Open 272 - Near-Vanilla (Over!)

Regfan · Post Post #937 (isolation #0) » Fri Mar 25, 2011 11:58 am

Hey everyone, I've replaced brokenscraps. I've skimmed the game before replacing in so I have a fair idea of what's occured but I'll do a detailed read sometime today. Just some things I want to point out for discussion purposes before I re-read.

1) How has Magua not been policy lynched for being an awful player yet?

1) With the remaining roles being Doctor/JK/5 VT's/2 Mafia Goons does anyone think that Doctor/JK claiming PR today would be beneficial? If mafia don't counter-claim PR, then we have two clears and two less people to suspect/work around and if mafia do claim PR we just get them to fully claim for a direct cc. Doing it this way we have 2 ML's, with 7 unclears and the possibilty that mafia won't be able to kill a PR, as if they're on each other mafia only have a 50% chance to kill succesfully. On top of this, mafia shooting them again after an unsucessful kill means that another protect/nokill has another 50% likelyhood of occuring. This means that mafia know that if they shoot between doc/JK unsucessfully twice in a row which has a 25% chance of occuring then we attain another ML with two clears still alive.

2) Can everyone summarize into one post who their current town-reads and scum-reads are and why?

3) As much as I know night-kill speculation is frowned upon on this site, can you all list why you think lord_hur bit the bullet?

Regfan · Post Post #939 (isolation #1) » Fri Mar 25, 2011 1:44 pm

I'm mid-way through Day 2 at the moment, page 23 I believe. I'm going to state my reads as of then even though they're highly likely to chance between now and then.

Egg is un cc'ed JK, thus clear.

Andrew

: Lack of content but I do have a town read on him due to the following posts: #65, #90, #214, #318 and#368 where his interaction with Batt makes them seem unlikely to be partners. So overall I'm

leaning towards heavy town for him.

AntB:

Throws mixed tells, has signs of early overdefensivenss however some slight town-tells from him as well, I certaintly don't agree with a lot of what he's said but I can see how he would get to some of those conclusions. As for his earlier posts: Post #60 screams of overdefensiveness. Post #69 seems like frantic covering up. Post #80 is far better then previous ones. Post #96 reads odd, 'I would have to be proven wrong first' doesn't seem right. Post #103 makes me doubt he's mafia a bit. Overall I currently I have a

null-read on him.

Shotty/Bella:

Shottys Post #249 seems like a geninue town-tell. Bella replaces him and began posting highly logical content, her play was slightly reserved but from what I've read that fits with her town meta. Post #294 shows a highly logical point. Post #320 by Jesse makes me feel more comfortable by this Bella slot. So does Post #359.

Leaning towards Bella being town.

David/Magua:

Davids, intial posts seem productive, though he seeemed to have a massive obsession with bringing Jesse into it without doing/saying any extreme reason as to why Jesse is mafia. Evident in which posts: Post #308 and Post #503, agree with Lord seems like a town-slip here. I haven't read anything that Magua has added himself yet as of where I'm up to

I'd lean town for David.

Farside22:

Seems to be fencesitting a lot, attempting to prove cases via meta however never really pushing a lynch. Has a high reliance on meta however I haven't seen it be effective at all in this game, in fact her 'meta' led her of a mafia lynch D1. As for her early posts: Post #36 doesn't sit well with me, seems like an attempt to fake town-tell/push towards Nacho without actually stating you suspect him. Post #54 same as above. Post #72 is just filler. Post #114 is much better but actually doesn't add much to the game. Post #142 Fencesitting. Post #163 More fencesitting, no real action taken in this and previous posts. Post #169 shows an attempt to scumhunt but i'm curious as to why Farside checked Drmys games not AntB's given the conversation going on. Post #298 is horseshit. Post #328, first vote on Jesse, questions him while doing it but quickly unvotes afterwards. Overall Farsides my biggest scumread in this game by far, though I need to catch up with the rest of D2/D3 before I consider placing a vote.

Leaning mafia.

Archer

is someone whose posts read as scum to me yet overall re-reading them I don't have the biggest scumread on him. The few things I have noted from his posts though are: Post #79 makes me fairly confident he's not mafia with AntB, so if AntB flips mafia then Archers town, same vice-versa. Post #136 sets of alarm bells, will re-read into it as does #138. Post #155 of Jesse leads me to think Archer is mafia too. Post #177 alarm bells again. Post #192 self-recognition tell. Post #203, decent post need to re-read it later. Post #222 Archer jumps onto things that were mentioned and settled far earlier. Overall,

leaning scum on Archer.

Looker,

wow. I've gone through this entire game thus far without seeing any notable post by him that leads me to think he's town or mafia, going to have to read into him later. As for now,

null read on him.

Cut by Andrew: Andrew, because doctor/JK would random protect/save the other person. Thus if mafia shoot at the doctor there's a 50% chance the JK has him saved and no kill will occur.

Regfan · Post Post #941 (isolation #2) » Fri Mar 25, 2011 1:52 pm

Clearly you don't understand it Andrew so I'll explain it in a different way. Say JK random saves between the doctor and elsewhere while the doctor always stays on the JK.

Therefore there's 2 options the JK can take, lets assume option 1 is JK saving doctor and Option 2 is LK not saving doctor.

Option 1:
If the JK random saves the doctor. Doctors powers no longer work, but if mafia shoot at the doctor no one dies. 50% chance of occuring.
If the JK random saves the doctor. Doctors powers no longer work, but if mafia shoot the LK, the LK dies. 50% chance of that occuring.

Option 2:
If the JK random saves anyone but the doctor. The doctors powers do work, if mafia shoot the doctor, the doctor dies. 50% chance of occuring.
If the JK random saves anyone but the doctor. The docots powers do work, it mafia shoot the LK, no one dies. 50% chance of occuring.

Regfan · Post Post #943 (isolation #3) » Fri Mar 25, 2011 2:06 pm

Sorry I do mean JK instead of LK, and you're missing the point. I never said they're random. But if mafia take a punt at whether the JK is protecting the doctor or not, they really only have a 50% chance of being correct or not.

Regfan · Post Post #952 (isolation #4) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 4:26 am

Alright finally fully caught up, jesus christ never replacing into a 40 page game again, that took forever. First of some general points: 1) Why the fuck was Conspiracy lynched yesterday? Sure SSS might have been scummy but ConSpiracy was fucking obvious town, Magua you're better than that. Why would a player replace in, read 20 pages and then attempt to set up a full blown attack on someone who was barely FoS'ed as mafia. 2) Why the fuck hasn't Farside been lynched yet? I really do not understand the play of majority of this room thus far.

Alright, now to progress to my reads, I'll make this as short as I can because I'm not in the mood of typing up a massive analysis after reading that shitstorm I just did:

Andrew: Obv town.

Bella: Leaning very heavily towards town.

Egg: Obv clear town.

AntB: Null-leaning town

, a lot of his posts have lacked any real depth of content and his bickering with Andrew has been plain stupid, but I find his defence when put up for a lynch to be one of an annoyed townie.
Post #586 - Overdefensiveness, no one doubted that a spam attack occured, thus you mentioning it pointless.
Post #609 - Read this as a town-tell, need to re-read it to make sure later.

Archer: Leaning scum on him, though if Farside is mafia then he's town.

Post #528 - Seems like an attempt to contribute without contributing anything, this posts merely a filler.
Post #541 - Post has no real content, asks a question others have already asks, another filler.
Post #605 - Long post that just essentially says loli'mfencesitting.
Post #619 - Moar fencesitting.
Post #682 - Awful post not sure if I lean scum/null from it though.
Post #772 - This post makes me highly doubt an Archer+Farside pairing.

Looker: Leaning scum

, none of his posts have been that productive or helpful, though he does defend and response decently.
Post #540 - This post reeks of scum attempting to direct attention and push multiple different lynches. He uses the word 'Off-putting' to explain majority of his issues.
Post #647 - Place sitter to read into depth later.
Post #577 'That sucks; I thought Archer was town', what? No flip had occured, just because the clear FoS'ed your town read doesn't mean it's incorrect, explain the logic behind that please.
Post #599 - This post made me headdesk multiple times, I don't understand any logic stated in it. Lord changing to Farside leads to him being mafia in what way? Lol wow, Lord keeps saying what I mean in the following posts, #601 is essentially what I mean.

Magua/David - Leaning town, not that heavy though.

I think Magua would play a lot better than to lynch ConSp as town, though I had a strong town-read on David this spot worries me heavily now.

Farside - Extremely obvious mafia.

Not sure why I even need to point out why.
Post #546 - Votes Smash for 'lurking' and not posting as he has in other games, this is one of the weakest reasons I have ever seen, considering the high amount of content and information in the game surely you're not lurker voting on D2.
Post #551 - This is a good post, except for one thing if you think he's sliding scum why is your vote not on him?
Post #573 - Lolbuddying.
Post #591 - I disagree with strongly, this post seems more like an attempt to egg on Ant to self-hammer. Just saw Lord_Hur say exactly what I was thinking in post #595.
Post #719 - Wuutt? Egg posted ALL of Batts comments and you said it was an excellent post, now you're saying you missed something on it? Don't buy it.
Post #726 1. 'This has proven to be untrue on D2 2. What sort of defence is that. 3. This was asked/ordered for at the start of D2, you hadn't given him time to be 'quiet or not'.
Post #738 - The 'If I get lynched' is very out of place, especially considering it's not directed at Egg who would have control of an alternate lynch.
Post #742 - What, Consp is scum due to what? You've never stated real reasoning behind this instead you've changed your read from AntB from scum to town over nothing.
Post #768 - Soft-claiming doc would be stupid to do as scum.
Post #829 - This post seems as if she already knows Cons is flipping town, major change of the way shes acting/talking in it.
POst #882 - Whatt? Him FoS'ing you is a scum-tell? Jesus christ how are you not lynched yet.

Vote: Farside

Regfan · Post Post #954 (isolation #5) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 4:52 am

farside22 wrote:How is lurking town? How is posting in other games even considered town and not avoiding a game?

How is it a scum-tell? It's a null-tell. There's no two ways around it.

farside22 wrote:No soft claiming to out the real doctor as scum is the way to go. Any scum worth their salt would want to out the doctor at a chance to kill a confirmed townie.

Outing the doctor means that JK/Doctor can be on each other, the gain isn't very substancial, whereas soft-claiming doctor means that you essentially seal your lynch. The number of votes on you and what was going on certaintly wasn't showing it to be that likely that you would be lynched, that being Egg never stated he FoS'ed you, and Egg had a large amount of control in regards tot he lynch meaning soft-claiming would be stupid as scum.

farside22 wrote:I'm not lynched because I'm town. Geez.

Naise defence.

farside22 wrote:Do I think I should been lynched do to my play, hell I would have self voted and almost did but because people frown at town self votes and consider it against their win con that I didn't. I know my play this game hurts the town.

Woulda, shoulda, coulda, mean nothing, you stating that you were 'willing to selfvote' is just an attempt to seem town, it has no ground behind it yet you continue to mention it.

farside22 wrote:Looker and Archer are scum together.

Then you have no problem taking the lynch?

Regfan · Post Post #956 (isolation #6) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 5:06 am

The second is 50/50 chance of being saved.

Again, what's the benefit in outting the doctor when it means:
A) You 100% get lynched.
B) Mafia will only have a 50% chance of shooting correctly, otherwise town have a decent shot at getting another msylnch.
Not just that, say by some miracle they do manage to kill the doctor, the JK can state who he is going to jail that night, if he jails them and dies, town have a clear, if he jails and kill occurs, town lynch the jailed. Repeat. If no-kill occurs two nights in a row, woopie town won themselves a msylnch. So the only way mafia have any real shot at winning in this position is NK'ing the doctor while there are two of them alive, thus at the moment they have to do EVERYTHING in their power to survive.

I even have an ace in my pocket and I'm not using it, that is how much I believe in my own theory.

I suggest you use it, otherwise your lynch will be fast (Assuming Magua got his brain back).

Regfan · Post Post #957 (isolation #7) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 5:12 am

@Mod: Bella and Egg need to be prodded.

Regfan · Post Post #959 (isolation #8) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 5:49 am

Here he states he needs two replacements, doesn't state names nor does he state order in which the replacements would go through in. Even the first time he doesn't state player name, thus I'd believe the order in which he would replace players would be random. No offence to the mod or anything, but I don't believe he thinks through replacement order that deeply. Thus I would consider it a complete null-tell and I believe you would as well.

Regfan · Post Post #961 (isolation #9) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 5:55 am

I just lol'd. I don't know how I missed this intially, but you essentially just slipped.

Farside:
figured he was the doctor yesterday (day 2) when the mod replaced him first (SoS had been needed as a replacement longer) and the mod replaced DP first before SoS. I even stated yesterday the mod may have made a mistake and had a theory based on it.

Implies that you thought SSS's role was less important than Davids. You thought SSS was mafia, you pushed for SSS's replacements lynch and infact called him sure mafia. In what way is doctor more important than mafia and more vital to fill.

Moar votes on Farside.

Regfan · Post Post #963 (isolation #10) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:11 am

1) If you thought he was town, why push a lynch on him? In fact, why turn your AntB scumread to a AntB townread purely due to this spots actions if you believed he was a VT.
2) Yes I strongly disagree, replacing a mafia is way more important than replacing a doc in a 9 player room with 2 mafia.
3) Stop flailing, you'll still win when all the town players need to be replaced and no one wants to read 40+ pages.

Regfan · Post Post #965 (isolation #11) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:41 am

1) I don't need to answer why you wouldn't have killed Magua if I prove that your logic and thought process wasn't one of 'Mod replaced PR first!'.
2) Do I really need to answer why it's more important to replace mafia over town? Seriously? A) Town can't win unless they have mafia to scum-hunt, therefore having a player which hasn't been replaced being mafia is a huge issue. B) I don't think he replaced in relation to importance of role, I've said this already, I find the replacement order a null-tell.
3) I want to lynch you over both of them becuase of the multiple multiple reasons I've stated already.
4) You're the one who said you'll accept it without worrying about reasoning, now you're attempting to deflect, so much for 'Lynch me and it's fine because I've told you both mafia'.

Moar votes please.

Regfan · Post Post #967 (isolation #12) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:51 am

You've stated how strong and certain you are in your FoS's on Looker and Archer, with 2 ML"s, even if you were one of them, with one ML after you, you don't think town would win?
You believe that lynching you would be considered a scum-tell after both ConSp and Lord both attempted to do so and flipped town?
You think lynching you would appear to be a scum-tell after you said you understand that lynching you is for the good of the town?

I love contradictions.

Regfan · Post Post #970 (isolation #13) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 7:14 am

I could be scum attempting to create msylnches? Didn't you just state I was town? Oh, I like people changing reads over nothing.

So, I could be wrong about them if I'm wrong about you? You were wrong about ConSpiracy, does that mean you must be wrong about Looker/Archer then? Lol, illogical attempt at convincing me isn't going to work. 'I'm looking forward to a bah post and egg on your face'. This is clearly an attempt to emotionally convince me, and a poor one at that.

Your two 'Logical points'.

'Logical' point 1) So if I was scum why wouldn't I try and push a lynch on someone I know was a PR?
Lets say you believe what you're saying in which you would push towards Magua thinking he's a PR. What case are you going to make against the person in which everyone holds a severe town-read on in order to convince them to vote him to get a claim from him. If by some miracle you do manage to get this to occur, you don't think Magua will work you're mafia and have you lynched putting scum in a hard position? Lol logical point isn't looking so logical anymore, amiright?

'Logical' point 2) Why with my thought process would I as scum not kill someone I believe is the doctor.
Semi-logical point, under the assumption of two things:
A) You thought he was doc due to the mod arrangments, I've proven that I believe this to be untrue due to you pushing towards SSS's replacement.
B) You didn't think Lord was doc, in which you said yourself that he looked like doc meaning his kill would be perfectly understandable for you to complete.

Regfan · Post Post #972 (isolation #14) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 7:36 am

You said you had two points before, one being you would have attempted to get the PR lynched, I've proved via logic that this point is incorrect yet you still attempt to insist you have two. You're stating your two logical points are now. You knew Mag was doc. You knew Lord wasn't doc because Mag was. These are both the same thing. Show me the post in which you stated Mag was a PR yesterday since you insist you did so.

If you use facts, you would have known claiming doc would be bad, you would know that likelyhood of one FoS being wrong doesn't affect the likelyhood of the other being wrong, it remains the same. If you use facts, you would never have brought up that you would have attempted to lead on Magua when Magua was FoS'ed by no one.

Regfan · Post Post #976 (isolation #15) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 7:53 am

Also and point of order to Consp who quoted my post. He missed my soft claim (which I did on purpose) which tells me since he received his PM just recently. He doesn't recognize a town PM.

This was actually one of the reasonings you used behind the Consp lynch, if you believed the mod had made a mistake (That being given a certain role out before another in replacements) why would you beleive that he gave all the players the exact same role definition. A VT is a VT, the wording behind and with it means nothing. Therefore you stating that you had a theory along with this part of the previous post is a complete contradiction.

Regfan · Post Post #979 (isolation #16) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:27 am

What? Are you serious here Farside? You're still saying 'Why wouldn't I think he's mafia when he doesn't recognize my role PM'?

Regfan · Post Post #981 (isolation #17) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:43 am

Bella, if you think it's a plain miscommunication and nothing more, then do you believe Farside is town? Y/N?
If N, who do you think is mafia then?
If Y, who do you think her partner is?

Regfan · Post Post #987 (isolation #18) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:02 pm

I'm going to be brutally honest, take from it what you will, I can't tell if you're mafia, playing horribly or just plain trolling Magua. Highly tempted to give you an ultimatium of if you have 2 days to vote farside or convince me of an alternate lynch otherwise I change to you.

Magua:
Now. Is this a serious question? Because the answer is obvious: to get someone that's not you lynched. Or did you miss all of those vote counts during your reread? Because the farside wagon was the leading wagon up until three days before deadline.

At the time there was much more support for other lynch possibilities, Farside was not the easy lynch at the time at all, if he were to read 20+ pages, isn't he more likely to attempt to create a case against someone who was easier to push and more people FoS'ed. On top of that, the case was highly valid it's not as if the occurances of what she did was stretched so in what right is creating a case such as that a scum-tell. Farsides wagon simply because of one thing, and one thing only the fact everything she was saying was highly illogical and absurd as well as the fact she became obvious mafia.

In reponse to his reads, all of them were explained if I remember correctly you had similar reads to that of Lord, would you agreeing with Lords reads be a scum-tell? I don't think so, so why is ConSp having similar reads to you a scum-tell.

Now to progress onto why Farside is mafia and should be lynched

[*]She attempted to push towards Nacho soley due to meta reasons that were clearly wrong.
[*]She changed her vote to Jesse briefly and then jumped of almost the second that Jesse responded defending Jesses lynch until the end. Stated herself that she saw how it could be viewed as a scum-tell but pushed towards ConSp when he mentioned/brought it up.
[*]A great deal of her earlier posts were either fillers/showing fencesitting.
[*]Deep into the game votes someone due to their 'lurking' and nothing else when she stated she had suspects already.
[*]Shows hints of buddying with Egg without posting any logical suggestions to him - In fact asks him to out who he JK'd.
[*]Contradicts herself when she mentioned Egg had an excellent post and then later claims not to know something that was in it.
[*]Pushes towards Consp for very poor reasoning states shes fine being lynched but doesn't show that, meaning her says shes fine is just an emotional ploy.
[*]States she would soft-claim doc as mafia, inists upon it, when that's proven wrong and illogical jumps to 'I would have shot Magua I knew he was doc due to mod actions' which contradicts her pushing towards ConSpiracy.
[*]Changes her opinion on players soley based on how much they beleive shes's town/mafia
[*]States she was sure it was Archer+Looker, but now Archer was only mafia in the list due to lack of suspects when she ruled out AntB as mafia due to strong scum reads.

Regfan · Post Post #989 (isolation #19) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:17 pm

Unvote, Vote: Magua

Mafia is Looker+Farside. But lets lynch useless town first.

Regfan · Post Post #991 (isolation #20) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:30 pm

Sure, your play here resembles that of frustrated townie, whereas other games not so much (They're ongoing we can't discuss them).

I'm voting useless town because Magua isn't going to help us at all, infact he's going to continue to defend and prevent an obvscum lynch.

Regfan · Post Post #994 (isolation #21) » Mon Mar 28, 2011 3:27 am

farside22 wrote: OMG Regan I swear to God get your fucking vote off the obvious fucking town and put you vote on either archer, looker or me! Are you fucking 3 or something? You don't get your fucking way so you have to put and push a mislynch!

UUUUUGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!

The balls in Maguas court.

Regfan · Post Post #996 (isolation #22) » Mon Mar 28, 2011 5:30 am

Bella, mind putting your vote up on Farside please.

Regfan · Post Post #999 (isolation #23) » Mon Mar 28, 2011 7:26 am

AntB wrote:Don't like this "DO OR DIE!" attitude from Regfan, why not move some pressure on to either me or andrew to do your bidding? And the last I checked we don't need a unanimous vote to lynch, nor is a deliberate mislynch better than a scum mislynch...

You're going to have to explain this 'do or die' concept you believe that I'm using. I've played with Magua in multiple instances, I generally have a good idea of how his play-style his, his push on CS doesn't fit his good-town meta, that being said I had a town-read on his spot before he filled it. Therefore essentially I'm asking him to pick up his game or I don't need him in here. We don't need a unanimous vote, but with the amount of inactivity in this thread and hesitance of players to vote we need every vote we can get on farside.

Regfan · Post Post #1012 (isolation #24) » Tue Mar 29, 2011 5:58 pm

Disussing the possibilty of Egg being fake and a JK not counter-claiming is idotic, there's no logical reason for a cc not occuring yet if that was the case.

My votes on Magua because I want him to do something instead of lurking and stating his disagreement with a Farside lynch without explaining his reasoning behind it.

Regfan · Post Post #1013 (isolation #25) » Tue Mar 29, 2011 6:00 pm

On a side note, this game seems to be stalling and stagnating again as it seems to have done in the past. So either add new content (Make a case against someone) or put a up vote up, doing neither does nothing to help progress this game and catch the mafia.

Regfan · Post Post #1015 (isolation #26) » Tue Mar 29, 2011 7:34 pm

Yep. This game offically wins the worst players award if there is one. Egg mind responding to why you disagree with:
1) Why you disagree with a farside lynch.
2) Why you suspect me as mafia?
3) What are your reads outside of Farside.

In relation to your 'town-tell' on Archer, I read that as null, that comment would be said regardless of allignment in hope that you would reduce your suspicion on him.

Lets get this game back on the right track please.

Unvote, Vote: Farside

Regfan · Post Post #1017 (isolation #27) » Tue Mar 29, 2011 8:17 pm

How sure I am Looker is mafia? 70%. How sure I am Farside is mafia 99%. I would pick voting Farside over Looker any day of the week, and I was hoping me voting you would at least force you to show some ounce of sense, which you still haven't.

Get this through your head: I thought Conspiracy was scum. I give several reasons for why I thought this. If you find yourself seriously incapable of believing that I thought this, say so.

I still find this extremely hard to believe, I've said so already.

Yes, I've stated I have a strong town-read on Bella already and I think Andrew is town without a doubt, again already stated so.

Now some questions for you Magua:
- Do you think Farside is town? Yes/No - If Yes, state why.
- Who do you think Lookers partner is?

Regfan · Wed Mar 30, 2011 12:42 am

AntB, I did address your question, here's my answer: I was hoping me voting you would at least force you to show some ounce of sense, which you still haven't.
The you was obviously directed towards Magua, and if that isn't clear enough I voted him in an attempt to get him to start doing something or to state his read towards either farside or myself. I don't expect a CC on the JK, re-read my posts I state expecting a CC to the JK is idiotic. Now AntB, your reads?

Regfan · Wed Mar 30, 2011 10:33 pm

@ Magua, it's no secret you're showing a low amount of interest towards this game in comparison with past games but again I really would like your read of Farside and explanation of what gives you that read.

Regfan · Post Post #1031 (isolation #30) » Thu Mar 31, 2011 3:48 pm

@AntB, I stated so because Looker still seems to be under the assumption that it's still possible and doubts Egg which makes zilch sense unless he's JK and withholding counter-claiming. If that's the case he should just do so. Also, if you believe Farsides mafia, then can you vote her please?

@Magua, I'm growing impatient.

Regfan · Post Post #1036 (isolation #31) » Fri Apr 01, 2011 3:31 pm

@ Magua, I've stated this already I thought voting you would be a call to arms and force you to re-read stating your explanation on farside. I do specifically think that - Magua could not believe Conspiracy was scum. I know your town-play is that of high capability and I even you not playing at your best would have seen he was town.

@ Magua, So you believe that without a doubt AntB/Bella are town, is that correct? Because your PoE anaylsis leads you play soley of that belief.

Deadline: April 4, 11:59 PM GMT-6
Deadling is coming around very quickly, we need to start making collective decisions.

Regfan · Post Post #1042 (isolation #32) » Sat Apr 02, 2011 4:45 am

@ Magua, We're still talking because your slot confuses me severely, your actions lead me to beleive you're mafia but I read your predecessors action as strong town.

@ Farside, I believe I've actually stated I don't see you partnered with Archer, also I believe I even outright stated I think your partner is Looker though there's a chance it could also be Magua or AntB.

@ Mod, can you please confirm that the deadline is the 6th of April not the 4th.

Regfan · Post Post #1044 (isolation #33) » Sat Apr 02, 2011 5:08 am

@ Farside, it's highly PoE related. I believe Bella/Andrew are town regardless of your flip and "this post" makes me highly doubt you and Archer being possible partners leaving the players I stated above.

I believe as much as you and Looker seem to be pushing on each other right now you've both also seemed to be looking for possible alternate lynches you could jump on the prevent the others lynch last minute. On top of that yesterday Looker kept his vote away from anyone who had the possibilty of being lynched, the most logical reason I can see for him doing so is that he would have the ability to turn around and hammer CS to save you if needed.

Regfan · Post Post #1047 (isolation #34) » Sat Apr 02, 2011 5:31 am

Yep. Offically the worst person at keeping an alt secret. If it isn't obvious enough the above post is mine.

Regfan · Post Post #1049 (isolation #35) » Sat Apr 02, 2011 8:48 pm

Yes. It would.

We're running near deadline can we get some more activity in this thread please.

Regfan · Post Post #1051 (isolation #36) » Sat Apr 02, 2011 9:19 pm

If Farside and you were both to flip town which I highly doubt then it would have meant that I have misread someone intially, I would have to re-read and redraw my conclusions. With that said, Archer who are your two strongest FoS's and can you attempt to make a case against each.

Regfan · Post Post #1055 (isolation #37) » Sun Apr 03, 2011 6:40 pm

We really need to avoid another deadline rushed lynch. Can we either get:
A) Someone to provide reasoning behind why a Farside lynch isn't the way to go - or
B) More votes on Farside.

Lolcut by Magua. I'm refraining from voting you for the sole reason that my town read on David is something that makes me like to think you're just town playing horrendously as well as the fact I have a much stronger scum read on Farside. I have answered your question - It is specifically "Magua could not believe Conspiracy was scum".

Regfan · Post Post #1061 (isolation #38) » Mon Apr 04, 2011 7:48 am

If she flips scum order of likelyhood of partner goes:
Looker -> Magua -> AntB.

Don't forget to get JK to state who he will be jailing from tommorow onward.

Regfan · Post Post #1069 (isolation #39) » Mon Apr 11, 2011 6:36 pm

Not even close to the flip or death I was expecting. I'm going to re-read in some greater depth in the next few days but from intial look it might be the best time for the doctor to claim now, I'll run the statistics over later tonight.

I really don't see a possible scumteam that doesn't involve Looker, with that said why would Looker kill the biggest suspect apart from him...

Regfan · Mon Apr 11, 2011 10:40 pm

I haven't read Eggs recent posts but I will later tonight after I've had dinner.

I had some spare time on the bus so I'm going to run over the statistics for doctor claiming. In all of the following scenarios doctor will save jailkeeper every night and jailkeeper will follow through with the pre-organised plan. If we lynch mafia today: There would be 4 unclear VT claims. Doc. JK alive. Only three scenario can occur from this, mafia continously no-kill. Mafia continously attempt to kill. Mafia do a mix of the both stated above.

Scenario 1:

In mafia continously attempt to kill:

N3: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT1. N3: Doc dies, VT1 becomes clear. D4: VT2 gets lynched. N4: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT3. N4: Jailkeeper dies. VT3 becomes clear. D5: VT1 (Clear), VT3 (Clear) and VT4 (Unclear) are alive.

Automatic Win.

Scenario 2:

In mafia do a mix of both stated:

N3: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT1. N3: Doc dies, VT1 becomes clear. D4: VT2 gets lynched. N4: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT3. N4: No one dies. D5: VT3 gets lynched. N5: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT4. No kill occurs. D6: Jailkeeper, VT1 (Clear), VT (Unclear) are alive.

Automatic Win.

a
Scenario 3:

In mafia continously no-kill:

N3: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT1. N3: No one dies. D4: VT1 gets lynched. N4: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT2. N3: No one dies. D5: VT2 gets lynched. N5: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT3. N3: No one dies. D6: VT3 gets lynched. N5: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT4. N3: No one dies. D6: Jailkeeper, Doctor, VT4 (Unclear) are alive.

Automatic Win.

Scenario 4:

Us not lynching mafia today:

If we don't lynch mafia today - Then all likelyhood is that the doctor claim dies tonight, putting us in a lylo position tommorow, something we would in regardless if doc claimed or not. On top of that, mafia have a high chance at hitting doctor tommorow night anyway, meaning the cons of doctor claiming are close to nill.

Therefore if the doctor claims today a mafia lynch leads to automatic win. This means mafia will lose the ability to buss each other allowing us multiple more things to hunt for when scumhunting.

I want everyone in their next post to state whether they agree or disagree with the idea of doc claiming due to this occurance and reasoning behind their decision regardless of their choice.

Regfan · Mon Apr 11, 2011 11:09 pm

The claimed doc comes into play by preventing you from wasting a jailblock on the doctor as well as removing any possibilty mafia has of counter claiming doctor later into the game. It will also reduce the current suspect pool allowing us a much better shot at lynching scum today and having more information to work with.

Regfan · Post Post #1085 (isolation #42) » Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:18 pm

Egg wrote:And what is stopping scum from claiming or counterclaiming doc in your plan? Lynching the doc is about the worst thing we could do. If I accidently jail the doc, the only way it really matters is if the scum make a bold enough move to target me.

If mafia counter-claim doctor then we're given a 50/50 opportunity to have an automatic win, the absolute worst case scenario is it ending at a threeway lylo still having a base 33% chance to win.

I understand the basis of FoS's in relation to votes in the past and whether they were on town or mafia, and sure odds might suggest that mafia is likely to vote town players then town players are but everything is situationally based. Nothing can be viewed purely as a number when it comes to that, moreso what needs to be looked into is does the vote seem 'opportunistic' or does it seem geninue. With that said I'm still making my way through a re-read, I still maintain my townread on Andrew and Bella, though I'm unsure how to view AntB and Magua at the current moment.

Regfan · Wed Apr 13, 2011 10:22 pm

I've re-read this thread multiple times in the past few days. My doubts against Magua seem moreso paranoia than anything else. I don't understand any reason why he would make that kill choice and then come into today going after Looker lynch if Looker were his partner. I still don't see any possible partnership that can include Bella or Andrew as mafia, therefore I'll rule out any partnerships that include them. That leaves:

1. Looker - Magua. I don't see this partnership realisticly occuring due to Maguas contiual push for a Looker lynch in a position where bussing leads to almost automatic loss, therefore I'm comfortable ruling this one out.

2. Looker - AntB. Not once throughout this game has AntB had a vote or any real interaction with Looker, the few times he's mentioned him he has stated a slight FoS towads him but never any willingness to vote him. The same can be said vice-versa Looker has paid none, not even once bit of attention towards AntB, and if I'm correct he joined AntB's push against Andrew when they were having their argument. Therefore I see this partnership as most likely.

3. Magua - AntB. Yesterday Magua refrained from going into his reasoning behind his AntB town-reads, I'd still like for him to do that. On top of that he's already attempted to avoid a lynch occuring on AntB today, a position where bussing is suicidal. Again, little to no interaction has occured between this partnership so I can very easily see this being the case.

AntB is the only commonality in the most-likely mafia pairings and I'm entirely comfortable lynching him today.

Vote: AntB. That's L-1, we're not having a lynch until Magua explains his reads in greater depth and a claim occurs

Regfan · Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:03 pm

Magua wrote: AntB claimed D2. Did you not get this in your reread? It figured into Conspiracy's case against farside22 and all.

I did get it in my re-read, however I did forget it in my recent post, my apologies.

Magua wrote: As to my townread on him, it's mostly meta and dumbtelling. He claims VT when run up and did little to dissuade his own lynch. It wasn't a "go ahead and lynch me guys" that you see out of scum who are trying to WIFOM the situation, but the whole "you'll be sorry when I called the whole scumteam" which is what you see out of irate town.

He's doing it again now.

Scum have every motivation to claim doc when being run up, if only to draw the cc. I simply don't believe AntB-as-scum. His play is too sincere, it's too...raw.

That was the intial reason I had a town-read on him, however PoE states that one of my town-reads is incorrect and apart from the situation in which he claimed and his reaction at the time I haven't seen any other continious town-tell from him, whereas I have from my other reads.

Magua - I have a question for you: Realistically, what pairings or mafia teams can you see occuring right now and which do you see as impossible/highly unlikely.?

Regfan · Post Post #1126 (isolation #45) » Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:42 pm

I still believe Doctor claiming and us lynching today is the best way to proceed. I'm going to do some reading into Bella+Looker later but right now I would prefer a Looker lynch over all else.

Regfan · Post Post #1139 (isolation #46) » Mon Apr 25, 2011 5:59 am

First prod I've ever got. Although I think outing targets + doc claiming is better it doesn't seem to be taking off.

Vote: No lynch

Regfan · Post Post #1147 (isolation #47) » Mon May 02, 2011 9:06 am

I need to do some reading into Bella/Looker, but right now I'm very confident in Looker being mafia and am having difficulties seeing Magua being his partner.

Egg, you need to out all of your targets.

Regfan · Post Post #1155 (isolation #48) » Tue May 03, 2011 7:01 am

Egg, attempting to work out the mafia by compiling statistics from previous VCAs is utter stupidity, a vote can only be fully understood by reading it in context and working out if it seems opportunisitc or legitimate. Heck, proof of this is the fact that AntB was on every msylnch and flipped town. On top of that the fact you rule out Looker/Bella team because neither of them was on the CS lynch is incredibly dumb. It's already been proven that D2 involved two town wagons going against each other meaning mafia had no reason to propel either lynch, they could just stand back and let it occur. If anything mafia would be avoiding being seen on the D2 lynch because they know the risk of not being on it is nill.

Bella, can you unvote. The very last way I want to lose is by mafia blitzing and all the time in the game being wasted.

Honestly, I'm not seeing Magua/Bella as a possibilty at all, Magua attempted to push for her lynch throughout yesterday in a position where lynching your partner is a loss. The only possible way I can see Magua as mafia is with Looker however I can see Looker as mafia with both Magua/Bella. At the moment I'm feeling most comfortable with a Looker lynch, though if I had to judge between Bella/Magua I would say that I think Magua is town.

Regfan · Post Post #1161 (isolation #49) » Thu May 05, 2011 4:01 pm

Magua, I'm not putting a vote up on lylo that I can't watch.

Mod, I'll be offically V/LA for 2-3 days in the next hour

Regfan · Post Post #1163 (isolation #50) » Thu May 05, 2011 5:44 pm

If you are certain that Looker is indeed scum then there should be no need to attempt to read Bella or myself today. It would simply be:

1) Lynch Looker.
2) Ask Egg to jail me.
3) If a kill occurs I would be clear to you thus confirming Bella as mafia
4) If no kill occurs I get lynched and you ask Egg to jail Bella.
5) You lynch Bella the next day.

I'm going to request no one votes in the next 3 days, Egg can you explain your read on Looker.

Regfan · Post Post #1170 (isolation #51) » Thu May 05, 2011 8:54 pm

You're fucking kidding me.

I said no one fucking vote

Regfan · Post Post #1188 (isolation #52) » Sat May 07, 2011 6:33 pm

Congratulations Magua and Looker.

I don't even want to look at this game again, Bella and Egg (Whoever you are) I will be avoiding joining games with both of you in the future. I don't think refrainment from voting for a few days until when I can be active is that much to ask.

Also, sorry Farside.