Open 295 -- Island Paradise Mafia -- Game Over

[cjdrum]

Also, on the results of the night phase: the fact that there were no kills makes me think that there are no vigs or SK's (I suppose one-shot vig could exist). I highly doubt the chance of two successful doc-blocks in one night.

Orr... There's the (admittedly extremely likely) possibility of the SK withholding his kill, then saying that there musn't be one because there were no kills.

Orr... There's the other possibility of the Mafia withholding the kill, then saying that there musn't be an SK to... Actually no.

Orr... There's the not-very-likely possibility of Town having no idea, then saying that (even with 50% chance of an SK in the game) there's no SK because.. Actually, I don't see Town doing that.

I'm sorry, but with my previous suspicion of you on top of this, I have to...

vote: ToastyToast

[ToastyToast]

Are you kidding?

@Mod: Do SK have to send in a kill each night?

From my experience, they usually have to do so.

Its what

I think

happened. Excuse the WIFOM, but mafia would not hold off on a kill this early.
Also, with a vig death and a mafia death N0, I am seeing that they killed each other. This only works when paired with tonights results. And vigs do shoot N0, happens all the time.

I'm not saying that there aren't other options, I'm just suggesting what I find the most likely and what I intend to be operating on. Instead of looking for individual scumminess, looking for associations (or lack thereof) will be more helpful.

And you mean the previous suspicion of me voting you? lol, yeah cuz those were great reasons. Where, after that little argument, did you mention suspicions on me?

when there is a case of crap upon more crap against me, I can't help but get frustrated.

jora gets scumpoints for saying its "all over" if I'm lynched, but its no different from his usual play

I can see cjdrum and yabba scum team. cjdrum does not once mention the jackalope wagon. NOT ONCE. Especially when getting close to deadline, you think he would consider it. Looks to me like distancing from a wagon for town credit. Instead he goes after ZF--but no vote!
yabba and cjdrum hardly mention one another. yabba does so only once, when cjdrum says he'll put a vote on ZF. And yet, we never hear a response. And now, instead of coming back and continuing a case on ZF, or giving an answer as to why he didn't put a vote down, he votes me.

[Nobody Special]

Are you kidding?

@Mod: Do SK have to send in a kill each night?

From my experience, they usually have to do so.

I'll just leave this here.

List of possible Role PMs, alphabetically:

Welcome to MS Island Paradise,

playername!

You've been chosen to appear here by virtue of your hardworking attitude and desire to get away from it all. Yes, you've been selected to be a part of an exciting vacation to this beautiful tropical island paradise. After all, everyone needs a little vacation every now and then, right?

You are a

Serial Killer

. Each night, you may send me a PM with the name of a player that you wish to kill. You win when you are the only player still alive.

You also have all of the abilities checked below:

[ ] each kill bypasses single doc protect (but not more)
[ ] bypasses single roleblock attempt each night (but not more)
[ ] survives one kill attempt each night (but not more)
[ ] appears to cops as a townie (Added: Both sanities)
[ ] appears to mafia spy as desired
[ ] one-shot roleblock ability

Please confirm by PM, stating your rolename and your favorite song.

[cjdrum]

Are

you

kidding?


Let me break this up for you.

Are you kidding?

No, I'm not.

@Mod: Do SK have to send in a kill each night?

From my experience, they usually have to do so.

I'll answer with this:

Each night, you

may

send me a PM with the name of a player that you wish to kill. You win when you are the only player still alive

Its what

I think

happened. Excuse the WIFOM, but mafia would not hold off on a kill this early.

Again, answering with a quote (of the post directly before yours):

There's the other possibility of the Mafia withholding the kill, then saying that there musn't be an SK to...

Actually no

.

Also, with a vig death and a mafia death N0, I am seeing that they killed each other. This only works when paired with tonights results. And vigs do shoot N0, happens all the time.

Mafia died via one of Serial Killer or Vig - no guarantees. Vig died via one of Serial Killer and Mafia - no guarantees. I've heard of too many cases where a kill was held off to make it look like the person was not that role. Too many.
Continuing...

I'm not saying that there aren't other options, I'm just suggesting what I find the most likely and what I intend to be operating on.

It was a very hard and fast decision that you made - even if it was only an "opinion". The fact that you chose that opinion as your own is flippin' scummy.

Instead of looking for individual scumminess, looking for associations (or lack thereof) will be more helpful.

Okay. I'm fine with you using this tactic, but... It wasn't relevant here. You practically change the topic to "Haha, find my scumbuddy, losers... Oh wait, you can't"

And you mean the previous suspicion of me voting you?

No.

lol, yeah cuz those were great reasons. Where, after that little argument, did you mention suspicions on me?

here, then here also.

when there is a case of crap upon more crap against me, I can't help but get frustrated.

You mean... D1 or D2? I think that it's better to vote somebody based on many small-ish points that I've found than for somebody who is being voted on because they are.

jora gets scumpoints for saying its "all over" if I'm lynched, but its no different from his usual play

Should I rephrase this?
"Jora is evil, we should look into him - but he's all normal, so..."

I can see cjdrum and yabba scum team. cjdrum does not once mention the jackalope wagon. NOT ONCE. Especially when getting close to deadline, you think he would consider it. Looks to me like distancing from a wagon for town credit. Instead he goes after ZF--but no vote!
yabba and cjdrum hardly mention one another. yabba does so only once, when cjdrum says he'll put a vote on ZF. And yet, we never hear a response. And now, instead of coming back and continuing a case on ZF, or giving an answer as to why he didn't put a vote down, he votes me.

I didn't vote because I wasn't going to be there for deadline - if a few others hadn't been there, we could've lynched a PR simply because "the majority" weren't there to unvote.

[ToastyToast]

Sorry, but once again your responses fail to make any sense to me...
Ok, so SK can withhold a kill. I still think an SK would have gone for it, given his wincon is to be the last one standing.
And so you are saying that mafia wouldn't withold their kill? Isn't that what I was suggesting?
What person had to hold off on a kill to avoid people from thinking he was said role? More likely for an SK to pretend he was vig.
And its not a fast decision to make, its one I've been considering.

And the posts you linked of your suspicions on me are the exact same ones that were involved with the argument. You later unvoted and then said absolutely nothing about me. Then its BAM lets switch to farside, the opponent of the biggest wagon, for "keeping things under control."

And by saying that I'm looking for scumbuddies, I'm suggesting that you can't any associations with me and other players? Thats definitely not true, I have plenty.

The case on me D1 is crap, the case on D2 is non-existant

Your interpretation of my jora quote: thats incorrect. it means "Jora got an additional scum point there, but its not worth a vote"

Jackalope was L-1. It only required one person to lynch if it was necessary. You weren't going to be there so you should have placed your vote down where you thought it should be.

[Jora]

You know, all these posts against me are great and all, but....oh, they don't say anything.

What a town reaction we have here.

I can see cjdrum and yabba scum team.

I don't think so. Actually, good job, guys!

[cjdrum]

What person had to hold off on a kill to avoid people from thinking he was said role? More likely for an SK to pretend he was Vig.

AKA: "SK's not gonna hold off a kill

to pretend to not be SK

, he's more likely to hold off a kill

to pretend to not be SK

and be Vig instead."
Meaning he becomes more Townish rather than neutral - which is my point exactly.

And... Jora? What are you saying? I know there's probably sarcasm in there somewhere, but I don't know which bit(s)

[ToastyToast]

Yet in that case there would have to be a kill first, and he would have to reveal his status as a vig, which has not happened.

[farside22]

I'm not seeing this case on TT, Yaba.
Cj why is hammering scummy? Do you believe in a no lynch?

Jora: Why is TT scummy?

I like this one better.

vote: Sundy

[yabbaguy]

And I am busy. And unmotivated. That is not a scum-tell.

Anti-Town points racked up in excess do eventually equate to scum points. Especially in a game where we're slogging through and with multiple slots that were a complete blank.

Jackalope's town flip just convinces me more that you are the scum in that you led the wagon on him but weren't the primary contributors to his case. A jackalope lynch was easy--transmission lurked and jackalope didn't put up much of a fight. Now you're going after a person with relatively the same activity level. Why? I'm an easy lynch, too. I haven't done much to effect that game and am in a pull of null reads. I would have preferred a lynch of you yesterday, but that wasn't about to happen, and felt that jackalope had the secondmost points against him, but they were largely a result of the pressure forming against him.

(No C in Jakalope.)

You're trying to equate the two. And no, I would not call it a similar activity level, I would call it you making a greater quantity of posts, most of which contributed little-to-nothing or showed very little effort towards helping out. I don't buy it. Especially considering that you BOUGHT the Jakalope case. So is it a matter of "you meanie, you tricked me"?

Also, on the results of the night phase: the fact that there were no kills makes me think that there are no vigs or SK's (I suppose one-shot vig could exist). I highly doubt the chance of two successful doc-blocks in one night.

Docs slash blocks? Could be either.

Suspicions are massively elevating that Jora could be scum as well, though. My mind is actually really aching right now, in particular, wondering if in fact a fluke has occurred and the SK didn't kill/missed deadline/got doc'd/blocked and the Mafia did one of the above as well, suggesting that we have both an SK and Mafia in the game, but I'm content to stick the vote on Toasty. It's all a game of probability as I learned harshly not that long ago, but probability from what I've gleaned suggests that it's probably Toast.

I'm not seeing this case on TT, Yaba.

Did you read it, or are you just yawning and saying "Nah, don't feel it. Meh."? You're driving me up the wall here.

[farside22]

Sorry Yabba. It's hard to leave my #2 scum suspect alone right now.
I get tired of people ignoring me in other games when I feel absolutely certain about things I notice in the game. When I see someone in another game flip scum that I had a scum read on day 1 and no one listens I start to feel jaded and stubborn.
If it makes you feel any better you moved up to null while TT moves down the list again. ZF and Jora comments were also interesting from yesterday. I'm surprised Jora isn't voting him today. That seems odd to me.

[ToastyToast]

If this was merely a game of probability, then we'd be RVS everyday. But it isn't, because the actions of each player change said probability. Sounds like another "if i'm wrong, don't blame me!" post

I voted for jackalope, but would have much rather had you lynched. It wasn't going to happen

My questions were pointless? I was trying to get reactions. They may be pointless from your POV, but for me I was scum-hunting. Passively? yes, but I sure as hell was doing a lot more than the other lurkers. Not to mention that I was the first going against jora and I challenged cjdrum actively.

[farside22]

If this was merely a game of probability, then we'd be RVS everyday. But it isn't, because the actions of each player change said probability. Sounds like another "if i'm wrong, don't blame me!" post

Not always. Most people that read scummy on day 1 and slide by don't change unless they feel pressure and are scum. Just making a point on how someone reacts about a case is just as telling as those who don't.

[havingfitz]

Checking in. Catching up a bit. Not sure why there is so much discussion about an SK More later.

[Sundy]

I disagree with Toasty case, and I don't like the way the bandwagon developed as CJ & Jora hopped right on there. CJ especially seems to be voting becasue of a purported "very hard and fast decision" Toasty made about the presence of a SK, when in fact Toasty was just speculating. Jora... odd post, but as people already said, he looks odd in general. And then there's Yabba, but I'd be more confident following yesterday's case if he didn't say he was sure based on "self-confidence bias."

@Farside, please tell me what your vote is based on. You presented absolutely no reasons in your vote post, and when I looked back over your ISO from Day 1, I'm seeing that you repeatedly bring me up sorta indirectly at the end of the day, and the ONLY justification you ever provide is that I [Sundy] "remind me [Farside] of my own play as scum before."

[DeathRowKitty]

Vote: ToastyToast

Still relatively high confidence. Call it 91.237429384710298346298237409128346201982390740981235612098374098562903874%. If you feel I misrepresented that percentage by a margin of error of +/- .002354721%, lynch me.

Please note that self-confidence bias may be a significant factor in influencing confidence threshold for this vote.

Where do these numbers come from? I mean, I can see from the fact that you constantly have consecutive numbers consecutive in the the string of digits that you keymashed, but why numbers and why did you pick something around 90% as opposed to, oh, say, 95% or 80% or something? (no, I'm not just nitpicking on something meaningless)

My thoughts on the SK discussion:

Spoiler: SK Stuff

We are now safe to assume there is no sk. andrew94 makes sense as either a vig kill or an sk kill (but mostly an sk kill). Not killing makes sense for a vig. It doesn't make sense for an sk. If there is an sk, it has, at a minimum, the ability to bypass one roleblock and one doc protection per night. Stopping an sk kill in c9++ is difficult. Sure, sk could have just decided not to kill, but it's unlikely. Serial killer is difficult to win as. Skipping kills makes it more difficult.

If something later points to there being an sk, then this could all change, but, given the information currently available, we should be assuming no serial killer.

Something tells me I'm going to have to basically completely destroy my reads list...or my playstyle...or both.

As for the fight currently going on, yabba > TT in terms of scumminess.

[yabbaguy]

Whatever about the percentage crap, I meant that in jest. No answer to any question regarding that. As for the SK discussion, I did forget about the fact that there was a multi-kill N0 and then a vig flip, but, and call me crazy if you will, I'm still not entirely sold about being able to dismiss SK as a possibility. Could've been SK and Maf shooting with Vig inhibiting their kill. Does Romanus seem the sort to attempt an N0 vig?

That said, happy to assume no SK. I will concede that statistical likelihood suggests against an SK existing.

Not to mention that I was the first going against jora and I challenged cjdrum actively.

Among not much else, Toast. I mean, you're still here not looking at much else in the game, just lazily fending off my suspicions as if it's supposed to make ME look like scum. So that point sticks.

And then there's Yabba, but I'd be more confident following yesterday's case if he didn't say he was sure based on "self-confidence bias."

Huh?

Where do these numbers come from? I mean, I can see from the fact that you constantly have consecutive numbers consecutive in the the string of digits that you keymashed, but why numbers and why did you pick something around 90% as opposed to, oh, say, 95% or 80% or something? (no, I'm not just nitpicking on something meaningless)

The fact that I'm even >50% sure should be deemed unusual. You know me and my probability sentiments.

---

I realize I'm not getting the most brilliant people here as backers to my wagon, but come on. I've already told you why Jora has Town intent, and I fail to see how cjdrum is even being considered as possible scum. Sundy, I'm looking at you.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.01

ToastyToast - 3 - yabbaguy, }|{opa, cjdrum
Sundy - 1 - farside22
yabbaguy - 1 - ToastyToast

Not Voting: ZeroFang, DeathRowKitty, havingfitz, Sundy

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: May 9.

V/LA: ...

[Jora]

To be gonest, I've voted by inspirational wave that brings me yabba's post. I always liked a provocations and gambits, besides for some reason I like yabba (yeah, I know he maked all he could to make me suspicios of him, but anyways).
I was hoping for a nice reaction from Toast, because you know it's interesting time, no bodies at night, scum wavering, town PR gets their first info and no one knows for sure does SK exists or not. And something tells me that he was frightened when saying this

You know, all these posts against me are great and all, but....oh, they don't say anything.

Imagine you are him, imagine you are scum, what do you see: no NK (well I can believe that SK decided to hold his kill, but what reason is for mafias doing it?), yabba votes him with some scary numbers, me who was reading him as town last day, suddenly changing opinion. I see why he said something like"well you caught me, guys, just claim and I selfvote. .... Could we for the last speculate on night actions?"
On the other hand if he was a town I imagine he'd rather had started to screaming like "OMG, WTF scums are eating my brains!" and wouldn't be discussing night actions with those (cjdrum) who he called a scum.

I need to re-read his 1st day interactions, if i'll find some contradictions with my current feeling about him I'll unvote.

ZeroFang - you're next most closest suspect. Sadly I have only one vote.

[Jora]

Another interestig probability wich i considering as plausible is Mafia annihilated their shot at SK, SK was terrible close to a lynch (ZeroFang?) and decided not to soot, in order to make people look at another direction or simply missed his shot because of being offline (ZeroFang?). Or may be SK was far far away from a noose and decided to conceal himself for some reason (TastyToast? and mafias who hit him is yabba or cjdrum?).

[ToastyToast]

@jora
1)Zerofang wasn't close to a lynch
2)Altough I am tasty (DRK and Zero both know), My name is ToastyToast
3) "for some reason" isn't much of a reason, and, as much as I agree that yabba and cjdrum ping scummy, its awfully convenient to say "all three are scum," when there is an argument between us (taking both sides)

[Jora]

Hmm...
1) Indeed. And this is no good. If you help me to change it, i'll unvote you.
2) Sorry, will not happen again.
3) 2 scums and one SK = three scums. Are you thinking that not all the bad guys are scums but only those who mafias?

[yabbaguy]

Can we agree on terminology here? I think "scum" should be defined as a supercategory of Mafia and SK. Makes the most sense to me.

[ToastyToast]

Hmm...
1) Indeed. And this is no good. If you help me to change it, i'll unvote you.
2) Sorry, will not happen again.
3) 2 scums and one SK = three scums. Are you thinking that not all the bad guys are scums but only those who mafias?

1)Nope
2)No problem
3)No, all bad guys are scum. I'm wondering why you assume that cjdrum and yabba are a scum team who found an SK in me. It seems too convenient that you are essentially agreeing with both sides. You are also narrowing it down to a single option, which is what cjdrum attacked me for. Again, I am of the opinion that there is only a mafia team left, as an SK holding off a kill this early is unlikely and mafia could have been doc/blocked.

[farside22]

Sundy: If you actually read my post you would see my POV on who I believe is town and why. Each explination is there. the rest fall under scum category or null
IE: you, TT and ZF.
Your play is exactly how I expect scum to behave in a game they just lost their scum partner. Asking pointless questions that lead no where. No pushing a case on anyone and withholding opinion till the end of the day to cast a worthless vote.
Jora mentioned some interesting points on ZF that earned my view and Yabba's recent post and view I see more what I expected from day 1.
*note to yabba* see why I got on you day 1. Your better then that blah ness.