Succession Mafia II: OVER!


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Post Post #17 (isolation #0) » Sun May 22, 2011 5:39 pm

Post by Herodotus »

/confirm
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Post Post #52 (isolation #1) » Mon May 23, 2011 4:39 am

Post by Herodotus »

Mr. Flay wrote:Any other questions?

If the recruiters are unlynchable, does that mean they will start by recruiting someone during pregame so that we have targets to hunt and lynch on day 1?
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Post Post #54 (isolation #2) » Mon May 23, 2011 5:26 am

Post by Herodotus »

That's similar to what I was thinking. I was going to suggest a No Lynch if we had a good reason to believe we were all town.

At first I was wondering if they would recruit their entire team during pregame, but I looked at the endgame of Succession 1, and they were recruiting during the game there.
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Post Post #96 (isolation #3) » Mon May 23, 2011 6:20 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Yosarian2 wrote:
Yosarian2 wrote:Really? Huh. If that's true, then we should all stop speculating until day 1 is started, or we might just make it easier for them.
I don't trust Albert and Kinetic saying they've already picked.

Yosarian2 wrote:
Flameaxe wrote: I'd assume with two lynch immune stumps they get some sort of recruit...Otherwise we would be doing absolutely nothing day one.


Well, with the "white flag" rule Flay linked to, if the stump is the only member of his group, the group loses, so I think there has to be at least one extra member of each cult during day 1.
It might work differently in this game. We might have to lynch/kill X players from a given cult to eliminate them, regardless of their total number.
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Post Post #173 (isolation #4) » Tue May 24, 2011 9:26 am

Post by Herodotus »

Magister Ludi wrote:To get a general feel of the game, I'm in favor of each player proclaiming who THEY would of picked should they of been a N0 cult recruiter. It will give a general feeling of the make-up of the mind.
dry-fit: I've seen him play as scum, and although we lynched him, he played well. Also, I haven't seen him around much, so I'd say he's low profile. He's the person I would have picked, but kinetic and Albert might not have the same opinion.
porochaz: I get the impression that he's good, but he doesn't have the profile of Yos2.
Maybe Springlullaby. I don't know how kinetic or Albert think of her.
I was going to vote Porochaz, who is actively lurking, but I don't like posts 126-127 by Spring. Some of it is gut; also, I don't see how Ludi's lists could have been made with a scum motive.
VOTE: Spring

I don't think Yos2 would be recruited immediately. Maybe later if he isn't killed. So we should lynch him on D3 or D4 (have some wifom, recruiters)

Magister Ludi wrote:Could eliminate all players within a year of joining. Too much of a wild card.

I disagree. Someone can make a name for themself pretty quickly. Also, if someone is an alt, kinetic (or Albert) may know about it. Especially kinetic because as a list mod, it's occasionally his job to be aware of alts. Maybe set aside "known newbies". (Though I note it's self-serving for you to suggest this.)

Unrecruitables HAVE to play for the town WC no matter what, but if they are ever outed, its also in the town's best interest to lynch them for fear they are one of the other's cults. And it makes it in the cult's best interest to out such a player to get them lynched, its a plus no matter if its a town PR or the other cult's choice.
I think you or your recruits have night kills that you can use to take care of people you fail to recruit. (guessing based on Succession 1)
I won't necessarily lynch targets by your request because you may be lying.

@DGb: I'm fine with being on your short list for day 1, but I have town reads on some of the others. And I'd rather not see Ludi, in particular, pushed too hard, because he's a newbie and may look scummy even as a townie if he's pressured.
To those saying I'd make a good pick, I'm flattered, but I wasn't chosen. I don't know kinetic at all, and the one time Albert and I played together, I wasn't doing well as mafia. I can provide a link to the game and the daytalk QT if requested.

DrippingGoofball wrote:How would you know he's a VT unless you're the other recruitee or something? How do you know?
Because they have the same role?
But more importantly, how would kinetic and Albert know?

Cobb wrote:Okay, I think Yosarian might be the other recruit.

Cobb wrote:the
other
recruit.

Easy mode on?
UNVOTE: Spring
VOTE: Cobblerfone

Ludi seems town. A little wordy, but that's just posting style. He's looking for recruits, and my gut says it's genuine.
Chrono is playing about 30 times better than I've seen him play before. I'm not sure how he ended up on the lists.
I was thinking that ooba was town, but I can't remember why.
DGb, I want to believe you are town, but asking us to only focus on a few people until day 3 would just help you too much under white flag rules if you're scum.
I have no opinion on xvart yet.
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Post Post #178 (isolation #5) » Tue May 24, 2011 9:43 am

Post by Herodotus »

xvart wrote:I can see this as legitimate since Cobb had not said definitively that the person he was voting (populartajo) was a recruit.

I was going to wait and see what he said about that, but that's what I was thinking. If he meant that he already knew who some first recruit was, and Yos was the second, why wasn't he voting for the first? Or if it was populartajo, he doesn't seem to be playing that way.
Only problem is, it's such an enormous slip that it feels too easy and obvious.

Also, Cobblerfone, what did you mean by "role-doctor"?
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Post Post #188 (isolation #6) » Tue May 24, 2011 10:45 am

Post by Herodotus »

Cobblerfone wrote:
Herodotus wrote:Easy mode on?


What are you going on about? Two recruiters. IF xvart is one, Yosarian is the speculated other. Though, I guess we shouldn't assume that there's only two. It would be rather odd for there to be only one recruit per team in N0 I think.

Herodotus wrote:Also, Cobblerfone, what did you mean by "role-doctor"?


Our proffessions are not our roles. So just because Tajo is a "Proffession-Doctor" doesn't mean he's a "Role-Doctor". That's what I meant. My vote's on Tajo because of something in an ongoing game that he's dead in. I would switch to xvart, but I'm waiting for RaudhrGarm.

To say that there is someone you think might be the other recruit implies that the first recruit is given knowledge, at least to you.

Let me use an example. Suppose we are all standing in a room with 25 chairs. Everyone has an assigned seat, though the assignments aren't public. Two of those chairs are blue, and the other 23 are brown. Someone says "Yosarian2, are you the other person whose seat is blue?" You'd expect the person saying that either is one of the two people whose chairs are blue, or has already identified one person who definitely has a blue seat. Otherwise, they would phrase it as "Yosarian2, are you one of the people whose seat is blue?"

You don't seem like you had already identified someone as a recruit, since you were voting populartajo for mystery reasons. You hadn't said much about xvart, and weren't voting him.

Now that you've indicated you were suspicious of xvart, and just not voting, I'm going to move on. That slip looked too obvious to be a genuine scumslip, though IGMEOY for Day 1.
UNVOTE: Cobbler; VOTE: Spring
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Post Post #193 (isolation #7) » Tue May 24, 2011 11:00 am

Post by Herodotus »

xvart wrote:Nope. Not buying it. The logic/priority list here is flawed because it wouldn't be odd for there to only be one recruit D1; plus, even if there was, you said "the other recruit" meaning one additional, which contradicts your statement about there being more than one recruit per team; and, what does RaudhrGarm saying I'm a VT have to do with populartajo and why are you waiting on him to allegedly move your vote to me?
Are we not all in agreement that the mafia groups probably each have one recruit?

Hero 173: Lets not start the active lurking reasoning less than 24 hours into the game, it just makes you sound silly.
It's too early to say anyone is "lurking", but if porochaz continues the pattern of saying "we should scumhunt as normal" and "lol, DGb fakeclaims", without scumhunting, he'll win my vote soon.

@Cobblerfone: PR's are not an indication of alignment in this game.
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Post Post #198 (isolation #8) » Tue May 24, 2011 12:30 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Zdenek wrote:I know it's been said before, but simply to minimize risk, I don't think that anyone (who isn't an alt) with a recent join date is a reasonable candidate to have been recruited last night. So unless cobbler is an alt, I would not support his lynch today. Also, at the risk of being shown to be an idiot, I think that Magister Ludi is an alt.
Note: Albert and/or kinetic may have decided to choose at random, so let's keep our elimination of candidates guarded. Ludi as an alt? Possibly.

Zdenek wrote:
Xvart wrote:
The irony, so-to-speak, of my post is that DGBs case on me is based on a timestamp.

I don't believe that xvart actually believes this.
I believe her original vote for him had to do with a timestamp, and this turned into her case, so I believe xvart believes this, whether he's scum or town.

Zdenek wrote:Herodotus, could you explain how this
Herodotus wrote:
I'd rather not see Ludi, in particular, pushed too hard, because he's a newbie and may look scummy even as a townie if he's pressured.

is compatible with your earlier vote on Cobblerfone?

I don't see any incompatibility. I would not have wanted any pressure on Cobblerfone if I thought he was town, either. But Cobbler appeared to basically claim scum, and without any pressure.
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Post Post #208 (isolation #9) » Tue May 24, 2011 4:03 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Wut what? I already explained how Cobbler's comment resembled a scumslip.

I don't see any credible reason to think Ludi is scum.
He's acted in a protown way by trying to take advantage of the town's setup knowledge in looking for scum. Hunting for recruits -- that's the point of the game for town...? Outguessing Albert and Kinetic may be hard or even lead to inaccurate results, but it's a valid avenue of approach.
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Post Post #230 (isolation #10) » Wed May 25, 2011 4:23 am

Post by Herodotus »

springlullaby wrote:
Herodotus
, are you voting me because I'm voting Ludi and "you wouldn't want him pressured too hard". If so, why me?

As for Ludi's list, I think it's obvious that telling scum what you think they are thinking while your goal is to outguess them is not very wise.

1) I voted you because you were on my list of people I might choose as a first recruit, and you were the first to attack someone I thought was town.
2) I can accept that as your point of view even though I disagree, but there's a big difference between a townie making an unwise decision and a scum. Ludi saying who he would have made a first recruit or encouraging others to do the same gives scum no advantage, because they can't change their minds. It may influence their decision of whom they will recruit in the future, but any scumhunting we do will have that effect, and we should be resetting our reads at the beginning of each day regardless.

What don't you like, Nobody?

Not sure what I think of the balance of white flag here. We could lynch scum every day and still lose, if they successfully recruit each night and don't get vigged.
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Post Post #263 (isolation #11) » Wed May 25, 2011 2:44 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Yosarian2 wrote:My vote on him really has nothing to do with DGB's vote.

Your reasons are similar though. You both used a profile of your expectations of who should be recruited pregame.

Battousai wrote:
Herodotus wrote:Wut what? I already explained how Cobbler's comment resembled a scumslip.


That's not the problem that I saw. I want to know why you think we should treat a noobie with kid gloves. I want to know why I shouldn't press on someone I find to be scummy, because he may make a scumslip (and be town).

If you want to do it, you don't need my permission. But newbie townies who are under pressure often start to look like scum - at least in the judgement of the majority. Cite: personal observation of games I've played in.

Porochaz wrote:Didn't we discuss this already? Why are you wasting time?

My reaction exactly.

@Albert: Do you have daytalk? Assuming things are symmetric between you and Kinetic, I may have a lead, but I'd rather not elaborate until you've answered.
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Post Post #264 (isolation #12) » Wed May 25, 2011 2:46 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Herodotus wrote:@Albert: Do you have daytalk? Assuming things are symmetric between you and Kinetic, I may have a lead, but I'd rather not elaborate until you've answered.

I suppose kinetic can try answering too, but I'm not going to be overly trusting, obviously.
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Post Post #272 (isolation #13) » Wed May 25, 2011 5:31 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Magister Ludi wrote:One, if xvart is being run up to a lynch today, isn't that exactly the sort of player they would avoid? How come no one mentioned this.
Couldn't you say that about anyone who is lynched -- that they wouldn't have been chosen because they were possibly going to get lynched?

Magister Ludi wrote:Also, Is it even possible to beat the cult? If we wipe out one cult somehow today, the other will always be recruiting even as we lynch their members, always staying one member ahead of an ability we have to stop them.
Porochaz and I just talked about that.
I guess it's safe to assume that the town has reasonable winning chances, even if it might not be clear how that works mathematically. It might be best not to discuss why if it's because of PR's. It's also possible that the cults have a limited number of recruitment shots.

That's worth repeating, I think, to motivate the town.

It's possible that the cults have a limited number of recruitment shots. If so, very few of us will be recruited, so no one should let their town play suffer in the hope that they'll be recruited later.
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Post Post #274 (isolation #14) » Wed May 25, 2011 5:45 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Magister Ludi wrote:Who would you have picked, Herodotus?
(Sorry. I tried to hold back my inner grammar nazi, but failed.)


http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p3070234
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Post Post #353 (isolation #15) » Thu May 26, 2011 4:46 pm

Post by Herodotus »

bvoigt wrote:
Herodotus wrote:
Herodotus wrote:@Albert: Do you have daytalk? Assuming things are symmetric between you and Kinetic, I may have a lead, but I'd rather not elaborate until you've answered.

I suppose kinetic can try answering too, but I'm not going to be overly trusting, obviously.


Are you saying you trust Albert more than Kinetic? If so, why?

Because I said that I had a reason to suspect that I knew whom kinetic had recruited, depending on the answer to my question; so kinetic theoretically has a reason not to want to reveal that information. (But in fact I was lying, it's Albert's recruit I had a lead on. I reversed it because I thought Albert was more likely to answer, as kinetic has been guarded.) I'll elaborate on my suspicion in the near future.

Also, I see no need for you to echo what I said, then Yos repeated, about Ludi's logic re: the xvart wagon.

Regarding cobbler's claim, I remember seeing it as him responding to the issue of being sure that xvart was town because cobbler was guessing xvart might be unrecruitable because they had the same role name. So I don't think much of the attacks on him over a scum-serving claim. The seed for his claiming was planted before the first votes on him. So if that was a scumplot, it was absurdly subtle.

springlullaby wrote:What, ABR, are you saying that Tanarin was your recruit?

He's saying that. But he's just messing with us because he knows DGb is faking the daykill ability.
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Post Post #358 (isolation #16) » Thu May 26, 2011 5:22 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Magister Ludi wrote:Maybe I underestimate peoples motivations here. DGB, is your preferred play to survive, get hopefully recruited by the CR's, and win with that particular cult? Because Its like getting blood from a stone from you and several other players.

I think you're underestimating how utterly pointless your questions appear to some of us. Even after I answered your question, you complained that I named more than one person.

And why is it that you don't seem to think that populartajo, Raudhr, dry-fit, bunnylover, etc. aren't trying to pass time until they're recruited?
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Post Post #376 (isolation #17) » Fri May 27, 2011 11:12 am

Post by Herodotus »

Flameaxe wrote:If he's a good a chance as any, why vote him over any? Any has been pretty scummy.

He has been lurking hard, but I don't think we're allowed to lynch the backup mod. :mrgreen:
Battousai wrote:Post 344- No one cares what would have happened if one of the recruitments failed N0. It didn't happen, and it will have no impact later on.
How do you know that the recruiter who didn't recruit you succeeded?

Yos2, why not briefly state the difference between the earlier question and your recent one?

@Mod: could we have prods for everyone eligible
(as opposed to just populartajo)
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Post Post #379 (isolation #18) » Fri May 27, 2011 12:06 pm

Post by Herodotus »

I think I get the joke. It's funny because Albert's the one who recruited you. Saying kinetic might have recruited you is irony because Albert knows that's impossible.
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Post Post #435 (isolation #19) » Sat May 28, 2011 4:56 pm

Post by Herodotus »

@Flameaxe:
If finding the recruitee was only a matter of outguessing the CR's, then we'd get stuck in the circular reasoning and couldn't conclude anything. But we could also find the recruitees if they "make a mistake" in the sense of accidentally revealing themself as scum. Players who are new or who are lynched often are more likely to make a mistake. The CR's don't need or want to take that risk. Also, a newer player would not be able to help the CR as much in analyzing PR's and future recruitment choices. So unless we find something seriously scummy from them (including lurking), it's reasonable to count the players kinetic and Albert don't expect to play well as less suspect than those with experience. On day 1, that is. Disregard this analysis for future days.

On the other hand, it's also possible that one or both of them just used some random method to choose a name. I think if I were a CR, I'd use a weighted random selection.

Spring wrote:Cobbler, what do you think of that? Wanna vote yourself to prove that you aren't scum?
Um, what?

@Populartajo:
Read the game. [Redacted], and [redacted].

Do you disagree with my point that we shouldn't rule anyone out as guaranteed not to have been selected?


@Yos2:
Why did Cobbler claim?

Cobb wrote:Let me last at least one night. If I'm scum the other scum will kill me anyway. From what I understand if the recruiters try to recruit an unrecruitable or another scum, the recruitment becomes a kill.
:sigh:
Yes, I'm sure they will want to waste their recruit ability on someone they know they can't recruit.
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Post Post #449 (isolation #20) » Sun May 29, 2011 2:04 pm

Post by Herodotus »

springlullaby wrote:
ThAdmiral wrote:
springlullaby wrote:I'm thinking yes. I'm thinking there might be other scum than cult too. But maybe I'm wrong.

But surely they couldn't be recruitable which would cause problems.


You've got a point, the two scenarios doesn't match. And I've done the meta on him, it's possible the whole thing was just newbie stuff. Still, I'm mad at him.

Could you elaborate on the "mad at him" issue here?

ooba wrote:What do you think about the fact that it might be their pregame plan if any of the other teamsters get's wagoned?

I suppose that can't be ruled out, but for now I'm on Cobbler's side.

We haven't heard from nobody in far too long. I'm still waiting for an answer to a question I didn't ask anybody.
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Post Post #472 (isolation #21) » Mon May 30, 2011 5:45 am

Post by Herodotus »

springlullaby wrote:Herodotus, what do you want me to elaborate on? I'm thinking now that Cobbler may lean more toward scummy town rather than scum. Because it does make more sense to read him as a 'retard'.

I still don't see the xvart wagon. I would like Ludi to answer my posts adressed to him.

I asked you to elaborate because I wanted to understand whether you had a town or a scum read on him. It looked much more like a town read.
You've kept your vote on him, apparently because you're mad and not because you think he's scum.

@Battousai:
It seems to me that Ludi is one of those playing toward the town win condition, and not playing against it hoping to be recruited. (Whether the recruitees would play similarly to someone hoping to be recruited is questionable, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.)

FoS: Seraphim
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Post Post #474 (isolation #22) » Mon May 30, 2011 6:19 am

Post by Herodotus »

The point of finding people who are acting scummy is to find the scum, and it works because scum are more likely to act scummy.
The point of trying to outguess the CR's is to find the scum, and it might work because the CR's are rational humans.

It wouldn't have a high success rate on its own, because at best we could narrow the likely recruits to maybe 8-10, but it's still a way of looking for scum.

It could be done by the scum in a fake way; the mafia might put out the idea that someone they want to mislynch would have been recruited. But the same can be said for typical scumhunting as well; scum can make a case on a townie.
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Post Post #521 (isolation #23) » Tue May 31, 2011 10:44 am

Post by Herodotus »

populartajo wrote:
populartajo wrote:
Herodotus wrote:And I'd rather not see Ludi, in particular, pushed too hard, because he's a newbie and may look scummy even as a townie if he's pressured.


Herodotus wrote:
Cobb wrote:Okay, I think Yosarian might be the other recruit.

Cobb wrote:the
other
recruit.

Easy mode on?
UNVOTE: Spring
VOTE: Cobblerfone


yeah, easy mode on.

Vote: Herodotus



everyone, thoughts of this


@Cobbler: There's nothing to apologize for in post 494, except maybe that you didn't vote in it.

Some of what Kinetic said about DGb is true, but I think he threw in the part about useful posts being bad in order to demoralize. After two games with her, I'd like to think that was false.

Yosarian2 wrote:I don't get at all how you can vote me for that. It's not at all anti-town, and while it's not all that likely to get us information, it's worth a shot, and it's at least entertaining to try.
It's not directly anti-town, but it does look like active lurking.

@xvart: Your opinions of Spring, Cobbler, and Yos2, please?
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Post Post #522 (isolation #24) » Tue May 31, 2011 10:50 am

Post by Herodotus »

Nobody Special wrote:
Herodotus wrote:I'd rather not see Ludi, in particular, pushed too hard, because he's a newbie and may look scummy even as a townie if he's pressured.

I don't like this. Not at all.

In other news, I'm fairly happy with the xvart case. If he starts acting less scummy and more townish, I'd be willing to flip to Yos.

VOTE: xvart


DGB: Hypothetically, if xvart were already dead, who would you vote for now? (I have my reasons for asking this. Trust me here.)

Herodotus wrote:What don't you like, Nobody?

New question: Are you going to flake out?
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Post Post #541 (isolation #25) » Tue May 31, 2011 6:38 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Battousai wrote:I'll say this one last time.... YOU CAN NOT OUTGUESS THE CR, IT IS CIRCULAR LOGIC. You say they would be more inclined to pick a powerful person who is hard to lynch and will help lead and define their cult. What if they thought you'd think that and went with a newish person or someone who gets lynched early a lot? Then you'd just eliminated the recruits and are now throwing your net on land instead of the small pond.

I still believe that would be an unnecessary risk. I don't know if I didn't explain it well before or you simply disagree, but I'll try once more.

If a CR chooses someone who plays very well as scum, that player has a chance of being able to talk their way out of being lynched, even if they take some attacks for being seen as a likely target.
If a CR chooses someone who doesn't play well as scum, that player may screw up and make a scumslip or be caught by people focusing on behavioural scumhunting.

So my position is still: If a newbie or known low-skilled player ends up being very, very scummy on day 1, then we lynch them, but the bar should be high.
And no one has been scummy enough to hit that bar so far.

Tanarin wrote:Question I have for the people who have played DGB before:

How hard is she to lynch?

DrippingGoofball
Mafia Piñata

Incidentally, I said earlier that she and I have played together twice, but I wasn't counting the game in which she replaced in after I died. I've seen her lynched in 2 of those 3 games, though in the most recent, she was trying to be lynched.

Tanarin wrote:I think ThAdmiral made a damn good point. Whoever is the one recruited would indeed be active, if not MORE active D1, Even if it draws them heat.

Lurking is not a town tell.
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Post Post #559 (isolation #26) » Wed Jun 01, 2011 8:15 am

Post by Herodotus »

springlullaby wrote:
@Herodotus
Why are you still voting me?
As of the time when you asked, I have found no towntells from you. Not one thing that makes me think you might be town. And you would have been a good recruitment choice.
But what you said about kinetic/DGb is making me think (though I consider it relevant meta for those unfamiliar with DGb, even while I'm confounded that confirmed scum would be helpful). Do you believe kinetic was trying to avert the xvart wagon in particular?

If Chronopie will be V/LA for multiple weeks, that playerslot needs either a vig or a replacement.
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Post Post #577 (isolation #27) » Wed Jun 01, 2011 7:48 pm

Post by Herodotus »

DrippingGoofball wrote:
Pick one.

xvart
Yosarian
Tanain
Seraphim
RaudhGarm
Magister Ludi
Herodotus
bvoigt
Chronopie

xvart is the leading wagon.

NEEDS MORE LULLABIES.

Translation: There's no sensible reason for you to have excluded Springlullaby. Do you have a town read on her? Is it because she has done something in this game that shows she wasn't recruited?

Also, it's pretty clear from my play that I'm town so far. If I get recruited, it will be obvious because I'm terrible as scum. Note to the recruiters: you're best off killing me if you can. If you recruit me, I'll probably be lynched, but if you don't recruit me, I probably won't be :-P .
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Post Post #613 (isolation #28) » Thu Jun 02, 2011 11:15 am

Post by Herodotus »

Yosarian2 wrote:The truth is, though, that while I directed that question to the two cult leaders, I was really more interested in how other people would respond to it.

Don't leave us waiting.
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Post Post #628 (isolation #29) » Thu Jun 02, 2011 6:24 pm

Post by Herodotus »

^^ That's no less information than when roles are assigned randomly. Even if you are 100% unwilling to try to outguess the recruiters, that only means you start with no informaiton. But then you have about 25 pages to consider. So it can't be worse than a non-cult game (except for the presumably small number of scum).
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Post Post #666 (isolation #30) » Fri Jun 03, 2011 3:44 pm

Post by Herodotus »

ooba wrote:@Zenek: Yes, because I think both recruits would have attacked Yos at least once in the day. And no, I don't think he's recruited.

:?

Bunnylover wrote:I don't like how he tried to take a early control of the game. He tried to make us focus on certain players instead of letting everyone put in their info.

I believe DGb prefers to be referred to with feminine pronouns.
What? You weren't talking about DGb? But you just described her playstyle, and no one else's...
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Post Post #667 (isolation #31) » Fri Jun 03, 2011 3:57 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Cobblerfone wrote:ALRIGHT. SERAPHIM WAS ONLINE. I SAW HIM. HE HAS RECENTLY POSTED IN OTHER GAMES.

A lot, in fact. He has many posts since his last one here, spread throughout the week. But this may only be a sign that he forgot about the game. :mad:
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Post Post #670 (isolation #32) » Fri Jun 03, 2011 5:15 pm

Post by Herodotus »

@Mod: is Seraphim still playing in this game?
I am dealing with Seraphim's activity. -Flay
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Post Post #705 (isolation #33) » Sat Jun 04, 2011 3:22 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Nobody Special wrote:And so, because you, as one lone player, have decided unilaterally that he isn't scum, we don't get to see his flip.

Thanks, ever so.

FoS: Batt


P-Edit: :roll:

Why the FoS? "an unknown thing" =/= "a scummy thing".

Not liking bvoit's request for flavour, but it looks like one of those things that is slightly more likely to be townie anti-town play than scum anti-town play.
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Post Post #828 (isolation #34) » Sun Jun 05, 2011 3:52 pm

Post by Herodotus »

ʎ's setup speculation doesn't seem to go anywhere. What I think happened is that Kin and Albert each had to send the mod three names, the mod removed any unrecruitables, then randomly chose from the remaining names. Or even more likely, the mod didn't assign roles (like unrecruitable) until after resolving recruitment (and again, they each had to send in three names and one of the three was randomly chosen).
Edit: what ooba said.
Or maybe they each picked up a total of two recruits, and now can only recruit every other night.
But I also think we don't know and won't know soon.

ʎ's contributions don't impress me, but Cecily doesn't seem like a big recruitment target. I've never done this before, but I'll be skimming her posts today (which may antagonize her further, but I'm okay with that) unless she becomes scummy enough to lynch.

@Seraphim: Congratulations.
Any estimate of when you will catch up?
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Post Post #839 (isolation #35) » Sun Jun 05, 2011 7:34 pm

Post by Herodotus »

UNVOTE: Springlullaby VOTE: Chronopie

He'd be a decent choice for Kinetic if Kinetic wasn't inclined to do a thorough meta of many people. Hasn't said much, and is now joining the xvart wagon while avoiding responsibility for it.
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Post Post #921 (isolation #36) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 10:41 am

Post by Herodotus »

I'm not sure my opinions really fit with the 3 candidates survey, but:
Spring
Chronopie
Yos2
in no particular order, with:
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted

behind them, in that order. Edit: that's probably too many names to list without helping the CR's.

Some absurd overreactions to an irrelevant comment back there.
If you care about someone making incorrect assumptions about you, you should stay as far away from the internet as you can get. Or do the opposite: link your account to your video blog, biography, etc.

ooba wrote:Kinetic's bringing this up cause his recruit is getting some heat over the last few pages. Combine that with the fact that he tried to disparage my "I've found scum" post even before I posted (and after I'd said I'll be taking a look at Magister and tajo), I'm guessing tajo is Kinetic's recruit ..

Chronopie is a good fit for the first supposition. I had just placed a third vote, and there were two non-Chronopie-voters who had just named him among their top three.

Bunnylover wrote:Do you understand why this is scummy :O?
Lets lynch the lurkers, because the cult recuriters will go after someone who actually has a chance to be lynched and leave alive the people who contribute who probably are recruited and therefore has a higher chance of been scum.
If this wasn't a cult game, your thinking would be correct. Because this is a cult game, your thinking is wrong.
Cult plays differently from scum.

I don't understand you at all.

DrippingGoofball wrote:Who would recruit Chronopie? Even for WIFOM reasons?

Someone who hasn't played with him, but saw that he has a scummy for his play as mafia (even if it's a team award). Especially if the recruiters sent three names, as ooba and I thought might be likely.

@Chronopie, Albert, and Kinetic: Has either CR played with Chronopie before? If so, link to game(s) please?
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Post Post #928 (isolation #37) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 4:02 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Bunnylover wrote:trying to scum hunt isn't how you cult hunt.

Just because there are differences doesn't mean that doing something scummy is no longer a scumtell. And I don't see how it makes NS scummier.
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Post Post #933 (isolation #38) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 5:43 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Someone you expect will survive. They can't easily tell who will in the future be a town read. To some extent they can't even reliably predict who will lurk.
And I'd rather see those who are contributing live, in general. Lynching lurkers means you're more likely to lynch scum, and it means that on later days, the survivors will be easier to read because they participated.
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Post Post #979 (isolation #39) » Wed Jun 08, 2011 2:08 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Yosarian2 wrote:
Flameaxe wrote:
Re Chrono: Chrono can easily be seen as a probable recruit, as someone who was recruited for a good majority of S1. It wouldn't surprise me at least one recruit is a returning player.


Is that really your whole case against Chrono?

I understand that you disagree? Do you find him likely town?
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Post Post #982 (isolation #40) » Wed Jun 08, 2011 2:41 pm

Post by Herodotus »

If there's a convincing case that he's town, I want to hear that. Humor me.
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Post Post #1016 (isolation #41) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:42 am

Post by Herodotus »

populartajo wrote:I understand that you think Chrono was recruited?

No, I don't. He's pretty null for me, in fact. I voted him mostly because I wanted to see another wagon.

UNVOTE: Chronopie pending a case for or against him, though his lynch would be tolerable. He certainly hasn't done anything helpful.

I retract my list of 3.
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Post Post #1028 (isolation #42) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:17 pm

Post by Herodotus »

xvart wrote:
Chronopie, 116 wrote:then ofc we have the additional layer of wifom in whether they're saying that in order to distance/buddy in order to get me lynched, thus not one of their own teams, thus better for them. :?

It is also interesting to note that Chronopie includes Kinetic in his WIFOM argument as being identified as a recruit when
Kinetic had said nothing about Chronopie
, so his inclusion of himself into Kinetic's alleged WIFOM is highly suspect.

Bolded is inaccurate...
Kinetic wrote:I'm going to go with:

Fritz
DGB
and either Chronpie or Yos, leaning toward Yos right now


xvart wrote:Furthermore, when Kinetic started talking about how great it was that the town was wasting time with ThAdmiral's list function is precisely the point in time when Chronopie was getting a fair number of nods towards a likely recruit target. As I said before, there is no reason Kinetic would say something like this because if the town was legitimately wasting time why should he care unless his recruit was looking like a prime target for lynch.

You're not giving kinetic much credit for subtlety or ability to deceive.

populartajo wrote:who wants to vote to see ANOTHER WAGON?

I did.
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Post Post #1052 (isolation #43) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 4:19 am

Post by Herodotus »

Porochaz wrote:Woah there, that seems arbitrary. I didn't list mine in order of preference and if I did it wouldn't be a simple 3/2/1 exercise anyway.
Either arbitrary or self-serving.

populartajo wrote:Why arent you looking for RECRUITERS
I'm not looking for recruiters because they are listed in the first post. :? The rest of your question is loaded rhetoric.

Thad
Spring
Seraphim

again in no particular order.
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Post Post #1056 (isolation #44) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:55 am

Post by Herodotus »

@Tajo:
He hasn't done much hunting, but has kept up with avoiding prods.
He sheeped with the xvart wagon and has xvart as his top candidate for lynch, but has made almost no public evaluation of xvart.
He asked Albert a joke question and complained when he ignored it (quoted for reference below. Compare: your accusation toward Yos2.
As you quoted me saying, he's operating the list in a self-serving way.

ThAdmiral wrote:
ThAdmiral wrote:
Albert B. Rampage wrote:So....anyone looking for a job?

Doing what?
And what's the hourly rate?

You never answered this...
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Post Post #1060 (isolation #45) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 7:25 am

Post by Herodotus »

True, but is that one instance of sheeping + reaching scummy enough to exceed everything from your top three scumreads? Even though others have been sheeping as well?
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Post Post #1147 (isolation #46) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:11 am

Post by Herodotus »

VOTE: Yosarian2
I would switch to xvart to avoid a no lynch.

Main reasons:
He'd be in the top half of candidates for recruitment, and I could see the recruiters expecting him to be able to deflect the "good candidate" argument enough to survive the WIFOM battle.
Sheeping attacks on xvart, Cobbler, and Ludi.
The attack on Cobbler is particularly suspicious because Cobbler claims to be a town PR that cult can't recruit to serve their purposes. It's a possible fakeclaim, but I don't think so.
Comes off scummier than Ludi in their interactions with each other.

Overall, I think he's playing toward the scum win condition. I'm don't know whether he's in a scum faction yet, or is counting on being recruited into one later. But I simply can't tell right now who has been recruited.
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Post Post #1209 (isolation #47) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:10 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Yosarian2 wrote:
Herodotus wrote:Sheeping attacks on xvart, Cobbler, and Ludi.


Wrong on all three counts. None of those were "sheeping", unless "sheeping" means "any time anyone attacks anyone that anyone else has ever attacked".
Here is how I see your xvart vote:
Yos: The scum will probably recruit someone of the following description: (general qualifications that about 1/3 of the playerlist meets)
DGb: Yes, and specifically, they chose xvart!
Others: I agree, vote: xvart. (discuss, discuss)
Yos: Yeah, I was thinking of xvart before; vote: xvart. (ignore xvart almost entirely, but park vote)

With regard to cobbler and Ludi, they were both looking town (to me), but had wagons on them, when you started finding them scummy.
These were the three earliest viable wagons, and you supported all of them. That can be explained either by you legitimately considering them the three scummiest players, or by you being scum. The first explanation requires a coincidence.
Battousai also supported all of them at some point IIRC, but there is other evidence that he is not cult-recruited so far.

Yosarian2 wrote:
The attack on Cobbler is particularly suspicious because Cobbler claims to be a town PR that cult can't recruit to serve their purposes.


Yes, it's a completely unconfirmable claim that town are very reluctant to lynch. That's why it's a great scum claim.

That being said, you'll notice I never actually voted him at any point today, because I'm uncomfortable with the risk that he might be telling the truth.
I believe I asked you long ago something like "what led Cobbler to claim?"

Yes, you haven't moved your vote once today. That means either that you're town and very confident about xvart being scum, or you're scum. But if you're town and confident that xvart is scum, why did you say so little about him and ask him no questions? I just ISO'ed you and searched for "xvart". You have said nothing about what makes you think he's scum other than his being a desirable recruitment candidate. I just checked again. Nothing, other than one point when you quoted a paragraph from Battousai and said you agreed, comes close to discussing xvart's play in this game.
Flameaxe wrote:On another, related, note: How moronic is this game coming to if we are using the same logic as the RVS two days before deadline? "I'm guessing XXXXXX would be a good recruit based on nothing in the 50 fucking pages of thread but pure speculation" shouldn't be a serious wagon this late into the day.
You should ISO Yos2 and search for xvart, like I did.

Katsuki wrote:Come to think of it, a vig list is extremely anti-town.
Not on day one of this game from someone who is likely to be lynched. I think it's null.

Andrius wrote:NS is town (because I am town and I don't think we've ever been opposite alignments before).
This is obviously silly faillogic. I assume it's code for "gut or meta".

xvart is right that the wagon on him is questionable; it's also full of parked votes and little argument after the first few RL days, which, on day one, are characteristic of a group that isn't scumhunting. BUT, assuming there are no teams of scum, I'm not sure this is much of a defense per se.
If you had been working all along like you have recently, the wagon on you may have gone away...

Battousai wrote:The cult may be able to use their powers on the building and not just a player.

Was thinking the same. If they can mass-kill or mass-recruit based on buildings, then planned meetups are super dangerous.
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Post Post #1214 (isolation #48) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:22 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Flameaxe wrote:
You should ISO Yos2 and search for xvart, like I did.


Which doesn't show anything damning against Yos that couldn't be damning for about 5 other people. Your point?
xvart wrote:
Herodotus, 1209 wrote:You have said nothing about what makes you think he's scum other than his being a desirable recruitment candidate. I just checked again. Nothing, other than one point when you quoted a paragraph from Battousai and said you agreed, comes close to discussing xvart's play in this game.

This is the predominate trend. You could ISO anyone and pretty much get the same result.

I hadn't noticed that. I did notice that there has been a lot of sheeping, and figured that was originally part of the trend that many people are playing to potential future win conditions and recently part of the trend of compromising for realistic lynches.

I like my vote better than I like either of your votes right now.

@Andrius: The second part of what you quoted was about xvart.
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Post Post #1234 (isolation #49) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 5:51 pm

Post by Herodotus »

DrippingGoofball wrote:
Herodotus wrote:
Katsuki wrote:Come to think of it, a vig list is extremely anti-town.
Not on day one of this game from someone who is likely to be lynched. I think it's null.


It is. It is quite scummy. Think about it.


I can see how it would be useful to him as scum in the scenario that he wasn't under heavy suspicion and wasn't the lead wagon. But if he is lynched and his recruiter is removed from the game due to the white flag rule, a vig list isn't going to give him a new chance to win. Or even if his group stays in (either because he evades being lynched or because he isn't the only member) the list may be useful for connections or ignored by the vigs. I think it will only be taken seriously if xvart is lynched and flips town.

What do you think of the other vig lists that have been made previously?
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Post Post #1304 (isolation #50) » Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:43 pm

Post by Herodotus »

No, I'm pretty sure he was at 12 before you voted.
But I'm here and will hammer if needed.

Also: it might be best to limit twilight talking more than usual.
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Post Post #1306 (isolation #51) » Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:46 pm

Post by Herodotus »

populartajo wrote:i just hate that people are playing to future win conditions rather than the current ones

I do too, but I think part of it might be based on what role they enjoy playing more. Those who like to be scum may be more inclined to speculate that they will be recruited and potentially win as cult.
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Post Post #1317 (isolation #52) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 6:34 pm

Post by Herodotus »

I was expecting more vig kills.

PARTIAL_RESET(reads.all)

Katsuki, who do you think was recruited last night?
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Post Post #1338 (isolation #53) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 3:38 am

Post by Herodotus »

@Ludi: I was expecting more vig kills because giving town multiple kills per cycle is the most obvious way to avoid the runaway double-recruiting problem. Apparently this setup uses a different method. One possibility is a limited number of recruitment shots, another is even/odd night recruitment.

I agree with most of Yos2's post (preview edit: the one to Battousai). But the only way in which a no-lynch would be
directly
better than a lynch for a given scum is if a lynch would put someone from their own team in danger. Assuming they had only one recruit each, that means a no-lynch was only better if the recruit would be lynched or would become a top candidate for vigging/lynching after the lynchee died. And Battousai was in no danger of being lynched and no clear danger of being vigged.

@DGb: :( Don't forget to dance.
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Post Post #1382 (isolation #54) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 5:15 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Kinetic wrote:BTW: DGB's power was to test people who were recruited at a particular location, but it is only useful on even nights. The fact that she "changed it" means she is lying for some reason.
This may as well be Proto-Uralic. What does "changed it" refer to, and what are you talking about?

Porochaz wrote:She and going by my self made rule of yesterday of disagreeing with everything you say has made me feel better with my vote.
You like DGb for scum largely because Tanarin disagrees?
Do you think they are partners?
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Post Post #1408 (isolation #55) » Sun Jun 19, 2011 2:04 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Magister Ludi wrote:Top Recruit Targets for Scum: (people who are good but played a low/very low profile day one)
Seraphim
ooba
I like your reasoning, but Seraphim was at risk of being vigged.

A short listBvoigt
Fritzler
Flameaxe
Ooba
Populartajo
Porochaz
^^ I think that's a decent list of select N1 recruitment targets, though the scum may have based their decision on the target's positions or anticipated abilities.

Yosarian2 wrote:Not quite, but pro-town people usually want to avoid lynching power roles. Scum would love to, especially since half the power roles in Sucession I were unrecruitable.
I know there's a difference between "Unrecruitable" and "Has an Action". But I said almost the exact same thing you said, yesterday.

DrippingGoofball wrote:But that stupid ordered list threw everything off, because the scum could have used that information to recruit, tainting any result we would have gotten with a random speedlynch day 1.
The same thing is still possible, it's just that there is additional data.
The plan as you described it today is ten times more modest than you suggested during day 1 that it would be.

DrippingGoofball wrote:^^^
so town

Because she's disappointed in the number of vig shots, because she's procrastinating, or both?

@Kinetic: I think I figured out your comment about DGb, but clarity may make your case stronger.
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Post Post #1464 (isolation #56) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 2:44 am

Post by Herodotus »

DrippingGoofball wrote:
Yosarian2 wrote:Dripping goofball, you know, I specifically asked you to not do your kamikaze thing this game if you are town.


Yeah but I'm a sucker for kamikaze, I think you know that - I'm hugely sleep-deprived and physically exhausted, and the fact that players are even letting Kinetic's poison entering their arguments is making me so angry I'm completely beside myself.

Completely. Beside. Myself.

It's a small number of people, and you don't even seem to be considering that they may be scum.

Think about it this way: there is probably one or more scum voting for you. There could be as many as four scum voting for you.
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Post Post #1479 (isolation #57) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 9:00 am

Post by Herodotus »

If DGb is lynched today, it won't be because townies are too willing to accept what the confirmed scum say.
It will be because her ego is crowding out the scumhunting.
Unless someone has an actual case against her, we should ignore this.

The following six people should each state which of them are most likely to have been recruited:
Bvoight, Fritzler, Flameaxe, Ooba, Porochaz, Populartajo
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Post Post #1505 (isolation #58) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:01 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Yosarian2 wrote:General thoughts on DGB:

I am 99% sure she was town yesterday.

She'd be one of the most desirable scum recruitment targets last night, since everyone thought she was town yesterday.

That being said, I have only seen her kamakazi and demand to be lynched as town before. She probably could do it as scum, but I haven't seen it happen.

The sudden change of behavior from yesterday to today (going from being opposed to my lynch at the end of the day yesterday to voting me at the start of the day today, for example) can be a sign of someone who's been recruited; sudden changes in behavior is one of the tells I'm looking for. All in all, though, I think we've got more likely suspects then her.
As scum in Pick Your Poison, she did a reaction-gambit-fakeclaim and later intentionally got herself lynched to protect her roleblocker partner, so it's not impossible that she would do what she's doing as scum. But I think she would only do it if in her mind it benefited her team, and I don't see how this would do that. Unless it's just reverse psychology/AtE, but that explanation feels too simplistic.

bvoigt wrote:Do you mean from a cult perspective, or based on their play so far today?
Both, I suppose.

@xvart: I think you got the quote tags wrong in 1502. It's confusing. Also, your unvote; was that supposed to be a vote? Who did you think you were voting?
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Post Post #1506 (isolation #59) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:04 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Oh, I'm taking bvoigt off the list; it's down to:
Flameaxe
Fritzler
Ooba
Porochaz
Populartajo

I wasn't aware of Fritzler dying often. Does that mean you're generally killed by the scum? Lynched? Other?
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Post Post #1510 (isolation #60) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:14 pm

Post by Herodotus »


Ok, but here it seems that the mafia aren't killing, unless they killed dry-fit, or were both roleblocked. So I don't think that would be a factor when the mafia are deciding whether to recruit you or not.
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Post Post #1552 (isolation #61) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 9:25 am

Post by Herodotus »

Seraphim wrote:There is a high likelihood that Yos wasn't scum previous to last night, jury's out, but I don't think he's been recruited yet. I don't want to claim my ability but I think it should be blindingly obvious.

Also, why do you keep mispelling my name? "Serephem"? It's Seraphim.

Given all the information we have, I say we either lynch Ludi or Cobbler.

Vote: Magister Ludi

This is one of the worst posts here. Start with a softclaim, move on to focusing on the spelling of your name, make an unsupported assertion that one of two prob-townies is scum, then vote one of said prob-townies.

There has been a lot of badposting in this game, but you've been low activity, and you're capable of playing decently. I expect better from you.
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Post Post #1555 (isolation #62) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 10:00 am

Post by Herodotus »

Herodotus wrote:Oh, I'm taking bvoigt off the list; it's down to:
Flameaxe
Fritzler
Ooba
Porochaz
Populartajo

Now I'm wondering if you should be on it.
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Post Post #1573 (isolation #63) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:35 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Sorry for criticizing the earlier softclaim, I didn't put it together with Seraphim's first post of the day.

@Ludi: you need to reread your role PM and think about it carefully. If it's possible that you are making bad assumptions about how various roles work or the details of what Seraphim is claiming, you may want to drop this issue.
OTOH, if you're a tracker who tracked Seraphim to someone other than Yos2, and you're ignoring that because you think your 133t scumhunting ski11z are better than mod-confirmation that someone is lying, then (I don't know how to finish this sentence politely).

Magister, Cobbler, xvart, Yos2... none of them was recruited last night, and each has only a 1/12 chance - adjusted based on expected chances of being lynched - of having been recruited during night zero. There should be no votes on any of them.

Populartajo - take your finger off the shift key, you'll find it easier to type. Also, DGb is correct that Ludi's reasoning is bad.
But DGb, that's not because he's scum.
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Post Post #1577 (isolation #64) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:17 am

Post by Herodotus »

@Spring: Recruit
ed
last night. Reason: he had the second biggest wagon. Over one third of the town might have considered targeting him with a night action.

What are you looking for when you say you want more?
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Post Post #1580 (isolation #65) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:44 am

Post by Herodotus »

I'll answer your question, but not before you answer the one I already asked you.
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Post Post #1582 (isolation #66) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 3:14 am

Post by Herodotus »

Herodotus wrote:The following six people should each state which of them are most likely to have been recruited:
Bvoight, Fritzler, Flameaxe, Ooba, Porochaz, Populartajo
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Post Post #1607 (isolation #67) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 8:21 am

Post by Herodotus »

Yosarian2 wrote:Explain to me how [cobblerfone's] story makes sense. I just don't see it.
I can give you a plausible explanation, but it would be speculation on his role PM, and I'm not sure that's pro-town, as if he's scum it would help him in fakeclaiming and if he's town it would take away from his own ability to claim.
It may be best if he simply claims so this stupid town can start voting for actual scum. Most likely, all but six players are currently voting for townies.

  • Flameaxe
  • Ooba
  • Porochaz
  • Populartajo


Oh, look at this! All four of the scum who haven't answered my question are voting for either Cobbler or DGb. Am I surprised?



We can vig DGb tonight if it's really necessary. During the day, though, let's lynch scum.
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Post Post #1610 (isolation #68) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 8:44 am

Post by Herodotus »

Cobblerfone wrote:
Herodotus wrote:It may be best if he simply claims so this stupid town can start voting for actual scum.


I think I have six votes on me. If six others want me to claim I will. Still waiting for my suspect to post again.

Maybe you don't need to claim.
I don't like the wagon on you, but I also don't want it to stagnate for a week. Remember the xvart wagon? Sheep just left their votes on him FOREVER, and did no scum hunting.

Who is your suspect, again?
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Post Post #1613 (isolation #69) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 8:52 am

Post by Herodotus »

:headdesk:

:headwall: :headwall: :headwall:

:cries:

Is the person on my list, at least, or will I have to fight against yet another towntunnel?

@Spring: Someone asked someone else an offhand question about why they weren't discussing "the third faction" during D1. I think it was Magister asking DGb.
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Post Post #1614 (isolation #70) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 8:54 am

Post by Herodotus »

Magister Ludi wrote:You're too shy to mention the fourth faction in this game I take it?
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Post Post #1620 (isolation #71) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 10:15 am

Post by Herodotus »

@Ooba:
I thought you had answered, but couldn't find it. I see that you said porochaz.
That leaves flameaxe, porochaz, and populartajo.
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Post Post #1627 (isolation #72) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 11:53 am

Post by Herodotus »

My question isn't pointless. That list has scum on it.

Your comment about where people were looking yesterday is wrong. I tried to exclude xvart's vig list and all the wagons with the type of support that could result in a day 2 lynch.
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Post Post #1628 (isolation #73) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 12:18 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Porochaz wrote: Your short list theory of low profile players has quite a bit of WIFOM in it and odds are as that was where people were looking yesterday, its not going to be where recruiters go today.

Are you calling your play low-profile?
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Post Post #1637 (isolation #74) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 3:34 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Warning: role speculation here.
Seraphim has hinted that he's a rolecop.
Seraphim is a "junkie", and Ooba is the only other "junkie".
So Ooba has a good chance of also being a rolecop.
Kinetic has claimed to have seen DGb's role PM. Either he's lying about that, or he has a rolecop ability at his faction's command.
The rolecop ability could be innate to the CR's, or kinetic may have recruited Ooba.



Porochaz wrote:I have no interest really in answering your question
Not very pro-town.

Porochaz wrote:not only is it an arbitrary list
Oops, I thought I had stated this. I started with the full playerlist excluding the people who are confirmed to me (myself and the recruiters), generally removed names that were on vig lists, generally removed names that either collected many votes or collected a few votes from relatively persuasive people, and generally removed people I otherwise expected not to be recruited.

Porochaz wrote:which I think you could easily put yourself on
This is not a normal townie response.

Porochaz wrote:Your short list theory of low profile players
Porochaz wrote:
Herodotus wrote:Are you calling your play low-profile?
I wouldnt say it was. I was taking it from the comment you made above the initial list.
The majority of the talk yesterday was on players who were non newbies who dont get lynched often but arent as famous as say yos. That correlates with your list.
I don't think there was any clear indication that I was following Magister's criteria.
Regardless, there is a major distinction between a person who is low profile in general, and someone who didn't attract attention on Day 1 of this game.

Porochaz wrote:has quite a bit of WIFOM in it
We're dealing with cults, of course there will be WIFOM. But look at the behaviour of most people: they're attacking the same people who were attacked yesterday. I think the only wagon that could be called "new" is the one on DGb, and there were suspicions on her during Day 1. The recruiters could easily have predicted this and recruited around it.

Porochaz wrote:odds are as that was where people were looking yesterday
I excluded almost everyone at whom people were looking hard yesterday. Exceptions were Ooba, whom DGb mentioned in her list of 4 at gamestart, populartajo, who was Yos2's fourth name, and you, against whom Ladyl made a rage-case that backfired on her.

Porochaz wrote:its not going to be where recruiters go today.
Now who is relying on WIFOM?
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Post Post #1647 (isolation #75) » Thu Jun 23, 2011 3:14 am

Post by Herodotus »

ooba wrote:In 1637, he speculates I might be cult based on Kinetic's info. Therefore, on some level, he believes Kinetic's info to be true...
I do think there is a reasonable chance that kinetic was telling the truth and that he truthfully described DGb's role.

Do you believe that kinetic doesn't know DGb's role?

ooba wrote:Also tries to downplay the DGB lynch in same post
That's a fair point. I haven't been very definitive on whether DGb is town or scum; that's because I feel unsure about her. When I said she can be vigged "if it's really necessary", I meant if people are confident that she's scum, then she can be killed tonight. The hordes of vigilantes have my permission, for what it's worth. If she's town, that will save us a mislynch, and if she's scum, that will eliminate her. But we aren't lynching her; we're lynching one of flameaxe, fritzler, ooba, porochaz, or populartajo.

VOTE: porochaz
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Post Post #1655 (isolation #76) » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:18 am

Post by Herodotus »

Porochaz wrote:
Flameaxe wrote:
we're lynching one of flameaxe, fritzler, ooba, porochaz, or populartajo.


I forget, why exactly are we limiting a lynch down to a list you, from what I can tell, arbitrarily came up with? Why exactly should I be following your lead here?


Queue post from Hero saying your scummy for thinking that.

Huh? He didn't receive his scummy for thinking that. That would violate causality.

Have you no response to any part of the case against you?
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Post Post #1656 (isolation #77) » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:28 am

Post by Herodotus »

Re: Magister
I think I've already made it clear that I think he's town, but to answer some of the questions, he may be confused about how his role works.
What do you two think of him, flameaxe and porochaz?
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Post Post #1667 (isolation #78) » Thu Jun 23, 2011 2:06 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Cobblerfone wrote:On the other hand, a Ludi fakeclaim doesn't make that much sense either. Why try to get Seraphim lynched? I mean, maybe if Ludi was in danger at that point it might make sense. I'll check.
+1

More porochaz votes now.
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Post Post #1679 (isolation #79) » Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:54 am

Post by Herodotus »

Flameaxe wrote:
Flameaxe wrote:
we're lynching one of flameaxe, fritzler, ooba, porochaz, or populartajo.


I forget, why exactly are we limiting a lynch down to a list you, from what I can tell, arbitrarily came up with? Why exactly should I be following your lead here?


Cough cough cough.

We're limiting the lynch to the list I arbitrarily came up with because my guilty result was on one of the people from that list. (The other names were included because they fit a similar profile, and not because they are particularly suspicious.)
You should follow my lead because this is a smalltown game, so my claim is supported by the flavour.

I see that no one else finds any of those five suspicious.
That's why the CR recruited this person.
It also means I didn't stand a chance of drawing people to the lynch we need without claiming; my attempts to do so were the reason for my obsession with getting people to focus on a small group.
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Post Post #1712 (isolation #80) » Fri Jun 24, 2011 9:55 am

Post by Herodotus »

Yosarian2 wrote:Are you saying that you are a cop with a guilty, but you aren't going to tell us who you got a guilty on?

I have a cop result stating that porochaz is a recruit. I hadn't yet said whom my result was on, but that doesn't mean I wasn't planning to.

I think we should bank some time by lynching soon, now that my result is out.
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Post Post #1718 (isolation #81) » Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:16 am

Post by Herodotus »

Cobblerfone wrote:That is the one, right? If Poro or whoever isn't cult then lynch Hero tomorrow. Unless he admits to gambitting before the lynch. I believe that accounts for all but a few scenarios.

If porochaz is town, I expect to be killed by a vig. I can see the potential advantages if I was left alive to collect another result in case I'm insane and happen to investigate scum tonight, but the vigs would probably prefer to kill me in case I was cult because I might be useful to the cult. And if I was lynched tomorrow for providing an inaccurate result, it would not be an informative wagon.

My role PM doesn't guarantee my sanity. But I'm more than 90% sure my result is accurate.

Herodotus wrote:I have a cop result stating that porochaz is a recruit.
This wasn't quite right. It says he's scum, and I'm assuming there are no factions besides the town and the two cults.
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Post Post #1735 (isolation #82) » Fri Jun 24, 2011 1:56 pm

Post by Herodotus »

populartajo wrote:pretty sure herodotus could have got prozac lynched without having to claim

At the beginning of the day I thought I could, but I failed to draw much attention to him.

As for answering porochaz's questions, you didn't claim miller, so you're confirmed anti-town to me, so I don't feel like I should.
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Post Post #1776 (isolation #83) » Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:15 am

Post by Herodotus »

Seraphim wrote:Exactly, but I definitely don't want any lulzy WIFOM innocent results.

I don't understand what you mean, are you saying you're worried that I would claim an innocent on a scumbuddy?

@Fritzler: You have my permission to start voting. If I have a result that should influence the lynch - either a guilty or an innocent - then I will claim it if and when that's necessary.
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Post Post #1784 (isolation #84) » Tue Jun 28, 2011 10:39 am

Post by Herodotus »

Seraphim wrote:
I don't understand what you mean, are you saying you're worried that I would claim an innocent on a scumbuddy?
That's part of it.

This game differs for a cop in two regards. The first is that the cults don't always want a cop dead; they would rather recruit it and use it to hunt out the other cult. This means that even if you're recruited, your guilty results are still trustworthy, because you're still accountable for them.

However, innocents have dual weaknesses: you might be lying and that player might get recruited later. All innocent results are a game of Russian roulette.
Ok.

populartajo wrote:Hint: every person heavily suspcted the previous days reduce their chance to be scum unless you think that person was recruited previously of their wagons.

thats why cobblerfone wagon is stupid as hell
The argument, from those who have made it, is that he was recruited on N0. If he wasn't, then setting aside suspicion, the fact that he claimed unrecruitable means no one would have tried to recruit him unless the scum felt they knew better.

populartajo wrote:ftr I think Hero is likely cult at this point but for now I think its best to keep him alive.
Let me make sure we're clear. You just said that you want to keep someone alive whom you think is scum. Correct?
VOTE: populartajo

Cobblerfone wrote:I was going to say that that probably means that you found an innocent. But then I realized that if you gave the guilty away immediately we all wouldn't be able to see if anyone's changed.
Why were you going to say that? Do you believe that speculating on my actions and results would help the town?
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Post Post #1797 (isolation #85) » Tue Jun 28, 2011 1:29 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Magister Ludi wrote:The second ability pertains to Herod. Because we 'work the beat' together (cops), I know if he has been recruited that night or not. As it stands he has not been recruited on night one or night two.
I don't think you should have claimed that so soon, but what's done is done.

Unfortunately I would expect your doctoring ability to keep the person alive, not prevent them from being recruited.

Also, if town would lose after two mislynches and one scumlynch I will be disappointed.

Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Ludi, by definition, a Jailkeeper will roleblock any action that is taken on your target.

It's an action immunizer+ roleblocker combined.
No.
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Post Post #1798 (isolation #86) » Tue Jun 28, 2011 1:30 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Seraphim wrote:I received a no result on Yos which would match up with what you're saying. Either that, or I was roleblocked.

I think you're going to need to explain.
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Post Post #1937 (isolation #87) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 7:38 am

Post by Herodotus »

Yosarian2 wrote:I believe ML's role claim, and do not have any information . Weather that says anything about his alignment or not is another question.

Serephim, if you got a "no result" from me on night 1, then why did demand to know what I was doing? That just forced me to claim information for no good reason.

I agree with this post.
But ooba's defense gives me pause. ooba, do you acknowledge how odd it appears that Seraphim requested for Yos2 to claim his target, and semi-stated that he had information about Yos2, but then said he was roleblocked? And you are saying that you know enough about Seraphim's role that this apparent contradiction is not, in fact, a contradiction?

springlullaby wrote:Porochaz was without a doubt Kinetic's recruit. Meaning that our priority should be to take out Kinetic's faction, as such I'm personally totally okay with giving suspected ABR recruits a free ride for the moment,
unless
Kinetic or his recruits are
especially
helpful and give the town something really worthwhile.
springlullaby wrote:Also, if further explanation as to why I have been pestering Kinetic and sucking up to ABR is needed, I can provide if you can't make it out. But right now, I don't think it's necessary.

You're an Albert recruit, then, and not a kinetic recruit?
If so, we can work out a deal. Otherwise, be prepared to join your buddy in federal custody.

kinetic is funny. The player with the Hope avatar is trying to demoralize. There is no non-cult scum. In fact, I'd sooner believe that there is only one cult, and Albert and kinetic are working together -- though Mr. Flay did mention the game was double-cult.
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Post Post #1955 (isolation #88) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:19 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Yosarian2 wrote:I was trying to think if there is a way we can simulclaim, but with this rule:

Mr. Flay wrote:
  • No strong cryptography or steganography in this game thread. Questions about what qualifies should be directed to me by PM.


  • I'm thinking probably not.

    There is definitely a way, but as Seraphim has already "breadcrumbed" it's not so relevant.
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    Post Post #2096 (isolation #89) » Sun Jul 03, 2011 4:40 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    springlullaby wrote:@ML, why did you target Yosarian last night, when your scumlist of yesterday did not include him?
    I think it's pretty clear why ML targeted him. Recruitment protection.

    I don't think Seraphim would have been recruited during night 2, because he was already at risk of being lynched/vigged for what looked like an ability conflict.

    DrippingGoofball wrote:Kinetic tried to frame me and failed.
    < plausible


    Next up, Porochaz tunneled on me and nothing else. He was Kinetic's recruit. By tunneling on me, he gave away that the Kinetic cult is after me.
    < plausible

    They really have a bee in their bonnet about ME.
    < it's more likely you were just a "mis"lynch

    Which means that there is definitely ONE (and much less probably TWO) player today that is a Kinetic recruit carrying on with the Kinetic-cult plan that I need to be lynched at all cost.
    < no

    But why would they consider you so high-priority of a target if not because they had information that you were a recruit for the other team? Other than that, you would just be another person for them to try to mislynch.

    Also, on which night do you think they tried to recruit you?

    kinetic wrote:Poro was a recruit. At the very least we can agree on that, right?
    The town can. It's nice to see you changing your mind.
    That you continue to deny porochaz as your recruit is still interfering with your credibility.
    You're down by one, you need to outnumber Albert, and you may or may not have evidence that DGb is on Albert's team.
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    Post Post #2166 (isolation #90) » Tue Jul 05, 2011 1:57 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Back and catching up...

    ...

    Battousai wrote:That's L-1 so...


    UNVOTE:
    VOTE: Katsuki

    See you all in the morning.

    Oh.
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    Post Post #2170 (isolation #91) » Tue Jul 05, 2011 2:20 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    DrippingGoofball wrote:
    Herodotus wrote:Back and catching up...
    Oh.


    Twilight catch ups are appreciated.

    In a cult game, I don't think they would be good.

    But I will do this: UNVOTE: populartajo
    because I don't want to give the mistaken impression that the vote I left on him all day was due to a guilty result.
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    Post Post #2214 (isolation #92) » Wed Jul 06, 2011 10:28 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Magister Ludi wrote:I also wish Herod was more active today, I'd like to hear more from someone else I know is town. If the result you got of use to anything in particular, now is the time to say because it could definently change by tomorrow. Who sticks out as scum now that you've removed your vote?
    I partly wanted to be more active too, but I've been hesitant to share my reads or argue over alignments in case the recruiters would use that information. I feel like I'm in a game of outguessing them.

    I'm not going to try to stop Katsuki from being lynched, though I hope no one finds DGb's argument that one scumgroup must be after her compelling. If they are, it's most likely because she is scum from the other group.

    Magister Ludi wrote:And I don't at all have a problem with someone calling for recruitement protection, Herod should be flooding this thread up and down asking for it.
    I do not need recruitment protection.
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    Post Post #2263 (isolation #93) » Thu Jul 07, 2011 9:58 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    It's more like this: I don't want the recruiters to be able to deduce whom I will investigate so they can avoid that recruitment choice.
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    Post Post #2268 (isolation #94) » Thu Jul 07, 2011 11:26 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    I just read Katsuki in isolation, and don't think they are scum. Just a VI.
    Katsuki has said some anti-scum things, such as their recent comment on cobblerfone.
    I think Katsuki is genuinely convinced that they made a real case on DGb, though in fact what they made is a repeated assertion and poorly supported it. It's hand waving meta and a vague assertion that some interactions with the CR's were bad.

    The only problem is their current bout of lurking. Apparently it's due to RL, but it's clearly pro-scum.
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    Post Post #2358 (isolation #95) » Fri Jul 08, 2011 11:11 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Flameaxe wrote:
    springlullaby wrote:Cobblerfone, are you town?


    Why are you wasting everyone's time with this question?
    Spring, you have an answer. Is it what you expected?



    On a related note, even after reading SL 2294, I don't see a complete theory for tajoscum. I think I understand the point -- he treated me and DGb differently -- but are you arguing that tajo and I are buddies?
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    Post Post #2547 (isolation #96) » Wed Jul 13, 2011 11:11 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Hm, I was seriously considering a Springlullaby investigation. Glad I decided against it.

    I like DGb's scumputer. But I would put less emphasis on Day 2. Once I claimed the result, the porochaz lynch was 98% guaranteed, so I don't think the wagon means much.

    Bunnylover wrote:Dislike that we killed ABR off :(. We needed him to counter act Kinetic, but oh well.

    We were going to have to eliminate one of them first and the other second regardless. This is fine.
    Nobody Special wrote:Wait.

    You're UPSET that we, as TOWN, are one step closer to winning? What. The. FUCK.


    Vote: Bunnylover

    Both kinetic and the town are closer to winning.
    IIRC, this is the second time you have found something suspicious that I don't think is reason for suspicion (the first was a Day 1 comment on something that was a hypothetical association tell).

    Bunnylover wrote:and therefore it would be who sent in their action first.

    Do you know something I don't?

    DrippingGoofball wrote:Therefore, I'm quite certain that some Kinetic recruits will be found among the players that voted for me yesterday to support their recruiter's agenda that I was supposed to be an ABR recruit.

    I could believe that.
    We're going to have to consider the possibility that Kinetic recruited you some time after his attempt to lynch you, but that is obviously not as likely as you being town.

    DrippingGoofball wrote:ABR had two recruits. Porochaz, who was cop-caught Day 2 (so culted N0 or n1), and Katsuki, who was culted N1 or N2. One of their recruitment attempts seems to have failed. Porochaz and Katsuki were convinced I was recruited by Kinetic. They were rabid.

    Albert could have been lying, but he said that he recruited:
    N0: porochaz
    N1: katsuki
    N2: ThAdmiral (failed)

    Battousai is coming off as probtown today against the pressure from ooba, and I don't think ooba's claim was useful. I don't think Batt needs to claim anything further.

    Yosarian2 wrote:
    DrippingGoofball wrote:
    Yosarian2 wrote:ML is probably town. I can confirm that he jailkept me again last night.


    How does that make him non-recruit?


    If he had gotten recruited, wouldn't he be blocking the claimed cop or something now instead?

    Anyway, you can't lynch him. He's the guy who's keeping me town.

    I think it's likely that recruits don't know they have been recruited until after they have sent in their actions, so he could have been recruited last night.

    Magister Ludi wrote:Heord, we needs results here.

    Results? Results!

    VOTE: bvoigt
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    Post Post #2548 (isolation #97) » Wed Jul 13, 2011 11:13 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    No quicklynching, please. I have a feeling we have things to accomplish today.
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    Post Post #2595 (isolation #98) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 9:58 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    To be clear, I did
    not
    target bvoigt last night.

    Ludi (and Battousai), are you asking me to claim all of my results, even if they are both innocents?

    I have a pretty full schedule for the next ~40 hours, but may be able to post around this time tomorrow.
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    Post Post #2711 (isolation #99) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:34 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    UNVOTE:
    Nearly caught up, posting to assure the Mod that I don't need a prod.
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    Post Post #2713 (isolation #100) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 5:37 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Lady Lambdadelta wrote:I have yet to have anyone explain to me how my play style CHANGED from D1 to D2.

    You had a near realtime discussion with porochaz, you pressured him, you were talkative
    even after catching up
    , and you showed emotion. That changed. Doesn't prove you were recruited, but the argument is based on a true statement.

    @Tajo: Yes, each scumteam made some effort to get DGb lynched at some point. From the Albert team there were poro and katsuki. From the kinetic team was kinetic. It's *possible* kinetic was distancing (WIFOMing), but I don't think so. He couldn't have had more than 2 recruits, so the risk of losing one - probably letting Albert outnumber him, and putting him at risk of being vigged out of the game - was too high. And there would be little or none of the usual dividends to be gained from getting her lynched because kinetic is already confirmed scum.
    Now that Albert is gone, it's possible kinetic may have recruited her due to the WIFOM, but she was almost surely not a kinetic recruit before D2.
    populartajo wrote:Im getting more and more paranoid about Hero and I dont like it.
    :?:
    Could I get the longer version of this? Do you think I'm cult, and if so, why?

    bunnylover wrote:Also Ooba is right in that it is a cult tell if both cult team want you dead.
    :?

    Magister Ludi wrote:"Fun fact: I targeted Herodotus on nights 2 and 3."

    Hold the phone gentlemen, this man has to be now confirmed town!!

    Is this sarcasm? I can't tell.

    I'm caught up and have reads. I'm not sure whether to share them.
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    Post Post #2717 (isolation #101) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 8:40 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Bunnylover wrote:@Hero: Did you not read anything down from that?

    Did you not read anything up from my quote?
    #2 was such awful reasoning that I may start taking to take seriously DGb's idea that all the scum are desperate to lynch her.
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    Post Post #2758 (isolation #102) » Mon Jul 18, 2011 5:03 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Nobody Special wrote:Just a thought; no idea if this will be fruitful for anyone.

    springlullaby was Unrecruitable. Glance at her iso; she was almost taunting both Kinetic & ABR from the beginning. Perhaps she knew this?

    Then, supposing a recruitment attempt was made, and obviously failed, she was murdered.

    Again, I don't see anything to be gleaned from this, but perhaps someone with a better Mafia Brain can do something with it.

    Even if the scum knew she was unrecruitable, there were more dangerous targets to kill due to revealed roles, unless her reads were perfect. I will be assuming the kill was done by a vig for now. Also, individuals who have not already claimed are helping the scum to PR hunt when they speculate.

    Though if kinetic tried and failed to recruit her, that would be great as it would mean he has fewer recruits. I don't see any way to use the information even if we assumed it was true.

    ConSpiracy wrote:
    Herodotus
    – Bad and lurky and used only WIFOMish reasons
    Now that I know you were talking about day 1, I'd dispute that, but it doesn't matter. Not at all.
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    Post Post #2893 (isolation #103) » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:46 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    DrippingGoofball wrote:I believe Darox's claim.

    Doesn't mean he's not culted, but I believe the claim.

    I also believe it. But I suspect that he's town.

    Darox wrote:Actually, additional note, my role specifies violence done in the name of evil.

    So, there's that.

    So you don't prevent town-vig kills? Have you asked for mod clarification?
    There may be a way to use this to our advantage (ie. confirm that the vig is protown).

    DrippingGoofball wrote:@ Herodotus

    Can you confirm or deny seeing anything of Darox the past two nights?

    I was not aware of his targeting me.
    I have not been roleblocked.

    Yosarian2 wrote:if someone could confirm that [Darox] targeted Hero the last two nights, then I would be willing to unvote Darox.

    Particularly on Night 2. The kinetic mafia wouldn't know whether Albert had the ability to kill me, but they would know on night 3 whether they were going to kill me and could have him target me just in case I was watched.

    VOTE: Populartajo
    I don't have much to say about him, but DGb has said plenty.
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    Post Post #2912 (isolation #104) » Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:36 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    populartajo wrote:
    Darox wrote:If only my ability hadn't failed on DGB N1.

    How did you know your ability failed on DGb if you are a doctor?

    ML wrote:I'm thinking this over. If we have enough unrecruitable people claim, and heord investigates each of them down the line to confirm, and we start speedlynching and vigging through the list of non-unrecruitable people, (with other power roles helping out town), does town auto-win?

    Darox wrote:No, because the unrecruitable people start dying

    seems Darox isn't considering being the doctor that could protect unrecruitable people

    Want to know why?

    Because he's not a ing doctor, god

    These two objections (translated into noncaps above) are good.

    Zdenek wrote:I think Tanarin's play day one was pretty suspicious, so I'd be surprised if he was recruited after day one, and, considering the player list, after seeing him play I was having a hard time believing that he would have been a choice for a pre-game recruit.

    You first mentioned him on day 3?
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    Post Post #2930 (isolation #105) » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:07 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    What kind of headway are you looking for? Trying to figure out whether he's scum?
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    Post Post #2932 (isolation #106) » Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:03 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    ooba wrote:I threw out subtlety because you kept dodging the answer..

    Claim: Watcher - Can stalk out a location
    N3 Action: Lot#36 - Merchants-Produce Bank
    Result: I settle in the alley opposite the bank. Nothing seems to happen for a long while and I keep dozing on and off. Near dawn, I spot SL walking across the road to the bank. She is joined by someone on the other side but it's too far away for me to see who it is or hear what they're saying. I see them entering the bank. I doze off again and next time I open my eyes, the street is empty.

    Clearly Batt dodging the answer points to him being the guy who met SL at the entrance (makes sense flavor wise too - Inside man on the bank) and probably murdering her.

    What made you choose the bank as your target?
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    Post Post #2936 (isolation #107) » Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:32 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    ooba wrote:What brought about that question?

    Seemed like a random place to choose, and too convenient that you were watching a place where someone died (but apparently didn't see the killer).
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    Post Post #2940 (isolation #108) » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:24 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    ooba wrote:I would be up for a massclaim.

    Before that, there may be some advantages if you state whether you have watched "me" some time during nights 2 or 4, or you have not. (Obviously some disadvantages too.)
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #2969 (isolation #109) » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:22 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Bunnylover wrote:@Batt: His posting style is basically shrugging off the fact that DGB flip town. Lets all forget how hard I (tajo) pushed DGB lynch. Lets all forget how I (tajo) tunneled and tunneled DGB. Only to have DGB flip town by an unknown force killing her.
    Their isn't any remorse, thinking, or consquences present in his post about DGB flipping town.
    You find that all okay?
    Do you find that townies usually talk about their suspicions of other dead townies?
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #2993 (isolation #110) » Wed Jul 27, 2011 2:05 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Why did some people claim?
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #2994 (isolation #111) » Wed Jul 27, 2011 2:09 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Seriously.
    Slightly less than half of the players supported a massclaim, so Ludi requested bvoigt claim, and
    he did it
    ? And bunnylover went along with it too? We haven't even heard from xvart, yos2, or conspiracy.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #2995 (isolation #112) » Wed Jul 27, 2011 2:24 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    bvoigt wrote:I would prefer to wait one more day before massclaiming.
    Magister Ludi wrote:I prefer we go popcorn style. I choose next bvoigt.
    bvoigt wrote:I am a Cult Doctor. According to flavor, I'm a Catholic priest, and everyone is part of my flock, even if they don't regularly come to church. I can attempt to counsel someone who might fall into bad ways. My targets were DGB on N1, and Herodotus on N2-N4.
    This is scum who is eager to please a townie.
    Also, why would you target me on N3 and N4, after
    Herodotus, on Day 3, wrote:I do not need recruitment protection.

    VOTE: bvoigt

    Also, popcorn is not always the ideal claiming order. It generally puts more-suspicious people earlier, but it also lets scum give their partners breathing space. I suppose in a large game that's not as important as in small, open games.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3063 (isolation #113) » Sun Jul 31, 2011 6:56 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    I can wait until claiming is over, UNVOTE: bvoigt
    but I still want bvoigt to answer my question.

    Also, why would you target me on N3 and N4, after
    Herodotus, on Day 3, wrote:I do not need recruitment protection.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3074 (isolation #114) » Sun Jul 31, 2011 3:08 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Yosarian2 wrote:Why are people claiming? Argh

    I feel your pain.

    But it may also be too late at this point. With half of the players having claimed already, do you think it would be a good idea to continue, or to hold further claims?
    (On a related note, [redacted].)
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3101 (isolation #115) » Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:25 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    @Magister: I gave my results already, in this post on Day 2.

    @Nobody Special: What are your thoughts on Zdenek/Flameaxe?
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3110 (isolation #116) » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:30 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Magister Ludi wrote:
    CLAIMS1. Hiro Battousai
    Vigilante

    2. Bunny Lover
    VT

    3. Father B. Voigt
    Cult Doctor

    4. Cecily "Lambdadelta" Smith
    Unrecruitable Cult Doctor

    5. Paul Cobblerfone,
    Bomb (Kills Killer and jailkeeper)

    6. Spiro Caan,
    7. Flameaxe,
    8. Herodotus Greco,
    Something that includes at least a 1 or more shot Investigation

    9. Joseph "Kinetic" Camisano,
    Mob Lieutenant/Stump

    10. Mr. Sam Ludi,
    Jailkeeper

    11. John "Nobody Special" Doe
    12. Pops "ooba" Seaton,
    Watcher

    13. Doc "Popular" Tajo
    Doctor

    14. Anahito Xvart
    Townie

    15. Yosarian Johnson,
    16. Mr. Zdenek
    50% Something, including an unspecified type of protection


    accuracy ++

    Z, do you feel like clarifying:
    1: Whether your ability specifically provides protection from NK's?
    2: Whether you are told the result of the 50% chance?
    3: If so, on what nights have you been successful?

    @Yos2: the math works differently when the cult has the possibility of recruiting. Even they wouldn't know it if they reach a point where they could win without any more mislynches.

    @Nobody: that doesn't say much. Also, I doubt that your past experience with his type of character is relevant in determining whether Flame has been recruited.
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    Post Post #3138 (isolation #117) » Tue Aug 02, 2011 4:41 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Flameaxe wrote:A massclaim is useless unless everyone agrees to it. The other two who have not claimed are who I see as those people that don't necessarily agree to it. If not everyone follows along, it isn't really a "mass" claim is it? It's not a "everyone who agrees"claim.

    In addition, I won't be claiming until the softclaiming stops. If we want to commit to a massclaim, thats fine. I expect full disclosure in a massclaim, and we have gotten far from that so far from a few people.

    This seems dogmatic but not necessarily protown. Could you justify it in a more practical, applied-to-this-game-in-particular way?
    Also, I think but am not sure that people have miscounted the number of people who haven't claimed, at least slightly.

    Battousai wrote:Yos has been jailkept since N1 so he's out.

    Do you feel that he could have been recruited N0?
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3140 (isolation #118) » Tue Aug 02, 2011 4:51 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    My point is that even assuming one person will refuse to claim, does that eliminate the benefits of massclaim? What are the benefits to massclaiming in this particular game, and how are they lost?
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3142 (isolation #119) » Tue Aug 02, 2011 4:54 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Not sure why I'm asking though, as I'm ambivalent about finishing.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3183 (isolation #120) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:46 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Nobody Special wrote:Does anyone need me to Officially Claim? I think y'all know who/what I am already anyway.

    I don't "know", but I have an idea.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3195 (isolation #121) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:49 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Herodotus wrote:@Nobody Special: What are your thoughts on Zdenek/Flameaxe?
    Nobody Special wrote:
    Herodotus wrote:@Nobody Special: What are your thoughts on Zdenek/Flameaxe?

    Zdenek seems slightly sketchy to me; I'm quite leery of Flame simply due to occupation (shall we say I've had experience with that type of character?).
    Herodotus wrote:@Nobody: that doesn't say much.



    I also support paying attention to xvart. Considering D1, he wouldn't have been recruited N1, but there have been 3 full days since during which he has hardly been mentioned.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3215 (isolation #122) » Sat Aug 06, 2011 8:25 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    I don't think the day one wagon would prevent xvart from being recruited on night 3 or 4.

    @Nobody: Your kills on Andrius and DGb don't make any town-sense. Andrius wasn't at all suspicious (IIRC) and you had made it clear you thought DGb was town.
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    Post Post #3216 (isolation #123) » Sat Aug 06, 2011 8:33 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Nobody Special wrote:I am willing to go with this part of it, at least:

    Vote: Zdenek

    Are you going with the "lynch a claimed vanilla" part or is this based on the "slightly sketchy" part?
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3232 (isolation #124) » Sat Aug 06, 2011 4:45 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Nobody Special wrote:
    Battousai wrote:NS- Why did you kill Andrius?

    Because I am apparently an idiot who can't let a previous game-grudge go enough to read a player properly in a current game. :oops:
    I've experienced that before; someone flips scum in one game, and in the next game you have some instinctual suspicion of them. But you never mentioned him at all?

    Nobody Special wrote:I switched from LLD to DGB because I got to thinking this weird thing that DGB thought I was town, so why would she block me as town? So I killed her.
    Then why did she claim to have blocked you?

    Magister Ludi wrote:Amrun, there is a treestumped cult recruiter still alive, no mafia in this game, sure, claim your targets.
    I endorse this post.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3269 (isolation #125) » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:05 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    ooba wrote:When was the first time that the ML-Hero cult masonary was reviled? Which day?

    Ludi claimed on Day 3. Part of his claim was that he would be informed if I was recruited.
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    Post Post #3288 (isolation #126) » Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:49 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    So I'm mostly in support of lynching Z. But I want to hear from ooba (after his last post, I'm secretly hoping to see the first round of Magister/Herodotus scumteam speculation). And I have a question for Z that I'm trying to figure out how to carefully phrase. (Basically, I'm wondering if there is more information from his role that he isn't claiming.)
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3364 (isolation #127) » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:09 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Magister Ludi wrote:I don't think Hero knows if I am recruited or not outside of his own investigative abilities.

    There's only one way you could know that... :P

    Might it be a good idea to divide the town into groups to prevent overlap between the claimed vigs and between vigging and other actions?
    The vigs could even claim their targets in advance.
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    Post Post #3397 (isolation #128) » Fri Aug 12, 2011 11:56 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Yosarian2 wrote:How about we DON'T TELL THE DOCTORS WHAT TO DO nor ask the doctors what they're going to do? This is not something we shoudl be planning in thread, period.


    @NS: I think it's because your options among those 8 are limited.
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    Post Post #3399 (isolation #129) » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:03 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Yosarian2 wrote:1. Protecting someone from recruit, preventing a recruitment from happening, is much better for the town then you watching Kinetic recruit someone and then us lynching that person tomorrow, and fairly obviously so. The idea that we should waste a protection on you just so you can watch someone else makes no sense from a pro-town perspective.

    I think that applies to Magister too.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3418 (isolation #130) » Sat Aug 13, 2011 3:33 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    ConSpiracy wrote:Oh, nevermind. I didn´t read his last post.
    To be honest, I have been skimming this game the last few pages. It is not very appealing.

    And NS, where are you talking about with keep using that word? It's like the first time I mentioned it.

    http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0003786/quotes
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    Post Post #3420 (isolation #131) » Sat Aug 13, 2011 3:41 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    I think amrun means conspiracy is scummy for complaining.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3428 (isolation #132) » Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:55 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Batt and Nobody, I guess one of you killed ooba?
    Ooba was on Batt's list, so let's hear about this.
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    Post Post #3436 (isolation #133) » Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:35 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Amrun wrote:ConSpiracy is cult though. Just sayin.

    You don't have a suspect that you are much more certain is scum?
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3443 (isolation #134) » Wed Aug 17, 2011 4:28 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    ConSpiracy wrote:Amrun, you are wrong.
    Herodotus, what are you on to with your last question?

    If I was in Amrun's position, I would have protected someone last night who was a bad target for a protown vig. Then with only one kill from two non-overlapping vigs, I would think that one of the vigs had tried to kill my target. That would make me think that vig was scum.
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    Post Post #3445 (isolation #135) » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:26 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    I missed/forgot this paragraph:
    Amrun wrote:Also I'm really sorry I guessed wrong last night; I protected magister ludi but considered protecting ooba. I was hoping the suspicion on him would be enough to keep him alive. In the end I went with ludi because I was less sure of oobatown than luditown.

    Amrun wrote:I didn't think that even if a vig shot at Ludi it would make them auto scum. Why should it?

    When you saw ooba was the only person killed, did you think that you had probably prevented a kill?
    If a vig had shot at Magister, would you want that kill to have succeeded?

    @Nobody: Why let the success of your action depend on a random choice? Do you think it was less likely that Yos2 would have been JK'ed if he was scum?
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    Post Post #3482 (isolation #136) » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:54 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Yosarian2 wrote:I don't really get why Hero hasn't claimed results in like 4 days or something like that now. He's out as a cop, and it's not like confirmed innocents "keep" that long in a cult game.

    I didn't claim cop, only that I was able to make at least one investigation and took unblocked actions on nights 2 and 3. I was in fact considering claiming more role information today. I want to get an answer to a question before I do that. Also, if anyone prefers I not claim, say so.

    xvart wrote:The problem with Nobody Special is that he almost certainly did target Yos2 because he provided the flavor of not finding him before either Yos2 or ML confirmed it happened which would be risky since ML was playing with the idea of not protecting him. The point is that as cult this would have to have been a collective decision and I don't see any group of cult members thinking that was a good idea.

    Nobody Special had targeted Yos2 on night 1, and would have seen the 404 then, but your point is still correct.

    @Nobody Special: Has the mod sent you any PM's during this game that referred to any sort of private entertainment? (This is not intended as a quote.)
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    Post Post #3497 (isolation #137) » Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:45 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    I was roleblocked on nights 4 and 5, and it wasn't entertainment-based. That should rule out flameaxe as the scum RB.

    There are some encouraging things about my having been roleblocked.
    One is that I don't think Kinetic can recruit any more, or he would have blocked a recruitment doctor. He had up to four chances to recruit before this started, so I think we're down to 10 vs. 4, or 11 vs. 3.
    Another is the flavour information that I will consider. I don't see any reason not to reveal it, as the RB probably has access to it.
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    Post Post #3511 (isolation #138) » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:21 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Cobblerfone wrote:
    Ludi wrote:Cobble, can you explain why you think Flameaxe is a better lynch choice than ConSpiracy?


    Because Flameaxe feels like the "main" scum. However, since Hero seems to have claimed he was roleblocked(?) And the flavor implies it's not Flameaxe. Then the occupation with the most likely flavor is ConSpiracy. (who is a City Councilperson.)

    Why do you believe that Cons is the best flavour match?
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    Post Post #3514 (isolation #139) » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:11 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    I was busy/distracted.

    I agree that a city government person is a possible match, but Cons claimed vanilla and claimed to have visited a location. I think he should claim the rest of his actions. If someone can verify that he has been visiting, that won't prove entirely that he's town but it would prove he wasn't RB'ing.
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    Post Post #3517 (isolation #140) » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:10 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Hero, can you claim the flavor of the roleblock that occured?

    http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p3361532 first paragraph.
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    Post Post #3518 (isolation #141) » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:13 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Also, can someone post a list of people and their claims for me, aswell as when they claimed? I think that the roleblocker is likely someone who dodges the fakeclaim.

    Not sure if it is complete but in my quote from this post is a list. http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p3305874
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    Post Post #3530 (isolation #142) » Sat Aug 20, 2011 3:50 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    I disagree with the order Batt gave. My busyness had nothing to do with dancing.
    A better order might be:
    Teamster
    Mob Lieutenant (yes, kinetic may have targeted me himself, which adds to my hope that he is no longer able to recruit)
    City Councilperson
    Factory Worker
    Bartender

    VOTE: xvart

    @Spiro Cann: Is it possible that claiming more of your actions would convince people that you're town?
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    Post Post #3535 (isolation #143) » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:56 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Magister Ludi wrote:Herod, can you clarify what you mean by listing some of the professions in a list there?

    Those are the profession names that best match what I know of my being blocked.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3539 (isolation #144) » Sun Aug 21, 2011 4:16 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Cobblerfone wrote:What possible flavor does Teamster/Factory Worker/Bartender have in common with City Councilperson for roleblocking? I would think it'd be one or the other.

    Please wait while I copy and paste what the mod sent me into the thread...
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3552 (isolation #145) » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:33 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    I don't like the way Flameaxe is defending himself. It seems to come down to "no one can
    prove
    that I'm scum!" Some people think you are. No one proved that Chrono, Dry-fit, Porochaz, Andrius, Thad, Katsuki, etc. were scum either.
    But Flameaxe isn't my first choice for a lynch. Various reasons have been stated for lynching xvart so far, but the biggest reason for me is that the Day 1 wagon would make him a great Night 3 recruit. Second would be how teamster seems like a role that might be able to keep a city employee occupied.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3557 (isolation #146) » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:02 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Magister was scummy, so you took a shot at Yos2? Even if Yos had died, either as town or scum, I don't think that would have said much about Magister. Not that I'd want you to have killed Magister either, but [SMH].

    I suppose I'm just complaining about poor night choices all around.

    Though on a related note, if xvart flips mafia roleblocker today, I think all the protective roles should let you shoot Yos2 tonight. His defense of xvart yesterday would merit that.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3576 (isolation #147) » Wed Aug 24, 2011 3:01 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    That is L-1, so it's time for the wagon to fade.
    Cobbler, you could comment on whom you will vote after this wagon collapses.
    xvart, I'd like to hear who Conspiracy's buddies are.

    Will get back to this soon.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3590 (isolation #148) » Wed Aug 24, 2011 10:35 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Amrun wrote:Also why would game be over even if cons is town? We have evidence we're not in lylo.

    It's not entirely compelling evidence.

    I suppose that putting thought into the game will have to wait.

    @Nobody Special: It's your turn to divide the town into 2 parts for the vig shots like Batt did yesterday. I hope you will be online in time.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3592 (isolation #149) » Wed Aug 24, 2011 10:53 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Nobody Special wrote:Flameaxe

    This will be interesting.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3626 (isolation #150) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 4:50 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Herodotus wrote:Though on a related note, if xvart flips mafia roleblocker today, I think all the protective roles should let you shoot Yos2 tonight. His defense of xvart yesterday would merit that.
    Yos2 was never confirmed town to me, just someone I couldn't investigate (after assuming he would be shot on Night 1).

    I was hoping the scum would assume I had the same ability regarding Ludi as he claimed to have regarding me, so I never suspected him, though I considered investigating him. I wasn't sure about the strategic value of softclaiming unrecruitable, but figured it would help.

    The cult docs needed to target the vigs after they claimed. Vigs are the most powerful roles. In fact, I was surprised that I was being roleblocked instead of the vigs (or cult docs). It almost gave Kinetic's cult a meta advantage, as I was saying to myself that Yos2 would insist on blocking the vigs.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3627 (isolation #151) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 5:05 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Oh, you should feel good about blocking me. I investigated each of Zdenek and Conspiracy the night before they were lynched. (I wasn't looking forward to having to claim that!)
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3629 (isolation #152) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 5:30 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    Flameaxe, were you a tracker? Your questions about when you were recruited made me suspect that you knew that I had investigated you (which made you look relatively bad).
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3632 (isolation #153) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 6:38 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    But it was Yos2 carrying out the recruitment action.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3634 (isolation #154) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 6:47 pm

    Post by Herodotus »

    You did block him... so ooba wasn't recruited.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3673 (isolation #155) » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:11 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    She didn't mean what she said, she was just trying to provoke your teammates.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3676 (isolation #156) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:30 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    If your N1 shot had succeeded, Katsuki would have been the only living scum going into N2. So don't feel bad.
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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    Post Post #3678 (isolation #157) » Fri Sep 02, 2011 10:46 am

    Post by Herodotus »

    Hm. If kills resolve before recruitment, does the person recruiting need to survive the night to carry out the recruitment?
    Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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