Mini 1126 - Game over - Was Averagely Suspicious saved?

[Snake Eyes]

Hi everyone!

If you're scum, feel free to confess right now, thanks.

[Snake Eyes]

The game hasn't even started and I'm already lurking!

[Snake Eyes]

They're nothing alike, man. Your avatar is closer to Ashblade's than mine

[Snake Eyes]

Russell looks nothing like Snake's guy (which I'm assuming is named Snake)

It's Snake Eyes from 999 on the DS, a pretty good visual novel.

Scum are probably too busy hiding in their hideout to want to play early.

Also this. Most people have responded in thread after the voting for early start started, so the scum probably don't have daytalk and don't want to start early.

[Snake Eyes]

Yup. On my count, 11 people have posted since then(everyone except mockingjaye and Erratus Apathos, do correct me if I'm wrong), that should be enough to start assuming everyone voted yes. So everyone probably didn't.

[Snake Eyes]

AtE isn't a scum tell

He basically groveled for the town's forgiveness after an L-1 vote that approximately two players even commented on. He invoked being a newer player and apologized profusely for "ruining" the game after a more experienced player asked him why he skipped the Newbie game queue. He's trying to be deferential and cover his bases all at the same time.

That's slightly more than the average AtE.

It was a ridiculous post but not entirely unexpected, as he's obviously used to a significantly different type of mafia. I'm more concerned with you going after all the really obvious targets and generally attacking bad play rather than finding scum.

VOTE: Bill McQuill


Subgenius' case on Hiraki doesn't feel unnatural to me. Hiraki has yet to explain why he didn't explain his FoS in the first post. It's perfectly plausible to mix Barry and Bill because of the similar usernames, but the main point of the issue seems to be that he didn't provide reasoning in the first post.

So Erratus is town yay let's move on.

As far as I know, the only people that know whether or not this is true are Erratus and scum...

I'm pretty sure this post is the equivalent of roleclaiming scum if you're not in a newbie game.

Unvote

Vote:Subgenius

Is this some scumtell I'm unaware of?

[Snake Eyes]

Subgenius' case on Hiraki doesn't feel unnatural to me. Hiraki has yet to explain why he didn't explain his FoS in the first post. It's perfectly plausible to mix Barry and Bill because of the similar usernames, but the main point of the issue seems to be that he didn't provide reasoning in the first post.

Hey Mr. Eyes, why do you feel the need to defend subgenius?

Wasn't particularly trying to defend subgenius. Initially your case on subgenius seemed to have potential, so I went back and looked through his posts, and found that they weren't as scummy as Bill's, so I wrote that as an explanation. This was before his "townreads are scummy" tirade though, so he looks somewhat scummier now.

1) How do you reconcile these two statements, and what is your impression of the writer after making them?

I'm sorry. I know I should have started in a newbie game, and I know I look extremely scummy right now. I apologize that me feeling like I could just jump right into a mini game could ruin this game for all of you. Honestly, I don't have much I could possibly say in defense of myself right now. I know no one will believe me, but I truly didn't count the votes, nor did it occur to me how serious my voting would be. I also did not realize that I was opening up an opportunity for mafia to throw open the floodgates and blitz a mislynch. But practice makes perfect. And you gotta learn from your mistakes. And I've learned all right. .-. But that's truly all I can say. I'm not going to sit here and beg you not to lynch me. I know I look scummy as all get out. I know what I'd think if I saw anyone else do that. But if I'm getting lynched, I wanna go out on a good note, and I truly do apologize for plunging on in here without a clue as to what I was doing. >.<

I'm an aggressive player. I like to throw my FoS's out there swiftly.

Bonus points: Find what's missing.

2) Rob has a meta of being an extremely active poster, except for the last game I was in where he was scum (Mini: 1105). Do you think that his gameplay here is similar, and is that a good reason to suspect him?

3) I have a one-shot power that allows me to choose three players, and one of them will be vigged at random. If I had to submit right now, whose names should I submit (brief explanation would be nice)?

1. wikkiden reads newbie/VI more than any specific alignment. I'm content to let him be and see if I can get a read on him later.

2. Didn't read that game, but Rob doesn't seem to be lurking here. I'm not particularly keen on meta tells or policy lynching a lurker, for that matter.

3. Top 2 candidates are Bill and subgenius, not just because they're scummy but also because lots of people have taken a stance on them. Some candidates for slot 3 are wikkiden and our two lurkers.

[Snake Eyes]

There is no rule that says we can't end the day early, the deadline is there to make surecwe don't go too long but if a consensus is reached earlier, there is nothing wrong with that.

For one, we don't have a consensus, and for another, we have 2 players who have not contributed anything at all. Ending the day would be very premature right now. Town generally benefits from more discussion anyway, so I don't get why you're suggesting a lynch already when day 1 has been going on for less than a week.

Seems like that would be beneficial from my point of view whether I was town or scum. Scum out of a sense of self preservation, town out of hopes that more time=more info=more chances to find scum, not to mention avoiding a ML.

I don't like that you're even entertaining the notion that you're scum. Why would you do that if you were town?

I don't know how many game he has played on the old mafiascum site and you really can't check. plus I didn't think I had to check his game log when I saw he was here since 2008.

but back to the other question, town can act however he wants but to me he seems like he is trying to earn town points when he makes comments like this

1. Okay. But what's your point? Are you honestly going to lynch him on the basis of that?

2. The use of the word town makes me quite wary of a slip, me spies.

Agreed on point 2. Similarly:

they are my opinion, if it's WIFOM, oh well, WIFOM isn't even a scumtell anyway.

in my mind I use what is scummy to me, and those posts were scummy to me.

This makes me think Rob is being especially wary of committing scumtells, so he's scum as well.

[Snake Eyes]

There is no rule that says we can't end the day early, the deadline is there to make surecwe don't go too long but if a consensus is reached earlier, there is nothing wrong with that.

For one, we don't have a consensus, and for another, we have 2 players who have not contributed anything at all. Ending the day would be very premature right now. Town generally benefits from more discussion anyway, so I don't get why you're suggesting a lynch already when day 1 has been going on for less than a week.

yeah I agree there are more people who need to participate, but I am not going to not vote to lynch the person I think is scum, because we are waiting to get those people to talk. and just because a person is at L-2 it doesn't mean that he will be lynched quickly.

You weren't just voting him though. You were actively campaigning him and even suggesting that a lynch might not be a bad idea. Getting sub to L-1 would not have been the end of the world, but given that there's already been one accidental L-1 vote in the game, probably not a great idea either.

using Zito's theory about errant, he declared errant town because his wagon grew quickly, I am not a big fan of using speed of a wagon to mean anything, but assume that train of thought is valid, than Sub's wagon was slower to develop and people are trying hard to start sub-wagons or direct attention from him, wouldn't that be a sign that this is most likely a scum wagon?

"I don't believe x is correct, but assuming it is, wouldn't that imply y?" sounds like a really intellectually dishonest argument. But let's entertain it anyway.

First off, I don't believe anyone can consider EA anywhere close to confirmed town. I took PZ's statement to mean that he's probably town, and also that rather than pursuing some pre-game statement that wasn't even a scumtell, we should probably look at the people on the wagon that reached L-1 really fast. Second, your mangled logic can be used to support the wagon on Bill or anyone else as well for that matter - every other wagon could be misdirected from the true scum.

I'm annoyed that Bill seems to have lurked his way out of suspicion. I still have a strong scum read on him, and him lurking isn't helping.

I don't like that you're even entertaining the notion that you're scum. Why would you do that if you were town?

Just to point out the WIFOMness of it. There are reasons for both town and scum to want to delay a lynch in my situation, so it's useless to draw conclusions from the fact that I would like to delay my lynch. If I wrote that only a townie would want to delay the lynch, that would be blatantly untrue, and I wouldn't expect anyone to take it seriously.

That's not the point though. Your response indicates an anti-town mindset. A townie would think and say that they shouldn't be lynched because they're town, whereas scum would be more inclined to say that it's a null-tell when they defend themselves. What's more, the way you said it makes it even more suspicious. You're saying that from your point of view, it would be beneficial whether you were town or scum. Which implies that you actually considered it from both alignments, something you should only need to do if you were actually scum.

[Snake Eyes]

if by actively campaigning for it, you mean asking hiraki to explain his actions of defending subs or calling out Zito for advocating a subs wagon but refusing to be on it and now distracting from it with a vote on someone who isn't lurking, it is someone who clearly isn't playing and has now asked for a replacement, than yeah I am guilty of campaigning for his lynch

Good grief. Periods. Use them.

Anyway, the whole campaigning thing was more from of an impression I got from when you said that lynching early wouldn't always be a bad idea. When you say something like that, the implication is that you're okay with a lynch right now or soonish, whether you mean to imply that or not. I went back and looked and fair enough, I suppose you weren't actively campaigning.

[Snake Eyes]

3. Top 2 candidates are Bill and subgenius,

not just because they're scummy but also because lots of people have taken a stance on them.

Some candidates for slot 3 are wikkiden and our two lurkers.

More people taking stances = that person is more likely scum? I fail to see how that has any bearing on someone's alignment at all.

This was in response to GreyICE's hypothetical power role. And it doesn't have any bearing on said person's alignment, but it will have a lot of meaning to everyone else's alignment, if everyone has stated an opinion on said person.

Snake Eyes is another scumread. He has "a strong scum read" on Bill for "going after all the really obvious targets." But Bill was the biggest wagon when SE voted for him, so wouldn't Bill himself be the most obvious target?

"Nice job" using quotation marks from different sentences in different posts to prove a point you want to make instead of one that actually exists! Here's the full sentence:

I'm more concerned with you going after all the really obvious targets and generally attacking bad play rather than finding scum.

Most of my scumread comes indeed from the last part that you left out and his subsequent lurking. It looked like he was making just a cursory attempt at scumhunting by pointing out the mistakes and bad plays people made and then pretended they were all some major scumtells, when they really looked more like newbie mistakes.

As for me going for the biggest wagon, is that supposed to be scummy? I voted him the first chance I got after the game started. Moreover, am I still supposed to be going after the most obvious target? Seems to me that would be subgenius, and I would much prefer a Bill lynch over sub lynch. This is a bad case.

@GreyICE
I would expect you to include Bill in this list. What's your current read on him?

Uh, he's fairly town to obvtown?

I get more of a null out of a lot of people than Bill. Why am I including him, again?

Not too long ago, you considered one of his posts the scummiest post in the game. Weird change of attitude.


There's also a pretty big problem with EA's case on wikkiden in #267. I was going to wait until wikkiden responded but as it looks like he's about to be replaced, here it is: Although wikkiden says in #131 that there are 6 other people voting for him, there are only 5. He either miscounted the votes and tried to quicklynch - which is possible I suppose - or more likely, that was a reactionary post to Hiraki and he only had a general idea that several people had voted for EA. The point being that even though his actions are questionable, I think it's a foregone conclusion to consider that a blatant lie.

Speaking of blatant lies, and now we get to why I actually bothered to explain all of that at such length(bolding mine):

3. wikkiden. His most recent post was better, but since then it's been radio silence, which is what I'd expect from a player who's trying to distance himself from a massive emotional apology earlier in the game.

There's also the contradiction that EA pointed out.

In your haste to cast suspicion on wikkiden, you seem to have forgotten that you were the first person to actually notice that there were 5 people, not 6 in post #135. You of all people should have known that the contradiction EA pointed out was not a contradiction at all.

Bill needs more votes.

Hayker can also die. He's sneaking under the radar big time and at this point seems to be deliberately avoiding saying anything of substance.

[Snake Eyes]

It was scummy for you to vote the most obvious target for "going after all the really obvious targets and generally attacking bad play rather than finding scum."

So it's the perceived hypocrisy that's your issue? Seems like a pretty petty point to me but fair enough.

I take it you have more reason to suspect wikkiden than you wrote earlier since you're still voting for him? Or do you disagree with me on EA's catch?

[Snake Eyes]

Yes I am, cause I am on town's side and ihave caught 2 scum already

Interesting. After GreyICE says that you're wishy-washy as scum, you're suddenly certain of your scumreads. Which 2 specifically?

I'm liking the wagon on Rob a lot.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: RobCapone

[Snake Eyes]

Snake, pretty sure I said a while back subs and hiraki were scum, I never wish washed, those 2 are still scum, hiraki proved it with the way he swooped in and voted

You've also said a lot of stuff about Hayker, who I'll remind you you're voting for.

You agree that there's 1 scum here:

Erratus Apathos (6):

RobCapone

,

Ashblade

,

GreyICE

,

Bill McQuill

,

Barry Allen

, wikkiden
subgenius (L-2):

GreyICE

,

Ashblade

,

RobCapone

,

Barry Allen

,

Bill McQuill

If it's not you, which?

p. edit: You were voting, at least.

[Snake Eyes]

UNVOTE:

I do have my doubts about Rob, but a tracker claim is both potentially useful and verifiable. I'm willing to let him live another day and re-evaluate on day 2.

Back to Bill, who's still probably scum and has yet again fallen to the background.

VOTE: Bill McQuill

More tomorrow. This game is moving a bit faster than I'm used to.

[Snake Eyes]

Sorry about not posting yesterday, stuff happened and this game is pretty huge for just day 1.

Ok, so I'm sure at this point there is scum in [bvoigt, Hayker, penpen, Bill McQuill]. At least one of them is purposefully lurking or low-content posting because there's enough town doing it that they'll get away with it.

And... I have to say after his latest post bvoigt is the worst offender. On a hunch I even took a quick ISO skim at some of the other games he's played just to see how much of an effort he usually puts in, and in Open 268 and especially Mini 1086 he seems to be making much more of an effort. Here, I really get the feeling he's just coasting and trying to get away with the bare minimum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: bvoigt

Until recent posts I'd have said GreyICE is Bill's scumbuddy, because of his unexplained flip-flop on Bill combined with his quick hop from bill to subgenius back in page 7. Now that he's explained why Bill reads town to and even openly defended him like that, it doesn't seem so likely any more. Bill is still number 2 on my suspect list, but his lurking doesn't seem that opportunistic - I mean, he's twice gotten flak for it and both times he's had a bandwagon on him. Most scum would be a bit more self-conscious than that.

I'll look more into GreyICE next, possibly tomorrow.

[Snake Eyes]

hey bvoight, when can we expect more content from you instead of you just cherry picking things to talk about?

When penpen logs in and answers my questions.

I really don't like how you're justifying your lack of scumhunting by saying that you have a few unanswered questions out there. It's not like those questions are particularly telling or urgent anyway. #3 is utter nonsense, and I wouldn't expect much from #1 and #2 either. Find better scum, and stop tunneling on the obvious VI.

+1 town point to Rob for catching Greyscum in a lie. Hell, I'll be generous and give Grey some credit for starting my wagon since he was the first to claim intent to vote me pregame, but his claim to start the subgenius wagon is outright bullshit. And when called on it Grey cherry-picked the vote-counts to make it look like he wasn't full of shit, then when he was called on that, he changed directions and said Rob was missing the point. THERE IS NO REASON FOR TOWN GREY TO GO TO THESE LENGTHS TO AVOID EXPLAINING WHY HE SAID HE STARTED THE SUBGENIUS WAGON

SO CAN WE LYNCH GREYSCUM NOW PLEASE

I 100% agree with this. I don't see any town motivation for purposefully misleading town like that, and continuing to dance around the issue.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: GreyICE

That's L-1.

Hopefully that will get some answers out of him.