Open 295 -- Island Paradise Mafia -- Game Over

[ZeroFang]

I highly doubt an SK would have not sent in a kill, especially this early in the game. There's a million possibilities out there. I personally think it's a waste of time to try and figure out the setup when there's this much conjecture. We know VTXXXXX. It is very possible there's just one scum team who no-killed or got blocked by a doctor/roleblocker and the vig got lucky with his N0 kill. I will believe that until I see otherwise.

My computer basically died recently, so I'm using my sister's laptop. I should be logging on at least once a day, but I'll also be posting my thoughts in short bursts (this computer has less abillity for tabbed browsing).

[ZeroFang]

@yabba: You've mentioned TT several times, but not nearly enough to have a case on him. I'd like an actual case, or at least a more consice list of the scummy things he has done before I'll consider voting with you.

@Toasty I find your case on yabba to be equally non-existant. Little help?

Please and thank you.

[yabbaguy]

The scummy content from Toast is the lack thereof. Simple. ISO and you judge it.

[ZeroFang]

I can accept that, I had ISOed both of you at the time of that post. Sundy is on my scum list for similar reasons.

[farside22]

Hey yabba do you think my view on Sundy is off? If so why? Or are you intent with your TT belief at this point?

[ToastyToast]

@Farside: I know your question is for yabba, but I feel like posting about Sundy. Basically, I feel like we're going after him for reasons similar to Jackalope. in other words, the reasons aren't really accurate. I also don't see who Sundy's scumbuddies would be.

@ZF: Basically,this also my list
In my opinion, yabba has yet to make a good case, and I think he's looking for little things to attack on.

The scummy content from Toast is the lack thereof. Simple. ISO and you judge it.

Which is itself not a great thing to determine scum. Again, remember Jackalope lynch? Same. Exact. Reasons. The difference? I actually popped in from time to time--see if I could get a reaction to questions, but this game was...well, boring, and I was busy.

[farside22]

@TT: If you really believe that, then you are not reading the game. Jak was lynched for not provide anything useful to the game. He comes in as a replacement and only mentions Yabba and said nothing else about any of the players in the game. Sundy is a different story all together as I just mentioned before.

[Sundy]

Sundy: If you actually read my post you would see my POV on who I believe is town and why. Each explination is there. the rest fall under scum category or null
IE: you, TT and ZF.

Your play is exactly how I expect scum to behave in a game they just lost their scum partner. Asking pointless questions that lead no where. No pushing a case on anyone and withholding opinion till the end of the day to cast a worthless vote.

I did "actually" read your post, Farside in fact I read your whole ISO in search of an ACTUAL case so that I could answer any questions you have. But you (and ZF might I add) are using vague arguments that boil down to "I already decided everybody else is town, therefore the next lynch is X."

And it's not like you have one iron-clad POV on who's town and you've therefore decided on your next lynch by process of elimination. In the quoted post, you're saying that TT/ZF & I are scummy or null even though you've recently been defending TT. You actually also said that ZF was off your list recently too. Normally I'd say it's a town sign that you're changing your views on players (if it's based on EVIDENCE or GAME-PLAY), but the process of elimination game doesn't work so well when your reads are mercurial, and you give town-reads on TT/Zero in post #58 RIGHT BEFORE you're now calling scum or null.

You can claim my questions were pointless all you want, but the responses to them helped me develop my reads even though they didn't necessarily lead to me wanting to lynch someone. The statement that I haven't pushed cases is not true. In fact I was the first to vote Fang while you were busy yukking it up with him and saying you wanted to kiss him. And while you seem to have ignored that post, you today praise Jora who "mentioned some interesting points on ZF that earned my [town] view," even though AT THE TIME you derided him for distracting you from your plans to lynch Jakalope.

This might be OMGUS, but I'm starting to get a creepy feeling about you Farside. Maybe the OMGUS is justified because you're pushing a lynch for vague reasons on me, the only person I know is town.

I realize I'm not getting the most brilliant people here as backers to my wagon, but come on. I've already told you why Jora has Town intent, and I fail to see how cjdrum is even being considered as possible scum. Sundy, I'm looking at you.

Great, you told me Jora/CJ have town intent. Guess what-- I don't take your word for it, and I wouldn't trust any players' town read on another player too much without a good reason.

Re-read forthcoming later today or tomorrow. My eye is on the Fang and the Farside, the lurker-turned-active, and Mrs. Experienced. I'm getting a hunch.

[yabbaguy]

Sundy's one of those you just say "ah, yeah, seems Town" and just never bat an eye at. I went through the ISO and couldn't find as great an extent of uselessness from Sundy as I've found from Toasty. Meta-diving might help, but it has almost always fucked up my analysis. Just like every other probability-based tell. (I still can't get over that.) ._.

Again, Toast keeps trying to equate himself to Jakalope lynch, which simply isn't true. Jakalope was a lynch for being a dumb and lurky slot. Toast is actually trying to sound like he's contributing, but the plurality, maybe majority of his posts, just don't appear to actually advance towards scumhunting. I don't need a case; I think it's evident from the ISO.

I know there's a word for constantly wanting to think that someone's scum, but I really think I've got this one.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.02

(unchanged)

ToastyToast - 3 - yabbaguy, }|{opa, cjdrum
Sundy - 1 - farside22
yabbaguy - 1 - ToastyToast

Not Voting: ZeroFang, DeathRowKitty, havingfitz, Sundy

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: May 9.

V/LA: ...

[ToastyToast]

@TT: If you really believe that, then you are not reading the game. Jak was lynched for not provide anything useful to the game. He comes in as a replacement and only mentions Yabba and said nothing else about any of the players in the game. Sundy is a different story all together as I just mentioned before.

Yabba's reasons for wanting me lynch are general uselessness. The reasons we lynched Jak is as you said. Its the same argument.

[ToastyToast]

It may be in a different style, but the central argument is founded on the same point. That not contributing always means scum. The same goes with Sundy, but its more like..."I will say something about my main scumread, but nothing more."

[farside22]

This might be OMGUS, but I'm starting to get a creepy feeling about you Farside. Maybe the OMGUS is justified because you're pushing a lynch for vague reasons on me, the only person I know is town.

Sundy: What do you call vague? Your saying your questioning lead you to ZF who was a replacement of .......bv/morph. How do the questions you asked lead you to ZF?
Also when you mention funny feeling that is more vague then my reasoning

IE: I'm really thrilled with my vote on the hypocritical scum right now.

I'm calling Sundy/TT scum team at this point. I want money if I'm right damn it. I should get paid for this stuff.
Also Sundy if you actually read my Iso then you would have seen this post:

Upon review of everything I have accumulated from this game I believe scum to be part of these four players:

Scum:
Yabba
bv310/morph
Sundry
Star (as I said previously star lurking is null we have a replacement that unvoted and still waiting for more info, hence why they are last on my list)
Leaning middle:
TT (null. I had a gut read that was promising, but the lack of comments has him in the middle)
Everyone else I have a pretty good read on.
Cj (the VI of the game)
fitz (the stubborn mule)
Jora (the BW of day 1)
DKR (can't see her putting herself in a corner with those reads, plus strong performance)

This was the break down for those who didn't want to go thru 50 post in which I explain my reason's further on CJ/Fitz/Jora and DRK. Yabba and TT are the only 2 I have moved today. You however stay under scum list.

[farside22]

@TT: If you really believe that, then you are not reading the game. Jak was lynched for not provide anything useful to the game. He comes in as a replacement and only mentions Yabba and said nothing else about any of the players in the game. Sundy is a different story all together as I just mentioned before.

Yabba's reasons for wanting me lynch are general uselessness. The reasons we lynched Jak is as you said. Its the same argument.

TT: Your question and comment was in regards to Sundy and had nothing to do with you. What does this statement have to do with anything I said in regards to Sundy?

[ToastyToast]

read the post after it. Jack, me, and sundy. All the arguments are the same.

[farside22]

read the post after it. Jack, me, and sundy. All the arguments are the same.

Hun if that is the best you have for saying Sundy isn't scum then your really a sad, sad thing.
The arguments are different on Sundy then Jak and calling them the same case is really inexcusable. I already stated the difference and who is your scum suspect?
Right Yabba (who accused you yesterday: hello Mr. OMGUS) and CJ for voting you and what else? What other reason do you have? Not making a good case, flip/flopping on his vote on me. Most of your reasoning so far reads as OMGUS but you can't accuse Jora of it without looking more scummy.

Fun times

[Jora]

My opinions on TT:
1. He has been сhasing yabba from early on. If yabba is a scum I'd expect he NKed TT rather than trying to lynch him. The reason why I mentioned this is IMO one of them is a scum for sure.
2. I fairly hate how TT designed this post. For some reasons in my games scums always maked a fancy styled reads.
3. Frankly I've failed to find much. But that is common, so my argument is his general play is very appropriate for a scum.
4. Agreed with farside about OMGUS. OMGUS-like reasonings very commonly used by scums.

[ToastyToast]

@Farside: Its obvious that I've suspected yabba from yesterday
cjdrum was already suspicious, my unvote didn't mean I was clearing him as town. It wasn't OMGUS. It was the fact that their arguments fail. sorry, but I still don't see the sundy case. Thats all there is to that one

@jora: 1)That means nothing. He could just as easily NOT kill me to avoid suspision
2) Lol suspicion based on style = bad. I just follow Andrius' "Townier Than Thou" lists.
3) Huh? You can't find anything but those points?
4) You can believe it is OMGUS if you want, but given that, as you said, I ALREADY SUSPECTED YABBA AND DID NOT CONSIDER CJDRUM TOWN.....not really OMGUS.

[havingfitz]

Apologies...Spring break with the family and nothing to say in here ATM has restricted my posting. Will try to get some thoughts posted in the next few days (if not today).

[DeathRowKitty]

Apparently I started writing a post during class yesterday and forgot to finish/post it >_> Posting this now and catching up on the rest of the thread.

Whatever about the percentage crap, I meant that in jest. No answer to any question regarding that. As for the SK discussion, I did forget about the fact that there was a multi-kill N0 and then a vig flip, but, and call me crazy if you will, I'm still not entirely sold about being able to dismiss SK as a possibility. Could've been SK and Maf shooting with Vig inhibiting their kill. Does Romanus seem the sort to attempt an N0 vig?

That said, happy to assume no SK. I will concede that statistical likelihood suggests against an SK existing.

Quoting random percentages may or may not be a scum tell (well, it's definitely a scum tell, but I'm not sure how strong of a tell it is...). It's a way of overjustifying a vote/suspicion (How sure am I? I'm this sure, dammit!). So I expect an answer anyway.

Also, I would be more than happy to oblige calling you crazy. With vig dying night 0 and there suddenly being no kills night 1, versus the two kills night 2, the chances of there being an sk are ridiculously low.

[havingfitz]

Read D2....not seeing anything solid on the Toast cases (especially the }|{opa one).....I've suspected to some degree all the people on the Toast wagon so that supports my doubts on it. I haven't been a big fan, albeit not the most vocally, of cj and after reading D2 I just get a scummy feeling from her.

VOTE: cjdrum

[DeathRowKitty]

Vote: cjdrum

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.03

ToastyToast - 3 - yabbaguy, }|{opa, cjdrum
cjdrum - 2 - havingfitz, DeathRowKitty
Sundy - 1 - farside22
yabbaguy - 1 - ToastyToast

Not Voting: ZeroFang, Sundy

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: May 9.

V/LA: ...

[ToastyToast]

Fine with me

Unvote:Vote:cjdrum.

[cjdrum]

Vote: cjdrum

Bandwagon much?

Fine with me

Unvote:Vote:cjdrum.

Bandwagon OMGUS much?

Also, havingfitz: Can you give some solid points yourself, please? If you simply vote me and let two others blatantly follow your bandwagon, I have nothing to defend against.
Anything in particular that I can respond to, please?