Newbie 1079: Feed the Lynch Mob (Game Over)

[GreyICE]

Vote: Bristep123

He was scum last time, so he's scum this time!

[GreyICE]

Boo.

Caught on post 7! WAGON TIME!

[GreyICE]

*SNIP*

[GreyICE]

Meh. Normally I'd be frowning on setup speculation, but this is a newbie.

The 2 mafia, 7 VTs is the worst setup for the town, obviously.
2 Mafia, 6 VTs, 1 doctor is neutral. A single doctor protect can be cool, but doesn't buy us an extra lynch, meaning that the major use is to keep a good player alive longer, make the scum take questionable shots over 'optimal' shots.
2 Mafia, 6 VTs, 1 Cop, is slightly town leaning IMHO. Cops are awesome. You can catch the scummiest person, or keep them from being a mislynch. If it prevents a mislynch, that's basically an extra day - the same as two doctor protects
1 Mafia, 1 RB, cop/doctor is generally town favored.

[GreyICE]

Hmmm

He does say a little overdefensive.

But...

Vote: Thil13

Thil: Have you played mafia before?

[GreyICE]

And btw, I declare bah on the RVS so far. RQS!

1) How many games of mafia have you played before?
2) What age are you?
3) Would you rather pull town or scum, and why?
4) Whose your strongest suspicion at this point?

[GreyICE]

Okay, I'll toss mine into the pot

1) Probably about... 20 maybe? I have a wiki with a good number
2) 26
3) Town. 100%. I have really bad habits as scum. I get bored, and make incredible theories, and then people realize "wait, nothing he's saying makes sense!" I'm good at faking a 'townie tone' though, or so I've been told. Figuring things out is just more fun.
4) I'd have to say Thil13. I'm not overwhelmed by KoH, but OMGUS is not much of a scum tell. And I don't consider honesty about preferences a scumtell. But Nacho is being strongly pro-town here. He's trying to generate reads and reactions. Which is not to say that Nacho is not smart enough to do pro-town activities as scum, but it's a very poor reason to suspect him. Thil seems to be both laying low, and worried that Nacho might get a 'bad reaction' from him or his partner. That's a scum motive, to me.

[GreyICE]

Hey guys, lets try and keep it on the rails.

There's some serious attempts to derail stuff going on here, and we're still not hearing from some people. What's the last thing Bristep posted?

[GreyICE]

So panda voted for someone on the expectation someone else would unvote.

Before hammer.

Why does that seem wrong?

Unvote

Vote: Panda

[GreyICE]

Sorry, prod received.

Honestly, not much is changing.

Pandabear:

Easily my number one. I hated that 'vote expecting someone to unvote.' I hate that thing with Nacho. "It's pro-town to interrogate people, so I'll go be protown! Look at me being townie!" It's bad. It's really, really bad. How is it interrogating someone if you tell them the vote for pressure is 'for pressure?' It's just a little dance to look pro-town.

King of Harolds:

Could he be? Sure. The "I didn't realize it was OMGUS" was pretty bad, especially when I said it wasn't a scumtell, but I can't say that that's more than a niggling concern.

Snipe:

Has contributed nothing to the game. Like, amserious.

Thil13:

Again with the 'that's how the game is played, so I'll play the game that way to look town!' bit. The point is to catch scum. You have to be fairly fast and loose sometimes.

Traveller

: This is way too cheeky to be newb-scum. Town

Bristep

: Meh. If it makes any sense, I think he'd put in more effort as scum, just to see if he could fool me

Nacho

: I don't like lynching the IC on day 1. In this case, it doesn't much matter, because Nacho is incredibly pro-town here.

I'm going to give this game the consideration it deserves, but I have to say this:

ACTIVITY PEOPLE

[GreyICE]

And yes, that's bloody hypocritical from the guy who just got prodded. DUN CARE

[GreyICE]

Oh hey, I did.

Yeah, Tars feels town to me. Thanks for the backrub

Gah, I'm just going to take a break from this site for a little. Dealing with Fate is like dealing with a rabid wolverine on stupid.

[GreyICE]

In two of your first two posts you claimed town (15, 41). I find that suspicious that you would do that right away.

Thil seems to be very hesitant and afraid of drawing suspicion, which looks scum to me, although I sort of did the same thing with panda.

I think you mean in two of my early posts, not in my first two posts. You'll find that I explained why that seemed a normal enough thing to do in 27.
It would have been suspicious if I'd claimed a power role at that point, not to claim town-aligned.

I'll keep my vote on you.

In your opinion, would scum claim to be scum aligned?

[GreyICE]

All I'm seeing on each of these posts is people posting absolute filler. We may as well start over for all that's going on.

Traveller, please remind me of why your vote is on KoH.
I don't put much effort into looking at claims. You can lie and no one would be able to tell unless the role exists on some other player. So no mafia would claim cop or doc for the stupid risk of it.

They probably would. If the real cop/doctor counterclaims, they win themselves an auto kill on town PR, and if they don't, the scum can get away with a lot.

[GreyICE]

Nacho, do you really have no opinion on the matter? I've rarely seen competing wagons day 1 where both of them were scum. Especially in a 7:2 newbie game. That borders on a total, complete miracle.

So we're going to play a game. You're going to tell me which one you'd vote for and why, and then you are going to lay down a vote. You know as well as I do that a scum quickhammer day 1 in F11 is no big deal - you trade a townie for a scum and two night action phases, that's frequently more than enough for a win.

Is that a serious statement that you have no opinion on the matter?

[GreyICE]

Traveller, how is that reevaluation going? Could you give us a suspect list?

Nacho, do you really have no opinion on the matter? I've rarely seen competing wagons day 1 where both of them were scum. Especially in a 7:2 newbie game. That borders on a total, complete miracle.

I never said that. I said that I didn't care which one got lynched because they were both fairly scummy; obviously I feel stronger about Snipe because that's where my vote resides, but I wouldn't mind seeing panda got lynched. The game is stalling to such an extent, and it's ideal that we get a wagon with flips so the game can move forward.

Wow this is really getting nowhere...I agree with GreyICE at this point, I'd rather see Nacho or even anyone L-1 then hammer Sn1pe or me to move on and town do something productive D2 then sit around waiting for a wagon to finish and have scums lurking happily behind our posts. I'll claim VI for trying to be overly and ignorantly aggressive in my first game. But my vote stays on Sn1pe because in my point of view, he is still the scummiest at this point.

But don't lose that aggression completely. Just try honing it a bit more, as a piece of advice.

Okay, I'll buy that reasoning. I feel it, you feel it, Panda feels it. Frankly, PandaBear's last post seemed more likely to come from town genuinely fed up with this level of lurking than scum. And I'm generally fed up with this level of lurking myself. I check this thread, see nothing has been posted, nothing has changed, etc.

I just feel that that sentiment is more town than scum, and Sn1pe has done nothing to make me think anything other than 'he finds some stuff scummy' and 'he's lurking.'

I honestly feel it's very hard to scumhunt with this general activity level, and I've tried my damnedest to bring it up. We have interesting answers to questions, which I could analyze if I thought anyone would care. We have votes, and actions, and... nothing.

Snipe finds some stuff vaguely scummy and has almost no input on anything happening. He weakly buddies me and nacho, and follows me and Bristep's vote with little reasoning of his own.

Well fine. I don't think Panda's scum, that sentiment didn't seem to come from someone overly concerned with their own survival. If Sn1pe is town, I don't see any scumhunting occurring.

Vote:Sn1pe

I am going to start kicking down doors so we can get a real day tomorrow. And I've got my fingers crossed that he's very lazy scum, 'cause not much he's done seems town. It is hard to work up the motivation to scumhunt when you know all you'll find is townies and your partner, right Sn1pe?

[GreyICE]

That's L-1 btw.

[GreyICE]

Page 5 and 6 make me think that Sn1 may be town.
If I'm right about Sn1 being town, then at least 1 scum is probably voting them. Panda is the most suspicious of the people voting Sn1, so I suspect Panda. GreyICE would be my second suspect from the Sn1 wagon.

What about pages five and six gives you such a town feel off Sn1pe? I'm not happy about this post, Hero. #136 seems very town to me, and right after I made that point, Sn1pe makes a very similar post. After lurking for a nice long time. That doesn't feel very town to me.

I'm just not getting what gives you the town vibe, especially after you say pages 1-4 didn't read so well for him.

[GreyICE]

Okay, I get your point on the three town reads (though it's 4 really, he adds Nacho as an afterthought), but I'm not overwhelmingly impressed with the reasoning there, nor am I overwhelmingly impressed with four town reads in this setup. I've legitimately backtracked on town reads as town simply because things changed inbetween me giving the read and me changing the read. Sure, I can usually articulate what they are, but changing reads isn't inherently scummy, and none of the reasoning he gave was very strong - it'd be easy enough to go back. Hell, I just changed my read on Panda based on his most recent post, that doesn't make me scum.

I really have two questions:

1) Why do you think Panda would be the better wagon? (Followup: If you don't, why do you say that Panda would be scummy tomorrow?)
2) Before it was a feeling that Snipe is town, now it's an assumption. I don't mind analysis based on assumption, but it seems a tad premature if we don't even know his flip.

P.S. I always walk a fine line in newbie games on setup speculation. Too much is distinctly anti-town, since people will chime in asking stuff, and it turns into a combination role-fish/time-waste. On the other hand, I remember reading through a game when I was looking for reads in a mini-normal, and one of the people chimed up and asked the IC how a cop should be played. Guess what power role was killed that night? I can't help but think a little information is better than none. I'm slowly working on 'things I should tell newbies' versus TMI in my newbie games.

[GreyICE]

A) Between 1 and 6 (more is obv fail, zero is bad). It's not about quantity, it's about quality. Most of them are for weak reasoning that I think would be easy to backtrack on later. Like 'me and nacho trying to help the town by asking questions and pushing people' (well, they were trying to look pro-town, but this nifty piece of evidence came up). Or traveler being cheeky (well, I guess maybe he could be cheeky town). It's just not very strong reads or reasoning, and it echoed what had been said by several other people earlier in the thread. There was no real authenticity to it. In ISO it looks okay, but it is not a very strong argument of towniness.

B) I've found scum tend to have weak/bad/sheeped reasoning more often than town. Reason being they have no need for 'reasoning' on whether they're scum or town (yes, newbie lecture, newbie game). So it'd naturally make me suspicious of the player. I liked Panda better, but that last post just gave me a very strong town vibe. It was very townie frustration with the pace, and suggesting lynching himself with barely any mention of Snipe seems town.

C) You stated that it wasn't likely for scum to give four town reads. This seems ridiculous to me, as anyone whose halfway decent will have scum and town reads that change over the course of the game. At that time, he needed to give town reads to keep Nacho happy. He gave some. If they changed, would anyone necessarily call him out on it? I don't know. More to the point, I doubt he knows, and I doubt giving one weak town read or saying "you're all sorta scummy" would have been the better move for scum there.

1) In fact pretty much next sentence you say that your reads are very fluid right now, which means that if you gave four town reads, you might easily change them over the course of the next few days. Would that be scummy? Would it prevent Herodotus scum from giving me four town reads? I doubt it. If I asked you for four town reads, and you gave them, it would probably say very little about your alignment, and you later changing them would probably say very little about your alignment.

As for the assumption, fair enough. Have to work with something given the content level of this game :p

[GreyICE]

It kinda defeats the point of town tells when someone does one, I think they're town and say so, and the other obvious suspect immediately does it.

It's why there's no real formalized system of tells - scum can fake it.

[GreyICE]

Usually on this site, if someone says "town read" as a noun, they mean "a person they think is town".
So when I say that Sn1pe29 gave three town reads, I mean Sn1pe29 named three people he thought were likely to be town.

Thanks for the clarification. Thought a town read was some kind of action or word that indicated a player was town.

A single action or statement that gives you a reason to believe something is called a "tell."

Like a classic (and normally useless nowadays) "scumtell" is this sort of post:

VOTE: Player A
And because of X,Y, Z
FOS: Player B

Player B being a scumbuddy, Player A being town. Basically it's distancing and 'straighten up buddy!' built into one post.

Reads are typically broader and deeper than that. It's not a single post or action, it's a bunch of things put together that make up a "read."

@Panda: Questioning can serve all sorts of purposes. For me, I usually do it for three reasons:

1) I am genuinely curious as to their answer because I want their input on the situation
2) I don't have a read on the person and want to see how they think, act, and feel
3) I'm looking for extra information about their actions

It's usually a little from each category. Questions with little purpose and weak/no followup are (outside of RQS) generally considered scummy because questions are generally "townie" due to the above motivations - but a lack of followup when the answers were weak can indicate that the person doesn't really care about their questions being answered (aka they're just trying to "look town").

And that's been my theory discussion for the day, and has probably used up my allotted theory discussion for a newbie.

Maybe it will at least get people talking. Not that I could discuss mafia theory for days or anything

[GreyICE]

I see that Grey and I might end up disagreeing on a few things in the course of this game. For instance, I don't personally see questions without follow-up as inherently scummy. It's probably good that we have different approaches. I also hope Grey isn't planning to call it scummy that I'm talking more about panda and Thul but haven't changed my vote from Traveller.

I wasn't actually inclined to call anything you've done scummy right up until this weird preemptive defense. But hell, you've contributed (since you replaced in) like 5x as much as the rest of the town, so <3, buddies forever.

I don't see questions without followup as scummy, but I see questions without a real purpose that are given weak answers and never followed up as scummy. One of the best ways to catch MoI scum, for instance, is if he's spamming questions at anyone, but doesn't really seem that interested or concerned with what answers he's getting.

[GreyICE]

Oh for God's sake, Jora is as random as last time.

Nothing's changed.

[GreyICE]

Competing wagons day 1! I am a happy, happy man.

[GreyICE]

We've only got a couple of hours and we really should lynch someone. Will one of the nacho people please vote snipe?

I've already said I would if needed.
Tarson, if Sn1pe votes Nacho, they will both be at L-1. What would you think at that point?

We can mostly assume that Sn1pe would have preferred to lynch Nacho rather than himself, since Sn1 was guaranteed (to himself) to be town, while Nacho might have been scum (as far as Sn1 knew.)
So if Sn1 had posted, he should have voted Nacho.
Which means that they each needed one person to change their mind.
In addition, I had already stated that I would hammer Sn1 if needed. So... why did you make this request?

I'd like the four people who wanted to lynch Sn1 to tell us which of you were most likely to be intentionally mislynching.

I don't have a scumread on Nacho, and that means that the two wagons were probably town/town. In those situations, I'd look more for people saying "well I could vote A or B" and then voting for a larger wagon, or not expressing much interest in the lynch. I'll look back and see, because those are exactly the sort of votes you forget.

[GreyICE]

Okay, Hero, I've looked at the wagon. If I had to choose the laziest vote on it, it'd be Tarsonis.

However I'm not inclined to look there because, as I said, I think both wagons are town. Panda/Sn1pe was (if my reads are correct) town/town, and the Nacho wagon was little better, so I think there was a lot of sholder-shrugging from the scum.

If I had to choose the worst vote, overall, it's Thil13. He seemed deliberately uninterested in having his vote on any viable lynch wagon yesterday. And that Traveller vote was miserable. Does anyone really think he's scum?

[GreyICE]

Vote: Thil13

[GreyICE]

Because of hero's specific question: "I'd like the four people who wanted to lynch Sn1 to tell us which of you were most likely to be intentionally mislynching."

If I had to pick the most likely, due to the reasoning given with the vote, I'd say tarsonis.

If I guessed the most likely person to be scum overall, based on how much they seem to care where their vote and actions are going, it's Thil13. I get the impression that Thil13 just wants to drift by without attracting attention.

[GreyICE]

Things that came up during my reread:
Icey:
What finally brought you to the Snipe side yesterday? The post before your Snipe vote, you were questioning me because I found both panda and snipe scummy, and the next, you were switching as if you felt the same way. Also, is that town read on panda still translating to today?

You were happy when you saw competing bandwagons. What information did you get from that bandwagon on me that you wouldn't have gotten otherwise?

I was questioning because I didn't see Sn1pe and Panda as equally scummy, and I've literally NEVER seen scum/scum competing wagons day 1 in F11. I suppose if you dig back through the thousand newbie games that have been played (or several hundred I guess, with this setup) you might find ONE where both scum were competing wagons on day 1. Maybe.

I switched because I caught a strong town read from Panda, and was not in love with Sn1pe's lurking or play. I kept my vote there when he started to sheep my named town-tells from Panda.

As for what I learned from competing bandwagons - I learned that there was a last second push towards you, after the Panda wagon collapsed. I assumed it was a last-ditch attempt to save a scumbuddy yesterday, but that apparently wasn't the case.

Was it to line up today's lynch? I'm unsure. Regardless, Thil13 does not seem to either particularly care about hunting scum or where his vote is. Newbie? Maybe. I remain unconvinced.

[GreyICE]

We're running low on time. I think that Sn1pe29 is town, but we need to lynch someone before the deadline hits. I'll let Nacho or Grey explain why, but it's strongly accepted by the community that letting a day end without lynching is usually bad, especially on day 1. In this particular example, there's a chance Sn1 is scum, and also, knowing his alignment will help us to figure out the people who are trying to lynch him. So eventually I will place the hammer vote if no other options rise.

Sounds like nice, friendly advice from an experienced player, right? Even offers to have two others corroborate the advice. But that would also be a shrewd move to make sure that a full complement of townies (minus the first night's murder victim) wouldn't have an additional day to try to weed out the scum. Previously, my case against Hero was based on his predecessor, King of Harolds, and I was prepared to back down from it. However, my "Hero"-ic suspicions (pardon the pun) have been rekindled.

For now, I'll keep my vote with you, Nacho. But I may change to Hero at any time. Do you or GreyICE want to comment on Hero's quote above? Willing to listen.

No lynch is mathematically a poor option from a game theory standpoint. It costs you a lynch, as the scum ration is 7:2 at the start. Since one mislynch costs you two town (one lynched, one NKed), it goes 7:2, 5:2, 3:2. Therefore, unless Hero was 100% certain sn1pe was town beyond the smallest shadow of doubt (which he could only be if he was scum) he should hammer, because otherwise it costs us a lynch for no information gained.

Many veterans will deadline hammer for that reason.

King of Harolds was reasonably scummy at the start of yesterday (though I think some of it was overblown for deadline reasons) but Hero hasn't given me a lot of reason to guess that he's scum. And I think I pushed him fairly hard with questions.

[GreyICE]

@Thil13:

Is there anything you want to do with your vote? Anything you find scummy? Any candidates for lynch? Anyone you find town?

@Tars:

I understand the concept of sheeping people you view as 'better players.' Why me instead of Hero or Nacho?

@Hero:

Sorry about the hand! If you feel up to a quicky - whose most likely to be Nacho's partner (since you seem convinced of his scumminess)?

Nacho:

I know from ------- the lurking is a null tell, but I'm underwhelmed with your play in general. I think I see what you're doing with the Tars vote, but who is the scumz? What are they doing?

Also your question to Traveler is from the perspective that he's definitely town. It's most likely true that one of you, me, and hero is scum (I'll provisionally agree that statistics points that way) - but if he were scum, he'd know which one. You're asking him to make a good case. Is your town read on him just that strong? Or was this a slip...

Panda - I have a town read on you, time to make good on it. Scumhunt.

[GreyICE]

Grrr.

Nacho, who is the scumz? Don't tell me Traveller is town and Thil is sn1pe part 2 (especially when you were voting for Sn1pe yesterday), tell me who you think is scum around here. Tars? Hero? Me? VOTE FOR EM.

The tars vote has done whatever you wanted it to you.

I just wish you'd stop being cryptic and tell us what you're thinking

[GreyICE]

The scum lurks and waits for us to start a wagon on town then steps forward to join the wagon.

MAKE ME HAPPIER ABOUT MY TOWN READ NACHO

[GreyICE]

*sigh*

No matter how many times I reread the game, I just don't see the case on Nacho. At all. Maybe I'm blind, but as far as I can tell he was:

- Pushing newbies rather hard to determine alignment
- Starting wagons
- Had a long absence sitewide

I just don't see this as scummy.

thil13 is a weak scumread.
Tars is a townread
Herod still reads townish.
Panda is a townread
Traveler is a VERY STRONG townread.

I need to go through and figure out what I'm fucking up.

Anyone have any idea why Bristep/Jora is dead? Beyond the fact that both were obvtown?

[GreyICE]

- Pushing newbies rather hard to determine alignment
- Starting wagons
- Had a long absence sitewide

I just don't see this as scummy.

I agree that what you listed there isn't scummy, in fact I think the first made him look town for the first half of D1, and the second and third were more or less null. But I don't see those 3 things as the whole story. I'm not up for restating the case I've made or trying to explore my gut to expand the case right now... but I think you'll find a lot of thoughts in my ISO about why I suspect he's scum. And also consider that there is pretty much always at least 1 mafia on every mislynch.

Uh... no.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p2814409

I actually was about to bring up this, but I replaced into that game, and used a very similar argument to that in LyLo.

Shadow1psc (5): Lighthouse, Ythan, Tuncali, startransmission, Shadow1psc
Ythan (2): Krazy,

Jackofhearts2005

Nonvoters:

Nobody Special

, Deckard182

Slot I was in? Jack of Hearts. I was the scum goon.

Two town wagons just lacks an overwhelming motivation for town to jump on. Sure, there was the selfhammer, but Deckard or Krazy would have moved to shadow eventually even without scum prompting - and if they didn't, Ythan was the obvious 'other wagon' to move to.

It's a good starting place, but I don't see it as more than that when both wagons are town. If one was scum, well, then it would be interesting. And nearly that argument caused the day 2 lynch on Ythan (plus he was pushing Shadow very hard).

And... Nobody Special and me swept the town in LyLo.

Sorry, just don't buy it. Sure, each game is its own snowflake, I don't love meta, but insisting there's ALWAYS scum on a town lynch wagon is silly.

Now if it's scum-town, I'd agree, but we don't have the mislynches to flip people based on guesses on their alignment, or for information

[GreyICE]

I actually devoted most of 258 to Nacho.

Could Nacho snow me as scum? I'm inclined to say he could. Could you snow me as scum? Probably. King of Harolds was not my strongest town read (or a very strong one) and this tunnel on nacho is giving me the creeps. If I'm honest about your NK options above, #6 looks a lot stronger than #4. Were I scum shooting someone out of the thread to cause a mislynch, the second most vocal attacker, who also happens to be a newer player and much worse at making cases would be a good choice.

Of course then we get back into the entire Night kill WIFOM, and ignore the obvious option that someone thought they saw a power role tell, but...

Hero, how does this differ from what you'd expect from his town play? What's the exact change? I'm usually not overwhelmed by meta cases, so what's he doing here that's just not town?

[GreyICE]

I read him as town. Weaker than Panda or Traveler, stronger than tars, you, or Thil.

The only caveat I'd add to that, and the only reason I'd question it is that he's a better player than me. So I don't know if he could blitz me.

Then again, the last game I was in he was obvscum except for the whole flipping town thing, so... (damn meta)

[GreyICE]

Competing wagons day 1! I am a happy, happy man.

From post #202, Grey seemed happy that there was confusion about who to lynch. Why? I would think scum would be pleased that there is no definitive evidence as to who they are. Supposing Grey were scum, he might be pleased not only to see a split lynch vote, but even more pleased if neither accused were scum. We already know that Sn1pe was town, perhaps Nacho is also. This would also fit the quote from TO above, whether or not she is scum (she would just want to get it over with).

Competing wagons on day 1, especially multiple, are a good indication people care about the lynch. When there's one wagon, town or scum, it usually means the rest of the days are rather lackluster. If it's a one-shot town wagon with no strong competition, the scum usually didn't have to push it hard, and the town usually didn't oppose it hard, meaning that it's hard to get any good reads.

Competing wagons means people have someone they rather lynch. Maybe scum pushing a town wagon. Maybe scum distancing because the town wagon was happening no matter what they did. Who knows?

The fact is that if day 1 has one, uncontested wagon that goes to lynch near deadline, it is almost certainly a town loss unless the town gets lucky with power roles.

[GreyICE]

Waiting for Nacho8, Thil13, and Panda.

Yeah no fucking kidding.

Almost down with just declaring today a lurker lynch day and sheeping you on Nacho to get some FUCKING ACTIVITY around here.

[GreyICE]

Seriously

Our chances of winning

If no one is posting

Are zero

[GreyICE]

sorry again guys. Just mafia isn't a big priority.

Hero, I see you asking a lot of questions, but you haven't made a case on anybody. Why is that? Are you not garnering anything from people's answers, or are you just using those questions to make it look like you are scum hunting?

ARGH

NACHO I LOVE THAT CASE THAT'S GOOD SCUMHUNTING

BUT HE'S NOT EVEN READING THE THREAD

WHY GOD WHY

[GreyICE]

So he's scum with Hero and shows up for one post in like the past five eons to kick dirt at his partner for not doing anything, then floats off again?

It'd explain Hero's reaction, I suppose, but that isn't even bad scumplay, that isn't even bad play, that'd be completely inexplicable.

Thil/hero doesn't seem right. Hero I don't see with Tars, which would leave just Panda (or Traveller, but...NO). And that'd make me wrong on my town read. Which would literally make me a sad panda if I unvoted a scum wagon for a town wagon because of a town tell.

Meh, I'm gonna wait for response. If it resembles 'THAT'S JUST OMGUS' though...

[GreyICE]

I'm going to pretend that this is a newbie and that what I just heard doesn't make me want to scream and lynch immediately.

Thil, with 9 players we get 2 mislynches (aka town lynches). Missing a lynch, loses us a player with no gain. With a night kill, that leaves tomorrow:
6:2
Then lynch+NK
4:2
Then we have to no lynch.

Even statistically that's a loss. If we lynch randomly (and lynches are NOT random) we have: 2/9 to hit scum day 1, 2/7 day 2, 2/5 day 3. Giving that up for 2/8 and 2/6 is silly beyond all belief.

There are very rare circumstances where no lynch is acceptable (follow the cop, MyLo, kingmaker) but outside of those, that should never be done.

[GreyICE]

I didn't quite mean it the way you took it, Panda.

With no claims and no PR flips, it's unknown if there's a cop, so it's potentially lethal to bus a partner hard enough to get them lynched. I don't mean 'distance a little,' I mean bus completely. I'd like to rule out this being a scum v. scum fight (though I won't rule out town v. town).

Tars coming straight out and saying it looks like Jora shot was to get nacho mislynched is really odd if the goal was to... mislynch Nacho. It almost does seem like the purpose of that shot (although #1, PR hunting, is just as good). I don't like tars as nacho partner.

I don't know if Thil came into this thread just to FOS his scumbuddy. If so, it's remarkably bizarre behavior.

Trav is town (even if he likes his jokes)...

And that leaves you. Who I read as town after the wagon yesterday, and who has given me no indication that you're Hero's partner.

I'm aware that I'm boldly taking a firm waffle while sitting on a fence. Call this paranoia, but I can't help wondering if I'm witnessing an epic town v. town fight while scum are laughing their asses off.

[GreyICE]

Grrrrr

I need to reread traveller and Tars' interactions now. Does Traveller really just have those big balls and an epically good townie tone in his first game of mafia? (LOL NO I'D VOTE THE CLAIMED COP OVER HIM IN LYLO) Would Tars really post the reasons for a Jora shot in the thread first post? (Uh... maybe?)

Whose a good nacho partner? Thil? Tars?

Huh.

[GreyICE]

Ok, the day's activity featured Nacho accusing Hero of being scum and Hero's response to the same, as well as his reasons for declaring Nacho scummy. My vote has been on Nacho for awhile now, but I have had my suspicions about Hero as well. But, it's become apparent to me that no more than one of them is scum. If they are both scum, they are giving each other up, each hoping not to be lynched.

My reads have always been more about attitudes and reactions, rather than looking for specific words or phrases in posts as being "scummy". I previously mentioned this is harder than doing it face-to-face because of the lack of nonverbals (body language, expressions, etc.). I wasn't entirely right; you can still detect tone of "voice", even in a board post.

Nacho is giving a vibe of desperation, trying to turn attention from himself to one of his accusers. His claims seemed more general and unsupported than Hero's responses. I need to go back and read some old posts to validate that, but I will say that my vote stays with Nacho for now.

The other question is: who is the other scum? Will have to address that in a later post. Have a situation just come up at home. Cheers for now.

Can you give a few examples of points that nacho makes or lines in his post that make you think 'desperate?'

[GreyICE]

No comment from the thil wagon on the fact that Nacho is scum? I'm feeling impatient. In fact, I'm ready to end the day right now with a Nacho lynch. No need to drag out what should have happened yesterday and

what will definitely result in a scumflip.

HERO ARE YOU BUSSING A BUDDY FOR TOWNCRED?

[GreyICE]

No comment from the thil wagon on the fact that Nacho is scum? I'm feeling impatient. In fact, I'm ready to end the day right now with a Nacho lynch. No need to drag out what should have happened yesterday and what will definitely result in a scumflip.

Tarsonis is the name of a fictional planet.

I thought it was "Tarson is ocelot"; that you have a pet ocelot named Tarson.

I hate this post.

I hate everything about this post.

I want the person writing this post to die.

GIMME SOME INSIGHT NOWISH

ALL MY PARANOIA SENSES ARE FUCKING TINGLING HERE HERO

NOT HAPPY

NOT HAPPY

NOT HAPPY AT ALL

[GreyICE]

As for what I learned from competing bandwagons - I learned that there was a last second push towards you, after the Panda wagon collapsed. I assumed it was a last-ditch attempt to save a scumbuddy yesterday, but that apparently wasn't the case.

FWIW, if I had been scum with Sn1, I probably wouldn't have tried to save him.

Do you believe Nacho's characterization that this was a

WIFOM arguments saying that he wouldn't save Snipe if he was scum

?

If not, then Nacho8 is either deceiving or not reading.
Panda said something similar earlier, but I could believe that he just didn't understand.

The WIFOM I see is specifically in the words "with Sn1pe."

Building town cred as a reliable gage of whose town by weakly opposing a mislynch is a strong strategy as scum. So would you oppose the mislynch of Sn1pe if you were scum and knew it was likely to happen anyway?

It is WIFOM-y.

I'll tell you this much. I like where my vote is just fine. I'm going to do a reread and stop fence sitting at some point, but for now Thil is contributing jack shit, and in a scummy manner. That justification for his "FOS" on you was WEAK.

I'm not happy with you trying to hurry the lynch here.

And I really need Nacho to stick in the thread so I can play Q&A. I have some very different questions if this is going to continue.

NACHO GIMME A TIME YOU'RE GOING TO BE ON SO I CAN PROBE THIS ONE. YOU FLOAT IN AND OUT LIKE A GHOST.

[GreyICE]

I'm not happy with you trying to hurry the lynch here.

To the newbies:
Do not let the phrases "hurry the lynch" or "rush the lynch" enter your vocabulary. Never accuse anyone of either of these cliches.

Yeah maybe I've been playing too many games with Fate, but as scum he LOVES to scream "WHY ARE WE WAITING LETS LYNCH OBVSCUM NOW WHAT IS EVERYONE DOING KEKEKEKEKEKEKE"

So I'll chill here. Because despite what you and nacho seem to think, I don't like the idea that this is a binary day. I want Nacho to answer some questions. I want some fucking content from some slots. I want to see what Thil does. I want to see what Tars does. Got it? If you're scum and Nacho's town, and we walk into LyLo, I have no idea who his buddy is. If Nacho's scum and you're town, well, that still leaves me with at least two candidates and that's if I'm right on Panda.

If you're both town then I'm extraordinarily unhappy right now.

The WIFOM I see is specifically in the words "with Sn1pe."

Darn, I was hoping you knew what the term WIFOM meant.
Suppose I said "since Traveller, Xopa, and I opposed lynching Sn1, and the mafia want to lynch townies, that proves we're all town." Then, someone would certainly reply "the scum would oppose lynching him because they would want us to think that - so it's scummier to oppose lynching the townie." Then someone might say "but in that case, the scum would support lynching him because that would be viewed as something townies would be more likely to do." And the logic would double back on itself, over and over.
That's what WIFOM is.

A "WIFOM argument" for something refers to making a case [that a given person is town or scum] based on either side of the WIFOM.

A hypothetical statement - you probably all know what that means, but it's one that says "If you assume X to be true, then you can also say Y is true."
Example: If I walk through that door, I will be outside.

A counterfactual hypothetical comment is a hypothetical statement where it is known that statement X is false, but the statement says "If X had been true, then Y would also be true."
Example: If the electricity was out, I would not be typing this post right now.

I made a statement about what would have happened if Sn1 and I had been mafia together. That's a counterfactual statement. Because Sn1 was town, he and I never could have been buddies, and this was publicly known information when I made that statement. I did not make any argument for anything on the basis of it. The purpose of my statement was to provide information regarding the hypothetical scenario that Grey said he had been thinking about during Day 1.

Okay, that makes sense. I admit I didn't see it upon reading his post or your quote. So, huh. That's a firm misrep.

Vote: Nacho

Unvote

Consider that my pseudo L-1 if the last completed newbie game I was in didn't have a townie ninja quickhammer for the LyLo loss, Nacho.

[GreyICE]

No comment from the thil wagon on the fact that Nacho is scum? I'm feeling impatient. In fact, I'm ready to end the day right now with a Nacho lynch. No need to drag out what should have happened yesterday and what will definitely result in a scumflip.

Tarsonis is the name of a fictional planet.

I thought it was "Tarson is ocelot"; that you have a pet ocelot named Tarson.

OOC: I wish I had a pet ocelot, but I don't think theyr'e allowed in my college.

I'm not willing to end the day yet, but you made a good case on Nacho. I would prefer a Nacho lynch to a thil lynch because we get more information out of that (same can be said for lynching you though information-wise but I get a town feeling from you).

I'm not entirely sure why you made the counterfactual statement, but it seems to be something I would be more likely to post as town than scum.

I can't really add anything. I'm not as confident as you are that Nacho will be scum but confident enough that his lynch will either hit scum or make scum obvious to support it.

AND THIS IS WHY WE WAIT HERO

IT'S NOT GOOD TO END THE DAY IMMEDIATELY.

Vote: Nacho

L-1.

Lets see if scum quickhammers

[GreyICE]

Unvote

The ending to a game I'll link to when the modscene is done has me depressed.

You two CERTAIN this ain't town on town? We were locked into one of these 'day before LyLo dichotomies' and we lynched both parties... oh look, game ended, and not in town victory.

I've got some more questions, but I'm just going to throw that one out there while I'm reading

[GreyICE]

Fate: Vigilante Ventriloquist, RedCoyote, AlmasterGM, VP Baltar, chesskid3 (Lynch!)
VP Baltar: GreyICE, Fate, Vigilante Ventriloquist, RedCoyote (Lynch!)

Two herp tunnels that ended really poorly.

Nacho:

1) Can you clean up your formatting a bit? It's text walling a bit badly. Makes it hard to understand some shit.

2) Your last commentary on Sn1pe before the lynch was:

Snipe, could you explain why you think claiming town is scummy?
My vote stays for now.

For all that you say Hero had weak reads, that doesn't feel like a particularly strong conviction he would flip scum. What made it worthwhile riding that wagon to the end of day?

3) What have you learned about the players from the questions you've asked? Rereading the ISO, I see some focused on new players to bring them out, but others aren't. In particular:

- You ignored Bristep123 pretty much entirely
- You ignored me except for a few weak reads
- You've ignored Thil except for one or two questions that haven't had much followup (TBF: I understand that one)
- You've pretty much ignored Traveller

Meanwhile you've focused a lot on:
- Panda
- Sn1pe
- Hero

Tars is kind of in the middle.

This is an odd pattern of interactions. What's your reasoning here?

4) Assume for a second hero is town, because I just got kicked in the ass over redoing my reads - what's the most likely team?

5) The misrep on the entire answer to the Sn1pe question - does Hero's answer make sense? Is that still WIFOM? How hard is that worth pushing?

6) What's the scummiest thing that:
- I have done?
- Traveller has done?
- Panda has done?

We all seem to have slid into comfortable town reads to you. Have you questioned or poked that?

7) What's your impression of Panda's vote for Hero?

8) What's your impression of Traveller's vote for you?

9) What the hell do you think of #311? I'll be honest, it looks like a scumbuddy looking to jump on an 'inevitable' lynch for town credit, but leaving open landing on the 'town' side.

[GreyICE]

Hero, mind taking a gander at my questions, and seeing what you could answer there, and what makes sense for Nacho? I'd like a little more general input on other possibilities in this game from you, and a lot of your answers have been very dismissive (well if X is this, Y, but I know X isn't this!).

[GreyICE]

GLASS AS A TOWNIE!

<3

[GreyICE]

Welcome... I don't really like this game, I think I won't be doing anymore newbie games, it's just too monotonous for me.

Everything I said previously stands firm, but I am willing to give Hero a chance and go with his logic. If Nacho flips town, I will be even more suspicious of Hero.

VOTE: Nacho

I pray Nacho flips scum, because I want you dead before LyLo, and somehow I think the scumteam won't do it.

[GreyICE]

This is it. This is fucking it.

Another prod on Nacho? Another damn day without any questions answered? Waiting for us to get our act together and vote for town are you?

Fuck this. Fuck all of this.

Vote: Nacho

I'll kill Thil tomorrow and I swear unto god if one of you isn't scum I will break my keyboard in half.

L-1, claim, answer questions, do SOMETHING nacho. Time is wasting, and I'm fine with dead.

[GreyICE]

Unvote

What the FUCK was that vote?

[GreyICE]

Seriously man, when did we go from 'hero' to 'nacho' on zero commentary?

AAARRRGGGGGHHHH THIS TOWN THIS TOWN.

Imma gonna go beat my head against a wall now.

[GreyICE]

No you know what? Whatever.

Screw Nacho, if he gets quicklynched, well, it's a newbie game, and he should know the risks. I still can't help screaming at how he ALWAYS sits here and waits FOREVER to answer anything. Newbies will be scummy as heck given any time, and I think he's exploiting that.

Vote: Nacho

Whatever.

So fine with a hammer landing right now.

Nacho... if you're town, this is why activity is nice, mmmkay?

[GreyICE]

More helpful comments to help us make a decision.

Will be back, tomorrow.

I swear unto god if those are not the bestest answers ever, it will just be a wall of me screaming "HAMMER"

[GreyICE]

You think I'm going to need encouragement?

Oh right, you're not currently voting.

It's Thil, the person whose first post in like a week was attacking you for not making a case, and panda who was voting for you before hopping.

This town is so strange, but I'm not letting Nacho off the hook for a bunch of newbies being odd. He can and should be doing more than this, and the way he hits prod range every single time CANNOT be a total coincidence.

[GreyICE]

*headdesk*
*headdesk*
*headdesk*

[GreyICE]

Hero, Glass,
It's a conspiracy.
There's two scumteams
The Nacho-Tars werewolf team
And the Panda-Thil Mafia team

They're just playing with us.

[GreyICE]

OT: Hi Voided! This town is a lot less active than our town, but in fairness we had the bestest newbie town ever (not exaggerating, every non-SnowJordan played quite well).

ON TOPIC: No answers, not unvoting. *sigh* I'll wait for the internet to come back up, and VoidedMafia doing a catchup.

Hero, I'd prefer to wait for voided, but I leave the hammer entirely up to you. Because if you're scum, it's passed my 'not giving a shit' limit, I'm not voting for you outside of LyLo.

[GreyICE]

Great, a cop claim, the last resort of every scum in trouble.

I don't love your answers, but town cop? LOLNO

[GreyICE]

So far by lynching claimed power roles run up to L-1 in F11 I've hit one town.

I'd go through all the ways that Nacho's answers piss me the hell off, but it's not even worth it. Nacho, if you're town, you've managed to very cleverly disguise it.

Someone hammer.

[GreyICE]

Cop should claim if we have one.

[GreyICE]

Well time for me to claim then. I'm...













the...














nope.

Just kidding.

Looks like 7 VTs.

Well, dammit. I'd have liked a free win for once, but I've drawn Cop+Doctor once, and 7 VTs three times or so. Yeah.

[GreyICE]

Would Nacho have the sheer balls to claim Cop and clear his scumbuddy with the perfect knowledge that if she ever screwed up badly enough that him and Tarsonis would go down together?

I mean he would absolutely, 100% stake his win on Tarsonis being good enough that no one ever went 'wait if Tarsonis is scum then nacho is scum because...'

[GreyICE]

The second half is basically because the gambit is INSANELY risky. ReaperCharlie has pulled it, to my knowledge, but it's few and far between.

Basically, if someone finds you scummy enough to lynch, it immediately becomes 'lynch nacho.' With nacho already under fire, that risks him getting 1-2ed for an auto-loss.

I'd really like to hear more from VoidedMafia. If you're not scum, someone is bussing, and Thil was a MESS yesterday. I can't entirely give someone a pass for their predecessor's play. Voided is a much better player than Thil, but they got the same role PM.

[GreyICE]

Grey: Anything in particular you wish me to chip in on?

I wasn't exactly feeling up to it yesterday, what with celebrating my birthday and all. But I'm better able to focus today.

Nacho's lynch, scum suspects, who looks good and bad from yesterday's wagon.

Honestly I don't get Thil = town. Town replacing out because they don't like the pressure, or scum replacing out because they don't like the pressure? I dunno. The slot is a total and utter mess, and not having much to contribute today isn't helping.

Also this is a lot of PoE here. Tarsonis seems like an unlikely nacho partner.

Panda still has a town read, even if I wasn't fond of the behavior on the wagon yesterday. Newbies are newbies.

Traveller has been a town read all game, and I'm not going to vote for him outside of LyLo.

That leaves Thil/you.

So yeah, I'd kind of like some reads on the rest of the players.

[GreyICE]

Meh well
Okay
I'd have liked a hell of a lot more discussion
But... water under the bridge
Not like I didn't think she was scummy

Traveller - for future reference if this doesn't work out: longer days usually benefit the town (hell even if it does work out it just means you got lucky not that it's a good idea).

[GreyICE]

So I'm the closest thing we have to an IC so I'll field this one. This is called LyLo - Lynch {Correctly} or Lose.

We have one scum and two town left. If you're town, and you vote for town, scum will hammer the townie for the win.

SO DO NOT LIGHTLY TOSS DOWN YOUR VOTE.

If you're not sure you're voting for scum, you should not be voting. Period.

If someone votes for you, and the other player posts and does not hammer you, the person posting without hammering is confirmed town. So don't vote for them dammit. The only possibility is (if you're town) that scum is voting for you as soon as the vote stays there long enough for the 3rd player to hammer you.

Will have more to say later, but for now? NO DAMN VOTES.

This article should be helpful:
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Lylo

[GreyICE]

It's a good question. Usually when "very good, townie" players are alive in LyLo it's worth taking a good long look at how town they were.

My best guess is either:

OK, the newbie is taking the hammer and calling for a quicklynch. If TO is scum, as I suspect she is, we're done. If not, we used our last free lynch and

I have a good idea who the scum is.

Vote: tarsonisoscelot

Which voided thought meant him, and the idea that someone wants to use the argument 'you're too good to be alive' against me (which is... kinda hard to respond to tbh. Sorry I didn't make the scum NK me?).

Or the argument "you're too good to be alive." Possibly my reads have been horribly off.

[GreyICE]

Vote Count 1.03

King of Harolds (3) - Nachomamma8, Traveller, pandabear
pandabear (3) - thil13, bristep123, GreyICE
thil13 (1) - Sn1pe29
Traveller (1) - tarsonisocelot

Not Voting (1) - King of Harolds

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

pandabear (3) - bristep123, GreyICE, Sn1pe29
Sn1pe29 (3) - Nachomamma8, tarsonisocelot, pandabear
Traveller (2) - King of Harolds, thil13
King of Harolds (1) - Traveller

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.[/color]

These wagons are critical to understanding this game. At L-2, with the town generally apathetic enough that he might have been able to force it through, Nacho decided KoH(Hero) wasn't scum, and moved to Sn1pe. This is actually a strong

town

tell, and one of the reasons that I was reluctant to vote for him for so long. Why does scum care if KoH or Sn1pe gets lynched? He didn't force a claim out of KoH, so he wasn't PR hunting, he just decided someone probably wouldn't flip scum and tried to remove the wagon.

Four times in five, if not nine in ten, that's an action taken by town. Unfortunately, as I said to Hero, Nacho is probably in the top 10% of players on this site, so these actions are a lot more null flavored when he's doing them.

But if Panda is the partner, Nacho did them with his partner at L-2. That's pretty damn ballsy for Nacho. Definitely possible, but ballsy. And I really dislike how Thil voted for hero then flopped it to Nacho, it screams scum. So at the moment, I'm leaning towards Voided. But I'm going to do another reread, Nacho is nothing if not a calculated risk-taker, and there's probably instructions in the QT for what to do in a lot of situations - he would help his newbie partner.

[GreyICE]

Panda, why did you trust me and Hero when we said to hammer the claimed cop? Your vote had been on hero, and you already said if Nacho flipped town you were going to be suspicious of both of us. Did it occur to you that if Nacho was town the scum would have known he was the real cop, and thus been quite happy to lynch him?

Also, do you think Nacho would defend a newbie scumbuddy on day 1 or push them?

What information would you have gained out of Hero's lynch?

You voted Nacho mid day 1, what made you change your vote?
(this is probably less important, since I've virtually never seen an IC lynched day 1, and I'm usually strongly against it)

@Voided: you said a lot of what Tarsonis did wasn't very town at all yesterday when you voted. What specifically did you see that wasn't very town?

Why did you think that Traveller suspected you?

[GreyICE]

@Voided: you said a lot of what Tarsonis did wasn't very town at all yesterday when you voted. What specifically did you see that wasn't very town?

...I've hit a brain fart trying to think of how I can put this. You may interpret this as "A HA! VM doesn't have anything against her for her vote!" But I still feel like my vote analysis and the things that both Traveller (about her never voting for Nacho AT ALL) and Panda (don't remember what he said about her) answered this.

Alright. I admit this is me trying to have a bit of wagon discussion on the D3 wagon which we never got to have, and it's probably all WIFOM material, as the big question is answered (Tars is town).

Why did you think that Traveller suspected you?

Already answered above.

Yeah, we kind of crossposted a bit there. That makes sense. Although frankly none of Traveler's scumreads strike me as ultra-strong.

God I hate LyLo. The evidence keeps saying "Voided" and there's an annoying little voice in the back of my head saying "You're still alive and you thought Thil was scum and Panda was town since day 2..."

I need to reread Panda wagon again.

[GreyICE]

Panda, why did you trust me and Hero when we said to hammer the claimed cop? Your vote had been on hero, and you already said if Nacho flipped town you were going to be suspicious of both of us. Did it occur to you that if Nacho was town the scum would have known he was the real cop, and thus been quite happy to lynch him?

Also, do you think Nacho would defend a newbie scumbuddy on day 1 or push them?

What information would you have gained out of Hero's lynch?

1) I trusted you guys in the fact that more cases than not, a person put on a wagon that claims cop (during L-1) is scum. If he indeed was cop, then I'd definitely be suspicious of Hero and we'd probably have lynched him. I'd also be suspicious of you if Nacho was town. But he wasn't.

2) I don't know what Nacho would do, as this is my first game and Nacho seems to be a very good player so it's hard to know what his play style this game is. A Nacho-Thil/Void seems like he is distancing and pushing slightly, but avoids it by focusing more on other newbies like me and Sn1pe. But, a Nacho-GreyICE is almost the opposite in that you guys almost defended each other through the "Let's respect the IC and never ever lynch him D1" code.

Meh, Nacho knows better than to try and mislynch me day 1 in a newbie game

I hate self meta, but I'll do it here to defend myself on this point - I'm not lynching the IC day 1:
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p2750196

That's alignment

neutral

. I wouldn't as scum, I wouldn't as town, I wouldn't if he's my scumbuddy. I think it impacts the enjoyment and learning of the new players. Plus you're almost always losing a valuable resource to the town if you mislynch an IC.

[GreyICE]

Okay, I could write a long post about this, but I'm not going to because if I'm wrong I'll claim my lumps in the post game. This is what it boils down to:

It really depends on the extent to the town-claiming, in my opinion. The fact that I had to check back to find it tells me that tan's wasn't suspicious.

Right now, I would be OK lynching either snipe or panda. Both have seemed fairly suspicious to me up to this point compared to everyone else.

Could lynch either Panda OR Sn1pe.

I'd much rather cut off the head of the snake first, and meanwhile pray to mafia gods that thil will get involved or get replaced. There's still a chance he's town, and could have a nice big epiphany, or could be replaced by someone obvtown.

Suggests that we mislynch Hero over my push on Thil.

So Nacho doesn't care whether we lynch Panda or Sn1Pe, but he strongly feels that we should lynch Hero over Thil.

No more volumes on how scummy Thil has been. Voided is posting everywhere but here for three days now. And if Panda and Voided crossvote, I don't see myself hammering Panda.

Vote: VoidedMafia

/waits for Panda

[GreyICE]

You're supposed to at least crossvote because "I'm town and if someone is voting for me in 3 man LyLo, they're SCUM!"

Or try to convince me to lift my vote up before "that scummy Panda comes back to hammer!"



Though really Thil did play that badly

Heh, I wanted to move the wagon from Nacho to Thil day 2, that must have been so frustrating for Nacho.

[GreyICE]

The advice in the wiki for 3 player LyLo is that a disturbing amount of the time the right move in LyLo is to vote your strong town read. All of my advice on "good town play" was actually good advice but I think it was fair to leave THAT out.

I'm curious voided did you guess before the vote?

[GreyICE]

Btw nacho any objection to the QT out? It's quite boring

[GreyICE]

http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/EKDPAgkwHkK

Wouldn't mind a review myself, that was probably my most conventional scum game ever.

You were dead on on Hero but I hate taking the obvious shot

[GreyICE]

Reasoning behind it is that if someone is a strong town read, then they would be a townread for others as well.
If they were a townread for others as well, then the scum would kill them.

It's not reliable, but it's something to think about.

The other reason is that when selecting who to kill the night before the scum did not pick you.

That means they:
1) Think they can mislynch you
2) Think you will vote town.

It's usually a mixture of the two.

It's nowhere near reliable enough to be called an immutable law, but Panda was on the right track. I'm actually a little surprised that he figured it out, and it's one of the reasons Panda played very well.

[GreyICE]

I was content with how you handled activity, Equinox.

Nachomamma8 blocks Herodotus (successful)

I had a feeling that had happened.

Grey and Nacho, you must have been excited to see who your buddies were.

I think your safest approach for night 2 would have been to try to kill someone most likely to be a doctor. (I was trying to give you the impression that I was a cop, though I probably failed.) If both a cop and doctor had been alive on day 3, the game would have been a guaranteed town win.
Which makes me wonder why Nacho claimed cop instead of doctor. If he had been counterclaimed by a cop, that cop would have been protected on at least night 2, leaving Grey in trouble.

Very strong play, GreyICE. I did pick up a few things I might have held against you, but you looked like a townie.

Yeah, we were about 70% in 7 VT by end of day 1, and 95% by end of day 2. So it didn't really matter what he claimed, because the town didn't have power roles it was screamingly obvious.

[GreyICE]

For those wondering how:

- No pr tells (screamingly obvious in most newbies). No one CERTAIN someone was town, or POSITIVE nacho was scum.
- We wagoned Panda, KoH, and Sn1pe day 1, with Jora dying night 1, and none of them gave off PR tells, claimed PR, or flipped PR.
- Nose. You can smell power roles in a setup most of the time. Something about town interactions gets weird. This was so damn mountainous.

[GreyICE]

You were a lot of fun to have around!

I was sad to shoot you, but even with the hammer, I wasn't selling anyone on you being scum.

[GreyICE]

Awesome flavor!