Mini 1166: Town Hall Mafia (GAME OVER)

[iamausername]

/confirm.

VOTE: sAbLLimINal

Clearly trying to communicate secret messages there, and you know who needs to communicate in secret? That's right, the mafia.

[iamausername]

Who hasn't received a vote yet?

VOTE: EmpTyger

Good, my vote is in the right place.

who are your mates?

C-Worl is my strongest town read at this time.

[iamausername]

@IAAUN, any particular reason for that town read. I won't argue it (since I am town) I'm just curious what warranted it.

Let me answer your question with a question. How many players are there in this game?

[iamausername]

Oh I get it. I asked kuz who his mates are. As in plural. Therefore IAAUN sees that I already think their could be 3 or more on the scum team. He asks me how many players are in the game because he's certain that there are only 2 scum in a 9 person game. Therefore he characterizes my ignorance as a towntell.

Did I get it right IAAUN?

Exactly right, yeah.

WRT IIAUS: I find it weird he had to specifically note that he was not claiming Doc/Cop.

Just noticed this one too. th3kuzinator is not scum with sAbLLimINal. (Or me, but I knew that one already.)

[iamausername]

Are you scum with other people?

No, but I don't have overwhelming evidence to prove it in any other case.

[iamausername]

@iam: does it bother you that kuz realized what gave you the town tell on him?

Rhinox wants me to declare that he is not scum with th3kuzinator or C-Worl, but that's not happening.

To answer your question, no. If anything it makes me feel even better about him, because the fact that he has taken the effort to think about why I declared him town suggests he was genuinely suspicious of my motives for doing so.

Unvote

VOTE: th3kuzinator

He seems upset that I have identified a townie so soon.

[iamausername]

an L-1 wagon so early in the game based mainly on over defensiveness and aggression isn't a great case in my opinion

That's not what it's based on.

I think his attempts at "underminding a town read" is more a desperate newbtown tactic, as opposed to something inherently scummy.

what does this even mean

"a desperate newbtown tactic"

Why is he desperate? What is this 'tactic' designed to achieve?

[iamausername]

This is a horrible reason to put kuz at L-1. Even if that is the best point in the game, its not a L-1 worthy point. Especially because I see the same reasoning regarding iam/cworl as he does. He may have picked the wrong choice of words to express the point, but its sound logic.

First sentence makes no sense. If it's the best point in the game, then of course it's an L-1 worthy point.

Last sentence is also wrong. It's not sound logic. People discredit these kind of 'townslips' all the time, on the basis that "scum could fake it", but have you ever actually seen any scum player do that? I know I haven't.

He's desperate because basically his wagon built up speed very quickly.

This doesn't explain how something he did

before

his wagon built up speed was a 'desperate newbtown tactic'.

Also, why are you voting for me when it seems like you have more of an issue with ThAd?

Talking about behavior...
Note that since kuz has been at -1:
- he hasn't claimed, even though he has posted and therefore has had a chance to do so.
- other than the one post he has basically stopped posting. This is particularly odd as during the first few days of this game he was involved in a flurry of posts.

I actually agree with Fishy on this one; as things stand, there's no reason that kuz should have claimed. He was at L-1, but no one has indicated a willingness to drop the hammer vote, as far as I remember. I mean, I'd prefer it if someone did, because he's scum, but until that happens, he shouldn't claim.

Second point is entirely accurate, and telling, though.

[iamausername]

I actually agree with Fishy on this one; as things stand, there's no reason that kuz should have claimed. He was at L-1, but no one has indicated a willingness to drop the hammer vote, as far as I remember. I mean, I'd prefer it if someone did, because he's scum, but until that happens, he shouldn't claim.

So you're saying that it's better to kill him instead of waiting for him to claim? That doesn't really help us much at all.

No, I'm not saying that at all.

- He should not claim until he is at L-1 AND someone who is not already voting him indicates a willingness to do so.
- This has not happened yet.
- I would like this to happen, because I think he is scum.

That's what I was saying.

The issue I took was that c-worl figured it out

on his own

. Makes me think its plausible he could be clever enough to plan that sort of a town slip.

This is plainly ridiculous. If he was deliberately playing dumb, why on earth would he tell us that he'd figured out what I was getting at?

You're saying that C-Worl, being a devious scummy type, deliberately pretended to think there were more scum than he knew that there actually are, in order to make people think he was town due to ignorance. Then, when his plan succeeds, and someone actually does declare him town due to his ignorance, he first pretends not to know what they are talking about, and asks them to explain, but then explains it himself, because what, he got bored of waiting?

Let me ask you a simple, direct question; do you think C-Worl is scum?

Looking at kuz's reaction here, he posted to argue a point (on which he was wrong), called his wagon "so freaking scummy", and then hasn't posted again. Can someone explain how any of that's a scumtell?

Well, calling his entire wagon "so freaking scummy" instead of trying to identify the particular individuals on the wagon who are scum strikes me as pretty scummy.

For the people voting ThAdmiral, I want to note that I was recently in a game with him where he was town, and he hammered two players within the first eight pages of the game without waiting or even asking for a claim, and I would like to know if this information has any effect on your reads here.

[iamausername]

here

[iamausername]

Yeah, can we not do this? C-Worl is town, ThAd is town, let's all rewind a little and notice how Archaist's catch-up post was a whole lot of words that said absolutely nothing and lynch him instead.

[iamausername]

I'd love it a lot more if I had the power to make anyone else vote for him!

[iamausername]

Everyone who voted for me is scum

[iamausername]

iama:
Assuming Archaist to be guilty, who do you think his partner might be?

Most likely Rhinox. If not him, I suppose by process of elimination it would have to be you.

[iamausername]

I am going to be V/LA until Tuesday

Sorry bout that.

Noted. I'll try to give you a chance to pop in before I close D1

[iamausername]

iama:
How did you process-of-eliminate sAb?

See here. kuz confused sAb with me, ergo he is not scum with sAb.

Why do you ask me this, and not why I'm process of eliminating Mitsuru?

iama:
C-Worl is looking really bad, yet I'm having trouble seeing him partnered with anyone besides you. Yet I could see you partnered with a lot of people.

Why are you telling me this?

(And iama's initial read on C-Worl is nullified. Because at this point C-Worl's been explicitly told that there is no 3-person mafia, yet he's nevertheless spouting a theory of a Archaist/MK/Tyger mafia. If he can feign ignorance of the size of the antitown group now, he could at the start of the game just as easily.)

Makes sense, but I still don't see scum feigning ignorance to look town, waiting for someone to call it a town tell, and then dropping the act to explain the town tell instead of waiting for me to do it. I'm applying both Occam's and Hanlon's Razors and declaring C-Worl still town.

So, for the sake of posterity, if we're not going to lynch Archaist like we obviously should, my preference for lynches goes ThAd > MK > C-Worl. Well, of the lynches that have any chance of happening, that is. I'd much rather lynch Rhinox than any of them.

[iamausername]

Now, while we're on the subject of feiging ignorance, can someone explain the progression of Archaist's posts on page 7/8?

I declare C-Worl and ThAd to be town and he says this:

If you're going to name people town or scum it would be helpful to give some reasons first. You sound really sure of yourself, too sure for it to be just a gut feeling.

C-Worl calls him out for not reading the thread properly, since my reason for declaring C-Worl town has been a pretty big talking point, and he argues with C-Worl about it for a while, insisting that I never gave any explanation for my read.

But then in the middle of this argument, he makes a big post giving reads on every player (Are they voting for me? scum. Have they ever voted me, or given the impression that they might? neutral. Everyone else? town.), and in it, he says this:

iamausername: Had a town read on C-Worl for

one line

(#39).

...but then he goes right back to arguing with C-Worl about how I never explained my town read at all. What the hell?

[iamausername]

Don't worry guys, I got this.

Been busy this weekend, but I'll have plenty of time tomorrow to ferret out that other scumbag.

[iamausername]

VOTE: Fishythefish

Rhinox is town because C-Worl died and not me.
sAb is town for reasons I mentioned yesterday, and those mentioned by Emp today.
Emp is town for mentioning them.
I don't think I need to explain why ThAd is town.

So, Fishy.

[iamausername]

iama:
I don't follow the point about Rhinox, or are you just being devious?

I managed to get kuz/Archaist lynched yesterday almost single handedly by browbeating enough townies to go along with me, and I listed Rhinox as the most likely partner. By contrast, one of the last things C-Worl said was "Rhinox is town".

I am obvtown after yesterday, so killing me would not implicate Rhinox in any way. I have demonstrated a stubborn refusal to let go of my top suspect, and the ability to get them lynched. Rhinox would have every reason to believe that a) I would come into this day after his blood, and b) I have the power to exert my will upon this town. No way he kills anyone but me.

[iamausername]

K.

Unvote

VOTE: ThAdmiral

[iamausername]

The fact that he was the major counterwagon of the day was absolutely nothing to do with kuz/Archaist, who was at all times a lot more interested in pushing a counter-counterwagon on C-Worl, and in fact never voted ThAd, even when it was clear that one of the two of them was definitely going to be lynched.

[iamausername]

There are a lot of other factors that might have affected he nightkill: off the top of my head, ignorance of the second kill, protection concerns, powerrole hunting.  Why are you so certain that the reasoning you cited to clear Rhinox was the nightkill's motivation?   

I don't see how the first is remotely relevant, and I don't believe Rhinox is the type to base his kills around power role speculation, especially in this situation.

I'm tempted just to go along with fishy's lead because we basically have a confirmed town member. I'd rather go along with someone leading the lynch like fishy instead of someone like iam, who although took on the leadership role, iam is not "confirmed" like fishy is.

Being town is not the same as being right. It's best not to blindly follow anyone, regardless of how confirmed they are; is Fishy makes a flawed argument against someone, you can trust that he has no malicious intent in doing so, but it doens't make the argument any less flawed.

Case in point; right now he appears to be leaning towards you as the scum. Would you still rather follow his lead than mine?

[iamausername]

Because it was freakin' obvious.

[iamausername]

Well of course you wouldn't like it.

[iamausername]

Why didn't you have any problem with me taking most of the credit for the Archaist lynch before I voted for you?

[iamausername]

ThAd/iama:
Can either of you explain how kuz/Archaist's play makes sense with the other of you as partner?

kuz apparently ragequit when he got put to L-1 for what he obviously preceived to be poor reasons. I don't think it's difficult to see how his own partner being involved in that wagon would exacerbate that feeling.

Towards the end of the day, Archaist was the leading wagon, with his vote sitting alone on C-Worl. He could have switched his vote to Mitsuro to bring that wagon up to three votes, equalling his own, but instead specifically spoke out against this wagon, presumably to create a false connection between the two of them, and to appear consistent, since he'd listed Mitsuro as a town read earlier.
He could also have switched his vote to ThAd to bring THAT wagon up to three votes, equalling his own, but instead he... doesn't acknowledge this possibility at all. Even though he'd earlier listed ThAd as a scum read.

Now how about you explain how Archaist's behaviour at the end of the day makes sense with

Rhinox

as the partner?

[iamausername]

ThAd, what is your point, exactly? You were surprised that I turned on you rather than anyone else when Fishy confirmed himself as town, because you were under the impression that I had a stronger town read on you than anyone else, yes?

So?

What do we lose if iama, ThAd, and sAb claim today? If nothing, then... why don't we?

Am I missing some reason for having the three of us in particular claim, rather than everyone?

[iamausername]

post.

It doesn't seem like this day is progressing towards anything but a Rhinox lynch, and I guess he's the one I'm most likely to have wrongly cleared anyway, so.

I don't know, some time in the next few days I'm going to try to find the time to make a single post laying out in full exactly why I think ThAd is our scum. But since it'll probably be mostly reiterating things I've already said, I can't imagine it being particularly likely to change anyone's minds.

[iamausername]

Random thought: I would like to strongly discourage Fishy from shooting EmpTyger. The fact that he is pretty much trying to goad you into doing it means one of two things:

a) he's town, who genuinely believes his death at your hands will ultimately improve our chances of victory
b) he's scum who has no reason to fear being shot, due to immunity/blocking ability

Now, I think the first is vastly more likely, but the point is it doesn't matter how likely you think either scenario is; either way, shooting him is a bad idea.

[iamausername]

Why does everyone think ThAd is town? Well, because if he was scum, he must have bussed hard yesterday. Right.

I don't have trouble believing that he would do this. More specifically, I don't have trouble believing that he would put his partner to L-1 very early on D1, knowing that it would result in these kind of reactions:

I won't be hammering right now since I feel that this wagon has been leaped on much too quickly. People seem to be jumping on one post because of over defensiveness, and since I was lynched early game the first time I played a game on here because I was over defensive, I'm immediately wary of the whole reasoning behind this wagon. It seems to be mostly comprised of people leaping onto the wagon.

This is a horrible reason to put kuz at L-1. Even if that is the best point in the game, its not a L-1 worthy point.

and figuring that the wagon would dissolve pretty quickly. Having done this, he locked himself into sticking with that vote when the wagon actually didn't dissolve. Though he certainly tried to get away when C-Worl presented an opportunity.

There's also the fact that Archaist seemed to be angling for a No Lynch when he could easily have achieved a ThAd lynch. I don't see that "Archaist is scum" is a reasonable explanation for that behaviour in and of itself; I don't think he had the experience to realise that No Lynch is actually a better result for scum than a town lynch, because that's not very intuitive.

There's also ThAd's horrible, horrible reaction when I voted him today. First he made a really clumsy attempt at accusing me of a scum-slip for knowing scum shot C-Worl, then suggested that me going back on my town read after Fishy's claim was a scummy contradiction, when I'd called everyone but Fishy town in that post, thus requiring that I changed my mind about one of them.

That fits as scum behaviour for me a lot more than any of Emp, Rhinox or sAb.

---

iama:
Then persuade Fishy to vigkill a different target. Persuade him to vigkill Rhinox tonight. Or even persuade him to lynch me today and vigkill sAb tonight, provided that you all promise to lynch Rhinox tomorrow if the game goes to 3-person endgame. I don't care. I just want there to be as few ways for Rhinox to slink away tomorrow, despite Fishy doing everything he can to keep Rhinox's options open. I can't get through to him and I don't know what else I can try.

I'm trying to persuade him to shoot someone else. Pointing out why shooting you is a bad idea IS persuading him to shoot someone else. I'm not going to try to persuade him to shoot Rhinox, because I think he's right about Rhinox.

or c) he's scum, trying to appear to be a) or b) so as to persuade fishy to not shoot him per your reasoning
or d) he's a scum RB and knows fishy is getting blocked no matter who he tries to shoot
or etc.

d) was already covered in b). It renders Fishy's choice utterly irrelevant, so we might as well ignore it.
c) is pointless fearmongering of the exact same brand that said C-Worl could have been scum feigning ignorance on D1. scumTyger does not dare Fishy to shoot him in an attempted double bluff, particularly not when Fishy hadn't given any particular indication that he had any intention of shooting EmpTyger before he started doing this.

ScumTyger also doesn't get this gung-ho about killing Rhinox and only Rhinox, but that's neither here nor there.

2 days until deadline. We need a lynch. Everyone should be voting at this stage, and given the general thinking they should probably be voting for either Rhinox or sAb.

Yeah.

Unvote

VOTE: sAbLLimINal

After Fishy's Post #349, I no longer think Rhinox is the one I'm most likely to have wrongly cleared. Still think it's ThAd, but that ain't happening today.

[iamausername]

Yeah. Anyone care who goes first?

[iamausername]

iama:
You set the order and go last?

If everyone else is happy with this, then

ThAd -> Rhinox -> Emp -> me.

[iamausername]

And one more vanilla. Kinda figured it would go like that.

Do you think there's any worth in a no lynch at this stage?

[iamausername]

iama:
At end of D2 you were thinking ThAd. Has this changed?

No, but I'm intending to reread everything probably tomorrow, and I'll try to keep an open mind. So, we'll see.

[iamausername]

hmm.

Rhinox, why would ThAd kill Emp after a no lynch? Why would Emp kill ThAd?

[iamausername]

hmm.

Rhinox, why would ThAd kill Emp after a no lynch? Why would Emp kill ThAd?

Or I guess "why would either of them kill you?" if you prefer.

[iamausername]

I could spout out a few guesses at specific reasons but that wouldn't really help very much. Its all pretty moot at this point anyways since bringing attention to the ramifications of a hypothetical nk choice after a no lynch pretty much means that we won't get any useful info out of the nk anyways. So I'm with ThAd we might as well just lynch today.

It would help me. I'm not asking to aid me in deciding whether to vote no lynch today, I'm asking to aid me in deciding whether to vote for you today. Because from where I stand, it seems like if you are town, it should be extremely clear that I am the obvious nightkill. Unless you think I'm scum, of course, but apparently you don't, so... I need to see some justification for how you can think anyone else would die if we no lynched.

btw, I don't see myself voting EmpTyger today under any circumstances.

[iamausername]

While he's doing that you should summarize everything you've said about emp being scum, including all his alleged misreps.

You must know I also want to lynch you today, but I promise to keep an open mind and read your case.

Have you read his case now? What did you think?

[iamausername]

I would like to not be replaced.

I'll try to put more effort into this game soon, it's somewhat overdue, I guess.

[iamausername]

I can't imagine iama objecting to your rejoining based on his own near miss

Yes, in case it needs to be stated, I would certainly have no objection to Rhinox remaining in the game.

For the record, if Rhinox does not return to his role, I am against the plan of speedlynching his slot to save jilynne the inconvenience of reading up, because, cards on the table, I still really think ThAd is the scum here.

[iamausername]

Count on it.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER ONE

Let's take a good look at t3hkuzinator's posts. He wears his heart on his sarcastic, arrogant sleeve, and as such is by far easier to read than anyone else in this game has been. His responses to the formation of the wagon on him are extremely telling.

Reaction to C-Worl's vote:

Oh really? That's cute that you are trying to look pro-town by telling me that I should learn from playing on here long enough. Ill get back to you on that when I finish my first game on here.

It also amuses me that you are accusing me of fluff considering your 22 is about as devoid of content as it comes. You didn't need to tell me your personal history nor do you need to inform me of the skill level required, but you did anyway. As for the last bit, please continue guessing at the intent behind my posts. You're really making headway.

He's sarcastic and dismissive. He assumes himself to be above C-Worl, and does not consider his vote to be a threat. This is useful as a control group for his reactions to townies voting for him, as we know C-Worl's alignment, of course.

Reaction to Rhinox's vote:

@Rhinox: Overdefensive? It's called I don't let anyone try to take advantage of me. I am known throughout smashboards for doing town gambits. It's just what I like to do because it makes the game more enjoyable/exciting for me. Since this is my first game on the site, I wanted to hear the site-specific view of it. Why you both are assuming malicious intent behind the question is beyond me. Also, Iama has a town read on Cworl and his phrasing, not me.

@Iama: Are you honestly clearing CWorl from saying the word scummates instead of scummate? You do realize any half decent scum player could consciously on unconsciously throw that in? What bothers me more is that CWorl actually picked up on where you were going with it before you explained it.

There's other key stuff here too, but first, the Rhinox vote. kuz obviously feels a little more threatened here, and his reaction is a little less dismissive, but it still bears a lot of similarities. He addresses Rhinox directly with a self-aggrandizing paragraph, and is highly defensive and confrontational.

Furthermore, his "Why you both are assuming malicious intent behind the question is beyond me." is telling; he perceives the attacks on him as a united front, not as two separate and distinct events. This suggests that there is no difference in the motivation of the two of them in his mind.

Then we have his obvious upset at my pinning C-Worl as town for what he percieved to be invalid reasons. He makes no attempt to disguise his emotions here or anywhere else, and that was his downfall on D1, and I hope it will ultimately prove to be the downfall of his partner too.

Reaction to my vote:

Why do people keep assuming I am upset? lol. Apparently any type of aggressive posting is taken as a sign of being butthurt. It's my playstyle, get over it.

@Rhinox: Or I could have just asked about it in thread, which was much easier.

@IAAUN: Someone had put effort into thinking about something? Must be a town-tell.

Again, sarcastic and dismissive, "it's my playstyle, get over it". That basically sums up his response to all three votes so far.

Reaction to ThAd's vote:

@Emp: What? I was asking the question to get a general feel for the site. My playstyle had nothing to do with the question.

@Admiral and IAAUS: Show me where I was upset. You're blowing my posts way out of proportion.

The wagon on me is so freaking scummy and agreed with Mitsuru that Admiral's vote was flat out disgusting.

followed by flaking entirely from the game and the site.

Here we see t3hkuzinator throwing his toys out of the pram. There's no dismissive "it's my playstyle, get over it" attitude here. Instead we get emotive language like 'so freaking scummy' and 'flat out disgusting'. He's very clearly moved from being mildly irritated to being genuinely upset, and it is my firm belief that the most, maybe even the only likely explanation for this sudden mood swing is that the one person he thought he could rely on had turned on him too.

More to come...

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER TWO

I believe two things are true:

1. scum is far more likely to call people scum, and far less likely to call people town

2. generally when someone has a town tell on someone else they shouldn't be attacked for it for the reasons we have already talked about

ThAd doing a little self-reflection here. Clearly, if he believes this is a universal truth, then it must be true of his own scumplay, no? Wanna guess how often ThAd calls people town, and how often he calls people scum? The answer may surprise you.

I mean, given that the key point of my - and therefore also ThAd's - case against kuz was that he was upset that I correctly identified C-Worl as town, you'd assume that somewhere in ThAd's posts, you would find some declaration that C-Worl is town. But you'd be wrong. He talks around the subject for a long stretch by discussing town reads in the abstract, but never actually gives an opinion on C-Worl. That is, until C-Worl made his dumbass vote on ThAd to "get the game moving", at which point ThAd immediately starts calling him scum.

Together, me and Fishy talk him out of that vote and back around to the Archaist (kuz) wagon, but despite agreeing with Fishy's point that C-Worl's behaviour was dumb but not scummy, he continues to suspect C-Worl. This is heavy cognitive dissonance; his case on t3hkuzinator remains centred on the concept that t3hkuzinator displayed upset at C-Worl being identified as town, and yet he also suspects C-Worl? Does not compute.

In fact, ThAd never calls anyone town throughout D1. One of his final posts on D1 says that he would "be willing to move [his] vote to sab, mk or c-worl" at deadline, implying scumreads on the three of them. He opens D2 with a vote on Emp, implying a scumread there too.

Number of people ThAd has called scum up to this point: FIVE
Number of people ThAd has called town: NIL

Again, straight from the horse's mouth:

scum is far more likely to call people scum, and far less likely to call people town

Even when he finally gives his first explicit townread (on me) in this post, he does it at the same time as adding Rhinox to the ever-expanding list of scumreads, and he seemingly reverses his townread on me shortly afterwards when I vote for him. So that's pretty much everyone in the game that he has called scummy at one time or another, while never really commiting to a single town read.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER THREE

Q: Would scum ThAd bus his partner on D1?
A: Yes, he would.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER FOUR

Like with C-Worl on D1, when I voted for ThAd on D2, he responded in a decidedly OMGUSy fashion. First he comes out with this:

@ iama: how did you know the scum killed c-worl before fishy's claim?

lazy and stupid attempt to imply that I knew that scum killed C-Worl, because I am scum. Note also that he doesn't ask this question when I first suggest that scum killed C-Worl, only after I voted for him. If he thought I was displaying knowledge I shouldn't have as town, why did it take me voting for him for this to bother him?

He follows it up with another attack on something that in no way bothered him at the time of posting, only after I voted him, namely me taking credit for the D1 scum lynch (credit which I deserve, btw), because taking credit for scum lynches is scummy
(

Next time guys, just listen to me.

)

and also adds this:

Secondly:
He goes from this...

I don't think I need to explain why ThAd is town.

...to this...

Unvote

VOTE: ThAdmiral

...in 24 hours.

and also this:

Admittedly that's true, but I doubt I'd have liked it much more if your sudden change of heart was directed at anyone else either.

Which, as has been well established, is plainly ridiculous, because I'd just called everybody but Fishy town for one reason or another, and Fishy had just proven himself town with his claim, thus requiring me to have a sudden change of heart on

someone

. After this is pointed out to him, ThAd further embellishes, suggesting that it was the percieved strength of my town read on him being suddenly dropped that bothered him.

The thing that bothers me the most about this whole sequence of events is the follow-through. Or rather, the lack thereof. When no one else bites on his arguments, he realises that I'm not a target he's going to get anywhere pursuing, so he just leaves the accusation hanging, without pressing me further to explain myself. If he genuinely found my turn on him to be scummy, why doesn't he seem to care that I never explained myself on it? No part of this comes off as genuine scumhunting.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER FIVE

I managed to get kuz/Archaist lynched yesterday almost single handedly by browbeating enough townies to go along with me, and I listed Rhinox as the most likely partner. By contrast, one of the last things C-Worl said was "Rhinox is town".

I am obvtown after yesterday, so killing me would not implicate Rhinox in any way. I have demonstrated a stubborn refusal to let go of my top suspect, and the ability to get them lynched. Rhinox would have every reason to believe that a) I would come into this day after his blood, and b) I have the power to exert my will upon this town. No way he kills anyone but me.

Still true.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER SIX

Towards the end of the day, Archaist was the leading wagon, with his vote sitting alone on C-Worl. He could have switched his vote to Mitsuro to bring that wagon up to three votes, equalling his own, but instead specifically spoke out against this wagon, presumably to create a false connection between the two of them, and to appear consistent, since he'd listed Mitsuro as a town read earlier.
He could also have switched his vote to ThAd to bring THAT wagon up to three votes, equalling his own, but instead he... doesn't acknowledge this possibility at all. Even though he'd earlier listed ThAd as a scum read.

Still true.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER SEVEN

1) iam's catch, while significant, was not so overwhelmingly that voting Arch was the only option.
2) If Rhinox had voted ThAd, he would have taken no more heat for it later than anyone else not on the Arch wagon.
3) If Rhinox had not voted, Arch would very likely not have died. If Rhinox had voted ThAd, Arch would very very likely not have died.
I think 3) is beyond doubt - there were only hours to go, and there were two wagons at L-2. Voting either one of them makes it hugely more likely to succeed. The others are obviously matters of judgement, but AFAIC there's just no reason to think that Rhinox was forced to take the only route that didn't mark him as Arch's buddy.

I don't think Rhinox must be innocent. But I think his end of day actions make little sense for scum. When I look at day 1, I see that if Rhinox is scum he killed his partner in a situation where he didn't have to, and was never going to look that good for doing so. iam or ThAd being scum would have had to bus their partner hard; Rhinox being scum would have had to avoid being on the actual wagon, but change his mind at the death then make sure his partner got lynched anyway. All the scum death for little of the distancing power. It's possible that Rhinox decided the evidence against his partner was so overwhelming that a mislynch or a no lynch would inevitably lead to their deaths over the next two days. But I doubt it.

I agree with all of this. In particular, I would like to elaborate further upon point one. The catch in question is found in Post #249; Archaist argued from the apparent belief that I had never explained my town read on C-Worl, yet also said

iamausername: Had a town read on C-Worl for

one line

(#39).

Is this damning enough evidence that scum Rhinox would feel compelled to bus his partner immediately, because he was dead in the water at this point anyway? I don't think so. Archaist knew that I had a town read on C-Worl for one line, but this doesn't mean he knew the reason

why

this one line gave me a town read. There's no actual inconsistency here, and anyone who had an inclination to defend Archaist could easily have spotted this.

So, no, I do not believe that Rhinox was simply bringing about the inevitable. If Rhinox is scum, he made a conscious choice at the very last minute to force a lynch on his partner which almost certainly would not have happened without his involvement. I don't see this as a likely scenario.

[iamausername]

Putting the brakes on my assault for a moment...

Ok, in my mind, the most helpful strategy would be for everyone to list out why they would for if any of 3 people died at night and who they would for right now.

How do you think this will help?

[iamausername]

@ card three: If you want to bring up my scum meta as a point against me that is fine, but in reality if you checked it out properly it would tell an entirely different story.

Certainly possible. I didn't thoroughly check your history as scum. The very first scum game I found showed that there are circumstances in which you would be willing to bus a partner on D1, which is all I was looking for.

While it is true that I have bussed a partner as scum before on day 1 this would be an extremely rare occurrence and I am far, FAR, more likely to not bus. I believe in general bussing is suboptimal play and I more or less only resort to it as a last option.

Whether or not it is an irregular occurance, I think the game I linked pretty emphatically proves that you do not only do it as a last resort.

[iamausername]

For the people still living tomorrow, based on who died, they should be able to figure out whose scum.

How?

This is what Fishy, short-sightedly only seeing at the 3-3 votecount, called the definite opportunity for Rhinox to try for a ThAd lynch. Like a lot of things, Fishy was wrong.

Let's say, hypothetically, that Rhinox did so.
He would have to ignore what was *just* called a "catch of the game".
He would have to vote ThAd, who had just defended Rhinox's position about MK.
But setting those factors aside, even if he does place a 4th vote- who was there to put a 5th vote on ThAd at that point?

Not ThAd, obviously.
Not sAb, MK, or Fishy- they're already voting ThAd.
Not C-Worl or iama- not after they said that about the catch.
Not me- not unless you think that Rhinox would believe that I would ignore iama's catch to follow Rhinox when I was currently arguing a C-Worl/Rhinox theory, had been after Rhinox most of the day, and had vowed to not let up on him D2.
So that left only Archaist.

So best case, Rhinox/Archaist speedlynch ThAd immediately following the "catch of the game" against Archaist, leaving them both hopelessly exposed the following day.
Worst case, they don't even get the speedlynch, with the very real possibility that one of sAb, Fishy, or MK decide to switch to Archaist, leaving Rhinox exposed for going against the catch.

Emp, just because C-Worl called it the 'catch of the game' doesn't mean it actually was. You appear to have completely ignored a major point of card 7; it was not the catch of the game, it was a fairly obviously flawed argument.

Not C-Worl or iama- not after they said that about the catch.

I said no such thing, and even if I had, Rhinox voting ThAd that close to deadline would have forced us into a situation where the only options were ThAd or No Lynch, a situation in which any sensible town player would hammer ThAd, regardless of their opinions.

VOTE: No Lynch

At this point I feel like it may have some benefit.

[iamausername]

Mod: If we no lynch again, and scum no kill again, and we no lynch again, and etc... how would you resolve the stalemate?

I would say scum wins: Town cannot satisfy its win condition continuing no lynch (eradicate all threats), however scum still can without kills. (make up at least half the town) And for balance sake. Town should not win from stalling.

That said: if this day ends in a no lynch or without a majority, scum wins. I think that is reasonably fair considering the circumstances.

Wow, I am a total idiot. I meant to quote this post.

[iamausername]

Fuck it, yeah, that probably is what happened.

VOTE: jilynne

Sorry for drawing this game out so damn long.

[iamausername]

So, would you have no killed anyway, or did you do it entirely because you saw an opportunity to frame jilynne with the fortuitous timing of her mass-flake? Because you got me good with that one.