Mini 1141 - Frogs Mafia 2 - GAME, SET, MATCH

[implosion]

VOTE: ender

Only person here I've played with before, even if it was in marathon games.

[implosion]

Sorry. I'm not going to be able to make a good post right now. I have 2 days of school left before spring break and like 3 tests within those 2 days, after that I should be good.

[implosion]

I read the thread.

Unvote, Vote: Meransiel.

To put it simply, nothing Meransiel says has any logic.

Lurkers are likely scum, but people that don't post at all

can't be scum.

Strange thing to say, could be covering up for a scumbuddy who isn't posting - more importantly, though, it makes no logical sense.

Petro, you change your vote way too often. I'm not suspecting you or anything, it's just a risky thing to do.

Cause it's weird. And usually a scum tell.

I get that you aren't voting on this because you think pj is more town overall - but how is it relevant (or what do you mean) when you say that changing one's vote is "risky" or "weird?" It's day one, with 7 to lynch... I don't see how it's risky, at all, to change votes. In fact, I don't see why you would be concerned with something being "risky" in this way... the only way I can think of it being risky would be for mafia who want to avoid looking scummy. could you clarify this?

This

could

be code. Hmm...keeping my eyes on ye...

Why would you think that something like this is code? And if you're just speculating and there's no way to tell if it's really code, why bring it up at all?

Also, Meransiel's voting pattern is really weird. RVS vote, quickly changed to a vote based on a typo... which Meransiel still hasn't changed, despite accusing multiple other players of things that could be scummy. Meransiel, do you still fos mozamis more than other people, and if not why are you still voting her? If so, why?

mozamis is also scummy, and they would make sense as a pair, but I'm going to stay away from pair speculation before any flips. I don't think mozamis is as scummy as Meransiel, whose contributions all lack logic and who hasn't justified his vote with anything except for gut.

---

Other miscellaneous questions:

Referring to Truant's two votes in his first post:

well, this is the first weird/suspicious thing I've seen in this game.

Well, I think it COULD be indicative of alignment, but in this case, it probably isn't.

How can voting for two people be indicative of alignment? What logic is there behind that? It could be "strange" - however, how does strange equate in any way to scummy?

VOTE: Truant

I can tell already we're going to have problems this game.

What do you mean by this, exactly?

@blenblen, you have completely ignored moz and meransiel despite the fact that there was serious attention being paid to them by pretty much every active player. Why? Tell me what you think of each of them: scummy, or towny?

New with lots of fluff.

Why did you sidestep the question? The question was whether or not they're scummy or towny, not whether they're new or fluffposting.

This thread needs more kunkstar/magnetic/ender too, although I guess I'm not one to be complaining about lurking right now.

[implosion]

implosion suggests (rightly) that strange does not equate to scummy.
However, he then attacks Meransial on the grounds of being illogical.
I dont think being illogical equates necessarily to scumminess either.

So, implosion, why is being strange not scummy- but being illogical is?
My conclusion: Implosions case on Meransial is in itself contradictory.

The goal of the town: lynch mafia.
The goal of the mafia: lynch town.
The difference: the mafia know who they want to lynch. Because of this, it serves their purpose to deform their logic in such a way that they can push on people that they know are their enemies, whereas members of the town have no reason to do so and will push on whoever they think is mafia.
Neither town nor mafia have any inherent reason to act strangely, therefore it isn't a tell.

It was a probable certainty, not an absolute one. Voting for someone who has a 25% chance of being scum, not increased or decreased by any factors, is

worse

than RVS.

The way you phrased it initially was definitely as if it was an absolute certainty. "can't be scum" rather than "are no scummier than others" implies certainty.

I saw people die based on this reason alone. Basically, the mafia are struggling to do 2 things: be in the middle of wagons, and offend as few people as possible. Due to those reasons, they do tend to change votes a lot.

I wasn't asking you why waffling is a scumtell, and I agree that it is... I was asking you what you meant by petroleumjelly's vote being "risky."

Everything is speculating. Why are you bringing up that I am scum if the only way to tell is by killing me, which is defeating the purpose if I'm town?

You probably think that question is stupid and doesn't deserve an answer. Well, so is yours.

Yes, everything is speculation - however, there are differences between grounded speculations and ungrounded speculations. You saying that this post was code is ungrounded, in that there's no way to tell either way and there's no reason to think it was. Me saying that you are scum is grounded in that you are acting scummy, and are continuing to act scummy. If I were to say that you bolding the word "worse" in your previous post was evidence of coded messages, you'd rightfully call me illogical and scummy.

Where did I say anything about gut?

Post 50.

[implosion]

Even though I just explained why it is?

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Hm.

Magnetic (parknourie alt) deactivated.

Mod, this is probably gonna require a replacement.

Point 1: if I am oh so willing to act anti-town and not vote someone that doesn't post, why did I forfeit said advantage by asking the mod to prod him?
Point 2: I know I did not express myself very well with that post about probability. I did clarify though in later posts, check them.
Point 3: no, just as something can look scummy, something else can look like code. How am I worse from the people that bash nacho for his obviously role-impaired posts?

1) Mafia need to look like town too so that they themselves don't get lynched. Doing something and then saying you can't be scum because you did it means nothing.
2) In which post did you explain

specifically

what you meant by the word "risky" or respond to my original comment on that post? I don't see it.
3) I can justify my scumtell on you with evidence. Can you justify your reading that post as code? All you said was that he repeated some word or something... I don't see how that means anything.
4) No options? Really? What about all of the other people who had justified their votes on different people? Why were you somehow incapable of finding someone who you found legitimately scummy, or even just agreeing with what someone else had said?

[implosion]

scotmany's 118 = wow. mozamis contradicts himself then justifies it by saying contradiction and bad logic isn't a scumtell.

I also don't see the case on MBL - there were 2 things he was accused of, lying and criticizing his predecessor... but the lying was clearly sarcastic and there's no scum motivation for criticizing his predecessor. I fail to see him as scummy, and Meransiel and mozamis are still both scummy as hell. The only thing he's done that I can see as scummy is what petroleumjelly outlined in 127, trying to put pj in a bad light, but I don't think that it's nearly as major as anything Meransiel and mozamis are saying.

Truant's sudden change to MBL is disconcerting. Truant, why do you "trust Amished's scumtell 100% in this situation?" Why do you trust it 100%, and what's so special about this situation?

OGML's sudden change is also odd. OGML, by what logic do you think that Meransiel is town? You said it's because of his interactions with mozamis... could you clarify this?

[implosion]

Meransiel, you were voting for scot... there was just an error in the votecount. Look up earlier on the page - you voted him in post 102.

Did you completely forget that you made that vote?

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@Meransiel, what do you think of mozamis's ignoring pj/mbl's questions? Do you think it's scummy at all? Why or why not?

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Mozamis, could you elaborate? What particular parts of which particular posts of MBL demonstrate his "flailing around" and lack of an "authentic air of scum hunting?" Gut feeling isn't enough.

Meransiel, so are you not attacking mozamis because mozamis is defending you? How does mozamis defending you, in any way, make mozamis look like town to you?

[implosion]

oh, implosion, i'm pretty sure you're town. i would start directing more of your questions at PJ and buddy lee if i were you. Maybe scotmany as well.

I haven't seen anything largely questionable from them. You say you think they're mafia - make a case! Explain your reads. scot and I asked you to a couple pages ago and you said you "can't be arsed" - well how about now?

@Tuncali, you make it sound like you're voting petroleumjelly for aggression - how is this scum motivated? Please explain.

Regarding pj's kill - I'm strongly against democratically deciding who it's used on, actually. Voicing opinions is perfectly fine, but petroleumjelly should have the final say in who is killed. It tells us more about his alignment if he's scum, and if he's town then we have a kill being directed by town. Democratic daykilling didn't really work in the only other game I've played with daykills (Cyclic experimentation) since they allowed the mafia to have too much control over the kill. I'm definitely for a kill on either mozamis or Meransiel, however.

I also fail to see what's bad about pj threatening lurkers. More activity is better.

[implosion]

I'm sorry for decreasing activity. I was busy most of today, and then marathon took over. I'll make a goodpost tomorrow morning/early afternoon.

[implosion]

Yay replacements.

petroleumjelly, if one post is the only thing of MBL's that you find scummy, why change your vote to him from obvscum-mozamis?

Going back to this point that I had brought up so very long ago: Amished's scumtell applies to MBL in this case because there simply isn't town motivation for you to read *only* your predecessor.

Lolwat? MBL was

clearly

joking and didn't eve read his predecessor because his predecessor hadn't posted...

check out some of Buddy's old games. He's a lot nicer when he plays town.

Examples?

Petro, you can both confirm your role and not bring us closer to losing by doing this: simply put, if someone reaches L-1, you daykill him.

Decent idea. Also, just a note: we still have 3 weeks. There's no need to rush anything. pj should DEFINITELY shoot today (probably within the next week) and it'll be almost like a double day with the long deadline.

Oh, and btw I now think we should try and avoid talking about Pj's vig claim. Just keep it on the back burner as it were. Its not gonna get us any closer to finding scum.

I see no reason to ignore it. I mean, we should still focus on scumhunting, but two kills today means twice the flips means twice the mod-confirmed info about peoples' alignments.

I actually like Meransiel's vote on mozamis. It makes sense with how Meransiel's been acting, even if I still find it odd that Meransiel has been suspicious of mozamis without actually really calling him out until now. I still think they're both scum, but mozamis is climbing higher than Meransiel.

Unvote, vote: mozamis

That's L-2. No one should hammer any lynch yet though, we still have 3 weeks lol. I'm okay with Meransiel's plan of L-1 claims/dayvigging if dayvigging is determined appropriate.

[implosion]

Also,

V/LA from tomorrow (Monday) until Friday.

I'm going to be in California. I'm not sure if I'm going to have access at all (I PROBABLY will, but no guarantee) and even if I have access it's unlikely I'll be able to post frequently.

[implosion]

Damn, 8 pages in the 4 days I've been away. OH JOY MORE REPLACEMENTS. This post is long, not necessarily required reading, just a catchup for 8 missed pages.

---

I'm sorry, but I still don't buy the case on MBL.

jeez cant people be more concise with their points? walls of texts are just a pain in the arse to read. as well as being good camaflage for scum (IWOA-is that the right buzzword?)

For the first time in this game, quite possibly, I agree with mozamis. Too many textwalls >_>.

Hence why, for the time being I am not going to say whe else I find suspicious, until we lynch Buddy. Unless he/someone else does a really good job of persuading me he is town.

bad.

@implosion, how is this:

Regarding pj's kill - I'm strongly against democratically deciding who it's used on, actually. Voicing opinions is perfectly fine, but petroleumjelly should have the final say in who is killed. It tells us more about his alignment if he's scum, and if he's town then we have a kill being directed by town. Democratic daykilling didn't really work in the only other game I've played with daykills (Cyclic experimentation) since they allowed the mafia to have too much control over the kill. I'm definitely for a kill on either mozamis or Meransiel, however.

any different from this:

I'm okay with Meransiel's plan of L-1 claims/dayvigging

if dayvigging is determined appropriate.

considering L-1 dayvigging is democratic and gives mafia significant control over the kill?

Bold in my second quoted post added for emphasis. People can voice opinions, but pj vigs only if pj determines that vigging is appropriate.

In Buddys above post, note how most of it is him listing other people's accusations of Meransial, and at the end of it saying "so yeah, Meransiel's done some scummy things".
Clearly, someone being attacked doesn't mean that someone is scummy.
So he still paints a vague picture of Mernasiel as scum, mainly it seems, based on other people attacking mernasiel as scum.
ps YES I AM DEFENDING MERANSIAL lol

I actually agreed with this until I read the post that MBL linked to, which explained his stance on Meransiel.

lol'd at 368-374.

Scot 381 = goodposting.

Amrun 385 is fairly good.

Amrun 397 is also goodposting.

@kunkstar and implosion:

You guys sound clever enough. Let's move forward to a post-mozamis world for a moment.

* If mozamis comes up town, who do you think is more likely to be scum?
* If mozamis comes up scum, who do you think is more likely to be scum?

Everyone else is welcome to respond as well.

Not sure. mozamis scum would

probably

make me think Meransiel more than right now based on the early game and their odd interactions with each other. mozamis town, really not sure. I honestly don't think a mozamis-town flip is all that informative, and I can't think of any immediate people that it would make me suspect. A mozamis-scum flip would be incredibly informative.

And Meransiel seems to think the opposite apparently. Care to explain why?

MBL, quit your whole "I'm Town, I'm Town" in your posts. Not helping. And I'm not impressed with your whole "who else do you think is scum?" schtick you have going. I (and others) don't have to solve the entire game on Day One just to lynch somebody.

This may be true, and MBL's post asking people about mozamis's flip does seem kind of odd to me, actually... at this point it's probable that mozamis is going to be killed (probably dayvigged) so I suppose it makes sense to ask for both scenarios while both are still applicable, but on the other hand I can see a definite possible scum motivation for that question - setting up mislynches, that is, being able to sheep on to whoever's opinion implies townies are mafia.

I like MBL's summary of nopoint, except for one thing -

Good distancing (from M&M) I must say. AND here we have our winning reciprocal distancing!

(guess, incorrect)

Why do you say that this is incorrect?

The rest of the case is actually fairly convincing, IMO... nopoint has basically been misrepping without evidence throughout the game.

nopoint 439 is terribad. He says that there were 3 people in between the posts... again, even after being corrected by MBL. Which CES catches in 442. The post itself is just bad too... he accuses MBL of lying and forging evidence, while MBL has explained how what nopoint is saying is inaccurate.

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu@moz flip.

pair speculation = bad. moz/Meransiel speculation was off, as it turns out - don't speculate about pairs until one member of the pair flips.

*caught up*

[implosion]

Oh, and VOTE: nopoint because I find MBL's case convincing. I also find it slightly odd that MBL isn't voting on it.

[implosion]

If mozamis comes up town, I don't think it points to anyone being more so scum due to the fact that she looks solidly scum individually, making a pretty easy bus for any partner.

If mozamis comes up town (which we now know he did) what does that have to do with bussing?

I'm pretty sure nopoint was talking about me distancing from M&M in that segment. And I'm not distancing from anyone in this game--thus, incorrect.

Ah.

I was uncertain about mozamis, and I'm uncertain about nopoint. "dumb, or scum?" is the indelicate way to put it. I typed up that case on nopoint, and a part of me said "he's trying, he's just locked on like an autistic pit bull". I read a few games of his play as scum and town, and this didn't look typical for him. I want to see more breadth from the guy--so much of his posting is anti-MBL, and I want to temper any OMGUS I feel rising in my throat.

I guess I see what you're saying after the mozamis flip.

Actually, I just reread nopoint a little and there is a question that you (MBL) ignored or didn't see:

How bout you reply to this
-->

Stop lying. You retract your statement apx 10 hours after you made your so called "gambit to see who's paying attention". If it was really a gambit, why would you reveal it right when only about 3 people have seen it. Sounds to me like you making justifications for your sorry self.

I'd actually like to see your response to this, MBL. The only response that I see is you saying that it was 5 and not 3; that essentially sidesteps the main argument.

I still think mer could be scum. He is definitely up there on my choices of who we should lynch. But his recent contributions have a towny vibe to them. I could explain more needed on that.

I agree, and I think I said something like this in the post where I voted mozamis. Meransiel's more recent contributions lack the scumminess that I saw in earlier posts, and have been overall more logical.

@implosion's question: I did explain why I thought so. Anything unclear?

So you did. However, in rereading those posts, you actually (in ISO 59) said you would suspect/vote MBL if mozamis flipped town. mozamis has flipped town, and yet your opinion on MBL appears unchanged. In fact, your next mention of MBL is your ISO 68, where you say "I don't think of MBL as scum." Did you change your opinion about a mozamis townflip?

A litter higher in your post, you said that if mozamis flips town, we won't have much information to work with. That was the eventuality I was concerned with, and thus wanted to get more people on the record about more people, just in case. Fortunately, it was a vig instead of a mislynch, so we have more time to get people on the record today, but do you really see "who else is scum besides #1 suspect?" being a question loaded with scum motivation? If sheeping was the purpose, couldn't I just sheep after they vote the mislynch instead of asking the question?

Makes sense. Something about the post just looked a little out of place, maybe... I mean, it's the kind of thing where the question could be town motivated or scum motivated. The scum motivation (to elaborate a little) for doing it like that instead of just sheeping the mislynch would be to "set up" the mislynch, so that you know who you're going to be able to push on to get mislynches.

Also, who do you see as having sheeped on to others' mozamis suspicions as we're discussing here?

The wagon at the last VC before the flip was (tuncali, nopointinactingup, implosion, Apokalyptica, Cogito Ergo Sum). Of the four that weren't me, tuncali didn't really sheep. I almost wanna say that nopoint sheeped, but he did offer original evidence (albeit not very logical) when he voted. Apok's wasn't really sheepy. CES didn't explain his vote at all. From the one marathon game of experience I have with him, that's normal for him, but it's still basically sheeping since he offered no explanation. So CES was the sheepiest. I don't really see anyone else that fits the bill of a sheep, and I wouldn't really expect to; mozamis was really scummy. If scum were pushing on him, it wouldn't have been difficult for them to create their own evidence.

Anyway, I'll look at pj's case/MBL's response in the morning, I've spent too much time on this post ._.

[implosion]

School started today, so my activity might be somewhat low... still, jeez. This activity level is saddening. Fewer than 20 posts in the 2-3 days I've been gone. Meransiel and CES are within prodding range. IIRC, nopoint and tuncali were already prodded. At least there isn't too much to catch up on, I guess.

On pj's MBL case and MBL's defense - MBL's defense looks real to me. I still don't buy the case on him.

This game is still churning in my head, but I really don't have much else to add. The game has kind of stalled out since the mozamis kill...

[implosion]

nopoint and tuncali, judging from the activity overview. Meransiel is in prodding range too.

@kunkstar: I don't really get what you're saying about Amrun. You find her apologizing and MBL vote scummy, and the rest of her posts null?

[implosion]

Deadline is in 9 days. The new replacements need to weigh in, especially iam.

[implosion]

Too tired to read the summaries and actually gain anything useful from them, will do so in the morning. I might also do a general reread or ISOs if I have the time/energy.

[implosion]

The inactivity in this game is mind-boggling. 5 prods at once. I feel sorry for Shanba. I really can't say I've been doing well with activity lately, but still.

Read iam's catchup post. Honestly, nothing in it really stood out to me... I disagree with some of his reads (tuncali's slot, for example) but nothing really sticks out in the post as looking particularly townish (or really scummy either) from iamausername. Amrun's defense makes sense, and iam's interpretation of 301 actually does look like mudslinging. Still, the post as a whole doesn't really give me a strong feel for iam's alignment. I still think nopoint/the slot was/is scum, though. Apok's defense is lacking - he responded to one part of the case he quoted, and ignored the rest.

kunkstar's reads are also okay, but again, there are some that I don't see. nopoint town, obviously, I don't agree with. Both him and iam also had Meransiel as scum, which I'm thinking less as time goes on.

Of course, that slot is getting replaced :\.

[implosion]

Okay. I'm not going to give a full list of reads at this point because night is really soon and I don't want the scum having any extra information.

iam definitely needs to claim.

Meransiel, your logic has a simple flaw in it:

b3. I don't even have to say why a PR revealing himself under pressure is bad.

Several people have already explained this a little, but I'd like to explain it further and clarify: consider a cop who is under pressure. If they claim, they might be able to get an investigation if we move the lynch to someone else. They

might

also not be believed and be hammered. If they don't claim, they die uselessly with

100% certainty

. In fact, if their claim is believed, they can even be protected if there's a doctor. Plus, they could even be nightkilled instead of lynched, which is definitely an improvement (we don't waste a lynch, and the scum are forced to kill an otherwise-scummy player).

Now, sure, scum could claim a power role too - but town shouldn't instruct scum on what to do. If a town power role is about to be hammered, it is impossible for them to lose anything by claiming.

@MBL: the slot definitely has residual scumminess from OGML's exclamation of excitement followed by a lackluster performance. While it is somewhat true that she's been going with the flow (as iam said) she's justified her actions and votes and reads (hasn't been sheeping). So I'd say null-leaning-scum. Apok is overall null, but OGML gives me some suspicion of the slot.

[implosion]

Deadline is

tomorrow

. iamausername needs to claim.

@MBL:

2) isn't necessarily true. A fair number of people were going after you, and him joining that crowd (I don't think he was the first) wouldn't be all that risky. The hardcore tunneling was a bit strange, but it in itself frankly looks like something he would have done as either alignment (meta) because it looks like it's just a play style thing. However, his refusal to answer questions; his refusal to rectify contradictions; and most of all probably, his failure to provide adequate reasoning or evidence in his tunneling on MBL/etc; these are what make me suspect the slot.

The others, frankly, I don't see as that meaningful even if true. 1) doesn't necessarily mean anything. Fast wagons can form on either alignment. 3) means something, but not really much - scum can fake scumhunting, and even if the list does read as town, nopoint's actions were still too scummy IMO. 4), again, means nothing about iam's alignment - especially considering that you say it could be lazy town. 5) is speculating about one living player's alignment based on another living player's (or multiple living players') alignment(s). 6) doesn't necessarily mean much - we've been telling iam, at L-1, to claim for a while, and deadline is almost here. Besides, saying they're overeager to hammer would be a statement about their alignments, not about iam's. 7) doesn't give any indication of iam's alignment.

If iam flips scum, we definitely need to pay close attention to MBL and Meransiel. If he is scum, both of them are likely scum trying to deflect the lynch. Maybe not both, but probably at least one.

Also, @Meransiel: what the hell... unconfirmed alignment ≠ one scum. CES's 671 pretty much explained it.

iamausername

needs to claim

. Like, now. If he does not claim by the end of the day, someone needs to hammer him.

@Mod: is deadline tomorrow at the same time that you posted "DAY 1 IS GO?"

[implosion]

Cool.

VOTE: kunkstar

[implosion]

CES, why bluff? What were you expecting Apok to say if she's scum, and how could anything actually really implicate her if you're bluffing? Doesn't bluffing just needlessly out roles if Apok is town with little or no benefit if Apok is scum?

[implosion]

I think looking at interactions with kunk are probably the way to go today, unless you feel he was a master of subtlety.

Since we have flipped scum, some looking at interactions is obviously good, but I don't think we should rely solely on them. Especially considering that, as you brought up, Frogs 1 had a traitor in it.

@CES, could you elaborate on what of MBL seems off? I kind of understand what you're saying, but he still reads town overall to me.

Of the people left:

I need to take closer looks at Bella, scotmany and Amrun. Tuncali looked like town to me, but it might have just been a playstyle thing, and scotmany and Amrun have both been kind of null to me. Meransiel is

probably

town. CES is almost definitely town.

@Apok: do your votes have to be on separate people?

[implosion]

Prod dodge. I'll hopefully be posting content later today, but these upcoming weeks are likely to be somewhat bad for activity because I have AP tests and finals.

[implosion]

Thursday is the AP Lit test. After that, stuff should get at least a bit less hectic. I'll post content then. Sorry.

[implosion]

Reading.

[implosion]

I have the SAT tomorrow, three finals over the course of monday and tuesday, and i won't be here wednesday.
I'm working on ISOs, but not done yet by a long shot. I'll finish them tomorrow after the SAT.

[implosion]

I fell asleep at like 7 or 8 last night >_> just got around to finishing them.

Amrun

Posts 10-11 (all these are in ISO) draw suspicion of a mozamis-Meransiel team (which, obviously, we know not to be the case). This is a mild scumtell considering how many people were making the same accusation, but nonetheless pair speculation on day one makes more sense for the mafia than for the town as it gives them a larger pool from which to lynch and can set up mislynches if one of the people being speculated about is mafia.
Post 13 I don't like. Amrun states the Amished tell and follows it up with "reaaaaaaaaaaly not liking MBL." The Amished tell alone seems like a pitiful justification for a strong fos like this, in fact I don't see the merit in the tell at all,

especially

considering what MBL actually said in his first post.
17ish-20ish pushing on Meransiel, I like. Meransiel was scummy at this point in the game.
33 is kind of bad. Replacing out when under heat doesn't mean mafia, and if it is "iffy" then there's really little reason to find it "far more scummy" as Amrun stated in 35.
37 Amrun basically admits that replacing is a nulltell. Minor townpoints for that, i guess.
46 is a reads post. I don't see anything especially scummy in it. It seems similar to what I was thinking on a lot of fronts. Some townpoints for that.
50ish conversation with mozamis looks like town encouraging mozamis to contribute if town.
57 and 60 are scummy because of the manner in which Amrun pushes MBL/CES as scumbuddies. I like the way it was phrased in 57, something like "if one of them flips scum I will attack the other one" to an extent - but the way it was phrased in 60, "Occam's Razor tells me they're both scum" both contradicts the first way it was phrased and is scummy on its own - I already explained why attacking scumbuddies before they've flipped is scummy. On the other hand the last paragraph of 60 looks somewhat town. Still, overall scumpoints for those two posts.
73 looks town in changing the Meransiel read, partially because I think this is the time that I was thinking similar things and partially because the logic used looks like town.
I pretty much skimmed the rest (long ISO), but I really didn't see anything that made me feel strongly. And even after this I don't really have that strong of a read on Amrun. The pushing on pairs is scummy, but there are also points where Amrun looks like town, and my gut also says that Amrun is town based on some of the logic that she's used.

scotmany

5 is pair speculation, but only saying that he could see the pair, not pushing it. So that's null.
7 is similar, but he's pushing on them individually. Also null.
8 looks town. The first MBL push was bad.
The rest of his posts until 24 look generally like town. He's pushing where pressure should be applied.
24 and 26 are an interaction with kunk. I feel like it could be distancing, but am fairly null on whether it's distancing or a real question.
33 is slightly odd, but he explained it in 35.
His claiming is really odd. If CES had tracked him to CES, then CES would have either asked him to claim or wouldn't be pushing on him (as CES said). Not sure what to make of it at the moment.
Overall, scot reads town. I just don't really see anything scummy that he's done.

Bella

iirc, tuncali read noobtown to me, but in a way that could have just been meta.
2, I dislike. I don't like Bella commenting on iam's criticism of his predecessor at this stage in the game. A lot of it is also just echoing what others have said.
Everything else she's said reads null to me. I think she's a bit scummy. There's a lot of going along with the crowd, and i'm not really sure about her reasoning on Meransiel. She leans scum.

I may also do a reread of kunk at some point, but not right now.

By the way, I have a qualm about Apok's claim, but it can be easily satisfied if she's real. Apok, can you vote for the same person twice to show that you can? Anyone is fine. Scot appears to have had the same thought as me - I'm just paranoid about it because Shanba is notable for trying to defy meta. If Apok is a scum doublevoter, I'd *expect* her to only be able to vote separate people, and if she can vote the same person twice then that means two things. First, she's more dangerous if she is scum. Second, she's less likely to be scum. She's also (iirc) claimed to be able to vote the same person twice, so I want to see it in case she's scum who wants to slide by and avoid what I'm thinking.

Vote: Bella

Meransiel is probably town as before. MBL still reads town.

[implosion]

@implosion, did you reread Meransiel's play or are you standing on your previous judgment?

As I said, Meransiel is probably town as before. I didn't reread Meransiel. I only reread the people that I didn't really have a good read on at all. I feel like I have a decent townread on Meransiel.

[implosion]

Unvote, Vote: Apokalyptica

[implosion]

Wait.

Unvote

Mod, I voted Bella. Is t a mistake that it isn't in the count?

[implosion]

I should, at last, have a normal schedule. Yay.

* Meransiel was illogical
* mozamis, for being tied to Meransiel
* nopoint, for MBL's case
* Bella, for this viewtopic.php?p=2957125#p2957125 post, says everything else she's said is null

Second reason is completely wrong. I thought they were both scummy, but at the point when I changed my vote, I thought mozamis was scummier than Meransiel. If the only reason I thought someone was scum was because I thought someone else was scum, I wouldn't change my vote.

Really weak performance by implosion. And his play and Amrun's play have been full of excuses, posturing about why they aren't posting. I especially like this:

Okay. I'm not going to give a full list of reads at this point because night is really soon and I don't want the scum having any extra information.

You especially like it? Explain, please. And my activity has only been really bad recently because of finals - I should be active for at least the next 3 weeks. You're also drastically understating most of my reasons for voting - my votes aren't as "weak" as you are making them out to be when they are viewed in the context of my actual posts.

my gut also says that Amrun is town based on some of the logic that she's used.

Please explain.

Part of it is just the general way in which she's been arguing things, which is in most of her posts... a specific example would be ISO 25. Or ISO 51. The process of thought looks like it comes from town. It could be a meta thing similar to my gut townread on Tuncali, but I don't think so. I guess the thought process looks genuine.

@implo, when and why specifically did you shift opinion on Meransiel? You wanted him lynched alongside mozamis, now you're so confident he's town that you don't need to reread him.

I distinctly remember Meransiel's posts becoming less scummy at some point. Apparently around my ISO 16. Like post 409. Around there, his posts lose the terrible logic that they had before and start looking townish (like 409).

[implosion]

MBL, if you're only talking about my mozamis vote, then first of all - you're ignoring some of what I've posted. Second of all, it was common talk how and why mozamis was scummy; I looked at mozamis, saw nothing making sense, and voted. Everyone understood that mozamis was making no sense. I guess you could say that the reason for the mozamis vote was so obvious (and that there were very few if any disagreeing that mozamis was scummy) that there was little need for me to explain it in depth.

The shift in Meransiel was more of a feeling in his posts, that they were becoming less illogical. I guess I didn't really elaborate on it because he was just looking more like town, it was mostly a gut based thing at the time. I only recently looked back and found the specific reasons why he was looking better. It was also that his posts weren't as illogical.

Also, I explained a while ago why bad logic is beneficial to the scum (see my ISO 3).

[implosion]

Hm. I just checked, and the deadline is this Wednesday. Definitely want to see Amrun's catch up and response to 903.

Bella hasn't posted in over 8 days and Apok requested replacement, so hopefully we can get an extension.

[implosion]

Okay. Thinking it over, this is what I have figured out. Oman is probably town because he (apok) can doublevote on the same person. I'm going to assume he's town for now, along with CES. scotmany could in theory be scum, but he reads as town and (if scum) is definitely going to wait for later, and is probably going to become more obvious later if he is mafia. So that leaves (at least, from my point of view)

-MBL
-Amrun
-Bella
-Meransiel

as the most likely scum. If the scumteam is Bella+Meransiel, then if one of them is ever lynched and doesn't flip neighbor, we'd know the other is scum - so it's an unfeasible gambit for scum to do. That means that either MBL or Amrun (or both, but probably not) is most likely scum. Probably with either Bella or Meransiel, unless they're hardcore bussing right now, which I doubt they would do in this situation if they're scum together.

Between Meransiel and Bella, I feel it's probably Bella. Meransiel reads town to me. Bella does not. I have seen nothing from Bella that makes me think that she is town, whereas Meransiel has said things that I see as most likely coming from town.

As for MBL and Amrun:

Amrun, please respond to the following point of MBL's (I don't see a response):

Meanwhile, you placed the L-1 on kunkstar even though CES, your #1 suspect from the previous day, was the one accusing kunkstar.

Bzzt. You're scum.

MBL, please respond to the following post of Amrun's (924, also don't see a response):

I actually woke from a dead sleep because I forgot to post something important about MBL.

I really dislike the way he's using my meta. It's one thing to say "so and so tends to do this more as scum than as town" but to say, "Amrun has a good scum record, so she should be scrutinized" iis doing the opposite of what he was trying to do with himself, painting himself as town. Instead, he's planting the idea that I'm scum for no valid reason. A case of sorts followed, but it felt like it was contrived after he realized he could use my good record as scum as a tool to mislynch me. Not too long ago, he had cleared me as town, iirc.

I wonder if I was dreaming about this game.

[implosion]

Hm. so it is.

I also plan to ISO kunk tomorrow to look for associative tells, by the way. In terms of MBL and Amrun's actual cases on each other, I'm still trying to figure them out (in terms of how towny/scummy the actual cases are more so than how incriminating they are to the person they're on, actually).

[implosion]

Kunkstar ISO

Post 0: nothing
Post 1: minor defense of Amrun, sheeping scot's post attacking moz and meran (separately). Minor scumpoints to amrun, minor townpoints to meransiel.
Post 2: minor defense of MBL, minor scumpoints to MBL. Both this and post 1 were attacking flawed arguments, so neither is particularly major.
Post 3: attacking truant, some townpoints to CES.
Post 4: calls Truant and OGML good flips. Town points to their replacements (CES and Oman)
Post 5: questioning Amrun. Neutral - could have been distancing.
Post 6: calls mozamis's accusation on MBL "baseless." Some scumpoints for MBL. mozamis's logic was bad, but this could be a chainsaw.
Post 7: kunk explains some of MBL's actions that people are construing as scummy. Definite scumpoints to MBL - even if he's already explained himself, kunk trying to clarify it is basically a soft defense of MBL.
Post 8: response to a comment from Meransiel, nothing important because it's such a minor post on a minor comment.
Post 9: extends the conversation with Meransiel, it's still null. Says "I don't find anything dodgy with BuddyLee" - could be neutral, could be scumpoints for MBL, not sure.
Post 10: an attack on an Amrun post 3 posts earlier. Town points to Amrun - any attack could be distancing, but I don't think this one is. It's kind of a bad attack, attacking Amrun for saying thanks. I kind of feel like it's a bad push on a townie.
Post 11: a reply to an MBL question. neutral.
Post 12: votes Amrun. No one else was voting Amrun. Could be a distancing vote. Has a decent amount of reasoning in the post.
Post 13: rescinds a point of the Amrun vote after Amrun points something out. Not as important as the surrounding posts.
Post 14: attacks Meransiel. Could be distancing. It's also an attempt to debunk a post that calls Amrun town, an indirect attack on Amrun; I'd give Amrun townpoints for this, since it probably isn't distancing with Amrun but it still implies an attack.
Post 15: replies to a question of mine. Would be null towards me if I were evaluating the ISO towards me, but I'm not.
Post 16: continuation of the attack on Amrun. It's either an extended distancing attempt, or a push towards a mislynch for later. Can't tell which from this post.
Post 17: continuation. References post 10's attack. This makes me thing Amrun is town - at this point, this has been an attack encompassing much of kunk's ISO, and referencing bad reasoning. The new reasoning within post 18 isn't as bad, but I feel like the way kunk continues to push on Amrun makes her town.
Post 18: responds to my question about his Amrun read. Doesn't specifically look like distancing or like a mislynch push to me - saying that Amrun is scum but not obvscum could go either way because it could be trying to look good if Amrun flips town or it could be an attempt to avoid having to push too hard on Amrun. So this post is pretty much neutral.
Post 19: talks about a scumread that he would have had on OGML if moz had flipped scum. Largely neutral.
Post 20: kunk's largest post. First 2 paragraphs are talking largely about nopoint (there was a response to a scot post which is probably neutral) so they aren't relevant to living people. Talk about CES doesn't mean anything that I can figure out; it isn't really an attack or a defense, just a comment. He says that I piggyback MBL and makes a mental note to review the case; that's probably neutral or very slight scumpoints to MBL if he's just delaying it, but probably not. Null on scotmany. Says the same thing about Meransiel; I'd say that's a slight amount of townpoints. Again, possible distancing, but it seems like the kind of place where it's throwing suspicion around and is throwing it on town. In list of reads, Amrun is at the bottom of the scum list (with town on top and scum on bottom). This is townpoints for Amrun. This attack has been so prolonged that I feel it's unlikely to be a bus, especially with putting Amrun at the bottom of his scumlist.
Post 21: talks about thinking nopoint is town because of how he's pushing MBL, explicitly mentions WIFOM. No idea what to think of this as it is, in fact, likely to be WIFOM.
Post 22: votes Apok as a second choice to nopoint. Very much definite townpoints to Oman - there was a risk of a possible apok lynch here.
23-25: obvnull.

This makes me feel like MBL is the scum between him and Amrun, based on the soft defense of MBL early on and a continual attack on Amrun for most of the time he was in the game. It doesn't really tell me anything about Bella and Meransiel. I'm gonna try to assimilate all of this tomorrow and figure out teh scumz, hopefully earlier than 11:30.

[implosion]

Meransiel, you flipping town would make me suspect bella more. It wouldn't make me suspect MBL more.

MBL, your description of my ISO read is overly simplistic. I looked at each instance of an interaction and decided contextually if it indicated town or scum. npiau is different from you; npiau was a likelier lynch. You're a good player and therefore less likely to be lynched on day one. moreover, predilection for protecting one townie does not mean that kunkstar will have defended every townie; in fact, it would more likely suggest the opposite since scum would probably be more likely to attack some townies while defending others (and possibly the same with their scumbuddies).

Anyway. I cannot make heads or tails of the cases. Neither of them has anything in them that gives me a strong idea of who is mafia. My read of kunkstar makes me think MBL is scum. The defense on him just really makes more sense if he's mafia because of the way it was done. Plus, since it's probably one of him/amrun and it also makes me think Amrun is town, it's more likely to be MBL scum.

VOTE: MBL

I think deadline is tomorrow too.

UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT

meransiel - amrun, scotmany.
mbl - ces, implosion.
Amrun - mbl.
Bella - meransiel.
not voting - bella, oman*2

[implosion]

Yellow-bellied toad, Townie.

Amrun is mafia with either Bella or Meransiel, probably bella. Oman is town because of his claim. There's an off-chance that CES bussed kunkstar, but that would be an insane play for scum to make because most people thought that kunkstar was town on day one. MBL flipping town makes Amrun scum since the neighbors are almost definitely not both scum. I wouldn't even put it past Shanba to make two scum from the same team neighbors after looking at the setup of frogs 1, but they way that Meransiel claimed would make no sense whatsoever if he was scum with Bella. Amrun needs to die today. I won't vote yet because it's mylo, but I'm essentially sure she's scum at this point because of MBL's flip. Bella makes more sense as the scumbuddy mostly because Bella is just scummier than Meransiel, and partially because Amrun's first posts today have completely ignored Bella. I've given some explanation on my townread on Meransiel, and can elaborate more if necessary. Bella gives no such read.

CES should explicitly out all of his results since everyone has claimed.

[implosion]

Wow. Just wow.

If Implosion is scum I fail at this game epically.

Explain this, please. Who do you think is scum other than Bella? Amrun, who do you think is scum other than Meransiel? Bella, who do you think is scum?

[implosion]

Crap, the more this goes on the more suspicious I am of Implosion...

Can you explain this instead of just randomly stating it and then attacking me?

Maybe I'm missing something... but why are we accepting as gospel the fact that there are two scum remaining?

If there's only one left, it doesn't really affect gameplay, it just means that we have a mislynch.

What CES said is also true, if there is a 2-person scumteam, Oman is probably in it. If we mislynch today and the game doesn't end, he's probably scum. If that happens, then we will cross that bridge then. There are no downsides to assuming 2 scum; it's vastly more likely, and simplifies things.

So where does that leave us? Who do you want to lynch, CES? Everyone, same question.

You.

I don't understand why I'm suddenly being attacked by several people. Amrun explained it some, but Meransiel hasn't at all. CES, if you think it's me and Amrun, then can we lynch Amrun?

Bella also needs to give her top lynch candidates. Oman did until he ninja'd me.

[implosion]

The replacements were a bother. I dunno what it is - all the games I mod seem to have endless streams of site flakers.

QFT. Day one must have seriously sucked as a mod... but replacements were found, so good job.

I had fun this game. Amrun is probably right that we should have distanced more before the day when one of us was probably going to be lynched. I also think if we hadn't sent kunk to do the n1 kill, things would have turned out completely differently. Almost everyone thought he was town until CES tracked him.

Also, I was almost sure that this was godfather without a cop until scot flipped JOAT, and then it all made sense...

Oh, and CES: great bah post.

[implosion]

Also, @Scum - Why did you kill me?

kunk told us to, pretty much.

[implosion]

http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/qKU2GXEQmNuT
I made it. There's some semi-interesting stuff. Nothing really major.