Mini 1185 - Artemis Fowl Mafia Game Over

[Leiskyrie]

Vote: Volkan

for being a muffin.

[Leiskyrie]

*that was meant to say Vollkan

[Leiskyrie]

Unvote, Vote: MehPlusRawr

Silly muffin.

Anyways, nobody really cares about the names of muffins anyway.

[Leiskyrie]

Technically, I am part of the alignment-confirmed masonry too : <

MPR's late confirming to me is a null-tell. I posted before realizing we were supposed to confirm by PM.

[Leiskyrie]

Ok I thought Katsuki was softclaiming an investigation result on vollkan.

Even if that was the case, why would you suggest hammering without any more discussion/reply/claim from vollkan?

[Leiskyrie]

Will reread through vollkan's giant walls at a later time.

Acosmist=borderline trolling/noisemaking which for me is null at the moment.

[Leiskyrie]

Bob is contributing, good enough for me.
UNVOTE:
The "tunneling from one player to the next" is how I play. I usually end up tunneling every player at least once. Now I'm off to figure out my next target.

Except you only voted bobsnox and listed a rather half-hearted reason that isn't even actually a scumtell.

[Leiskyrie]

And bob, you mentioned but never actually answered my question. Why the mention of a quicklynch? How was it optimal play for town in any way?

@Sleepy: It wasn't tunneling. Seemed a lot more like a rather half-hearted vote, in my opinion.

Unvote

[Leiskyrie]

vote: Sleepy

[Leiskyrie]

[quote="vollkan

vote: Sleepy

Reason?[/quote]

I mentioned it in my last post, but I feel his voting of bob was off in that he was not really pressuring bob either.

Mod: I'll V/LA until the 14th

[Leiskyrie]

EDBWOP: tag fail...

[Leiskyrie]

Uh...internet keeps disconnecting so I can't go back and read what's been happening.

But

unvote

for now due to claim.

[Leiskyrie]

Lol... was no one concerned that I didn't claim? I guess i can do it now.

Artemis Fowl

LOL BWAHAHAHAHA

Vote: DeathNote

Claim: Artemis Fowl Jr. And given that Artemis Fowl Sr. is the sample role PM, WE HAS SCUM

[Leiskyrie]

LLD, Kats and Elli I think

[Leiskyrie]

Vinyaya was mentioned in the first two books...though she didn't actually appear until the opal deception.

[Leiskyrie]

Sorry for the triple posting here. I'm just going back and reading up on what I've missed.
Saw Elli's claim. Guess that leaves LLD and Kat?

[Leiskyrie]

@LLD: Yeah, sorry. I missed that while skimming.

@DN: You're right, I don't believe you.

[Leiskyrie]

So er... DN, you still think Elli, who CC'ed sleepy and thereby revealed that scum have no fakeclaim, is scum?

[Leiskyrie]

Did people really believe LLD's daykill?

Also, note the inconsistencies with DN's tale. First, he says he was trying to draw the night kill because he had a lame role and then he says that actually, he wanted the doc protect as cop. So why didn't he just claim his character, who is minor, and not bothered with it all? Chix certainly wouldn't scream PR to the scum if that were the case...

And where in the flavor does it say we're looking for Artemis?

[Leiskyrie]

To elaborate even further on this, DN says that if the plan had failed, scum would keep him alive. As if scum would have killed him otherwise because of his spectacular play thus far.

[Leiskyrie]

So kiwi be the lynch tomorrow? I'll look into Kwanton later.

[Leiskyrie]

What. The. Hell.

He was a MACHO COP. Macho cop = CANNOT BE PROTECTED BY PROTECTIVE ROLES. WHY FAKECLAIM?

Kat, why? DN says kiwi is innocent.

I need to reread this whole thread...but luckily, Colors mafia has ended, which was where pretty much all my attention was, so I can be a lot more active in this game.

ninja'd by bob, but same sentiment.

[Leiskyrie]

Kat, do you think you and LLD are of the same alignment?

Finished re-reading, but need to think about some things...

[Leiskyrie]

Okay, having gone back, here's what I saw.

D1, MPR posts and says he would be okay with lynching Sleepy "right now" during the vollkan wagon. While keeping his vote on vollkan. Later on, he says he isn't sure that sleepy is scum/the right lynch, hinting that he thinks sleepy is perhaps just demonstrating noobiness, though he adds that sleepy is leaning noobscum (found here)

At that point, sleepy is at L-2. MPR does not vote him, despite finding him scummy. Trying to avoid lynching a scumbuddy, MPR?

Since that, MPR had pretty much ceased to post anything except voting Deathnote.

Vote: MPR

[Leiskyrie]

@Kat: no.

Kwanton has been lurking = potential scum, but I don't usually have that as a reason enough to lynch someone. MPR, on the other hand...

Though lemme go back and ISO Kwanton

[Leiskyrie]

Am I the only one somewhat somewhat offset by LLD's lack of aggression/involvement/scumhunting since the two town members she was mostly arguing with have died?

[Leiskyrie]

If I wanted people to vote you, I would make a case. As it is, I am simply writing an observation. Do I find you scummy? Mildly, but not nearly as much as MPR.

[Leiskyrie]

Well, yes. I lynch people in the order of scumminess.

[Leiskyrie]

Kwanton, flavor details please.

Commuter is possible for Grub I suppose, but it also is generally a very safe fakeclaim for scum...

[Leiskyrie]

Kiwi, where does this confirmage thing come from?

At first, I was still thinking that MPR's response to the whole claim thing is a lot more scummy than Kwanton's, but the lack of interest from Kwanton is somewhat suspicious. Who are your reads and why? Surely, if you are town, you would think there are scum on your wagon/calling for your lynch.

[Leiskyrie]

Kiwi, you are not confirmed town. Ever heard of Godfather?

[Leiskyrie]

Was not surprised at Kwanton's flip; was completely shocked at LLD's.
I need to rethink my reads because clearly, they are completely off...

I'm VT.

[Leiskyrie]

was more surprised at Death.

but... Sleepy... and Kwanton... and stuff

oh well. I'm not sure what to make of the NKs over the course of this game but I'm pretty sure we need to nail scum

today/tonight

or else.

What is this? Explain.

[Leiskyrie]

Yes, I am Artemis Jr. I am also a VT.

Still think MPR is probscum. That much did not change from yesterday, though I need to go back and ISO.
Kat, what are your reads? Seeing as you've failed to provide much from the start.

[Leiskyrie]

I did...

[Leiskyrie]

I said I still think MPR is probscum...wasn't that clear enough in my post? Unless you're asking me to choose somebody else.

My thoughts about Kat: in all honesty, I generally have absolutely no problems in reading Kat with absolute certainty, and usually by D2 at the very latest. This is the first time I've ever had to constantly second-guess myself. Going to lean town at the moment, but I'm still waiting for that list of reads...

Elli, please explain why you've called bobsnox obvtown. I'm not seeing it.

[Leiskyrie]

bob, claim.

[Leiskyrie]

I think our votes are best placed on either MPR or Ellibereth. Artemis Sr. is not in this game. I doubt his wife is either. So, I'm thinking we have an odd night SK in Ellibereth. The absence of Artemis Sr plus the fact that Elli claimed VT is why I'm picking him over MPR. It's possible (if not probable) that MPR is scum. I would say we have at least two more scum in a game this size: perhaps one SK, one mafia. But Elli gets my vote for now because there are just too many VTs IMO.

VOTE: Ellibereth

Am I the only one who finds this post terribly illogical?
First of all, how does Artemis Sr.'s existence (or rather, lack thereof) in this game have anything to do with whether or not Angelina is included? This conclusion is without evidence and based purely on flavor speculation.

[Leiskyrie]

I don't actually think that flavor speculation could extend as far as saying that because one character isn't in the game, the other isn't as well. We had extremely minor characters like Vinyaya after all. And after all, elli did counterclaim Sleepy (though at this point, after having examined all the votecounts and doing some minor analysis, I'm having a hard time thinking of elli as town.)

[Leiskyrie]

MPR, I had a case on you yesterday. Nothing that has happened, including your response, has changed any of my thoughts.

[Leiskyrie]

EBWOP: Sorry, was tired while writing the previous post. In case it wasn't clear, by "yesterday", I meant D3, not literally yesterday.

[Leiskyrie]

So do you think we're facing a 2-man scumteam? <- Kat's question I don't see how you can be unsure of whether or not you answered it...

MPR seems to be unresponsive. He never defended against my case or even mentioned it.

this game isn't really doing much. Nobody's explaining votes against me, there's not really anything I can do.

Nothing you can do? No scumhunting? Nothing to add that could possibly help us move along? He complains that nobody explained their vote (well, so far only one person has actually voted while others have expressed the intent to do so) and doesn't have anything to say about anybody else.

[Leiskyrie]

To address the VCA issue, basically I just compiled all the votecounts and colored in town/scum. Just by looking at the wagons, and using probability, I am doubtful about elli. Simply put, I doubt there was absolutely no scum on Sleepy, amongst other things (on a different computer right now and cannot access the document.) At the same time, because I don't have a particularly strong scumread on him apart from that right now, I would rather lynch somebody who I think is more scummy, namely, MPR/you at the moment.

[Leiskyrie]

@Voided: Yes, I was referring to that case on MPR.
Here is my stance: I will not throw away my previous thoughts/read on MPR simply because you replaced him. When I said I would go back and ISO him, I did actually make another post after regarding his more recent play (or lack thereof). I maintain my belief that he/you are scum.

*looks back at iso*

Oh, I'm not focusing on this much...Yeah, he claimed non-consecutive commuter.

This kind of response makes me immediately think of fakeclaim. Not "yes, I/we are a non-consecutive commuter" but " yeah he claimed this"

Now, about Kat's list. That was mostly for curiousity's sake. I wanted to see what Kat was thinking, given as I have mentioned, I have failed to get a decisive read which is troubling me. If I must comment, I disagree with the method of using meta in Elli's case to eliminate him from being scum. However, I agree that MPR/VM is scum.

OK, now for VCA. It was difficult in that I at first considered 2 scum left + SK, but don't know if that is a plausible set-up. I have played in a game with a 2-man scumteam and an SK as well, so it's a possibility. I do find it strange that the SK has not claimed since at this point, it could prevent a mislynch, so I'll assume the SK, if there is one, isn't in danger of being lynched. I will not say that I am skilled with using VCAs, but it still helps somewhat.

Anyways, votecounts that stood out to me (and I'll try to explain as clearly as possible why):

Votecount 1.2:

vollkan (5): Lady Lambdadelta, Leiskyrie, Katsuki, Ellibereth, SleepyKrew
MehPlusRawr (2): AlamasterGM, bobsnox
SleepyKrew (2): kiwieagle, Kwanton
bobsnox (1): DeathNote
Ellibereth (1): Acosmist

From here, I will say that Kat and Elli are not scum together. Do not believe there would be 3 scum piled on vollkan in a row.

Votecount 1.3:

vollkan (5): Lady Lambdadelta, Leiskyrie, Katsuki, Ellibereth, MehPlusRawr
SleepyKrew (3): kiwieagle, Kwanton, AlamasterGM
bobsnox (1): DeathNote
Ellibereth (1): Acosmist
Not voting: bobsnox, vollkan, SleepyKrew

There is most likely 10 town at the beginning (though if 3 scum + SK, obviously there is 1 less town.) Anyways, I counted the confirmed town (those that have been revealed), coupled with the fact that I know I am town, which means there are 8 in total. Looking at vollkan's wagon, there are three people whose alignments I don't know. It wouldn't make sense to me for there to be 11 town, so of those three, there must be scum. The only difference with this votecount and the one in terms of vollkan's wagon is the switch between MPR and Sleepy, which to me is null.

Votecount 1.9:

SleepyKrew (6): kiwieagle, AlamasterGM, vollkan, bobsnox, Lady Lambdadelta, Ellibereth, SleepyKrew
vollkan (1): MehPlusRawr
DeathNote (1): Acosmist
Kwanton (1): Katsuk7i
bobsnox (1): DeathNote

Not voting: Kwanton, Leiskyrie

I find it hard to believe that all of Sleepy's wagon was town, even though it is possible. It narrowed down to bob+elli. I do not have very strong scumreads on either, so for now I cannot going to say for certain there is at least one busser or SK on the wagon.

Votecount 2.3:

DeathNote (6): Leiskyrie, Katsuki, Acosmist, MehPlusRawr, kiwieagle, Lady Lambdadelta
Kwanton (1): bobsnox
Not voting: Ellibereth, Kwanton, DeathNote

Now, this was D2 with 10 people, 6 to lynch. Of the people not voting, Kwanton and Deathnote are for certain town. We know that Acosmist, kiwi and LLD are town. If we assume 2 antitown (scum or SK), then there are 8 town in this scenario. Of the 6 people on DN, I know for a fact that 4 are town. The likelihood of there being absolutely no scum on DN is not high; I believe there is at least 1 between Kat and MPR. If 2 scum + SK, then there is definitely scum on the wagon given that 2 confirmed town are not voting.

Votecount 3.3:

Kwanton (5): bobsnox, Ellibereth, kiwieagle, Lady Lambdadelta, MehPlusRawr
MehPlusRawr (1): Leiskyrie
kiwieagle (1): Kwanton
Not voting: Katsuki

Similarly, with 8 town it takes 5 to lynch. Confirmed town on wagon are LLD and kiwi. This means there must be at least 1 antitown, perhaps both, on Kwanton. If there are 2 scum + 1 sk left, then at least 2 out of 3 on Kwanton's wagon must be antitown.

When I was doing the VCA, I tended to assume there was an SK because I've never heard of scum, especially in a game this size, having any vig abilities. In any case, my read of MPR in addition to the VCA (in which MPR had the highest probability of scum given the general technique I used) is why I think MPR is scum. Or rather, it was the VCA that added to the read. Elli was involved a fair bit as well, hence my suspicion about him. I won't use my VCA to determine my voting because I know there may be flaws especially due to the lack of information regarding setup. Thus, I am still relying predominately on reads.

Sorry about the wall of text...

[Leiskyrie]

Voided, you ISOing MPR and defending him doesn't do/change anything. I was looking for a response from MPR, and though you've replaced him, you have no idea what he was doing either (that is, unless you're scum and understand his reasons for not voting scumbuddy Sleepy.) You shouldn't be so much focused on defending MPR as scumhunting.

You ask for my evaluation of you. Well, what I see is that you've jumped in and added pretty much nothing. You asked a bunch of questions including, multiple times, "what is your opinion of me?" to different people, made a summary of null reads, weakly called Elli scum with questioning but without presenting a solid case and spewed flavor speculation. Nothing in there says "TOWN" to me, so my read on this slot has not changed.

Also, lack of voting you is due to our current situation. If 1 scum and SK left, then town is still ok. If there are 2 scum left, then we are in MYLO. At this point, you if town should realize the severity of a mislynch and be directing town in a better direction. However, all I've seen are some walls with little helpful content.

[Leiskyrie]

Answering questions is not necessarily a townread. That's all I have to say.

Now, about Sleepy's wagon. Yes, I do think there is likely a busser or potentially SK. Is that certain? No. I haven't eliminated all chance of Kat scum either.

Not intending on defending others, but just to point out that bob did actually indirectly answer some of your questions. He still is calling elli scummy and has not removed his vote on you. I think that says enough?

[Leiskyrie]

Nearly panicked since I haven't been able to get this site loaded for the last hour and a bit with firefox or IE...

Ok, first things first. Role flavor is that I have made enemies due to my meddling below ground, but that I also have friends willing to help me out. I have to find those who threaten my existence.

There is 1 day left until deadline and bob is saying he'll try posting tomorrow?

Being fairly honest right now, I still would like to see Voided lynched. Elli, how are you finding Voided, seeing as you've now begun jumping to bob. Because from what I can see of your exchange with him, there did not seem to be much development in terms of read.

[Leiskyrie]

Part of it is that perhaps, my initial gut read of MPR's response to being called out to claim was that it was scummy, whereas I thought Kwanton's was more town. I cannot shake off the feeling of MPRscum.

If 2 scum left, we are in MYLO. Mislynch, and town loses.
If 1 scum left, then the situation is better in that we still have tomorrow.
If 1 scum and SK left, it's the same.

Basically, worst case scenario, which I will assume for now, is that it's currently MYLO.

[Leiskyrie]

Huh. New realization.

If there are 2 scum left, Voided is scum.
It isn't guaranteed, though, because of the possibility of an SK + 1 scum combination.

[Leiskyrie]

Sorry, I meant that it's LYLO if there are two scum. I got my terms mixed up...

Yes, 5 hours left. I'm trying to sort things out in my head.

[Leiskyrie]

Oh, that was when I was thinking if bob is town. Scum would have hammered immediately then.

I realize the error in that now...

[Leiskyrie]

If bob is town and MPR town.
Scum would have entered and hammered immediately if there are 2 of them left.
Like I said, the error in that theory was that I forgot about the fact that bob would have to be town too for that to be true...

[Leiskyrie]

Likelihood of 1 scum + SK? Not high. I've played in a mini game with this setup before, but both scum were powerful. Sleepy flipped goon, so I doubt there's only 1 scum left.

[Leiskyrie]

But what's your thinking behind "if there's 2 scum left, Voided is scum?"

[Leiskyrie]

Seriously guys, it's almost deadline.

[Leiskyrie]

If there are 2 scum left, Voided is scum.
It isn't guaranteed, though, because of the possibility of an SK + 1 scum combination.
and Oh Lei I get it.

Oh, were you just re-iterating what I had written?

[Leiskyrie]

Vote: Voided

Still going to go with my gut.

[Leiskyrie]

I believe it's another hour and twenty minutes?

[Leiskyrie]

I actually still want to hear from bob, but I don't think it's likely he'll reappear

[Leiskyrie]

@mod: Is there really only 1 vote on Voided/my vote doesn't count?

Hm...bob vs. Voided...

[Leiskyrie]

I hope my gut read is right -_-

[Leiskyrie]

Honestly, that last night was really just up to chance (for us town, anyways.)
And before I forget, thanks to Nexus for modding! Sorry about the lack of activity though...

Comments:
1) I'm disappointed with myself for not trying harder to derail Kwanton when I had a slight townread on him and getting MPR lynched instead.
2) Would've liked to see the town PRs play out; too bad they mostly died
3) Upon reading the dead QT, I have to say that if the Deathnote situation were to happen again in another game, I would still choose to lynch. There was no logic in his play whatsoever, whether the purpose was to draw NK or doc protect. The doctor had already died, and being a Macho Cop meant that he can't be protected anyways (unless I/the mafia wiki am mistaken.) It was just overall horrible.
4) No wonder I couldn't make my mind up about Kat. You weren't scum or town
5) Didn't actually think scum play was all that strong (bob wasn't bad at first, but towards the end really went downhill) but good job regardless.


I think that's it for now...

P.S. LLD: I would've been pushing for your lynch the next day if you hadn't died. It was mainly due to your Kwanton counterwagon D1 when I thought he was town. ^.^

[Leiskyrie]

Yeah, Voided, you were in a difficult position. I had you as pretty much conf. scum too so it was kind of futile on your part trying to change that, but kudos for trying?

[Leiskyrie]

I want to make a post with the collection of Elli-noises this game. A few that come to mind are: Bambalusha, omina, garagraa...

[Leiskyrie]

@Kat: 以后呢还是应该试试看能不能两个都抽到杀人角色--会非常gelivable <3

[Leiskyrie]

Well...except me kinda (but probably would've still gone for bob/elli -_-)
Should trust the D3 gut!

[Leiskyrie]

I'm kinda disappointed that scum won...would've preferred Kat winning

[Leiskyrie]

Considering the lack of suspicion on him

[Leiskyrie]

Some stf on behalf of Sleepy too: You had a fakeclaim, why didn't you use it? I guess there was some WIFOM there when I debated elli-scum, but still...

Read DN's PM where it BLATANTLY states that he can't get protected. ABSOLUTELY FAIL TOWN PLAY

ninja'ed: Yeah, voided, I ignored a lot of your walls too...couldn't be helped, MPR was too scummy.

[Leiskyrie]

EBWOP: wtf, not stf