Mini 1167 - iPod Mafia - Game Over

[GreyICE]

Vote crazypianist1116

I can do this

[GreyICE]

BTW

My genre is "Epic Cover Rock"

I'm wondering based on the two roles we see up there if the scum is non-Rock music.

Or am I totally off base?

[GreyICE]

Unvote

Vote: Fate

Because Raivann is scum and not voting for Fate

[GreyICE]

Well, I am a rock-rap blend so it is possible. Is anyone NOT rock?

Also, can we not flavor speculate on Day 1? Thanks~

I'm honestly just curious if anyone isn't rock.

[GreyICE]

GI, you seriously want to start this game on my scum list?

This isn't a pro town question. At the VERY best it's null. In any case, it shouldn't be answered.

I honestly don't care. I'm curious, and I want it answered.

[GreyICE]

@Grey: I suggest you divert your efforts elsewhere. LLD and I are alignment confirmed masons.

Hmmm? I'm just curious if everyone is Rock or if there's other music genres.

[GreyICE]

I DAYCOPPED YOU AND YOU'RE BLUEGRASS

BLUEGRASS IS CLEARLY SCUM

Vote:Katsuki

Wait, that was actually Raivann because he really is scum.

Vote: Raivann

PEdit: Oh for fucks sake, I asked if anyone was non-rock LLD. It kicks the shit out of RVS, because I hate RVS (oh look, it's working).

Are you non-rock? Or is the town just flavors of Rock?

Pedit2: Glass is a guy.

[GreyICE]

Pedit2: Glass is a guy.

I BLAME THE NUMEROUS APPLETINIS FOR THIS.

Happy birthday!

Appletinis are the devil. Last time I lost about 3 hours

Also, I'm Dream On... by the Glee Cast.

I think MoI needs to start posting in Guys part 2

I don't think so. Anything Neil Patrick Harris is involved with is ... oh, right. Nevermind.

[GreyICE]

Me laughing at this general debate.

Oh and mentioning my name/genre for this name cop (Seriously, how the fuck did my minor throwaway become this ridiculous conflagration)?

I mean you realize we have enough people who haven't posted to make an entire scumteam, right?

[GreyICE]

I'm now confirmed...

























flamboyant!

[GreyICE]

Anyway, didn't we have an excellent Fate wagon going? And look at what he's done since his wagon fell apart. He's made just as many scummy posts after that as he did before it!

Unvote

Vote: Fate

Good wagon is good!

[GreyICE]

I got a PM.

Apparently Fate is lynch immune today, so we have to get a buddy

LLD and I are alignment confirmed masons.

Wait, actually?

YIPPEE

Vote: ThAdmiral

[GreyICE]

ICE, are you trying to bring us back into the RVS? I thought you said you hated it?

No, that'd be a rather serious vote for a rather scummy poster.

[GreyICE]

I'm voting Thad btw

No, you aren't. If I may direct you to the following -

B2) You must Unvote to change your vote. It must also be in bold.

[GreyICE]

Unvote

Vote: Thadmiral

DoubleVote: No Point

[GreyICE]

congratulations on the new tittle MOI
congratulations on being scum Fate

Vote:Fate

I don't get wtf you guys are saying but LLD is obv town. Glass and GreyIce is scummy as hell for the speculation. A bonus for Glass for his reconciling tone.

Unvote.Vote:Glass

AGar, are you playing this game or are you not?

AGar, are you playing this game or are you not?

AGar, are you playing this game or are you not?

AGar, are you playing this game or are you not?

AGar, are you playing this game or are you not?

AGar, are you playing this game or are you not?

lol

Unvote

Vote: NoPoint

[GreyICE]

4 PAGES ALREADY ZOMG WHAT THE FUCK SLOW DOWN YOU SPAMPOSTERS

VOTE: GREYICE

DAMMIT NOOBLAR YOU'RE MOST LIKELY TOWN BECAUSE NEITHER NOPOINT OR THAD COMMENTED ON YOUR L-3 WAGON AND AT LEAST ONE IS SCUM.

SO DO SOMETHING USEFUL WITH THAT VOTE.

[GreyICE]

FATE GI LOOKS BAD AND ALL BUT YOU REALLY SHOULD TAKE A LOOK AT THAT SURYESCUM.

I'm curious.

Why do I look bad?

[GreyICE]

Flavor hunting rather than scumhunting.

And ignoring my dayvig.

Yeah like I haven't seen a fake dayvig on page 2 before

I honestly thought the reactions to the rock stuff would be interesting. Face it. They were.

Hey, it beats the RVS where I claimed scum in the first post then voted for somebody based on me being in a QT with them

[GreyICE]

I've misread glass before
But the game was utter hell. Like... Nacho AND Papa Zito apologized for how bad the game was type of hell. The moderator left the site rather than deal with it hell. CrazyQuestions hell (no hell is quite like that one).
Glass reads town

PEDIT: Fate


Vote no point!

[GreyICE]

FATE

THAT'S SCUM

POSTING RIGHT ABOVE ME

[GreyICE]

There's something in this.
I think glass needs more scrutiny. People are changing their votes too quickly, meaning the scum just have to weather it out in the knowledge that the focus on them will pass.

OH STOP GIVING NOPOINT AND SUYRE POINTERS

ITS WAY TOO OBVIOUS

[GreyICE]

You're claiming scum on page 6? Boring

[GreyICE]

Nah, what's the fun in scumhunting when you're just going to get lazy and give up like this.

I mean it's page 6 and you're reduced to answering accusations that you are offering advice to your scumbuddies with WIFOM about who those buddies are.

[GreyICE]

Surye could be a decent lynch I suppose, but I think NoPoint is just worse.

I'm fairly sure the scumteam is actually getting wagoned at the moment and are just lurking to hope the wagons go away.

[GreyICE]

Honestly Kats, nothing interesting is happening. I've tried. They can't even get a good wagon together for me for 'rolefishing' (because the rock-rap hybrid is clearly... uh...) which I figured would have been rolling full steam.

LLD is always this paranoid about claiming any piece of our roles, so it's neutral, but the rest is just plain scummy.

[GreyICE]

Heres a piece of advice; vote suyreflakescum.

Fine.

Can we lynch NoPoint after? You can't tell me he's town.

Vote: Surye

[GreyICE]

Unvote

Vote: Surye

[GreyICE]

I see NO case on me. I have nothing to respond to, yet I am the biggest wagon? Who's leading all of you? Oh, ALL CAPS POSTS turn you all into sheep.

Well lets see. You voted for me for rolefishing after

your own analysis

concluded that the town wouldn't give up any useful information by giving out what I was asking about. So basically you quoted a bunch of stuff, concluded it wouldn't hurt the town because there is really no discernible connection between genre and roles (which is what I suspected anyway), and then voted me.

Also your commentary on the Fate wagon was loltastic.

And this post is terribad.

[GreyICE]

You'd be surprised how many scum are caught in the early parts of the game.

As for me being scummy... what's the scum motive for pushing a claim that doesn't hurt the town?

[GreyICE]

I won't argue about how much or how little I care about it, since that's a generally silly argument that will get us nowhere.

"I didn't care about it much I wanted to get discussion going and see who would attack me for fishing."
"Well you kept mentioning it!"
"Yeah, because the discussion was just three or four people talking in a circle and I wanted to see exactly who would grab on."
"Well you must care about it a lot then!"
"I care about catching scum a lot..."

And so on and so forth.

I'll just ask this - if genre/song claiming (and I really only was asking genre, specifically types of Rock) isn't bad for the town, why would scum ask about it? If scum don't learn anything, why am I scummy for suggesting it? If there's no scum motive for me doing it... why are you voting for me?

[GreyICE]

It doesn't tell us anything seems to me to be pretty clear that it... doesn't tell us anything.

But pray tell, demonstrate that I'm wrong. Explain what it might tell the scum.

"Dream On" - Epic Cover Rock
Funktastic Rock
Southern Artistic Rock
Rock-Rap Hybrid
"My Soul, Your Beats"

Quick, use your magic and divine something interesting that scum would definitely want to know from this information. If you can figure out concrete information scum would like to have here, then tell me and I'll self-vote and you can lynch me out of the thread.

Because if it doesn't exist, then you're FOSing me based on hypothetical magic.

[GreyICE]

Scum have shared information town does not. The fact that you KNOW this won't help, and won't even entertain the idea, are using it as a crusade against me, and say scummy things like "I'll self-vote" tells me your level of confidence can only come from information. And your push for something you are now running me up the flagpole with in TONS of your posts in this game is all the more scummy. I love my vote right now.

Glass, I'd say GI is probably the most outwardly scummy on my wagon. And he took his time getting on there till I showed some apperent "flaky"ness even though my sig has shown V/LA in Las Vegas all weekend.

So I

know for a fact

that there's no information that you can glean about the roles or powers of the town by which genre of rock they are?

But there also is information I, as scum, can glean from a genre claim?

And I'm scummy for pointing out that you have no reason that you can articulate to think I'm scummy.

Classic.

[GreyICE]

Your inability to articulate what benefit the scum team gains from something that makes me 'definitely scum' is pretty transparent btw.

Honestly, anyone think that a mass genre claim would really do the town any harm?

[GreyICE]

You're voting for me, so you must think that the information is anti-town enough that I, as scum, would be willing to put myself in the spotlight this way and draw attention to myself.

If it's not antitown, then why is your vote on me?

[GreyICE]

Nah. Scum absolutely looooooovvveeee attacking people for random 'anti-town' things. It's so very useful to throw a few out and see who bites. Examples include:

Votes with no reasoning
Votes with 'teehee' reasoning
Roleplaying
Something that doesn't hand out any information, but can be interpreted as role fishing (Genre of music, gender of characters, etc.)

Town tend to react more or less like Glass/LLD - either agree or disagree, but overall evaluate the intent. Scum react much much much more like Surye - "Oh, look, a nice safe scumtell I can park my vote on and do NOTHING ELSE AT ALL."

ThAd, what gave you town vibes about his last post?

[GreyICE]

Because you had me voted first, and while I was V/LA, for inactivity? NICE AND SAFE.

I voted for you today. The inactivity was a part, because I didn't know you were VLA.

Frankly if you'd come back and acted the least bit town, I'd be back on nopoint. You haven't made a damn post since returning that gave me a town vibe.

[GreyICE]

Gravedigger?!

Seriously, a gravedigger, IN A MINI?!

.....................

Unvote

Not ready for a hammer.

Katsuki, why is Gravedigger a bad role for a mini?

[GreyICE]

I've never seen a Gravedigger in a mini before...

From a balance perspective it reduces the swing from a day 1 PR lynch/N1 PR kill in a way similar to Universal Backup, but with more options.

Were you thinking Janitors?

[GreyICE]

I've never seen a Gravedigger in a mini before...

From a balance perspective it reduces the swing from a day 1 PR lynch/N1 PR kill in a way similar to Universal Backup, but with more options.

Were you thinking Janitors?

I was thinking those things that dig up alignment flips, a la SE IV and SAIII.

As for universal backup, I would say that is town. Being able to selectively CHOOSE the role you get is not a town role imo.

That would imply a distinct lack of Vigilantes in this town though, as a scum vigilante is not a possibility that gets past any balance review committee ever. Or he can't copy Vig roles.

But why is the selectivity scum?

[GreyICE]

I swear unto god, one day LLD will think I'm town.

And not in MPM.

Unvote

Vote: Katsuki[/b

[GreyICE]

Vote:Katsuki

[GreyICE]

;_;

Remember SEMG? I was just a tad too hammer happy? Aggressive, but didn't reevaluate?

We're too much alike in some ways I think

[GreyICE]

So I'm scummy because I know that the information that I wanted to get too hard was of no use to the scumteam...

LLD, Fate, AGar - NoPoint: Dumb or Scum?

[GreyICE]

Unvote

Vote: Raivann

This one Fate. Katsuki can live one day.

[GreyICE]

I'm just going to pretend that pages 11 and 12 never happened.

So I'm voting Raivann, 'sup?

[GreyICE]

Hey, I'm just trying to make it abundantly clear if it is true or false.

And what protown reason would there be for finding out if they're truly masons?

[GreyICE]

Is he a VI?

No dude. You just asked the question "what town reason could there be for RBT to ask whether Katsuki was an alignment confirmed mason before voting for Katsuki."

Sure, the question was pretty bad, but that question was horrible.

[GreyICE]

Actually just you. I'm following along on Katsuki.

[GreyICE]

Random voting is a Raivann trademark.

The problem is this time he's hitting major targets with lousy reasoning, not scummy targets getting too little attention with no reasoning. And he's not doing it nearly often enough.

[GreyICE]

Scum doc I've seen before in mini normals. TOWN watcher is brutally OP, scum watcher not so much (scum watcher vs town doctor is a tad full retard, but not imba).

I'm voting Raivann because he's scum.

[GreyICE]

Qualifier clauses rock

[GreyICE]

Like: "I've never spent 10 hours at work on a Sunday."
"I don't mow the lawn in the winter."
"I've never seen a bear in New York City."

[GreyICE]

Vote:LLD

FUCK NO

[GreyICE]

@ICE
what is 313-4 talking about?

@Fate
Is the "scumslip" that LLD pointed out the same scumslip as you saw?

LLD's case. See any issues?

[GreyICE]

I mean, there's ignoring the elephant in the room GreyICE, and then there's LOLIDONTWANTTOPLAYTOMAHWINCON.

You're scumgame hasn't improved at all I see.

Yeah when someone can't understand the difference between 'never seen a gravedigger in a mini normal' and 'never seen a gravedigger' despite it being pointed out and then insists people vote off of that case, I tend to vote for them.

[GreyICE]

One day I'll actually be scum in a game with you. It'll be funny because that's probably going to be the one where you're convinced I'm town.

Katsuki is scummy. Which means exactly jack, because I do believe in busses. And if one thing defines LLD's town play to a T, it's Tunneling. Town LLD would currently be tying Surye to Katsuki and explain how Kats was bussing. Or waffling while pushing both. She gave up on Surye because she realized it would be tough to get him lynched.

Oh and look, we can discuss cupcake mafia. Yeah, we've both caused that shit, so I am trying to avoid it again. We fucked each other's reads.

[GreyICE]

Yes, I actually do. This smells like LLD scum to me.

But what the hey, lets see how this one goes.

Vote: Katsuki

At least you're obvtown today.

[GreyICE]

Today huh?

What are you going to do tomorrow, spout some FATE BUSSING LULZ nonsense?

NOPE YOURE NEXT.

LATE BUS IS LATE.

Nope, I'm going to poke LLD and Raivann.

Raivann is my damn catspaw, and he's sheeping and making bad cases and not being interesting, this is no good. He's scum.

LLD is still scum, she rarely gives up a read for anything less than a moderator flip. Not some damn weird power that is rarely used.

[GreyICE]

SO NOW YOU TRY AND DISTANCE FROM THAT GAME

IF CAPS IS WHAT YOU WANT THEN IT'S WHAT YOU GET

YOUR CASE IS POOR AS SHIT. KAT IS SCUM FOR HAVING A BRAIN WHEN POSTING IN CAPS? WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH

YOU JUST NAILED AN ENTIRE SCUMTEAM IN THE GAME I MODDED, WHERE THE SCUMTEAM JUST SAT APATHETICALLY ON THE SIDELINES WAITING TO BE CAUGHT LIKE THE MUFFINS THEY WERE. HOW DOES THAT APPLY TO THIS GAME AT ALL?
THAT'S JUST SAYING, I WAS RIGHT IN "X", SO I MUST BE RIGHT HERE.

ALSO, YOU'RE GOING "LOOK HOW RIGHT I WAS IN THIS GAME", WHILE TRYING TO DISTANCE AWAY FROM NARUTO MAFIA BECAUSE OF HOW WRONG YOU WERE IN THAT GAME. ABOUT ME NO LESS.

AS FOR LLD YOU KNOW JUST AS WELL AS I DO THAT SHE HAS THAT PHOTOGRAPHIC MEMORY OF HERS. AN ELEMENTARY LEVEL MISREAD USED AMONGST OTHER THINGS TO PUSH A CASE IS SOMETHING YOU'RE ACCEPTING BECAUSE YOUR CASE IS JUST AS FUCKING EMPTY.

YOU'RE NOT EVEN PUSHING WITH A CASE, YOU'RE PUSHING WITH EMPTY WORDS AND RHETORIC.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.

Perfect Memory
Perfect Reasoning
If only the two were the same, then computers would have solved all our problems.

But anyway, yeah, you're scum.

[GreyICE]

Reasoning is based on the information you take in.
Perfect memory does not make elementary mistakes.

Of course it does

[GreyICE]

Yes, I actually do. This smells like LLD scum to me.
But what the hey, lets see how this one goes.

Vote: Katsuki

At least you're obvtown today.

I thought I was, Fate.

Unvote

Vote: Katsuki

[GreyICE]

Also, yeah, that post above?

That was a scum claim.

[GreyICE]

Vote: LadyLambdadelta

[GreyICE]

Good point.

Unvote

Vote: LadyLambdadelta

I do keep forgetting that.

[GreyICE]

So GI, do you want to give reasons?

Or should I just assume that you're taking the "Anyone who suspects me is scum" approach?

Nope it's the 'teehee it was reaction test.'. No you just were wrong. Well cool, you were wrong. Happens to us all.

[GreyICE]

QQ MOAR

[GreyICE]

WHY DOES TOWN WRITE THAT POST GAWDAMMIT?

[GreyICE]

Hi.
I'm a miller btw.

DAMMIT FATE RAIVANN WAS SCUM SO IS THIS Q%##@%#@%!

[GreyICE]

Lol nopoint

[GreyICE]

NP 99% scum.

[GreyICE]

Vote: glass

Mod confirmed scum.

[GreyICE]

Also vote hopping isn't scummy. You are, AGar.

[GreyICE]

Do tell.

Mod-confirmed. Genre claim now. RB is dead. Protections on me.

[GreyICE]

You claiming cop, ICE?
VOTE: ICE
I don't buy it, why is dream on a cop?

I have a very pertinent response to you: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIVaUcE4kAM

[GreyICE]

Can't access YouTube from my phone, I'll get back to you on that. But your meta is very scum-like, jumping on and off of your scumbuddy is exactly how you played newbie 1079, from what I have seen in your town games you are very stubborn and rarely change your vote.

Wut

[GreyICE]

Yeah but
Only one of those
Is Glass's song.

[GreyICE]

I see.

Did you only get a song or a genre as well?

Both.

But with only genre claim I can easily prove my power.

[GreyICE]

Fair odds that godfather exists if Miller exists. So, well, them's da breaks. My power role may be all used up.

Hmm, LLD dead suggests I develop a case of the dead very soon myself. No breadcrumbs so I assume she was the actual night kill. As I cannot see Nikanor as anything but a vig shot after the AMAZING Raivann/"I'm a miller" yesterday.

[GreyICE]

Likely scum remaining:

Nopoint - end of day with Kats and wagon was terribad. Definitely look into lynching him.
AGar - Him and Glass both on Thad is pretty bad. Interactions with Kats wagon bad.
RBT - vote might be a late bus.

others:

Surye - Damn I hope he can snag and use Weak Doc today. Or god I hope he snagged Roleblocker last night, that'd be AWESOME.
Thad - likely town
Fate - confirmed town from interactions imho.
CP - town
Bvoight - doubt you bus the RB that early on day 1. If LLD had lived, you'd be facing down a cop+doctor combo with no RB. That's death.

[GreyICE]

Actually, NoPoint is probable town from glass, glass doesn't seem the bussy sort.

Vig Aggy or RBT, my preference Aggy.

[GreyICE]

Oh no, use RB. Just claim your target today. Glass is 100% a scum flip, so every Roleblock confirms one town if there's a night kill. With you calling your target, you won't overlap with the vigilante.

[GreyICE]

Godfather odds are non-trivial, btw. Also despite the fact you're obviously town, I wouldn't mind a genre out of you

But yah, anyway AGar is unlikely to be town IMHO, as RBT typically plays more or less like this, and AGar's posts today just say 'omfg dead team.' If you think about it Fate, with the way you were going after me as buddy yesterday, you're likely alive because you could be used to lynch me today. And AGar is silly enough he thinks he could do that.

[GreyICE]

No thanks, don't be a dumbfuck.

You don;t claim a guilty then Mass... ANYTHING.

Jesus Grey, just when I started having faith.

OH WAIT I DIDNT, BECAUSE YOU WERE WRONG AS FUCK ABOUT RAIVANN AND IF YOU DIDNT HAVE A GUILTY TODAY IT WOULD BE YOUR MISLYNCH IN THE FUCKIN NOOSE

No I wasn't jesus christ that was scummy dude. "HAI IM A MILLER"

[GreyICE]

LIKE 100%
RIGHT VIG SHOT
NO QUESTIONS ASKED

[GreyICE]

And in case you haven't figured it out, I'm a genre/name cop. So without genres I wasn't going to do anything. Hence my speculation beginning of the game.

Also hence why I know that Glass is "You'll be in my heart", Sappy Disney Theme Pop instead of a Rock-Rap hybrid.

PEdit: No, I did it because I reread the game and Glass's behavior around the Kats wagon was awfully scummy. Also Kats immediately jumped into the 'fakeclaiming' genre stuff, so I figured the other scum did too. Finally, Glass was rolefishing to the max with the 'namecop' business (extremely obvious to me because I am the namecop, and glass was trying to figure out if I was or wasn't).

[GreyICE]

I want Surye to claim his exact target.

Why? Dead Surye tomorrow = 100% confirmed town.
Vig/Surye overlap = 0%.

I should be able to clear a town tonight, so we'd hit tomorrow with basically 3 confirmed town, plus a vig shot.

[GreyICE]

Dammit.

Surye, if MoI locks, Roleblock Agar. I'll cop among bad vig shots.

[GreyICE]

Got it.

[GreyICE]

Still think CP is likely town, but not bad choice overall.

[GreyICE]

LIKE 100%
RIGHT VIG SHOT
NO QUESTIONS ASKED

RIGHT VIG SHOT

VIG

SHOT

You don't lynch a miller d1 because there could be a vig, etc.

Um dude, town PR. Allowed to act scummy day 1. Plus I was awesome, etc. etc.

[GreyICE]

No, I was deliberately being noncommital on the Katsuki wagon. Also LLD's logic is still making my brain hurt. So well etc.

[GreyICE]

Yep! I was wrong about that. Really did think Raivann was scum, so.

But my logic on Glass was 100% my own. Didn't sheep you there, and I wasn't obv buddy at all.

What's the odds that the bus was either late late late on the wagon or never happened? Bussing RB on day 1 is bad mojo.

[GreyICE]

And in case you haven't figured it out, I'm a genre/name cop. So without genres I wasn't going to do anything. Hence my speculation beginning of the game.

Also hence why I know that Glass is "You'll be in my heart", Sappy Disney Theme Pop instead of a Rock-Rap hybrid.

PEdit: No, I did it because I reread the game and Glass's behavior around the Kats wagon was awfully scummy. Also Kats immediately jumped into the 'fakeclaiming' genre stuff, so I figured the other scum did too. Finally, Glass was rolefishing to the max with the 'namecop' business (extremely obvious to me because I am the namecop, and glass was trying to figure out if I was or wasn't).

[GreyICE]

That wasn't an apology

LOOK LIKE AGARS THE LAST SCUMLOL

OH YEAH NO SHIT LIKE I JUST TOLD YOU THAT SO NOW YOU'RE SHEEPING ME IS THAT IT?

[GreyICE]

Okay cool.

So no vigging AGar, vig.

He might actually be town, after all (lol...)

[GreyICE]

The only sane words are "Vote: Glass"

I mean jesus I'm confirmed scum if he flips anything other than "You'll be in my heart," Sappy Disney Theme Pop.

It's hard to walk out of a day 2 claimed cop guilty. I did it once, as town (we lynched the scum), but that involved the scum claiming it being the second largest wagon the day before, and me being town as hell, plus him being tracked to the night kill.

PEdit: It's fun to make fun of you? "Oh Grey had a correct scumread, he sheeped me obv."

[GreyICE]

Jeez, lets just win this one.

Even if it's not AGar, the chances of us losing here are ridiculously low.

[GreyICE]

Okay dude, I seriously reread the entire thread to figure out who the scum was.

And then resubmitted something completely different, but it was too late and MoI went with my gut submittal from an hour after the thread was locked.

But that's details.

[GreyICE]

Bulletproof is a scum claim you idiot.

[GreyICE]

Fate how do you win as SK when both times you CLAIMED TO BE SCUM? IT IS IMPOSSIBLE

[GreyICE]

Fate how do you win as SK when both times you CLAIMED TO BE SCUM? IT IS IMPOSSIBLE

All the competent town die quickly.

No, no one was competent in walking dead. Also he was town until LyLo. BUT STILL

[GreyICE]

RBT played worse than usual, which is something, but you CLAIMED MOTHERFUCKING SCUM IN THE THREAD.

It's not quite as bad as IS lynching obvtown over the claimed vig in LyLo, but it's close.

Anyway, I have no regrets. The person I switched my investigate to day 2 after the deadline, the person I thought was scummier than glass? NoPoint.

You got a pass because you weren't scum with Katsuki, and the miller shot made it look like a vig.

[GreyICE]

Game was strongly sided against town win. The number of potential deaths on day 1 was 3 (Weak doctor, SK, Mafia). LyLo came a day early. So as early as day 2, it could be:

5:3:1

Assuming a scum lynch, it could become:

2:2:1

At which point scum could daykill for the win.

That's a scum win on day 3 with 1 mislynch.



The town had very little it could do against this. SK was also somewhat boned, but the fact that the mafia played like garbage (I'm not joking about waffling between Glass and NoPoint N1 as to who was scummier) and the fact that Fate played well, combined with ThAd just playing to lose, cost the game.

[GreyICE]

Once again you focus on the MOST remote possibilities in making your assessment of balance shows you have much to learn Padawan.

Did this game seriously end in a single Day / Night phase?

Seriously.

Mods your theme and flavor was fantastic but any game that has any possibility of ending by Night 1 isn't well put together. Did you have anyone outside yourselves look over the setup?

AHEM

[GreyICE]

AHEM

There is a STARTINGLY HUGE difference between a game that can end BEFORE DAY 2 starts and this one. The EARLIEST THIS GAME COULD END WOULD BE –

Day 1 – Lynch Town (8:3:1)
Night 1 – Weak Doc dies protecting, Mafia and SK both hit Town, Inventor is motivated and gives a Gun to Town who Shoots Town (4:3:1)
Day 2 – Lynch SK (4:3)
Night 2 – Mafia kills Town and Wins.

So the ABSOLUTE earliest the game could end would be N2, not N1. Furthermore I can run the statistics if want me to quantify ( on a pure random chance model anyway ) the difference in probabilities between this game and Cupcake Mafia.

By the way, I got bored and did this. Cupcake:

* Scum lynch (3/13)
* Vig shoots scum (2/12)
* Scum Night Kill Bomb (1/10)
* Scum NKing bomb is different than scum being vigged (1/2)

Total: 1/520 (0.19%)

Odds your game:
* Town is lynched (9/13)
* WD protects scum (4/11)
* Scum NK non-WD town (7/9)
* SK NKs other town (non-WD, non-NK) (6/11)
* Inventor gives gun (1/4)
* To scum (3/11) - (Shot Odds 5/9)
* To town or SK (8/11) - (5/11)

Total odds: 1.29%
Or 7350/570999 (oh adding complex fractions, what won't you do...)

Around 6.5 times more likely for yours to have the 'worst possible' case than Cupcake.

Lets face it, percents that low HAVE to be thrown out.

Because I can, Brotherhood, multicase:
Day 1 cases, two kills:


*Dayvig N-bulletproof scum (1/12)
*Lynch Scum (2/10)

*dayvig other scum (2/12)
*lynch bulletproof scum (1/11)

(assuming that the dayvig is unlynchable day 1)

N1 Cases, 1 scum death:
*Vig scum (1/10)

*Redirect scum (1/10) onto themselves (only logical redirect target)

Day 1 case, bulletproof dies:
Vigged (1/12) or lynched (1/11)

N1, two deaths:
Redirector redirects scum submitting NK (1/10)
Vig vigs other scum (1/10)


Total chances of ending on day 1:
19/6000 (2 scum dead day 1, 1 dead night 1) + 1/600 (bulletproof dies day 1 + 2 dead scum N1) = 29/6000

So summarize:

I-Pod, worse case: 1.29%
Brotherhood, ends day 1: 0.48%
Cupcake, ends day 1: 0.19%

[GreyICE]

That should be fun.

Suffice to say that the calculation for cupcake (3/13*1/12*1/10) is fairly simple and very hard to argue with. The others are more complex because there's compound probabilities that occur in both (IPod compounds when you have the inventor giving either town or scum the gun, Brotherhood compounds because there's 4 possible ways that scum die).

[GreyICE]

Also for cupcake it's a tad higher than I said because the vig never vigs themself, so that's 1/11, so you can raise it to 0.21%.

Yeah so percentages on the orders of 1% or less are called miracle-shots, and can't be accounted for in swingy games.

[GreyICE]

(These are all blank roulette wheel odds with MINOR common sense (scum don't night kill scum, vig doesn't vig themselves, etc.), observed odds say that a day 1 scumlynch is a good deal higher than 3/13)

[GreyICE]

*sigh*

No, wrong. The chances that the godmother dies day 1 is not 1/12. It's 1/12 she's shot by the vig, and assuming the vig is obvtown after the shot (which he was, even though it hit town), 1/11 to be lynched.

You have to add the two chances together, and you end up with a 23/132 chance that the godmother dies day 1.

Then assuming the godmother dies day 1, the chances that the other one hits scum are 2/11.

So the compounded chance is 23/132 * 2/11

Which ignores the redirector, but thems the breaks.

Basically, you've taken 46/1452 (3.07%) and simplified it to 1/48 (2.08%), which isn't even CLOSE to correct.

[GreyICE]

Well what we're doing is hybredizing two different cases together.

Case 1: Godmother dayvig, scum lynch:
1/12*2/11

Case 2: Other scum dayvig, godmother lynch:
2/12*1/11

Since EITHER case one OR case 2 gets us the same result, the combined odds are really:

1/66 + 1/66, for a combined odds of 1/33, or around 3.03%. Which is more accurate, but mine was within spitting distance and I'm lazy.

Your error was that you used a hybrid diddly case that made no sense

3/12 (odds scum is vigged... INCLUDING GODMOTHER SCUM)
1/12 (odds godmother is lynched)

This is clearly wrong, because in the circumstances where the vig shoots godmother, odds of scum lynch are 0%. So to hybrid it properly, you'd have to path it:

2/12 * 1/12
1/12 * 0

Then you realize that of course the town can lynch other scum if the godmother is shot, and you end up with what I have.

[GreyICE]

That was for your worse case '5 dead town by day 2' calculation (which, while not a certain scum victory, being in 4:3:1 on day 2 is pretty damn close to a certain town loss).

No I multiplied by 2/11. Not added. There's a small, tiny little difference. (2/11 * 2/11 being somewhat different from 2/11 + 2/11)

[GreyICE]

Sorry, mine are right, his are wrong. I didn't take four years of engineering in college including through Calc IV and Differential Equations to not know how to do a compounded probability. For pete's sake that's what any failure analysis of any sort comes down to.

[GreyICE]

Please refer to the above picture as a representation of this entire debate.

Also:


Honk honk, motherfucker

/obligatory

[GreyICE]

Oh dun worry, math is so perfect that its proofs are the only proofs, anything considered 'proven' in a science is a pale shadow of a joke next to what math considers proof. It is used in every single science. There's no question that math has the largest breadth and spans the most subjects.

Engineering just taps a part of that, but we have all of the practical uses.