Mini 1137: Long Overdue Mafia [Game Over!]

[Pine]

Hullo. I have class in 12 minutes, so I'll read over what I missed and get an assessment up later this evening.

Unvote

Don't know who Xalxe had his vote on, but I'll make up my own mind.

[Pine]

I guess we should get things moving.
I'd like to ask some questions, just because we can't stay in RVS forever unfortunately.
1. When are you most likely to be posting?
2. How would you describe your play style?

I like RQS as introductions of new players, so I'll answer these from way back at the start of the thread.
1) I keep batshit crazy hours, EST. A student's schedule allows me to sleep late, stay up, and generally let my natural circadian rhythm dictate my sleep/wake cycle, so long as I make class on time and don't fall asleep during it.
2) I have a

lot

of experience with the live version of the game, but only about 50% of what one learns in the live game is applicable in this format. I'm a new scummer and still adapting. Lately I've found what works for me is to focus on one person at a time, dissect and analyze everything they do and have done, and see if a case holds together. If it doesn't, I move on. I'm generally not a fan of popular wagons or sheeping, but if I feel it is justified or that someone needs pressure, I'll hop on. As each day phase winds down, I will look at the feasible lynches and go with the best choice, regardless of whether they're my current target. I'm fond of walls, but also of short remarks on other peoples' posts. I detest lurking and non-contribution, and I don't like speed-lynching until the day begins to stagnate. Also, I don't think Xalxe was an especially effective player, so don't be surprised if I am radically different in opinions, votes, and style to him.

On to my first vote!

...

jeez pappums, and here I thought we had a scum wrapped up 100%. Now it's only, like 50% or so.

My reaction: pappums is town. If he were scumgambiting, he would have no reason not to let the wagon run its course and then claim "lol insane cop my bad lololololol." So yeah.

Voided...is iffy, I really need to reread his postings.

Also, UNVOTE: Voidedmafia

I completely disagree with my predecessor. Not only could and would scum do this, but this could be a near-brilliant scum tactic. Ramp up a wagon based on a PR claim, get the victim super-defensive. "Confess" at the last minute, because as we all know, there are no insane cops in Normal Minis. If he HADN'T confessed, he'd be immediately lynched D2 for being exposed in an irretrievable lie. The way he did it, he's seen as towngambiting. I don't buy it. Lynch All Liars, because there was NO Pro-Town reason for this gambit at this time. My interpretation is reinforced by post 179.

VOTE: pappums rat

PR is either scum or

counter

productive town. Either is an acceptable D1 lynch.

I could also support a Jerbs wagon to nudge him into a more productive state, but I've played with him before and this IS his established meta, though I find it illogical and unproductive.

[Pine]

Sorry to hear that, Jerbs. Good luck.

[Pine]

Non-contributing=Not helping
Not helping=Detrimental

Jerbs had a good reason, and we shouldn't hold that against his replacement. Bub's got more or less a clean slate in my book

[Pine]

No, wanting to lynch someone about to be replaced is scummy. Fitz was right.

Think about it. Jerbs was a Town liability. His unproductive stance was, in the long run, hurting the Town's scumhunting efforts. Like Mike said, replacements not only get things moving again where there had been stagnation, they often provide wholly new perspectives. A flaw of people in it from the start is a tendency to make decisions early and later use rationalization to justify keeping them. That's what you did in 327.

[Pine]

In theory, yes it can be found scummy. However, I'm not scum, and therefore there was no scum motivation in my vote. I simply hate replacements in general. In all games. Sorry if it's scummy to you. I just find it funny Fitz would point it out so quickly, like a dying man's last curse.

Paraphrase: I'm not scum because I said I'm not scum. Try a little harder.

Also, your disdain for replacements is stupid. Replacing inactive players is wholly beneficial for Town for reasons already stated. You just went from a null/VI read to a mild scum read.

PEdit: Pappums rat needs to die. The desire to lynch replacements is not null, it's scum. And LAL is tried and true. Gambiting like you did holds zero benefit for Town.

I'm usually very, very against speedlynches, but the day has already fallen into bickering and recursion. Let's get done with this.

@Bub

: Eagerly awaiting your input.

[Pine]

VI? Really Pine? Oh dear, you obviously haven't read the thread.

And Pappums, I basically said there was no case, and I wanted someone to make a case that at least SOMEWHAT stands. Glad it could make you laugh though, however if you spent that energy actually making a case, then we can talk.

I've read the thread twice now. Calling you VI wasn't a typo.

[Pine]

Hmm. It just occurred to me that if PR does flip scum, that more or less clears Voided completely. WAY too risky a move to play on a scummate, even in the name of bussing.

[Pine]

A Town flip would be irrelevant on you. It means he just made a moronic gambit, and likely chose you at random.

[Pine]

^Just occurred to me: I don't regard PR as moronic. If he were a VI, I'd probably disregard the gambit completely. But he's been very smart in wriggling out from the aborted scumgambit.

[Pine]

Same answer. If Jinxx had pulled the same gambit and also claimed a gut scum read, it'd be the same thing. I don't think scum would bus that risky that early. There was no reason to do it. If there'd been a little pressure on PR at the time "shit got real," then I might be inclined to believe a bussing theory. But there wasn't, really. He was in framing mode.

[Pine]

I'm lost.

Help me lynch a liar. Refer to above posts for my reasons.

[Pine]

Welcome, tarsonisocelot! Is TIO an acceptable abbreviation?

[Pine]

So town are calm and collected. Scum aren't. Got it.

This is correct. However, the inverse is also true. Town are also emotional and passionate, where scum generally aren't. Sound like a contradiction? It kind of is. But when you think of it from scum's perspective, it makes perfect sense. What's the goal of scum? To

fake

blending in. Real, genuine emotion and passion are

hard

to fake. They usually stick out and smell funny when they try. Scum generally ride the moderate emotional scale, trying not to let anything slide but not over-reacting to anything...unless they think they're

supposed

to over-react.

Since you are big on normal reactions TO...how do you like pappums little hissy

PR's hissy fit just now is a perfect example. It's a classic nuclear over-reaction. Instead of calmly dealing with it or hitting that (very Townie but very difficult to fake) medium between outrage and sensible, he overdoes it and achieves irrational "Fuck you!" scumminess.

UNVOTE: pappums rat
VOTE: pappums rat

[Pine]

You do realize I don't care whether you were being sarcastic? My comments don't depend on your sarcasm or seriousness. For the record, Fitz is a moderately-distant second on my scum list. I'd be satisfied with a Fitz lynch, though I haven't put the effort into his case that I have with PR.

[Pine]

Question: Does anyone think pappums rat is actually Town?

[Pine]

Apparently. He hasn't gotten to the "Lol just kidding" part yet.

[Pine]

...

Seriously, Andrew?

Seriously?

[Pine]

alright pine is scummy because he unvotes and votes pappums again??

why would you do that

hint: change ur order in vote count

Okay, now that I've gotten the sarcastic response out of my system and repressed the urge to smite the stupid in you, I'll explain. Using small words and typing slowly.

I unvoted...and voted again...for emphasis.

I mean, really? To change vote count order? Why the hell would anyone bother? OH NOES, I'M THIRD THE NERD IN THE VOTE COUNT.

Also, please learn to capitalize, use punctuation, and spell out your words. Using question marks in a declarative statement confuses and actually changes your meaning, and replacing 'your' with 'ur' just makes you look like an idiot. Or perhaps a child.

Damn...I really did start this post with patience in mind...oh well.

[Pine]

Fitz has convinced me that Cecily should be suspect #1 on D2.

But seriously, can someone tell me why people aren't voting for PR?

[Pine]

I'll put together a full response for you soon, Jahudo. What you're asking for is time-consuming.

When I initially had to catch up, I decided to start with just my big read and let the little stuff slide and have it come out naturally. People don't apparently like massive walls on this site, and it sucks to sum up 14-15 pages all at once.

I've kinda forgotten to string it out over the last couple pages I've been around.

PEdit: PTB's response regarding scum gambits is dead-on.

[Pine]

Gambiting isn't scummy when it's on D4 to protect a power role or to get known scum lynched. Done on D1 in order to get someone who (at the time) was a total null read is remarkably scummy.

[Pine]

Done on D1 in order to get someone who (at the time) was a total null read is remarkably scummy.

Why? Also, no. It sparks discussion and that is always good for town because they start to see connections form.

There are far, far better ways to start discussion that don't involve extreme risk to a (statistically probable) Townie.

Pine: How would you analyse Xalxe's play earlier in this game?

*sigh* I'll add that to the wall I'm developing regarding the dozen or more pages I missed.

[Pine]

In the right position? In the right position for...what exactly?

Besides. No one voted for PR in the time between my initial vote and revote. So my position is...exactly the same. Please stop failing and do something useful.

[Pine]

When you get to it, I explain exactly how clever scum would benefit from it shortly after I replace in.

[Pine]

Mike: Nothing scummy outside the gambit? Pay attention.

[Pine]

I strongly disagree with ANY lynches based solely on policy in a game this size. We don't have the people to spare. Even Andrew.

That said, if there IS a policy reason to add to someone's crimes against the Town, as with PR's case, that's fine.

[Pine]

Just over a week to go. Kinda wish Bub would finish catching up, and PTB and TO would make a decision.

Crap, I've been promising a wall, haven't I? Busy weekend, I'll try to get it up tonight.

[Pine]

stupid fucking petulant child. if you are indeed town you will look back at this game with a great deal of shame once you actually know how to play mafia.

Good summary of your attitude thus far, and how your gambit is likely to be viewed by future you.

[Pine]

WHY are we still dicking around in Day One? I can see the wagon on fitz, but I really just don't think it's going to produce results today. We can take a deeper look at him D2, but the case on pappums rat is SOLID. I usually hedge my bets a little, using words like "if they flip scum" or "in the unlikely result they flip Town," but I have NO such doubts this time around.

Is there ANYONE who seriously thinks PR is Town anymore? If so, please speak up so we know to lynch you for being his scumbuddy and wrap this up on D2.

Come on people. Pull your heads out of your asses and let's get this over with. We've moved into the late stage of the day where Town starts attacking Town.

PEDIT:

Gambiting isn't scummy when it's on D4 to protect a power role or to get known scum lynched. Done on D1 in order to get someone who (at the time) was a total null read is remarkably scummy.

Your gambit was the single scummiest thing in the entire thread. By a wide margin. And lying is ALWAYS scummy, it's just mitigated (at best) when actual Townies do it for legitimate reasons.

[Pine]

I feel like we're also suffering from a critical lack of participation, too. Three replacements, two of whom have barely posted, one of those who seems not to even be completely caught up yet. Two players who are so newbish it hurts. And half of the rest are either determined sheep or seem to be sticking their fingers in their ears and pursuing only lynches that go nowhere.

PEDIT: Flamebaiting? Point to any one post where I've flamebaited you. I've arguably flamed Andrew, but I don't really DO passive-aggressive. Also, I can't decide whether the ad hominem personal attacks are an effort to fish for a "scum wouldn't get this bent out of shape," or whether they're genuine. In the latter case, I'd say the following:

@Mod-Please enforce:

4) Be courteous to your fellow player. This is just a game - please don't bring personal grudges into the game. Try and keep it civil. If you cross 'the line' I'll step in. Said line will be judged by me.

[Pine]

Quit helping PR distract people, neil.

[Pine]

pappums rat, the hardest working man in scum business. Always lurking with a comment ready. Die already.

[Pine]

@Fitz: To clarify, my top three are PR, you, and Cecily, in that order. There's a big gap between PR and you, and a smaller one between you and Cecily. I have no idea why you think the fact that your reasons and mine for suspecting PR are similar is relevant.

With regard to having produced original evidence against PR, no one had provided any logic at all concerning how PR's gambit would work for scum. I did.

With regard to not having assembled comprehensive cases against my top scum reads (even PR,) I'll do so in the morning. Tired, not going to do that right now. I know, I've promised that for a while, I mean it this time.

With regard to Neil, he is obv. newbTown. Suggesting he is scum despite glaring, screaming town tells is among the lesser reasons I suspect you.

With regard to your classification of PR's recent antics as emotional and passionate, the Observer Effect, a conflation of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, comes into play. The act of observing something changes the object being observed. By similar principles, stating 'Town does this' or 'Scum does that' makes subsequent instances of that rule in that thread less valid. Simply put, scum can and will imitate Town tells to the best of their ability. By sharing one of your Town tells, you give scum clues as to how to fool you. That doesn't render the point

completely

invalid, as it is still generally true, but I feel PR's outbursts are completely over the top and phony, either trying to play to a supposed Town tell or stymie the efforts of his detractors or both.

[Pine]

Were you planning on voting, or just waffling?

[Pine]

I'm worried that if we wait for a replacement on PR, they're going to use the slack we all subconsciously give to replacements to their advantage. In my mind, PR's spot is confirmed scum, and I am concerned that a replacement is just going to wriggle out of it.

Hammer, please.

[Pine]

IRL for 7 years and on another site. I see early scum gambits all the time in live play, and there exists no viable reason for Town to do it. At all. The given "starting conversation" reason is bullshit, there are infinitely better options for starting conversation than lying to Town.

From the words of Vi regarding Town gambits.

[Pine]

Oh hai, nacho. Sorry you got stuck with about-to-be-lynched scum. I'm tempted to back off just because I enjoy playing with you.

But I'd rather get down to a one scum game.

UNVOTE: pappums rat
VOTE: nachomamma8

[Pine]

Sorry for my absence over the last two days. They've been hell.

Fitz, I honestly couldn't remember having said Cecily was my #1 suspect for D2 (assuming PR was lynched.) So I went and looked it up, and remembered why I said it. At that time, PR was way out ahead at the top of my list, and you were a distant second. Your case against Cecily moved her up level with you and slightly ahead. Over the intervening days, I simply became less impressed with your case than I had upon first reading it. Still good but not "oh my god that's right!"

I'll make my cases against Fitz and Cecily on D2, as I'd be shocked if I drew the NK.

[Pine]

L-1

[Pine]

I disagree, though you're right about the unlikely possibility of them being scumbuddies. They might be scum backed into a corner and bussing the other as hard as they can, though.

[Pine]

I'm a little lurky in part because I'm genuinely busy this weekend, but also because I've played with Nacho before and I know how good he is. I have a solid, iron-clad scum-read on pappums rat, and I'm concerned that someone as skilled as Nacho will be able to manipulate the uncertain nature of the late phase of D1 to worm out of it.

[Pine]

Considering that I think Nacho is scum trying to weasel his way out of a lynch, I'm taking every word he says with a bucket of salt.

[Pine]

Neighborizer is one of the worst fakeclaims, actually. If you have scumbuddies confirm it, then if the Neighborizer dies, they're exposed and auto-lynched.

[Pine]

Please don't hammer Voided yet, I have a case for him as Town to make when I get home.

[Pine]

Just got home and went to do the promised Voided=Town case, but...damn, VM, you're making it

really

hard. I don't have very many scumtells that I'm confident of, but your last few posts have discovered one of those buttons and taken a hammer to it repeatedly.

Specifically, I find it massively anti-Town to vote for yourself, threaten to vote for yourself, say you're willing to hammer yourself, or anything like that. And all that goes double if you're at L-1 or L-2 at the time. If you're vanilla Town, then you're the only person that, to you, is Confirmed Town. That kind of action, therefore, is strictly anti-Town. It's even worse from a claimed Power Role.

In my eyes, the ONLY valid reason someone of your claimed role would do that is to gain Town points with uninformed people, and to try to get some of the people voting for you to back off. It's the equivalent of taking yourself hostage in order to run from the cops. Therefore, the only valid motive to do it is if you're scum trying to survive and beat the rap for another day.

I'm really, really torn now. You've set off plenty of minor Town reads with me, but have managed to completely reverse that. Yeah, I think I've convinced myself over the course of this posting. If you flip scum, I'll feel vindicated in my scum tell. If you flip Town, then don't EVER do that again. It is NEVER productive as Town.

UNVOTE: Nachomamma8
VOTE: Voidedmafia

Hammer.

[Pine]

Goddamnit. I've got to learn to stick with my first instincts in this game, and not get swayed at the last minute.

VOTE: Nachomamma8

You're stuck with PR's legacy and massive scum pings. Add on top of that the fact that he nearly succeeded in getting a Townie mislynched, and you helped finish the job, this vote IS NOT MOVING without a compelling reason.

[Pine]

Writing a post.

[Pine]

I've stayed silent long enough. Yes, I've been quite active on the site and silent here. To be perfectly honest, I've put this off. Why? Because Setael's case is incredibly thorough, well-researched, and seemingly air-tight. For quite some time, I was thinking to not even bother, and just post my reads and let my flip clear both me and those reads. But like I said, I find that kind of attitude very anti-Town, bordering on playing against wincon. While doing an archive binge of one of my favorite webcomics, I came across the above strip, specifically the last panel.

I know, it's not exactly applicable. But with a little adjustment, it can easily be applied to Mafia. "Scum don't have scumhunting cases. They have cleverly consistent fictions." The only way I feel someone could have arrive at such a seamless conclusion is with their objective pre-determined prior to making the case. A clever manipulator can twist almost any set of facts, especially a set that includes such a

glaring

error as my ill-advised hammer, into whatever kind of case they want. And to put it plainly, Setael's mind was made up far, far before he ever got to my first post.

If you look at his wall case against me, it is largely and strongly based in Xalxe's play, which I have already decried as amateurish and misleading. I've been worried since the start that someone would do a serious analysis of Xalxe's play and arrive at the conclusion I arrived at. When I replaced in, I decided to read the thread before looking at my role PM. I was fairly convinced at that time that Xalxe had pulled scum and that pappum's rat was our partner. I was

shocked

when I found

Town Tracker

in my role PM.

I maintain that, while Setael may or may not be scum himself (and I'm trying not to be biased about him here), his entire (legitimate) case is based on Xalxe's truly bad play and my hammer of Voided. The rest of the case comes from that conclusion, after which all of my posts were irrelevant except as fodder for advancing his case.

Next post in a series of three: Why I hammered, and the case for Voided as Town that I never finished. The third will be answering the remaining questions and a final statement.

[Pine]

For starters, seeing the start of a possibly-strong comeback and challenge to the railroad of a case you've presented, and immediately following up with a post of your own that all but comes right out and says "Don't listen to anything Pine has to say, lynch him today! Quick! Before he can debunk my bullshit!"

Working on the second post in a series of three over dinner. Expect it in an hour or so.

[Pine]

Hmmm, Pine's post seems wordy and desperate. He knows he's in a corner and is trying to find a way out of it with a cleverly disguised OMGUS.

Pine, who did you track last night?

I ended up going out after dinner, second post is only half complete. I read Mastin's MD article on cops (and by extension, cop-like roles like Trackers) as soon as I read my role PM. I'd heard of it, but never read it before. It suggests staying away from people likely to be lynched and people you've got strong reads on. I followed mikemike and got nothing.

[Pine]

Result is directly above your post. It was intended to be part of Post 3.

[Pine]

Yeah, there really isn't. I fucked up royally, and there's absolutely no way I'm going to talk my way out of this, and I'd rather deny you the rest of the discussion time.

VOTE: Pine

Apologies to my scum partners.

[Pine]

Faraday, you sexy, sexy man.

I must learn from you. The cartoon was sheer brilliance.

[Pine]

We knew mikemike, he didn't know us.

[Pine]

Umm, this was definitely not set up in favor of scum. Both actual Mafia were plain Goons, and the Traitor didn't know the identities of the Mafia. Had mikemike been a full Goon, then yeah, that'd be lopsided. This was simply a fairly mountainous setup with a dash of flavor.

[Pine]

Note to self: PL the shit out of mikemike next game I play with him, he's never been lynched before.

Umm, in regard to my lynch. I apologize to my scumbuddies. I replaced into a scummy slot and felt that in order to make the transition smooth, I had to keep up the bold and brash manner Xalxe was playing, then gradually step it down. Hammering voided was just a bad, bad idea that I couldn't resist. I recall being very tired at the time and deciding "Screw it! He's going down, and I don't like what he just did when I'm Town, either." Well done to Setael, if it hadn't been for you I might have been able to pull out of that spiral.

PE: If mikemike had known who we were it would have been unbalanced. He really was something of a free agent this game, taking shots in the dark.

[Pine]

It made me laugh quite a bit

[Pine]

Faraday, you sexy, sexy man.

I must learn from you. The cartoon was sheer brilliance.

Anything I said about you being a bad player was just for effect. Nothing personal!

No, I fucked up really bad this game. This is by far my worst scum performance thus far.

[Pine]

I hope you're j/k, VM

[Pine]

It's because you have a chick in your avatar, dude.

[Pine]

So...a move which ultimately contributed more to the Town wincon than any summary you might have given, ultimately got me lynched, and came damn close to a complete scum loss. That's what you're pissed about?

Grow up.

[Pine]

If I'd been Town, I would understand your frustration. We were opponents.

Grow.

Up.

[Pine]

I've got no beef with Voided, Neil. This is all coming from him.

[Pine]

Pine: No, I'm not joking. And that's not sarcastic.

[Pine]

Textbook Appeal to Emotion to defuse Setael, textbook Argument from Repetition to mislynch Cecily.

[Pine]

Dead QT

[Pine]

So...what conclusions did you draw (at the time) from those notes?