Open 276- Friends and Enemies Mafia (OVER)

[Battousai]

My scum reads so far are: Hoopla, lynchmepls, ABR (helped by 256), NS (based on empking’s 265) with the last two backed by Empking's flip.

Also, I'm pretty sure there is at least one scum among Empking's Null list:

Hoopla
Newbie2010
Albert B. Rampage
Debonair Danny DiPietro

Vote: ABR

[Battousai]

unvote, Vote: Fate

I have a town read on you, but you can not live to end game. Too much WIFOM. Though, if you are town at least you gave us some interesting reactions to help with outting the remaining masons.

[Battousai]

Seriously, Fate is not going to be NK'd. Just won't. So think about it.

You, Fate, and Third Player. How hard would it be for the third player to get you to lynch Fate in lylo. He outted a mason for NO REASON (strike that, he did it to mess with Hoopla).


Calling final scum: ABR and LMP. Had them both as scum preFate and their reaction seemed scummy. I'll be willing to lynch either of these two if there is enough support.

Ninja edit: More certain with LMP's reaction. His last post is "don't lynch Fate until the end of the day!" Which, obviously, would result in us lynching someone else as the momentum wouldn't be behind Fate

[Battousai]

We should lynch NS today, maybe Hoopla gets NK'd tonight, then we lynch Battousai or AlmagasterG tomorrow.

What is your case with me? This seems to be coming out of nowhere.

[Battousai]

I still have my suspicions of LMP and ABR. LMP > ABR in that LMP is more likely scum.

Vote: LMP

[Battousai]

ABR- I remember my question to you yesterday. "What is your case with me? This seems to be coming out of nowhere." Answer please. In that I want a case at least.

LMP- I meant scum... damn I'm getting bad lately with "scumslips" as town (just got lynched for one in Square Enix Mafia for one as town). I obviously meant scum, as masons makes no sense in that context. At that time both Hoopla and Andrew were outed masons. I wouldn't need reactions to find them.

This whole post of yours is utter scum shit. First you attack AGM (which goes in line with ABR). Then you attack me for shit reasons. Help with outting the remaining masons doesn't make sense as both masons were already fucking outted. Second Town reads are NOT DEFINITIVE. Yes, I thought Fate was town. And the implication of town-fate's actions would net us some decent scum reactions. AND IT DID. The if was there because it was not known DEFINITIVELY whether Fate was town and that put the reactions as possibly being helpful in outting the remaining scum.



I'm starting to see connections with ABR and LMP. Still confident in my read on LMP. Just go back and read his interactions with the Fate counterclaim. That just screams scum.

[Battousai]

So, you want to lynch AGM for the information then?

[Battousai]

Interesting...

So far we have a scumteams of

AGM/Batt (decided by LMP, ABR, and Andrew)
LMP/ABR (decided by Batt)

Individually:
LMP (DDD, AGM)

With NS not making a stance yet.

With the two most likely lynch targets (concerning where votes are currently placed) as LMP and AGM.



While we wait for NS to come back, how about we play the what if game? Ok here how it goes, it's pretty simple only 2 questions. If LMP is lynched and flips scum, who is the final scumbuddy? If AGM is lynched and flips scum, who is the final scumbuddy? Now, besides the obvious I think xxx is pretty scummy answer, look for some connections (especially with confirmed scum Empking).

I'd go first, but honestly I haven't looked for connections for both, so I will post my answer after I go find it in the next 20 or so minutes.

[Battousai]

LMP, so you are not going to try and find the third scumbuddy via connections? The reason I brought the question up is that it looks like it is an even split between AGM and you, with NS not saying anything recently on it.

Also, 1/3 of the way done. Just finished with the empking slot and now going onto LMP and AGM.

Sorry if this double posts, can't seem to get it to go through

[Battousai]

Ok done. Here are my results:
If LMP flips scum, the best connection that leads to a scum partner is NS.
If AGM flips scum, the best connection that leads to a scum partner is no one.

AGM ISO shows that AGM defended Empking (though at the same time voted him) by attacking Fate so much (pre-Fate dumbshit move). This makes me worry about my LMP vote as I don't see LMP/AGM scum team.

unvote

I'm not convinced enough to vote anymore.


Data I got my results from (remember, this is assuming LMP and AGM are scum):

Andrius interactions:

RVS voted LMP slot

Calls NS scum

, but doesn't vote him. Doesn't give a case. <>
Uses weak meta for NS-scum

Empking interactions:

Calls LMP slot town
Calls NS scum, but no case
WEAK INTERACTION:

calls DDD and ABR nul

l (personally, I believe scum would put 1 member of their team in the null for later bussing if needed but doesn't require an actual case to be made on them)
ISO 7- This lends to a less likely pairing of Empking/NS. He tries to shift attention to NS
Though, ISO 14 throws strong signals of a connection. Votes NS for gut, even though last post was PN is obvscum
ISO 24- Attacks AGM, looks like a scum vote to me with the whole (forgot AGM replaced Dafish) (less likely connection).

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Flinter interactions:

Say's

NS's

play can call for a Policy lynch but prefers a wait-and-see method.

LMP interactions:

Not much. Only interactions are today with me and AGM.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Dafish interactions:

RVS votes

LMP

slot
Votes NS, makes a case, but then doesn't try and get support nor try and probe NS
Defends Andrius to ABR

AGM interactions:

Votes Empking, initial distancing

[Battousai]

I was looking at the ISO's only to see if there is a three way or two way connection.

[Battousai]

AGM- I meant it as you were no longer focused on Empking. Your "argument" with Fate was distracting from the Empking wagon, and slowing down the momentum of the wagon. Thus the argument benefited Empking and that is how you defended him (though defended is probably the wrong word there).

Is no one else going to scumhunt or just remain waiting for NS to return to hammer? I would think scumhunting for the third scum would be better than doing nothing.

[Battousai]

A) I don't look for scum partners without someone flipping scum; that's carriage before the horse thinking.

B) Battousai if you are going to do such analysis then why are you only looking at their scum flips? Surely you're not assuming the incredibly superficial idea that one of AGM or LMP has to be scum and that they can't both be town?

I'm just trying to get some discussion going and try and see if anyone would change their minds when they start looking for scumpartners. Hell, I've become unsure of LMP when I did it. And obv, they both can be town, but if that is the case town is probably fucked anyways.

[Battousai]

Hmm... I'm surprised NS didn't chalk it up to a miscount and thinking he didn't hammer LMP. Concerning your points on why you hammered

1) You had a total of 32 posts (not including the hammer and today). Last time I checked 33 > 32.
2) Sheeping and believing Fate over Hoopla. Ya, that's not all too scummy.

ABR- If you didn't notice, I unvoted LMP but it was missed. Would I have lynched him? That's a matter of WIFOM until postgame so I'll save it till then.

NS meta- Looking at his completed games (ignoring where he IC'd) I couldn't find anything within the first 25 pages, so I said fuck it and started looking at the last pages (started at 200) so I can find a game where he is not modding.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 12&start=0 - Replaced out, was a large game (120+ pages). I think town turned scum via cult aspect. Not sure when. Null.
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=13503 Scum. Made 38/556 posts 6.8% You can read it to see if his posts are similar.
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 03&start=0 Town. Made 38/485 7.8% You can read it to see if his posts are similar.

From those two readings (don't have time to further research), NS actively lurks as town and scum.


On DDD, I have a null read on him from the fact that he hasn't really participated much, but at the same time when he does it isn't scummy like NS.

Then there's the whole NS/Empking connection that seems to indicate a strong pull towards that duo.

ABR- Also, I'm just not seeing why I wanted Hoopla dead more than anyone else. So what if he found me scummy? Just because someone becomes confirmed, they do not become omniscient. I didn't see much of a danger of being lynched, but instead I was more focused on getting FATE lynched for his BS.

Right now, my vote is leaning towards NS.

[Battousai]

I'm assuming people aren't getting on because of the site going down a bit. Going to go look at outside posts to see if this is the case.

[Battousai]

Hammer vote!!!!


nah... I would, but more interested in AGM right now.

AGM- Would you be willing to lynch NS today? WHo is his partner?

[Battousai]

I'm not scumz.

I'll hammer, though, because looking back at everything there's really no way NS can live. He's lurked. He quickhammered. He hasn't scumhunted. He hasn't really DONE ANYTHING.

Anybody have anything to say before the hammer of vengeance comes swinging down?

Hammer vote!!!!


nah... I would, but more interested in AGM right now.

AGM-

Would you be willing to lynch NS today

? Who is his partner?

[Battousai]

Vote: NS

[Battousai]

Mod: What is your ruling for a stalemate of no lynche/no night kills?

Vote: No Lynch

[Battousai]

unvote

[Battousai]

unvote

Um, excuse me? What are you scared of, the dreaded "quicklynch no lynch?"

Waiting on mod's response to Batt's question before sending this back to night.

[Battousai]

Three phases, that would mean if we no lynch today scum must kill or go for the tie.

vote: No lynch

And can we get a shortened night if this passes through quickly? Scum should have already planned a NK in case they were forced to kill.

[Battousai]

Shit, that means scum wanted a draw...

AGM must be scum. DDD wouldn't go for the draw as there is too much attention paid on other people and not him. I don't see ABR going for the draw, more of a win or lose for him. That just leaves AGM. I thought his quick no lynch vote was a bit suspicious (especially coupled with complaining about my no lynch).

[Battousai]

I fucking knew it. Empking-NS-ABR were pretty well linked through Empking but I conceded that I may be wrong on the ABR front after the whole Fate scene.

[Battousai]

FTR, After rereading, I decided that NS was scum but finding his partner between AGM/LMP would be difficult. So I wanted him to vote and I would hammer the other person. Unfortunately they were both town.