Open 274: Game Over!

[Hoopla]

Hello everyone, good luck.

Mod:

Can the roleblocker block

and

kill in the same night in a situation where they're the only mafioso alive? Also, could we theoretically have a Cop and Nurse? Or does one being picked guarantee the other?

[Hoopla]

VOTE: Alduskkel

[Hoopla]

FoS: Alduskkel

[Hoopla]

So, are you going to let us start now? I haven't feasted in a long time. I'm thirsty for blood.

[Hoopla]

Do you prefer being mafia or town?

[Hoopla]

Mafia. It's on my wiki page FYI.

That's what I thought, I just wanted it in print.

I've developed a slight scum read on you based on your interest in the game so far, which has exceeded the standard confirmation post. You vetted the opening posts thoroughly, picking up on tiny typos and grammar errors, and seemed keen to engage in a pregame dialogue. Although this could just be your way, it proves you have invested a decent amount of time (compared to the average player) thinking about the game, which could be tied with your alignment.

Again, this is slight, but it is a good start. I've also picked up a meta-tell from one of the other confirmation posts too.

[Hoopla]

unfortunately you voted for aldusskkel before he even posted.

Alduskkel is always scum, so it's OK.

[Hoopla]

Last time I checked I've rolled Town 27 times.

So Hoopla, why the lie?

Who is your favourite Disney character?

[Hoopla]

Kuzco, I guess. But I just remember that because you asked me that same damn question in a marathon game. Then you claimed that was an obvious Goon favorite Disney character.

^mafia goon

[Hoopla]

Because I'd rather dazzle you with my wit than have to answer silly questions. Do you

really

want me to answer it?

[Hoopla]

~ Fair enough.

Last time I checked I've rolled Town 27 times.

So Hoopla, why the lie?

I wasn't aware I was lying, as I haven't seen any of your games outside of the one marathon game we've played together, with you being scum.

[Hoopla]

The votes were meta-based initially - playing off our marathon game together. Then I came back to the thread and picked up those tells - they were genuine thoughts, despite you nullifying them slightly. If you want to get technical, you asked why I was suspicious of you without referencing the votes, so I wasn't obliged to mention if my votes were representative of my then current feelings.

[Hoopla]

So what, you voted me because I was scum in that one game?

Sure.

[Hoopla]

I don't really remember much of marathon games - the only reason I remembered that one in particular was because it was hilarious.

http://www.mafiascum.net/dontpanic/view ... p?f=1&t=51

[Hoopla]

Oh, I figured out where I went wrong with the links.

Also Fenchurch is browsing this forum. I expect posting. Surely there is something to say.

She will make a post declaring her love for me.

[Hoopla]

Delicious is also a possible answer.

[Hoopla]

Can't vote yet!!

[Hoopla]

Stefunny, you were online browsing the forums several hours before actually confirming in this game. Why the delay?

[Hoopla]

Vote: ConfidAnon

. You just sort of joked around without kicking up dust (for the record, Hoopla joked around and kicked up dust) which strikes me as active lurkerish.

Active lurkerish? We hadn't even began the game. What do you think of Fenchurch's entrance to the game, then? She did little to get off the fence too, asking for opinions without offering her own.

[Hoopla]

Also, I won't be here for a couple of days. An impromptu roadtrip has been called for - I'll see you all soon!

[Hoopla]

Hello everyone, I'm back (and had a great time incase you were wondering).

I would like an opinion on this/andrew from everyone else please.

Andrew is probably town - his attack on me impassioned and persistent, and although it has come to the wrong conclusion, I think scum would be wary to tunnel so early in the game based on a perceived action. Fenchurch has faulted andrew for holding onto a poor case, but what makes it different now, is that he has received a decent amount of pressure from Fenchurch (and others less directly), yet still hangs on tight. This means either of two things; he is town and genuinely believes he has caught something, or he is scum and believes he can get away with his vote.

If he is scum, he is latching onto this tell, spinning a way of making it scummy and sticking with it. He would know his reasons are bogus, so he'd need to quantitively assess how strong such a tell would be - but the strength of a tell is weighed in two ways; how accurate it is, and how believable it is. As scum, the accuracy is wrong, but the redeeming quality of it being believable diminishes with every post that it is attacked and criticised, making it a less viable place for scum to leave a vote - particularly if such an attack incurs the risk of return votes.

It makes more sense as a town action, because genuinely believing the tell is accurate compensates for the (possible) negative limelight he receives for it, whereas a scum perspective doesn't have that chance of it being accurate to overcome the attention. I think his attack and follow-up arguments are difficult to fake.

~~

ConfidAnon has chimed in with mostly wishy-washy responses, which has been noted by a couple of players - I'm kind of surprised he only has one vote, as he looks like an obvious target for scum (if he is town). If anything the fact this hasn't been targetted much is a slight scumtell for ConfidAnon. Active lurking/wishy-washiness is a pretty universal scumtell within site meta, that it makes more sense for the pressure/votes CA has received/not received to come from 5 townies and 1 CA-scumbuddy than 4 townies and 2 scum not affiliated with CA. My read on him certainly isn't improved by his vote on andrew, which is weak and devoid of any real logic, and the one brief instance where he did try to explain it, he made reference to Stefunny's (non-existant) questiong of andrew. I'm sure he meant Fenchurch, but it shows a lack of attention for the game.

~~

This post from Stefunny pangs of honest inquisition;

I will say that I agree that Fenchurch jumped all over andrew for doing something that was fairly similar to what Hoopla did, but seems pretty determined that Hoopla doing it in a "pro-town" way. Especially since Fen is bringing up past reasonings for Hoopla's vote but still didn't respond to the fact that the reasoning Hoopla gave for her vote was NOT what Fen brought up but reasoning that didn't make sense with the chronology of the game. I understand that might be how Hoopla likes to catch scum off guard but why the lie about her reasoning then?

She is logically deducing a timeline and sequence of events that string together nicely - this post would have required at least one reread to do accurately which showcases an investment of time on her behalf. I think it's honesty stems from the fact I can clearly see the building blocks in this post that lead to her concluding thought - I think her interpretations are very reasonable. The post is grounded in logic, and although it is a fakable playstyle for scum to use (I do it myself), it's hard to do it well, and frankly, I think scum are less likely to invest the effort in producing a post that syncs logically, because they have less incentive to do so.

I was initially suspicious of Stefunny, but that has evaporated. Her reason why she didn't confirm straight away is believable. I think she's likelier to be town.

~~

I have neutral reads on Fenchurch and Alduskkel - on the last page Alduskkel has started to expand his game and ask better questions. His posting still contains an air of cautiousness about it, which makes me hesitant to declare a town read on him. I don't remember Fenchurch getting into such lengthy one-on-one debates with someone, she's generally a little aloof, posting commentary and asking questions moreso than attacking. Her defense of me is more than I expected, and I don't know what to attribute that to. Fenchurch is generally difficult to read, I think.

As for Da Mafia Godfather, he is just being Da Mafia Godfather.

I'm still in the process of sifting through information, so expect more thoughts from me again tonight.


VOTE: ConfidAnon

[Hoopla]

I am hunting for scum and analysing people's posts but because of Hoopla's actions I can't get a general feel for the game (for example because the game didn't begin in an orderly fashion with everybody making a couple of posts on page 1 I keep on forgetting that Stefunny and CA are in this game which throws my whole analysis and thinking out of whack.)

Are you serious? How often do mafia games follow the expected pattern? Unusual things happen, just do your best to adapt and figure it out. You're a mafia player - it's what you need to do.

[Hoopla]

You're voting me because you think the game is confusing.

[Hoopla]

Have you been scum before? If so, can you link to the game?

I haven't got a completed game.

If you haven't got a completed game (or aren't prepared to say if you have one), why are you commenting on patterns in the game, and unusual starts? I don't know why you feel violated.

[Hoopla]

Fenchurch/Stefunny - thoughts on CA? Do you think it would be too early to drop a hammer?

[Hoopla]

Argh, I think Fenchurch is scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Fenchurch

[Hoopla]

I'm not psychic and I doubt Hoopla is either. Hoopla's actions were anti-town (

I

know that for a fact. I think Hoopla could have guessed that it would hurt town somehow even if she didn't know the specifics.

Everyone had confirmed, it's not like it was two people that were here before anyone else. You're grasping at straws.

And Fenchurch - no, that isn't it, but keep posting other reasons please!

[Hoopla]

Argh, I think Fenchurch is scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Fenchurch

Out of curiosity can you explain why you think Fenchurch is scum? I haven't seen anything that has really made me lean that way with Fen.

It's a meta-gut read, and I find it difficult to explain eloquently as it's hard to pinpoint why I'm getting these pangs. It was triggered in post 129 in her attack on Da Mafia Godfather - and it made me go back and read through her posts, and realise something. Fenchurch is generally fairly detached, aloof even, and prefers asking questions and posting a running commetary of events, rather than get tangled in wordy debates. I've not seen her play in such a manner before, and from the looks of it, I think the change has come from her being more aggressive and going out of her way to find things as scummy.

Ordinarilly this wouldn't be a tell at all, or at the very least looks like town trying to pressue someone - but it seems very forced, and almost devoid of the natural curiosity that I have come to associate with Fenchurch. She is always inquisitive and considers other options, but here less so - I think she is trying to force an agenda because she is voting safely on things which can be interpreted as scumtells, but she is not trying to figure out alignment when she attacks. This is the hardest thing to fake. This is why she is scum.

Conversely, this is why you're town, Stefunny.

[Hoopla]

I can't say if this is true or not - and it's slightly bizarre to hear - I'm not really aware of my play being like this. However:

* this is the first game we've played together where I've really been present from the start, where I think maybe information generation (through accusations) is more necessary than observation.
* in a small game it is often more necessary to 'get your hands dirty' than in a large game, like we were last in together.
* this isn't the first game where I've been especially aggressive; see Open 229: Vengeful.

These are all valid points, especially the last one - I hadn't read that particular game. I was perhaps hasty, and half curious to see you defend yourself, and I haven't fully shaken that nagging feeling, but I think I have better options to vote for, because your defense is solid. Let me relook at the game state.

UNVOTE:

~~

As for Andrew's plan, I had been thinking about it during Day 1 also - I think it might be the right play, but for a different reason. If we mislynch today, it puts us in LYLO tomorrow - in which case, a counterclaim situation could be really ugly as we don't necessarily get that confirmed innocent then. I think the role will almost certainly have no use; it needs to match the other role, it needs to outlive the other PR to at least N2, and even if does get a shot on N2, it could still be killed that night, be blocked, or face counterclaim situations the next day. The role is essentially a Named Townie, in which case, having it claim today is probably the best move as it minimises scum's opportunity to have another fakeclaim option in a possible D2 lylo.

As Fenchurch says, we also have the chance of a doctor existing and scum not getting an NK, which would be a handy bonus and somewhat thwarts the risks involved with a D1 claim if there are any, but I think there isn't really if it's a safe assumption we won't get use from the role.

[Hoopla]

Kind of hoping ConfidAnon is the Back-Up.

Mod:

what's the status on CA? Any chance you can start looking for a replacement now?

[Hoopla]

I think towns do better when their powerroles are confided in the lurkers/least experienced/least useful players, because it then means scum is forced to kill those players for us, which simultaneously enables us to keep our more obv-townies or better town players alive longer.

[Hoopla]

I still think that this plan overestimates the tendency and success of mafia counterclaiming, which in my experience is often easy to spot. But my experience isn't that wide, and I'm happy to go along with it if everyone else is. Stef, are you in favour then?

Lets make up our mind soon (ie; the next 12 hours or so), so we have a full 3-4 days of analysis to work with a confirmed alignment.

[Hoopla]

Good thinking Fenchurch, lets get on with it. I'm not the back-up, either.

[Hoopla]

Yeah, Stefunny was pretty obv-town. This puts scums in a difficult situation to take the risk on killing Stefunny - Stef surviving, and no-kill N1 will be amazing.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: I was going to ask this anyway, what did you mean by this quote earlier in the game?

As for Da Mafia Godfather, he is just being Da Mafia Godfather.

And you haven't commented on him much besides; what is your read on DMG in general?

It means Empking is being Empking.

My read on him has been hovering around neutral, mostly because I don't know how to read that well that. He hasn't been attacked as much as I'd expect which makes me think it's possible he is scum - and from a process of elimination point of view, he has a higher than likely chance of being scum, as I have a town read on Andrew, and to a lesser degree you, whilst Stefunny is confirmed town. I would probably only choose to lynch CA or Empking today.

[Hoopla]

We are almost at deadline, and at this point I believe CA would be the one who gets lynched because him and DMG both have 2 votes but I believe CAs votes came first, right?

Well, we don't have a player in CA's slot, so I don't think BlakAdder will drop a deadline without someone there. This game is really stalling without someone.

[Hoopla]

Does the fact that she used a similar opening in a game where she was town have any bearing on your opinion?

It would make my original point null but Hoopla would still be the scummiest player (lots of posts, not a single one that gives me a town read.)

Hoopla: Thoughts on Ald?

Oh, didn't know you were determining my alignment based on whether I thought you were town or not. I'll make sure to do that next game.

I agree he has a tendency to be cautious, but that isn't anything seemingly unusual based on his playstyle, despite it generally looking fishy. I'd lynch him third after you and CA.

[Hoopla]

It would make my original point null but Hoopla would still be the scummiest player (lots of posts, not a single one that has a town tell in it.)

Except for that strong town read on Andrew and Stef.

*shrug*

SEMANTICS I GUESS.

[Hoopla]

A town tell is totally different to a town read surely? That's not just semantics. Town tell = like a scum tell, something that pings as townie on your radar.

That is, on DMG's radar, not Hoopla's.

Fenchurch, don't be daft. You know perfectly well

why

I developed those town reads. I expect Empking to gloss over such details, but not you.

[Hoopla]

I don't consider a player sharing their town reads to be an indication that they are town. Do you?

Unless the player is saying "X is town" without ANYTHING qualifying that opinion, then yes. But when I have developed town (and scum) reads in this game, I have always justified them and tried to explain why I thought they were town, which in and of itself necessitates "town tells". Stop buying into Empking's junk posting. The "HOOPLA'S CONFUSING ME WAAAAAH" thing was bad enough, don't encourage him with this.

[Hoopla]

I thought the earlier stuff was crap, but since about #166 I think he has made good points, and was feeling conflicted in my vote on him. I'll re-read, but right now

I think these are the strongest cases in the game.

What do you mean by "these"? Post 166 doesn't have multiple cases, so I assume you're refering back to this;

I think DMG makes a good call in his reads on Ald and Hoopla. I'd be happy to lynch either of them today.

In which case, Empking's read of me being scum is dependent on me "not posting town tells". Do you believe this too?

[Hoopla]

It would make my original point null but Hoopla would still be the scummiest player (lots of posts, not a single one that has a town tell in it.)

Hang on. I think I misinterpreted Empking's original post - it looks like you're saying that

I've

made no town tells myself, rather than me not catching/posting town tells of others (because I did a lot of that). Sorry.

If that's true, and that's what you meant, then no I can't defend myself if you're saying I'm scum because I'm not town.

[Hoopla]

Okay, that makes more sense in hindsight - I don't know why I read it like that. Either way, I don't have anything to say to that post.

[Hoopla]

Empking, why is me supposedly not dropping town tells suspcious? Or at least, why is it any more suspicious than other players you have a neutral read on? Who are your current town reads?

[Hoopla]

Fenchurch, do you agree that I haven't dropped any town tells?

[Hoopla]

Just replace him please. If you need help, I'll be happy to find someone to slot in.

[Hoopla]

Impromptu roadtrip, will be back within 36 hours, I hope. I don't think it will be that long though.

[Hoopla]

Hi, I'm back, kind of. I'll work on getting you a replacement tonight, BlakAdder.

[Hoopla]

VP Baltar is replacing ConfidAnon when the mod contacts him. Either way, that was a sucky post, Fenchurch.

[Hoopla]

I'll retract my vote, but not my sucky post.

UNVOTE:

I still believe, whereas flaking from the whole site is neutral (and cancels out 'lurking'), choosing to abandon one game is a scummy move.

I don't think you can really say that without knowing the alignment of the other games he didn't flake from. Kind of strange to continue posting on site but completely ignore and not even acknowledge why you're leaving.

[Hoopla]

Would our non-voters mind voting so we know where we stand?

I wouldn't mind seeing Fritz' catch-up post before I lay down what I think. It is a toss up between you two, though, with Alduskkel still slinking into third spot.

[Hoopla]

Halfway through.

DMG: Have you played with Hoopla before?

Hoopla: Did you know DMG was Emp before he made the slip-up?

Yes, and yes.

We played in the Scummies Invitational together, and I believe a Mini normal too - 863.

[Hoopla]

Okay, I think I know who I want to lynch;

VOTE: Alduskkel

Other than Fenchurch's late push CA/Fritz when the slot was being replaced, there's been little initiative shown on either Empking or CA, which indicates they're either scum or if they're not, the players who are scum are comfortable enough to coast and not commit to an adventurous L-1 or hammer vote.

There's a strong disincentive to bus in this game, particularly on Day 1, as going down to one scum against 2 town PR's unnecessarily is a very bad situation to be in. Risk/reward strongly favours trying to generate a lynch elsewhere and/or defend your buddy's wagon, rather than bussing. I'm going to empirically rule-out a Fritz/Empking scumpair for this one passage of play;

....

<snip>

VOTE: Da_Mafia_Godfather

Please stop blaming your confusion on another player and try to come up with some better reasoning, because right now it looks like you are desperately trying to prove someone else is scum with little to no evidence.

....

<snip>

Sincxe I don't want to waste my vote, I'll.

Vote: CA

These posts were made back to back, but most importantly, Empking's vote came after he was put to L-2, at the same time putting CA to L-1, which seems like a ridiculously poor choice risk-wise for an Empking/Fritz scumpair. Upon review, Empking's vote on CA there is very survival-based. He'd posted several times on the same page without committing to that vote, with it only coming after he'd collected his second vote. If Fritz is town, then it's a pretty good chance Empking is scum.

I'm unsure if I should still be ruling Andrew out so heavily, as my view on him was barely challenged by anyone other than Fenchurch, and given the way it has gone down, with few people even paying attention to him now, it's quite possible the reason nobody is attacking him, is because he is scum and there is zero incentive to do so. One benefit from a town collectively (and correctly) deeming a player obv-town, is that it forces scum to either accept that or take the initiative to challenge it. In this instance, the tell I derived to psuedo-clear Andrew wasn't particularly strong and was admittedly wifom-based, but the group reaction to just going along with this is a little disturbing. The individual tell itself is still strong enough to probably put him behind the other four, though.

If I'm correct in my assessments of Fritz/Empking, that they aren't scum together (I think my logic is pretty solid there), and that Andrew is protown (which is a decent shot), it means that one or two of the Fenchurch/Alduskkel pair is scum, which makes sense to me, as they've both qualified as coasters at many points in the game. Fenchurch's aggressive push on CA, putting him to L-1 when that slot remained inactive very likely rules out a Fritz/Fenchurch scumpair, but conversely, it would seemingly make a lot of sense if the scumteam is Fenchurch/Empking. However, that is undercut by Fenchurch's attack on Empking earlier in the game;

....

<snip>

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Da_Mafia_Godfather

Stefunny also voted Empking shortly after, and I don't think Fenchurch offered any sort of adverse reaction - it would be natural to want to steer the undecided voters not onto your scumbuddy, particularly after someone else has just got on, but she actively encourages a CA/Empking lynch, with her vote sitting on Empking. This isn't a scumbuddy play.

Also, CA went to L-1 shortly after, to which I quizzed Fenchurch on her allegiance;

Fenchurch/Stefunny - thoughts on CA? Do you think it would be too early to drop a hammer?

I don't know. He hasn't posted much, but what he has posted is weak/scummy. But then DMG, my other main suspect, got on his wagon, almost openly to avoid his own lynch.

Despite Fenchurch advocating a CA or Empking lynch, she refuses to take the hammer (or set-up a post to hammer/force CA to claim), which would have been quite easy to get away with. In fact, she suggests Empking's vote is suspicious, highlighting his potentially scummy behaviour, which again, isn't a move that Fenchurch would/should make if she's partnered with Empking.

~~

Alduskkel is the best choice from my perspective - it's an intricate web of process of elimination, but I believe all my points are solid. If the following statements are true;

Fenchurch/Empking aren't scum together.
Fenchurch/Fritzler aren't scum together
Empking/Fritzler aren't scum together.

Then it makes it a very rational choice to believe Alduskkel is scum. Andrew is the wildcard as I said earlier, but he's individually less scummy than everyone here, even if he fits into more possible scumpairs. I think in smaller games, and in endgames of larger ones, it's necessary to try and weed out partners, as it's easy to be incorrect on individual behavioural tells. A much stronger play is to find someone scummy, then also figure out if they work with other players as scum - and in this game, I think there are several pairs I can safely rule out, minimising their chances of being scum overall.

This is obviously a biased perspective, as I have not included myself in these eliminations, but I think what I have shown on these players is pretty solid information that isn't dependent on my inclusion in this or not. Consider me if you need to, but don't try and push any of the angles I've ruled out, without taking down the logic I've put behind them. I think I've trapped Alduskkel by process of elimination, but I'll let you judge that.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla's last post ewas a lot of words but taught me absolutely nothing. I don'ty see it as town at all.

Just like your MD threads, I guess?

Seriously though, read the post. My logic is laid out in a very easy-to-get sequence of assumptions. Your MD posts recently have proven you don't have the attention span of a gnat, so you don't get to play the lazy-card any more.

[Hoopla]

Fenchurch/Empking aren't scum together.
Fenchurch/Fritzler aren't scum together
Empking/Fritzler aren't scum together.

All three of these were a given.

I'm pretty sure this wasn't obvious at all - if it was, there is NO CHANCE you'd be voting for CA up until the start of this page. You're either lying to try and discredit my points by suggesting they were obvious, or you have zero concept of playing percentages if you thought CA was the best lynch given those three eliminations.

[Hoopla]

Seriously Hoopla. Who's scum with Ald? Its not me, you, Stef, Fritz, Ald, Fenchurch. So if we rule out Andrew. That leaves...?

What the hell? When did I rule out

anyone

with Alduskkel? The only pairs I ruled out were Empking/Fritz, Fenchurch/Fritz, Fenchurch/Empking. Any of you three could be scum with Alduskkel (or Andrew) from my perspective - I just don't think you are scum with each other. This is the

entire

reason why I am voting for Alduskkel - because he fits into more possible scumteams than any other player (except Andrew, but Andrew is individually less scummy).

Wait, do you really think I cleared you, Fen and Fritz completely?

[Hoopla]

Just to get this on the record, you think Alduskkel is town then?

[Hoopla]

Just to get this on the record, you think Alduskkel is town then?

Its impossible for him not to be.

Confirmed: Stef
Almost Certain: Andrew, Fenchurch

Probably (though I'd still lynch him at deadline): Ald

So, what changed your mind since this post? I haven't seen you declare anything about Alduskkel being town. If it were that obvious, it seems like the sort of thing you'd speak up about earlier.

[Hoopla]

You are quickly shaping up as a very obvious buddy. Andrew is always a possible partner too.

The way you've defended Alduskkel with such vigour makes me think Alduskkel must be the Roleblocker and you're the goon. I hope this is as obvious to everyone else watching as it is to me.

[Hoopla]

Hoop; Are you saying that only players who can (reasonbly) be scum buddies with Ald are myself and Andrew?

It is starting to look this way now, yes.

[Hoopla]

1. So odds wise, CA is just as good a bet as Alduskel?

2. Since we agree that Andrew is town can you accept that from my POV that Alduskel must be town.
3. If you agree with two isn't it logical that as town I'd try to defend him?
4. Isn't it therefore a case of scum throwing muck at a player in order to get a townie lynched rather than good hearted scum hunting?

5. Alduskel flips town. Who are the scum? (I want both of them).

1. Possibly now, but until Alduskkel wasn't put on L-1, he had greater odds of being scum. It seems a little backwards to hop off a wagon once it gets to L-1 based purely on them now being assumed to be involved in less partnerships. I think the logic fizzles out once this is being used as a known tell - players weren't considering the consequence of their L-2 and L-1 votes so much earlier in the game, so they're generally more telling and more reliable to use. Here, less so.

2. I can accept that - but if Alduskkel flips scum, you're in a lot of trouble.

3. It is logical for you to do so as town, and if Alduskkel is town, then I'd be inclined to believe you are town because of it. It is also logical for you to defend him as scum if he is scum. So, I think Alduskkel's alignment is important in determining yours.

4. I don't understand this question.

5. Andrew and one of Fenchurch/Fritz, with Fritz being a whole lot likelier. Fenchurch's early argument with Andrew really would be hard to swallow as scum-on-scum.

[Hoopla]

Andrew, what do you think of Alduskkel? Would you be willing to hammer?

[Hoopla]

Oh wow. Post explosion.

Unless someone is planning on countering this, Alduskkel is confirmed town. This really is great news.

UNVOTE:

~~

From my perspective, at least one Fritz/Fenchurch is scum - as there is no way the Alduskkel-wagon leading up to deadline was all town. I'm thrown off by Fenchurch's strange vote-hopping. It looks genuine in a lot of ways, as if she is trying to figure this game out, but she could just be scrambling. When you weigh up who is likelier to be scum out of Fenchurch/Fritz, it looks more like Fenchurch based on how the wagons have unfolded - there hasn't been significant pressure on Fenchurch and the times where CA/Fritz managed to get to L-1 haven't happened without his possible partner very likely being on the lynch. It makes much more sense for Fenchurch to be scum.

VOTE: Fenchurch

I still love you, though!

[Hoopla]

Fenchurch - DMG

I think this is the scumteam now. I have a theory about why Fen did this;

Jeez.. town are gonna hate me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Ald is scum actually.

UNVOTE:

But... I can't see through the fog and work out who IS. Panicky re-thinking going on okay.

Alduskkel just posted a small catch-up post that hinted at being a powerrole, as there was an emphasis, or rather, a care to put forth the question of him claiming. This is quite clearly PR eagerness, fearful that he's going to be lynched if he doesn't get this information out in the open. Fenchurch picked up on this, which is the reason for her vote - she doesn't want Alduskkel to claim, because it gives the town another confirmed innocent to work with on D1, narrowing the lynch down even further.

I suspect this is why she was initially against the Back-up claim, because she knew confirmed innocents aid process of elimination A LOT, which is a very powerful tool in a small game. I suspect this is why she shifted to Andrew before allowing Alduskkel to claim, too. She wanted to direct a new deadline wagon, rather than let Alduskkel claim, and the fallout of votes possibly land on her. She is hitting the problem on the head before it surfaces - she knew what was happening.

The push towards Andrew is very bad, and is reinforcing my once strong town read of andrew. His plan to have the back-up claim was very protown, if only because it shows initiative in trying to break the game open a bit more for town, or at least improve our odds. The reason Fenchurch is attacking Andrew is because she is defending herself and Empking by proxy. Leading the fallout of the Alduskkel wagon was necessary, because if Fritz wasn't attacked, which she knew the town was increasingly becoming wary of, herself or Empking were next in line.

Even if this isn't entirely true, and Fenchurch's unvote of Alduskkel wasn't for this reason, it makes the Fritz/Fenchurch pair unlikely, because it increases Fritz' chances of getting lynched by spreading the votes. I'm really starting to think this might be Fenchurch/Empking after all. I can't see Empking/Fritz, really. And I think Fenchurch's push on Andrew makes it more likely he is town, coupled with his protown plan earlier in the game.

Fenchurch is scum. Lets lynch her...

[Hoopla]

Fritz, get your damn vote off Alduskkel.

[Hoopla]

Please forgive me, Fenchurch.

[Hoopla]

Sorry if this is an unnecessary abuse of powers, but I'm opening the thread for D2 since the mod forgot to do it.

[Hoopla]

While I am doing the sorry's...

A big sorry to Fenchurch for helping her be mislynched - I genuinely thought you were scum at the end of D1, to the point where I would have bet money on it. Hopefully I'll be able to read you better next game.

~ Strange that the scum opted to kill Stefunny over Alduskkel, though I suppose the net result works out pretty much the same, whichever order they were to kill them in. It might be riddled with wifom trying to analyse the reason why scum decided to do this, but I probably want to at least toss some theories around before closing the chapter.

I'm actually kind of confused right now - process of elimination means that the scumteam either features the unexpected Andrew, or that scum have bussed heavily at some stage in this game, which has thrown me off completely, mostly because it's not how I expected scum to act on Day 1. I want to do a proper reread before I comment much further and lay my cards down, but my initial response to the Fenchurch lynch last week was that I couldn't see a scumteam without Fritz. I didn't look over the thread during the night phase, so I'll work on something more thorough shortly.

[Hoopla]

firstly, i did some reads at the end of day 1 but the night took 6 days. so yea...

but im pretty sure fritzler is scum

That sounds like bullshit, Andrew. What is the point in qualifying your statement with saying the night took 6 days? It surely can't be a non-sequitor, so does that mean such a long patch of time made you forget the deeper reasoning for your read on Fritz?

I find that hard to believe.

I know this is WIFOM as all hell, but I would never kill Stefunny. She invited me to play in this game, and I agreed since we are both in the Unicorn Brethren, and she is the only person here I don't hate. (Well, I don't hate Empking but I do hate DMG?!?!) So, I'm not sure about that one.

Conversely, I find this reads strangely sincerely. I am possibly just jilted by the strong support for the Fritz lynch so early.

I really want to hear something from Empking now.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla; If you were an unbias observer would you say that the Fritzler-Hoopla pairing was a fine pairing that doesn't require bussing or Andrew in the scum team?

Empking, you're asking me to be something that I'm not - and even if I were to roleplay this, I'd still likely be afflicted with some bias. If you are town, I don't think it's an unreasonable belief, if only because from your town perspective the scumteam must be between myself/Fritz/Andrew. I find it slightly suspicious you're seeking validation of authority from me to pursue this avenue of attack, rather than, you know, just posting what you think.

I don't think that is a particularly town mentality, but I'm going to read up the three possibilities from my perspective shortly.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla; If you were an unbias observer would you say that the Fritzler-Hoopla pairing was a fine pairing that doesn't require bussing or Andrew in the scum team?

Empking, you're asking me to be something that I'm not - and even if I were to roleplay this, I'd still likely be afflicted with some bias.

If you are town, I don't think it's an unreasonable belief

, if only because from your town perspective the scumteam must be between myself/Fritz/Andrew. I find it slightly suspicious you're seeking validation of authority from me to pursue this avenue of attack, rather than, you know, just posting what you think.

I don't think that is a particularly town mentality, but I'm going to read up the three possibilities from my perspective shortly.

So you're dodging the question and coming back with an OMGUS-esque attack? Cool.

If you're going to mudsling, at least put in some effort. I did

answer

your question (see bolded), and it is hardly an OMGUS attack - this is just a catchy buzzword to safeguard a sucky attack on someone, as if they're just supposed to take it. I gave reasoning why this attack felt bad and I even answered your question in the process, and I think you know this.

[Hoopla]

Right, I'm going to break down and analyse the three possible scumteams. From my perspective, the scumteam is either Fritz/Emp, Fritz/Andrew or Empking/Andrew - so lets begin;

To ease into this post, Stefunny's nightkill must be looked at - it's possible she was targeted purely because she was a more active and astute player who was capable of deeper analysis, but she was open with her scumreads, which means scum could have a reasonable idea of where she would focus. When you consider Alduskkel's credentials - he was less active, a little lurky and fencesat a lot, without ever really being convincing. It's obvious this was a factor that tilted things in Stefunny's direction, but conversely her reads could also be manipulated if her beliefs were incorrect.

Throughout the day Stefunny was a strong advocate for an Empking lynch, still considering him to be particularly scummy at the close of play. She also included me in this post saying I could be "looked at", but I don't think I am being unfair if I concluded that Stefunny's likeliest pursuit today would have been Empking. This wasn't a one-off attack, but continual pressure. Scum would have known this in killing Stefunny, and I find it much likelier scum would have killed Empking in this situation if he was scum, rather than town. This could be trumped by wifom, with scum trying to "set up" Empking, or scum possibly not knowing the full consequences of the kill, but I deem this less likely. If scum were truly trying to set up Empking, it would mean an Andrew/Fritz scumteam, which makes Andrew's opening post of today just seem bizarre.

I don't think an Empking/Fritz scumteam makes too much sense, though this read is based purely on Empking's complete willingness to see Fritz lynched during Day 1 at crucial moments. Here is the most pivotal point: It starts on page 5 with Andrew voting Fritz over Empking, despite giving himself plenty of opportunity to get on the Empking wagon, claiming Empking doesn't deserve a free pass. This makes the vote count look like this after an aggressive case on Empking from Fen;

Votecount

ConfidAnon (2): Hoopla, Andrew94
Hoopla (1): Da_Mafia_Godfather
Andrew94 (1): ConfidAnon
Da_Mafia_Godfather (1): Fenchurch
Nobody (2): Stefunny, Alduskkel
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Stefunny then puts an L-2 vote on Empking, back-to-back votes from townies - which prompts Empking to make the following play

one post

after;

...

<snip>

Sincxe I don't want to waste my vote, I'll.

Vote: CA

Sensing pressure on himself, what incentive does Empking have to put Fritz ahead on L-1 now? This makes no sense for an Empking/Fritz pairing. I think Empking is rational enough to know that bussing in this instance with a potential cop out there is reckless and not worth the risk. The most common scumplay under such pressure is to bail out onto a townie so you actually have a chance of a mislynch Day 1, rather than the two competing wagons being scum.

I think both Andrew and Empking pushing onto the Fritz wagon early on Day 1 is a key indication that the most likely scumteam is Andrew/Empking.

The Fritz slot has not given much information individually, but the attitudes of others towards it have been telling, and I think both Empking/Andrew have been sincerely eager to dismiss him at different points in the game. When you consider an Andrew/Empking pairing in conjunction with this process of elimination, it does make sense too. I don't think I am just applying shapes to spaces they don't fit. They've never voted for each other, with Empking even going so far as to sheep off my Day 1 logic of believing Andrew to be town, despite not actually acknowledging these are his explicit beliefs too. This is very subtle and canny play by Empking, when he was guiding me with my process of elimination case late on Day 1.

I would like to know what Fritz and Alduskkel think of this idea, because it looks very blatant to me.

[Hoopla]

This is me doing an Empking.

Heyyyy Emp, if you weren't scum, uh, I mean an

unbiased

observer of this game, would you say that Empking/Andrew is a fine pairing that doesn't require bussing? Do you think it's reasonable for me to rule out Empking/Fritz and Andrew/Fritz based on Andrew's and your push for CA yesterday?

[Hoopla]

So, you'd agree from my perspective that Empking/Andrew is the least preposterous of the three?

[Hoopla]

I asked from my perspective, Empy. Could you see Andrew as scum in any way? Can you link to the post outlining your logic why Andrew was "cleared" town from your perspective?

[Hoopla]

Okay then, want to do this bit now?

Can you link to the post outlining your logic why Andrew was "cleared" town from your perspective?

[Hoopla]

I am arguing in perfectly good faith. If you've developed strong enough tells to completely clear someone from ALL possible scumteams, then surely that logic should be fresh in your mind and easy to cite. Why on earth would you not talk about a read so strong for practically the entire game? To me it sounds like a lack of uncertainty, and I truly disbelieve you'd not consider Andrew as scum AT ALL if you were a townie, trying to work out the game.

Here is your post 23 in your ISO;

1. It confused me.
2. Town reads.
3, Its being over careful. More careful than how town would post.

1. We've been over this a billion times and no one ever convinces anyone else.
2. Yeah, well where the hell did you get those town reads? You can't just say that I look less town than other people without explaining why I look less town.
3. I quest for information. That is very typical town behavior. If I seem overly careful then I think it's more logical to think that that's just my playstyle. Feel free to meta me, I have a wiki entry.

And I am not the backup.

1. Then stop asking questions where you know I'll give that as an answer.
2. Reading. I'm giving my thought processes. I'm not even voting you.

When I'll do that I'll explain how Fenchurch and Andrew are clearly looking for the best way to help town in each of their posts

.
3. I'll do that now.

So that's the entire reason why you cleared Andrew as town? I hope Alduskkel and Fritz don't buy this rubbish.

[Hoopla]

Yes thev fact that Andrew is unambigiously town is why I consider him town. Its one reason but I consider it a pretty important one.

What does that even mean?

Seriously, if it's unambiguous, give me the straight up answer

why

he's town rather than tiptoeing around the question.

[Hoopla]

Yes thev fact that Andrew is unambigiously town is why I consider him town. Its one reason but I consider it a pretty important one.

What does that even mean?

Seriously, if it's unambiguous, give me the straight up answer

why

he's town rather than tiptoeing around the question.

Andrew wants the town to win. Therefore he is town.

EXPLAIN WHY

. YOU'RE SAYING NOTHING AND YOU KNOW YOU'RE SAYING NOTHING!!!

[Hoopla]

As an analysis from a Hoopla-town PoV, it works quite well, but I find myself doubtful because Empking's raises a very good point in 375. Is it truly believable that the two major wagons at the end of Day 1 were town driven? Possibly, if we're stupider than we think we are. Another problem is that andrew94's backup claim idea is a large town tell for him, but Hoopla's analysis implicates him.

The fact that Empking/Andrew were off the Fenchurch wagon in the end is a complete non-point, because they were the two least suspected players at the time. Being under no pressure enables you to stay off wagons/push others on your own accord - you essentially get to choose what happens. For almost the entirety of Day 1 this was true for Andrew, and at least true for the latter part of the day for Empking. To quantify this theory with some data;

Several months ago, I was data mining Day 1 wagons in 3:9 Mini Normals to work out how often scum were on the final Day 1 lynch. In 47 games where town reached a full seven player verdict, here were the results for a town lynch;

0 scum on final lynch wagon: 4 (8.5%)
1 scum on final lynch wagon: 14 (29.8%)
2 scum on final lynch wagon: 14 (29.8%)
3 scum on final lynch wagon: 15 (31.9%)

Nothing unexpected there really, right? Wrong. When you consider the random odds (all the votes in the game are truly random), here is what the final lynch percentages should look like;

0 scum on final lynch wagon: (2.4%)
1 scum on final lynch wagon: (25.5%)
2 scum on final lynch wagon: (50.9%)
3 scum on final lynch wagon: (21.2%)

There is a significantly staggered difference in weighting - and though the 0 scum option in this game is quite low, it is still higher than what is expected. And in a smaller game like this, the odds of this possibility occuring randomly would be higher than this, with the actual played out odds probably higher again still.

This is a subjective belief based on what I have read, but generallyle of bandwa in the 0 scum and even 1 scum games, scum have had very little pressure on themselves giving them minimal incentive to get blood on their hands from being on a lynch - generally speaking, if you can stay off a town wagon, it can be good. Likewise, I believe this is also why the 3-scum-wagon has a higher than average occurance happens - because scum have one of their buddies under pressure and have to force something through together. It is a loose theory and there are obviously exceptions, but it is a pretty basic and solid principle of bandwagon analysis, that less pressure = more options. And in many cases, staying off town wagons is a more optimal move than pushing for something.

It's important to note, that I'm not trying to argue that both scum being off the final Fenchurch lynch wagon is the likeliest scenario here - I was merely using this data to show the relevence of pressure in determining what scum do with their vote. This is why Empking/Andrew being off the Fenchurch lynch is not relevant at all. Neither were under any pressure to get on when they had Fritz and possibly me next in line, right after a wagon fell off Alduskkel.

Another problem is that andrew94's backup claim idea is a large town tell for him, but Hoopla's analysis implicates him.

Maybe one problem is that the primary scumhunting technique right now seems to be process of elimination instead of the normal searching for scum tells. Sure, with only 3 unconfirmed (from everyone's perspective but mine) and 2 scum it's highly tempting. Yet there must be individual scum tells out there to pick up on.

For what it's worth, I've found process of elimination to be an exceedingly helpful tool, far surpassing behavioural tells. It is very easy to get those wrong, as scum players specifically work on improving and deceiving townies in this area of the game - scum have far less direct control over process of elimination, as this entails vetting their votes/attacks/defenses and their general interactions with others players, which is much harder to prevent. I refuse to trust anyone who thinks they can consistently predict alignment solely off behavioural tells. If you think someone is scum, great - but they need to make sense with someone else as scum.

I'm not going to tell you how to play the game, but if you're using individual scumtells as the metric for determining your final reads, then you really cannot go past the way Empking has been arguing on this last page. He has been deliberately obtuse, avoiding questions with sloppy rhetoric, and when he did finally provide an answer (which was admittedly understandable), why didn't he just say it to begin with if this TRULY was his reasoning for clearing him? Why would he be so reluctant in releasing this information? He had NEVER stated Andrew was obv-town, despite trying to pedal these as his game-long beliefs.

Neither Andrew or Empking have shown any interest in trying to discover either's alignment - this is their most obvious tell. Particularly with Andrew coming out and voting Fritz without

any

thought to Empking. It really is that obvious to me, and I hope I can convince you of my perspective.

[Hoopla]

Sorry, a part of my post messed up for some reason;

This is a subjective belief based on what I have read,

but generallyle of bandwa in the 0

scum and even 1 scum games, scum have had very little pressure on themselves giving them minimal incentive to get blood on their hands from being on a lynch - generally speaking, if you can stay off a town wagon, it can be good. Likewise, I believe this is also why the 3-scum-wagon has a higher than average

occurance happens

- because scum have one of their buddies under pressure and have to force something through together. It is a loose theory and there are obviously exceptions, but it is a pretty basic and solid principle of bandwagon analysis, that less pressure = more options. And in many cases, staying off town wagons is a more optimal move than pushing for something.

This is what that paragraph should read;

This is a subjective belief based on what I have read, but generally in 0-scum and even 1-scum games, scum have had very little pressure on themselves giving them minimal incentive to get blood on their hands from being on a lynch - generally speaking, if you can stay off a town wagon, it can be good. Likewise, I believe this is also why the 3-scum-wagon has a higher than average occurance - because scum have one of their buddies under pressure and have to force something through together. It is a loose theory and there are obviously exceptions, but it is a pretty basic and solid principle of bandwagon analysis, that less pressure = more options. And in many cases, staying off town wagons is a more optimal move than pushing for something.

[Hoopla]

Andrew, I know, and I'll direct you to this part of my post;

It's important to note, that I'm not trying to argue that both scum being off the final Fenchurch lynch wagon is the likeliest scenario here - I was merely using this data to show the relevence of pressure in determining what scum do with their vote. This is why Empking/Andrew being off the Fenchurch lynch is not relevant at all. Neither were under any pressure to get on when they had Fritz and possibly me next in line, right after a wagon fell off Alduskkel.

I'm not trying to use data to say all scum will be off the wagon - I'm trying to say that outcome has a higher possibility than random, because in situations where scum can get away with it, they have a tendency to stay off the wagon. If they know the lynch is between 2 or 3 people who aren't them, they have little incentive to stick their neck out one way or the other. This is what I'm trying to apply here - yourself and Empking were not lynch considerations at the end of Day 1, so it's perfectly reasonable to believe you're scum sitting back, as opposed to the unlikeliness Empking thought this was.

[Hoopla]

yea, but theres still no 3 scum ,so if you remove that, your % wont add up to 100%

I'm not trying to say that. I'm trying to refute Empking's point that you/Empking being off Fenchurch's wagon at the end of Day 1 is a non-point.

Do you think that being off Fenchurch's wagon at the end of Day 1 is a town tell for you and Empking?

[Hoopla]

Hey Fritz, I'm trying to save your ass from being lynched. Mind stepping in and actually giving the game something? It would be appreciated...

[Hoopla]

so you think fritz is town???

If you've read anything I said today, you would know I believe Empking/Andrew is the scumteam.

[Hoopla]

i did talk about empking???

read my iso again.

Link me to the posts that show you genuinely trying to work out his alignment.

[Hoopla]

We need some more Alduskkel up in here.

[Hoopla]

Fourthly, according to Fonz and others when you're dealing with Hoopla level players you can basically judge their alignment by the results of their actions. In Hoopla's case her actions resulted in... the best (reasonable) possible situation for scum.

This is a ridiculously lazy appeal to authority. However accurate you think I am, there will always be games where I'm wrong. This sort of attitude invests zero effort in determining my alignment, because it is something scum (or bad townies) can wheel out whenever it fits. The frustrating thing is, some other players actually deem this a viable way of reading someone, which is nonsense. If you can't understand someone's motivations on any deep level, then you should judge them based on their sincerety or a process of elimination, not this.

I think I have been sincere, and I think I have worked hard in trying to break this game open. I appeal to Alduskkel to consider this, because it is obvious to me that others, namely Andrew and at times Empking, have not attempted to work out other player's alignments, which is a key scum tell. It is exceedingly difficult to feign such townie curiousity, and I think it is starting to show.

[Hoopla]

no. empking i meant that you are known aka pro aka good player aka WILL NOT BE CONFUSED BY HOOPLA

this was an 'effort'

If that is the extent of your effort in this game, then I think my argument is very well justified. Who is Fritz' partner if you think he is scum? How confident are you that Fritz is scum? Could Empking be scum?

[Hoopla]

im confident fritz is scum, and one of you/empking is his partners

Who is likelier? I want to see you argue from a scumpairing point of view.

[Hoopla]

Empking, be quiet and let Andrew make his own reasoning - I already know yours. You interjecting now and giving him answers is scummy as hell.

[Hoopla]

Mod, please plod Alduskkel.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: How do you reconcile this quote:

From my perspective, at least one Fritz/Fenchurch is scum - as there is no way the Alduskkel-wagon leading up to deadline was all town.

with your current stance? Walk me through what made you change your mind.

Also, why would scum andrew94 suggest the back-up claiming idea?

Well, your second question is exactly why I believed that yesterday - my process of elimination cases didn't include Andrew because I thought he committed a town tell in suggesting the back-up claim, coupled with some of his earlier play. The only real reason why I think he is scum today is because Empking/Fritzler is the least likely pairing, based on Empking attacking Fritz hard throughout D1, putting him to L-1 once he was coming under pressure himself.

Ruling out such a pairing supersedes behavioural tells from Day 1 - I feel a lot more confident about my Fritz/Empking elimination, than anything else I have said.

Empking even going so far as to sheep off my Day 1 logic of believing Andrew to be town, despite not actually acknowledging these are his explicit beliefs too. This is very subtle and canny play by Empking, when he was guiding me with my process of elimination case late on Day 1.

Can you give me the relevant posts regarding this?

Sheeping my logic might be slightly misleading. A more accurate description is Empking is completely eliminating any possibility of Andrew being scum, without ever saying why. His future explanations on Day 2 is when we learn his reasons were the same as mine, just to clear that up. Here are the quotes that showcase Empking completely ignoring the possibility;

Andrew is the wildcard as I said earlier, but he's individually less scummy than everyone here, even if he fits into more possible scumpairs.

Another given.

Seriously Hoopla. Who's scum with Ald? Its not me, you, Stef, Fritz, Ald, Fenchurch.

So if we rule out Andrew

. That leaves...?

This theme is prelevent in most of Empking's postings.

~~

Hoopla: Why haven't you voted for andrew94?

Stylistic reasons, I suppose. It's just my personal preference to not have votes flying about when there's so few of us, and even more so when it's LYLO. I dislike others rushing their votes, so this is why I don't put mine out - I'd rather the town come to a group consensus, rather than the individual townies asserting their opinions with their votes, no matter how sure they are. It's plenty easy enough to figure out what everyone's stances is with 5 players, that we don't need votes to represent us, as this opens up more room for error.

[Hoopla]

Also, you didn't actually answer my question: what is scum-andrew94's motivation for the backup claim idea? I understand why you changed your mind, but I want to hear why you think andrew94 did that.

There is a real elasticity in game theory and in particularly mafia theory, where any tactic/tell that becomes too powerful eventually gets kicked in the knees by mafia usurping it. Being the leading proponent of a scum lynch was once a sure-fire thing to lock yourself in as town - this is why bussing came about. Claiming Miller D1 was once a seemingly very townie thing to do, and as soon as that meta was established, scum took advantage of it. The same can be said here; there is intrinsic town value in trying to create a claiming strategy - it usually looks quite honest or like you're trying to help the town. Scum could quite easily take advantage of this too, believing there was town credit to gain by doing this.

You also need to look at it from the scum's perspective; by suggesting a back-up claim, do you stand to gain more town credit for suggesting it than however much you might improve town's lynching odds by? Which is more beneficial? It could easily be debated that the back-up claiming did very little to improve town's chances of winning, as it then prevents scum having to lock themself into having to counterclaim the next day, where having two possible PR's alive could be more deadly. These are just theories, and I don't expect Andrew to have thought about it that much - his reasoning could have been as simple as thinking outing a PR might be pro-scum if he can get away with it, but whatever the answer is, he must have conciously or subconciously considered that play to be more worthwhile for himself/scum than what town gains from it. And if you look at how the town viewed him for the rest of Day 1 (and even at times today), you could definitely say it was worth it.

I suppose you just need to weigh up, whether you think Andrew was capable of faking that as scum. Even if his logic wasn't as deep as what I postulated, could he do this? Is he more likely to do this as town trying to improve town's chances? Either way, I could see why you consider this a town tell, because I did at the time, but also try to look at it from the other side too. Sorry if that didn't answer the question very well, but the simplest reason I can put forth is that he did it to gain town credit, and succeeded very well.

[Hoopla]

Well, since I'm not hammering Fritz, I think that makes it obvious the scumteam is either Andrew/Empking or myself/Fritz. I suppose Fritz/Empking or Fritz/Andrew are possible too, and scum is bussing hard during this day, but these are unlikely, I think.

I will vote Andrew now, since it looks like Alduskkel is going to be the deciding player at the end of this. Take your time, ask questions and try to figure the game out from a scumteam perspective. I think you will see the truth if you try to figure it out this way.

VOTE: Andrew

[Hoopla]

Also are you guys seriously going to sit here while I just sort of blandly mull over this game a bit? I'm both annoyed and surprised that andrew94 and Fritzler have done almost nothing to try to convince me that the other is scum.

Um, are

you

serious? We waited here for like 8 days in a row while you were away and almost replaced. You're the one that killed this game's flow, not any of us. I don't know what else you want us to say, I've made my case on why Empking/Andrew is the scumteam, Empking's done the same for his side, just make a decision. It's just a game.

If you really need me to answer the rest of this;

@Hoopla: When you unvoted in post 149 why didn't you revote ConfidAnon/Fritzler?

In posts 345 and 347 you suddenly switched to Fenchurch after I claimed. Why Fenchurch over Fritzler, when you had expressed suspicion of the Fritzler slot previously but little of Fenchurch?

This was due to a faulty process of elimination case where I removed Andrew from the equation. Once I'd done that, it made less sense for Fritz to be scum as other players (like fenchurch) made more sense with more different players - this was my main reasoning for going after you just prior. I suppose my process of elimination case was always going to be botched when I wrongfully eliminated Andrew.

I hope you find this satisfactory - I've long since lost interest in this game due to how it's dragged out. I'm town and Fritzler is town, and the most convincing reason I have is based on Empking/Andrew's relative comfort on Day 1 compared to every other player. They didn't

need

to put their neck out and make controversial stances, because they were likely safe anyway, which is exactly what happened.

If you cannot see this, well, then I understand, because ordinarilly Empking's points aren't completely horrible. I can see why a Fritz/Hoopla team isn't completely unreasonable, and again, all I can say about this is, me being so wrong late on Day 1 about Andrew is what created this false link between us. I think I was honest in positions yesterday when I was pushing all of those wagons, and I hope you can see that.

Good luck!

[Hoopla]

I'm town, so good call.

[Hoopla]

You never really considered a Fritzler/Andrew scumteam, Empking. Are you surprised? Are you dazzled?

[Hoopla]

From your perspective, the scumteam must be Fritz/Andrew - is it surprising to you that this was the answer to the game all along? What were you thinking when you first saw Andrew's lynch and flip yesterday? I'd like you to put that moment into words and relive it again with me here.

[Hoopla]

CA should also share that scummy, given that they cross-bussed very hard on Day 1. CA's vote on Andrew was arguably more risky given that Andrew was the Roleblocker and coming under increasing pressure. Do you think these two players would ordinarilly possess the talent to pass off such an elaborate bus?

[Hoopla]

Also, what was the purpose of checking your role PM?

[Hoopla]

I reread the entire thread entertaining the possibility of Fritzler-scum, but it just doesn't make much sense at all. Andrew and CA would have needed to cross-bus extremely heavily from the outset, both placing votes on each other at particularly risky moments. Andrew in particular pushed for CA very often late on Day 1, when his lynch was certainly on the cards, and at the beginning of Day 2. I think that was a key tell that Fritz is probably town - after I displayed openness to lynch Fritz at the start of Day 2, Andrew waltzed in, seizing that opportunity to lock in on Fritz.

The one thing that worries me, is that Andrew is a player with hidden depths - his proposal of the back-up claiming was a very clever, calculated play to reap town points, that shows he operates on a deeper level than his sloppy one and two line posts suggest. This does make the hardcore cross-bussing play an outside possibility, because he has shown he's capable of some canny and adept scumplay. But even decorated scumplayers would have difficulty pulling this off, or even deciding to do this in the first place - it seems somewhat suboptimal to try that tactic, given that if you do get your partner lynched, you could still quite easily lose with PR process-of-elimination superseding that town credit gained. Perhaps Andrew and CA aren't on this level to weigh the risk vs. reward appropriately - the most brazen scumplay often comes from players who can't calculate the risks properly.

But still, I think it would be a poor choice to support that outside chance. There are just too many hurdles to overcome to consider Fritz as the scumpartner, that I must play the percentages. In most situations the right answer is the simplest one, and though an outside possibility might come to fruition occasionally, it would be suboptimal in the long run to side with a secondary belief.

Good game everyone.

VOTE: Empking

[Hoopla]

Mad props to CA/Fritz and in particular Andrew, that was some very daring and cunning play. That was certainly a very humbling loss - I bare no shame in saying we were thoroughly outplayed this game. Congrats.

Sorry to Empbuddy, I hope you can see why I thought it was you over Andrew. I did the professional thing and tried to see the game in another light, but even then, I was still 70-80% sure you were scum. I'm not sure how much influence scum had in the linking of you to them, or whether it was merely a by-product of process of elimination, but I will try to spot those things next time.

Fenchurch, sorry for lynching you on Day 1. I hope you understand that too! I'm surprised you weren't considering me as scum in your after-game notes. It turns out Ald couldn't have been wrong yesterday, haha.

Thanks for the game everyone, it was fun.

[Hoopla]

Sorting bump.