A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[Zdenek]

"You know your generation has failed when your vampires sparkle."

Vote Twilight Sparkle

[Zdenek]

GreyICE, zoraster initiated the calls for people to not self-vote, but I believe you've only directed complaints at DGB. Why is this?

It seems to me that it is unlikely that we are going to learn anything of value from these early votes to raise at all (regardless of whether or not they are self-votes), and who people chose to raise will only become important as the day goes on. As a result of this line of reasoning, I find Magua's argument against self-voting in post 40 to be a bit of a stretch.

I feel uneasy about GreyICE at the moment. On the one hand, I would be surprised if as scum he would be this willing to throw himself into the spotlight, but on the other hand, his attacks on DGB seem weak and contrived.

I am in agreement with Twilight Sparkle's discussion of Magna's statistical analysis and his complaint that it is now worthless.

Mod and all, I will be V/LA from tomorrow until Monday. It is not clear just how limited my access will be at the moment.

[Zdenek]

I've read the thread, and I am pretty much caught up.

General stuff:

do we agree that popping governor immediately on a target no one wants lynched is the way to go?

I am undecided, but my impulse is to give it Benmage and see what he does with it. I have to think more about this game though.

Benmage:

You'll have to convince people why LL is scum....So why is he?

benmage, why ask DGB to convince you that LL is scum, when you already provided a reason to suspect him?

MoI your town.

Also, why do you think MoI is town?

Kast:

I didn't only mean your paranoia about governor power; you're overreacting to almost everyone on almost everything. It rubs me wrong. Do you have any links to past games where you similarly go crazy over nothing?

This question by Kast looks like carefully disguised mudslinging. In addition, many of his posts contain what I consider too much fluff relating to policy lynching and the Raising to the Hand of the King.

Xtotm:

On the whole, liking GreyICE.

Why?

Raivann:

Too agreeable and nice too. The part where she is agreeing with MoI is scum chatting with each other.

Where has Magna responded to her? Do you think that Magna is scum too?

I'd like to add my name to the list of people who aren't impressed with Mikujin's posting, but I have nothing new to add on the subject.

Bunnylover:

Vote: DGB
I have to be in agreeance with GreyICE at the moment. You only know your alignment and no one else's alignment, so self raising is actually the only logical move at the moment.

This is a weak vote.

diddin:

Meta cases on Page 3? lol no

Well, I agree with this statement, but I also think that serious votes help lynch scum more than joke votes, so I don't think that it is scummy to try to construct a case early in the game. The scummyiness depends more on how the case develops over the day.

Not liking GreyICE at all. His talk about having everyone vote him is nonsense for the hand raising. The Hand ability DOES, in fact, have uses for us whether it goes to town or not. Now that the mod has confirmed scum cannot use it for instawin LYLO, it gives us more information by giving it to out biggest townread than a guy shouting HEY I'M TOWN I'M RIGHT AND YOU'RE WRONG MAKE ME THE HAND.

Post 88 is a weak attack too. Using lame Wiki tells like IIoA and not liking someone's use of stats while not explaining WHY the stats are bad at all. If anything calling Magna on IIoA is hypocritical because your post contained little ANALYSIS of MoI's statistics.

I think this is a very weak attack on GreyICE.

If anything, I think his early play is townish because I don't think that scum would be that willing to bring themselves front and center early. I think writing off people's arguments for using wiki-tells is bad play, especially when it come to IIoA. Despite it being a wiki-tell, it is still something that scum tends to do more than town simply because it is a convenient way to look active without getting your hands dirty. Similarly, I think that accusing someone of being scum for using a wiki-tell in a case is a pathetic attack on the person.

The final attack that GreyICE is being hypocritical for not analysis MoI's statistics is also a fairly poor attack, since GreyICE did analyze them, and determined that they told us nothing.

Finally, I would like to say that I am in agreement with Magua about diddin's argument against him and his behaviour around the comment that "ITT having town-reads is scummy."

I'd be okay with lynching diddin at the moment.

What are your reads on GreyICE and MoI?

To summarize them, my immediate impression is that GreyICE is probably town because of his willingness to draw attention to himself. I would say that there is a pretty good chance that his behaviour is indicative of overly aggressive town rather than scum. However, I think his attacks on DGB and his subsequent unvote are both so weak that should DGB be scum, my suspicions of GreyICE would increase.

I am leaning scum on MoI.

Here's why:

GreyICE:

GreyICE starts the game by throwing himself from and center by voting to raise himself after DGB had threatened to vig the next person to raise themselves. Now, I didn't believe DGB, and clearly neither did GreyICE, but I sort of doubt that scum would have had the nerve to do that because their lives are some how more precious than ours.

It should be clear that I don't agree with GreyICE's proposed use of the Hand, but that certainly doesn't make him scum. However, he makes many arguments that I think are far from convincing.

For instance, his vote for DGB:

Vote: DrippingGoofball
Okay, unless we have masons out there, most townies know one person with their alignment. Scum know multiple people with their alignment. They can nominate a 'pro-town' scum and wagon them up to governor.

EXPLAIN THIS VERY INSTANT WHY IT IS ANTI-TOWN TO NOMINATE YOURSELF. DO IT.

Now I am serious: If you raise me governor today I will not use the power. A non-confirmed town governor is too dangerous to be allowed to use their powers day 1, and I am not going to do it. Even if you guys are going to retard lynch an obvtown, I might yell at you - but I won't use the powers.

This does not contain a single argument for why DGB should be scum.

He continues to push for DGB lynch with

Also Goofball vote is serious. I'm getting the feeling Goofball came swinging out day 1 with a gameplan and the self voting threw a spanner in the works. Look at the first post in the thread.

Goofball is flailing coming up for explanations on why it's anti-town. I want to see her thoughts and her thoughts alone here.

Both the the accusations of her coming out swinging and of flailing seem like BS to me.

He also attacks DGB with

DGB has done nothing to foster discussion, and attempted to call it off. Everything since then has apparently been an attempt to play off having a 'sarcastic' meta. Lets ask a simple question, using Scumage's example of apparent "Village Idiots:" would Chesskid be given a pass for similar behavior? Oh, no? Why are we giving her a pass? She's scum, got called on it, and is trying to get her way out of it on this meta bullshit.

But he unvotes very easily:

Holy shit, it posts content! And decent content. Unvote

when all DGB did was post a list of reads.

Then he votes again DBG, almost immediately, because of how she misremembered hasd's old role, which isn't a terrible reason for a vote.

I'd also like to say that I disagree with the foundation of his argument why he should be elected Hand:

I'm curious though, if you really think it's such an evil/bad/anti-town power, then why the hell are you asking to be made Governor instead of forming a coalition to force a tie and eliminate it?

Yeaaaahhhh. So lets see, I need a majority to agree to give me the power to keep it out of the hands of anyone who will misuse it, but any single townie could put it into someone's hands with one vote/unvote at the end of the day?

Yeah, fuck that noise. We wouldn't need a majority, we'd need a total consensus.

If you can achieve your goal of having total consensus, then you can also achieve the goal of forcing people people to award it to no one, under the threat of lynching anyone who votes to prevent your plan from working.

MoI:

I think that MoI's statistical analysis was pointless, and I am surprised that he posted it. It makes me feel like he was trying to appear active. I also think that MoI is smart enough to know that the variance that we can expect between individual players is so great that there would be little to gain from such an analysis. Similarly, I feel that MoI's complaint that the statistics are now worthless is an attempt to seem pro-town. I dislike it first of all because I don't think that there was ever any information to be gained from his statistics about self-raising, but additionally that it seems to be very superficial in the sense that if there ever was anything to gained from this analysis, that it should still be possible to gain information because patterns in who people decide to raise as the day progresses should still be present regardless of initial differences in how the votes were cast.

1. Throwing a wikitell and throwing in profanity to show how ‘passionnate’ you are doesn’t make your flawed arguments more compelling.
2. Once again you posit a Strawman by stating that mislynches were going to flow from the data when IN MY POST I SAID IT WASN’T USEABLE THIS GAME.

I think attack people for using wiki-tells is pretty poor, and in this case it was IIoA.

I agree with Magna that GreyICE did present his argument incorrectly and as a strawman. However, I agree with GreyICE that it was unlikely that anything could have ever been gained from Magna's analysis.

I'm having a hard time deciding if this is GreyICE as town being overly aggressive or GreyICE as scum not caring about scum hunting and perfectly happy to keep the game focused on the statistics.

How again is DGB pushing hard for Cow’s lynch when she is voting for LMP again?

When I've played with MoI as scum, he has definitely been guilty of taking the exact phrasing of someone's statement and using it against him. I feel that he is doing that to GreyICE here. It's not an unreasonable question, but considering that DGB has placed hasd on her scum list, it's a question about an exaggeration that GreyICE is making (one which I don't think has a scum motivation, unless as I said before DGB and GreyICE are scum together an this is all part of a gambit) rather than one about something that he is saying that is completely wrong.

I strongly doubt that Twilight is scum, so I'm going to

Unvote

now.

Vote: diddin
Raise: Benmage

[Zdenek]

Unraise

It just occurred to me that I don't like the look of the wagon to raise benmage. If I had a stronger read on benmage, I'd be willing to vote for him, but for now

Raise Twilight Sparkle

[Zdenek]

GreyICE, if the Hand of the King is so anti-town, then why do you expect that someone who is pro-town would campaign to get it? Do you think that it is possible for someone to campaign for the Hand on grounds that are different from yours and still be pro-town?

You haven’t ever played with me in a game when I was Town. Did you bother to look to see if my posting style was radically different when I was Town?

I've looked at your games in the past, and I don't think that your posting style is radically different depending on whether you're town or scum. As far as the particular issue mentioned in the quote above, is there a particular game that you would like to direct me to? It would be quite difficult for me to demonstrate that you never do something as town, but quite easy, I think, for you to provide evidence that you do.

Do you think that there is a scum motivation behind GreyICE's exaggeration? If you do, what is it?

You should clarify what you mean by mudslinging, because by any standard usage, you are misapplying the term.

You said that GreyICE was overreacting, paranoid and acting crazy. To me, all of these things paint him in a negative light, but none of them is particularly scummy, at least not in these circumstances. Doing that is what I am calling mudslinging.

Zedenk: Forgive me, but I am kinda confused. You are leaning scum on MoI, yet you are voting for Diddin which MoI is currently voting for. My Scum read is voting for this person, by my logic I wouldn't vote that said person too (or at least not on the first day).

There are probably multiple scum teams, so I don't really see why there should be any confusion at all, but additionally, my feelings about Magna are comparatively weak those about diddin.

The more I think about it, the more I am believing that Has post restriction is in fact fake,

Do you mind elaborating?

[Zdenek]

Diddin, there is nothing wrong with the fact that you attacked GreyICE, it is the nature of your arguments that I have a problem with. Moreover, the bulk of the reason why I think that you are scummy is for the reasons already pointed out by Magua.

As far as the hascow business is concerned, I don't feel that it would be a good day one lynch for strategic reasons, much like any policy lynch.

Zoraster, I also would like hearing why you thought ChessKid was dead.

[Zdenek]

@Zdenek-
Clarify, are you claiming that:
-I lied/mischaracterized GreyIce's behavior
-I tried push GreyIce's "negative but not scummy behavior" as if it was scummy behavior
-Something else...(elaborate)

From context you seem to think any negative judgment about another player/post, regardless of veracity, is mudslinging if it is not an indictment of that player as scum. However, you aren't applying this same criteria to similar posts by others, which makes your objection seem lazy or insincere.

I think my previous explanation of what i meant by mudslinging answers your first question: my choice is "something else" and I've already elaborated.

What I didn't like about what you did in particular was that you phrased your comment as a question:

Do you have any links to past games where you similarly go crazy over nothing?

Other people have definitely done mudslinging, GreyICE for instance, but it's already been pointed out, and some other people have called others dumb or VI's, but passing judgments like that can often be useful. For instance, as an explanation why they aren't voting someone. If you think I've missed something, tell me where it is.

If you think hasdgfas is scummy (DGB), that's fine. Concentrating solely on the technical points of his post restriction (danakillsu) is useless.

I disagree with this. If we can figure out the technical points of his post restriction, then we can determine when/if he's broken it, and if there are no repercussions, then we know he's faking it.

Did you read my reply to your accusation that my attack was weak? Do you have anything to say about that? Also you're admitting to sheeping Magua which is just BAAAAAAAAAAD (groan).

Yes, I read it, and it didn't convince me that you're not scummy. Also, when other people have already given rather convincing arguments against someone, there is nothing to be gained by repeating them.

Mikujin seems scummy to me for his vote on DGB because his reasons seem like they point to null-tells rather than scum-tells.

[Zdenek]

I like Benmage's observation and my reads on some people are changing, so

Unraise Twilight Sparkle
Raise Benmage.

So, @Zdenek, do you think hasdgfas is scummy or not?

Under the assumption that he is not faking his post restriction, not particularly. I don't have a strong opinion on whether he is faking it at the moment.

@Magua: I see your point, but not the 3 other people voting him. He's definitely not worth voting over some of the other people here =\

I think that the case on diddin is pretty good, and this objection is pointless unless you provide some names. I think that the case on GreyICE, who you are voting is weaker at the moment. Although as I read, he is getting scummier (mainly because of his interaction with Xvart).

Kast, did you actually want GreyICE to provide you with a link to a game where he went "crazy over nothing" and what do you consider to be mudslinging?

Just to be clear, I don't think that I misapplied the term at all. You attacked GreyICE for things that don't have an obvious bearing on his alignment. The scum motivation for it is that it allows scum to paint someone as scummy for no real reason, simply because it is easy for others to conflate negative aspects of a person with scummy ones.

I'm not liking Zoraster's posts. They all seem geared towards an avoidance of scum hunting: the discussion of how the governor power could be used and the one about role-fishing.

GreyICE's catch in 532, is not a real catch, since Xvart never had a stated town read on him, and was answering a question for Magua. I do not like that GreyICE didn't check to see if this was a mistake.

I do not like that Raivann sheeped the case on Xvart without checking it first.

@Didden- I've actually got a town read on you. Please put you're vote somewhere better.

Can we agree on anyone?

How about Feysal?

What's you're views on xvart?

Reads as desperation.

I don't care for Xtoxm's explanation of his Xvart vote.

Unvote
Vote Raivann

[Zdenek]

Oh Really? That last one was posted less than 24 hours ago.

Sorry, the other posts stood out more for me than they should have.

[Zdenek]

@Zdenek-
-Yes, that's kinda the point behind asking for it. I didn't expect him to provide anything, but if he did, that would have been nice.

I don't think that your question was genuine.

-Mudslinging as a general term refers to discrediting a person or position by attacking negative characteristics the subject. However, in the context of a mafia game, it more specifically refers to malicious attacks aimed at negative aspects of a person/position instead of attacks aimed at legitimate problems with the person/position. This is frequently used to falsely implicate someone as scum by attacking negative aspects of the person's character, even though those aspects don't actually indicate affiliation.
--In our context, I discredited GreyIce's weak attacks by legitimately pointing out that they are overreactions. To call that "mudslinging" AND claim it is a scum-tell, is inconsistent with your own behavior which similarly called the same posts "exaggerations" etc, and inconsistent with not attacking others who posted similarly to GreyIce and others.
--Also in our context, you are claiming the italicized portion, despite the fact that I did not and am not pushing GreyIce as probable scum, and to the contrary, pointed out his overreactions as neutral/null.

But you said

I didn't only mean your paranoia about governor power; you're overreacting to almost everyone on almost everything. It rubs me wrong. Do you have any links to past games where you similarly go crazy over nothing?

Saying that something rubs you the wrong way is not calling it null or neutral. To me, it indicates that you think that something is scummy or at least that you want others to think of it as scummy; hence, the mudslinging accusation.

These

You attacked GreyICE for things that don't have an obvious bearing on his alignment. The scum motivation for it is that it allows scum to paint someone as scummy for no real reason, simply because it is easy for others to conflate negative aspects of a person with scummy ones.

-I tried push GreyIce's "negative but not scummy behavior" as if it was scummy behavior

are not equivalent statements. The first one only requires that one attack someone for things that have no bearing on their alignment and then allows others to construe that the negative behaviour is scummy, but in the second, the person making the initial attack has to push the person's behaviour as though it is scummy.

Your claim that dismissing GreyIce's bad cases are "attacks" on GreyIce is a pretty big misrepresentation.

I haven't done that. My problem is not with you dismissing GreyICE's bad cases, it's with you asking him a question that I don't think that you ever intended him to answer, and saying that his behaviour rubbed you the wrong way.

[Zdenek]

Kast:

-So, you choose to believe the question is insincere and thus ignore it. Having ignored it, you conclude that instead of ASKING HIM FOR META TO CLARIFY HIS POSITION I was instead STATING THAT HIS POSITION IS SCUMMY. If you pick and choose parts to believe and parts to ignore, then it's easy to create a BS justification like you are doing now.

I didn't ignore the question. It was the thing I mentioned that started this conversation.

This question by Kast looks like carefully disguised mudslinging.

--Please clarify your problem with asking a question that you think I did not wanted him to answer.
--Please clarify your problem with players stating that something "rubs them wrong".

1. I think you were using a rhetorical device for the purpose of making GreyICE seem scummy.

2. I only have a problem with it when the person later says that they think the behaviour is neutral.

Kast, I don't think that this discussion is going to lead to us catching scum. From experience I know that arguments that become technical rarely go anywhere and often occur between townies, so I would like to drop it. If there is anything else that you would like me to explain, I will.

I decided to check out the Raivann and Zoraster connection, and I found this:

This post was on Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:19 pm

Raivann
Raivann, upon second inspection is scummy. I feel like he's going for a sort of "hit and run" post style that keeps him under the radar yet active. Without reviewing anything, can you remember anything Raivann has said or what his positions are? No? Me neither, and I just reread his iso. Pretty reluctant to vote

From Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:51 pm

If there was a good case against Raivann, I don't recall seeing it. I isoed you to come across your vote on Raivann, but it's not like that was gold scum hunting. You are the only person to have voted him all game, so I don't really get where you're coming from.

Cognitive dissonance anyone?

Anyway I stopped my exercise of looking at how they could be related after this because I know which one I'd perfer to lynch.

Unvote
Vote Zoraster

[Zdenek]

I'm currently travelling, so I don't have too much time.

@Zd (and diddin sort of): How is that cognitive dissonance? Are you just reading me in iso again with no attempt to find out whether it makes sense in context? Because that second quote was in response to LMP that was in response to my first point. So I wasn't saying that my own case wasn't good. I was saying that BEFORE I made my post that there hadn't been a compelling case.

Looking at your posts in context you present a case on Raivann in the first, and then in the next say that you don't get where LMP is coming from.

Mod and all: I will be V/LA until Wednesday.

I should still be able to check the thread, so if I am needed for something, I should be able to post, but that is not 100% clear to me at the moment.

[Zdenek]

I'm sorry for my absence. I'd hoped to get caught up yesterday, but I couldn't access the internet from the airport I was flying from. I need a day to think about things and I will post tomorrow, but in the meanwhile . . . .

I strongly doubt that Magua is Stark because of his push on diddin yesterday.

I am willing to accept that because of the flavour that LL is cleared (my own knowledge of flavour is minimal, so I really am trusting others here)

I agree with MoI that Twilight Sparkle's use of soft accusations against him is scummy.
MoI, since Zoraster's flip, what are your opinions of Nexus and Dana?

I would guess that Bunnylover isn't Stark because of diddin's attack on her yesterday.

[Zdenek]

I am still working on getting completely caught up with the game.

After some rereading:

Dana:

I see very little scum hunting in Danakillsu's posts. Early in the day, he was guilty of posting pro-town fluff:

raise: DGB For pointing out how stupid it is to self-raise. We all get that you want to tell us you're town and you trust yourself. It doesn't even need to be stated. Now start trying to play the actual game.

Wrong. You are not keeping anything from happening by raising yourself. If we wanted to raise somebody else, we could do so whether you were raising yourself, someone else, or no one. Your job in this game is to convince other people that certain players are town or scum, and a raise of yourself because "you trust yourself and nobody else" doesn't help anyone. Let me put it this way: Do you lynch vote exclusively to see the person you vote for lynched?

I also don't think that he was being honest about his awareness of the statistics of self-raising from the last game. I also feel that he wasted a lot of time talking about self-raising and hascow's post restrictions rather than scum hunting. Additionally, there his jumping at the chance to vote for xvart based on GreyICE's incorrect reading of his posts.

Magua

Because I am leery of people who say "Policy lynching a VI D1 is the smart move" when there's more than one VI.

Why does the presence of more than VI make a difference?

$10 says Hasdgfas is faking his post restriction. It's cute, but it's also nonsensical from a setup POV. Undecided on scumminess; not enough information yet. Nulltell.

LL called him out this already, but I'd like to draw attention to it again. He thinks that someone is faking a post-restriction but calls it a null-tell, which I think is nonsensical.

Nexus:

In his first post, he talks about hascow's post restriction, self-voting to raise, not supporting policy lynches.

Nexus GreyICE vote in 257 was fairly weak. All he says is that GreyICE is grating on him and that his argument with DGB was tedious.

There's this careful defence of diddin:

Opinion on diddin: I agreed with his point on GreyICE in his first post. Not with his townread on DGB though. Disagree with his opinion on Benmage. Vote on Magua is a bit weak, really. Generally, Diddin hasn't really been posting much outside of talking about the VI/vigging debate, and answering some questions. I'm not convinced he should be the first lynch, anyhow.

Ghostlin:

why didn't you have a problem with Magua's 962?

[Zdenek]

Another day. I have little to say about how yesterday ended. I never really got why so many people found Zoraster scummier than Raivann, but after his claim it was obvious he was lying, and had to die.

I know this came after the flip, but considering Benmage's reason for being suspicious of Twilight, I wanted to point it out. I also don't really like that he felt the need to justify the lynching of a lyncher in this manner.

Benmage, what is your read of Ghostlin?

Twilight, could you explain this:

Beyond that, I suspect to find at least one scum in kast/lmp/nexus/mikujin.

I find the arguments by Magua, benmage and MoI against Twilight Sparkle to be the most convincing ones so far, and I agree with them. I also strongly dislike Thor's play for reasons that have been pointed out by others (not reading the thread, not scum hunting), so

Vote Twilight Sparkle
Nominate Thor

[Zdenek]

DGB, would you explain why you think that only townies were on the Raivann wagon?

Ghostlin, I know MoI asked this already, but I don't think you answered: in reference to nominating Raivann, what did you mean by

if she's town, then maybe we can get something out of the deal that's not a bunch of sheep votes.

Magua, I would like you to answer the question I directed to you in post 1049.
Ghostlin, same thing.

Just saying that they're my second-tier scumreads.
...

Second tier is kast/lmp/nexus/mikujin. Those are players without too much content/hard to read/gut pings. I'm not willing to call "you're scum" on any of them, but I expect that at least one of the four is going to end up scum and I'm keeping an alert eye as to which one.

I asked because I wanted to see if you were also suggesting that there is a connection between these players. Your phrasing of: I expect to find one scum in these four, when there is no connection between the players bothers me. It feels like you cared more about making a post that sounded as though you were scum hunting hard, rather than one that properly conveyed what you wanted to say.

The problem comes from the fact that Stark-scum are more likely to turn on the 3rd party wagon for easier lynches then town.

Please explain this sentence.

There is also this,

1. Ghost: Nvm I see you put a BL case up.

The BL case is good. The key arguments that I like are:
a. The has vote. I need to look at that closer to verify but that's pretty damning.
b. Name cop slip (?).
c. Vote fails.

If the earlier posts are like this, then I change my Ghost read to a town read rather then initially seen as scummy.
...
6. I dislike Xvart because he attacks both Ghostlin and BL, but didn't take time to look at the full Ghostlin and BL interactions. This post is awful and makes me think that both addressed players are town while Xvart isn't really scum hunting. Xvart, considering that Ghostlin is attacking BL do you regard one of them to be scum or both?

Vote Ghostlin,

You dislike Xvart for attacking both Ghostlin and BL, but you think that the BL case is good and you vote Ghostlin.

[Zdenek]

Ghostlin, I understand that there are plenty of examples of Raivann sheeping. What I wanted explained was why you felt that nominating Raivann would change his play?

Zdenek

Gets major points for pointing out the dindin-bunnylover connection in his ISO 12.

Overall, I'm getting a decent town-read on him.

For the record, the most likely scum on my wagon is Zdenek (will explain more in another post)

Cognitive dissonance, hydra-schizophrenia, or softly attacking me as being "most likely scum on the wagon" while having a decent town-read on me. You also change your read of Nexus. Magua's also pointed these things out. I feel that you are adopting convenient reads rather than ones you actually believe in.

Locke is pretty much confirmed town, although he could be a serial killer.

Trying to undermine someone who most people are perceiving as almost confirmed town is scummy.

Stray thought as I leave: Kast has been really lurky as well but hasn't been mentioned by anyone. If there is only one scum team he is likely a member.

Why would Kast cease to be scummy if there is more than one scum team?

[Zdenek]

Regarding Twilight Sparkle suggesting that LL is a serial killer: My knowledge of site meta isn't good enough, so I'd like to ask others (and especially Twilight Sparkle) about this: what do you think are the chances that the mods would put a serial killer in the game and a lyncher who's goal is to lynch the SK?

Your extremely careful language on this ("who most people are percieving?") needs some elaboration. What do you think about LL?

I don't think that he's scum.

If kast was scum, but there was a second scumteam, the second scumteam would probably be taking at least some measure to groom his mislynch. The tell that "this lurker is getting a free pass - it seems like there is a significant group of players not interesting in pursuing his lynch" only works with ONE such group. With two, one scumgroup might not want to pressure kast, but the one without him would just see him as another easy-shot townie.

I think this is a wifom argument and that it is just as likely that Kast isn't being pressured because he's declared V/LA, rather than active lurking (for instance).

Also, do you only feel that Kast is scum because he's not being attacked for being V/LA?

Basically I'm saying there is a difference between active lurking and being completely away from the game. A big difference.

So, Kast has been V/LA, and you suggest that could be scum because he's not being attacked, and then you seem to suggest that being away from the game is a reasonable defence.

No elaboration that he even knows what soft accusations MoI is referring.

I don't feel the need to repeat things that have already been said. If you want clarification about something, ask.

Asks us an obvious question before more sheeping language to latch onto MoI. I have no clue if he even understands the case MoI is presenting on us at this point or what. He is just latching onto the reasoning with what feel very much like, empty words.

My question about this:

Beyond that, I suspect to find at least one scum in kast/lmp/nexus/mikujin.

was not obvious. There is a difference between posting a list of people who you think might be scum, and saying that you think there is at least one scum in a list of people. To me the latter suggests that you think there is a connection between the people and that as the players flip town, your confidence that one of the remaining players in the list is scum increases disproportionately compared to that of the other players.

Yes, I saw the inconsistency regarding Zdenek from Twilight Sparkle

Funny, I missed it. What was the inconsistency?

Also noting once again the use of the phrase “softly attacking” more MoI mirroring.

"Noting" that I am mirroring MoI for using standard terminology is mudflinging.


Here are some other reasons I think Twilight Sparkle is scum (as requested by Twilight Sparkle):

I agree with much of what MoI, Benmage and Magua have said, and I am not going to repeat their cases in their entirety, but there will inevitably be significant overlap.

First of all, I see that there is an inconsistency in how TS wants to treat almost confirmed town players: hascow and LL.

With Hascow, Twilight was willing to call him confirmed town immediately.

I thought he was almost certaintly fakeclaiming, but after his shot actually went through, I'm calling him confirmed town.

Now that there is good evidence that we have two scum-teams, what do you think of hascow? Still confirmed town?

On the other hand, with LL, TS insists being careful.

Point out that someone being treated as confirmed town isn't actually confirmed town - and specifically including the criterion to look for that might disprove a LL confirmation - is what we in the business call really fucking important.

So, why the careful attitude with LL, but the cavalier one with hascow?

There's no rule saying that all of your scumreads have to be on a scumteam together. It's sloppy to clear people as town based off of flips that haven't happened yet.

We think Thor has a very large chance of flipping scum, we think Raivann has a fairly large chance of flipping scum, and a scumflip on one virtually confirms the other as town. There's no contradiction here.

In the first paragraph, TS suggests that there we should assume that there is just one scum team, but in the second paragraph, TS argues that a scum flip of either Thor or Raivann would imply that the other is town, which is an argument that requires there be only one scum team.

There is also a conflict in how Twilight views we should treat new players.

@MagnaofIllusion: I've been meaning to ask you about something. How come you attacked GreyICE for accusing you of IIoA early on D1, but never responded to this post of mine?

It rang a small bell for me at the time when you attacked an easier target with a more controversial playstyle but left me alone. Maybe it's because despite GreyICE's rhetorical skills sucking, he rang as so genuinely town from our POV, so I disliked you hammering to him to death.

In that post, Twilight, subtly attacks MoI ("rang a small bell for me") for attacking an easy target.

Here, Twilight explains attacking Shadow and ASOIAF, with the hope of getting reactions out of them.

Not quite argumentative. It wasn't a true argument, it was just random trolling, and I'm of the mindset (apparently the only one) that scum are more primed to be unhelpful to the town and thus more likely to troll.

I over-justified it because if I was right lots of pressure out of nowhere would make shadow-scum slip.

Our original vote on ASOIAF was in part to get a reaction out of a player who'd probably be easy to read under pressure.

As far as lack of scum hunting goes. Twilight has been guilty of wasting time trying to figure out hascow's post restriction, arguing about policy lynching, talking about Hascow's post restriction, posting pictures, appeals to emotion about the state of the hydra.

Here Twilight wastes time talking about the governor ability, but I don't think it was ever followed up on. That makes me feel like this was a purely rhetorical discussion designed to make it seem like they were being active.

I'm going to ask something a bit strange. Do people think that a one-shot governor would be useful for town? Say, on a town read in LYLO who looks lynchable but whom you're sooooo sure was town (which is a double-edged sword, if you're wrong or it )?

Right now, I think the role would mainly have a scum benefit, and even then, only when played at the right time. I'm asking because we're discussing the best use of the role in the Hydra QT. We'll explain more, later.

There was this fluffy waste of time argument with MoI.

That condescending attitude helps no one. Yes, this is a game about reading, but that doesn't mean that it's equally easy, enjoyable, or useful to give us giant walls. If I were to write all of my posts in Pig Latin, it is obvious I could not take recourse in the "this is a written game" defense; but oftentimes slogging through a large wall is equally as annoying as deciphering Pig Latin.

I'm also not too fond of Twilight's rationale for it's early votes.

There was the early vote on Shadow for the following reasons:

you're scummy for Raising without voting and your only justification for self-raising being "a concise way to piss off zoraster."

There's no motivation for either faction. But someone who's scum is more likely to be primed to troll. Especially since this is Shadow's first large game on mafiascum. Scum tend to like to show false bravado, in my experience.

Which is a reason that has already been pointed out as far from convincing.

Considering my view of Thor, I can't fault Twilight for voting Song. However

You don't know what a VI means, so what exactly did you like about the posts of someone most just recommending we policy lynch them? Rav points this out in 209; I am similarly confused.

Vote: A Song of Ice and Fire

the rationale for the vote is poor since Benmage had said quite a bit more, and
it had already been pointed out by Raivann.

I'll comment on the following since Twilight suggested that I didn't understand this argument above.

MoI:

Explain how this:

Despite rolling town. I've been looking forward to this game way too much to not give it my A-game.

As long as your A-game doesn’t involve faking a guilty on someone who ends up Lannister aligned I’m happy to hear this.

Gels with this:

Unraise MoI
Raise Benmage

I’m willing to do this based on past experiences with you Ben. Don’t disappoint me.

Magna replies by saying that he has town read on Benmage, but that he's also seen Benmage fake a guilty result on a town player, which he wasn't happy with. To this TS responds with:

To me, it read like you were taking a snipe at him as a VI and yet you had raised him after your early game rant. Your explanation tells me I read that wrong, but I am still paranoid. Can I get some games you were in with Benmage as a "Pro-Town force"?

Magna provides the links, and criticizes Twilight's accusation that he was taking a snipe at Benmage as a VI.

To me, Twilight's accusation reads as an attempt to drive wedge between Benmage and MoI who's co-operation could be strongly pro-town.

Please point to the exact quote where you think I was swiping at Benmage as a VI. I’d really like to know where you saw that because that’s about as far removed from what I’ve said about Ben as you can get.

The snipe I am talking about is what I originally quoted here. It read like a dig at him because it was a response you gave to ben that wasn't actually needed. Ben was just talking about bringing his A game and you brought up some fail on his part as if he needed a reminder. I don't understand why you would do that unless it was you trying to discredit him. But I have noticed that your playstyle has changed from when we first played in that you like to throw out a lot of these quips at people that makes you sound very judgmental. I'm guessing it is a null tell now, but I don't like it much.

Combine all that with the fact I remembered you were raising benmage despite him not playing up to your standards recently and I saw a contradiction.

Actually as I type this out, I am getting more and more confused as to why you would raise Ben. He doesn't seem like your kind of player. His style is either hit or miss from my experience and as already demonstrated, you look down on players who “miss”. I'm gonna check out these links you have provided, but out of everyone in the game... I'm having a hard time swallowing you raising Benmage. Gut says you did it to either get him on your good side or to go with the flow. Neither is a good thing

TS doesn't read the requested links, and continues to criticize MoI raising Benmage.

"I had this read yesterday" doesn't sit at all well with me. Scum are oftentimes over-focused on consistency over anything else, and that seems awfully much like "hey guys, look, I didn't change my mind." A mijukin townflip casts a serious shadow on dana.

Or it's a townie with a static read from one day to the next. I don't see how a Mikujin town flip could cast doubt on Dana, and view this as a poor attack on Dana.




I can't help but pointing out the irony of TS attacking me for being a lurker/background player after this:

I love it when someone who has gone under the radar mysteriously pops out of the woodworks to defend their lack of contribution when someone mentions their name.

...

...

What are you all looking at me for? *whistles innocently*

Also, your entire case on me is based on the fact that I agree with others about you, which is not a scum tell.

I don't have time to reread the arguments between Feysal and LMP at the moment, so I don't feel comfortable commenting on that issue at the moment.

Mod and all, I will be V/LA until Sunday. I apologize for these frequent absences, but I've been travelling a lot these past three weeks. My schedule calms down after this.

[Zdenek]

I'm back, and will start catching up. One of my flights was delayed by eight hours, do I have less time now than I'd hoped. I'm just going to address some of the points Twilight Sparkle raised against me earlier.

Point One: Inconsistency re: LL, but more importantly, his sidestepping around whether he could consider LL to be third party.

Just because you say something, doesn't make it true. I have never sidestepped on this issue. Here is what I've said about LL:

I am willing to accept that because of the flavour that LL is cleared (my own knowledge of flavour is minimal, so I really am trusting others here)

I don't think that he's scum.

It's precisely because my read on Locke is due to other's knowledge of the flavour that I said

Trying to undermine someone who most people are perceiving as almost confirmed town is scummy.

All of TS's point one is poor logic and rhetoric.

TS, why did you wait to share your argument that LL could be a serial killer in your case against me rather than arguing with people who think that LL is confirmed town?

Point Two: Zdenek’s inconsistency on MoI’s interactions with me

Exhibit C: Post 346, Zdenek says his read of Benmage has weakened, and raises Sparkle.

Zdenek never mentions MagnaofIllusion or Twilight Sparkle afterward beyond moving his raise to Benmage for "liking his observation" (what observation?).

I did not say that my read on Benmage had weakened.

The observation of Benmage that I liked was:

Although pending a further look. I'm pretty confident Sparkle is scum... Why haven't they requested the governor? They gonna throw it away? Sotty and hito are bad players ?!?!?!??!?! Baloney.... I'd want to give it to them, because it should be a doom sentence.

Why didn’t you have a problem with our breaking up Magna’s and Benmage’s protown union BEFORE you’d raised us? Why didn’t you dislike our "soft accusations" of Magna before then?

This implies that his claim to have suspected us for softly attacking Magna and for interrupting the MoI-Benmage lovefest were disingenuous.

Since you are such a fan of post numbers, I'd raised you in post 346.

This

To me, it read like you were taking a snipe at him as a VI and yet you had raised him after your early game rant

wasn't until post 460. Asking MoI how him raising Benmage and being disappointed with him in the past gel was a reasonable question, and I agreed with the criticism of MoI for bringing up the statistical analysis of self-raising from the last game.

So your final claim is false.

What we see in point two is TS misrepresenting the content of my posts and the order of posts in the thread.

I'll answer your questions about this later.

Point Five: Inconsistency regarding Danakillsu

There is no inconsistency; I was attacking your logic.

[Zdenek]

I am currently working on getting caught up. I should finish tomorrow.

Benmage, what is an IDI?

I am inclined to agree with Benmage (or at least with what he was suggesing) that we didn't learn too much from LMP's revelation that he was responsible for CK3's death.

I understand and agree with the parts of the case on Feysal based on his interactions with Xtoxm and Diddin. Combining this with the fact that he hopped on to my wagon for a pathetic (non-) reason, I can see him as being scum.

Do you know with certainity of who's scum/town?

LMP, are you claiming SK?

I generally dislike rhetorical questions of this nature.

(In my somewhat biased opinion, this is a pure scum post--picking out a couple of superficial details that have no relevance to anyone’s alignment, and then failing to reach a conclusion on them--but moving on.)
...
Considering Zdenek’s only other comment on Magua had to do with Cow’s post restriction, this is a useless fake-scumhunting question. Even if Zdenek singled out Ghostlin because Ghostlin agreed with Magua’s post on Raivann...was that the most noteworthy thing to mention in his only catch-up post?

I have found that scum are inclined to make bold assertions with little reason behind them, so I think there is something of value in asking people about the claims they are making. Also, asking a player about why they are being inconsistent and pointing out inconsistencies is not "useless, fake-scum hunting."

To answer the questions in Point 2 of Twilight Sparkle's case: At first I did have a town read on Twilight Sparkle. I liked the fact that they were willing to challenge MoI. I don't think that this is something that scum would be keen to do. However, as their interactions with MoI developed, my read changed. I didn't comment on everything in part because of a lack of time because I've been travelling a lot these past three weeks and because MoI is perfectly capable of taking care of himself.

In post 87, Twilight Sparkle criticized MoI for longwinded statistics talk, and I agreed with this criticism in post 345. In post 341, Twilight Sparkle asks Magna about why he is raising Benmage. I felt that the question was reasonable.

I'd like to quote my 346, which came immediately after 345:

Unraise
It just occurred to me that I don't like the look of the wagon to raise benmage. If I had a stronger read on benmage, I'd be willing to vote for him, but for now
Raise Twilight Sparkle

Notice that I do not say that my town-read on Benmage had weakened. This was the point where I liked the attention that TS had paid to MoI, so I raised them. At this point I also had some concerns about MoI/

However, I did not like TS's snipe at MoI in post 460 or the fact that TS planned to throw the governor ability away, post 376, and I raised Benmage in post 596. I felt that Magna's scumhunting was genuine, and my concerns about him were alleviated.

As far as point 3 is concerned, if people make convincing arguments, I'm going to agree with them, especially in a game that is likely to be (or at the start of the game, expected to be) multiscum because there is no reason for people to fake scum hunting. I was very V/LA at times, and did my best to keep up with the game.

I have followed up on DTMaster, so I don't know why TS is attacking me for not doing that. I can't help that he's been V/LA. Bunnylover is off Benmage's list and is getting plenty of attention from others, so in my limited time, I didn't feel the need to attack her. My read on MoI changed as pointed out above, and Kast was V/LA. TS also takes issue with the fact that I didn't vote immediately, but it should be clear from my posts that I was in the process of catching up.

If anyone wants me to, I'll deal with any accusations in Point 4.

[Zdenek]

Zdenek has responded to every one of TS post saying that is has a negative effect or its just plain scummy. Zdenek been tunneling TS.

No I haven't.

Point 4: Your catch of Zdenek espousing the merits of discussing cow's post restriction and also attacking you for doing the same is a relevant point

Since this was the one point of TS argument that Kast agreed with, I'd like to point out the difference in my discussion of cow's post restriction and Twilight's. I talk about it for one sentence, whereas TS talks about it over several posts: ISO 10, 11, 12. At the moment I have to admit that it's not as bad as I thought, since it all took place on a single day when TS was active.

I would like to hear Feysal's answer to Setael in post 1470. It's pretty much an obvious contradiction concerning whatever he was planning to claim.

To address TS's 1472:

In other words...he asks Ghostlin why he agrees with every point of Magua’s in 926?

I left out a sentence.  Zdenek asks Ghostlin why he doesn’t “have a problem" with Magua‘s 926.  Aside from that question being pure fluff (Magua’s 926 wasn’t particularly noteworthy) and his singling out of Ghostlin rather WTF
...
He doesn’t exactly sheep Magua, but those opinions are fairly similar to those espoused in 926.  And then asks Ghostlin why he didn’t have a problem with that post.

Zdenek, explanation, please.

You didn't just leave out a sentence, you completely misinterpreted my post.

Why is my singling out of Ghostlin "rather WTF"? Had someone else at that point attacked me for using the interactions between players to try to determine their alignments, but not commented on Magua? For some reason Ghostlin ignored Magua's post, and I find this scummy because scum doesn't need to determine the alignments of players, and so they might not read everyone as carefully as they might read others. The fact that you are pressing this as a point against me is bizarre.

Regarding LL: I missed that quote of yours about him being a dog in his service. However, I believe that you still haven't answered my question:

what do you think are the chances that the mods would put a serial killer in the game and a lyncher who's goal is to lynch the SK?

Just one thing.  Zdenek, are you saying that when you saw Sotty’s post attacking MoI’s raise, you actually thought for yourself, “Gee, Sotty is making MoI look bad with soft attacks"?  That was your personal thought process?

I felt that Magna's and Benmage's cooperation could be very pro-town and I viewed that post as an attempt to to drive the two of them apart.

Okaaaaay...so, your stance on danakillsu is: he’s not scumhunting, but if the person he tunneled on day one (when he “wasn’t scumhunting") flips town, you can’t see how that would reflect negatively on dana? Have I got that straight?

I don't think that Dana being wrong about Mikujin would reflect particularly negatively on him. There were reasons to vote Mikujin and Dana wasn't the only vote on him that day.

I’ve never played with Zdenek before.  Do you have town and scum meta on him, for comparison’s sake?

My wiki is almost up to date. The only game that isn't on there is this one and some of the in progress games haven't been moved to completed.

For example, our first point is not just "inconsistency." It is that Zdenek is calling us scummy for holding an opinion on Locke that he, logically, must hold.

You have to completely misinterpret my posts for the premises of your argument to be correct.

TS, do you think that there is a town-reason to fake a post-restriction?

[Zdenek]

I've read the wiki, but based on that and people's opinions, it seems inconclusive whether Littlefinger could be Lannister or not. I don't have an objection to his choice to investigate Kast: one of the uses for his role that I can think of is the potential to verify people's claims later on and I could see someone (fake-)claiming to have investigated Kast night one. However, the claim is still one that would be easy to fake. Based on what I've read, I agree with others that it would make little sense for the mods to provide this role as a fake-claim, so I am inclined to believe that it is actually his role. I am not sure of his alignment because I can see the value in telling the truth about your role, regardless of alignment, if it is "Lannister enough," to avoid being caught by a flavour cop later (in case there is one in the game). I'll be willing to vote Feysal, if no more support for a TS lynch is forthcoming.

[Zdenek]

Zdenek,

Please comment specifically on the connections Feysal has to diddin and Xtoxm. What is your take on that, disregarding the claim for now.

I agree with this part of the case on Feysal. I think that it is quite possible that he was trying to distance himself from diddin; he called diddin scum a few times and demonstrated a reluctance to vote for him. Also, I think the fact that he mentioned Xtoxm's "good idea" is a bit strange, and I can see a scum trying to help their lurking buddy out by pointing out his contributions.

[Zdenek]

Thor, please explain what you mean by "logic loops?"

If it's just faulty logic that you don't like, I think you should look carefully at the crown jewels, points one and two, of Twilight Sparkle's case on me.

[Zdenek]

Hi all,
I'm about 85% convinced Zdenek is scum. I'd like to hear him claim before we enter the limited discussion phase. I have one pending question to the mod; it's unlikely to affect evaluation of Zdenek's claim.

@Magua/Zdenek-
You both explicitly stated you'd switch to Feysal to prevent a No Lynch, but didn't follow through on your promise (there may be a couple others I'm missing). Explain.

Kast, I'll claim my name, I don't see a pro-town reason to claim my ability now.

I'm Tywin Lannister.

I would have hammered Feysal had it been necessary to prevent a no lynch, but it wasn't, so I didn't vote for him.

The case on Raivann based on his meta seems reasonable to me.

Thor has not answered my questions about the "logic loops" that he's claimed that I've made, and yesterday he said that he thought I was town and voted me in hopes of preventing a Feysal lynch. Also,

Hi all,
I'm about 85% convinced Zdenek is scum.

Really? Now? Meh.

As much as it pains me to side with Kast, I'll clarify that I don't like his logic, but I am leaning for a Zdenek lynch today.

You say meh to someone who thinks that I am scum, which appears to agree with your feelings, and then you vote for me, providing no reason, when yesterday you thought I was town?

Vote Thor

[Zdenek]

I am Tywin Lannister. I become night kill immune if Tyrion Lannister dies.

Btw-
Thor has a good point. The town response to someone with a guilty on you is to call them out and vote them for it; more so if the person with the guilty is one of your scum suspects. Zdenek's "I'm going to try deflecting attention to someone else" smacks of caught scum trying to avoid an inevitable lynch.

That is bs. I was pretty sure why you found me suspicious (because I am aware of my role) and that in no way implies that I should automatically vote you.

Thor, answer my question, so that I know that you weren't just arbitrarily accusing me of things yesterday.

[Zdenek]

I am Tywin Lannister. I become night kill immune if Tyrion Lannister dies.

a.) why weren't you pushing a chesskid lynch d1

b.) why did you wait on claiming this

c.)

a.) Chesskid didn't claim Tywin Lannister, he just claimed that his character had also been Hand of the King.

b.) In hopes that I could havedrawn a night kill after claiming Tywin Lannister.

[Zdenek]

Softclaiming a Lannister Hand for A Storm of Swords is softclaiming Tywin or Tyrion. If you really were Tywin, and you KNEW of Tyrion's existance, you'd know chess was Tyrion.

Then why would I have been pushing for his lynch?

So...you didn't claim...to try to draw a night kill...after claiming?

I claimed to be Tywin before full claiming.

[Zdenek]

Thor, I would like it if you could point out the logical loops that you've said I was making, so that I can see if you were just making up a reason to vote for me yesterday or not.

b.) In hopes that I could havedrawn a night kill after claiming Tywin Lannister.

If the claim is true, then you were night immune all of D2. However, instead of acting in a manner to draw NKs, you buddied all the active/town-leader players. Behavior doesn't really match with the claim.

I only just claimed Tywin. I was hoping to drawn a nk after that. I don't really see myself as a target for night kills under usual circumstances.

[Zdenek]

*points to tongue*
*rubs belly*

Here is flavour:

The quote in italics is "Nothing is won so long as we have enemies in the field." You are Tywin Lannister, Lannister Aligned, leader of the House Lannister and one of the most influential men in the Westeros. You will persevere until all your enemies are vanquished. Remember a Lannister always pays his debts.

It's strange that Zdenek didn't interact with chesskid at all.
. . .
Zdenek didn't even nameclaim D2. There was no drawback to him nameclaiming day 2, at all.

Chesskid was being erratic and I didn't know if he was soft-claiming or just making something up, and on day one I didn't feel like revealing myself to find out.

On Day Two, I was V/LA a lot and when I got back I was under pressure from TS. I didn't think that claiming anything was going to do me any good.

Let's call it a made up reason, and see where you go from there. Fire away.

I just want everyone to be clear on that.

Zdenek, I understand your role claim so far, but if you could clarify a few points for me:

1) Is your role "Modified Kill Immune"?
2) Is there anything else about your role to claim, or is that it?

1) My role PM says modified NK immune.
2) There is nothing else about my role to claim.

@Zdenek - why didn't you say this as "I became nk immune when chesskid died" or something to that effect? Why did you state it as if it hadn't happened yet.

The way that I phrased it has nothing to do with whether or not CK was dead already or not.

The main thing I noticed was his extensive case on Bunnylover, his secondary scumread, and his lack of a case on Feysal.

At least now it is completely clear that you haven't been paying attention to the thread at all.

I'm going to have to find a better place for my vote than on Thor.

Unvote

Read the flipping thread. He's lying and I've said as much. He claimed to be a bulletproof that's trying to draw NKs, but day 2 he didn't try to draw NKs.

I only said that I was trying to draw an NK after name claiming Tywin.

I think that Locke is suggesting that Shadow's post indicates that he knew the alignments of me and Chesskid or that the idea of me being untouchable after claiming BP yesterday is foolish.

Point B also goes along with "why didn't you play out loud/obvtown/hint power d2 once you knew you were unkillable, or outright claim power."

No, it doesn't. Saying that someone would be untouchable, and saying that they should have claimed a power are not the same things.

I still agree with Twilight Sparkle case on Zdenek.

Humour me and tell me which parts you agree with.

[Zdenek]

@Zdenek: I already answered that, do you want me to re answer it?

I could go through TS entire case and pick each point that I like, but basically I would be copying and pasting their case.

So your answer is that you agree with all of it?

[Zdenek]

I mostly agree with Magua's list of people not to lynch today. I'd like to add that I don't think BL is scum becuase of this.

@MOI: The reason you are voting Zoraster is not the reason others are voting him. The reason others are voting him, you have said only strengthening your read/vote on him.
Here the situation I see:
If we lynch Zoraster and he flips town, what happens to Raivann? Raivann still will be lynched because his post have been bad and scummy (I think one has been good). Isn't that right?
If we lynch Zoraster and he flips scum, what happens to Raivann? Raivann is lynched because the FOS Buddy - Vote Townie theory is strengthen. Isn't that right?
If we lynch Raivann and he flips town, what happens to Zoraster? The theory of FOS Buddy - Vote Townie is thrown out the window and scum now have to come up with another mislynch.
If we lynch Raivann and he flips scum. what happens to Zoraster? The theory of FOS Buddy - Vote Townie is strengthen and Zoraster is lynched due to it.

The most logical sense is to lynch Raivann.

This post feels that Bunnylover genuinely believed that Raivann is scum, which is definitely townish. On top of that, I don't see either of them as being Starks and if they were on the same scum team together, I doubt Bunny would have pushed Raivann's
lynch when it would have been easy to push Zoraster's.

On the other hand, I am less convinced that Raivann should be off the table, I agree that he is unlikely to be Stark, but the meta-case on him seems ok and he definitely seemed to change his opinion of Shadow opportunistically. I'd be happier with this line of reasoning if I trusted TS, who's making this case.

I also think that his case on Nexus is fine.

VOTE: Raivann. If you need me to elaborate, sure, but I've been fairly against him for the same reasons Xtoxm flipped scum.

Could you? and Shadow, what is your current opinion of Raivann?

But that would mean Tyrion is confirmed as in-the-game to Tywin. And confirmed town, at that.

Tyrion Lannister confirmed as Lannister and in the game seems okay to me. Why should there be a problem with it? I don't follow the argument you gave.

Benmage, this might be silly, but could you please clarify if Setael is actually mod-cleared.

Percy Ghostlin Andrius

I'm good with either lynch, a Zoa or a Raviann lynch. Their play has been pretty close to identical, either active lurking, or "I really believe this person is scummy, but let me vote someone else right over HERE..." kind of FoS.

I don't like that Ghostlin was so indifferent to who we lynched on day one.

Do you know with certainity of who's scum/town?

Ghost asked this question of MoI. It's obnoxious and could have been distancing.

Wait, what? Chess was Lancaster aligned though; the only other flip was Stark, and I'd think you'd have a hard time convincing me the mafia iced one of their own.

The remaining possibilities are these: (Ordered in how feasible I like them.)

1) You are scum, soft claiming Vig/SK.
2) There's a protection role/RB role in the house (which, in that case, protection role, do not claim), and you are a town aligned Vig.
3) See above, replace the word vig with SK.
4) 2 or 3, only Starks didn't kill/can't kill last night (not likely).
5) More than one mafia group in this game and one of them was blocked from acting last night. (This is a combo of 1, you're soft claiming Vig, and telling the truth in a way we'd like to hear.)

I'm not sure how I feel about this yet.

Scum often post lists like this. Logical statements that cover all their bases, but fail to provide any real analysis, plus fence-sitting.

I feel that Ghostlin posted very little actual content in the time he was here. In his catch-up post covering 33 pages, he attacks Raivann for some reasonable reasons, but felt the need to add the question about how would Raivann know who the VT''s are? As though scum would be given that information. The rest of the catch-up post is underwhelming: fence-sitting on Chesskid, commenting that DGB's willingness to be lynched over hascow's post restriction is pro-town, attacking Magua for his Zoraaster vote.

His other major contribution was his case on Bunnylover and while I surely see reasons to attack BL, my overall read on her is definitely town. I also perceive her as an easy person to attack. I also do not buy his reason to nominate her: that we will get something other than a bunch of sheep votes.

Twilight Sparkle
I am still suspicious of them. Here are somethings that I would like to add to what I've said before. They said

MoI's suspicions have had a logical townie like progression. It started early yesterday with his response to my questioning and has just built from there. Post 1170 is detailed reasoning for his suspicion and it reads genuine to me.

But not too long after that they said called MoI

The player with whom I have reservations the size of a small continent and whose every post raises yet another alarm bell

It surprises me that they would have no reservations about a vote coming from a player about whom they felt like that.

Also, look at this from TS.

Sadly this means I'm probably wrong about MagU because I seriously doubt there's two scum in {Benmage, Magua, MoI}. Maybe separate faction scum, but I don't see two Starks blatantly agreeing SO HARD in the thread. Meh, backburner it for now, if another non-Lannister faction flips I'll pick up my shiny toy again.

As alluded to yesterday, some of the passion has gone out of the zdenek wagon of late. We'll see what happens when he's actively scumhunting and not just responding to point we're raising. For now:

Vote: Raivann

In the first paragraph, decides to stop attacking because Magua is unlikely to be Stark, and then votes Raivann. But later we have:

2) I personally think there are either two scumteams or a serial killer, because MoI was an unlikely vig shot. Also, I'm convinced that Raivann is scum right now, and he apparently doesn't fit well as a Stark. Normally, I wouldn't base my theory of the set-up on reads, but his Feysal vote and dodging my pressure to explain it was a scumclaim. Like I said yesterday, Raivann is ridiculously transparent. Unfortunately, that means MoI's flip no longer clears us, but at least Raivann's will.

So Raivann is not Stark, but he is still a worthy lynch.

I am willing to admit that both of these issues can be explained away by the fact they are a hydra, and it is doubtful that there is the will to lynch them, so I am not going to push this lynch today. I am not willing to clear them completely of being Stark just because of MoI's flip. Since they are a strong group of players, their lynch was unlikely, and on top of that both MoI and Twilight are reasonable targets for nightkills, so there would have been a definite benefit if they distanced from each other, and the risk of it ending in a lynch was low.

Vote Andrius

[Zdenek]

@Zdenek - nothing for Nexus though?

I think there is a good case for Nexus being scum, I think it's essentially covered in Magua's post (except I don't think he mentioned the fact that Nexus said that diddin would be a bad day one lynch, which could have been one scum buddy softly protecting another), but my vote can only be in one place.

[Zdenek]

So what does modified mean? Modified with a nightkill?

I assume that the modification concerns how I become NK immune.

I really don't understand why the possibility for me to guess who Chesskid was claiming to be day one is such a big deal.

TS, regarding the first two quotes. In the first you say that MoI's "suspicions have a logical townie-like progression," and that his reasoning for his suspicion "reads as genuine." Then in the second post you say that you have reservations about him "the size of a small continent" and that each of his posts "raises yet another alarm bell." If a player about whom I felt like that was suspicious of me, I would not be alright with that player's vote or think that their suspicion reads as genuine, and I don't really see how it is possible. Their suspicion itself would be raising alarm bells. Frankly, the fact that you are asking me about this seems scummy because it seems so clear to me that I feel you are feigning incomprehension.

Were we playing the same game yesterday? There were times we were fighting for our lives and for a nice chunk of the day we were the leading vote getter. I'd say our lynch was very possible yesterday, not at all unlikely as you want to claim. Also, if we're your top scum read you should keep pushing us. This whole “they won't be lynched” just smells like crap to me and is a really weak sauce argument when you look at how yesterday went. This is also contrary to your point tying us to MoI. So, what gives?

You were never fighting for your lives. Your wagon never grew beyond L-5 and if I recall correctly, there was no one who wasn't on it who indicated that they would be willing to vote for you. I will keep pointing out the things that you do that I think are scummy in the hopes that other people will notice, but there is absolutely no reason for me to sit my vote on you, when I can make it useful elsewhere.

And that didn't rattle your brain with who could it be?? Thinking Tyrion a non town entity?

After a little searching I guessed that Chesskid would be Tyrion, unless he was just bs'ing. I figured that since he is a "Lannister" that he'd be town aligned. Chesskid was never in danger of being lynched and I felt that his day one play was townish. Again, I am really not sure why people are focussing on this fact. I didn't see any reason to out myself or Chesskid's names or roles on Day one.

Since Andrius will be governed,

Unvote

With Nexus role-bloking Raivann and the Stark kill being blocked night one:

Vote Raivann

[Zdenek]

Zdenek's last series of votes can be translated as such:
"Andy is town and gaining popularity so I need to unvote, and vote the easy wagon."

What is the point in voting for someone who's lynch Benmage will govern?

I really don't understand why the possibility for me to guess who Chesskid was claiming to be day one is such a big deal.

Because its something you would have done as town.

So I go to wiki for the books look up past Hands of the King, and I determine that Chesskid is either claiming to be Tyrion or Harys Swyft, to me they both seem like they could be Lannister aligned, and what do I do with this information?

I agree with DGB that Setael is scummy for reasons in addition to Mikujin's lack of activity and his vote on DGB, which reads like he's appeasing the town.

I don't see the suspicion on Twilight. I disagree with what MoI said about the ISO posts not containing scumhunting. I can see the V/LA of 2 of the heads being the reason for the low activity D1 (especially if they're wanting to all weigh in before posting - I for one would find it annoying if they were constantly coming in and contradicting themselves because they didn't all agree with what was posted in the first place.)

Here Setael says that she doesn't understand the case on Twilight, but goes on to excuse Twilight for their low activity, which actually suggests that she did understand the suspicion on Twilight and chose to defend them.

Where's nexus? He's plenty active in the game he's nodding that I'm in.

I really hate these sorts of attacks; they are lazy and draw attention to a player for something that isn't really scummy.

I haven't changed my mind. He's still my #1 scum read, but something I read in his post made me decide to put him in my pocket until tomorrow.

Maybe you already answered it, but what was the thing in his post that made you want to delay his lynch?

LMP, are you claiming SK?

A pointless rhetorical question.

Additionally, I feel that her attack on Bunnylover is poorly reasoned. A great deal of it is based on Bunnylover "playing the VI card" and while I agree that is true, I do not feel that the case actually represents an attempt to determine what Bunnylover's motivations have been, but is just an attempt to exaggerate certain characteristics of Bunnylover's that could be interpreted as scummy.

[Zdenek]

Based on DGB's post, I'm going to assume that we are considering Thor to be the scummiest, and assuming that we are going with Magua's plan to deal with the competition, I won't be voting him under the assumption that he'll be chosen as one of the champions.

Actually Dana is very likely town due to Kasts results.

You're assuming no vanilla scum?

I'm operating under the assumption that the real SK decided to no kill last night, and would like to have another chance to be role-blocked.

Vote Setael

[Zdenek]

[quote="Pops']
The REAL sk is supposed to beat down the PR stuffed mafia AND kill bulletproof "townie" zdenek in 2 man endgame.

HOW DOES THAT MAKE ANY SENSE AT ALL

How does no killing as scum when you're down 234234 member make ANY SENSE AT ALL.
[/quote]
Perhaps it's not an SK, but another scum team that we haven't had any flips from yet, or perhaps there are other roles that successfully stopped the other kill, but whatever it is, since we have a role-blocker, there is no reason not to give this one more night.

[Zdenek]

The mass-claim either broke this game or there is something unexpected going on, and the lack of kills makes me suspect the latter. However, since there is no evidence for it, I am still behind Benmage's plan for the day.

[Zdenek]

Since we need to reduce the number of NK's, SK hunting is what we need to do:

Vote LL

Aside from Magua's conclusion through PoE that I am Stark, I agree with his analysis of the situation.

[Zdenek]

So you don't disagree with any of his various town reads that narrow you down to being scum, you agree with those, you just want the conclusion that you're scum to be ignored at the end.

He didn't arrive at his conclusion through town reads.

If you want to know the specific parts of it that I am not in agreement with they would be the assumption that Starks don't have any vanilla goons and that Magna wasn't bussing TS.

[Zdenek]

We're using different terminology, I call anything that brings you to believe that a certain person is probtown as "townread".

I feel like I shouldn't have had to prompt you to hear what you didn't agree with. Or prompt you again to explain why you think your assumptions are superior to Magua's in those two cases. Or prompt you to give a decent defense since you're on the chopping block.

I'm not saying that the assumption the Starks have a goon is superior to the one that they don't, but just that I don't think that it is a good assumption to use to clear someone. However, I've decided that Dana is cleared, see below.

I've already explained what I think of Magna's push against TS: TS is a hydra of skilled players that will be naturally hard to lynch, so attacking them is fairly safe.

As far as me being Stark goes: I was suspicious of Diddin, Magna and Setael fairly early on. I admit that my read of Magna changed, but I really thought that his co-operation with benmage was pro-town. I can't stop you if you want to attribute this to bussing or distancing.

Finally because of Nexus' presumably role-blocking me and their being two kills the night he died, I can't be the SK. I am guessing that the night before there was overkill on Kast, which makes sense. Although, now as I think about it, since Setael was presumably investigation immune, this line of reasoning clears Dana.

The bottom line is that I can't be SK, so on the off chance that two Starks remain, I would be a bad lynch.

[Zdenek]

As for the N4 kill, can anyone tell me why they think Nexus blocked Zdenek instead of the super obv-scum (and probably immune to night actions) Setael?

I think Nexus would have blocked me again, since he had a good reason to suspect that it would work again, since it had apparently worked the night before, and it makes sense for him to keep doing what was expected of him to reduce the confusion now.

[Zdenek]

Before we do anything, I think we should do a complete list of every role, both flipped and claimed, and make sure we consider it carefully. I remember several people in the dead thread pointing out that Macavitar's fakeclaim made no sense alongside the Kingsguard mechanic in ACoK, but no-one in-thread bothered to look back and fully consider the implications.

LL is lazy scum for suggesting pro-town things, but not doing them.

[Zdenek]

HE SUBTLY TRIES TO MAKE US GUESS IF HE'S SK OR SCUM, WHICHEVER WE DON'T WANT TO LYNCH.

This is ridiculous. I have explained why I can't be the SK and why I am not Stark.

[Zdenek]

Zdenek, what do you think about my plan?

I am opposed to any plan where I end up being lynched.

[Zdenek]

Responding to a prod.

I don't think that we should discount the possibility that Magua is a Stark. The xvart kill only makes sense if the Starks knew that xvart was a power role. Diddin was very scummy day one, so I think that Magua could be a Stark watcher, who watched xvart kill diddin day one, and then decided to claim the kill for himself after killing xvart N2.

[Zdenek]

Unvote
Vote Magua

[Zdenek]

Dana is confirmed town.

[Zdenek]

That game was fantastic. Your setup was interesting, and I had fun playing it despite the fact that my lynch was scheduled since day three.

[Zdenek]

ZDENEK
Besides for your shit play, that Tywin Lannister claim was bollocks. In order for you to become bulletproof when Tyrion dies, the mods would therein confirm that Tyrion is, in fact, in the game and as town. Yet you argue that you're too dumb (or whatever) to realize that the only other Lannister that was ever a Hand of the King in the series is Tywin and Tyrion. Oh, that kind of rules it out. And you obviously didn't treat chesskid like confirmed town. Town would take the initiative. You had none. You flipped scum. No surprises

The only thing that I regret about the claim is not saying that it made me a 1 or 2 shot bulletproof; it was good enough that my lynch was governed later.

[Zdenek]

Zdenek, the number of bullets you can withstand is NOT the issue. The bulletproof thing was enough; but the fact you should have gotten a confirmed town guy read, and you didn't.
Failure to trust a confirmed town = FAILSCUM.

If CK3 had ever been in danger of being lynched, I'd see your point, but he wasn't.