Mini1147-Royal Mafia at the Round Table (Game Over!)

[Oso]

Let's see. TwistedSpoon, Me=Wierd and Javert. Played with you folks before so I'm glad to be playing with you again.

To the rest of you. Hi, nice to meet you.

[Oso]

To RVS or not to RVS, that is the question....

Screw it, no RVS.

Calling it now. Erratus/Ender are scum

Erratus Post-24:Looks like it could be RVS but isn't. I'd say a serious poke at another player because it asks a rather damning question:

Why do you want us to let our guard down, Ender?

. Followed by a vote on Ender.

Ender Post-34: Counter votes Erratus, calls him an idiot.

Early distancing attempt.

VOTE: Erratus Apathos

/inb4:But Juls and farside are doing something similar, why not vote one of them? They aren't. Missing the vote/countervote component. Their back and forth is not attempt at distancing.

[Oso]

If I hadn't mentioned it, someone would have brought it up. I'd bet money on it.

[Oso]

Personal choice.

[Oso]

EBWOP: That seems a bit too brief after I look at it.

If I'm certain I am going to asked a question about a post, I do try and preempt the question by answering in the post that is likely to generate the objection.

[Oso]

..

From a town perspective, letting others ask the questions even IF they're obvious brings about more discussion which is good for scum hunting. Answering the questions you anticipate in advance shuts off the conversation opportunity

for a selfish, scummy reason - trying to make sure you cover your bases so no one finds you suspicious.

The bold. I understand what you are saying and in this case you are most probably right now that I think on it. As for the remainder there, not so much. I let my personal preference interfere in what was probably the best play in this situation.

[Oso]

I'm unavailable for most of the rest of the day but I would like to point folks at Erratus' vote post here:

..
Ender tells us to "have no fear". Having no fear in this game is tantamount to letting your guard down. Why do you want us to let our guard down, Ender?
VOTE: ender241

and think on it. Or comment. Or don't. But any input would be welcome. What got me the most about it was it doesn't seem to be an RVS vote but it is the first 'real' post of the game so by definition, it can't be anything other than a joke/RVS vote. But it's not a joke or RVS vote. Look at the way it's worded.

The post itself is a contradiction.

[Oso]

..
Was Oso scum or town in the game where he pre-empted questions?

Mini 1073:Autumn Mafia - I was Scum in the game Me=Weird is referencing.

Got a minute or two so, @Me=Wierd

..I can see EA scum, and I don't see anyone better right now, so...

Why?

I mean, I know why I see him as a scum candidate, why do you?

[Oso]

@NE and Maxous.

Of course it is weak and speculative. Less than 3 full pages and 24 hours into the game.

NE may be right and Erratus deserves a gold star for basically ending the RVS the first post. At this moment, I don't agree but no way to prove it or even know if it is true. Even speculation as to why he did it relies on what you personally think of the post and what you think of EA's motivation behind it.

But, you have to start somewhere.

[Oso]

Um, I don't have a town read on TS.

The only two people I have mentioned in regards to possible alignment are Erratus and Ender.

As to you and Juls, since you weren't really arguing even with your vote on her, I'm going to say that it is null banter.

[Oso]

..
@Oso: What is your read of TS so far?

Null for the moment. Mostly based on meta. The game I played with him was just before this one (Mini 1130 - A Fishbowl Invasion by Ninja Monkeys!) and he seems on track for the way he played there. He was town.

Newish, unsure, a bit directionless. Pretty much what I saw from him before. Your vote on him should wake him up though. Last game, votes and suspicions had a tendency to do that to him.

[Oso]

Busy day.

@Ender

...
It isn't, he was just trying to get us out of the "RVS stage" as soon as possible so we can do some proper scum-hunting.

This is Ender's response to Prosuarus's question:

In the RVS, this

[Erattus's vote of Ender]

is scummy how? I'm pretty new, please explain this.

Question. If you thought it was to get out of the RVS and get some real discussion going, why the vote? From your response to Prosaurus, I get the impression you thought what Erattus was doing was good.

[Oso]

If somebody would like to volunteer themselves for instant death, please let me know, and I will be happy to oblige! Also, if anybody fails to post content for a period of 4 days without giving V/LA notice, they are eligible to be Vigged.

Now, maybe people will stop asking me pointless (and bad) questions. I am not in the mood to answer them.

Inspector Javert

shall be the one asking the questions from here on out.

Yo, volunteer right here.

@MOD, replacement please.

Now way in hell I'm playing the rest of this game with dick-swinging son of a bitch.

[Oso]

You don't have to answer them. This was part of the post I was in the process of making when I previewed and saw that.

-----

You can't even answer a simple question? @anyone who's played with him before, does he usually do this?

Not the pictures, I didn't see anything like those in the game I played with him, but 'Yes' to the attitude. He's an alt (not going to say of who) and the names he uses (I think) have meaning. Google "Javert" and you may get an idea of what I'm saying and why his not answering doesn't alarm me alignment wise.
-----

The threat of using your Day-Vig for anything other than defensible pro-town reasons, is what set me off. Certainly not your refusal to answer questions. I'm believing the claim for the moment because I see no reason, right now, why scum would claim that.

[Oso]

[non game]
I will send the PM retracting the request.

Since I can't send PM to folks individually during a game a blanket apology will have to do for now. Sorry folks. No excuse, the reaction was over the top and expressed it publicly as well.
[/non game]

I'll reconstruct the post I was making and post it in a bit.

[Oso]

@farside, he was town and he had the same attitude, to a lesser degree, at the beginning of that game as well. I'll link the game if you want. It was pretty impressive that he stayed un-lynched. Most everything in the game's PR interactions pointed at him being guilty as hell.

@Ender, what do you think of Javert's claim?

[Oso]

Oso - Other than Errastus, whom do you see as scummy?

That would be Ender. Part of the reason is pretty much a carbon copy of what Javert said when he answered. So I'll just quote that because it says what I was going to say and uses many less words.

1.) I voted ender241 for Post 91. First, it is almost verbatim to Erratus Apathos' post, Post 90. But it has a subtle difference: while Erratus Apathos correctly pointed out that Prosaurus was more using his "newb card" to defend why he was not getting reads on players, ender241 instead claimed the "newb card" was being played in order to "get out of situations where he is going to be voted." I definitely do not get that impression from Prosaurus' post, and I think it is an overblown attack on the "newb card."

Which is exactly what I got out of Ender's as opposed to Erratus's vote. Erratus is saying Prosaurus is using the newb card to justify confusion "You need to start playing the game", Ender is accusing him of actively using the newb card to defelct suspicion.

In additon, since Javert's claim,

..
Just vote him already godamnit!

He's trying it on

, it's like saying "I'm the bomb, the last person to vote me so i am lynched will die." Which is basically warning us off voting for him so he gets away with doing what he wants and noone can stop him,

he can't kill all of us

.

First bold.

"He is trying it on..."

, implies he thinks it not true. Second bold

"...he can't kill all of us."

Not 100% confirmation that he knows Javert is actually a Day-Vig but 100% confirmation in my mind he knows Javert is town.

Reference that with Ender's

• Post-113:Start answering questions, i doubt your a DayVig.
  
• Post-114:Basically your using "Day-vig" as your excuse to say what you want.

And you see what I am getting at. The

"...he can't kill all of us."

is pretty much smoking gun confirmation that Ender

KNOWS

Javert is town and most probably telling the exact truth about his role.

So you can the question in my last post Ender for the rest of the thread if you want. I'm no longer concerned with the answer though.

UNVOTE: Erratus Apathos

VOTE: ender241

[Oso]

You should. If he is true claiming, and I think he is, then pushing him into killing someone who insists on voting him is likley to end up with a dayvigged townie, probably followed by the NK of the vig and probably the mis-lynch of a townie somewhere in there depending on how hot and heated it gets. Not good for town at all.

This is going to sound very weird considering the way I went off on him but re-read his claim post and throw out the blood boiling stuff. Javert gave us a safety valve to use as town when he posted this:

..
2.) By the way, I'm a DayVig. No, I'm not joking, and yes, I am going to use my ability at some point today. My kill will be posted in-thread.
..

He doesn't, or tries to waffle out of it, we lynch him. We will have proof one way or another by the end of the game day.

@Javert, does your kill have to come before the lynch vote? Can you kill in twilight? I'm guessing that it doesn't end the day but I'll go ahead and add that. Does it end the day?

[Oso]

Back from a day with some friends. Skim read and didn't see anything right off the bat that changed since my last. Will do a better read and post something.

One thing that did jump out at me is that I will second is Juls caution not to do anything that will end the day prematurely, and by that I mean before Javert can take a shot. Even putting Ender at L-1 could end the day if he self votes.

[Oso]

@Rhinox

May main point is here: Basically boils down to what I see as slip. Several references, in my opinion, to him not believing Javert's claim but then acknowledging that he "..cant kill all off us."

My secondary reason: Javert posted here. Point #1 is close enough to what I was thinking of Ender's vote of Prosaurus that I didn't even try to put it into my own words really. Just quoted it and added agreement to it in my vote post.

EA has a post here worth looking at. Sheds a better light on Ender's actions.

At this point, I don't agree with EA's assessment though.

One other point of note. Ender may have made a soft claim here: Right before his NE vote

"I'll find out what he is tonight"

. For my part, I'm still processing that one. Could be awkward wording or an incomplete thought or a soft-claim. I haven't decided which one for myself yet.

It does look as if Ender is trying to draw Javert's kill right now though. I don't like that but until I think on it some, I have no opinion on it, not even a knee-jerk opinion of it.

[Oso]

.. I had to "swallow my pride" (so to speak) to keep Oso in the game earlier; and now you need to do the same.
..

My apologies for that . I can go into more detail after the game if you want but you were basically on the receiving end of something that had very little to do with the game. Bad week.

That said, since we do have a way for scum to end the day before you can take a shot (self-voting at L-1), I don't see any way it can be avoided: You, and the rest of the thread (me included), have almost no choice but to hang the vigkill over the head of a player. At least until Javert's status has been confirmed.

[Oso]

I don't fully understand what you mean by "hang the vigkill over the head of a player"

I'm not saying we should put someone at L-1 now but it won't exactly be a disaster if Javert does'nt get an opportunity to shoot today. If a scum self-hammers..we have gotten rid of a mafia member. Happy days.
If used correctly it will be useful but we don't absolutly need it.

It's not inherently needed for me personally. I can't see any reason at all why scum would claim day-vig. It didn't make any sense to me when he made the claim that he might be scum doing it and when I thought on it, it still doesn't.

Javert has said that he does want to take a shot today. Granted, if we L-1 scum and they self-vote to prevent the shot, that's still good. 1 scum down.

Since I believe the claim, I can't see how it hurts us at all to not L-1 a player that is on his way to claim as it allows us to do both. Pressure before lynch/prevent the day from ending unexpectedly.

I'd have a problem doing that with someone under no or little pressure but in Ender's case, he's at L-2. You (I think it was you Maxous) indicated you were willing to vote but didn't want to L-1 him just yet.

If someone else indicated a willingness to vote Ender that could be read as the L-1 vote (you) and Hammer (other player). In that case, "hanging the vig kill over a player's head" has the same effect as an L-1 vote/Hammer imminent combo.

[Oso]

..
Because when he did it, he pretty much said he'd shoot whoever it was that put him at L-1 (Or hammered him if he can shoot in twilight.) So people wouldn't vote to avoid being Day Killed....

I think you aren't thinking deeply enough.

Javert was under NO pressure really at the time of his claim. 2 votes: farside and Twistedspoon (at least TS tried, he forgot to unvote first). There is no reason for him to claim simply to save his own skin at that point. It doesn't need saving.

He committed himself in his vote post to taking a shot today.

4 strong reasons there why his claim is not false:

• No reason, that I can think of, for scum to claim just out of the blue like that, especially not a day role where we can see the result in-thread.
  
• He has committed himself in such a way that he can't really back out of it. So he's not bluffing about being able to kill. He can day kill.
  
• He has shut off his options. Rarely (I mean as in never) have I personally seen scum shut off their options as completely as that this early in the game.
• He never does mention vigging anyone who votes him.

From where I stand right now, Javert is exactly what he claims to be.

If he was doing what you think he might be doing (and this is personal opinion here, others may have different views) I would have expected to see it when he was under much more pressure and he would have probably not use a day-vig claim it provable before death. Ender mentioned one: A Bomb. Another would be a Vengeful townie. Both of those are unprovable until lynch.

[Oso]

..
i can see a theme in this game, that everything is one-shot :/

Where did you get that idea from? I checked back back and unless I missed something Javert specifically declined to say if his role was normal or one shot.

Alright my role is.... One-shot cop.

I would say I don't know what to think of that except I do. I think it smells. If scum, he only has to sell one innocent that can easily be killed later. He doesn't get caught in the confirming more townies than scum can kill loop.

Have a considerable amount of work to do today but I'm not going to remove my vote yet. Seriously considering suspending my personal policy of leaving claimed PRs alone Day 1 in this case.

Pending a re-read to make sure I haven't gotten the wrong impression, my thoughts right now are that Ender has been playing in a way that would tend to point that he has placed a higher priority on his own survival that would be normal for just plain town. Points to scum or, oddly enough, town protecting a power role.

But the way he has been playing: Vote hopping. Very little reasoning or thinking at all, behind his votes. He's mainly been reacting rather than acting.....

If I can fit his play into his role, then I will unvote but that is going to take a re-read that I'll do during the day or after work.

[Oso]

..
No offense to ender but I seriously doubt he's capable of thinking that far ahead as town or scum.

I haven't played with him before so have no way to judge that but it does add another thinking point.

UNVOTE: ender

From re-reading some, I can't tell if he's scum caught or a townie who is doing a bad, pre-claim, job of staying unlynched while looking scummy enough to avoid drawing an NK so he can use his role.

It's D1 so same thinking applies, at least in my mind, as to Javert's claim in some respects. Give him(ender) a night to show us something.

Back to square 1 though

[Oso]

Checking in to let you folks know I am still here and haven't flaked. I do plan on posting tonight but it may be after everone has called it night (depending on your timezone I guess)

[Oso]

A bit later than I hoped for but I'm back (hopefully for a while).

@Klazam. How is M=W asking about Javert being a One-shot role-fishing? Javert had already claimed his role. Last I checked, asking someone about modifiers to their claim was perfectly acceptable and permitted in order to judge the validity of their claim.

Why assign a scum motivation to it? And why not include me as well. I asked several questions directed to Javert about his role as well.

And about Prosaurus, you will have to take my word on this pretty much but if I hadn't left the game to do some real life stuff, I'd have been asking about his(ender's) Post-130 myself.

Javert mentions it here. I mention it here. Juls mentioned it here. There may be more, those are the people I remember off the top of my head. Why no role-fishing accusations at us. Javert says it looks like a bad rolefish by Pro but dismisses it, I say it could be a soft claim and Juls asks for a full RC.

[Oso]

SCUM FOUND

Post-146:02 April 2005

..
Javert, is your day vig 1-shot?
..

Post-201:04 April 2011

Alright my role is.... One-shot cop.

Post-248:07 April 2011

..
Out of all the things in this game, you think what you perceive to be role-fishing to be the scummiest stuff in the game? Look, I can think of at least one reason for asking that off the top of my head. A doctor trying to figure out whether to protect a vig, which if not 1-shot, would be the best thing to do, or a 1-shot cop, when a 1-shot vig has already used his bullet.

Time line is WAY, WAY screwed up there.

When M=W asked Javert about being a 1-shot, ender hadn't claimed yet. That he tries to counter Klazam's role-fish accusation by using a "Helping a possible Doc decide between a 1-shot Cop and a used up Vig." scenario, well....that stinks.

Role clarification, trying to get the claimant(Javert) to contradict himself on role abilities, seeing if the claimant will balk at a full role reveal...those are all decent pro-town reasons to ask what M=W did.

That he justifies asking the question when called out on it by using evidence in the thread that wasn't there when he asked the question is not.

VOTE: Me=Weird

We've just been lied to folks. The "one reason off the top of my head" that M=E used to justify the question just doesn't hold water.

[Oso]

@Oso: I had a bit different theory then you did with those comment from MW.
..

I'd say go ahead with it but then I'd really like to hear what M=E has to say about it before anyone attacks/endorses/counters my last post.

But if you feel the need to, go ahead.

[Oso]

Klazam: If you were a doctor, would you protect a 1-shot vig who's used his kill and is just confirmed, or a 1-shot cop who's practically confirmed too, and has an investigation to make?
Oso, it's true that ender hadn't claimed, but…
Post-130:02 April 2011

…
I'll find out what he is tonight.
…

he had soft-claimed, and I made a correct assumption on what that meant if he weren't scum.

Shit. Correct answer. As in it is the only answer that you could have given that points to town rather than scum, in my opinion.

UNVOTE: Me=Wierd

For those wondering, why so strong a post then an unvote?

I expected:
1)Denial. "I didn't do that." Followed by:
2)Counterattack. "You are mis-repping what I said. I said there was 'at least one' good reason, there are more. I just used that one."

Didn't happen. He did exactly what I said he did but that he countered the way he did without a lot of bluster makes me believe that is what he was thinking when he made the post. Soft-claim=Cop claim. Role clarification is what that was. That said:

@Javert, I agree with not claiming 1 or multi shot. Let scum have that cup of wine for the night

[Oso]

EBWOP: Forgot. @Farside, I'll take at look at TS. I haven't paid any attention to him so far this game.

[Oso]

..

@Me=Weird/Oso

: Oso, I thought your problem with Me=Weird's questioning Javert about being one-shot had to do with the fact that no one-shot had claimed yet. But then your reaction (post 271) to Me=Weird's answer doesn't support that. Can you explain what was wrong with the timeline if it wasn't the "one-shot" part because that's what I was seeing.
..

Yes, deliberate on my part. M=W's posting did have a glaring contradiction in it from what I could see. Seemed like he was using things in the thread to justify something that happened before those things. But we do have Ender's soft-claim in there.

As I indicated(sort of) in my last post, I was more interested really in how he defended (his tone) rather than what he said in his defense, if that makes any sense.

He didn't react to my post or my vote of him in the way I would have expected to scum to act. The contradiction is there but he simply explained why it wasn't really a contradiction without getting overly-defensive.

The only real problem I have with it is that he specifically used "1-Shot Cop". That piece of information wasn't available to him when he asked Javert the question. But I can stretch that, without too much trouble, to being a player thinking a soft-claim is a cop claim and having that thinking confirmed. "1-Shot Cop" replaces "Cop" in his thinking.

[Oso]

..
Huh? Can explain this clearer? Only thing wrong with that timeline I see is the first post says 2005.
..

Heh, I hadn't noticed that. The 2005, I was freehanding the post numbers and dates in. Not copy/paste.

Short version.

-Questions Javerts about being a 1-shot vig
-ender claims 1-shot Cop.
-M=W defends asking about Javert's number of shots by saying that he wanted clarification. Part of defending that was bringing up ender's role. which he couldn't have know about before ender's claim. He could guess, which he did from ender's soft-claim but it looked a lot like he was defending his asking for role clarification by referencing ender's exact role.

In this case, it looks like effect before cause, which is generally impossible.

[Oso]

@TA. You can consider yourself at L-1 if you wish. I'd vote if we didn't have the question of Javert right now.

(As an aside, I checked. Javert hasn't posted anywhere on site since his last in this thread which was just a hair under 2 1/2 days ago)

I don't have anything original in my reasoning for your vote. Players have pretty much picked over your play so far and caught everything. Some things that do stand out:

1)Your posting lacks coherence. You are all over the place. No follow ups, no prods, no real pokes at players.
2)Votes. Same as above. The only vote you placed where there was a tangible and defensible reason was the vote of Javert.
3)Your vote of NE. Bogus reason. NE maybe wasn't posting as much as others (he[NE] even indicates as much) but his posts generally have content in them. They aren't fluff posts and he isn't posting just to keep his name active in the thread.
4)We are 12 pages and 10 days into the game and you have done absolutely nothing other than just stay active. You haven't made an attack or case of your own. Hell, you haven't even tried to borrow a decent case and reword it. Pretty much active lurking and with your NE vote, I'll have to throw in with EA and add vote parking as well.

The above pretty much, at least in my mind, takes you(Twisted) out of the unsure/null/newish player category and into Scum.

[Oso]

Edit
@TA=@TS.

[Oso]

..
Oso's slip on M=W is interesting, but given the soft claim I think I accept M=W explaination. It is weird that he specifically used 1-shot in his example when at the time he only would have reason to infer "cop" with no knowledge of shot. But I can fill in the blanks myself so I'm not too worried about it.

Reading further:

The only real problem I have with it is that he specifically used "1-Shot Cop". That piece of information wasn't available to him when he asked Javert the question. But I can stretch that, without too much trouble, to being a player thinking a soft-claim is a cop claim and having that thinking confirmed. "1-Shot Cop" replaces "Cop" in his thinking.

I swear I didn't read this before I wrote the above. Weird.
..

Yeah. To clarify though. That is me giving M=W the benefit of the doubt there. I noticed the part you said about this game suffering a form of ADD myself. Good, but confusing. I've made the same sort of mistake myself on occasion in games when activity goes through the roof. Exact timing gets flipped around a bit and you can catch scum that way but just as often I have 'caught' town, and been 'caught' myself as town, because of that.

As a recap of own, I'll try to keep it short.

M=W and Ender are by no means cleared in my thinking although they aren't high on my list of suspects.

M=W because of the way he worded his defense and because he used that exact defense when there were other, equally plausible reasons to defend asking Javert that question without speculating on other roles.

Ender, because of the claim itself. I can see it as a great way to both avoid inadvertently having to sell more innocents than scum can kill and to help avoid a counter sometime after today. I know you(Rhinox) disagree with that but since we both seem to agree that lynching Ender is not the thing to do today, I'm not sure that matters.

Opinion on Javert hasn't changed.

TS(my last post), Javert, Ender and M=E(this post)...I'll leave the recap at that for the moment. If an opinion is needed on any other player, assume 'null/neutral' as of this post.

[Oso]

..
There is something off between Rhinox, Erratus and Ender. Having a CC for Ender means his period of grace is over.
Unvote
vote:Ender241
..

Not that I disagree completely, I had and have some reservations about Ender BUT, how do you figure that TS's role is a direct counter-claim to Ender? I mean, they are identical but if the post of TS's you pointed out is a correct assumption based on what TS already knew about the set-up(his role). Having 2:1-Shot Cops isn't a real stretch.

I'd like more input on how Ender is automatically more scummy than TS because if you disregard their claims, both don't look very good but TS wins in the "scummiest" category hands down.

Point being, if you give TS a pass based on role alone, then you pretty much have to do the same with ender. Their roles are automatically mutually exclusive.

Also:@Maxous.

"There is something off between Rhinox, Erratus and Ender."

Gut? Or do you have references you can use to at least give us an idea of why you think the interactions between the three are off.

[Oso]

Correction edit:

Point being, if you give TS a pass based on role alone, then you pretty much have to do the same with ender. Their roles are automatically mutually exclusive.

should read...

Point being, if you give TS a pass based on role alone, then you pretty much have to do the same with ender. Their roles are

not

automatically mutually exclusive.

[Oso]

..
b) TS is just dripping with scum, but his claim fits with his speculation about a one-shot themed game and it looks like we're going to give him at least a night anyway. I wouldn't loose any sleep if he was killed/lynched, but if the rest of you are moving on, I'm fine with that.
UNVOTE: Twistedspoon

Oddly enough, after going back after TS's claim, I feel better about Ender's claim and TS's claim.

TS's "1-Shot Theme" comment makes more sense now. TS knew his role (if you grant that he is true claiming) and saw Ender's claim and made the assumption that all roles are 1-shots, it even makes his comment that he thought Javert had claimed one shot as well more understandable.

I too will wait on Javert before doing much more of note. 3 claims on D1 is fairly unusual in my experience. That all 3 seem to be PRs...I don't think I have ever seen that happen in a game I have been in before.

[Oso]

..
@Oso: I can ask you the same. How did you get null read from TS, what changed your mind on him when you were willing to put him at L-1?

Um, I don't have a null read on him. He's is still firmly in my suspect list along with ender. Except for their claims.

Willing to give them both a night to see what they do with them. I would refer to this post, Those are still valid reasons for suspecting Twistedspoon in spite of the claim.

Ender I touched on again here.

..
Ender, because of the claim itself. I can see it as a great way to both avoid inadvertently having to sell more innocents than scum can kill and to help avoid a counter sometime after today. I know you(Rhinox) disagree with that but since we both seem to agree that lynching Ender is not the thing to do today, I'm not sure that matters.
..

Between those 2 posts, I mention 4 players:TS, Ender, M=W and Javert that I had some sort of read on. It was the rest of the player's that I put into the 'neutral/null' category because those are the only 4 players I have really looked at in depth. Something I plan on remedying later tonight, have plans for the rest of the day after I get my morning chores and such done. (Actually, the entire weekend has been busier than planned.)

[Oso]

Apologies, That first post link is wrong. I linked to Post-279

It should be to this post: Post-282

..
I don't have anything original in my reasoning for your vote. Players have pretty much picked over your play so far and caught everything. Some things that do stand out:

1)Your posting lacks coherence. You are all over the place. No follow ups, no prods, no real pokes at players.
2)Votes. Same as above. The only vote you placed where there was a tangible and defensible reason was the vote of Javert.
3)Your vote of NE. Bogus reason. NE maybe wasn't posting as much as others (he[NE] even indicates as much) but his posts generally have content in them. They aren't fluff posts and he isn't posting just to keep his name active in the thread.
4)We are 12 pages and 10 days into the game and you have done absolutely nothing other than just stay active. You haven't made an attack or case of your own. Hell, you haven't even tried to borrow a decent case and reword it. Pretty much active lurking and with your NE vote, I'll have to throw in with EA and add vote parking as well.
..

[Oso]

Triple Post. I want to get this out as a thinking point before I get busy today.

Yesterday I thought about this game quite a bit, and I have an idea I want to throw out.

Javert's shot followed by a no-lynch.

1)Get's us a flip and confirms that Javert has at least the ability to daykill.
2)Avoids outing any other roles. I found (I think) what looks to be a breadcrumb to yet another role (and no, I'm not going to point it out), we keep this up and we are going to have to have a mass-claim here on D1 simply because we seem to be hitting all PRs.
3)It allows our three claimed roles to go ahead and use those roles.
4)Downside, we lose the lynch and information we might get by purposely taking someone to a lynch but I believe that will be offset, in this game at least, by allowing what we have showing to go ahead. Normally, I wouldn't even consider a no-lynch D1. This game is turning out to be fairly unique in my experience.

[Oso]

Ok, I get what you are asking now.

A lot had happened in the game since I gave that read. When asked about it, that was the read I had on him. Basically null since he seemed to be acting pretty much the way I had seen him act before and he was town in that game.

The reasons I gave for him being scum later in the game, didn't happen in the game I played with him before. He was willing to make votes and cases (or at least try to, even if it was just glomming to something someone else said he could legitimately agree with). He wasn't exactly what I would call decisive in his play in that game but compared to his play in this game, he was.

Quick ISO him in the game that is in the post you linked above, you will see what I mean.

[Oso]

..
The lag in this game in very noticeable, plus look at the votes. It's really bad that there is no defining BW taking place at this time.

Apologies for my part in that. Didn't get a chance to post at all yesterday and the re-read I was going to do didn't take place in full. Activity will come up today, I promise.

I do see my my idea about a no-lynch got the about the type of reception I thought it would. Never held a lot of hope of it coming to be. For the record, it wasn't to protect the roles we already have showing, at least not directly.

In case he shoots before I make any more substantial posts, If Javert is taking thoughts from others on his target, I have no thoughts on who to kill but do hope that he leaves the two 1-shots alone for today and I'd take Prosaurus out of that as well. It's is mainly gut but this stood out to me while reading back some:

Should probably ask me that as well. EA and Ender defend each other and

gang up on me

. Then Rhinox defends them. I'd say that's scummy.

The bold, that screams to me newb town.

So no opinion on who you should shoot Javert, just a list of folks I hope you don't shoot today.

Will post again later with a vote or a reason(game reason, not real life reason) why I couldn't make one.

[Oso]

Probably(maybe?) going to make several short/medium posts during the day as I re-read and have the slack time, (will stop short of spamming though).

FoS: farside22. Experience cuts against you here. I find it hard to believe you are really propounding the whole “it is antitown to point out an obvious breadcrumb and force a clarification.”

I think you know what you are getting here but I wanted to be sure. You have played with farside before I take it? I know she has been around MS for going on 4 years now but I have never personally played with her.

But it did ping this on another player.

..
No offense to ender but I seriously doubt he's capable of thinking that far ahead as

town or scum.

I agree that one player may know another player well enough to make a good estimation of their abilities. What gets me there is also what I think pinged Javert about farside.

@Rhinox, you have been around long enough to know better than that. You thinking works only if he is town (or 3rd party) and working by himself. He would be either true-claiming, and have no need to think that far ahead, or 3rd party in which he just picked a moderately rare claim (in my experience at least) that just happened to match another we have in the game. (Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

The reason fails, at least in part, if ender is in fact scum because he would have had at least one other brain to call on pre-game if neil allowed the scum QT to be open before the day started. No way in hell to know exactly what was discussed pre-game until the game is over but it is not unreasonable to think there might have been a discussion on what types of fake-claims might stand a chance of squeaking by for at least a day.

So the bold part, actually the whole quote above, has no meaning. As town, he(ender) has no need to think that far ahead. As scum, he(ender) isn't relying solely on himself to think of things, although part of that relies on exactly what was discussed pre-game. Only if ender is 3rd party is any part (the part that has him not town and having to think solely on his own) of that reason valid.

You, Rhinox, are including in your thinking, a reason to help clear ender in your mind that really holds no validity....why?

[Oso]

..
but arguing why ender is town isn't going to help us lynch scum today.
..

I agree to certain extent, what I am trying to do is weed out folks who think Ender (and I guess by association TS and Javert) are town or at least not lynch-worthy today for good reasons and those who are just making up reasons because they have knowledge of alignment.

I'm in a bit of weird spot at the moment gamewise. Our two best, high probability lynches based solely on play, are claimed. Ender and TS.

A close second(third?) to those two would be Me=Wierd except I disagree with some of what has been directed at him. His asking about Javert's shot ability is absolutely not what he has been accused of:Role Fishing. Javert had already claimed so it is "nails on chalkboard" type of irritating when I see that in a post by someone (generic someone here) who I have a town read on. But since I can see some of the reasons why scum would be interested in that info, I haven't given him a full pass.

The current subject of interest (Klazam) is starting to look like a default lynch. But that is because of a lack of participation (from where I sit) followed by promises to get involved and halfhearted attempts (it looks like) to get involved rather than anything scummy he has done. He has made one of the better posts of the game from what I can see.

..
From my POV, it would benefit scum quite a bit if they knew whether Javert was a one shot dayvig or not. I didnt see a valid town reason to ask that question. Now, M=W's explanation involving a doctor seems quite contrived. If there was a doctor, He would know as much as the scum did.

If Javert wasnt a one shot dayvig, scum would want to kill him. There is no way for the scum to know right now. Therefore they would kill him, just to be safe. A rational doctor would see this and protect him (sadly, by me mentioning it, it wont happen, i'm sure.). In this, i do not see a town benefit to knowing that information. If Javert outs that he is a one shot vig, boom, the possible PR pool just was reduced by one.

And that post is the primary reason why Me=Weird is still high on my suspect list. And I agree with many of the reads he gave in post before last. (Post 391)

I hate going back on reads and day-passes but at this point, I'm out of viable/lynchworthy suspects at the moment based solely on play, so I may have to which means I'm probably going to go back to a Me=Wierd vote. Haven't decided yet. Still a few timelines and cross references I want to make first.

[Oso]

Alright, sorry everyone for being away.

Top 3 scum from everyone.

Sure, You first. I'll help with your list by putting the first one in there.

1)ender241
2)..
3)..

You can put the other two in there at your convenience.

For me;

Me=Weird
ender241
Twistedspoon

in roughly that order. <actual vote still pending though as stated in my last>

[Oso]

..I also find it odd how Oso agrees with his reads(Post 369).
..

Not all of them. What I said in 369 was

"...And I agree with many of the reads he gave in post before last.

Here are his reads for reference:

Twistedspoon- I believe his claim

{I'll add my own disclaimer here:FOR NOW}

, play pretty much matches up nicely with the claim.

Juls- Feels town

Oso- Feels town
Rhinox- Feels town

Necessary Evil- Null: hard to read,

more quality posts than me, but less posts in total.

EA- Slightly scummy

because I find his all-out attack of me a bit odd,

can’t put my finger on it.

(Yeah, right now, I would be calling for the vigging of myself, but at the beginning, I was EA’s first choice for vigging, even after I was absent for a couple days)

Prosaurus- Scum because of the way he posted. Yeah, that rolefishing is included.
Me=Weird- At first I thought he was scum, but now I’m not so sure so I’ll say null.

Maxous- Feels town
Farside- Feels town

Javert- I highly doubt that scum would have dayvigging powers. Once he vigs someone, he’s confirmed town IMO.
Ender- I believe the claim for now,

but I recoginize in his shoes, a 1 shot cop would be a pretty good fakeclaim. More likely than TS to be mafia.

Exclude my entry on that list. The bold are ones that I agree with, the italicized ones are the ones I don't. The rest I'm still making my mind up on.

In regards to M=W, jury is still out on my actual opinion of him as I am conflicted. Head says scum, gut is screaming town. Not that I expect this to make any sense at all to most folks but my head is better at finding scum than my gut is. Gut is better at finding town. It is rare that I have both on complete opposite sides of the same argument. Usually one is yammering at me while the other is silent mostly.

I'm for bed I think. I've been reading this game for the last 4 or 5 hours and it is all starting to blur. I'll let my subconscious work on it for a bit.

[Oso]

do we get the flip then?

Yes, I would think so. Might take a while though. If I have it right, neil is in the Central US time Zone (Just after 12:00pm) could be several hours before he even looks at ms.

[Oso]

Phht.

Going to go with my head here rather than my gut.

VOTE: Me=Wierd

A scum flip of either ender or Me=Weird would have nailed the alignment of both down enough for me to pretty much remove all doubt.

To explain that I'll refer back to my initial vote post of M=W:Post-261. Specifically, the use of "1-Shot Cop". Had either ender or Me=Wierd showed up as scum, I'd have assumed some sort of prior shenanigans despite what my gut said.

I am modifying my reasons somewhat, though as there can not, obviously, be a connection between ender and M=W and I'm pretty much going to endorse this reasoning with my vote: Klazam's Post-255. I've quoted it before but I'll do the relevant part again.

..
From my POV, it would benefit scum quite a bit if they knew whether Javert was a one shot dayvig or not. I didnt see a valid town reason to ask that question. Now, M=W's explanation involving a doctor seems quite contrived. If there was a doctor, He would know as much as the scum did.
..

To clarify. Yes, I did get what I would consider to be a "town" reaction to my strong vote post of M=W. He didn't try to counter attack me nor did he try to deflect. He calmly answered the reasoning set forth.

I said as much here:

..
As I indicated(sort of) in my last post, I was more interested really in how he defended (his tone) rather than what he said in his defense, if that makes any sense.

He didn't react to my post or my vote of him in the way I would have expected to scum to act. The contradiction is there but he simply explained why it wasn't really a contradiction without getting overly-defensive.

The only real problem I have with it is that he specifically used "1-Shot Cop". That piece of information wasn't available to him when he asked Javert the question.

But I can stretch that, without too much trouble, to being a player thinking a soft-claim is a cop claim and having that thinking confirmed. "1-Shot Cop" replaces "Cop" in his thinking.

The strike through part is the part I'm no longer using. I'm no longer willing to let my giving him the benefit of the doubt stretch quite that far.

As to what I would call the "town" reaction I got from him, that is what my gut is screaming at me. Head says that it is much more indicative of player's ability to react well under pressure than anything alignment based.

[Oso]

So your basic point there is that I advocated a no-lynch after a vig? Why didn't you bring this up when I made the suggestion if it was so all fired scummy.

The first part, I leave it to the folks in the game to iso me in relation to both Ender's and TS's claim. You will see it basically boils down to leaving the claimed roles alone to give them a chance to give us something but when asked directly about my reads, neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list. The just got put into a wait and see list.

The quote of mine you used up there:

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was thinking and hoping at the time I made that post. Still am actually which is why I'm not going to advocate a TS lynch today

[Oso]

@ Erratus

Why is it a lie? Or even bad play?

D1, two claimed, 1-shot PRs. Being willing to believe the claims for the remainder of the day, hoping both are true, while still being highly suspicious of the players making the claims.

I don't see the problem here.

[Oso]

If you are going to include Javert, then it would be 3 claimed, 2 confirmed:Ender and Javert.

Erratus is concentrating on my opinions of Ender and TS pre-vig kill. That is what I am answering in that post.

[Oso]

What strikes me about the quotes Erratus brought up is that Oso kept saying I beleive them

for now

. It should be a matter of beleiving them or not.. this actually comes across as leaving his options open. He's not really giving a position. I'm a bit disappointed I did'nt pick up on that sooner..but that is why the town work together with these things =)
I'll look back on Oso later when I've more time, along with that Ender bandwagon (I know I'm there, but still)

Uh, no. I'll re-quote something I said earlier:

..
D1, two claimed, 1-shot PRs. Being willing to believe the claims for the remainder of the day, hoping both are true, while still being highly suspicious of the players making the claims.
..

That is pay-off vs risk. That is why it seems to be wishy-washy but isn't. This is the same type of reasoning (in addition to other things) many gave in their reason to believe Javert without too much trouble. In Javert's case, his ability to day-kill was provable where we could see it. In the case of TS and Ender, it isn't as cut and dried.

Make no mistake, had Javert reneged or waffled on his promise to kill today, many would have been voting his lynch.

The same for TS and Ender. I can take their claim at face value for the time being, but still be suspicious of them and voice misgivings about them when asked questions like "Top 3 scum reads please." Ender is proven to have been telling the truth. Unfortunately, he is dead now. My type of thinking in regards to claims, especially D1, is give the player a chance to prove them unless there is some overriding reason not to.

Both Ender's and TS's play, didn't warrant much trust. That is why they had to claim. I'm fairly certain that had either one claimed VT, we wouldn't be having this conversation right now as the one who claimed VT first, would have been lynched based on their play. That is why they didn't become 'obvtown' in my mind, or even cross from probable scum into neutral/null. They went into "wait and see." Don't vote, don't attack but certainly don't lie or try and gloss over what you are thinking of them when asked.

Hopefully, that will clear up my thinking on this. Without the PR claim, Ender would have been lynched. Same with TS if he had not claimed PR. The only thing that kept me from pushing Ender was his claim. The only thing that prevented me from actually voting TS was caution to not let scum end the day unexpectedly and his claim.

Being willing to vote/push/lynch in spite of the claims would not have been in the best interest of town at best, as we can see from ender's flip it can bite town in the ass. Outright scummy at worst.

[p-edit]
farside, hopefully the above will answer your question. If not, ask again and I would point to the partial disclaimer I put in that quote in regards to TS: Twistedspoon- I believe his claim{

I'll add my own disclaimer here:FOR NOW

} The part of that in brackets wasn't in Klazam's original post, I added that to show conditional agreement with the read.

[Oso]

*Sigh*
He thinks they're scummy. But they claimed PRs, and if they're truthful like Ender, it's better to lynch someone else. Therefore, he's

willing

to believe their claims, incase they're truthful like Ender. But they still seem scummy. Get it?

Oso, this is what you meant, right? Or should I be agreeing with EA?

Yes, that is exactly what I meant.

Quid pro quo

This for that.

Action did change, I did stop voting or attacking either one of them, based on the implied promised made in their claim: usable results that will help town.

Attitude did not and will not change, at least in TS's case now, until something tangible has been given to justify the conditional trust given based on his claim of 1-Shot Cop.

[Oso]

^But, confirmed town can be scummy, but they wouldn't be on scumlists. You're saying you believe their claims, but they're still acting scummy, so you're keeping them on your list. I'll repeat that. You are saying that you believe their claims, but still think they're scum.

My belief in their claims is conditional, I thought I was making that clear. You and Erratus are making it out (and maybe actually believe it) that I somehow granted them unconditional town status simply because of their claims. I didn't.

[Oso]

Well, I looked at the breadcrumbs Juls pointed out and they are there:

{1}

M

y (hopefully triumphant) return to mafia has arrived! {2}See

a

few familiar faces: Rhinox, Erratus Apathos, farside22, ender24.

{3}Let's get

s

tarted! {4}Hmmm...after reading

o

ver the first few posts, there is no one better to vote than....Vote: Rhinox.

{5}I know, right, not

v

ery surprising?

Except I think Juls was off by a word in the fifth sentence of her crumb.

Vote Twisted
{1}

M

ostly a random vote, if you know what I mean. ;D

{2}Hey

a

ll, how much experience do you have? {3}I’m really

s

hitty on D1, because I haven’t figured out how to play well on D1. {4}I’m hoping that

o

n this game, I’ll do much better.

{5}We can all hope,

n

ow, can’t we?

No reason from my end to disbelieve Juls. Neither have set off any bells with me since the game started.

My vote remains on M=W.

As to NE, generally positive about his play. As in low probability of being scum. He hasn't posted enough for me to have it be a really solid read. His posts don't contain a whole lot of fluff though. Did a quick ISO of him and all I can see is a lack of posting from him. He does make cases and place votes, his posts have thought put into them.

[Oso]

I'll add my welcome to Quilford as well.

As a quick recap for you. We have two claimed 1-shot cops: Ender(dead and confirmed) and Twistedspoon. Vigilante (Javert), 1-Shot according to the vig scene and also what I would also consider confirmed as well. Two claimed masons(yourself and Juls).

[Oso]

Easy. From the OP:

1. ender241 One-Shot Cop was

Vigged

Day 1.

Vigilante(Day or Night, 1-Shot or multi-shot) is a

TOWN

role. The scum counterpart to Javert's claimed role is Assassin.

Also, he did exactly what he said he was going to do. He didn't waffle on the claim and he pretty much explained it fully. The only thing he held back was how many shots he had and I can agree with that.

In addition, I'll agree with what others have said about the rarity of what they would class as a 'scum vig' in mini normals.

Javert's town.

[Oso]

Vote: Twistedspoon

.

Still doubt we would happen to wagon two 2-Shot Cops one after the other, and Twistedspoon has spent his last several posts (as well as posts before I used my shot) to try to undermine me as opposed to hunting scum.

Uhhh, wut?

Let's see. Javert claims, let Javert prove his claim as it is easily provable.

Ender claims PR, give him a chance to show us he's not lying.

TS claims PR and it's the same as Ender's but both are one shots so not a direct counter claim as there could be two one shots of the same type in a game, give him a chance to show us he's not lying.

Juls claims for herself and Klazam, so unusual a claim that no direct proof is really needed by players but like Javert's, easily provable if one of them shows up dead at some point.

Take this up again tomorrow Javert, after a night to at least give TS a chance to prove his claim.

[Oso]

About Quilford..he can catch up during the night period if needs be. He's certainly not going to be lynched today either way.

But his participation would be nice before night though.

@MOD: Day or two deadline extension, maybe? Seeing as how Quilford replaced in so close to deadline

[Oso]

I have my doubts that faking a guilty on NE was the best move in that situation but it all worked out I guess =D

what would you have done?

[pops back in]

Risk analysis.
The odds of a true Cop getting a guilty in the situation are slim to none I would think. Too big a risk for scum that early in that game. A true cop would have been targeted by an RB or killed. Even if the killer ended up eating a lynch, if there were a watcher or tracker in the game, still an even trade for scum. Scum can't trade one for one with town but losing a goon in exchange for the cop is something I wouldn't even think about seriously as the likelihood is high that the Tracker or the Watcher is going to have to out themselves in order to get you a lynch esp. if the person making the kill has played at least semi-decently. Even if it costs a goon, the possibility of outright eliminating one PR (a dangerous one at that) and outing a second is too good to pass up despite the risk, in my opinion. You do have the possibility of a Doc save, Watch/Track combo that outs the killer but that brings me to my next...

The possibility of confirming a Doc/Jail Keeper/Town RB type role(s). You may end up with a No-Kill Night 1 but then you have confirmed a town role that can interfere with your kills. The involuntary no-kill N1 may not be optimal but it comes with a bit more knowledge about town power as compensation.

To answer your question, in your shoes I would have considered the following as optimal: Claim to have been blocked. You were a scum RB so there is a possibility that later in the game a town PR (this is generic here, not specific to this game) would have had a 'no result' night based on your actions and would have had to confirm that during claim. Puts a town point in your column because now you have a townie also saying they were blocked.

Next: Sell an innocent. I know I stated I had that problem with Ender's claim (and by association, yours) but there is absolutely no way (like the option above) that it can be proved as false at the time you give the result other than by a player convincing the majority that their gut feeling is accurate. It was more along the lines of 'be on the lookout'....

So that you were alive, unblocked and had a guilty result set off all sorts of flags for me. I was on my way out then (I asked for replacement early D2) so I dummied up and didn't say this then I wasn't comfortable posting at all once I knew I was going to replace out.

But it was interesting to read this (I kept up about once a week) and is one of the better games I been involved in (no matter how briefly) in a while. Thanks to all for that.