Open 295 -- Island Paradise Mafia -- Game Over

[Jora]

Orrrr female (quite ugly one) . Eek!

[Nobody Special]

DeathRowKitty has been prodded. Second prod, 24 hours to respond.

cjdrum is being replaced, unless he gets in here and posts before I find a replacement. I have sent him a PM to this effect.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.09

(unchanged)

DeathRowKitty - 3 - havingfitz, Sundy, }|{opa
ToastyToast - 2 - ZeroFang, yabbaguy
cjdrum - 1 - ToastyToast
ZeroFang - 1 - farside22

Not Voting: DeathRowKitty, cjdrum

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: May 9.

V/LA: havingfitz through Wednesday May 4

[Nobody Special]

ChannelDelibird replaces cjdrum effective immediately.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi everyone. I'll be reading up tomorrow and let you know my thoughts.

[DeathRowKitty]

My other personality never got around to posting here, so I guess I'll just do it.



I went back and iso'd cjdrum to see if he was actually scummy. I assume that I'm not allowed to use gut at this point, so I'll actually try to give some sort of reasoning this time:

cjdrum has spent most of the game sitting around and waiting for excuses to throw half-hearted votes down, usually with a bit of awkwardly weak reasoning, followed by some more weak reasoning to unvote or to change votes. Let's see if I can highlight some of the important posts here. I'll try to be a bit conservative on what I point out to avoid having to resort to "It just seems scummy.":

Post 21 - This was in response to my asking why people were still casting random votes. Compare this response to TT's in the previous post. TT assumed it was just a difference of opinion, explained his position calmly, and moved on. cj assume he was doing something wrong (why?) and just immediately backed off of his vote, thinking the RVS was over, without looking to do anything productive (including responding to what I actually said). This is the first example of a pattern that develops over cj's posts: waiting for other people to bring things up and then following them for as long as they're in style.
Post 173 - This (along with post 172 giving his reasons) is the first time he's expressed suspicions of someone. Interesting enough, it's for the person that just voted him. Followed up by a vote 3 posts later
Post 187 - Asks why people aren't voting me, despite expressing suspicion. Weird in a couple of ways. For one thing, only one player (HavingFitz) actually expressed suspicion of me since cj's previous post. What's really strange about it though to me is that "Why aren't people voting Player X?" seems like something a player would ask if they were suspicious of Player X, but cj hadn't expressed any suspicion of me. It's as if he just wants people to suspect someone else (For what purpose? I don't know.) Further evidence of this is in "I guess it's because there are more scummy people, but everybody is on an even playing field except for them (and farside, and fitz)," which really just looks like him trying to spread suspicion.
Post 226 - He votes farside for...keeping a level head? From this post, "

No one

keeps a calm and level head at that stage... Unless they were constantly Previewing and checking how scummy they sounded with their outburst!" This is simply a ridiculous generalization. It looks like a case of "farside did this and I want to vote her, so this must be scummy" as opposed to "farside did this scummy thing and is therefore scummy."
Post 232 - A couple of people told him they disagreed and he suddenly just completely turns around with no more reasoning than ""I see what you mean." What happened to his underlined "no one" keeping a calm and level head? Did that go away when his vote didn't stick?
Post 240 - Call me a skeptic, but did he really not know the daykill was faked in an open game with no daykilling roles? Better yet, farside was the player he'd most recently suspected. If he really thought farside's daykill was real, I would expect him to have something to say about it.
Post 263 - He apparently still thinks one of farside and HF is scum, yet he's unvoted farside and barely mentioned HF.
Post 318 - This post is really out-of-place with his previous several posts. He's suddenly stopped mentioning the farside/HF ordeal (despite thinking one of them is scum) and now decides to pressure a lurker.
Post 321 - So his excuse for not going after farside or HF is that they have their town moments and their scummy moments and no conclusions can be drawn about them...yes he's also said he thinks one of them should be scum? Interesting. Also interesting that most of his defense here boils down to "You did the same thing, so you're not allowed to call me out on it."
Post 377 - "I'll throw a vote down if enough of you tell me to that I don't have to take responsibility for it!" I'm also really confused where his ZF suspicion is coming from in the first place. As far as I can tell, it's just him latching onto the biggest suspect at the time.
Post 425 - Umm...did he just vote TT for what he believes to be incorrect setup speculation? And what previous suspicion of TT is he talking about? The vote headmitted was OMGUS?
Post 563 - Considering I just voted him for...0 reasoning and then justified it with "The apple told me to!", "I can see a sort of case-ish thing against DRK" just doesn't make sense. I would expect him to either think I was scummy for a ridiculously shady vote or not think I was scummy for a ridiculously shady vote, not be looking for cases others have made against me. Seems like one of those "I'll leave my options open to this without having to commit to it" kinds of things.

Vote: cjdrum

Fun. And I even timed it so badly he replaced out before I posted it. Lovely.

---

@Sundy
I do not recall correcting you as to my gender.

[farside22]

unvote:
Vote: cjdrum

I rarely admit to much of anything, but even I have to say that case was well thought out and put together in total town fashion.

[Jora]

Hell no.

I don't like case on cjdrum. Most of comments which DRK represent as a scumtells are actually

1) towntells in my eyes (like Post 21, Post 226 & Post 232, Post 318, Post 321 ).
2) misreps (like Post 263, like when DRK talking about admitting OMGUS in Post 425 he refering to Post #265 (!))
3)null tells - many of them.
4)and some scum tells are not really strong in the considered context (like Post 187 - yes, "more scummy people" and spreading suspicious generally are scumtells, but look at it closer - I really don't find this scummy)

This is the second time I see DRK's wall of bullshit-case. The first one was about me, so I very sceptical about the second. However, this particular catch-up should be taken into account. I still thinking there is something town in DRK, despite our disagreement with regards to cjdrum. May be he just kinda tunnelled on cj. I don't think that he spend an equal time considering someone another (like TT).

UNVOTE:

Yes, I'm too lazy to make a post-by-post analisis. I really hate all post-by-post analisis, but I have some indirect evidences (level of activity, reactions and some TT's posts which I had commented earlier) and more important: THE GUT FEELING!!!

VOTE: ToastyToast

[ToastyToast]

making a case does not equal tunnelling. You haven't considered cjdrum, its the same thing. And your 1) im in disagreement with.

[havingfitz]

Just realized I hadn't posted since my v/LA. Nothing to say atm. Will do a refresh and see if anything changes my opinion on DRK.

[ChannelDelibird]

Some stuff came up that stopped me from reading the thread immediately. I'm wading into it now, will have thoughts for you within 18 hours.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.10

ChannelDelibird - 3 - ToastyToast, DeathRowKitty, farside22
ToastyToast - 3 - ZeroFang, yabbaguy, }|{opa
DeathRowKitty - 2 - havingfitz, Sundy

Not Voting: ChannelDelibird

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: May 9.

V/LA: ...

yabbaguy and Sundy have been prodded.

Deadline is roughly FOUR DAYS from now.

[yabbaguy]

WHAT THE FUCK I GOT PRODDED? :'(

So much for that untarnished record. I'm swarmed tonight, but realizing the deadline warning, I'll have something tomorrow.

[Nobody Special]

ZeroFang has been prodded.

[farside22]

Jora: I recall you didn't really comment about my VI comment towards cdj and why I feel that way about him. Can you tell me what your read on him is and how you come to that conclusion?

[farside22]

I have one more question for Jora. On reread I notice you were paying attention to those that lurked, what is your view on ZF and Sundy (I feel those 2 have said the least in this game thus far).

[ChannelDelibird]

This game is a really, really bad read. Really bad. I've skipped large swathes of it - reading through it all from cover to cover might not be the best way to tackle it. I'm going to look at things player-by-player.

First things first, Jora is obvtown. I don't see mafia or SK making the selfvote he did at the time he did at all.

I'm looking at TT first as his is the largest wagon that isn't on me. This farside post (and you'd better thank me, farside, for linking you, as I noticed you said you hated people who just give post numbers, which is how I usually do it ;_;) makes an interesting catch on the reasons for TT's cjdrum vote early game and how his portrayal of those reasons has differed. So that's an interesting place to start.

The claim immediately after that has got me thinking about what mafia would want to claim today if under pressure. I've not thought too much about the setup probabilities (that's not really my thing), so correct me if I'm wrong here, but I can't help feeling like mafia would want to claim doctor today after the no-kill, to try and draw out a counterclaim or tell (or, indeed, not, and then get away with it). But then I haven't played with TT before and so am not sure how likely he is to have come to the same conclusions as me - but as it is, I am inclined to see the vanilla claim as a slight town tell.

Oh, while I'm thinking about it, DRK is prolly town, too, that was one of the only things I got out of the first few pages of Day 1.

Will go over TT in a bit more depth next, but my gut feeling from the last few pages is leaning scum despite the claim. He's been noticeably quieter since his claim and it could be that he's laying low to see if the DRK wagon or my wagon took off instead.

[havingfitz]

My internet service is down for an unknown amount of time. v/LA until I can post without going to local wifi spots.

[Nobody Special]

In just under three hours, I'll be searching for a replacement for DRK.

Sigh.

[DeathRowKitty]

I'm here. There just wasn't much to post about as of this morning....(blah blah, I'll respond to stuff later).

[Jora]

farside22, I found your reasons to call cj a VI to be quite satisfying. I had asked because I was courious (not suspicious). Cj's play was good for a newbie imo. Nevermind.

Sundy and ZF? I think i need to go back and re-read. In short (with looking only to my outdated remarks): I think sundy is town, ZF is a plausible scum. I need to sleep, also I will be very busy in May. Hopefully I will get here to post my last reads.

[ToastyToast]

@CD: uhh im not laying low, I think DRK is town and I think you are scum. I have nothing else to say atm because no one else seems to have anything to say. I can't post content if there's nothing to post on. Not to mention this week=finals week.

Could you point exactly what the problem with my "portrayal" of early game vote reasons is? Its D2, there is SOME new content, and I found his reasons for voting me to be poor. Also, look at his portrayal of myself in early game. Is he still voting me because of MY reasons for voting him early game? I would say no, and thus our thought process is fairly similar.

[yabbaguy]

Well at this point, inactivity can't be considered a scumtell at all.

I still consider:

cjdrum/CDB to be a terrible wagon
DRK to be a complacency wagon.
Toast to be the good wagon.

Preferences, everyone? We need to set priorities in order to get a wagon assembled by deadline. Although my mind is spinning in all the mass absences we've had in the game.

[ChannelDelibird]

Of those three, from my POV, Toast is the only choice. I still have to read him fully and some other options, but if it's a straight choice between those three wagons then it really isn't a choice.

[Nobody Special]

ZeroFang has requested replacement.

Searching....