Open 302: JUNGLE REPUB nope game over! Party time!

[MagnaofIllusion]

2911

I especially appreciate any Mafia game that begins with flavor text about stoned pixies and game playing Unicorns being bombed and inflicted with radiation poisoning.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok so I’m bored waiting for the confirmations so I’m going to provide some friendly advice to the Seer –

If you run across the situation where someone fake-claims Seer do

NOT

counter-claim immediately unless you have a confirmed guilty read to go along with it or we are in a LYLO situation.

1. If said fake-claimer is an Evil Sheep they will be killed at Night.
2. If said fake-claimer is a Wolf and live through the Night you can choose to counter-claim the next day if you get a guilty result that Night.
3. If said fake-claimer is Town they get need to be stoned to death and will be killed at Night anyway.

Vanilla Town should

NEVER

fake-claim Seer to survive. Do so and receive an internet wedgie.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I think it would also be a good idea for the seer to counterclaim if it is the day before LyLo as well. Am I wrong?

I haven't mulled over specifics but probably even if it was all 'Not Werewolf' results. That said there is some level of difficulty in determining exactly when said day is since there are two discrete anti-Town factions.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD

- you might want to be on the look-out for a possible replacement for toffee. His / her one post on site was the sign-up for this game on April 9th.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Someone's eager to lay down a vote before the Mod officially starts the game ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yeah I think I've got it now Caboose. I just made the mistake not looking this up. Like I didn't realize that nobody has a kill either!

Read the role PMs again carefully and clearly.

The Werewolves have Night Kill.
The Evil Sheep do not.

You've been on site for almost 8 months now. Your newb-pass has expired.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This game will begin when all players have confirmed

. To confirm, please post the code in your role PM in this thread. NOTE: codes are random and have no relation to role or alignment.

Caboose the bolded portion of the Mod's statements is relevant to this discussion.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Your point?

I had one.

--

first thing I'd do as mafia would be to get the knowledge of my own faction wrong

So you think the best move for Neil (8 months on MS) in an Open game is to specifically pretend he doesn’t understand the roles as a Gambit. When the result is you immediately jumping on him that exact thing.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I never said it would be the best thing to do, but it sure would be what I'd do

1. Do you have sufficent reason to think (meta-wise) that neil’s thought processes closely mirror your own?
2. Thank you for giving me a reason to lynch you if I ever see you make a mistake on ‘facts’ about an open game set-up in regards to the Mafia faction(s).

--

@MoI - And what was it?

To get a reaction to help me form an opinion on his alignment. What other reason would you suspect?

--

Is it 1 o’clock yet?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I think Empking would be a great candidate to test whether Sheep may fly ...

VOTE: Empking

[MagnaofIllusion]

Um it's probably a little late ... we'll see how kind our Mod AKA The Devil is ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Deity, cjdrum, caboose and Regfan

– Come join the party!!!!

--

Do you suspect Twistedspoon at all?

At this point? No. I have limited experience with Twisted but it does give me a general feel for his play. Nothing I see so far out of the ordinary with Town Twisted.

--

I hate you all for making me come back to a topic with 52 posts in it already.

No problem. I can’t wait to see your reaction when actual game content in Wall form starts appearing.

--

Neil, do you find votes like that scummy? Were you aware that you're wagoning?

What’s the scum hunting purpose in this question? Niel explicitly said that pushing (aka pressuring) Empking might produce more content. He was fully aware he was wagoning.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ahem... Neil

That was a typo I missed. My mistake.

That said if you are going to get bent out of shape with having your name spelled wrong on occasion here on MS you are probably in for lots of frustration.

*sigh*. I have not talked about on-going games. I simply mentioned I was IN on-going games. There is no rule where saying that you are participating in other games.

I’m not the Mod but I’ll answer – referencing any ongoing game of any sorts including mentioning who you are playing with are forbidden site-wide.

--

Everyone: What alignment is of afraid 1 (one) vote that they wagon the largest wagon and try and discredit the person voting them?

1. Can you demonstrate with quotes where Neil shows ‘fear’ of your vote?
2. Are you attempting to say that his posting of your style of play is discrediting? I find it a rather accurate portrayal of your playstyle. He doesn’t say it makes you scum, BTW. He said that pressuring you to provide more than unsupported votes and throw-away one liners is a good plan. And it seems to be working.
3. Please identify what you case on Neil is.

Ah, the well known fact that scum are always honest about their intent Could you get any scummier?

So he can’t be possibly telling the truth because you call him scum? Scumtastic thought process there.

[MagnaofIllusion]

1. His vote and his discrediting of me have only one motive I can think of.

Well perhaps you need to work on thinking harder.

See I can throw pointless barbed statements out just like you. I try to refrain from doing it since it isn't Pro-Town behavior.

2. When did I ever said it wasn't the truth? If I started saying "Don't listen to Magna he has an 80% scum win rate and has very low town rate" would you just say "That's not discrediting that'sd the truth!"

So you are admitting that Neil’s analysis of your playstyle is accurate. Good. Explain again how that discredits you. Are you saying that your playstyle is inherently scummy?

If you were to say something like that I’d simply ask you to back up your statement with reasons including how it has any bearing on the role PM I received and how my Town win rate is very low.

2b. "He doesn’t say it makes you scum, BTW." This is an absurd misrepresentation of the point.

No, it’s not. He clearly stated that pressuring you to provide more in-depth content was his goal. Nice attempt to deflect with Wiki-tells, BTW.

3. His posting comes from a scum mindset and only a scum mindset. Plus there's your post I'm quoting that maskes you look like buddies.

1. Unless you can back up with specific quotes on your assertion you are just throwing around rhetoric.
2. Oh so now we are buddies. I’ll challenge you to provide the solid scum motivation for either sets of scum (2 Werewolfs or 3 Evil Sheep) to vote together and work together so obviously on Page 3. This is just more smearing from you. Noted.

So are you just wasting my time or are you saying we should we just take everyone's word as fact?

So I’m free to assume you are lying about everything you are saying since scum lie? Ok, just wanted to know the standard you are working with.

This is the sort of broad based statement that is completely invalid. Of course scum are going to lie. The goal of Mafia (you know the game we are playing) is to assess whether certain individuals a lying based on other contextual clues and logic. All you are doing is suffering from Confirmation Bias – “I know he’s scum so he’s obviously lying”.

Curious coincidence that your posting is a mixture of defending neil and attacking neil's attacker. Wierd.

Very typical soft attack. I notice you go out of your way to avoid directly saying I am scummy. Instead you use loaded words like ‘curious’ and ‘weird’.

Unwilling to commit to outright saying I am scum with him?

Also you seem to be saying that I only have interest in you due to this exchange. Given I was the first vote (and a serious one at that) for you that’s hardly the case.

I like where my vote is at.

[MagnaofIllusion]

What bull. I can see why MOI has such a high scum win rate. Pretty clever plan of you two.

See and it is things like this that make me happy about my vote.

You've directly seen me work as scum. LMP's Mini Normal game not that long ago. Where you saw me do exactly the opposite of what you are accusing me of here.

In that game I distanced from Xdaa (my known partner) and more or less ignored DGB (who I suspected was the traitor but couldn't be sure).

Yet you are ignoring that game to spin some sort of obv-buddying partnership angle here.

If anything I'd be open to the possibility that you and Neil are hard distancing each other (he's only voting you to pressure you to perform and you are more than happy to suddenly switch to me even though you've stated he can only be posting from a scum perspective) and you are trying to tie me to him in the case he eventually flips.

I'll mark that down in my notes. Good effort if that is actually the case.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’d really appreciate if someone other than Empking and Neil could post and give their thoughts. Anyone …. Anyone … Bueller?

--

if this game had only one scum faction I'd be tempted to say one of neil/empking/magna has to be scum after these interactions

however it's more complicated since there's 2

hmmm

The two factions changes the game in only one realistic way –

All scum factions have reason to actively and accurately scum-hunt. Especially the Evil Sheep since they don’t have a Nightkill and can be picked off by the Werewolves.

--

@Empking re 74

– Nice to see you went to the trouble to snip from my post only the portion that relates to you and Neil power distancing and you attempting to link him to me. Since you normally just quote en-masse I’ll assume that my theory might have a some legs.

MOI: Does neil have to post everything he thinks or is he avoiding the question? (Watch how he either refuses to answer the question or makes it ridiculously non-commital.)

If he wants to effectively scum-hunt in a Pro-Town manner he should be posting his thoughts. I’m not sure what the second part of your question refers to. It looks like you just tacked it on to create a false dilemma situation. Care to elaborate?

Also noted is the pre-emptive assertion you added in quotes. There you are effectively arguing my response is scummy before you have ever seen it. Scumtastic work. Town has no reason to pre-suppose what any response will look like. Scum, on the other hand, want to frame the discussion in a manner that best suits their agenda.

[MagnaofIllusion]

My hypothesis was that you were scum. I had an experiment to test that. I made my prediction of what my experiment would yield public so that when my prediction came true it would carry more weight. Please explain why that is scummy?

I’ve clearly explained why it is scummy – if you were honestly scum-hunting you would have no interest in staging a reaction to the response that has yet to happen. It’s not rocket science. Scum are the only alignment that have an reason to 'pre-argue' anything.

Ok, I asked "Why did you say X?" He "answer" was "X is true because Y". This means that either
1. He has to say everything which is true OR 2. He refused to answer the question.
I then asked you which one you thought it was? And you refused to answer?

Your questions frankly make no sense and have not context. I guess I am going to not be answering when you’ve created something that is not understandable as formed.

Too many [expletive] scum!

Oh how quaint … you are resorting to AtE the same Wiki-tell you’ve been throwing around as scummy. Nice.

MOI's vote on me was random?

Nope. 100% real for your immediate vote on Neil for reasons that I already outlined was horrible in my pre-game discussion with Twistedspoon.

--

@Diety re 99

– So you are happy voting for Empking simply because he has votes but haven’t bothered to actually read?

Scumtastic.

Each post after that gets worse and worse? Never played a Town player?

How were you ‘confronting or questioning” Empking with your vote at 99?

Consider yourself sloted firmly in scum at this point.

--

@HezLucky

– so nothing to say at all regarding the entire pages of Empking versus Neil posting?

--

How can you call someone down for a soft-attack after what you said to me in the pre-game?

Quite easily. Empking’s soft attacks came in the midst of me questioning him and pointing out his logical failures. You I was purely reaction fishing. Context is everything.

--

Now, I know it's page 6, but I haven't really posted yet... What do we think of the MafiaSheep? It's not like they can kill us... But it's hard to differentiate between Werewolf-tell and Mafia-tell. I think we should only kill Mafia if we don't have a Werewolf in hand.

Um, whut? I don’t even ….

--

1.) He expressed interest in a neil RVS bandwagon in the pre-game, but when the game began he random voted HezLucky instead.

So let me get your logic straight here …

1. Twisted in pre-game expressed a desire to RVS neil for his fake-post about not understanding certain Mafia aspects.
2. You and I explained to him that was a bad tactic for scum to take pre-game
3. Twisted eventually grudgingly agrees.
4. Twisted votes someone else RVS when the game opens.
5. You vote him for it.

That’s what you are basing your point 1 on?

Also

Wicked

– why do think of Empking’s vote for Neil given that it ostensibly had the same reason as Twisted’s early suspicion (see post 28 for context)?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I think

the latter days of this

were the scum team defending one another: viewtopic.php?f=23&t=15577

I’ve bolded the portion that shows where you specifically undermine your own argument. Have any where it happened right out of RVS on page 4 of a Mini / other game with less than 14 players?

--

Any particular reason why you didn't ask Sloth or zMuffinMan this question?

Yes, because I need more information directly from Hez to help form a read on his alignment. I don’t at this point feel the need to get that same bit of information from the others.

Also, Magna, what do you think of cjdrum?

If you didn’t pick up on my comment to Cj above I think he’s probably VI-Town. I’ll see more as we go on but I can’t see Cj as either Evil Sheep or Werewolf saying what he said. Of course more input will help refine my feeling or make me move him into Stupid Scum (likely Evil Sheep) category.

He doesn't say in either of these posts that he isn't going to vote Neil for an RVS wagon. He also doesn't give any reason for changing his mind when he random votes either.

I’ll disagree. Although he doesn’t explicitly say he agrees the manner in which he backed off gradually said to me he thought it wasn’t worth pursuing.

The question to you – you agree that suspecting Neil on that basis was not good as it was a bad scum-tell. Or at least I thought you did. We tell Twisted this. When the game starts he doesn’t RVS Neil on that basis. You find that scummy?

I don't think Empking ever gave the reason for his original vote. If he did, can you quote it please? If that was why he voted Neil, I don't find it suspicious.

His only ‘explanation’ to date is post 28 where he says “Remind me to vote Neil”. In context that was right after the “Neil is scum for faking lack on knowledge” conversation started.

If you don’t find his vote on Neil suspect for reasons that are clearly no scum-tells you and I definitely aren’t going to see eye to eye on this issue.

@Wicked

– What do

you

think of CJ?

--

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOI: 1. Why is pretending to answer a question while in fact refusing to answer a question not a scum tell?
2. Why is interacting with another player

exactly

as scumbuddies would interact not a scum tell? (Also we know this isn't confirmation bias because I made my prediction of what would happen before MOI responded.)

Empking - Why is asking loaded, leading, or completely incomprehensible questions supposed to be scum-hunting?

Oh the second part is rich. You say I am interacting EXACTLY with Neil as scum-buddies would. Yet you can't find cases to support that's actually how it works. And you tried to 'handwave' away the evidence I provided from LMP's game regarding how I deal with buddies.

Yes, you are still scum. Happy with my vote.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'll ask you straight up. Why would scum choose to play to their scum meta?

Because that's how meta works. It is effective. It certainly fooled you easily then. Why exactly would I depart from a winning strategy? DERP

Then you answer the following - why would scum choose to play as blatantly as you have claimed?

Answer - they wouldn't.

But don't let common sense get in the way of your scum agenda.

Which one are you? Evil Sheep or Werewolf?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey, MOI I think I asked you some reasonable questions. Mind answering them k thanx

Nope. You are scum. Not bothering to waste my time answering fluff. Feel free to try and claim I'm scum for that.

Because when people meta you, they'll be able to point out that you're playing to your scum meta.

1. It allows you to lead the town and protect your buddy.
2. The meta doesn't punish you for doing it for reason 1.

Which bit don't you agree with?

Lulz. So players don't play to a scum meta because they will be called out for it. But they do play EXACTLY as you claim scum would so they can be called out on it. But at the same time they can effectively lead Town despite being obv-scum.

Keep scumming it up Emp.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh forgot to add from the Empking playbooks -

Empking is scum for not answering my question (specifically about which scum he is). No matter how stupid the question is if you don't answer it you are scum...

Ok, I'm going to stop being over the top with Emp. VIs tend to pull this reaction from me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Everybody: I want you to look at the second quote in MOI's post and then look at my actual post. He took at the quote I was responding to in order to change my point completely.

(My point was about why he'd opaquely defend and work with neil. He tried to pretend it was about him refusing to take concrete stances about neil's individuals actions (AKA exactly how scum would act.)

MOI: Why would town misquote somebody like that?

Removing my original quotes is hardly 'misquoting' you. Quote pyramiding is pointless waste of space.

I was responding to your two points at once. Where you are taking contradictory stances. And explaining exactly who they are contradictory.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Essentially you took out a paragraph to make two points about two different things (meta VS defending scum buddies0 look lioke one thing.

The only content removed from your quote was 100% my words. Again, you consider them two different points. I don't.

Playing to your meta is punished by the current meta. Defending your scumbuddy isn't. Therefore you won't do one but will do the other. What's contradictory about those two stances?

1. No playing to your meta is not punished. Proof please?
2. Your argument is that I'm defending my buddy because it would be effective due to my meta. Yet you call it behavior that is obviously how buddies behave and say we are scum together. If you are so easily calling it obv-scum behavior how is it effective? That's directly contradictory.

Furthermore you haven't been able to satisfy that defending Neil is either -

A. Something that buddies due immediately Day 1 (you keep blowing this off and pretending its fact when you aren't providing clear examples)
B. That I'm even defending Neil. Pro-Tip - calling your craptastic play craptastic is just that.

Again - I'm going to stop responding to your continual spam. You don't provide substance to your statements.

You are using the Fate style of play - continually repeating stuff over and over and hoping that posting more than everyone else will make your bad arguments acceptable.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Scum getting attacked early doesn't happen early. Two men scum teams don't happen that often. I read very slowly. But this was thethird game I looked at and Hoopla in this game defended Haylen from a random vote.

So notice he is now placing lots of qualifies. But let's examine.

1. He says "Two men scum teams don't happend often". Ummm, how does he call us Werewolves partners and not Evil Sheep partners? Perhaps because he knows we aren't part of the Three Man scum team? Yup.
2. His third game he reference began over a year ago (March 2010). Why is that his THIRD stop? Wouldn't a quick glance through recent ended games have been quicker than finding a year old thread?

Confirm Vote - Empking

[MagnaofIllusion]

EBWOP - Err that should say "he is now placing lots of

qualfiers

".

[MagnaofIllusion]

What are you saying here? That in ten minutes I looked at all the games in the last year, found that one and then pretended it was my third?

You claimed it was your third game examined as you said RIGHT HERE –

Scum getting attacked early doesn't happen early. Two men scum teams don't happen that often. I read very slowly. But this was

thethird game I looked at

and Hoopla in this game defended Haylen from a random vote.

I’ve bolded where you directly claim it was the third game you looked at.

That you don’t seem to know what you are saying moment to moment is astonishing. Somehow you want to make me look like I’m making up things to smear you when in reality that is exactly what you said.

How is that the third game you looked at? Please explain how you magically were drawn to that game which isn't in the first three in the Closed file was the third one you chose to review.

Then explain how a Lovers game - where immediate death for both partners happens when one is lynched - is a good comparison to this game.

No I know you're werewolves because the opaque defending suggests that. Plus the timid way TS and KD are playing suggests they're Mafia and all four of you can't be mafia.

Thank you for more or less ruling out Twisted or KD ( I assume you meant Diety and just mixed the letters up) as likely partners.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yes and you think I'm scummy for that. What do you think I did? That in ten minutes I looked at all the games in the last year, found that one and then pretended it was my third?

Dodge dodge dodge. Once again you don’t answer the question about how that game was the third one you looked at. Anyone with sense can see where it is in the Closed game list. No-where near the top.

Yet you keep trying to deflect by saying “Did I lie about it”.

Weren't you the one just banging the drum that not answering questions is a scum-tell?

Dodge dodge dodge. Because you can’t answer why you chose that game in any manner that makes sense.

Or why more recent closed games don’t show it. Where are the MANY other cases that you have been saying are obvious scum play?

Because losing a werewolf day one is pretty much the death knell for werewolves in this game. Just like in that game!

This is self-evident stretching to justify your bad tactical choice.

[MagnaofIllusion]

1. Why do you want to know that?
2. I looked at the two recent games and noticed that the person attacked was always town. I then thought to myself: What open game has a large porportion of scum? And then decided to search for Lover*

1. Because it shows your motivations.
2. Aha, the light is shed. You looked at recent games and found they didn’t support your premise. So you went to the one game style where linked Mafians have an overwhelming motive to defend themselves … because they automatically die when one is lynched.

And now I think you are lying about the whole thing. I just ran a search of Central Park using Lover* as the criteria and only looked for Titles. 214 isn’t the first game that appears on that search … the more recently run 267 is.

Summary – I think you actively hunted a game that bears no resemblance to this game to prop up your argument that is clearly bad. And when called on it have made up some garbled explanation.

Oh so you do think I'm lying? I read every game in the last year in no more than ten minutes?

Of course not. I just explained exactly what you did.

Mind providing some evidence of that?

Evidence that your theory of Partner defending in the first 4 pages is complete crap? I’ve got all I need in your inability to provide evidence to support your position. You had the burden of proof and you’ve failed.

I'm done as I think it is pretty clear that you are scum who overreacted to early pressure and have continued to dig your hole deeper and deeper. I've let you suck me in again. VIs drive me nuts.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Are you seriously suggesting that

dishonestly

trying to get another player lynched is a town tell?

No significant time now.

I'll address the many flailing points of Empking sometime in the next day or so. But I wanted to quickly say the following -

The bolded pisses me off to no end and I'm not going to let you fucking keep repeating it.

I removed my own text from those quotes. Nothing you said was altered in any way.

Yet you keep repeating that I'm DISHONEST for doing so. Hoping that a scumtastic Appeal to Repetition will make people forget after time that your point wasn't valid for the get-go.

Empking's play is classic Fate-scum style right here - keep repeating things over and over and keep asking people to justify the same points that have been already clearly made.

He needs to hang.

I'll put together a consice case in my next post.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok … I’m not making a Empking official case. At least right now. After reviewing my thoughts and the thread I think his play speaks for itself.

DK is 100% VI. A review of his posting leaves no doubt about this. Whether he is incompetent Sheep or Evil Sheep or Werewolf remains to be seen. I will not object to a lynch of him if we can’t find another scummy target but feel it is more policy than anything else.

I want Empking hung. I’m fairly confident he’s very likely Evil Sheep based on the resistance I’m seeing on multiple fronts to moving him beyond L-2. That said I’m also considering the following three players –

Neil

– Having read a sufficent amount of his posts after the game started I’m not believing his “Ooops, didn’t know about the set-up” pre-game persona. He’s clearly capable of complex discourse and responses. That clearly doesn’t jibe with what was presented pre-game.

Twisted

– playing inconsistent with his Town play from my direct experience.

Wicked

– First vote was Empking wanting to ‘bandwagon’. He immediately jumps off the wagon the second Empking starts posting his special brand of insanity and votes Twisted for what I find suspect reasons. He then continues to spar with Empking but makes no move towards pressuring him via vote. My guts says Empking partner. Has experience with the Set-up and distancing from Partners (Actor Theme Mafia).

@Caboose, CJDrum, Hez, and Sloth

– You need to post at least two possible scum suspects beyond who has your vote in your next post please!

--

You misquote people to shorten your post? Surely it'd be shorter to not do a quote to begin with?

Once again – the only thing I removed WAS MY OWN WORDS. Absolutely nothing was removed that you said. I can’t misquote you if I only removed words YOU DIDN’T SAY.

--

er...

Where did I say I think Empking is scummy? I think his case is bad because it's based on pedantry and misinterpretation. I think he's losing an argument against stronger players. I don't think that necessarily makes him scum.

So do you find him scummy or do you have a Town read on him? I’d like some clarity on this issue.

--

to side with my gut I'd be voting kabuto or neil; both of who's flip I would be extremely interested in

VOTE: kabuto

I guess I'll have to justify this soon. Gut probably doesn't suffice alone, 11 pages in. You deserve more from me, I'll admit

Soon means now. Your input this game is unacceptable.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I don't know what to say? It's your opinion.. I really didn't know. I wasn't playing ignorant.

I'm really not asking you to say anything. You are correct - its a gut feeling I have in seeing that disconnect. You can't really defend against it. I'm just giving me reads and thoughts out for review.

--

Would you agree that I said everything in this post?

Stop asking questions that have already been answered. Dear god if you aren't scum you are really bad at this game.

I gave my thoughts when

I ORIGINALLY RESPONDED

. You've been on some Sherp-Led-Trip-Up-The-Mountain path focusing on me removing my own words as opposed to actually looking at what was said. Go read my response. And then hang.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Caboose’s catchup post at 286 is horrible.

--

I think empking is less likely to be scum than kabuto right now :/

You know what all the cool kidz are doing? Giving reasons!

--

??? It seems odd that you would say he is pretty clearly scum, but at the same time a VI. What makes you think that Empking is a VI in this game?

I don’t see your confusion.

The VI label has nothing to do with alignment. You don’t have to be Town to be over-all incompetent.

--

If you don't mind, can you elaborate. I'm reading his play as over overzealous and paranoid town rather than anything else.

Why are you so sure he's scum? Could you try making a short concise post with the reasons you think he's scum? There's no need to quote everything he's ever done, just give me a synopsis. I understand you think he's bad, but why do you think his bad play is scummy?

Quick Summary on why I think Empking is scum (and likely Evil Sheep)

–

His reaction to pressure is suspect. He immediately tries to frame the (and this is conjecture but I think it holds water) weakest player on his early bandwagon as scum (Neil).

His scum-hunting consists of mostly applying, in a generally inaccurate manner, Wiktells (AtE, Misrep, Strawman) to those who apply pressure to him. He doesn’t look at all outside those who have found him to be scummy. Even paranoid Town is going to find suspects aside from those not pressing them.

His playstyle in regards to defense is classic Fate-style scum (yes, to some degree a meta argument) – drown the thread in posts, continually repeat questions about the same issue after they have been answered, and generally attempt to demonize those who attack you.

Focused strongly on semantics and wordplay as opposed to scum-motivation for play.

Slip regarding ‘2 scum’ when discussing why I must be a Werewolf.

General meta gut based on games where I have observed Empking as Town.

That’s the quick summary. I can address individual issue as necessary.

--

HezLucky is scum, his large post. That is really Anti-Town, he is against quite a few people (suspects), and

there can't be that many scum

. I want him lynched as well as Empking.

I’ve bolded the portion that shows DK is 100% certified VI. Clearly in a game with 5 scum suspecting many people isn’t a bad thing.

If come deadline a compromise lynch on DK forms I will join it. His play is so bad I can’t fathom being certain whether it is coming from Town or either Faction.

--

#8 MagnaofIllusion - almost as if he's telling the Seer what to do so that he can adjust his scum strategy
appropriately.

Elaborate. I’d like you to explain what possible strategy as scum I could have that would warrant giving good advice to the Seer.

Magna #146 / Wicked #147 - Given my slight suspicion of Sloth (not mentioned here) and stronger suspicion of MuffinMan,
if I were in Magna's shoes i would definitely have asked them something as well. Maybe Magna is not paying attention
to one of his buddies on purpose?

Hmmm … so the scum-tell here is that I’m not Hez. Noted.

Magna #169 - the second point. "Why is it his THIRD stop through a random game?" Give me a fucking break. That's not
evidence. These last few pages have made you look awful.

Funny. I think at this point you are just looking for things you think you can pass off as scum-tells.

Clearly the whole debate about his method of game selection showed that

1. He wasn’t honestly hunting but trying to find any game he could, even if it doesn’t make an apples to apples comparison.
2. He presented said game as his third in a contrived manner to boost his position, which failed when he was required to disclose why he looked at that game 3rd.

--

Pretty much everyone has had a run-in with Empking, so I'd say (currently) the people who haven't, or haven't very much are probably scum-worthy.

Ok … I want you to commit to who these players are. Give me two names who have interacted with him the least.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Secondly, I have beren at L-2 for yonks. That seems to illustrate that there are a lot of scum on my wagon (so many that the remaining scum(s) don't want to be the ones to put me on L-1). So its only logical that my main suspects would be the individuals on my wagon.

Actually quite the opposite. You hanging at L-2 means that there is very likely a subset of players (and under my theory 2 since I think you are Evil Sheep) who do not want you lynched. That explains, to my mind, the difficultly in moving you farther up the list.

So he's free to feel that OMGUSing isn't a scum-telll when he does it but is clearly indicative of scum when he claims Neil did it. Inconsistently applied standards? You are soaking in it!

This post also seems to have mistaken me for Fate (where else would the meta come into it?). I find this unlikely.

If you had reading comprehension skills beyond that of the average fallen log you would understand that I am ascribing a scummy style of defense (made unfortunately famous by Fate) to your play.

[MagnaofIllusion]

You're using the fact that I'm mainly looking at the people on my bandwagon as a reason I'm scum. You're ignoring the fact that as town my wagon is populated by scum because you're calling me scum. On this point your reasoning for thinking I'm scum is because I'm scum. Its not a serious worthy point.

It’s just one factor. I’m not ‘ignoring the fact that you are Town’ because it isn’t a fact. Ask each player here and 100% will tell you they are Town.

Your play reads as scummy. Your premise here is that your wagon is ‘filled with scum’. There are 5 players on that wagon. Unless 100% of scum are on your wagon that means at least one scum isn’t there, if not more. I'll not even get into the ludicrous thought process whereby significant amounts of 'scum' in the game conspire to wagon you. Yet you haven’t looked outside that group that ‘suspects’ to find scum. Your thought process is not Town, IMO.

When did I call neiel scum for performing the act known as OMGUS?

Everyone: What alignment is of afraid 1 (one) vote that they wagon the largest wagon and try and discredit the person voting them?

From beginning of the game. You are clearly inferring that Neil is scummy for jumping on your wagon based on your sole vote. That’s OMGUS. You just avoided actually using the direct phrase.

So how is it a meta point, again?

It’s a general meta point about a particular site popular reaction of scum to pressure.

This is a perfect example of why I think he’s scum. He’s not even bothering to say my assertions about his play aren’t accurate. Instead he first tries to deflect by saying “He mistook me for Fate” and then wants to quibble about whether it is meta or not.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Waiting on responses from Muffin, Reg (knowing he's V/LA) and CJ now.

Continuing to joust with Empking when I've made my thoughts know is Anti-Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This is complete scummy bull. You were saying that I checked 100s of games in 10 minutes and that I was lying about checking only three. Surely you'd be eager to take the chance to prove that I was lying about only checking three games in my 10 minutes (By doing it in a significantly quicker time?)

Your point would be downright disproved if it took you along time.

For the record note how Empking absolutely focuses on anything but the points about his 'search' that matter.

1. That he cherry picked a Lovers game (which has clearly a completely different dynamic than normal Mafia games).
2. That he first evaded explaining how he arrived at his 'evidence' until I forced him to.
3. That 1 game doesn't demonstrate his original theory - that scum teammates often strongly defend each other very early Day 1.

In summary - do the right thing - Hang Empking!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Am I? I thought you were in agreement with him on that point. See that's the problem when you dredge up old posts.

And I never said that you checked 100s of games anyway. I said you were scum who tried to slide a cherry-picked game off as if you found it in the logical course of a search.

Empking - Never one to let the facts get in the way of his assertions!

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD – I’ll be V/LA for my normal weekend family duties til Monday morning.

--

Also, he has a point in saying that (supposing he is town) his wagon is most likely populated by scum. If he's town, the chances of him getting to L-2 just from townie votes is pretty low.

No-one is saying there aren’t possible a scum or two on his wagon currently. I disagree completely that it must be populated by scum. I'd wager that more Town are there than scum.

--

@ALL PLAYERS NOT EMPKING –

I want you do to a little thought exercise involving Empking. He’s been at L-2 for a significant amount of time (since April 29th, so a full week). Here is his current wagon (per Mod’s last VC. I don’t think anyone has moved off since Wednesday which is when we had this list)

Empking (5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto, cjdrum, HezLucky

I want you to consider the following scenario –

If Empking is Town he’s been at L-2 for seven days. I think it is safe to say by his play if he was Town scum would have moved to at least put him at L-1 or finish his lynch. Both scum factions have it in their interest to lynch those who aren’t them. Empking’s play hasn’t been of a standard where anyone is likely to feel they will come under fire for pushing him to hang.

If you disagree with the above we can discuss but I would like you to consider the following.

If Empking is Town then there MUST be a significant amount of the 5 scum on his wagon. At least 4. Otherwise the push to lynch him from both scum factions would have come by now.

Do you believe that at least 4 of the 5 players on that wagon are Scum? Furthermore do you think it likely that a significant portion of the scum would pile together on one wagon of a Townie in getting him to L-2?

If Empking is scum then the stalling of his wagon at L-2 makes more logical sense. The number of players who actively would want to hang him immediately drops from 5 to at most 3 (and likely 2 based on my thoughts). Additionally he has either 1 or 2 other players who have a vested interest in not voting him.

This makes the reason that his wagon has stalled out much more understandable, IMO.

--

Ok, now after that thought exercise I would place the following players as Empking’s most likely partners. If he flips scum (which I feel he will) you definitely want to look in this pool –

Wicked – Look at his ISO. It is absolutely filled with point after point where he is arguing with Empking. It’s the dominant part of his ISO. Yet he shows absolutely no movement to actually consider voting him. In fact he ‘RVS wagonned’ Emp but was very quick to jump off when Empking started to get heat.

Sloth - Zero interactions with Empking, but when questioned says he’d support an Empking lynch in ISO 6.

Caboose – Spends a paragraph in ISO 3 in what looks to be coaching Empking about his play. In the same ISO attacks the biggest VI in the game (yes, even bigger than Empking) DK and never looks back. Later states he’s ‘unenthused’ about the Empking wagon but provides no reasoning.

Those are my top picks for possible partners for Emp.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm the Seer. As MOI said my wagon is populated by scum. Can we lynch neil now?

If he's fake-claiming real Seer do NOT counter-claim.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Why can't you be a wolf again?

The thinking is as such on his claim -

He is either the real Seer or fake-claiming scum.

If he is the real Seer the Werewolves can't risk him getting a guilty scan off and kill him at Night.

If he is a fake-claiming Evil Sheep the Werewolves can't really risk the chance he is the real Seer when the odds of them randomly hitting the real Seer at 1/9 (remaining players not Empking or Wolves).

If he is a fake-claiming Werewolf he lives through the Night and must be lynched Tommorow.

[MagnaofIllusion]

(Supposedly a made a slip where I became adamant that MOI was a wolf rather than a Sheep.

At any rate, if MOI was town then he'd unvote me.

)

I've bolded the part that is funny.

1. Why I am I the only one who isn't Town for not unvoting you? Hmmmm?
2. If you are the real Seer you really have little to fear about being quicklynched. You know that right?

No Town player is going to hammer you now. That means the only players who would risk quicklynching you are the Werewolves. Evil Sheep have no reason to do so as the Seer is zero threat to them and makes a tempting NK target instead of them. You have repeatedly stated that you believe Neil and I are Werewolf partners. We are both on the wagon. Under you premise that you've been floating you can't be quicklynched.

So letting you sit at L-1 is hardly a danger to you unless you are fake-claiming. Then you risk either the Werewolves or real Seer hammering you.

My vote will stay for the moment until everyone who hasn't voted for you has posted.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm glad you didn't unvote me. That doesn't change the fact that it neatly makes it clear that you're scum because your actions (not unvoting me) don't fit with your words (calling me an evil sheep.)

Lulz. If I think you are fake-claiming Seer as Evil sheep then the logical course of action is to let either the real Seer or a gutsy Werewolf hammer you. And I do think you are.

Once every has had a chance to see your claim and our discussion and not hammered then I will unvote.

[MagnaofIllusion]

UNVOTE: Empking
VOTE: TwistedSpoon

Althought Empking is likely fake-claiming scum he isn't going to be hung today.

So I'll move to the next solid bet.

This is clearly not Town Twisted I am seeing.

[MagnaofIllusion]

the difference?

I believe only one game we have played previously together, assuming you haven't meta'd myself

and my playstyle as confirmed town is rather different

Even just looking at Day 1 (where you were not confirmed) there are strong differences between your play under pressure and when scum-hunting for two factions (in Donner Party) and your play in this game.

--

Hez - you playstyle is interesting. Large walls explaining his feelings with little sign of actually identifying motivations.

- Magna #309 - where he is STILL focusing on "Empking could not have searched three games". Look, a town would be like "this point is moot I have
ten other points agaisnt you that are all highly relevant" whereas a scum would be looking for some new points, even if he has to invent them, to
make it seem like Empking is overwhelming scum (as opposed to highly likely scum). Greedy scum. (Still note: Empking is scum. I don't care for
Empking's alignment in determining MoI's)

Clearly I have no other points against Empking at all

- Magna #319 - Magna is scumhunting. I will give him that. Based on the setup of this game, it's irrelevant. But the point on Wicked is definitely
noted. ... but he finds Caboose suspicious. Ugh Ugh Ugh.

Clear indication that you are not reading for content. That was a list of players who make sense as Empking’s partners if he flips Evil Sheep. It was not a ‘Top Suspect’ list.

But why shouldn’t Caboose be suspicious? You feel lurking is a Town tell?

Your discrediting of my argument "he's just looking for things that could be scumtells" is noted. You don't need to be an excellent debater to find scum. I don't believe you to be town though. You kill people at night. (Or maybe you are evil sheep) How's that?

Rather marginal. You do get credit for going with more than rhetoric (“He’s scum because I say he is”). Either you are mediocre Town you doesn’t understand the concept of scum motivation or scum of some flavor reaching.

Further game-play will tell.

FOS: All those on Empking's wagon after the Seer claim. This is an open game, folks. You don't lynch the only claimed power role on Day One. (FYI, I still believe Empking is scum, but this is BASIC MAFIA THEORY PEOPLE).

This is the kind of grandstanding I expect to see from scum in a game like this. Scum-points to you.

--

Can you link me to the Empkingtown game where you believe he played differently?

My direct game with Empking as Town was LMP’s KGB Mini Normal Mafia.

--

MangaofIllusion (Your tactic was to act like you were on Empking's wagon until you and your Mafia scum could find a plan to get him off the hook, now Regfan has done it)

Thanks DK. I needed a good laugh this morning.

Let me ask – should I not find the timing of this sudden suspicion interesting in light of Hezlucky’s vote?

You hammer on a player you didn’t list as Scum in your last post is also noted.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 4pm EST til Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.

I’ll be using what time I have to re-read the thread via cell because Empking’s flip as the actual Seer was unexpected to me. I need to re-assess my reads.

--

What the frakking frak was the frakking spam wall for, then?

Bloody hell. Bloo-dy hell.

So with the Seer gone, we've only got VTs against the Wolves and Mafia?
Bloody hell. Gonna have to do some ISOing.

This screams a variation on the classic “Oh, the Doc is dead, things are going to be hard” slip. See DarlaBlueEyes in THIS GAME as the most recent example I have.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, that re-read was rather painful.

I think Neil, Wicked, Regfan and Muffin all had interactions and reasoning surrounding Empking that they aren’t on the top of my suspects lists.

In looking at ISOs Cjdrum and Sloth’s votes for Emp look the worst.

--

@LMP

– I’d like to see your revised reads list after you factor in the Night flip.

@Hez

– I second the question : Please explain your Town read on the Caboose slot.

--

I wanted Empking dead, he turned Pro-townie, but he wasn't helping much of the town at all, imho TwistedSpoon looked very innocent. I will be looking into who started TwistedSpoon's case and cast my vote on them.

I hate the fact that nobody wants Empking lynched anymore, but since Twistedspoon is at L-1, I guess this is what the town wants.

Unvote
Vote TwistedSpoon

This should at least provide us with more information which ever way he flips.

Vote
Wickedestjr

From reading the past few pages, Wickedestjr was the main driver of TwistedSpoon's case, explain yourself, please. You didn't have "strong" evidence for actually wanting him lynched.

1. DK hammered Twisted, a player he stated in 413 he had a Town read on. We were not at deadline when this happened.
2. DK wants to find the players who started the wagon and lynch them. He doesn’t say he wants to find the players with the worst votes on the wagon.
3. The dreaded “will give us information” reasoning for the hammer is suspect. Especially since he attacked Wicked for not having “strong evidence” to vote Twisted.

VOTE: DeityKabuto
--

CJ would be me second vote if I had one. I agree with Regfan’s assessment of CJ at 419. Furthermore Cj’s absolute unwillingness to commit to reads of other potential scum candidates is in line with scum-motivated play.

--

@MagnaofIllusion - Why have you been ignoring my posts in response/directed to you?

If you can point me to post numbers where you feel I am ignoring your post and you expect response from me please let do so and I’d be happy to respond.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MagnaofIllusion, that made my feel a bit more scummy about you, your logic for voting me is a bit confusing, so please explain again. :/

Aha the threat - "Suspecting me made you seem more scummy". Noted.

It's quite simple logic.

You hammered TwistedSpoon. In that hammer post you say "This is what Town wants" as your explanation for your vote. We were far from deadline.

First thing after night you state that "Whoever started the vote on Twisted is scummy because I had a Town read on him"

Town players don't hammer Townreads outside of absolute deadline to avoid a No-lynch and twice try and shift the blame elsewhere (saying it is Town's will in your hammer post and then trying to say those who started the wagon were scum).

Furthermore you distanced yourself strongly from every bad vote (Empking and Twisted) on Day 1 today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

LMP: If Sloth is obvscum with zMuffinMan as obvpartner, why is zMM stuck directly in the middle?

I'm not LMP but I'll take this one.

This game has 5 remaining scum. Muffin happens to be the fifth person on his depth chart. That would be consistent with him being scum.

--

Yeah, after that post where CJ jumps on the Sloth 'bandwagon' and ignores actually committing to reads he's certified scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’ve reviewed Hez from a meta standpoint (driven by Muffin’s meta accusations and Muffin’s back and forth with Regfan). He doesn’t have much activity on the current site and a search of the archives was not very fruitful. I have something I’m keeping my eye on but I want to see more posts from him today.

I’ve also reviewed Sloth’s posting history. He has 20 posts on site since the thread opened on Friday. Not a single one in this game.

Hez on the other hand hasn’t made a post on sight since he last posted here.

One of these behaviors is highly suspect compared to the other. And may earn my vote.

--

Me saying that I wasn't for the Twistedspoon vote isn't scummy at all, a scum wouldn't think like that, I simply voted him before the "deadline" (which I had ignored) because I trust the towns and that was what the majority wants, either way we still have information.

It’s one thing to say you think TS was Town.

It’s another to actively hammer said person because ‘Town wanted it’.

The first is reasonable. The second is scummy as hell.

Unlike me, who stated my actions in Day 1, a scum would want to go by unnoticed or convincingly which means they would never state what they'd done / their though process in the past. I highly doubt that is the "mindset" of a scum. Right now, I am getting sort of a Town read from you, but I don't trust much of anyone as of what recently happened in Day 1, but you are trying to scum hunt, but try not to limit your options to I alone, and make any drastic decisions, their are plenty of others.

The first part of this is pure WIFOM – no scum would do what I have done. The second half of this looks like appeasement (I am getting a sort of Town read from you) and attempting distraction (try not to limit your options to I alone).

Not impressive.

Never the less my pressure on you has yielded what I was interested in seeing from you currently.

UNVOTE: DK
VOTE: CJDrum

--

DK, why do you not trust me? What have I done that made me seem to have broken your trust?

What in the hell is this?

--

1. Fairly sure Cjdrum just town-slipped here, if I've read this right he still doesn't understand the mechanics of the setup - The werewolves are the one with the kill, not the mafia.

If you believe this to be credible what is your opinion on Neil’s mix-ups pre-game?

[MagnaofIllusion]

General Comments

–

I think the relative difficulty in gathering any sort of wagon on DK despite is scummy play at the start of today is a sign he’s scum of some sort. Were he Town VI I think there would be much more of a push to run him up. I can understand a few Town having reservations but there is no way with 5 anti-Town players it should be this difficult.

Wicked and Muffin seem to be locked in some death-spiral style head to head at the moment.

I very much agree with Wicked's 491 also.

--

I laugh at how their are several scum trying to push suspicious on me,

Who are the scum pushing suspicions on you? I want direct names aside from Neil who your vote is already on.

--

Take from that what you may, he was my highest point total before but he's very VI so I'm still super-hesitant.

At what level of direct scummy play do you stop giving the “VI” pass out? I’m curious to know how much higher DK would have to go on your ‘scum-o-meter’ before he actually could be voted.

Further, he didn't like the Empking wagon and unvoted DK. I like the DK unvote because of my own personal hesitation that DK might be town VI, rather than obvscum. DK and Empking are both very easy lynches, and he just didn't go for either of them

So if his DK vote was not RVS I’m curious how he gets points for unvoting as he ‘didn’t go’ for DK. A serious vote (as shown in 132) indicates he did feel DK was scummy and was pushing for his lynch.

At this juncture I’m not going to argue that LMP is likely Town since he’s a fairly easy read in that department IMO. I just want you to justify that logic.

- "thinks like Hez" re: Muffin and MoI, who are my top two targets right now. Though I'm sure you knew that my meta actually disproves your argument and not the other way around -_-. You desperately want to be right. But you aren't. I'm not in the other scumgroup, buddy. I'm straight up town.

Interested in why you lump me in to this argument when I’ve said I wanted to see more from you based on my meta read and haven't said you are directly scummy. I’d like an idea.

Feeling is a funny thing. As you say, you can use it to justify anything

Absolutely. It’s what you’ve used to justify most of your posts against me.

--

I agree with pretty much all of 491. I think Sloth is a better lynch though.

Can we lynch it now?

Let’s discuss this LMP. I’m not adverse to the position that Sloth is scum but I want to see why you think he’s a better lynch than CJ.

Both have been avoiding the thread.

CJ’s last post was Tuesday where he hopped on Sloth for posting elsewhere on site and not posting here. Since then he has 2 full pages of posts in his “See user’s posts” list all over site – mostly in Mish-Mash but also in Newbie games and MD. He’s basically doing the same behavior that he voted sloth for but on a much large scale.

Sloth’ last post here was over a week ago. He has 1 “See user’s post” list since then and was posting in other game. However this is the only game he requested replacement in.

Add in that Cj was actively scummy yesterday (specifically avoiding giving reads) and today (his “Oops, Seer is dead” woe is me Tell) and I can’t see going after Sloth first.

If you disagree tell me why.

Regardless I’ll make you a deal – support the CJ wagon today and I’ll back you on Sloth tomorrow. Sound good?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Mod - I'll be V/LA from today at 4pm EST til Monday for my usual weekend family duties.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I will be reviewing the thread now that we have a confirmed Mafian down and LMP's death.

@Havingfitz - Now would be a good time to get your thoughts into the thread

. I very much want to see your opinions today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

CJDrum ISO Review –

Now, I know it's page 6, but I haven't really posted yet... What do we think of the MafiaSheep? It's not like they can kill us... But it's hard to differentiate between Werewolf-tell and Mafia-tell. I think we should only kill Mafia if we don't have a Werewolf in hand.

In review this was a clear tell by CJ.

People CJ voted for

–

Day1 – Empking and Twisted
Day2 – Sloth and himself.

Still living players with any significant interactions coming from CJDrum –

Wicked and Neil

--

Not much to see there. What I can take from this –

Given CJ’s play I’m inclinded to thing his partners will be found in the players he was more or less ignoring completely. Of the remaining alive that would be Hez, Regfan, DK, and Muffin. I’ll be ISOing those players to see who best fits partners.

Regarding his Sloth Vote –

I’m going to dig at this a little bit because

1. I don’t think it is bussing
2. It will probably give more insight into CJ’s partners.

CJ’s vote for Sloth comes at 465. The previous official Vote-Count is as follows –

Vote Count:

HezLucky (3) - LynchMePls, zMuffinMan, Regfan
DeityKabuto (2) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
neil1113 (1) - DeityKabuto

Not Voting: cjdrum, Sloth, Wickedestjr.

Following this LMP moves the vote from Hez to Sloth at 464. Thus the wagons were

Hez (2) – Muffin and Regfan
DK (2) – MoI and Neil
MoI (1) – Hez
Neil (1) – DK
Sloth (1) – LMP

4 minutes after LMP (confirmed Town) votes for Sloth and CJdrum immediately elevates it in a 2 way tie with Hez and DK.

The lack of push on both Hez and DK means to me both are more likely to be partners with him. And it looks like he simply selected the easiest target (Sloth) to go after.

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Havingfitz

Now that he’s actually committed to reads in thread in his ‘catch-up’ post I feel there is information to work with.

I’ll address that monstrosity of a catch-up post later in an independent post. For now LMP’s strong suspicion of Sloth is a great jumping off point for my vote today. Especially since CJdrum's play against your slot before he was under pressure means you are very likely NOT Evil Sheep.

--

Mafia: ZMuffinman and Cjdrum

I’m going to go ahead and label this as an off-shoot of my Newbie game “Player messing up the number of Mafia tell”. DK specifically has listed only 2 Evil Sheep including the now deceased CJ.

Thanks for confirming my suspicion in that regard DK.

There are not much towns left, and I am one of the few townies alive, by this post, I will most likely be the next victim of the Werewolf, and I think we already lost, so as of now, I would have the Mafia people claim, and they should side with Townies to at least get rid of the werewolves.

1. Not much Town left? 8 players are alive – 4 Town and 4 scum of two flavors.
2. Appeal to Fear (we’ve already lost) noted.
3. This pretty much is poorly designed grandstanding meant to grab “Town” cred. It is quite clear that the Evil Sheep aren’t going to out and claim.

I’d be strongly pushing your wagon today if I didn’t think you were likely Evil Sheep.

--

I'm wondering why LynchMePlz was night killed though. I could speculate and say it's because others believed him to be scum too, and so the Wolves were hoping to kill a Mafia member. But to be honest, that then makes me look bad because I was pressing him so hard as scum before the day ended.

Interesting that you would choose to post this when you specifically say it makes you look bad.

I, however, am more than happy to speculate on why LMP was dead. I certainly anticipate the cries of WIFOM … there is a solid grain of truth to that argument.

But in this set-up (known roles) there is one strong reason for the Werewolves to kill anyone after the Seer is dead – they are the greatest threat them. With that in mind I would guess that the bottom of LMP’s scum list is very likely to contain a Wolf.

That list was –

TOWN
MagnaofIllusion
Regfan
neil1113
DeityKabuto
zMuffinMan
Wickedestjr
cjdrum
HezLucky
Sloth
SCUM

Furthermore this makes me encourage to look at your ISO in more detail. Especially since my gut says you probably avoided Sloth like a plague both days.

--

It's also entirely possible I'm completely off in my Wicked read, but I'm very sure Hez is scum of some sort at this point.

At this stage that’s not good enough. Which faction do you think Hez is more likely to be in?

--

I'm here. Want to lynch Magna or Muffin today. Don't really care which but it'll be hard to convince me otherwise. Going to do a reread though I'm not sure how useful that will be. Maybe I'll ISO.

Glad to see that the flip of CJ as Evil Sheep (who avoided mentioning you like you had the cooties, BTW) doesn’t make you look at your reads with new eyes.

That’s sarcasm. But given I think you are very likely Evil Sheep I’d rather cast about for Werewolves for lynching today.

--

Though, to be honest I'm unsure if it's optimal to aim for werewolves or mafia today, MoI I'd like your thoughts on this.

I believe the optimal play for today is lynching a Werewolf. The Evil Sheep only remain a threat to them from the standpoint of victory due to numbers. Eliminating another Evil Sheep more or less eliminates that threat to the Wolves.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hez ISO

–

RVS vote for Wicked.

ISO 2 – Votes DK for having a ‘stupid’ statement.

ISO 3 – First content wall post … does not mention DK, CJdrum, Wicked, Muffin, or Regfan or Having’s slots.

ISO 6 – Second large content post –

Recomments on DK’s stupid post at 99. Says DK’s 118 is ‘retarded’ and calls him his ‘new number 2’. Yet agrees with DK’s read on Caboose (saying 132 was a Good Post).

Says CJ’s 133 raised a good point.

Given my slight suspicion of Sloth (not mentioned here) and stronger suspicion of MuffinMan, if I were in Magna's shoes i would definitely have asked them something as well. Maybe Magna is not paying attention to one of his buddies on purpose?

1. Hez at the point of this comment had not mentioned a single point about Sloth. Why is there suspicion?
2. Attempting to draw immediate links between players. Behavior which continues consistently Day 1 before any flips happen.

No other mentions of CJ drum in this ISO at all. Note that he slots DK as his second place suspect but gives a ‘reason’ to not vote him – “Esp given I am afraid that DK might be the biggest noob ever.”

ISO 7 – Votes DK as his highest vote getter after Empking claims.

ISO 8 – Yet another large wall o content –

CJDrum #274 makes it seem to me like he isn't bothering to READ the game. it's possible he hasn't foudn enough time for it, thanks to Empking's
spam. It's also possible he's scum adn has no motivation to scumhunt. This will be cleared up in future days, I hope. {no points}

So he identifies behavior that is suspect, but specifically goes out of his way not to ding CJdrum for it (since it will be cleared up in future days).

Gets ‘a good feeling’ from DK’s 296 while simultaneously saying it comes from a “huge VI”.

CJDrum's posts are useless to me now, but are goign to be interesting once we get some flips. I am going to refrain from trying to read him
until that time.

Specifically fence-sitting on CJ. His posts are ‘useless’ but he doesn’t want to commit to a read on him until flips happen.

In this post he unvotes DK (still his number 1 actual viable suspect per points) to vote me with “DK could be a VI” as an excuse.

This is the last post of Day 1

ISO 9 – Opens the day with DK still as his Top read via his ‘points system’ but specifically avoids once again voting for him because he is a VI. Slots CJ right in the middle of the pack saying “he has a hard time getting a read on him”

ISO 11 –

Corrects CJ on his ‘mix-up’ of Evil Sheep and Werewolves at 430. Given we know CJ flipped Evil Sheep this screams “Hey look at my partner Town-telling right here!!!!”

Dings DK’s 439 as scummy voting.

Still doesn’t vote for DK who remains at the top of his ‘list’ despite specifically calling 439 a scummy post that distinguishes from VI behavior.

ISO 13 – “Why do I have three vote?” Nervousness in face of pressure.

(FTR: I don't inherently oppose a Drum lynch but there are at least 3 people I would rather lynch first - Magna, Muffin and Sloth)

Poorly managed distancing on CJ. He doesn’t oppose a CJ lynch even though in his last Points list CJ is in the “all others – 50/100” category? That makes no sense from an honest Town perspective. There are 6 other players above CJ on his list. Town Hez should not agree to a slot that falls well below the "alive number of scum" line on his 'calculator'.

--

TL DR Summary

– Hez’s behavior towards CJ is highly indicative of partnership. No strong reads on the slot. Soft distancing but keeps a strong focus on others.

His DK read supports my thougthts as well – DK has been riding the top or second slotof his “points computer” but he’s carefully managed to avoid actually voting for him based on weak “VI” defense. Not he specifically didn’t touch the DK wagon Day 2 when it was the Top competing wagon.

I’m happy sloting Hez and DK as the remaining Evil Sheep after this re-read. It will help me narrow down my focus on the Werewolves today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna is trying to speculate on why LMP is dead, which is fine. However, it's more than likely that he killed LMP himself, looked at his scum list
and thought "there aer some easy lynches I can push on the scum side", then tried to justify LMP's death by stating that LMP "knew something special"

This is not AT ALL how a town person thinks

Actually it is very much how a Town person thinks. I know, I have my role PM that says Town.

Pro-Tip – even if you were Town (which I’m fairly certain you aren’t) you don’t define the Town thought process by your personal playstyle. Sorry to burst your bubble Tex.

The reason LMP is dead is because he is no longer an easy lynch. I distinctly remember being asked WHY I HAD A TOWN READ ON CABOOSE and then I distinctly remember from yesterday him (MoI) asking me for an explanation of the Caboose town-read.

He stopped being an easy lynch, in your terms, the minute LMP replaced in. Nice try to frame the argument. Fail, but nice try.

So what happened? After I explained it, he decided Caboose was no longer really lynchable, stopped attacking him altogether, and killed Caboose/LMP in an attempt to make his lynching of Sloth easier. He even tried to setup today's lynch with his towards LMP. Then killed him so he would not be committed to Sloth incase a better wagon came up.

This signals that you are scum.

1. You assert I was attacking Caboose. Please quote me where I was. Asking you about your reads (in looking for your partners) isn’t that.
2. You assert I was looking for a way to make Having an easy lynch yet leave the door open for backing off if a better one appeared. Yet I’m the first vote on Having today while other wagons (Neil and yourself) were available. So my actual actions refute your weakly crafted theory.

I felt Sloth was scum yesterday, but havingfitz is a definite townread right now, and {Muffin - your scum-ass can meta this from Draft Mafia} I've been in situations before where teh replacement is far more town than the initial player, and it's usually because they ARE town.

Inconsistency and flip-flopping ahoy!!!

Yesterday sloth was scummy as hell in your eyes for replacing out as he did. You specifically said you would rather lynch him than CJ (your partner). Yet today when Having actually posts content that agrees with you (calling you Town and me scum) suddenly you 180. Self-serving waffling for the Evil Sheep loss!

I must be partners with them right? Yes. Town buddies. Though it won't help very much.

Lulz. Nice attempt to deflect the clear connections as opposed to addressing why they are wrong. Caught Evil Sheep waiting to be sheared is caught.

I’d rather lynch a Werewolf today so you are lucky (get it, it’s a pun on your name) on that account.

--

Did you have anything to say in response to 356? I had issue with your plan for handling the seer.

Not really. I don’t particularly care if you disagreed with my plan. In the end as the real Seer he got killed as I predicted. Your sky is falling approach to his theoretically living thorugh the night was just that. Werewolves can’t risk the at worst 20% chance (2 Wolves out of 10 non Seer alive players) one of them gets scanned. 356 was an exercise if overthinking.

Day 2 it was a moot point since Empking was dead so rehashing your paranioa wasn’t worth it, IMO.

Let me ask you – you specifically asked me why I was ignoring your QUESTIONS, plural. You’ve only provide one question so far that I ‘dodged’. Why the emphasis that inferred I ‘ignored’ you more than once?

Explain please.

Care to provide some context? Or at least post numbers? I’m not going to search my own ISO for two sentances.

[MagnaofIllusion]

You're going to have to explain why you believe DK is an Evil Sheep rather than a werewolf becasuse I believe the opposite.

I think my posts have summarized why I believe he is Evil Sheep.

1. Interactions (or lack thereof) with CJDrum.
2. CJ’s choice to vote Sloth / Havingfitz over either Hez or DK Day 2.
3. DK’s Day 2 open of Day play and his slip (yes, my personal tell but I’m not going to ignore it) on the number of Evil Sheep.
4. DK’s insistence that Evil Sheep would only appear at the last vote. I see complete ham-handed “I’m not Evil Sheep” in those posts.

If you disagree that’s acceptable … that’s the nature of Mafia.

That would make sense, the only thing that worries me is that if we do indeed manage to lynch a werewolf today they have less incentive to shoot towards the Evil Sheep as leaving them alive would leave more suspects for town to lynch towards.

In the short term yes but as long as we have the possible threat to Werewolves of losing an endgame due to Evil Sheep the remaining wolf would have to be congizent of trying to shoot / lynch them tomorrow Night if not tonight.

Also call me biased but I feel pretty strongly about my Evil Sheep reads so I’d much rather take the killing faction down a peg.

--

On the monstrosity catch-up post...I tend to get comments along that line whenever I do one. That was the main reason I Spoiler'ed it in here. It's my brief thoughts on posts that catch my attention as I catch up...like it or not.

I probably should have used a different word than Monstrosity, something with less negative connotation. I have no objections to large catch-up posts as it gives me plenty of material to work with.

I look forward to what I hope is a more detailed reason than someone else's suspicions...which iirc revolved around Sloth's lurking. Which I will not be guilty of.

1. The suspicion isn’t that he was lurking. Let’s be clear. It’s that he was actively posting in other games while not posting here. Much like CJDrum, but on a lesser scale.
2. Your level of activity does not simply wipe away Sloth’s play. You do know that right? I can give you numerous examples of scum under suspicion who replaced out for a more active player and was given pass that resulted in a Town loss.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Response to Having’s replace in post –

Specific responses to his suspicion of me:

8 - MOI...odd opening remarks. Provides super helpful seer claim advice (unsolicited help is suspect IMO)

46 - MOI seems to have a lot of modly or helpful posts. Suspicion towards him increasing....

58 - MOI is the game facilitator. Not a good thing IMO. Answers question for neil despite the fact neil had already answered.

An ongoing trend in your suspicions. Please explain why providing solid advice to my team is scummy.

17 - MOI claims to have not mulled over the specifics. So posting for the heck of it? W/O thinking your odvice over thoroughly????

Poor logic. Not having pored over every possible scenario (including whether a claim at the Day before MYLO would be optimal) does not mean the general advice wasn’t well thought out. It was clearly intended for a Day 1 claim scenario.

68 - MOI wallposting with Emp. Claim his RV vote on Emp is not random...though it was the first legit vote of the game which I would assume was random. If it wasn't random....why provide absolutely no reasoning with it (that I can see)?

No, it wasn’t random. Your assumption is invalid. Emp's voted for Neil based on a pre-game post I clearly indicated to Twisted wasn't inherenly scummy pre-game. Yet Emp persisted. Thus my vote for him.

73 - MOI pulls out his meta to his defense. To paraphrase him, he's not playing in this game like he did in another game he was scum in. Well thats good to know...so do you always play the same way as scum MOI?

No, but I was pointing out that quite clearly Empking had direct experience very recently about how I played as scum and he was ignoring it to fling around some theory about how scum interact.

158 - MOI outright refusing to answer question from EMP. Scummy IMO.

Not answering questions that have been answered multiple time is scummy? Noted.

263 - MOI declares DK 100% VI and is willing to lynch him if necessary...though it seems policy-like.

Incorrect. I’m all for lynching a scummy player who happens to be a VI (which has NO alignment connotations at all).

319 - MOI is keying on the same VC I want to look over. I agree with most of what MOI says about this VC (specifically regarding Emp) but he only gives analyzes potential scum on the basis of Emp flipping scum. He does state most of the 5 on a potential Emp town wagon would likely be scum (I was thinking at least three scum but I still need to look it over).

Why should I have analysed Empking’s wagon from the standpoint of him being Town before his flip when I had a scum read on him?

This is bad “after the fact” attempt.

412 - MOI didn't expect Emp to flip seer.....my my.

Of course I didn’t expect him to flip Seer. He played scummy. Are you attempting to say it that’s a scum-tell?

444 - MOI votes my scum frontrunner DK. Bus? Chainsawing? Different alignments? Perhaps one/both of them is town? (unlikely)

Other than to say that DK and I are both scum this point says nothing concrete about our affiliation (Sheep versus Werewolf). IIoA.

499 - MOI setting up the next day's lynch.

Absolute mis-rep.

466 - MOI calling cjscum out for cj's post towards me. With cj's flip in mind...I doubt MOI is mafia. Perhaps werewolf....?

520 - And we have a self hammer. Not sure what to make of cj's comments to MOI. It's enough to make me look away from MOI but at the same time makes me wonder if that was the intent.

These two end of post comments are strikingly inconsistent.

In 466 you say my push means I am very doubtfully Mafia.
In 520 you say that you doubt CJ’s intent in his self-hammer post. What intent that indicates I am scum can you come up with that shows CJ operating on inside information that doesn’t stem from me being his partner, and thus Mafia.

--

Other non-MoI comments

-

322 - Great...Sloth jumps aboard the Emp train :/
325 - Great...Sloth makes a really WTF??? post. >:|

“Attacking the predecessor” scum-tell – Ding!

356 - Wckdjr gives rationale for not lynching Emp D2. Makes sense. Could also be coming from a werewolf?

Elaborate on why it makes sense.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hez’s

565

is an exercise in Appealing to Repetition (if I keep saying MoI is Werewolf without backing it up logically maybe people will believe it), rhetoric, ironic double standards (whining about having his character discredited while making a large wall doing just that to someone else), and lazy song parody writing. Ok the last part isn’t a scum-tell but is true.

Hez doesn’t feel he can win a debate on the merits of the argument so he’s retreated to this territory.

Don’t worry Hez … once we take down a Wolf I’ll come and put your malicious Evil Sheep self out of your misery.

But while you are spinning your wheels -

Who is Evil Sheep? Commit to a position!

--

Neil’s

561

is pure AtE. DK’s case was rather comical Day 2 but his continuing reaction in saying “I’m made because no-one is making a real case on me” falls in the “Caught for the wrong reasons” category of scum-tell.

I’m going to have to re-read his ISO and sloth / havingfitz and decide if he makes a better possible Wolf than havingfitz.

--

I see little if any Sloth focus on your part on D2 yet despite other suspicions you’ve got material/evidence/ etc. on others, you are fine with pursuing the Sloth slot’s lynch today. That is scummy IMO.

Wait, whut? It’s scummy to for me to suspect you when I feel you are a Werewolf and lynching the Evil Sheep (Hez and DK, IMO) as opposed to a Werewolf isn’t in Town’s best interest?

As to a focus on your slot Day 2 – sorry , I’m allowed to follow my suspicions wherever they lead.

You do know that people posting more in one thread vs another does not preclude them from being town? You do know that right? If anything I usually think of it as people are bored with the game they are ignoring…and IMO it is easier to be bored when you are town then when you are scum.

I do know it doesn’t preclude them from being Town. However it is OVERWHELMINGLY more likely to come from Scum than Town when said player is under suspicion (which Sloth was from LMP). Spinning it as ‘bored Townie’ is WIFOM.

I disagree that Sloth wasn’t under suspicion. You ignore the fact that before the shift to CJdrum I had particularly pointed out the Sloth’s behavior was suspect.

In response to your numbers

–

1. Yep, you may find it a scum-tell. IMO at worst a Null-Tell since it is in a Townie’s best interest to direct Town in the direction he sees as effective scum-hunting.

2. If you can show me the scum motivations in the original post please do so. What do scum specifically gain? Curious to see what possible motivation you can come up with other than the ‘you are trying to look Townie’ angle which again we disagree on.

3. It wasn’t a random vote. You can disagree with me about whether you think it is nor not but if you do you are wrong. I’m the one who cast the vote and knows my motivations.

4. I’d already answer Empking’s questions on multiple occasions throughout Day 1. By the time of the post in question he was again rehashing ground covered by myself and others.

7. There is a huge world of difference between “Hmmm, I was wrong about Empking I need to re-read” and “Damn, we’re screwed as helpless Town now that the Seer is dead”.

9. Then you don’t know what ‘Setting up lynches’ is. Town in a scum rich environment should have multiple suspicions. Setting up lynches is saying “Hez is obv-scum if CJdrum flips Town for x,y,z” before a flip happens.

10. It is inconsistent because you are trying to classify CJ’d parting WIFOM as something that you should be suspicious of me for. The only way that you should be suspicous of me for CJ’s statement is if you think we are partners and he was spewing WIFOM trying possibly distance from me with that statement. Yet you clearly think he and I could not be partners. What inside information is he possibly working from to make that post in your scenario? He can’t know my alignment other than that I’m not Evil Sheep.

11. I’ll cover this later when I break down my ISO of your slot. Suffice it say it is a pretty strong scum tell in my mind when a player replaces in and says, effectively, “The person playing in this slot before was a moron”. It allows the replacing scum to free themselves from reads of the slot already and go in whatever direction of mislynching they wish.

12. No, I don’t agree. It’s pointless ‘Sky is Falling’ material. After the lynch for the day we had two living werewolves in 11 living players. Empking had at absolute worst a 2/10 (20%) chance of randomly scanning a Werewolf. It’s not a good risk in a mutli-scum game (where there is another faction with strong motivation to hunt you down) to risk losing 50% of your team to a scan result. Even taking that risk you allow the Seer a chance to get a clear on someone as Werewolf that may be important down the line. Again, as I properly predicted Empking died.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Hezlucky – WHO ARE THE EVIL SHEEP?

Are you afraid to commit to a position? Are you uncomfortable being 'taken out of your zone' when called on to actually scum-hunt?

571

is quite quaint. He’s ‘taking me out of my comfort zone’. More sterling examples of mud-slinging and empty rhetoric.

I will continue this unorthodox style of attack on Magna.

If by unorthodox you mean contrived and empty of actual scum motivation then we agree. That is what you are doing.

Seriously, this is what you guys are looking for, and I have spent the last two-three days SHOWING YOU WHO THE WEREWOLVES ARE. Magna and Muffin.

Keep Appealing to Repetition Hez … it might work (no, it will not but I wanted to give you a glimmer of hope).

[MagnaofIllusion]

You STILL have not responded to a single thing I have said.

What am I not responding to again? The last time I responded to your assertions you came out with 565 where you yourself failed to actually address arguement but made a HERP DA DERP post. I'm responding to your "MoI is a Werewolf. I've proven it" statements by labelling them what they are ... Appealing to Repetition and rhetoric. Typical scum attempt here - keep repeating the same lines over and over as opposed to actually demonstarting them to be true.

You are also trying to avoid RESPONDING TO ME by CHANGING THE TOPIC OF CONVERSATION. When you have two scum pegged as strongly as I do (Magna and Muffin), I am not going to muddy the waters by naming other suspects. I have no desire. Furthremore, unlike yourself, I have no intention of planning any future days lynches. You are completely beside the point. My next post will be you again.

I don't care whether you suspect me or not. I'm just quite clearly showing that you aren't really scum-hunting from a Town perspective. You aren't trying to identify all the enemy groups. The above quoted paragraph illustrates it quite clearly - "My reads are so strong I'm not going to muddy the waters" is code phrase for the following - "I don't want to commit to actual reads so in days going forward I can take whatever position I want without having to worry about possibly explaining a change". No coincidence that the group you don't want to commit to happens to be your buddy in the Evil Sheep.

[MagnaofIllusion]

major scumtell number one : ALL that Magna EVER DOES is use his big, fancy logic words

So basically my personal playstyle is a scum-tell. Good to know.

Yet regardless of who is target is for the day, he is able to come up with a laundry list of why that person is scum. a LAUNDRY LIST. He has close to 50 reasons, usually, why that person has done scummy things. However, here's the kicker:

If you are not Magna's lynch-du-jour (or a future lynch), he won't even acknowledge ANY scum tells that you are showing

Except the asserted, which I’ve bolded, is not even close to being true. I’ve clearly spent time looking at both you and DK today (in putting together relational tells and assessments of scummy play) but neither of you are at the top of my lynch list. Because you are unlikely Werewolves. So that argument falls flat on its face.

I believe town Magna would hunt for scumtells ridiculously, look for very arbitrary things, and would decide that Person A has 50 of these scumtells (yes, Magna can come up with 50, no problem), and that Person B has 20-30.

You’ve never played a game with me so I have no idea where you are getting this ‘numberizing’ system. I don’t attempt to ‘value’ scum-tells and go after people based on a summary of these values. You are the one that has the ‘scum meter’, not me. I don’t hunt by volume. This is a further example of not honest scum hunting by Hez. He's trying to frame what he thinks Town Magna would do while not actually looking at my many completed Town games. He's attempting to meta me to some ficticious standard. Not a Town thought Process.

You have no idea how badly I wish I was a vigilante right now. You would not survive the night.

Yes, I understand that you wish you had a Nightkill so you didn’t have to worry about actually trying to get my lynched. That's what I would expect from a Evil Sheep who feels trapped by my suspicion.

(hell I don't even want to continue with the ISO -- too boring. Let's see if Magna actually responds to a SINGLE ONE OF MY POINTS without just reaching into his dictionary of words and pulling something out in hopes that I will go away. I will not, Magna, and I'm going to make this day BRUTAL for you.)

Why bother to actual build a case …

If you think what you are doing is ‘brutal’ I’ve got news for you Tex … it’s more like ‘brutally funny’.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 4pm EST until Tuesday for the holiday weekend and my usual family duties.

I’ll be doing my HF / Neil ISO reads in my next content post.

--

Unvote
Vote Regfan

obvscum obv

We lynch Regfan today, results are when he flips. Can't explain, but my gut is telling me that he is more of a threat than Neil.

This post baffles my mind. DK has spent 2 days yelling that Neil was scum. At the point he made this post Neil had 3 votes (with his) and Reg had none. I can’t fathom why any alignment would leap off the leading wagon he had been clamouring for to vote someone else on ‘gut’.

--

Why do you find my slot scummy MOI? Why have you changed your focus from the 4 or 5 scum you stated MUST be on the Emp mislynch (made when Emp was at L-2)?

At a gut level I suspect your slot for very low performance levels Day 1 and Day 2, Sloth’s being active in other games while avoiding this one (again, a scum-tell to me as I demonstrated with CJDrum), and LMP’s death after his strong suspicion of your slot.

Again I’ll be re-reading your ISO and neil’s ISO to see which I think best fits as a Werewolf in my game architechture.

What focus are you talking about? I’ve never believed that 4 to 5 scum were on Empking’s L-1 wagon. My whole commentary there was to demonstrate that his ‘quick-hammer’ fear was unfounded since Empking himself thought most or all of the scum were on his wagon. Was there scum on the wagon besides CJDrum? I think so since I have Hez and DK slotted as Evil Sheep. That said I can't see a higher concentration than that and this is making me rethink CJ - Hez - DK as Evil Sheep since I can't believe all three would crowd on the wagon, especially in slots 3 4 and 5. Your slot's hop onto the 6th vote also increase my thoughts you may be Werewolf, but it also makes me fairly confident you aren't scum with Neil.

Unless you have statistics to back up your “OVERWHELMINGLY more likely” comment I suggest you stop with the hyperbole. The way you are “spinning it” is WIFOM as well. That’s why it is null.

It think the proper response is this is best summarized as the following –

Considering the tell is being directed at you, it’s no surprise you consider it null.

As you’ve stated yourself – it is a strong personal tell that I have. I don’t need a full on Hoopla statistical analysis to run with it. You are doing the same with your personal tells.

Show me the quote.

Here you go –

In looking at ISOs Cjdrum and Sloth’s votes for Emp look the worst.

I’ve also reviewed Sloth’s posting history. He has 20 posts on site since the thread opened on Friday. Not a single one in this game.

Hez on the other hand hasn’t made a post on sight since he last posted here.

One of these behaviors is highly suspect compared to the other. And may earn my vote.

I think both those quotes show considerable interest in your slot as scum. If anything you earned a repreive via CJ's more egregious play.

And it’s in scum’s best interest to appear townie. Considering the tell is being directed at you, it’s no surprise you consider it null.

And it’s in Town’s best interest to appear Townie also. Unless you are going to say Scum are more likely to appear Town than Town is it’s a Null tell at worst.

I’m guessing my catch up post had 75-100 lines in it. All made up of posts that caught my attention. Not all that I would consider scum tells. They were a real time play by play of what I was thinking. I was not implying there were scum motivations in your comment in question. I was implying that you had not put a lot of thought in a previous comment by not thinking a subject all the way through. I would not put a vote on someone for that suspicion. I would (and have) stated it is not a major tell. The fact you are choosing to continue defending this minor point is becoming more suspect IMO that the original suspicion.

So you made a long post that was peppered with comments that weren’t scummy but simply observations? Ok, why fluff the length of your replace in post that way? You presented that along with your ‘scum reads’ (which you also distanced yourself from, as others have noted) as the supporting case. If you want to try to say questioning you about the materials in your Wall that aren’t scum-tells is scummy then have at it.

If it wasn’t random...then why not give one single hint of rationale as to why you were placing it?

Because to me it was clear my motivation in context of the pre-game talk.

Question

– do you always suspect players who don’t give concrete reasons with votes? Are people like Faraday who never do automatically scummy to you for their playstyle?

How much difference does it take for it not to be suspicious? Neil’s response was more emphatic and I noted it. Once again...a minor suspicion IMO...but the minors add up.

1. CJ’s response was the most emphatic. Did you note it? I don't remember.
2. If you can’t see the difference explaining it to you again isn’t going to help. I’ve explained the classic scum-tell of “Oh we are screwed without the Seer” and how it is completely different from admitting my Empking read was wrong.

I didn’t realize I was in the presence of the all knowing mafia adjudicator of everything. You say you aren’t lining up a lynch, I say you are and IMO your comments support that. Since we disagree it’s moot between us and depends on how others see it...if they care. It’s a big tell IMO given the limited attention you had given the Sloth slot the entire game.

Your dismissive sarcasm aside the volume of my posting with active and scummy players is always going to be higher compared to a low content producing active lurker like Sloth. Take that as a scum-tell if you wish.

First off...once again...my comments were made as I progressed through the game and are what my thoughts at that time were. My first comment indicated doubt that you and cj were the same alignment (ie you could be a werewolf). Your comments make it seem I was convinced you were not scum. I never indicated that. As for the 2nd comment, I said I was “Not sure what to make of cj's comments” towards you. I still feel that way. Uncertainty is part of the game. Are you saying I should consider you a LOCK to not be a partner of cj? Have you ever bussed as scum?

So your stance is you made a bunch of observations and don’t necessarily have to stick with them because they were “stream of conciouisness”?

If that’s the case I want a concrete list of reason you suspect me … similar to the case you’ve been asking me to provide on you. Because you’ve made it clear that anything you said in your catch-up may or may not be valid depending on your mood at the time.

Don’t put words in my mouth. I never said Sloth was a moron. All I did was note two of his posts that I did not care for. Up to that point in the game I thought Sloth had played, albeit sparingly, a decent game. Also...when I commented on those posts I had the benefit of knowing Emp’s imminent flip and therefore how accurate Sloth’s suspicions were. The second post I just did not agree with.

Of course you didn’t say those words directly. I’m pointing out that behavior such as that is a strong scum-tell for replacements. I’ve done it myself. So throwing in those comments about Sloth didn’t serve a Pro-Town purpose other than to distance yourself form the predecessor. Town doesn’t actively do that, IMO.

So you are saying you don’t agree with logic (leaving Emp alive N1) which if adopted by the wolves would have been a bad wolf move to make. Why not?

Why not agree with something that if the wolves had bought it...could have benefitted town?

Instead you flaunt your mafia IQ by stating the obvious and adding the point that you predicted Emp would die. Other than stroking your own ego what purpose does your “once again, stating the obvious” successful prediction matter?

I’ve bolded the part you state here as a knock on me that explains why it wasn’t going to happen and was pointless "Pro Townie" posturing.

Scum aren’t in the habit of doing things that are more beneficial to Town than themselves on a lark just because someone makes a post. That’s Mafia 101. You can say it is ‘flaunting my Mafia IQ’ if you wish … it is just common sense. Even the worst scum I’ve ever seen (Razorback) would not be foolish enough to risk being scanned just to WIFOM it up.

The only reason the Day 1 claimed Seer lives til morning is because he was fake-claiming Wolf.

Finally fitz - why are you not voting?

The day is well underway. I don't see why you haven't committed your vote to one of your suspects.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Aside from the havingfitz vote, I have issue with most of MoI's post 542.

I'll respond to the the rest of this post at a future date ... little time now.

1. I will be looking back but why don't you disagree with the havingfitz vote? I know you aren't voting for him yourself ... did you find sloth scummy?
2. Please outline why you disagree with my 542 statements. I'd love to see what in it you have issues with.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Sloth / Havingfitz ISO Review

–

Sloth

RVS votes me.

ISO 3 - Votes DK for his bad early play right after Hez votes for him Day 1.

ISO 4 – Say DK is scum no matter which way Empking flips due to his tunnelling.

ISO 6 – Calls DK noob-scum. Says he’d also lynch Empking (who was only mentioned in ISO before thirdhand) or Twisted (who he threw a simple question at)

Lots of softball questions that are never followed up on (ISO 2,5,8)

ISO 9 – Drops L-1 vote on Empking causing his claim.

ISO 12/13 – Unvotes Empking (after two others) and then votes Twisted (at the time Twisted had 3 votes and Neil had 2)

This ends Day 1 and effectively all of Sloth’s input.

I’ve already pointed out in my back and forth with Having elements of his posting that I find scummy.

In summary – Sloth’s Day 1 contributions lacked any significant scum-hunting and would be best classified as active-lurking (which he took to new levels Day 2). His suspicions revolved mostly around those players under the most general suspicion (DK, Empking, Twisted) with ‘suspicion aimed at Neil but never acted upon via vote or pressure.

Having has continued keeping this vote profile at a minimum. I notice Neil still is in his list of ‘suspects’ but once again the slot has zero interaction with him. Look at his ISO. Neil only appears in his catch-up post and his ‘VC Analysis’. No questions or direct quotes of Neil posts.

Finally Having’s DK vote Day 3 comes at a time when the following a wagons are established –

neil1113 (3) - Regfan, Wickedestjr, DK
HezLucky (1) - zMuffinMan
havingfitz (1) - MagnaofIllusion
MagnaofIllusion (1) – HezLucky

If Neil was a real scum read for havingfitz I would assume he would be more likely to support an active wagon on Neil than trying to start a new one on DK.

Possible link between Neil and the slot noted.

--

Neil ISO Review

–

Neil’s pre-game continual ‘Oops’ postings still sit as a Null tell for me.

ISO 5 – Votes Empking to pressure him for better content.

The whole head to head with Empking is also a Null Tell for me. Empking was clearly not playing a very logical and solid game so the push back and forth could be EmpkingTown agains Neil of any alignment.

His first significant interaction with anyone other than Empking comes at ISO 29 –

1. He says Diety would be a good ISO target (aka likely scummy) except there would be nothing to review other than Empking interactions.
2. Doesn’t see the logic behind ‘cases’ on Sloth or Hez.
3. Thinks Twisted is second scummiest player.

Has some back and forth with Muffin and Regfan around ISO 30 to 40 but that section contains mostly 1-liner responses.

ISO 45 – votes Hezlucky for being the scum on Empking’s L-1 wagon.

Around ISO 47 he starts some back and forth with Wicked.

ISO 50 – “Alright well considering the deadline is gone, does everyone agree that a Twistedspoon flip would really be the most beneficial thing for us?” – He states this while his vote is on Hez and Twisted is at L-1. Reads as fishing for support for a hammer vote.

Day 1 ends here.

Starts the day with some fluff and pointlessly arguing with Regfan about Regfan’s projection of MYLO / LYLO.

ISO 53 – Calls Wicked scum for ‘scum Paranoia’, continues to call Hez scummy.

ISO 54 – Asks DK why he doesn’t trust Neil.

ISO 55 – Votes DK. For not scum-hunting and having ‘no case’ on Neil.

ISO 56 – Says DK is a VI and “At least, not worthy of my attention to lynch more then HezLucky.”. Yet he is still voting for DK as of this post.

ISO 58 –“I actually strongly agree with the CJ case, though I don't see why people would be willing to lynch Sloth over CJ when Sloth is wanting to replace out?

I'm willing to hammer, but I'm not going to lie, the LynchMePls vote on CJ looks a lot like a bus vote...”

Quoted for Sloth interactioin (he continues to ignore the slot).

Day 3 he has stated suspicions of Hez, Deity, Sloth and DK as possible CJ Partners.

“However, I'm not so much concerned with trying to find his partners, as I am trying to find the werewolves. Considering Mafia are just useless, and it's the Wolves that do the killing, it'd be nice to try and lynch one of them. Considering the circumstances, I'll eliminate VI Deity, and easy wagon'd Sloth from my main suspects and focus in on Hez and DK. I'll be ISOing each of them individually, and posting what I find (or don't find) in these ISO's.”

Note he disregards Sloth as an ‘easy wagon’ as someone not to focus on.

ISO 63 begins his “make a case” responses to the votes on him.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Havingfitz’s reaction to the prod in 597 is suspect.

1. How are 48 hour deadlines bad?
2. Why didn’t you V/LA (as many of us did) for the holiday weekend?
3. Resorting to the “Why doesn’t X also get a prod” response?

I agree with Muffin and Regfan regarding having’s ‘VC Analysis’ at 600. It’s not an actual VC analysis. An actual VC analysis uses all vote-counts and draws conclusions

FROM

the voting patterns. Having has just shoe-horned his ‘reads’ into a handful of VC’s to support them.

--

@MoI, Regfan & havingfitz- What do you guys think of this point from zMM? Also, notice how, rather than convince me of his PoV, he simply tries to justify it by saying 'a link is a link'. What do you think of that?

I have a Town read on Muffin at this stage for Two reasons.

1. His posts haven’t really dinged my scum-dar.
2. POE. I have some solid scum reads and some tentative scum reads. He’s not in them and I’ve run out of scum slots.

I personally think you are over-blowing the ‘link is a link’ comment. I tend to agree with your assessment but understand how you can see links as he is. Hell, I’m beginning to doubt my DK – Hezlucky Evil Sheep link based on the Vote-counts but I see it plain as day in their posting.

--

Claim: Vanilla Town

havingfitz, and everyone else who votes me after this is scum.

Insert face-palm pic here.

--

Why are half of the people in this game scum? You guys really suck. Someone bus Muffin/Magna already.

Clear evidence Hez has nothing but ranting and rhetoric in his ‘arsenol’. He’s called Muffin and I Werewolf partners. The other Evil Sheep would have no reason not to vote us (like Hez is voting me) if they truly though we were scum. That’s not bussing

Note he continues to refuse to make reads on who might be Evil Sheep. Scumtastic.

Regfan's aggressive pushing of havingfitz is noted. Havingfitz's townreads are very, very solid. Don't lose the game for everyone, regfan.

1. Appealing to Fear. Scumtastic.
2. Buddying to havingfitz noted.
3. Underlying assumption that Reg if Town from Hez noted.

Magna has spent the entire game planning lynches, and I don't think he would do this without the ability to kill (too much uncertainty -- it would be futile to try).

Lulz. I’m the scum faction who can determine with absolute certainty who dies at Night. Hez’s theory is that I’d plan out lynches as opposed to just staying in the background.

Luzl.

--

I still find it odd that you would've considered lynching Empking to be the best way to determine his allignment as opposed to the real seer counterclaiming him.

Why should the real Seer counterclaim Day 2 if they don’t have a Guilty. If they do sure. Otherwise it’s outing themselves for no reason.

As I have addressed – you can’t provide a realistic scenario where a claimed Seer survives where they are not a Wolf. In fact in this game Empking, who played very scummy Day 1 and could have been a viable lynch had he not scanned a Wolf, was not left alive on the ‘off-chance’ he didn’t hit a Wolf or was fake-claiming Mafia.

Both quotes were from post 473.

Ok, looking at the post in question -

I have something I’m keeping my eye on but I want to see more posts from him today.

This was in regards to Hez. I wanted to see how his posts Day 3 developed in context of the CJ Evil Sheep lynch and how that affected his reads. The result – his reads more or less didn’t budge other than his buddying up to now active Having.

Never the less my pressure on you has yielded what I was interested in seeing from you currently.

I wanted to see DK’s reaction to further direct pressure. His backing off to my questioning and vote aligns with my ‘DK is probably scum’ theory.

--

Like I’ve said…I have examples where someone ignoring one thread while being active in another was a town. In fact…I think most of the times I have encountered this situation it HAS been town.

And I have examples of Scum doing it FAR more than Town. I find it a strong scum-tell personally.

I would argue that you DO need statistical analysis when making over the top assertions to support your suspicions on someone.

Well where is the strong statistical analysis support for all your ‘strong’ personal tells then? Those are just as ‘over the top’ as anything I’ve said.

Anyone who elects to bail on a game based on your ISO 46 above has no business playing mafia. If you really think your ISO 46 scared Sloth away I can only shake my head in disbelief. Your comment is hardly a damning indictment on Sloth.

Your ISO 49 came AFTER Sloth has went AWOL.

You can not accuse someone of being AWOL for something you say is a RESULT of him going AWOL. You are really reaching with the (and I paraphrase) “Sloth bailed because he was under so much pressure” theory.

The bolded is an ABSOLUTE LIE!

Sloth requested replacement at post 496. My ISO 49 came at post 444. This is before his request for replacement.

I’ve never asserted that I ‘caused’ Sloth to not post in thread and then replace out. You are fabricating that in an attempt to straw-man my position. He was under suspicion by more than just me.

Fact – Sloth had some suspicion in this game Day 2.
Fact – Sloth actively posted in other threads while avoiding this thread and eventually replaced out while staying active in other threads.

And yes…when people vote someone out of the blue without any reasoning (or without reasons I can perceive in the context of other posts/conversations) I find it suspicious. I just finished a game with Faraday where I attacked him for this very reason, ended up backing off, and lost to Faraday scum. So that is two personal tells I have fell victim to that you are waving off.

So you significant personal tell is based of a single game? Hardly a statistically valid tell then. Have you ever played with Faraday as Town?

You seem more than happy to wave off my ‘personal tells’ as Null. Why shouldn’t I be able to do the same with yours?

IMO you're sidestepping the fact that you were lining up the next day’s lynch. Here is a reminder:

Actually I’m directly telling you that’s not lining up lynches and you have no idea what you are talking about. Vastly different than sidestepping.

Suspicions change. Over the course of a two full days catch up….suspicions or comments made early in the read may very well change later in the read through. Why is that so hard to comprehend? I mentioned four suspects…why do I have to build a case on you for an initial gut suspicion?

1. Your presentation was hardly a little ‘gut suspicion’ post. You presented it as a very comprehensive look at the game with comments on a number of things you found suspicious.
2.

INCONSISTENCY DETECTED

!!! You’ve been hammering (falsely, I might add) about my ‘sudden’ suspicion and vote for you yet you are trying to use the ‘suspicions change’ defense yourself.

I can’t distance myself from Sloth because I took over his role.

Actually you absolutely can. As I’ve said it is a pretty common scum tactic to use. Replacements always have their own point of view but scum have more motivation to effectively say “Hey, I’m replacing a moron!”.

First off…I bolded the comments in my quote. Are you even paying attention to what you write?

Yes. I copy / paste and don’t take original formatting with me. The bolded is the part of your comment that makes NO sense form the perspective you are arguing.

Nice use of further dismissive language.

I realize it would not make sense for the wolves to leave an actual seer alive. But why not agree with the logic that IF Emp HAD made it to D2…continuing to not vote him would be the best move for town?

Because this isn’t Fantasyland? Seriously … go find me a single Jungle Republic game where a claimed Seer survived the Night after claiming and wasn’t the killing faction. If you know of one please do because I have never seen it myself.

You can’t come up with a SINGLE scenario where it makes sense for the Werewolves to leave a non-Wolf claimed Seer alive overnight. Not a single one that isn’t a WIFOM fest that revolves around gambling with bad percentages on the Wolf team’s part.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm putting this in a seperate post -

UNVOTE: havingfitz
VOTE: Neil

That should put Neil at L-1.

After reviewing neil's ISO I think Regs' summary of the case on Neil is pretty accurate.

His activity has dropped WAY off after the day one blow-up with Empking. He's not committed to any strong reads or even voted Day 3. I don't see a strong push towards Havingfitz Scum developing so I'd rather have my vote somewhere effective.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Vote Count:

neil1113 (4) - Regfan, Wickedestjr, DeityKabuto, MagnaofIllusion (One vote away from lynch!)
HezLucky (1) - zMuffinMan
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
DeityKabuto (1) - havingfitz

Not Voting: neil1113

Isolating the following for future relational purposes.

Note that both Having and Hez have both said "Neil is in my scum pool". Let's see what happens from here.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Vote Count:

neil1113 (4) - Regfan, Wickedestjr, DeityKabuto, MagnaofIllusion (One vote away from lynch!)
HezLucky (1) - zMuffinMan
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
DeityKabuto (1) - havingfitz

Not Voting: neil1113

Isolating the following for future relational purposes.

Note that

Having has said

"Neil is in my scum pool". Let's see what happens from here.

EWBOP of the above ... bolded for changed text.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I can't be around to post, since I'm on V/LA. So thanks for giving me a chance. I'm town, so go ahead and hammer if you'd like. I can't post an accurate defense against anything right now, as I barely had time to get to a computer. If you think I'm lying, hammer me and see for yourselves. DK is most definitely not town though, see why he wants to quick lynch me? Yep. Anyways, I'm not going to self-hammer, as that will help the scum. I'll be back around the 4th, or 5th. I think.

@Neil

- we have no set date for deadline that I can see.

Why didn't you actually vote DK in this post (would not take any time) if you are sure he is scum as opposed to leaving your vote idle. I eagerly await the explanation for this.

--

Is there anyone (outside of Hez himself and Havingfitz) who has any sort of Town read on Hez?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Regfan, Wicked, DK, MoI,

Do you think neil is a werewolf or mafia? And why?

I think he is likely Werewolf. I have a strong Hez is Evil Sheep read and I can’t buy that all three Evil Sheep were on the Empking L-1 wagon.

--

So let me get this straight: you're trying to intimidate/scare me into voting neil so that I can "look better" to the town? Screw that. I already told you I don't play to a meta. And you are EXTREMELY scum. (Appeal to fear noted. Hah.)

When are we going to lynch this guy?

Anyone who loses has only themselves to blame.

Nope, nothing of the sort. I’m trying to see if those player other than yourself see what I see in your play – Not Town flowing from every pore.

I’ve bolded your use of the Appeal to Fear so you can understand exactly what that is.

Also, quite consistent with Magna trying to set up lynches this entire game. How is this guy not lynched yet?

Three reasons –

1. Your ‘case’ resolves around yelling ‘He’s scum” and dancing around with Pants firmly attached to your skull.
2. I’m Town.
3. The people you claim I’m ‘lining up lynches’ on are scum. Town generally likes people to actively and aggressively go after the bad guys.

--

Havingfitz’s

647

to

648

is a pure example of fence-sitting to distance, IMO.

In 647 he says that Neil’s last post has a ‘Town feel’. 10 minutes later in 648 he reverses course and says it isn’t Townish after all. If Neil flips scum I am fairly confident havingfitz will be a partner.

Not sure how much posting I'll get to tonight. The Magna post 633 alone will take forever to reply to. WTF with all the walls.....?

As for your [Magna] pathetic attempt to coerce me into hammering neil, I like my read on DK more than I do neil. Plus neil's last post had a town feel to it that has me questioning my view on him.

No need to rush the day's end

and I still want to look things over (aside from the VCA). neil may still get my vote but it won't be until I'm ready...

not when Magna or DK are.

Regarding bolded – I don’t particularly care if you hammer. I was bringing up the clear conflict between your supposed read of Neil as scum with your actions.

Regarding italicized – misrepresentation of my position. 644 shows clearly I’m don’t want Neil hammered before he can respond.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@ Having re 656 – You don’t know what a VC Analysis is if you keep saying “I plug in my suspicions and it supports it”.

Here’s an ACTUAL VC Analysis (in this post and the next)–

Blue = Confirmed Town
Green = Confirmed Evil Sheep
Purple = Confirmed Werewolves (none yet)

Spoiler: Raw Data – Day 1

Empking

(1) - MagnaofIllusion
neil1113 (1) -

Empking

Not Voting:

Twistedspoon

, Regfan, LynchMePls, neil1113, HezLucky, DeityKabuto, Wickedestjr, zMuffinMan, Havingfitz,

cjdrum

.

Empking

(2) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr
neil1113 (1) -

Empking

Wickedestjr (1) - HezLucky

Not Voting:

Twistedspoon

, Regfan, LynchMePls, neil1113, HezLucky, DeityKabuto, zMuffinMan, Havingfitz,

cjdrum

Empking

(3) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, neil1113
Wickedestjr (1) - HezLucky
MagnaofIllusion (2) -

Empking

, Havingfitz
Havingfitz (1) - zMuffinMan
HezLucky (1) -

Twistedspoon

Not Voting: Regfan, LynchMePls, HezLucky, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

.

Empking

(4) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, neil1113, DeityKabuto
Wickedestjr (1) - HezLucky
MagnaofIllusion (1) - Havingfitz
Havingfitz (1) - zMuffinMan
HezLucky (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

Not Voting: Regfan, LynchMePls, HezLucky,

cjdrum

.

Empking

(4) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, neil1113, DeityKabuto
DeityKabuto (2) - HezLucky, Havingfitz
Havingfitz (1) - zMuffinMan
HezLucky (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

Twistedspoon

(1) - Regfan

Not Voting: LynchMePls,

cjdrum

.

Empking

(3) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto
DeityKabuto (3) - HezLucky, Havingfitz, LynchMePls

Twistedspoon

(2) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr
HezLucky (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

Twistedspoon

(1) - Regfan

Not Voting:

cjdrum

.

Empking

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky
DeityKabuto (2) - Havingfitz, LynchMePls

Twistedspoon

(2) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr
neil1113 (2) -

Empking

, Regfan
HezLucky (1) –

Twistedspoon

Empking

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(3) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr, Regfan
DeityKabuto (2) - Havingfitz, LynchMePls
neil1113 (1) -

Empking

HezLucky (1) –

Twistedspoon

Empking

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky
DeityKabuto (3) - Havingfitz, LynchMePls,

Empking

Twistedspoon

(2) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr
HezLucky (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) – Regfan

Empking

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(3) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr, LynchMePls
DeityKabuto (2) - Havingfitz,

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (2) - Regfan,

Empking

Empking

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(3) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr, LynchMePls
DeityKabuto (2) - Havingfitz,

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (2) - Regfan,

Empking

Empking

(3) - MagnaofIllusion, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

Twistedspoon

(3) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr, LynchMePls
DeityKabuto (2) -

Twistedspoon

, HezLucky
neil1113 (2) - Regfan,

Empking

HezLucky (1) - neil1113

Twistedspoon

(6) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr, LynchMePls, Havingfitz, MagnaofIllusion, Regfan (One vote away from lynch!)

Empking

(2) - DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

DeityKabuto (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

HezLucky (1) - neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) – HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(7) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr, LynchMePls, Havingfitz, MagnaofIllusion, Regfan, DeityKabuto (HAMMER!)

Empking

(1) -

cjdrum

DeityKabuto (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

HezLucky (1) - neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) – HezLucky

Spoiler: Raw Data – Day 2

HezLucky (1) - LynchMePls

cjdrum

(1) - Regfan
Wickedestjr (1) - DeityKabuto
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky

Not Voting:

cjdrum

, MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, Havingfitz, Wickedestjr, zMuffinMan.

HezLucky (2) - LynchMePls, zMuffinMan

cjdrum

(1) - Regfan
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
neil1118 (1) - DeityKabuto
DeityKabuto (1) - MagnaofIllusion

Not Voting:

cjdrum

, neil1113, Havingfitz, Wickedestjr.

HezLucky (3) - LynchMePls, zMuffinMan, Regfan
DeityKabuto (2) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
neil1113 (1) - DeityKabuto

Not Voting:

cjdrum

, Havingfitz, Wickedestjr.

HezLucky (2) - zMuffinMan, Regfan
Havingfitz (2) - LynchMePls,

cjdrum

DeityKabuto (1) - neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
neil1113 (1) - DeityKabuto

cjdrum

(1) - MagnaofIllusion

Not Voting: Havingfitz, Wickedestjr.

cjdrum

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, DeityKabuto, LynchMePls, neil1113 (One vote away from lynch!)
HezLucky (2) - zMuffinMan, Regfan
Havingfitz (2) - LynchMePls,

cjdrum

DeityKabuto (1) - neil1113
neil1113 (1) - DeityKabuto
zMuffinMan (1) - HezLucky

Not Voting: Havingfitz.

cjdrum

(6) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, DeityKabuto, LynchMePls, neil1113,

cjdrum

(HAMMER!)
HezLucky (2) - zMuffinMan, Regfan
Havingfitz (2) - LynchMePls,

cjdrum

DeityKabuto (1) - neil1113
neil1113 (1) - DeityKabuto
zMuffinMan (1) - HezLucky

Not Voting: Havingfitz.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Crap = Redone to color LMP as properly blue.

Blue = Confirmed Town
Green = Confirmed Evil Sheep
Purple = Confirmed Werewolves (none yet)

Spoiler: Raw Data – Day 1

Empking

(1) - MagnaofIllusion
neil1113 (1) -

Empking

Not Voting:

Twistedspoon

, Regfan,

LynchMePls

, neil1113, HezLucky, DeityKabuto, Wickedestjr, zMuffinMan, Havingfitz,

cjdrum

.

Empking

(2) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr
neil1113 (1) -

Empking

Wickedestjr (1) - HezLucky

Not Voting:

Twistedspoon

, Regfan,

LynchMePls

, neil1113, HezLucky, DeityKabuto, zMuffinMan, Havingfitz,

cjdrum

Empking

(3) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, neil1113
Wickedestjr (1) - HezLucky
MagnaofIllusion (2) -

Empking

, Havingfitz
Havingfitz (1) - zMuffinMan
HezLucky (1) -

Twistedspoon

Not Voting: Regfan,

LynchMePls

, HezLucky, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

.

Empking

(4) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, neil1113, DeityKabuto
Wickedestjr (1) - HezLucky
MagnaofIllusion (1) - Havingfitz
Havingfitz (1) - zMuffinMan
HezLucky (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

Not Voting: Regfan,

LynchMePls

, HezLucky,

cjdrum

.

Empking

(4) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, neil1113, DeityKabuto
DeityKabuto (2) - HezLucky, Havingfitz
Havingfitz (1) - zMuffinMan
HezLucky (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

Twistedspoon

(1) - Regfan

Not Voting:

LynchMePls

,

cjdrum

.

Empking

(3) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto
DeityKabuto (3) - HezLucky, Havingfitz,

LynchMePls

Twistedspoon

(2) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr
HezLucky (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

Twistedspoon

(1) - Regfan

Not Voting:

cjdrum

.

Empking

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky
DeityKabuto (2) - Havingfitz,

LynchMePls

Twistedspoon

(2) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr
neil1113 (2) -

Empking

, Regfan
HezLucky (1) –

Twistedspoon

Empking

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(3) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr, Regfan
DeityKabuto (2) - Havingfitz,

LynchMePls

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

HezLucky (1) –

Twistedspoon

Empking

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky
DeityKabuto (3) - Havingfitz,

LynchMePls

,

Empking

Twistedspoon

(2) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr
HezLucky (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) – Regfan

Empking

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(3) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr,

LynchMePls

DeityKabuto (2) - Havingfitz,

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (2) - Regfan,

Empking

Empking

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(3) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr,

LynchMePls

DeityKabuto (2) - Havingfitz,

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (2) - Regfan,

Empking

Empking

(3) - MagnaofIllusion, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

Twistedspoon

(3) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr,

LynchMePls

DeityKabuto (2) -

Twistedspoon

, HezLucky
neil1113 (2) - Regfan,

Empking

HezLucky (1) - neil1113

Twistedspoon

(6) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr,

LynchMePls

, Havingfitz, MagnaofIllusion, Regfan (One vote away from lynch!)

Empking

(2) - DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

DeityKabuto (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

HezLucky (1) - neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) – HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(7) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr,

LynchMePls

, Havingfitz, MagnaofIllusion, Regfan, DeityKabuto (HAMMER!)

Empking

(1) -

cjdrum

DeityKabuto (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

HezLucky (1) - neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) – HezLucky

Spoiler: Raw Data – Day 2

HezLucky (1) -

LynchMePls

cjdrum

(1) - Regfan
Wickedestjr (1) - DeityKabuto
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky

Not Voting:

cjdrum

, MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, Havingfitz, Wickedestjr, zMuffinMan.

HezLucky (2) -

LynchMePls

, zMuffinMan

cjdrum

(1) - Regfan
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
neil1118 (1) - DeityKabuto
DeityKabuto (1) - MagnaofIllusion

Not Voting:

cjdrum

, neil1113, Havingfitz, Wickedestjr.

HezLucky (3) -

LynchMePls

, zMuffinMan, Regfan
DeityKabuto (2) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
neil1113 (1) - DeityKabuto

Not Voting:

cjdrum

, Havingfitz, Wickedestjr.

HezLucky (2) - zMuffinMan, Regfan
Havingfitz (2) -

LynchMePls

,

cjdrum

DeityKabuto (1) - neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
neil1113 (1) - DeityKabuto

cjdrum

(1) - MagnaofIllusion

Not Voting: Havingfitz, Wickedestjr.

cjdrum

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, DeityKabuto,

LynchMePls

, neil1113 (One vote away from lynch!)
HezLucky (2) - zMuffinMan, Regfan
Havingfitz (2) -

LynchMePls

,

cjdrum

DeityKabuto (1) - neil1113
neil1113 (1) - DeityKabuto
zMuffinMan (1) - HezLucky

Not Voting: Havingfitz.

cjdrum

(6) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, DeityKabuto,

LynchMePls

, neil1113,

cjdrum

(HAMMER!)
HezLucky (2) - zMuffinMan, Regfan
Havingfitz (1) -

LynchMePls

DeityKabuto (1) - neil1113
neil1113 (1) - DeityKabuto
zMuffinMan (1) - HezLucky

Not Voting: Havingfitz.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Day 1 Analysis –

(1)

Empking

Wagon – Early dip and rise

Empking

(3) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, neil1113

Empking

(4) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, neil1113, DeityKabuto

Empking

(4) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, neil1113, DeityKabuto

Empking

(3) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto

Empking

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky

Empking

was the early dominant wagon. However when Wicked jumped off to move to Twisted immediately CJ and Hez jump on keeping it the dominant wagon. Right before this happened the following was the vote count.

Empking

(3) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto
DeityKabuto (3) - HezLucky, Havingfitz,

LynchMePls

Twistedspoon

(2) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr
HezLucky (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

Twistedspoon

(1) – Regfan

Not Voting:

cjdrum

.

So the

Empking

wagon dropped into a tie with the DK wagon at this juncture. Immediately Hez jumps from DK to

Empking

and CJ jumps onto the wagon from having an idle vote.

Conclusions – DK is possibly a partner to either CJ or Hez. Being aligned with both seems unlikely but is a possibility.

(2)

Empking

Wagon – At L-1

We do not have an official Vote Count for the

Empking

L-1 wagon. Constructing it based on rolling forward the last

Empking

VC at 5 we get the following

Empking

(6) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113, DeityKabuto,

cjdrum

, HezLucky, Havingfitz

Twistedspoon

(3) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr,

LynchMePls

DeityKabuto (1) -,

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (2) - Regfan,

Empking

Conclusions –

I can’t see DK, CJ and Hez all being Evil Sheep aligned together. Too much crowding on the wagon closely together.

At least 1 scum and perhaps 2 were off the wagon at this stage. Scum are not going to jointly commit all their resources to that lynch. That pool is –

Muffin, Wicked, Regfan – there is at least 1 scum here, and it makes most sense that they are Evil Sheep.

(3) Final Twisted wagon

Twistedspoon

(7) - zMuffinMan, Wickedestjr,

LynchMePls

, Havingfitz, MagnaofIllusion, Regfan, DeityKabuto

Empking

(1) -

cjdrum

DeityKabuto (1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113 (1) -

Empking

HezLucky (1) - neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) – HezLucky

Conclusions –

CJ’s partners are more likely to be on the wagon than be off. Muffin, Wicked, Having, Regfan and DK are more likely to be CJ’s partners than Neil or Hez.

Most likely the Wolves are split half on and half off the wagon.

Possible Wolves on – Muffin, Wicked, Having, Regfan, DK
Possible Wolves off – Neil, Hez

[MagnaofIllusion]

Day 2 Analysis

–

(1) Early Hez Wagon

HezLucky (3) -

LynchMePls

, zMuffinMan, Regfan
DeityKabuto (2) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
neil1113 (1) – DeityKabuto

Conclusion – At the start of the Day a small wagon built on Hez by vote-count 3. Muffin and Regfan are unlikely to be aligned with Hez since they were on this mini-wagon at its peak and stayed there until the end of the day.

At least one of Muffin and Reg is also more likely to be CJ’s partner for this reason. Their votes were parked on Hez and CJ’s self-hammer was likely meant to end discussion before they had to commit to read.

(2) CJ wagon builds

cjdrum

(1) – MagnaofIllusion

cjdrum

(5) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, DeityKabuto,

LynchMePls

, neil1113

Conclusion – This wagon on confirmed scum exploded quickly. Very unlikely that more than 1 partner got on this wagon.

Only 1 possible Evil Sheep in – Wicked, DK, Neil

(3) CJ final wagon

cjdrum

(6) - MagnaofIllusion, Wickedestjr, DeityKabuto,

LynchMePls

, neil1113,

cjdrum

HezLucky (2) - zMuffinMan, Regfan
Havingfitz (1) -

LynchMePls

DeityKabuto (1) - neil1113
neil1113 (1) - DeityKabuto
zMuffinMan (1) - HezLucky

Not Voting: Havingfitz.

Conclusion – Most likely there is only two other scum besides CJ on the wagon. Thus there should be two scum off the wagon.

At least 2 scum (probably split 1 Wolf - 1 Evil Sheep) in – Muffin, Reg, Neil, DK, Hez, having

[MagnaofIllusion]

Synthesis of Conclusions

–

1. DK is possibly a partner to either CJ or Hez. Being aligned with both seems unlikely but is a possibility.

2. I can’t see DK, CJ and Hez all being Evil Sheep aligned together. Too much crowding on the wagon closely together.

3. Muffin, Wicked, Regfan – there is at least 1 scum here, and it makes most sense that they are Evil Sheep.

4. CJ’s partners are more likely to be on the wagon than be off. Muffin, Wicked, Having, Regfan and DK are more likely to be CJ’s partners than Neil or Hez.

5. Most likely the Wolves are split half on and half off the wagon.

Possible Wolves on – Muffin, Wicked, Having, Regfan, DK
Possible Wolves off – Neil, Hez

6. At the start of the Day a small wagon built on Hez by vote-count 3. Muffin and Regfan are unlikely to be aligned with Hez since they were on this mini-wagon at its peak and stayed there until the end of the day.

7. At least one of Muffin and Reg is also more likely to be CJ’s partner for this reason. Their votes were parked on Hez and CJ’s self-hammer was likely meant to end discussion before they had to commit to read.

8. This wagon on confirmed scum exploded quickly. Very unlikely that more than 1 partner got on this wagon.

Only 1 possible Evil Sheep in – Wicked, DK, Neil

9. Most likely there is only two other scum besides CJ on the wagon. Thus there should be two scum off the wagon.

At least 2 scum (probably split 1 Wolf - 1 Evil Sheep) in – Muffin, Reg, Neil, DK, Hez, having

--

What do all my conclusions lead me to

?

I’m completely rethought my Evil Sheep stance looking at these VC conclusions. I can’t possibly see Hez as Evil Sheep in these Counts.

My gut now says CJ / DK / one of Muffin or Reg as the Sheep.

Wolf conclusions are more tentative (since we have no flips to power the VC Analysis) but I’m confident that Neil and Hez can’t be wolves together.

Likewise there are not likely Wolf partners in this group – Muffin / Wicked / Having / Reg

I'm going to have to re-read several ISOs in light of the VC count data and revise my connections.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I also think why cjdrum wont vote neil is because neil is his partner and neil is at L-1.

Cjdrum has been dead since yesterday.

Do you actually think about what you are typing before you post it?

[MagnaofIllusion]

One day? Two day? I'm pretty sure he had all of today to vote for him.

One game Day.

CJ was lynched

YESTERDAY

- as in Day 2.

Again - do you think about what you post?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Does this really matter?

Insert Epic Face-palm pic here ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hezlucky’s latest serious of posts expands on a comment made by Regfan ( I think it was him ) regarding Hez’s play. 671, 672, 677 and 679 all basically are active lurking fodder where he basically repeats over and over that he’s right. Note in not one of these posts does he actually push his ‘suspects’. They all feel exceedingly like scum who is comfortable that Neil is going to be the lynch so he doesn’t want to rock the boat by being the driving force behind moving the lynch from someone he knows he is not aligned with. That's scum motivated play.

My VCA says that one of Hez and Neil is likely a Werewolf. At this juncture I’d be willing to vote Hez if Neil isn’t the lynch today. The only reason I didn’t want to push him earlier in the Day was the relational tells that said he was Evil Sheep. Now that the VC Analysis tells me he is unlikely to be Evil Sheep he's back on the table as a viable lynch for me.

UNVOTE: Neil

One of Neil or Hez will be getting my vote when I recast it.

I agree with Regfan and disagree with Wicked on the theory that successful scum-hunting doesn’t lead to an increased chance of being NKed – a single game does not disprove a generally strong relationship. Especially in games like this one where there are no Town PRs to hunt.

--

Unfortunately this doesn't work as well as five years ago, as I no longer have a meta. Or else you'd just FOLLOW THE HEZ and lynch some scum.

I was waiting to see this post. The “I joined in 2005 so I know I’m a better player than you Newbs” post.

He’s been calling it laughable all day that he has a Meta to rely on. Yet look at what he says here – that his Meta used to be ‘Super-Scum Hunter 9000’.

Let me guess -- you killed my #1 town read, and want to frame it on me. It's garbage like this that makes it obvious that Magna/Muffin are DA WOLVES.

Please elaborate – was LMP your Number 1 Town read? And how is it framing since you were one of LMP's scum reads?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Explain.

Because there is no reason to have any sort of violent reaction to being prodded as Town. Add in the “Why didn’t you prod Regfan” bit (which I find a mild scum-tell) and bingo – there you go.

The real seer wouldn't have had to counterclaim day 2. They would counterclaim when it was massclaim time or if they caught both werewolves. Also, the seer might not have ever had to claim. Their death would have confirmed Empking was lying. Also, you are ignoring the game I linked. I'm not saying it's likely Empking would survive, but my point is that it wasn't 100% guaranteed that the werewolves would see him as the best option for a kill.

We are going to have a difference of opinion here that is not going to change. I believe with 100% certainty that any Seer who survives the Night is going to be fake-claiming scum and the best course of Town action is to lynch said scum. You don’t.

We’ve come to what is effectively a MD discussion and I think that signals the end of the usefulness of it here.

Then why did you switch your vote?

Because CJdrum was ‘certified scum’ (as I stated in 466) and was a better lynch for that reason (the switch came in 473).

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 3pm EST until next Wednesday for an actual vacation. I’ll very likely only have limited access from my cell phone for limited hours during that time.

--

Fix your meta MoI. It's awful.

Ok, I get it. You are the 2005 version of Fate. Wildly unimpressive play, a penchant for rhetoric over actually using your brain, a love for being pointlessly insulting, and an ego that is very disproportionate for your actual game skills.

That makes your posts make more sense. Fate is totally shit at reading me also.

--

Once I get back from V/LA I’m definatly going to have to look at Muffin strongly in ISO. Reading his last two pages really makes me think he’s not scum-hunting and purposefully locked into this “Death Spiral” with Wicked as a means of active lurking.

--

Having

– I’m going to keep this as short as I can. Most of 695 is first, second or Nth iterations of your opinion clashing with mine. I’m not going to continue to waste time debating these issues because you aren’t going to change your mind. On the other issues –

I agree with all the points above.

So you agree that that post by Hez is chock full of scumminess. Is he now a scum-suspect for you or is he still Town?

Referencing specific examples do not require statistics. Saying something OVERWHELMINGLY indicates something (ie scum alignment) does. Got it?

I get what you are saying. It’s wrong. A specific example isn’t generally very relevant due to the low sample size. So giving one isolated example of Faraday as scum doing something isn’t relevant.

I am reminded you dodged my question regarding Faraday –

Have you ever played with Faraday as Town? If so did he vote with no reasoning there?

Answer it in your next post please!

It’s not a lie. Exaggeration again by you. And I like how you call it a lie and then proceed to prove that you suspected him before he left. Why would you consider Sloth’s post 496 as his going AWOL? It was his stretch of not posting in here prior to requesting replacement that constitutes his AWOL and which started your suspicion of him. His last post prior to requesting replacement was Post 416. You start calling him out on his absence in Post 473. THIS equates to you putting pressure on Sloth for not posting in the game. He was not avoiding the game BECAUSE of pressure…the pressure was coming AFTER he stopped posting.

Your definition of AWOL is pointless to the discussion. He was suspicious for posting IN OTHER GAMES while not posting here. That was and has always been part of my suspicion on your slot. Note that after all the ‘pressure’ that was being applied Sloth’s NEXT post requested replacement.

I don’t think Sloth was avoiding the game due to pressure. I think he was avoiding the game because he was scum and wanted to keep a low profile after his Day 1 play. His reaction to pressure being applied for that was to replace out and continue to play actively in other games.

You are asserting that it is because he was a bored Townie. I assert it was because he was scum and his best course of action was to get a ‘replacement halo’.

2. No inconsistency here…I find it suspicious that you suspected DK so much Day 2 and are now focusing (or at least were when you voted me) on my slot for lesser or invalid reasons.

This is laughable. You dismiss it as not being inconsistent but don’t explain how your statement of “Suspicions change” doesn’t equally apply to myself as well as you. As for my reasons being lesser or invalid ... nah baby nah. Your slot was scummy with Sloth's avoidance of thread and your play here has been scummy.

Yeah, you are Inconsistent as Hell about this issue. Scumtastic.

You took credit for a comment I had made. You said you bolded something I had bolded.

Um, whut? I don’t care if you originally bolded it or not. I bolded it

SPECIFICALLY

to draw attention to the fact that the bolded portion of your statement undercut your point completely.

You are completely straw-manning the argument by going off on some unrelated tangent about whether you originally bolded it or not. That’s irrelevant. You ignore the actual point of the argument in favor of straw-manning.

Actually this is Fantasyland. Or are you really in a town that has evil sheep and werewolves?

DODGE DODGE DODGE

with another straw-man.

You can’t come up with a credible scenario why a non-Wolf claimed Seer would survive the Night so instead you post this fluff. Scummy as all get out.

--

Since my thread read of Wicked and my VC analysis both make him a very unlikely scum I’m going to place my vote with his. Especially after Having’s latest round of scumtastic replies.

VOTE: Havingfitz

I’m also open to lynching either Hez or Neil today as they are my other top Wolf suspects.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Limited access at this moment so I can't reply in full to havingfitz's latest tour de force.

But I don't want his last bit ignored.

His slot was also on both wagons. Yet he only mentions myself and DK as scummy for it.

I know the response will be 'But I know I'm not scum.

I know I'm not scum but you dont see me pushing that argument.

It's scummy. Period.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Back from vacation.

I'm rather exhausted currently. I'll be making a general response post sometime tomorrow.

Hez's latest burst of posting does have me in stitches. Mod-metaing? LynchTheory? Lulzworthy.

At least I hope you were trying to be funny in the last two pages Hez. Otherwise there are so many scummy nuggets to mine in there.

Also I don't recall Having actually commenting on my VC Analysis when he said he would.

[MagnaofIllusion]

The above is a pure example of rhetoric.

That's right Hez ... keep tossing words like 'not Pro-Town' and 'Lynch the Scum Magna' around again and again and again.

You are a busted, broken record.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Large Generic Catch-up Post –

--

Sir! Yes sir!
I did not dodge your question….pardon if it got lost in the clutter of your massive posts. I have played twice with Faraday when he was town. He didn’t give reasons with his vote in that game either. What’s the point?

1. I make mention of Faraday because he’s a fairly high profile example of players who don’t provide copious reasoning with their votes. There are many other … CES and inhim pop to mind. Here’s your response when I originally brought up Faraday –

And yes…when people vote someone out of the blue without any reasoning (or without reasons I can perceive in the context of other posts/conversations) I find it suspicious. I just finished a game with Faraday where I attacked him for this very reason, ended up backing off, and lost to Faraday scum. So that is two personal tells I have fell victim to that you are waving off.

The clear inference in your original statement was that Faraday was obv-scummy for not supporting his vote and you foolishly backed off. Thus I’ve been questioning you to see if you had other experience with Faraday. Now that I finally see you have played with him as Town it supports my suspicions. You know it clearly isn’t an alignment tell but a playstyle tell yet you cherry-picked the example where Faraday was scum to ‘support’ your ‘scum-hunting’.

The point is it this – it is yet another indication that you aren’t truthfully scum-hunting but are instead fabricating your ‘scum-tells’ (as you did with the MoI is scum he was on both wagons which you retracted when called on it). In my view you aren’thonestly looking for scum but instead are playing “gotcha”.

You say it’s pointless because it doesn’t support your suspicions towards Sloth. You have been quite generous with your MISREPs and the fact your suspect play is going unnoticed by everyone other than Hez is frustrating.

It is pointless because it once you are specifically trying to muddle the issue. Way to continue to improperly throw terms like Misrep (which you capitalized, nice touch) around some more.

1. Sloth’s play Day 1 was active-lurky and devoid of scum-hunting.
2. Day 2 he advanced that to actual lurking while being active on-site in other games.
3. When he did finally post after having some suspicions of his play mentioned directly in thread he replaced out with no significant reasoning but still continued to play in other games.

That’s suspect and scummy behavior. You may try to claim he was ‘bored Town’. That’s a pretty big stretch considering he signed up for an Open Game where he knew he’d in all likelihood be Vanilla if he wasn’t scum.

Where am I being inconsistent? Summarize it and I will be more than happy to address it. As I seem to have overlooked it, can you explain your sudden change of heart on DK?

1. I’ve detailed in thread you inconsistencies. This is a classic scum deflection move … continuing to ask again and again for ‘evidence’.
2. What change of heart on DK are you talking about again?

How is it strawmanning to point out the FACT that you were taking credit for bolding a comment I had bolded? I was simply pointing it out iirc. It’s a harmless point which I find your continued debate/defense of to be more suspect than the initial oversight/error.

It’s straw-manning because you have continued to focus solely on ‘Boldgate’ as opposed to the substance of the post. Rather than address the issue you point and are more or less say “AHA, you are claiming credit for bolding something I did, here’s a pic of a Cow, your point is invalid’. You can’t find a clearer example of straw-manning.

And I see you going to the same well again. You make a big production of pointing out something (you are claiming credit for something I bolded) and then when I attack you on it you say “Well, it was a harmless point but you continuing to address it is more scummy”. You are looking to justify your suspicions in any way possible. You did this with your ‘catch-up post’ and are doing it yet again. Scummy.

Again…why are my comments a strawman example? Your just throwing out mafia buzzwords to try and discredit my comments. What am I dodging?

Lulz, what? Your response to the whole point was to take issue with the use of the word Fantasyland. That's a strawman.

And then you have the balls to accuse me of throwing buzz-words around? Really … like MISREP in all caps? You are ballsy scum Having I give you that.

In your [Magna] last three votes you have qualified/based/ each of your votes on the suspicions/cases made by other players. SHEEP SHEEP SHEEP I bolded the lines below that illustrate this anamoly (Yes…I BOLDED THEM! See how that works?).

So what?

I notice you continue to pointlessly address bolding as if it is alignment relevant. Yet above I point out where you called it ‘harmless’. Scumtastic.

What do you think of Hez's VCA?

Like yours it’s an self-serving waste of time. He grabbed a few vote counts that supported his pre-conceived notions and presented them as 'evidence'. A VC Analysis takes ALL vote counts into effect and looks for behavior patterns.

I started to look at your VCA a few days ago and couldn't get anywhere with it so I didn't post anything. Since you ask...I looked again. The bulk of your VCA is lots of data that doesn't come to any succinct conclusions. You've basically left yourself open to anyone being scum. You did not really put people into firm categories as far as I can see. Everyone (except you naturally) is town or wolf, sheep or town, or sheep or wolf.

I see you pretty much ignored ISO 76 where I laid out the following points –

Hez can’t be Evil Sheep.
Evil Sheep is DK / one of Muffin or Regfan
One of Neil or Hez is wolves but they can’t be partners as Wolves..
Likewise one of Muffin / Wicked / Having / Reg is scum but they can’t be partners as Wolves.

Noted.

--

You people are being swayed by the fact that being able to accuse someone well =/= them being scum. MoI has IGNORED that point this entire game, and I am of the strong belief that MoI would do no such thing as town.

Lulz. You are openly stating that making effective cases in thread does not mean the accused is scum. Lulz.

I’m ignoring that point because frankly its stupid. This is Mafia Hez. When you can make a compelling case on someone it because they are more likely to be scum. I would have thought you would know that by now.

But I’d like to know where your ‘strong belief’ comes from. Because you’ve never played with me before. Ever.

In fact, Regfan's reads have largely sucked all game. He's been defending the wrong players and accusing the wrong ones. I will assess him tomorrow if one of Magna/Muffin can be lynched today.

Lulz. I’ll translate –

If you agree with me you are Town!!!
If you don’t you are Scum!!!!

That’s pretty much the jist of every read Hez has. Not his ‘read’ on Having slot before Having replaced in was scummy (he called Sloth’s replace out such) but when Having made his catch-up Hez magically shifts his opinion of the slot to Town. Simply because Having doesn’t suspect Hez.

Tomorrow's going to suck for you.

Unless this town is as stupid as I think it is.

Translation – Everyone is stupid but me …. (read picturing a Homer Simpson voice for the full effect)

Let's play "outguess the mod"

This town is clearly in shambles. If scum were causing this, I don't think the mod would be so upset.

However, I think the mod would be very angry if a "crappy town" were causing this. Conclusion: TOWN cannot agree on anything. TOWN+MAFIA cannot agree on anything.

This is so scummy it hurts.

Also, worth noting, is that I was the person who was most upfront about "not voting for Neil". Thus, I need to be placed in one of those two townslots.

Um, whut? You want Town cred for not voting Neil? Who you, if you were Town, couldn’t possible know his alignment Pre-flip? In a game with MULTIPLE scum factions?

Yeah, scumtastic work there Hez.

[MagnaofIllusion]

UNVOTE: Havingfitz
VOTE: Neil

Either neil or Hez is very likely Werewolf. I’ve made my push for Hez in thread and there doesn’t appear to be enough support to lynch him today. Bother.

So we'll move back to Neil.

[MagnaofIllusion]

What preconceived notions? My only preconceived notion was the Magna/Muffin wolf alliance of doom. Those potential mafia pairings were not at all preconcieved.

Yes, but driving your 'reads' with the Werewolf team preconcieved notion (which is 100% incorrect) renders the rest useless. When you do an objective VC Analysis it can shift your opinion. See mine where I moved away from thinking you were Evil Sheep which before the VC Analysis I was 90% sure of based solely on behavioral tells.

So let me get this straight. If Neil is lynched and pops up wolf I am confirmed innocent in your eyes?

Are you sticking to that?

I read your post and sadly there is very little that can actually be responded to .

Also very disappointed in the overall activity level of some players currently in this game.

Yes, very likely you become cleared as a Townie if Neil flips Wolf. Of course the VC Analysis gets further refined based on new flips but I don't see that particular conclusion changing for me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh Hez - where does your 'strong belief' about what Town-MoI come from again? We've never played together so I am very curious the source of your vast meta-knowledge.

[MagnaofIllusion]

TOWN
MagnaofIllusion
Regfan
neil1113
DeityKabuto
zMuffinMan
Wickedestjr
cjdrum
HezLucky
Sloth
SCUM

I'm reposting this read list from LMP to remind the Town players to not simply ignore the dead Townie's reads.

He was killed for a reason.

Having and Hez sit at the very top of his scum list.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Note for future reference – note how Muffin and Neil’s votes suddenly appear on me with not a bit of suspicion before their voting. Hez has been pointlessly tunnelling and Having is similarly deluded. Yet suddenly when Neil again reaches L-1 my wagon springs out of no-where.

--

This is not a meta. (Although I do read mafia games to hone my scumdar and you have been in those games that I've read before -- this is not a you-specific meta)

Nice way to NOT answer the question. Stop dodging the question.

What is the source of your “strong belief” that you know what Town-MoI would think?

Nightkill WIFOM. I did this before, now you're doing it.

You brought up the WIFOM and, in my eyes, it hurts your case.

I’d like to draw everyone’s attention to the following two excerpts from Hez’s 773. Notice the inconsistency … he offers up that he used Nightkill WIFOM himself earlier. If that was the case you would think he would find it credible. Yet he ends by saying it weakens my case. Inconsistency … you are soaking in it.

Also I’d also like to draw attention to Hez’s theory –

That his personal ‘Town read’ (which he admits was not widely shared when he says “which was asked to be explained by multiple players”) was so convincing that it rendered Caboose unlynchable.

And that is much more likely a reason for LMP’s Night kill as opposed to LMP having a strong scum read on the werewolves.

I don't buy that at all? Does anyone besides Hez seriously consider it credible?

--

Hey, Hez. I'll bus my partner for you.

Unvote
VOTE: MoI

And if my partner flips town, I don't think I need to tell you who I'll be tunneling tomorrow.

Attention all Town players

– note that Muffin is ‘setting up lynches’ right here but the two players who have made this a strong part of their case on me say nothing about it.

Yup, that’s right – Hez and Having don’t say “Muffin is scum for setting up lynches”. The hop right on board.

Scumtastic.

How can you have a null read, 3 town reads and 3 scum reads. That is so disingenuous. Holy crap I'm liking the idea of a MoI-Regfan team more and more.

Um, whut? This is just plain bad. Ostensibly Regfan who ‘knows he’s Town’ should have 3 Town reads. There are 4 Town players left in the game.

You forget that being part of the Mafia Muffin?

--

Let me state ahead of time, that I do not follow, nor will I acknowledge VCA's, or NKA's, nor will I make any responses to anyone who posted anything directed at me in them.

So you are just going to ignore whatever you convienantly don’t like. Noted.

Yeah I'm actually pretty excited. I think this will be another town win under my belt!

For the record, you may have to wait a bit for it though. Reading a book, eating lunch, and then I might get back to the final post.

Hmmm … that’s funny because a single lynch doesn’t accomplish the bolded since there are 4 scum remaining. Appealing to your ‘Towniness’? Scumtastic.

--

@MoI...I based my comments of your VCA on the comments you made. Show me one definite stance you made in your conclusions. And by definite stance...I mean not a this or that deduction.

I just gave you this. Feel free to refer back to my list and ignore it again.

I find it very suspect that you spend another wallpost critiquing (sp?) the person you are vointg and one of your top suspects (Hez) and then vote for the leading wagon. It looks like self preservation FMPOV.

1. Hard for me to attack Neil when he hasn’t posted ANY content since before I started V/LA. Scummy point 1 for you.
2. Self preservation? That’s absurd. When I voted Neil to L-1 I had a single vote. Scummy point 2 for you.

I have you and DK as my top suspects and neil and zMM a distant 3rd and 4th. The fact zMM is voting you and neil is leaning that way has me very interested in your flip (sans a DK flip) and as my DK vote is going nowhere, I'll move to my #2.

Of course you are interested in my flip. I’m not your partner

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh look, Having himself doesn't even consider for a moment that I could be possibly Town.

He just wants one of his biggest detractors out of the way.

Scumtastic.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Townies - Note for the record -

Having and Hez specifically dodged addressing their blatant inconsistency on the scuminess of setting up lynches. Yup ... its not a real scum-tell if it isn't applicable to all who use it.

Scumtastic.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I've been on Muffin all day.

Have you not been paying attention?

I've noticed you said NOT ONE WORD about him setting up lynches. It was a cardinal sin for me ... but I don't expect you to be consistent when you aren't really scum-hunting.

Funny that your 'partner' pick for me ends up on my wagon.

Even funnier still that despite all the 'suspicion' you've shown for him I don't really recall your vote ever landing on him. I'll have to re-look at your ISO but my memory at this point said you've given tons of lip service to a Muffin lynch but never really actually pushed it.

It's ok Hez. Scum have to do whatever they can to win.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have voted for Muffin. I can confidently say that without looking.

I'm not voting for him for "setting up lynches" though. That's why I'm voting for YOU.

Yeah I looked at your ISO. You very briefly threw down a Muffin vote when there was no momentum for a Muffin lynch.

That said I don't think it is likely you can be Wolf partners with him so its Null and not really worth pursuing.

But this comment is why every fiber of my gut is screaming you have to be scum and thus a Wolf. Because I can't see any sort of Town play being so scummily inconsistent in what they consider scummy.

Maybe you are just that bad a Town player but I just can't wrap my mind around it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'M DEAD!

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'M STILL DEAD!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ah look, Surprise surprise surprise Having was a Werewolf. Shocker. Note to the future Having - if you ever are scum in a game I'm playing again you had better pray you get stupid Town to work with you like Hez and DK. You were quite obv from the second you replaced in.

Town played HORRIBLE this game. All the way around.

Reg played the best scum game. He was the only player of the 4 remaining scum I didn't identify in my post lynch PM to Umbrage.

Great game Umbrage

- smooth GMing and good flavor for an open game.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MoI...wow. Poor sport much? You were really full of yourself this game and the sourgrapes don't become you.

You didn't have any case on me "the second" I replaced in. My defense of your weak accusations was legitimate as were my accusations towards you. I did think you could have been scum and the fact the majority of your townmates voted for you bears that out.

Regarding "stupid Town," maybe town would have fared better if you hadn't been a driving force behind the mislynch of Twistedspoon and the outing of your Seer.

As for playing with me again when I am scum, I don't need "stupid Town" to deal with you. Your suspicions were based on another player [Sloth] and you helped me enough on your own..

Meh. You were pretty obvious scum. I made it clear in our arguments back and forth that you were faking scum-hunting. Your accusations were clearly weak. Had Hez not been 'Cheerleader Number 1' for you because he had total Pants on Head reads and buddied right up to you I'm fairly sure you would have taken the Noose Day 3.

Call it sour grapes all you want. I don't really particularly care that I lost. My assessment of your play was sound and correct.