wagon, that

we know was on town

, "not a good choice" and call Whisky TOWN, when he could've easily had a "scum" read on him to justify Whisky's wagon.

NEXT.

Ok, that's a reasonable point. Thank you for actually starting to play mafia, instead of just making random declearations and assuming everyone would just do whatever you say.

Anyway, I'd feel better about it if it wasn't for the fact that it seemed like he was willing to defend Whiskey (and keep Whiskey on his side) until the point when Whiskey claimed power claim; I think Llamascum was willing to let a VT Whiskey live, but wanted a power role Whiskey to die.

[Yosarian2]

I made a post directrly countering one of your quotes, and you ignored it.

Um, or you could wait until I finish typing before you attack me for "ignoring your post", lol.

[Yosarian2]

UH OH YOSARIAN CANT TWIST FATES POINTS BECAUSE FATE ACTUALLY KNOWS HOW TO PLAY MAFIA?

UH OH WHATS YOSSCUM GONNA DO NOW???

BUS DARLA?

STALL AND LURK?


*POPCORN*

Hah. You're actually town, aren't you? I was wondering for a while there, but I don't think you could fake this as scum, and I really don't think you'd be crazy enough to try to pull this off as a partner of Llama.

You're going to feel pretty dumb when you find out you were defending scum all day, though.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, I'd feel better about it if it wasn't for the fact that it seemed like he was willing to defend Whiskey (and keep Whiskey on his side) until the point when Whiskey claimed power claim; I think Llamascum was willing to let a VT Whiskey live, but wanted a power role Whiskey to die.

This is hilariously bad.

There's no way you're town tunneled this deep.

I don't believe that any pro-town person would actually think "Huh, the guy I've been defending all day claimed power role? Ok, now I want to lynch him." That is so completely counter-intuitive to how pro-town people actually think.

I mean, after Whiskey did his hilariously bad fake-claim, sure. But before that, when he just claimed generic town power? I have trouble believing it.

[Yosarian2]

Oh ok, "I dont haz a read on fate"

You had NO READ on me after my giant mass of a stream of thought catchup post?

At first, i thought you looked town-ish. Then you suddenly started defending an obvscum for no good reason, in a way that was disturbingly reminiscent of how Fishy derailed the wagon earlier, and I was starting to wonder if you were on the Llama-Fishy team.

BTW I COULD TOTALLY FAKE THAT AS SCUM.

Neah. You wouldn't commit yourself this deeply to a defense if you were Llama's scum buddy. If you had just kept being vague and spouting meaningless platitudes, though, you'd move up my suspect list pretty fast, especally if both LLama and Fishy flip scum.

[Yosarian2]

I don't believe that any town person would still be voting Marble right now.

(shrug) Well, you're obviously wrong.

Move your vote asap if you want me off your ass.

Screw that. He is going to die, and he is going to die today. If he flips town, you can bloody well try to lynch me tomorrow about it. But I really don't think he's going to flip town.

[Yosarian2]

I find it unconvincing that Yos simply labels all who argue with his view on Llama as scum. That seems far too simplistic - it's just totally unrealistic that there is a Llama/Fishy/Fate scumteam whose strategy is to spout bullshit whenever Llama gets close to a lynch, and I struggle to believe Yos thought there was.

...um, did you miss the part where I decided that Fate is probably town? I never actually argued that there was a "Llama/Fishy/Fate scumteam" at all. What I have been trying to do is to figure out who likely has a connection to the scum that I believe I've caught, which is of course what any pro-town person should be doing here.

And it looks like I have. Fate looks like he's probably misguided town, but you look like scum.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, so I wasn't reading hard enough here, and missed the fact that this was hypothetical. Still, this says that at some stage you found Llama/Fishy/Fate likely - which I really doubt.

Eh. Anyone who defends scum is an automatic suspect; defending scum is pretty much the best scumtell there is, period. Also, it does seem clear here based on voting patterns and the way that wagons against him keep being deflected that if Llama is scum, which seems the most likely scenerio here, that his buddies are trying damn hard to keep him alive.

Looking for connections to the scum you think you've caught is ok - although there's no real reason to do it today.

Just the opposite. The best time to put you on the spot about your defense of Llama is now, while Llama is still alive, and while if you were his scumbuddy, you wouldn't be able to retreat or go back on yourself without abandoning your buddy.

It wouldn't make any sense to

lynch

person A as a possible buddy of person B without finding out B's alignment first, of course. But you should start probing for person A's buddies while person A is still alive; it puts the buddies in a much more difficult position.

But I think the connections you were drawing here are odd ones - I can't see you actually thinking "if Llama and Fishy flip scum, Fate is a likely buddy".

Again, I never actually made that accusation at all. I did think it was worth the effort to put some time into questioning Fate to try to get a read on him and see if he'd be a plausible buddy of Llama and/or you, and I'm glad that I did, I think I got a lot of information out of that.

But let's talk about you for a minute. Literally all you have done today is basically run a series of chainsaw defenses for Llama. First you attack DLG because you don't like his Llama vote yesterday. Then you go over to voting for Bub because you don't like hs Llama vote. And now that I've been taking the lead on the Llama wagon today, you are voting me. I already explained why I think your DLG attack is absurd, and probably scummy; nothing you've done since then looks any better.

Frankly, it's not just a matter of your links with Llama anymore; your contradicitions and your odd priorities are making me think that you're suspicious here independently.

[Yosarian2]

arg sorry guys, been really busy this week. I'll have a post up by this evening.

Please do. If this turns into one of those "I'll post later, I swear" posts where "later" turns into "never", I'm not going to be happy.

[Yosarian2]

And saying (as Yos did) that I didn't have time to make up a fakeclaim is absurd.

I never said anything of the sort. You're pretty much juts making stuff up at this point.

All that requires is picking one of tracker/doctor/vig/jailkeeper/roleblocker/cop/JOAT/1shotvig/watcher/bulletproof or any other reasonable choice (hardly a cointoss) out of a hat and boom, you live at least an extra day in most towns.

Out of those 10, most really conformable, and therefore horrible fake claims. Scum really can't just fake-claim vig or one-shot vig, for any number of reasons (the biggest one being that the real vig will probably just shoot him, plus of course you can't usually fake an extra nightkill). If you claim bulletproof or whatever, then again, logical option is for a vig to test your claim by shooting you. Jailkeeper and roleblocker are often testable, either through claimed night actions not matching other people's choices, or a vig saying "Ok, I'm going to shoot you. Prove you can roleblock me." (Plus if someone claims roleblocker, then people in the current meta are likely to assume they're a scum roleblocker anyway). JOAT is generally confirmable, depending on exactly what abilities are claimed.

The ones that aren't 100% confirmable (basically just doc and the info roles) are pretty major and pretty common power roles, all of which are very likely to be counterclaimed. (Even if it's not directly counterclaimed; if there is a cop and a tracker in the setup, and you claim watcher, people are going to figure out you're BSing.) Plus, even if it's not counterclaimed, keeping up a fake cop claim or whatever as scum for the long run without giving your buddies away is pretty damn challanging.

None of those roles really makes a great scum fake-claim; all of them are risky. You might get another day, but it's risky, and if you think you can argue your way out of it without BSing your way through a fake claim that will probably get you caught eventually, it's a good idea.

This is exactly why it's damn dangerous for a scum to try to fake-claim a power role in normals these days, and why so many scum claim VT instead.

The fact that you seem to think that "scum never claim VT", and are actually trying to use that as a defense, further undermines the argument by adding in a ton of WIFOM; if you think claiming VT is a good defense, then why wouldn't you claim VT is scum?

[Yosarian2]

This is what I'm referring to. I think it's ridiculous to believe I couldn't come up with a proper fakeclaim.
A. Most of the methods of confirming you described involve letting the claimant live extra days, which significantly increases the scums' odds of winning unless a buddy gets lynched instead. Since Whisky was town you can rule that out.
B. You can say you got roleblocked, since roleblockers are a very common scum PR.
C. If somebody does counterclaim, you've outed a PR, which is better than nothing.

Sure. Faking a role claim > getting lynched right away.

But if you can claim vanilla and not get lynched, like you did, then that puts you in a much better position then faking a role claim that'll get you caught eventually. As scum, stalling your lynch from day 1 until day 2 is a pretty marginal improvement; giving yourself a shot at getting through until endgame by claiming vanilla is a better move for you to do as scum, if you think can pull it off. And you did.

I don't know where this recent idea that a VT claim is a town tell is coming from; I've heard it from a number of newbs recently, and I think it's blatantly absurd. A VT claim is either a null tell or a mild scum tell, depending on the circumstances. The idea that it's a town tell, and should be rewarded and encouraged as such, is both wrong and a horribly anti-town idea, and that idea needs to be killed with fire before it spreads. In an ideal work with proper play, pro-town people should never claim VT at all.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian is basing literally ALL HIS READS off "Marbe is SCUM YOZ"

Now, he's either a shitty town player (no)

Or a scumbag trying to use his fabricated case to chain other fabricated cases, aka "I wouldnt be able to make a real case against fishy's play by itself, so I'll just tie him to my MArble case by saying hes defending his buddy. hehehehhee

Not at all.

My town read on you, on DLG, and on Bub dosn't have anything to do with marble. I thought DLG and Bub were likely town even before they voted for marble, remember.

My read on Fishy is partly based on a possible connection to Marble, but, even without that, I think Fishy is acting, well, fishy. Even in the (very unlikely) hypo-Llama-town scenerio, the most likely explanation of Fishy's behavior so far would still be Fishy-scum.

That being said, yes, I've stayed focused on Marble. He's my strongest suspect right now by a large margin, so I'm going to keep focused on him until someone (ideally marble) convinces me Marble might be town, until someone else manages to look even more scummy then Marble does (which would be quite an accomplishment at this point), or until he's dead.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos: give me one action I've made that has scum motivation if Llama is town.

Trying to set up future mislynches if Llama flips town is the most obvious one that comes to mind. I don't really want to go too far down this road, since I don't think Llama is town, but he people you've been attacking, especially DLG, seem pretty obvtown no matter what Llama's alignment is, and if you were town I'd expect you to see that. The fact that you don't is odd.

I think you know Llama is town, and after Fate dies tonight you want to go after me.

"After Fate dies tonight?" Why, are you planning on killing him? That seems an oddly certain statemnt about what is going to come tonight; I think Fate is town, but I'd be very suprised if he were to be killed tonight.

Well, if you're going to reposition from Llama/Fishy to Fishy before your mislynch has even flipped, you're damn well going to back it up with some manufactured evidence.

Lol. "Manufactured evidence"?

You've been really odd, fishy. None of your suspicions, none of your behavior so far this game, really makes sense to me. The flip you made on whiskey after defending him all day, in a situation where we could have lynched Llama instead, your willingness to suddenly jump on my wagon, your vote for Bub; I don't understand any of it. Frankly, I'm having trouble seeing any pro-town person would stick their neck out so far for Llama here, considering Llama's behavior in general.

Chainsaw defence is exactly what I've been doing. I see a wagon with awful votes. I attack those votes.

That's not what chainsaw defense is. Chainsaw defense isn't attacking "awful votes", it's attacking people who are voting for person A just in order to protect person A, generally in order to keep a scumbuddy alive. And I don't think you have been attacking "aweful votes"; you haven't really seemed to even care WHO on the Llama wagon you attack at all, just so long as you're undermining the wagon.

If you actually thought "The reasons X gave for attacking Llama look scummy, and I think person X is scummy in general, so I'm going to attack person X", that would be fine. That's not what you've been doing. Instead, you've been doing wild scattershot attacks on whoever happens to be the biggest threat to Llama at any point in time.

Your switch to Bub is especially bizzare; you spent a lot of time trying to make a case against DLG, you get some heat for it, so suddenly you switch to Bub for little reason, even though you hadn't really said much about him before that point.

[Yosarian2]

- That my vote for Bub was totally unmotivated. It's all there for anyone who actually read me; when I first attacked the wagon on Llama, DLG and BB were the people I found worst, and about equally so. DLG argued with me a lot, whereas BB didn't respond. When I took a step back, BB's reaction was way scummier.

Sure, you had said you suspected them both. The thing that looks suspicious is that after focusing on DLG for much of day 1 and then the start of day 2, you suddenly changed to BB, and from the timing it looks like you did it because you were being attacked for going after DLG. The reason you gave for the change ("DLG answered my questions and BB didn't") seems pretty thin, since the main reason you were going after DLG was that you didn't like the way he answered your questions. I think it's more likely that you changed tack because you realized it would be hard to mislynch DLG, and because you realized that continuing to try might get you lynched.

- That setting up future mislynches is a plausible reason to be defending Llama. Is hypoFishyscum really in a better position than when I started going at the people on the Llama wagon yesterday? More to the point, was he ever going to be?

In the unlikely case that Llama flips town, then yes, you would be in a better place to go after the people you are attacking for voting Llama, and obviously so. You asked what your scum motivation would be for your actions if Llama is town, and it's obvious; if Llama is town, and you position yourself before his lynch as a defender of him and as someone who is attacking certain pro-town people voting for Llama, that both gives you credibility later and makes it easier to lynch them.

Do I think that's what's happining? No, because no one, not even Fate, has given me a plausable expination yet for Llama's actions so far this game that makes sense for him if as town. But, yes, you are independenlty somewhat scummy.

- That it's more likely I plan to NK Fate (think how

idiotic

that would be), and let that slip, than that I believe the Fate is going to be killed - which is 100% obvious from what I believe about the game.

I can't imagine Fate is going to be killed. Assuming Fate is town, which he probably is, I'm sure the scum are going to leave him alive, because he's obviously going to keep tunneling me for no good reason for the all game here, and it's a huge distraction to the town. At the very least, they're going to leave him alive for 3 or 4 days until they manage to use him to get a Yos mislynch through, and then they'll probably try to lynch him for it.

- Just generally, that it's unlikely I'm simply convinced town - particularly if Llama is town.

I do think it's unlikely you're simply convinced town, although obviously that becomes someone more probable if Llama flips town. Even if Llama is town, though, I still don't see town-Fishy completly giving up on real scumhunting for two days just in order to attack a series of fairly obvtown people because they suspect Llama.

- Saving your own skin at deadline is a scumtell.

I never said that at all. Trying to save your own skin is obviously a null tell. On the other hand, pro-town people shouldn't use their vote as a club to try to save their own skin; they should defend themselves to the best of their ability, but they should also keep scumhunting and keep trying to find scum with their vote. Only scum should OMGUS and try to use their vote as a tool to get people off their wagon.

Doesn't mean that town never do that, of course, but they shouldn't, and that makes it a moderately effective scumtell.

By the way, from Yos's last post:
- "The flip you made on whiskey after defending him all day, in a situation where we could have lynched Llama instead," - what does this mean?

When you voted Whiskey, two days before deadline, you had a choice. You could either have lynched Whiskey, who you were SURE was town and had been defending all day, or you still could have gotten a Llama lynch through. Either lynch was still probable at that point. Sure, it was close to deadline, but I don't get why you made that choice.

@Yos: a lot has been said about Llama, and a lot responded to. I think it would be helpful if you could get in one place all the reasons you find him scummy. Reading you, it's fairly unclear to me what is just you arguing with Llama and what you actually find scummy.

Ok, that's probably a good idea. This probably deserves it's own post, so I'll start putting together a detailed case against Ender/Llama now.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, per Fishy's request, I'm going to try to do a summery of some of the main points in the case against Ender and Llama in one post. Note that this is going to be a loooonng post, they've both acted scummy pretty much constantly, and because I'm going to try to get as specific as I can since Jahoodo mentioned that he thought I was talking too much in generalities.

Ender:

-Ender started out scummy early. First, when FF implied he was a town power role (remember, he was the doctor), Ender jumped on his wagon really early, and then jumped right back off as soon as he realized this would make him look bad.

-When people asked him about this, and started to get suspicous of him for his odd vote/unvote on Fires, his response was the scummy:

VOTE: Finalfires

Happy now?

His whole behavior on the early Fires wagon really looks like scum who wanted to lynch a town power role, but also was very worried about how he looked, and was very willing to give in to pressure in general.

His next few posts were equally odd. First, Ender defends Darla, attacking Whiskey for voting for her. Then a few posts later, he says:

I think if everyone thinks Darla is scum that it would be a wise choice to kill her, if i have to be killed for a scum to be taken out then i am willing for that to happen.

which is just a bizzare post. He keeps trying to do this self sacrificing theme "Oh, it's ok, if I have to die in order to lynch Darla, that's ok", and it dosn't make sense; he's not even voting Darla at this point, he had just been defending her, and in his next post he says he "dosn't have a reason to vote Darla.". All I can think about this melodrama is that it's an act by a scum to try to look more town, it doesn't make sense otherwise.

He then goes quiet for a few days, and when he comes back, he says:

Sorry for not posting for a while guys.

At the moment i think it's bobsnox.

and then, half an hour later:

Unless i have to vote him i won't though, i'd prefer VOTE: Finalfires.

And then he never posts again, and is replaced.

All of Ender's posts really look like newb scum to me. He wants to lynch a town power role, but doesn't want to get in trouble for doing it; he's really inconsistent and illogical in his posts, and he mostly seems to want to try and look town.

(It's worth mentioning that at this point of the game, Fishy, you briefly voted for Ender yourself.)

Anyway, Llama replaces in here. Llama is obviously more skilled then Ender, and he certanly plays better, but I think he's also playing like scum here.

Llama:

When he replaced in, he was already in trouble, due to Ender's scummy behavior. He tries quite hard, and quite effectivly, to shake off the wagon on him, but he uses what I consider to be scummy means to do so.

I explained this before, but right after he got to 6 votes against him, he suddenly goes into flailing overdrive. He goes through, and in a series of fairly contradictory posts, attacks pretty much everyone who was voting for him. Rather then repeat myself, let me just repeat my earlier analysis of this series of posts here:

Basically, Llamable got to 6 votes on post 308, at 6 PM January 29th; the response to this was an absolute flood of posts from him, and in the next 32 hours or so, he made 22 posts, some of them quite long. Now, again, there's nothing wrong with posting a lot; that's not a sign of alignment, either way. A lot of the content of those posts, though, was really iffy, and most of it just feels like wild flailing, mostly directed at the people attacking him. Post 7 included a vague attack at "scum piling on his wagon"; post 8 he attacks Bub; post 9 he attacks FF for voting him; post 10 he attacks DLG for voting him. Post 11 he calls whisky a buddy of Bub. Post 13 he changes his mind and calls FF town again; post 15 he calls me and Fishy buddies of Bub and defends whisky, while post 16 he calls whiskey scum again. Note this is all within a 4 hour period, and right after he gets to lynch -1.

This doesn't look like a town person trying to find scum, or a town person trying to put together a defense. It looks like a scum with his back to the wall, trying desperately to find some kind of a handhold with which to launch a counterattack against the townies who have him close to a lynch.

He also keeps going back and fourth with this odd "I don't know if whiskey is contradiction lying, but if you think he is, then you MUST NOT VOTE ANYONE BUT HIM" thing with DLG. It looks like he was trying to keep DLG voting for whiskey (instead of him) but at the same time wanted to set himself up as a defender of whiskey. In reality, I don't agree with that at all; if you catch someone lying about they're role, they're pretty much an auto-lynch, but while contradicting yourself can be scummy, it's not anywhere near in the same category. And again, in that few days, he swings back and forth of whisky a bunch of times; sometimes attacking him, sometimes defending him, sometimes doing both at once. For example:

I think he was trying to both get whiskey lynched and set it up so he could claim to be a defender of whiskey the next day. Llama denied this later, and Fate is using Llama's so called "defense" of whiskey as the major point in his defense, so let's look at what Llama actually said about Whiskey in some detail here.

Whiskey looks scummy, but we'll see how things appear once I'm fully caught up. Also I have no idea who I'm voting.

Unvote

Calls Whiskey scummy.

Vote: Bub Bidderskins
He is tunneling/voteparked on DBE but doesn't like the other members of the wagon on her.

He has lined up Bobsnox or Whiskey lynches for D2 in the event of a Darlatownflip.
I'm not really impressed by his case on DBE.
Yosarian is also kind of scummy looking.

Then again Whisky is also pretty bad.

Calls Whiskey a mislynch, but then IN THE SAME POST says he looks "bad".

@DLG: WHY WOULD YOU BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THE LYNCH OF ANY OTHER PLAYER THAN ONE YOU CAUGHT LYING?

Demands DLG keeps voting Whiskey.

Huh, I still don't see where Morewhisky is contradiction-lying (please make this clear somebody who thinks he is).
But he has done absolutely pitiful scumhunting, and is bandwagoning like a champ. So he's a likely Bidderbuddy.
That would make sense with Bidderscum's play; Lynch town today, FOS a buddy and a townie for tomorrow.

Disagrees with Bub's case on Whiskey, but then calls whiskey scum for other reasons. Ends up calling Whiskey scum with Bub.

My reads are getting settled in at this point, so I'll summarize with a list:
Town:
Llama
Jahudo
Bobsnox
Darla
FF

Null:
Broken
DLG
CMAR
Flinter

Somewhat scummy:
Yos
Fishy
Nikanor

Scummy:
Whisky

Scum:
Bidderskins

I'm going to go back and look for the case against Ender now and try to deal with it.
I want responses (Preferably votes in agreement) to my case against Bidderskins.

Calls Whiskey scum again.

IF YOU BELIEVE A PLAYER IS CAUGHT LYING, ANY OTHER LYNCH IS UNACCEPTABLE.
That said I don't think Whisky's supposed contradiction was anything other than sarcasm even if he's scum.

Demands DLG keeps voting for whiskey, but at the same time says he dosn't agree with the case. Then goes on to add "even if he's scum", again implying that Llama thinks Whiskey is likely scum.

His behavior fits with an apparent "lynch Darla then Snox/Whisky" plan shared by a Yosarian/Bub scumteam.

Then, with his absurd "Bub/Yos are trying to mislynch Darla and then mislynch Whiskey" conspiricy theory, implies that Whiskey is town again.

Then, after Whiskey defended LLama:

Llmarble doent deserve this wagon.

Llama flips and starts defending Whiskey.

I don't think Whiskey is scum either, though I'm in the middle of a post on that.

Whiskey is town, I think.
His ISO makes sense. I looked at his meta and his play as townie in a newbie game isn't dissimilar from his play here.
I think he believes what he's saying and his logic looks like town logic even if I don't agree with him in places.
Why are we lynching him again?

So, at this point, either Llama is now defending Whiskey since Whiskey is pretty much the only guy still on his side, or else Llama honestly did a re-read and changed his mind on Whiskey being scummy.

But then, only a few hours later, he flips again, and starts setting himself up so he can vote Whiskey if necessary to protect himself.

I would vote Whisky to prevent a no-lynch.

Okay at this point it looks like Bubscum will have to wait.
VOTE: Morewhisky
Hopefully I'm wrong and he's scum.

He unvote whiskey again after this, but then after Whiskey claims a power role, he has this bizzare post:

Scum almost always claim PRs D1 because it sometimes stops them from getting lynched when they would otherwise.
This makes a claimed PR a lot more likely to be scum.
Also FF softclaimed, meaning the odds of randomly hitting a town PR are reduced further.
I may not have access enough to vote in time tomorrow and lynching 40%scum60%PR (normally it'd be more like 60%scum but I dropped the percentage due to my read) is better than lynching 100% VT.
VOTE: MoreWhisky

Suddenly he's more suspicious of Whiskey, and more willing to lynch him, because Whiskey claimed to be a power role? That doesn't make any sense at all to me. Pro-town people are usually much less willing to lynch a power role. (Note this was before Whiskey's absurd fakeclaim).

Then, in Llama's first post of day 2, tried to use his "defense of whiskey" as a reason why he was town, and I really don't buy that. He went back and fourth on whiskey any number of times in the short period he was playing; he was inconsitant throughout.

This post of mine is already absurdly long, so I'm going to wrap it up here, even though there's more I could say. Let me just say that I also think LLama's day 2 posting seems OMGUS-ish, and oppertunistic. Based on his day 1 convictions, he should be trying to lynch Bub; based on his day 2 case, he should be trying to lynch DLG, but instead, he's trying to lynch me. Why? Because that way he can follow Fate, and that way Fate takes the blame when the wagon goes wrong, and because this way it looks like he can actually get a mislynch. Looking at Llama's posts, he spent so much time saying how sure he was that Bub and DLG are scum, but then just drops that as soon as he has the chance to mislynch someone else; I don't buy that at all as coming from town-Llama.

[Yosarian2]

Ill get to yos posts later. He's pretty arrogant to think he can push this mislynch through so brazenly

So...your theory is that me, as scum, have gone to such great lengths to try to get through a "mislynch" on someone who has consistently been close to a lynch on his own for most of the game, and has at one time or another been suspected by nearly all of the people in the game? That's really what you're going with?

If I was scum who wanted Llama lynched, all I would have had to do is do nothing, really. But because I've been aggressively scum-hunting and trying to create and explain cases, you want to lynch me.

[Yosarian2]

I've talked about this already so I'll just quote myself.

Do you really think that you re-quoting posts of yours that I've already read and responded to are going to change my mind, or anyone else's? I only repeated my points there because Fishy specifically asked me to put all my reasons to suspect you in one post.

DLG supposedly thought Whisky had said "I think llama and Darla are buddies" and then in his next post had said "llama and Darla? Buddies? I'd never have thought of that." If Whisky had actually meant that second post, he would have totally forgotten what his reads were, which doesn't make sense at all from town who are trying to figure out who the scum are. Therefore I found it extremely strange that DLG was voting me despite believing this behavior from Whisky. But I also stated I believed Whisky to have been simply sarcastic, so you are accusing me of trying to get someone to change their vote while explaining why the reason they should change their vote was bad???

I still think that's an odd tack for you to take. Why would you think DLG should have been 100% sure about his reading of whiskey's posts, to the point where it'd be insane for him to vote someone else, if at the same time you thought that his reading of whiskey's posts was wrong? If you thought Whiskey was town, why were you trying so hard to get DLG to vote for him? Why were you trying to get DLG to commit to a course of action based on logic you thought was wrong? None of what you did there makes sense from a pro-town perspective.

It makes much more sense if I assume you're a scum who was willing to do anything to stop people from voting for you. If you're scum, then attacking DLG for voting you instead of Whiskey is a win-win; either DLG goes back to voting Whiskey, or you discredit the person who was leading the attack against you at the time.

But if you're town, then I don't at all understand your mental process there.

Note "THEN AGAIN" which means I am considering multiple possibilities.

Yes, you were. As I said, you were going back and fourth on the issue for most of the day, usually with such a timing as to make either your defense of whisey or your attacks on him seem tactical.

What made you think I should be trying to lynch DLG? I think I've raged at him more than anybody else, but whenever I cooled off and analyzed him he never really came up as near the scummiest player since it seemed like he might actually believe his case against me regardless how outrageously bad it seemed. It's true I'd probably still be voting Bub if Fate hadn't arrived, but Fate made me way more confident of my reasons for suspicion of Yos and shook my confidence in Bubscum with his early posting.

This is the point. For most of the game, you've been going back and fourth between attacking DLG and attacking Bub, especally when the two of them were leading the attack against you. That's really all the "scumhunting" you've done all game. Now, you've suddenly dropped both cases, and are only attacking me. Why?

Because now you think you can get me lynched.

That seems to be the only reason; Fate starts attacking me, I suddenly look like I might be lynchable, so you and your friend Fishy suddenly drop everything else and vote for me.

That's not the way a pro-town person who's actually scumhunting behaves. If you really thought your case on DLG or on Bub was as strong as you kept saying it was, then you should still be trying to lynch them now. But you don't seem to actually care who gets lynched, so long as it's not you; you seem happily willing to settle for whichever mislynch is easiest for you to get. That's one of the best scumtells there is.

[Yosarian2]

Of course I don't think I'm going to change your mind scum. You're already all-in to lynch me today.

If you're town, you should be trying to change my mind. I'm always willing to change my mind if someone gives a reasonable argument.

Of course, your response that I'm "scum" who's "all in to lynch you", whatever that means, just makes you look worse here, to anyone who's actually still paying attention.

YOU ARE RIDICULOUSLY TWISTING MY "WHY IS DLG VOTING ME IF HE THINKS WHISKY IS LYING" STUFF.
DLG said he thought Whisky was lying about his reads on my slot/Darla. But he voted me. I thought this was a really weird move from DLG since if he actually believed Whisky was lying it would be extremely strong evidence of whiskyscum, so his stated belief didn't make sense with a non whiskyvote. I also stated I disagreed that Whisky was lying there and believed he was being sarcastic BECAUSE I THOUGHT WHISKY WAS BEING SARCASTIC. So I felt given DLG's assumptions his play didn't make sense but I also disagreed with his assumptions.

That's just a bizzare chain of logic. If you thought DLG's case against Whiskey was strong, and didn't understand why he wasn't following it, that's be reasonable. But it seems like you thought it was weak, but thought he should follow it anyway. It dosn't make sense.

Like I said before, it's not like DLG claimed Whiskey lied about his role or something. We're talking about either Whiskey getting confused about who his suspects were, which would be moderatly scummy, or him being sarcastic, which would not be. Neither one of those seems to justify your crazed all caps "IF YOU BELIEVE THAT YOU MUST VOTE FOR WHISKEY" garbage.

Honestly, are you really trying to claim that all of your demands that DLG to vote for Whiskey weren't at least partly motived by a desire to not have DLG vote you? I can't believe that.

I've never voted DLG. Bub I thought was scum BEFORE he jumped on my wagon. I AM VOTING YOU BECAUSE I THINK YOU'RE SCUM. I still think Bub is scummy, and his posting D2 has been AWFUL, but as I've previously explained after Fate arrived and agreed with my reasons for finding you scummy I became way more confident in them.

Fate didn't actually give any real reasons to find me scummy. He just said YOS IS SCUM and gave you some cover for voting for me yourself.

Your claim that that made you "more confident" is pretty pathetic. I'm sure it seems clear to any impartial observer that what really changed is that not the strength of the case on me or on bud, but that you think you can get me lynched now; it's a pure tactical move, with no real scumhunting involved. If you had stuck to your guns and kept trying to lynch Bud, your earlier suspect, you'd look a lot more town to me right now.

[Yosarian2]

Who is else is scum Yos? You're not getting Marble lynched today, I guarantee it. Now pick another target, and we'll go from there.

I don't know what makes you say Marble isn't getting lynched today; he's still the #1 wagon as he has been for most of the day; he has 5 votes, and Jahodo has also showed a willingness to vote him. He's a lot more likely to get lynched today then anyone else.

As for your other question, right now, I would guess the scum are Marble, probably Fishy, and probably either one or two of the lurkers (the lurkers being warewolf, Darla, DavidParker, and brokenscraps is borderline). I'm guessing that at least some of the lurkers are town; having a few town lurkers, and the scum seemingly unwilling to bus LLama, would explain why it's been so damn hard to get a lynch through on Marble, since there may only 7 or 8 active pro-town people in total, but I'm hoping it's still going to be possible. In any case, if we don't lynch scum today, it's going to be even harder to get a majority together tomorrow, so I'm not willing to back off now.

[Yosarian2]

I'm intrigued by this claim that I've been attacking fairly obvtown people. I don't think DLG, BB or you are obvtown, or anything close to it. Can you explain?

I think DLG, especally, has seemed really pro-town so far this game. Starting from the way he instantly shifted off the Final Fires wagon when FF started making sense, I really got the vibe that his day 1 behavior was good, strong, pro-town scumhunting, even when I didn't agree with it. He gave good reasons for everything, he was consistantly leading rather then following, but he was willing to change his mind as new evidence came up. All of his suspicious seemed reasonable to me. During day 1, I think he was pretty much at the top of everyone's townlist.

Another thing - unless I've missed it, you've hardly if at all addressed the reasons I voted DLG or BB.

I certanly did. The primary reason, basically the only reason, for your votes were that you didn't like their votes for Llama.

To be clear, my BB vote is based entirely on his recent play on Llama. The points from before that are minor in comparison.

And I spent a lot of time responding to your reasoning. I showed how terrible that "quicklynching" accusation you were making was. The rest of your accusation was mostly just fluff. You made weak comments like this:

1. Tries to undermine Llama because the latter writes in capitals. Painting your opponent as desperate scum is always easier than actually analysing their play.
2. Calls Llama's case on BB weak because it's built on the contradictions of Llama changing on DBE, and of disliking both DBE and BB. This is incredibly weak. First, he makes no attempt to address Llama's (entirely believable) claim that his reads changed while he was catching up. Second, Llama's contradiction, or lack of it, is totally irrelevant to his case on BB. It's totally valid to call both DBE and BB scummy, and be more certain about either than the other. Thirdly, BB simply doesn't bother to defend the actual points! Trying to discredit the attacker instead of defending yourself is a scummy way to go about things.

Both of those points are incredibly weak, and fairly obviously so. Llama's insistence on doing MASSIVE ALL CAPS ANGRY OMGUS RESPONSES to people attacking him was actually scummy; it was a sign that he was desperate scum, and a pretty clear appeal to emotion.

What do you think of them? Why do they make you think I was attacking them because they suspected Llama, rather than because they voted Llama in a massively scummy way?

I don't think there was anything scummy about their votes for Llama at all. Besides, any claims on your part that your suspicions of them weren't because they voted Llama, but because they did it "in a massively scummy way" have been pretty much killed by the fact that you've now voted for me, clearly just because I voted for Llama. You never tried to say that there was anything scummy about my play at all, until Fate gave you and your buddy Llama the illusion that you guys had a chance of lynching me, then you were all over it.

You and Llama seem to quite clearly be working as a team here. The connections between the two of you are pretty obvious at this point.

I never said that at all. Trying to save your own skin is obviously a null tell. On the other hand, pro-town people shouldn't use their vote as a club to try to save their own skin; they should defend themselves to the best of their ability, but they should also keep scumhunting and keep trying to find scum with their vote. Only scum should OMGUS and try to use their vote as a tool to get people off their wagon.

Doesn't mean that town never do that, of course, but they shouldn't, and that makes it a moderately effective scumtell.

Llama just didn't use his vote as a club to try to save his own skin. It was only when it was vote MW or die that he voted MW. Before that, his vote was on BB, and IMO that was totally reasonable.

I'm not talking about the MW vote. I'm talking about how he's consistently used his vote as a tool to attack people just because he doesn't like that they've been attacking him. He's gone through and systematically attacked everyone voting for him, just like you've gone through and systematically attacked everyone voting for him. The only person who wanted to lynch Llama that the two of you guys realized you couldn't attack yesterday was Fires (after a quick, aborted effort by Llama when he realized it wouldn't work) , but he conveniently turned up dead instead.

Your claim that that made you "more confident" is pretty pathetic. I'm sure it seems clear to any impartial observer that what really changed is that not the strength of the case on me or on bud, but that you think you can get me lynched now; it's a pure tactical move, with no real scumhunting involved. If you had stuck to your guns and kept trying to lynch Bud, your earlier suspect, you'd look a lot more town to me right now.

What Llama has been saying sounds like he is in the precise same situation as me. It would be an odd thing to think to fake as scum - you wouldn't become more confident about anything when you heard Fate, as you'd already know the answers. Llama's reaction to Fate replacing in is totally town - I know because I'm in the precise same position.

So. That's why I think Llama is town.

Your, and Llama's, reaction to Fate replacing in is pretty much the same; just pure oppertunism, as far as I can see.

As for why Yos is scum; he's got the situation more wrong than I believe Yostown would. I don't think this situation is as hard to read as all that.

If you're attacking me just because you think I'm wrong, then when we lynch Llama and he flips scum, proving that I was right all along, how are you going to respond?

I'm usually pretty good at knowing how I look in a game, and I don't think Yos's picture of me squares with reality. He doesn't seem curious about my alignment in the slightest - I've never got the impression that there's more he wants to know about my motivations or stances.
All his comments on the game serve a single agenda, and this game is just not that simple.

At this point, I'm primarily focused on lynching Llama. He flips scum, which he probably will, you can bet I'm going to be a lot more focused on you tomorrow.

By the way; the game IS that simple. It's day 2, and nearly everyone has commented on the Llama wagon. We lynch Llama, he flips scum, I think it's going to be fairly easy to figure out who his buddies are. We lynch Llama today, he flips scum, and I think the town probably wins.

[Yosarian2]

I have reasons, thats what makes me say it.

You have reasons? I'm going to need to hear this explained. Now.

Fishy is "scum" based on bullshit connections made PRE-FLIP,

You don't lynch someone based on connections pre-flip. That dosn't make them any less scum.

derp some of dem lurkers are scum is NOT scumhunting, its painting with a bigass scumbrush.

You got an idea how to read people who have hardly ever posted, slots where we've had 3 or 4 differnet people in them without ever having a single active person? Basically, the only way to "read" chronic lurkers like that is to just lynch them, and we probably will have to just do that unless someone active replaces into those slots first, but we're going to worry about that after we lynch the caught scum first.

[Yosarian2]

Role related reasons. Marble is town. No more will be said.

...

unvote

vote:fate

I'm going to give you exactally one chance to claim, just on the off chance something weird is going on here, but if you're claiming what I think you are, then you are lying scum.

[Yosarian2]

I know you're here, you sonofabitch. You just posted 8 minutes ago. Stop stalling and claim.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not claiming cop if thats what you're asking. I'm claiming that I know Marble is town. I'm not claiming my role.

You did not cop investigate Fate last night.

You also are not a mason buddy of Fate, since Nik voted Ender earlier in the game.

There are no other roles, other then a cop or a mason, in a normal game that can give you 100% confidence that someone is town.

You are bullshitting. You were faking an innocent investigation on Marble until you realized I have role based reason to know you are a liar.

Honestly, that might mean marble is town, and you were trying to use that to set up a fake claim or something. I don't know. What I do know is that you are lying scum, and you have been caught.

[Yosarian2]

There are other roles, your creativity is lacking.

Think faster, scum.

[Yosarian2]

Fate was trying to set up an info role softclaim. He was caught lying. He's trying to think of a way to bullshit his way out of it now.

[Yosarian2]

...

...

Something seriously weird is going on here.

Llama, I'm going to need to hear a conformation on Fate's claim from you before I say anything else.

[Yosarian2]

:twiddles thumbs impatiently:

[Yosarian2]

I got to say, I'm a little fuzzy on why you quoted the normal game whitelist if you were going to claim a role that actually wasn't on there at all.

[Yosarian2]

I didn't get anything telling me I was masonized or anything like that.

Ok, so Fate's a lying scum.

We can go ahead and lynch Fate now.

Claim?

I never claimed anything.

Just quotes and devil-advocate speculation that's all

<3

Lol...so now you're going to just go back on your claim?

Ok; Fate is scum, Llama might be town. I was hoping that Llama was going to claim to be masonized buddies with Fate so we could nail them both together, but Fate being a lying scum is good enough for today.

[Yosarian2]

(Hehe Yos thinks he can lynch me with a lynch all liars policy)

Hehe fate thinks he can blatantly attempt to fake a cop claim and then not get lynched when he gets caught.

Of course you lynch basically anyone who lies about their role. One in a blue moon, you get some village idiot noob who tries to fake a claim as town (like Whiskey did day 1, urg), usually as a desperate last ditch attempt to avoid getting lynched, but it basically always implodes, and competent players generally know better. You certainly would have had no reason to fake a cop claim as town there.

[Yosarian2]

I'm kinda confused atm. Isn't yos supposed to be a relatively experienced player? why isn't he acting as one.

Um, I am. When an experienced player catches someone lying about their role, they lynch that person.

I'm a little confused why Fate hasn't been lynched yet, to be honest.

[Yosarian2]

@Fate: why did you post this:

Role related reasons. Marble is town. No more will be said.

Because he's lying scum who was trying to set up for a day 3 cop claim, obviously.

Remember, if there's a 4 man scum team in this game, we're facing lynch or lose on day 4. He wouldn't have had to bullshit for long.

[Yosarian2]

DP also seems town so far. And town do make gambits sometimes. I'm not interested in lynching Fate today. Especially since claiming masonizer is so easily disprovable.

Dude, are you paying attention?

He wasn't trying to claim masonizer. He was trying to claim cop, and I caught him in a lie, using role-based information, and put him in a situation that he literally had no possible way of bullshitting his way out of.

He claimed he had role-based information that you were town. I knew this was a lie, because he obviously wasn't your mason buddy, and because I tracked Nik last night and I knew that he did not target you. So I called him out on it. After I told him that I knew he was lying about getting a cop investigation on you, he tried to weasel his way out of it. He quoted the entire whitelist of normal roles, implying that he was one of those. But, of course, none of those could possibly work. Then, desperate, he went for the bullshit "Oh I'm a masonizer lol" line, trying to pass the whole thing off as a joke.

Of course, it wasn't a joke. No pro-town person claims cop on day 2 in order to try to save a claimed vanilla townie just because you have a hunch that he's probably town; if you do that, you probably just out the real cop for absolutely no gain, get yourself lynched in the process, and cause a town loss. And there is absolutely no other way to interpret his initial posts other then as an attempt to claim cop.

He first hints at it here:

I have reasons, thats what makes me say it.

I call him out on it:

I have reasons, thats what makes me say it.

You have reasons? I'm going to need to hear this explained. Now.

And he takes the bait.

Role related reasons. Marble is town. No more will be said.

Again, his "masonizer" bullshit aside, there are only two roles that can confirm someone as town; mason, and cop. He was already confirmed to not be a mason, so this was clearly a cop softclaim, period.

At this point, I knew he was lying, so:

Role related reasons. Marble is town. No more will be said.

...

unvote

vote:fate

I'm going to give you exactally one chance to claim, just on the off chance something weird is going on here, but if you're claiming what I think you are, then you are lying scum.

Knowing he was caught, but still not sure how (he probably didn't know if I was the cop and was counterclaiming, or if I had some other way to know he was lying), he tried to temporize:

I'm not claiming cop if thats what you're asking. I'm claiming that I know Marble is town. I'm not claiming my role.

But there was absolutly no other way to read his post other then as a cop claim, and he knew it. He tried this:

There are other roles, your creativity is lacking.

Vanilla Townie, Sane Cop, Doctor, Vigilante, Roleblocker, Mason, Innocent Child, Jailkeeper, Tracker, Watcher, Gunsmith, Miller, Bodyguard, Role Cop, Doublevoter, Hider, Neighbor, Bulletproof, Jack of All Trades, Serial Killer, Mafia Traitor, Mafia Godfather, Mafia Framer, Mafia-aligned versions of above roles

But, of course, none of those roles fit the situation at all, except for cop or something that had a cop investigation, and he knew it. He was stalling for time, hoping to create some confusion and find some kind of window to BS his way out of it.

Finally, in an act of absolute desperation, he said this:

Mason recruiter.

'nuff said.

Because there was literally nothing else he could have said. But I guarantee you, when he made the initial post, it was never his intent to eventually claim mason recruiter. He was going for a cop claim, and he'd probably have pulled it off and won the game for his scum team with it, if he hadn't been tracked last night.

I'm also kind of bemused that you still have my name on your scum list, marble. I'm really wondering if you've been reading the game at all here.

[Yosarian2]

As scum I don't gambit, and if I did I wouldn't try and setup a claim with a blatant softclaim on a popular mislynch, which would derail said mislynch.


Yosarian is saddeingly town, I can't believe he doesn't see the zero scum motives for my play, especially considering how many people had me read as town.

Meh. You'd already successfully divided the town into a pro-Llama faction and an anti-Llama faction, and made yourself the leader of the pro-Lllama faction. If people had accepted your cop fakeclaim, and there was no reason to think they wouldn't have, then the anti-Llama faction would have fallen apart, and you could have led the town pretty much anywhere you wanted for the rest of the game without even being questioned.

Granted, you'd have to have pretty big balls to go for a gambit like that, but if it works your scum team probably wins.

I really don't believe that were ever intending to claim mason recruiter, and especially not that Fate-town would do that. If Llama is town, very low chance he goes along with your claim, most pro-town people don't lie. And if he does go along with your claim, there's a reasonable chance he's scum, in which case you've probably just screwed the town by making them think a scum is a confirmed innocent. Plus, if you had been planning to claim mason recruiter, you wouldn't have quoted the normal game whitelist, which does not include that role.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, are you claiming that town don't fakeclaim or that they don't fakeclaim specifically like this?

I can't imagine town fakeclaiming like this.

Honestly, I know there are a couple of people who fakeclaim as town on occasion, but for the most part I don't really entertain the idea that town might be lying; it's hard enough to figure out what's going on when you assume "if X is town, he's telling the truth". There are good reasons that lynch all liars (as far as lying about roles go) has always been a good pro-town policy, even in a meta where town occasionally lie.

Fate is a kind of player that would do this as town. Maybe scum too but I don't see how this is a must lynch moment that you needed to claim Yos, though I still think you are town.

Fate does seem like the kind of player who's capable of gambits as either alignment. That being said, I still don't think he would claim cop on day 2 just to derail a wagon on a claimed vanilla, and I really don't think his whole "I was going to claim mason recruiter all along but I really didn't think through what that would mean" line. He's clearly a smart guy; he might take risks, but I don't think he would do it without at least thinking things through first.

I will also say that I'm probably not the main pro-town information role. I've already partly claimed, so I might as well just say that I'm not even a full tracker. There probably is a real pro-town info role, most likely a cop, and if I hadn't killed Fate's fake-cop claim in the bud, the real cop probably would have been outed.

[Yosarian2]

I'm curious as to why Yos even decided to track Nikanor in the FIRST place given his little interaction with my slot.

Tracker's a tricky role. Scum are always going to send out the member of their scum group that's attracted the least suspicion, so as to avoid getting tracked or roleblocked; for example, if Llama is scum, there's about a 0% chance that his scum team sends him out to kill right after he almost gets lynched. So the only shot the tracker has is to figure out who might be scum but hasn't really been attacked yet at all; you want to try to pick out the scum who's been flying under the radar, the guy everyone has a null read on.

[Yosarian2]

I figured as much. Still, there were MORE null read slots than Nikanor. Nikanor posted some pretty original content every once in awhile (see his posts on striker, his posts on why marble is town, etc.)

Actually, his defense of marble later in the day was one reason I suspected him.

But meh, null point.

Are you going to agree to treat my gambit as null or is your vote gonna be wasted all fuckin day?

I don't think that your gambit is null. You can say whatever you want about how "you don't gambit as scum" or whatever, but the fact is, even if I didn't believe the lying about your role was inherently scummy (and I do), this specific gambit just makes more tactical sense if I assume Fate-scum then if I assume Fate-town.

That doesn't mean you CAN'T be town, and it doesn't mean I'm going to vote you from now until the end of the day no matter what. But it's defiantly a big, black mark against you, and I don't see that changing.

On an unrelated note:

I am sincerely sorry guys, some stuff came up yesterday I hadn't planned for (nice things teehee) and I've just been busier than I anticipated. Picking up prod, reading thread, will have a good post ready for you all before bed.

Darla, part of the reason I signed up for this game in specific was because you were on the playlist, I was excited to see you playing again and I wanted to get in a game with you. That being said, if you really don't have time to play this game, you're going to need to replace out. I hope you don't, I hope you stick with it get caught up and start playing, but we can't afford to have an empty hole in your player slot for the rest of the game.

[Yosarian2]

If Yosarian has any town sense left, he won't out his actual results until after (if) I am made to claim

(nods) Yeah, unless a tracker actually catches a scum killing someone, claiming unnecessary details is generally a bad idea, it just tells the scum who's a power role and who isn't.

[Yosarian2]

Fun. After much effort, Fate finally succeeds in defusing the Llamawagon only when his fakeclaim is exposed.

The funny thing is, it really only works if Fate is scum. If Fate is scum, then he probably wouldn't claim an innocent just to save a scum buddy like that, so if Fate is scum Llama is probably town. But if Fate is town, then the gambit doesn't tell us anything, except "Fate really thinks Llama is town" and we already know that.

[Yosarian2]

What I don't get about Fate's play is that I can't see a townie being so desperate to stop a claimed vanilla townie from being lynched on D-2. Okay, if it was LYLO or really late into the game, I would understand it. But on day 2? Really?

On the other hand, I could see a scum doing that to protect his partner. Admittantly it seems really risky from a scum perspective, but it makes more sense than the town version.

I have to say, I thin it's unlikely Llama does that to save a scumbuddy. Way too risky, it ties the two of them together too closely.

On the other hand, Llama-scum fakes a cop claim to save a VT, that VT now is going to trust him and vote with him for the rest of the game, and isn't going to ever be a threat to his scum group.

If Fate flips scum, I really think Llama is town. Even if it looks like we're not going to be able to lynch Fate today, I'm defiantly not going to go back to voting Llama today, and probably not at all until I know Fate's alignment.

[Yosarian2]

I have to say, I thin it's unlikely Llama does that to save a scumbuddy. Way too risky, it ties the two of them together too closely.

When you voted Whiskey, two days before deadline, you had a choice.

This is twice now that you have reversed players in your posts. Why are you paying so little attention to your posts?

I didn't reverse myself all. What are you talking about?

...

(read)

D'oh. I meant to say "I think it's unlikely Fate does that to save a scumbuddy." That probably should have been clear from what I was responding to, though.

Defending a scumbuddy is one thing; scum do that all the time. But faking a cop innocent to save a scumbuddy, on day 2? That seems much less likely to me.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, I had no trouble understanding your intent. I don't even attach any particular scumminess to the mistakes. I was just wondering if there was something hidden that I was missing. Your response eases my concerns because I find it likely that you might just make those mistakes if posting without really reviewing the posts.

I'm a little confused by your response here. If you knew that I meant, then why did you ask? What did you think I was trying to say? What hidden meaning did you think you saw in my post?

[Yosarian2]

In Fate-scum / llama-town you had a good mislynch sitting there and it seemed like Yos and Bub would be implicated more so wouldn't you just let that all happen?

Mmm...well, I see what you mean.

I'm still having trouble seeing any town-Fate explanation for his actions, though. His current claim, that he was trying to stop a wagon on a scummy looking, claimed vanilla townie, because he had a strong feeling that the claimed vanilla townie was town, so he faked an innocent on him; and that he was never intending to claim cop, he was always intending to claim mason recruiter, even though hypo-town-Llama would never go along with that, even though the claim would never have worked, and even though he quoted the entire normal game whitelist that didn't have mason recruiter on it, just seems so unbelievable to me. Fate is clearly a strong player and a smart guy; he might gambit, but the idea that Fate-town would go to the extreme of a fakeclaim gambit without any planning or forethought at all seems just incredibly unlikely to me. I think it's much more likely that he was planning to claim cop until I called him out on it.

Frankly, Fate, if that's true, you really should just admit it now; if you were planning to claim cop and just fell back on the mason recruiter claim to avoid being counterclaimed, and actually thought that a fake cop claim there was good for the town somehow, you should say so. Your story right now still doesn't make any sense, and you need to come clean with us here.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not sure that makes sense, marble.

You think Bub is scum and Fate is town, right? Right now, Bub has 5 votes and Fate has 4, and we're heading towards deadline. If Jahudo was scum with Bub, he could tip the balance towards a Fate lynch.

Likewise, if Fate is scum and Bub is town, and Jahudo was scum with Fate, Jahudo could vote for Bub and tilt the lynch that way.

I don't really see any likely scenerios where Jahudo is scum here (especally since I think it's very unlikely that both Fate and Bub are scum together). Also, his reasoning in general this game has seemed town-ish.

[Yosarian2]

Jahundo couldn't tip the balance without stretched and forced reasoning, which would out himself as scum to anyone with sharp eyes.

Meh. Not really; it wouldn't be much of a streach to vote for either Bub or for you here.

I mean, now, after all the time he's spent defending you, he'd have trouble voting for you right now. But that raises another good point; he's been your most eloquent and convincing defender for a while now. Hell, he's done a better job defending you then you have, and he still is, as recently as post #936. I don't at all see how that fits into a "Jahundo is scum with Bud" theory" at all.

[Yosarian2]

It doesn't matter whether Jauhndo is a bubbuddy or argiung that point TODAY. It doesn't make bub any mre town.

And the way you keep talking to me like I'm town and saying Jahundo did a good job defending while voting me is starting to give me weird itch feelings.

What I'm trying to do is to understand your thought process here. I'm always willing to consider the possibility that I might be wrong, even when that seems logically very unlikely, but in any case I can't at all see why you, as town, would suspect Jahundo here.

You're right, Jahundo's alignment isn't the issue today. The issue today is your alignment.

[Yosarian2]

Well, a bub lynch would be better then a no-lynch, but I'm really not convinced by the case on him. The so-called "scum slip" seems pretty thin.

[Yosarian2]

Crap; the deadline's sunday? I'm going to be away for the weekend, and we're leaving in a few minutes.

I'm going to try to make a quick post tommorow morning, but I might not be able to. Guys, if I'm not here, make damn sure you hammer someone, ok? We can't afford a no-lynch.

[Yosarian2]

Just re-read DLG's posts from day 2, trying to figure out who he investigated, but if he left any breadcrumbs I don't see them.

Ok. If there is a vig, he or she should probably claim now, because if we've somehow got a vig along with a cop, doc, and limited tracker, then we could be dealing with a 4 man scum team. I don't think we are, but who knows. In any case, if you're a vig and you don't claim today, we're not going to believe you at all.

If we are dealing with a SK, then there's an interesting missing kill on night 1, back when we still had a doctor. Makes me want to go back and re-read FF's posts, and try to figure out who he would have protected that night.

[Yosarian2]

Ah, simulpost. Yeah, I really doubt DLG got any guilties on night 1; he was not acting like a cop with a guilty at all.

[Yosarian2]

Him not claiming anything today gives off bad vibes though

From yesterday:

If Yosarian has any town sense left, he won't out his actual results until after (if) I am made to claim

(nods) Yeah, unless a tracker actually catches a scum killing someone, claiming unnecessary details is generally a bad idea, it just tells the scum who's a power role and who isn't.

Unless I see someone targeting someone who was killed, or unless I can catch someone in a lie or otherwise share useful information, don't expect to see me to claim any results. And even then, I would likely wait until the time is right.It's odd that you would question this today, when you seemed to understand it yesterday.

, as well as his whole "I'm not a strong tracker, there's probably stronger PRS than me out there" being a weirdass post.

Part of the reason I claimed when I did was that, if I didn't, your cop fakeclaim probably would have outed the real cop. It's really just lucky that DLG didn't post before I did.

Also, I didn't quite say "I'm not a strong tracker". What I said was

I've already partly claimed, so I might as well just say that I'm not even a full tracker.There probably is a real pro-town info role, most likely a cop, and if I hadn't killed Fate's fake-cop claim in the bud, the real cop probably would have been outed

And the reason I wanted to say that was that if there was a cop or another info role, which there probably was since a limited tracker is not going to be the only info role in a 14 player game, I didn't want them to claim. Yeah, a cop shouldn't counterclaim a tracker claim, but I've seen people do dumber things.

I don't really see any reason to go into much more detail, but let me pull a Fate here and quote the normal rules.

Modifiers which are explicitly Normal include:
Even/Odd Night, Non-Consecutive Night, X-Shot, Bulletproof, Compulsive, Macho, Weak, Back-Up (with or without primary role present)

[Yosarian2]

I understood why you didn't go into DEPTH with your track on me, but no indication of how you used your role, whether you were RBd, who you may have used it on?

To be honest, this whole line of questioning feels like you want to be reassured that you or your scumbuddy didn't get caught killing last night before you overcommit yourself today.

At this point I'm led to believe either Yos or Fate is scum (not both)

This seems like a bizzare post. Care to explain?

Yos, David can you give your up to date Darla read?

Well, she hasn't really given any sign of being pro-town this game. That may be because of unavoidable circumstances, but she's still a perfectly reasonable default lynch. Bub and DLG both being confirmed town kind of limits the plausible scum groups at this point, and Darla could be scum with almost anyone. She wouldn't be my first choice for a lynch, but she's probably a decent chance of flipping scum here.

I am curious why you went right for a Darla vote instead of voting for Brokenscrapes. Lurker lynches, especially on a chronic lurker, are always good, but you seemed pretty confident on your brokenscrapes case yesterday; what changed your mind?

[Yosarian2]

Bah, wrong account.

[Yosarian2]

I'm also wondering if this is a scum slip.

Oh good fucking lord DONT EVEN BOTH FUCKING CLAIMING ME YOU VIGGED BOBSNOX.

YOU GODDAMN SK.

I was thinking about the kills, and it's fairly obvious that of the two kills, hypo-Fate-scum would kill DLG, since DLG had been trying to lynch Fate and bob had been a pet townie of Fate yesterday.

Which really makes me wonder why, at the start of the day today, Fate seemed to "know" that the DLG kill was the scumkill, and therefore that the bob kill was either a vig or a SK.

[Yosarian2]

I think you're getting lazy because you think no one will suspect a scumtracker.

Is that really what you're going with? "Scum tracker"? Man, you're really grasping at straws here, aren't you?

Heh. It's kind of amazing that all I have to do is not claim my target for less then 24 hours and you start completely freaking out.

[Yosarian2]

DLG was trying to lynch me? I coulda sworn he was one of the people that was smarter than that.

hmm. (reads back) Ah, you're actually correct. I knew DLG was one of the people on the Llama wagon, but I had forgotten that he had gone to the terrible Bub wagon towards the end of the day instead of voting for you.

[Yosarian2]

I still want an explination for that odd "Either Fate is scum or Yos is" comment, David.

[Yosarian2]

Well what made me most skeptical of Yos is the way he reacted. His immediate reaction was like "YOU CAUGHT!!", okay something maybe town or scum would do when they catch someone in a lie, but he just laid off as soon as the Fate wagon didn't kick off. I recognized Fate caught in a lie, so hopped on the wagon, because Fate deserved the pressure. But Yos has just sorta persistently stated he finds Fate scummy because of his lie without pushing a wagon on him.

"Without pushing a wagon on him"? I was doing everything I could for the rest of the day to get him lynched.
Just because I don't TYPE ANGRY IRRATIONAL BORDERLINE INSANE POSTS IN ALL CAPS when I suspect someone, that doesn't mean I'm not "pushing a wagon on him". 'I stated the facts, over and over again, I pointed out why his behavior only makes sense as scum behavior, and I shot holes in his pathetic "oh i was just going to claim mason recruiter" BS defense.

I'm really still not sure why Fate wasn't lynched yesterday, especially considering how weak the case on Bub was. It's like Fate's got this fan club that won't consider lynching him even when he lies about his freaking role in a way that only scum should ever do and then lies about why he was lying.

[Yosarian2]

Who are you voting right now Yosarian? OH YEAH NOT ME.

I'm not voting anyone right now. At the moment, my main suspects are you, David, and broken, and I'm trying to decide which of the three of you is worse.

That's what he means you're not pushing the wagon. You were perfectly content to see Bubs mislynched, even though in your mind "I'm not sure why bubs was mislynched over Fate yesterday."

"Perfectly content"? What the hell more did I have to do to make clear that I thought you were a better lynch yesterday then Bubs was? I pushed the wagon on you all the way to lynch -3 pretty much singlehandedly, and I never supported the bubs wagon at all.

Yeah sure, I got a "fan club" that sees the TOWN motive behind my actions and the ZERO scum motive. Good luck pushing me all game and then at lylo for the "final mislynch" we'll see who wins in the end.

For crying out loud, YOU LIED. I caught you in a lie, and you CONFESSED to lying. THAT PROBABLY MAKES YOU SCUM. Jesus, it's not a hard concept to get. It doesn't help that your confession didn't make any sense or have any real believability to it.

Yeah, yeah, Jahudo made a plausible argument that you might just be another idiot like albert rampage who occasionally lies about his role even when he's town for stupid reasons, and he might even be right, but betting that the guy who faked a bloody cop investigation for no good reason might have the town's best interests at heart is generally a stupid bet.

I've been trying to give you a chance today, to get a better read on you and try to figure out if Jahudo might be right, but you're sure as hell not looking good so far today.

[Yosarian2]

You wouldn't NEED to give me a chance if you truyl thought I was "in no way possibly town he lied, he scumscumscum" you're OK WITH letting a scumread like me weasel?

You realize that that's pretty much the opposite of what I said, right? I JUST SAID that I think there's a chance you're town in the Albert Rampage style who's stupid enough to fake a cop claim for no reason or whatever the hell it was you thought you were doing. Not that you seem to care about anything anyone actually posts, just what you can pretend they said.

Especially given the fervor of your Llmarble tunnel, thsi change in playstyle is VERY UNCHARACTERISTIC AND VERY SCUMMY.

You clearly don't have the faintest idea of what a "characteristic playstyle" for me is. I will focus on one person when I think that's what's best for the town, I'll look at several people if I think that's what's best for the town. Anyone who has only one play-style and uses it all the time regardless of circumstances is a moron.

The frustrating truth is, I'm actually leaning towards thinking David looks scummier then you now. There's a chance that Jahudo is right and you really are a townie who's idiotic enough to fake a claim for no good reason and then be surprised that he's suspected, whereas I'm having trouble imagining any scenario where David is town. He's swung back and fourth, he wants to cast dispersions on everyone, he's not making any bloody sense. On the other hand, I'm strongly tempted to voting you anyway, because even though he's like 80% likely to be scum and you're only like 60% likely, I'm probably going to be killed tonight and I don't have any confidence in this town to lynch you after I'm dead.

DAVID PARKER IS RIGHT AND THAT MAKES ME SADFACE TO BE SO FOOLED BY YOUR TRACKER CLAIM AND NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT A ROLEBLOCKER.

Right, because no one had better even think about suspecting you or they get the fucking HOLY SHIT I'M GOING TO TYPE IN ALL CAPS treatment, right?

Fuck it. I don't know why I let you get me so mad. I should have figured out by now that you're just an irrational fuckwit.

[Yosarian2]

Fine, let's just lynch the obv scum today. We need to get one in the win collum here; hopefully this game will start to make sense after we do.

Vote:David

If Fate is scum and he pulls off a win here after I'm dead, though, I am going to be so pissed.

[Yosarian2]

Also, for the record, no one had better end the day before I claim my results. I don't expect to live much longer, unless the scum think they can mislynch me later, and while my results aren't especially useful at the moment, they may be later when the town is narrowing down who the SK is.

[Yosarian2]

David, SWITCHED piles. He went from "YOU IZ SCUM FATE WHO WANTED BB LYNCHED THEN DBE!!!" off some random ass comment I made, but today

not only did he change his read on me due to POSTING style, he even called Yosarian scum on a possible roleblocker gambit.

That's part of the reason he's probably scum. I deliberately held back my claim for a while, in the hopes that it would make scum nervous, and in response you and him both started inventing BS reasons to suspect me, him especally. Neither one of you seemed to be trying to lynch me; it looked more like you both just wanted to plant some doubt about me in advance of my claim. It's especially suspect since neither one of you had any doubt about my claim yesterday. Now, I'm not confirmed town; I never claimed to be, and I don't expect anyone to treat me as such, but the timing of his "sudden realization" that "omg yos could be scum" is pretty hard to swallow.

One of the things that's made me doubt my read on you is his scummy "either Yos or Fate is scum" comment. That really looks like scum trying to set up a false dilemma between two townies, and he never really explained it to my satisfaction. It just dosn't make any sense; my information on you was correct, and proven so. So either you're lying town or you're lying scum. That's entirely based on whatever meta people have on you, and whatever is going on inside your head; once my results were confirmed by you, the fact that it was me who called you out became completely unrelated to your alignment.

He's really seemed to just drift with the wind. He was willing to follow me on a lynch on you, or you on a lynch of DBE, or whatever. All in all, he just feels really scummy to me.

[Yosarian2]

You do realize that I was starting to have some doubts about my read on you towards the end of the day yesterday, based on Jahudo's defense of you, and have more of them now, right? What part of "there's a 60% chance Fate is scum" did you not get?

Seriously, when did you stop reading my posts?

[Yosarian2]

So...I'm scum because I'm not tunneling on you? Or I'm scum because I don't 100% know everyone else's alignment?

Seriously, dude, what the fuck?

[Yosarian2]

Well, if the choices today are Darla and Broken, I think I'd rather lynch Broken.

unvote

Vote:Broken

Anyway, to make sure I get a claim off before someone ends the day, let me say this: I investigated Llama last night, and he didn't go anywhere. I did this partly because I think he's scummy, partly because there's no way any scum group would send Fate out last night after everything I said about him, and partly because he's a claimed vanilla, so I knew that if I saw him do anything at all, I'd catch him in a lie.

This defiantly rules out Llama being a SK, and it also probably rules him out as being any kind of scum power role. He could still be a goon who didn't get sent on the kill, of course.

[Yosarian2]

Broken is really making a huge stretch on his semi-case on Fishy. Seems very desperate at this point.

Anyone else notice how CONVENIENT IT WAS that Yos tracked a claimed VT?!??! He won't be producing info that he can get caught out in a lie using because he tracked a claimed VT. I'm really liking a Yos lynch at this point.

I had good reasons for tracking a claimed VT, obviously. Tracking a claimed VT is the right move for a tracker to do, if you think he might be scum; your odds of catching scum that way are muh higher

Also, you realize you're totally contradicting yourself here, right? Last post, you were pretending you thought I was a scum tracker or a scum roleblocker who could thus accuratly fake tracker results by just saying I tracked whoever I rolebloked . Now you seem to be claiming that I don't have any results. You don't even care about making sense at this point, so long as you can invent BS reasons to suspect me, do you?

Can someone (some who's not Fate, obv) please explain to me why we're not lynching David today?

[Yosarian2]

Tracking a claimed VT is the "right" thing to do? HORSESHIT.

What kind of VT claim by scum performs the NK AFTER THE TRACKERS BEEN OUTED ALREADY?

If he's any kind of scum power role, he does something, and I catch him in a lie. That's why tracking a claimed VT is better then tracking anything else. Plus, hell, the way this town has been going, I could bloody have caught you murdering DLG last night or something and you'd probably claim vig and everyone would believe you for no bloody reason. If you catch a claimed VT doing something, they've got no room left to maneuver. Tracking a claimed VT generally gives more solid information then tracking an unclaimed person, for those reasons.

In any case, at the end of the day yesterday, I didn't show any real suspicion on him. The scum may be likely to send him out, on the theory that I'm more likely to target, say, you.

[Yosarian2]

Yos's logic makes sense, even if the chances of catching something were small there would be no excuse llama would give.

I didn't really think it was all that small, either. Based on everything that happened in the game so far, the odds of Llama being some kind of scum power role seemed higher then average.

[Yosarian2]

Well, Darla is certainly not the lynch. May be SK, may be vig, and that's a question for much later in the game, if she's still alive.

Yeah. I don't trust this claim, but unless she's counterclaimed on making the Bob kill, i don't see how she could be mafia.

[Yosarian2]

What time tommorow is the deadline?

I'm still happy with my broken vote, but warewolf looked pretty scummy as well; if it proves necessary to prevent a no-lynch, I could jump over to the Locke wagon and hammer it.