Open 295 -- Island Paradise Mafia -- Game Over

[farside22]

So your only analysis day 2 vote count and not the end of day 1 vote count because.......????

[Jora]

I know ut seems like my D1 TT vote, but not. This time I'm sure.

VOTE: Sundy

Not ready yet to publish my reasonings.
Just brief on what I found so far:

farside22, havingfitz, ToastyToast are innocents.

Which leaves: DeathRowKitty, Sundy, yabbaguy as possible scums. I have no case on DeathRowKitty. That leaves Sundy, yabbaguy. Case later.

[Sundy]

Hokay. Two replacements since I read through the thread, and both turn up town. Guess it gives us a fresh read. Kind of surprised by Magua's flip tbqh.

Anyway there is someone who is sticking out like a sore thumb on a re-read (well, he has stood out before). He kind of reminds me of Pierce from Community in his demeanor.

When asked to give a scum list by Farside, he replies "I know you asked politely but I'd rather not. If I did I would just be ISOing myself to reiterate points I have already made on the players I have suspected." Like he's not reacting to the game as more information comes, but gleaning his cases from previous stances. He's not really looking for more information. In the midst of general calls for extension, he says he doesn't want one (though it's hard to hold that against him considering NS' decision).

After CDB gave a bunch of good flash reads, he says: "No response to your posts CDB. My suspicions are vague and gut based. I wish I did have a stronger feel towards someone with solid reasoning." But he's expressed suspicions before in the game, now he just seems to be to clenching his teeth and holding out.

vote: Havingfitz

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 3.01

Sundy - 2 - farside22, }|{opa
havingfitz - 1 - Sundy

Not Voting: DeathRowKitty, havingfitz, ToastyToast, yabbaguy

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: June 2.

V/LA: ...

[Jora]

On second thoughts, no. UNVOTE:

No matter how strong my feelings are, sorry farside, I should listen to Fonz: "Farside22 is always scum".

VOTE: yabbaguy

[havingfitz]

So your only analysis day 2 vote count and not the end of day 1 vote count because.......????

This is funny. I actually didn't look at any previous votes because I forgot there had been a previous mislynch. RL and lack of interest/reads has made this game a bit more difficult for me to get in whatever groove I'm usually capable of getting into. My mini VCA based on yesterday's mislynch was just a quick thought based on trying to get things moving today. A quick look at the D1 vote I neglected shows two of my D2 vote candidates who were on the D1 mislynch as well (farside and TT). In all fairness I would have been on both as well if CDB hadn't beat me to my no-lynch avoidance post. While their presence on the D2 vote is not necessarily a 100% indictment of them...I think being on both is certainly cause for attention. I need to do a reread.

@}|{opa...could you explain your reads a bit on why you have farside and TT as innocents? Especially given that they have been on both mislynches.

@Sundy...I can understand how my lack of reads or gut feels towards anyone in particular can be viewed with suspicion. To me it would look like someone just trying to keep their options open. The one player I did have a town inclination towards was unfortunately Magua so it's back to the drawing board for me. I will say that when I am town I am naturally suspicious/defensive towards people who try to make a case on me. So in the middle of all my uncertainty you are moving a bit higher on my list.

[farside22]

On second thoughts, no. UNVOTE:

No matter how strong my feelings are, sorry farside, I should listen to Fonz: "Farside22 is always scum".

VOTE: yabbaguy

But you just called me town.

Man I feel like Fonz will be haunting all my games with that damn wiki

Anyways I need to look at something that started gnawing at me last night. I will get back with it later (probably tomorrow).

[farside22]

Fitz: Do you typically look at the wagon of a player that flipped town to find scum?

[havingfitz]

Fitz: Do you typically look at the wagon of a player that flipped town to find scum?

Yes. I usually assume there is scum on town wagons. It's not always that way but more often than not it is. Especially when it happens more than once in a game. You don't?

[farside22]

Fitz: Do you typically look at the wagon of a player that flipped town to find scum?

Yes. I usually assume there is scum on town wagons. It's not always that way but more often than not it is. Especially when it happens more than once in a game. You don't?

Would you care to explain why in this game where you were town you did not then?

Well, that's one down. Time for number two.

vote: andrew94

Seriously...after all the D1 interaction between a94 and Zyrco you come into D2 raring to lynch a94? I know a94 was on your list of suspects yesterdays (though I couldn't find the reasons why) but I find it very hard to believe scum would be so quick to bus their RB. Which is why I am willing to give you a pass today as well.

While I would be surprised if there wasn't scum on the tail end of Zyrco's wagon, I really think we are best served focusing off his wagon. I maintain my D1 suspicions towards tylerj (for which I have given my reasons) and Nacho's play in that slot has not changed my mind. Of the three players not on the lynch yesterday my top suspect is....

VOTE: Nacho

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

vote: havingfitz

In case you missed it. It's called lynching all liars.

[farside22]

What I found fascinating looking through fitz's meta is that he usually tunnel's and has scum suspects in his games as town. I found one scum game that through much of what I believed out the window. He had town reads and made cases. So I was like, wow this tells me nothing about the guy that relates to how he plays this game. However his complete lack of reads or finding a person scummy or even a vote today for anyone really rang false.
Plus not reading what the doc said yesterday or anyone else's reads that flipped town doesn't make sense. I usually look at what everyone says and check on theories and beliefs. Why they felt that way and then I look at who the scum kill and I really have to wonder if they were on to something.
Fitz doesn't bother with any of this and lumps people that were on CBD's wagon. His reads are in short null.

[havingfitz]

Fitz: Do you typically look at the wagon of a player that flipped town to find scum?

Yes. I usually assume there is scum on town wagons. It's not always that way but more often than not it is. Especially when it happens more than once in a game. You don't?

Would you care to explain why in this game where you were town you did not then?

Well, that's one down. Time for number two.

vote: andrew94

Seriously...after all the D1 interaction between a94 and Zyrco you come into D2 raring to lynch a94? I know a94 was on your list of suspects yesterdays (though I couldn't find the reasons why) but I find it very hard to believe scum would be so quick to bus their RB. Which is why I am willing to give you a pass today as well.

While I would be surprised if there wasn't scum on the tail end of Zyrco's wagon, I really think we are best served focusing off his wagon. I maintain my D1 suspicions towards tylerj (for which I have given my reasons) and Nacho's play in that slot has not changed my mind. Of the three players not on the lynch yesterday my top suspect is....

VOTE: Nacho

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

vote: havingfitz

In case you missed it. It's called lynching all liars.

Ummm...what is there to explain? The quote you have above is consistgent with my response to you. This is the worst example (ie it's not even an example) of a lie I have ever seen. I say above that I

usually

believe there is scum on town wagons and then you provide an example of me voting for someone

who was on

a D1 mislynch. WTF? How is that a lie?

As for the meta description you provided...I would say that is accurate. I tend to lock in on my main suspects and will typically only move my vote if I'm alone in my suspicions and one of my other suspects has a wagon going or possibly to avoid a no-lynch. The fact I don't have any frontrunners in this game is more a case of everyone being somewhat level in my suspicions. Your extremely misplaced and bad effort to push a LAL case on me is helping me sort the field a bit though.

[Sundy]

On second thoughts, no. UNVOTE:

No matter how strong my feelings are, sorry farside, I should listen to Fonz: "Farside22 is always scum".

VOTE: yabbaguy

What's the connection between Farside & Yabba, Jora?

Two fitz quotes made in short succession that are worth looking at:

Your extremely misplaced and bad effort to push a LAL case on me is helping me sort the field a bit though.

I am naturally suspicious/defensive towards people who try to make a case on me. So in the middle of all my uncertainty you are moving a bit higher on my list.

[havingfitz]

Two fitz quotes made in short succession that are worth looking at:

Your extremely misplaced and bad effort to push a LAL case on me is helping me sort the field a bit though.

I am naturally suspicious/defensive towards people who try to make a case on me. So in the middle of all my uncertainty you are moving a bit higher on my list.

Why are these worth looking at? I'm saying that the two of you pointing suspicion towards me is making me suspicious of you. Question for you Sundy...in games where you are town...do you dismiss when people attempt to make cases against you as being misguided town or in the back of your mind do you leave open the possibility that they could be scum looking to get a mislynch wagon going?

Neither your poor case on me or farside's ridiculous example of a lie on their own warrant a vote in return by me (though pending farside's response her's is close to vote-worthy) but they are definitely going to make me take a closer look at both of you.

[ToastyToast]

Sundy sounds like too easy a lynch today. havingfitz attacking farside? its not only consistent with his earlier actions but also unlikely for scum to attempt to lynch a more active player who is going to be difficult to lynch in the long run.

[havingfitz]

@TT. What? Why do you say Sundy sounds like an easy lynch?

And when you say "having fitz attacking farside?"...to what do you refer? Do you mean me pointing out that farside's LAL case is baseless

[Sundy]

Question for you Sundy...in games where you are town...do you dismiss when people attempt to make cases against you as being misguided town or in the back of your mind do you leave open the possibility that they could be scum looking to get a mislynch wagon going?

I don't dismiss it either way. There's been times people were attacking me and I thought they were town. There's been a few games where very townie players ran up a wagon on m the first or second day. But I do agree with you that OMGUS can be justified... there's also been times when people have expressed suspicion of me and they did it in a way that didn't seem town. It all depends.

What stood out to me about your posts to me & Farside was the similar phrasing, like you were brushing off the attacks with the same reflexive move. I like how now you think my case is poor even though in your earlier defense you said "I can understand how my lack of reads or gut feels towards anyone in particular can be viewed with suspicion."

[ToastyToast]

@TT. What? Why do you say Sundy sounds like an easy lynch?

And when you say "having fitz attacking farside?"...to what do you refer? Do you mean me pointing out that farside's LAL case is baseless

Im saying your case on her has more merit behind it than her case on Sundy. Lynching Sundy is easy because, well, does anyone have a solid town read on Sundy? nope.
And that was more-or-less an "im here guys" post. I have some wagon analysis that I am going to look into tonight.

[havingfitz]

Sundy...there was similar phrasing because you have both put votes on me. You didn't answer why they were worth looking at. Because they were similar? Some other reason? What was your point in pointing them out?

And just because I can understand how someone can think something doesn't mean I have to agree with it. When I am town I tend to think any case on me is poor.

[havingfitz]

@farside...you have two posts online since my LAL response to you and no comment in here? What's up?

[Sundy]

Sundy...there was similar phrasing because you have both put votes on me. You didn't answer why they were worth looking at. Because they were similar? Some other reason? What was your point in pointing them out?

And just because I can understand how someone can think something doesn't mean I have to agree with it. When I am town I tend to think any case on me is poor.

They're worth looking at because they're the same cookie-cutter defined reflexive OMGUS suspicion in your mist of uncertainty. I already explained that.

And yeah I get that when you're town you're not going to agree with a case on you. That doesn't mean you can't have town reads on the people making the case against you. People can make mistakes and still seem townie.

[havingfitz]

And yeah I get that when you're town you're not going to agree with a case on you. That doesn't mean you can't have town reads on the people making the case against you. People can make mistakes and still seem townie.

I don't have town reads towards either of you. Before or after today's posts.

[farside22]

Fitz: The point is in the game I linked you noted that scum tend to go on town wagons' but attacked a player that was not on the wagon at the time you had a scum read on.
This game your scum read is all null

That is a huge difference. I see you pretty much ignored everything I wrote and snipped it down to one comment along with an almost OMGUS attitude.....so everyone that has attacked you is scum......oh wait except Yabba who did that day 1.

*writes more furious notes*

[farside22]

@farside...you have two posts online since my LAL response to you and no comment in here? What's up?

1) I'm arguing in a lylo situation in another game.
2) At the time of both post (in the same game) I'm at lunch in the only place I can gain access to MS and got kicked off of the computer because a customer came into the room and needed the computer.

Are you seriously calling me lurkering? Are you using my posting in another game first without looking at my normal post pattern's during the weekday?

[farside22]

And yeah I get that when you're town you're not going to agree with a case on you. That doesn't mean you can't have town reads on the people making the case against you. People can make mistakes and still seem townie.

I don't have town reads towards either of you. Before or after today's posts.

In fact if you look at fitz's reads through the game he doesn't have a scum read on anyone.

Lets look at some fasinating moments

DRK seems to have no problem posting in other games. If I thought DRK was scum I would vote for DRK but I'm not convinced. DRK!!!! Please replace out! arrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh......

2 post later

I don't care for DRK's continued cameo appearances where she lets us know that she's not intested in the game...yet she continues to pop in and puts a vote down on yabba based on gut conveniently right after yabba expresses suspicions towards DRK. And while it gives (or gave) me a headache dealing with farside...for you [DRK] to advocate we not post anymore is in effect trying to restrain two of the most active posters. My top suspect isn't getting any attention so I'll try elsewhere.

VOTE: DRK

Reason for voting on Jack

Agreed - "no lynching on day one is stupid." Hopping on a wagon for the sake of hopping on a wagon...just to avoid a no lynch is even more stupid. Odds favor the day one lynch being a mislynch and those odds get even higher when 'town' jumps on wagons without any good reason. Star didn't exactly leave covered with a town aura and Jak has not helped redeem that player slot IMO.

VOTE: TheJakalope

As for Jak vs Fang...the only reason I'm passing on ZF atm is because of my habit of giving slots that have been replaced 2 or more times a little leeway. Today at least....maybe not tomorrow depending on whether he or I are still around.

Jak replaced into a role that had a lot of suspicion towards it and has done nothing to divert that attention. He has posted just enough to remain in the game but has brought nothing...and despite being so close to being the day's lynch...he has done nothing to save himself. Even when he was (is he still?) at L-1. I see he has posted a few times today but has ignored this game. I'm good with staying on the Star/Jak wagon.

Wishy washy and coming up with an excuse why one is okay to lynch but the other isn't with weak reasoning.

Doesn't like the wagon on TT

Read D2....not seeing anything solid on the Toast cases (especially the }|{opa one).....I've suspected to some degree all the people on the Toast wagon so that supports my doubts on it. I haven't been a big fan, albeit not the most vocally, of cj and after reading D2 I just get a scummy feeling from her.

VOTE: cjdrum

Hold up don't you think the wagon that was on CBD had scum so who did you not like on the TT wagon......right jora who your not voting for like you did in a game that I linked to.

Random ISO...TT seems to be getting a lot of attention so I did one on him. I like most of his posting the first page but then....I got to the post where he says cj is off his scumlist (TT ISO 25). This is followed shortly thereafter by his TOAST rating post where the only bad thing he hass to say towards cj is about cj's "joking approach"...which I admit I find suspect as well...but he (TT) still hass cj above a null read on Sundy and a leaning scum read on }|{opa. Then, strangely enough...within an hour of cj posting (for the first time in almost a week) that he suspects TT (and placing a vote on TT)...TT decides he could see cj and yabba as a scum team. Followed by the unexplained vote on cj. So overall...a decent first page of posting by TT but from ISO 28 on I must say he doesn't come across as very consistent. Why flip to cj so easily when you really really think yabba is scum and from what I can tell...you appear to suspect }|{opa and Sundy as much or more than Sundy. Is you vote on cj there for any reason other than the "joking approach?"

Also...really not liking the totally frivolous and silly apple defense posts by DRK for his cj vote.

A totally useless post that gives no reads on what he think of TT.



TL'TR